In case you missed it, Musings Marcels batter projections for 2026, and Musings Marcels Opposition Batting projections for pitchers are available to plan your fantasy teams for next season.
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Marcels for Pitchers
A few years ago I engineered a version of Marcels that looked at pitchers from the view of opposition batters. Here are the Musings Marcels Opposition Batting for 2026. Feel free to download them and I hope they lead to success in your fantasy leagues.
Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal sit together alphabetically, making it easy to compare the two. Last season, the Marcels predicted a .205/.267/.319 with a 2.74 FIP for Skenes. He finished with a .199/.251/.307 slash line. His FIP came in at 2.36 and his xFIP hit 3.03. For Skubal, his prediction was .214/.264/.330 with a 2.62 FIP. He actually produced a .200/.240/.319 line with hits two FIPs at 2.45 and 2.66.
They are close again this season, with Skenes at .201/.257/.310 and an FIP of 2.49, while Skubal (who is now past prime) scores at a .206/.253/.323 with a 2.54 FIP.
Logan Webb projects to the most innings, 169.5, just ahead of Garrett Crochet at 165.4. At the 120 innings level, the best runs per 9 IP allowed would go to Skenes and Skubal at 2.44 and 2.90 respectively, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto at 3.18 and Crochet at 3.27.
Lowest OBP allowed goes to Skubal at .253, Bryan Woo at .257, tied with Skenes. The lowest slugging percentage belongs to Skenes at .310, Skubal at .323, and Yamamoto at .326.
Crochet projects to top the K list with 200, followed by Skubal with 193 and Skenes with 185. In pitchers to avoid, Jake Irvin projects to once again lead the majors in HR with a projection of 27. Charlie Morton and Gavin Williams would be he walk kings 62. Webb beats out Kyle Freeland with 171 hits allowed to 161 for Freeland. (Webb is projected to throw 34 more innings.)
I hope you find these useful.
2026 Musings Marcels
With the end of the 2025 season brings about predictions for the 2026 season with the Musings Marcels. This is the Baseball Musings implementation of the Tom Tango prediction system. The system is very basic, very simple to calculate, and tends to be accurate. Some readers reported fantasy success with the Marcels, so feel free to download the spreadsheet.
The Marcels provide a glimpse into who might wind up the leaders in the various offensive categories. Aaron Judge projects to lead the majors by a wide margin over Juan Soto .426 to .398. Roman Anthony, going into his second season at seasonal age 22 projects to sixth place at .374. Yordan Alvarez and Ronald Acuna Jr. also should do well if they stay healthy.
Judge also tops the slugging projections at .628 to .605 for Shohei Ohtani. Nick Kurtz made a big impression in his rookie year, and comes in third at .563.
The Marcels show low batting averages continuing, with Luis Arraez projected to lead the NL and the majors with a .305 mark, while Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. tie for the AL lead at .302. They are the only three players projecting to hit over .300. I hope that proves to be wrong and a number of players collect a ton of hits.
As for hits, Arraez tops the list at 171 with Witt right behind him at 168. Only 39 off Arraez’s hits project to fall into the extra-base category with Witt getting 67 of those. Witt’s 36 doubles would be second to the 39 projected for Jarren Duran. Freddie Freeman, the active career leader in doubles with 547 doesn’t look like he’ll reach 600 this season as he projects to 35.
Corbin Carroll might be the only batter to reach double digits, projecting to 12. Durran comes in second with nine, while Witt is tied for fourth with seven.
The home run totals seem low as well, with Judge and Ohtani tying with 44 each. Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber also tie for third with 39 each. Soto rounds out the top five with 34.
Four of the home run leaders top the projected walk list, as pitchers tend to be careful with that group. Soto tops the list with 107 BB, followed by Judge with 104, Schwarber with 92, and Ohtani with 82.
Runs and RBI are tougher to predict, as they are very team dependent. Judge tops the RBI list with 103, with Schwarber behind him at 98. Ohtani, the leadoff hitter, scores 113 runs, with Judge second at 106. Even though we think of speedy table setters as high run players, a lot of the top run scorers got there with power.
Have fun with these, and I hope they help you win your fantasy league.
2025 NLDS Preview, Dodgers Versus Phillies
The Dodgers head to Philadelphia for the middle seed version of the NLDS. The Phillies won the NL East easily. The Dodgers were usually in first place during the season, with the Padres sneaking into the top slot int he NL West once in a while. The Dodgers are attempting to become the first team this century to repeat as World Series Champions.
Here is a comparison of the team offenses:
| 2025 NL Ranks | Dodgers | Phillies |
| Runs per Game | 5.09 (1st) | 4.80 (5th) |
| Batting Average | .253 (3rd) | .258 (1st) |
| On-Base Average | .327 (3rd) | .328 (2nd) |
| Slugging Percentage | .441 (1st) | .431 (3rd) |
| Home Runs | 244 (1st) | 212 (5th) |
| Stolen Base Percentage | 77.9 (4th) | 80.5 (3rd) |
| BABIP | .289 (12th) | .303 (2nd) |
The Phillies generate a lot of hits, the Dodgers a lot of home runs. The 32 extra homers was a big part of the 47 run difference between the two teams. That said, the two teams boast the two best home run hitters in the NL. Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies hit 56 dingers, with Shohei Ohtani right behind at 55. Ohtani ranked as the better power hitter, however, as he led the NL in extra-base hits and total bases, and beat Schwarber in slugging percentage by 59 points.
Note that the Phillies runs per game underperformed their averages. They hit fine situationally, but their lineup construction may have caused the problem. The top three batting slots did a great job of getting on base, but the number four hitters slugged just .408. On top of that, the biggest power slot was the two hole, but number nine hitters got on base at just a .307 clip. They probably would have ranked a tiny bit higher with a better lineup.
Here is the pitching and defense comparison:
| 2025 NL Ranks | Dodgers | Phillies |
| Runs Allowed per Game | 4.22 (7th) | 4.00 (4th) |
| Earned Run Average | 3.95 (8th) | 3.79 (4th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.4 (1st) | 9.2 (2nd) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.5 (12th) | 2.7 (2nd) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 24.3 (6th) | 24.6 (7th) |
| Defensive Efficiency | .704 (6th) | .691 (10th) |
It’s odd to see the Dodgers rank low in so many pitching categories, but they get a lot of leading the NL in strikeout rate. The Dodgers limit hits in two ways, with the high K rate and the high defensive efficiency. The Phillies, however, are very close in Ks, but much better at keeping batters off base by limiting walks. They are not as good at turning batted balls into outs.
This looks like a pretty even series. Both offenses hit, get on base, and power the ball. Both teams do a similar job of limiting runs, the Dodgers limiting hits and the Phillies limiting walks. The Dodgers advantage in offense is pretty much matched by the Phillies advantage in pitching and defense. Both teams use hitters that are capable of homering in a low scoring game.
I give the Phillies a very slight edge, mostly due to home field advantage. I see them as having a .52 probability of winning their NLDS.
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.318, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.307, 0.718 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Chris Paddack.
- 0.285, 0.680 — Manny Machado batting vs. Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.284, 0.670 — Bryce Johnson batting vs. Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.284, 0.685 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Patrick Corbin.
- 0.284, 0.684 — Jackson Merrill batting vs. Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.281, 0.676 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.281, 0.681 — Steven Kwan batting vs. Patrick Corbin.
- 0.280, 0.686 — Masataka Yoshida batting vs. Chris Paddack.
- 0.278, 0.690 — Jeremy Pena batting at Samuel Aldegheri.
All games start at approximately 3 PM EDT Sunday afternoon. I suspect, with the Padres set in their playoff position, a number of veterans get a day off before the wild card round.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.318, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.307, 0.718 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Chris Paddack.
- 0.265, 0.704 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Cole Ragans.
- 0.270, 0.701 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Brady Basso.
- 0.268, 0.699 — Trea Turner batting vs. Simeon Woods Richardson.
- 0.240, 0.698 — Miguel Andujar batting at Freddy Peralta.
- 0.278, 0.690 — Jeremy Pena batting at Samuel Aldegheri.
- 0.270, 0.687 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Kyle Leahy.
- 0.280, 0.686 — Masataka Yoshida batting vs. Chris Paddack.
- 0.284, 0.685 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Patrick Corbin.
Arraez and Gonzalez stand as the unanimous double down picks for the last day of the season.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.314, 0.733 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.307, 0.718 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Chris Paddack.
- 0.301, 0.728 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Michael Wacha.
- 0.300, 0.703 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Tomoyoki Sugano.
- 0.299, 0.686 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
- 0.298, 0.697 — Aaron Judge batting vs. Tomoyoki Sugano.
- 0.295, 0.704 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
- 0.295, 0.675 — Christian Koss batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
- 0.290, 0.675 — Heliot Ramos batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
- 0.285, 0.720 — Miguel Andujar batting at Robert Gasser.
- 0.285, 0.681 — Cody Bellinger batting vs. Tomoyoki Sugano.
It looks like a pretty good day for the Yankees offense as they try to at least keep pace with Toronto. Paul Goldschmidt was just off the list.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.314, 0.733 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.301, 0.728 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Michael Wacha.
- 0.285, 0.720 — Miguel Andujar batting at Robert Gasser.
- 0.307, 0.718 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Chris Paddack.
- 0.295, 0.704 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
- 0.300, 0.703 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Tomoyoki Sugano.
- 0.298, 0.697 — Aaron Judge batting vs. Tomoyoki Sugano.
- 0.270, 0.693 — Jake Mangum batting at Trey Yesavage.
- 0.283, 0.691 — Alec Bohm batting vs. Mick Abel.
- 0.283, 0.690 — Masataka Yoshida batting vs. Chris Paddack.
Arraez and Wilson are the most picked hitters by the NN this season. They are the consensus double down picks on Saturday.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.312, 0.717 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
- 0.306, 0.719 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Casey Mize.
- 0.304, 0.688 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.303, 0.681 — Christian Koss batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.300, 0.682 — Heliot Ramos batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.294, 0.702 — Jeremy Pena batting at Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.290, 0.722 — Miguel Andujar batting at Quinn Priester.
- 0.283, 0.658 — Jerar Encarnacion batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.282, 0.654 — Wilmer Flores batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.280, 0.657 — Rafael Devers batting vs. German Marquez.
It looks like a good day for the Giants as they host the Rockies. Note that as this is the last weekend of the season and most teams are eliminated from the playoffs, expect the veterans to get some days off. Hoerner might play as he might try to push his BA, at .299, over .300 for the season.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.290, 0.722 — Miguel Andujar batting at Quinn Priester.
- 0.306, 0.719 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Casey Mize.
- 0.312, 0.717 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
- 0.261, 0.705 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Noah Cameron.
- 0.269, 0.704 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Zac Gallen.
- 0.294, 0.702 — Jeremy Pena batting at Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.272, 0.694 — Jake Mangum batting at Shane Bieber.
- 0.271, 0.693 — Chandler Simpson batting at Shane Bieber.
- 0.268, 0.692 — Yandy Diaz batting at Shane Bieber.
- 0.276, 0.690 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting vs. Adrian Houser.
Andujar is unlikely to start as Priester is a RHP. Hoerner and Gonzalez comes in as the consensus double down pair. The Cubs play this afternoon.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.333, 0.705 — Dominic Canzone batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.331, 0.710 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.323, 0.703 — Julio Rodriguez batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.308, 0.690 — Victor Robles batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.302, 0.712 — Chandler Simpson batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.301, 0.665 — Jorge Polanco batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.299, 0.707 — Jake Mangum batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.297, 0.710 — Yandy Diaz batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.296, 0.701 — Alec Bohm batting vs. Janson Junk.
- 0.293, 0.713 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Louie Varland.
The Mariners just clinched the division, and they are in an excellent spot for a first round bye. It’s not clear if they give the regulars a day off, or if they keep pushing for the top slot in the American League, as they are one game behind the Yankees and Blue Jays. Maybe it’s a day to go with the Rays.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.278, 0.716 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Framber Valdez.
- 0.293, 0.713 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Louie Varland.
- 0.302, 0.712 — Chandler Simpson batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.297, 0.710 — Yandy Diaz batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.272, 0.710 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Braxton Ashcraft.
- 0.331, 0.710 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.299, 0.707 — Jake Mangum batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.333, 0.705 — Dominic Canzone batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.323, 0.703 — Julio Rodriguez batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.296, 0.701 — Alec Bohm batting vs. Janson Junk.
It’s almost an inverted list compared to the Log5 standings. Naylor and Simpson tie for the consensus top pick. Wilson is three for six with no Ks and no BBs in his brief career against Valdez.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.317, 0.705 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.312, 0.692 — Dominic Canzone batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.309, 0.698 — Julio Rodriguez batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.300, 0.691 — Victor Robles batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.288, 0.708 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.286, 0.658 — Jorge Polanco batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.284, 0.683 — Daylen Lile batting at Bryce Elder.
- 0.283, 0.713 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Chad Patrick.
- 0.282, 0.700 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Max Scherzer.
- 0.281, 0.695 — Jeremy Pena batting at Luis Severino.
It looks like a good night for the Mariners against the Rockies as Seattle can clinch the AL West title with a victory or an Astros loss. Naylor is a rare low strikeout slugger, so I’m not surprised to see him at the top of the list.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.283, 0.713 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Chad Patrick.
- 0.256, 0.709 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Hunter Brown.
- 0.288, 0.708 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.317, 0.705 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.282, 0.700 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Max Scherzer.
- 0.309, 0.698 — Julio Rodriguez batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.281, 0.695 — Jeremy Pena batting at Luis Severino.
- 0.246, 0.694 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Paul Skenes.
- 0.275, 0.693 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Jonah Tong.
- 0.312, 0.692 — Dominic Canzone batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
Naylor and Arraez both own decent hit streaks at the moment. Naylor is the consensus top pick, with Witt the consensus double down pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.300, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.296, 0.683 — Josh Jung batting vs. Zebby Matthews.
- 0.294, 0.692 — Andy Pages batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.286, 0.691 — Alec Burleson batting at Logan Webb.
- 0.286, 0.678 — Luke Keaschall batting at Patrick Corbin.
- 0.286, 0.699 — Jake Mangum batting at Dean Kremer.
- 0.286, 0.699 — Chandler Simpson batting at Dean Kremer.
- 0.284, 0.673 — Hyeseong Kim batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.284, 0.701 — Yandy Diaz batting at Dean Kremer.
- 0.283, 0.683 — Shohei Ohtani batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
Freeman owns a six for 19 against Pfaadt in their careers with one walk and three strikeouts. That would be an actual hit average of .300!
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.266, 0.711 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Cristian Javier.
- 0.278, 0.709 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Bruce Zimmermann.
- 0.300, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.284, 0.701 — Yandy Diaz batting at Dean Kremer.
- 0.286, 0.699 — Chandler Simpson batting at Dean Kremer.
- 0.286, 0.699 — Jake Mangum batting at Dean Kremer.
- 0.271, 0.696 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Samuel Aldegheri.
- 0.245, 0.694 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Johan Oviedo.
- 0.276, 0.692 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. David Peterson.
- 0.294, 0.692 — Andy Pages batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
It’s a very low probability day. Freeman stands at the consensus top pick, while Simpson is the consensus double down choice. Arraez extended his hit streak to eleven games on Monday as the Padres clinched a wild card slot.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.268, 0.677 — Alec Burleson batting at Justin Verlander.
- 0.261, 0.669 — Brendan Donovan batting at Justin Verlander.
- 0.258, 0.651 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
- 0.256, 0.643 — Christian Koss batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
- 0.255, 0.662 — Ivan Herrera batting at Justin Verlander.
- 0.252, 0.643 — Heliot Ramos batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
- 0.249, 0.651 — Drake Baldwin batting vs. MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.247, 0.656 — Ronald Acuna Jr. batting vs. MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.245, 0.638 — Thomas Saggese batting at Justin Verlander.
- 0.242, 0.625 — Jerar Encarnacion batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
The schedule holds just three games today with Verlander making the penultimate start of his career? The better Cardinals hitters look good against him.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.268, 0.677 — Alec Burleson batting at Justin Verlander.
- 0.222, 0.674 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Freddy Peralta.
- 0.261, 0.669 — Brendan Donovan batting at Justin Verlander.
- 0.255, 0.662 — Ivan Herrera batting at Justin Verlander.
- 0.247, 0.656 — Ronald Acuna Jr. batting vs. MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.249, 0.651 — Drake Baldwin batting vs. MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.258, 0.651 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
- 0.237, 0.650 — Daylen Lile batting at Chris Sale.
- 0.240, 0.644 — Michael Harris II batting vs. MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.218, 0.644 — Jackson Chourio batting at Nick Pivetta.
It’s a low day for high probabilities. Burleson and Donovan stand as the consensus double down picks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.290, 0.692 — Alec Bohm batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.288, 0.679 — Luis Rengifo batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.288, 0.719 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Jameson Taillon.
- 0.287, 0.670 — Nolan Schanuel batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.285, 0.722 — Jacob Wilson batting at Mike Burrows.
- 0.281, 0.690 — Jackson Chourio batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.279, 0.671 — Harrison Bader batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.278, 0.669 — Brandon Marsh batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.277, 0.656 — Carter Kieboom batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.277, 0.680 — Sal Frelick batting at Matthew Liberatore.
It looks like a good day for the Phillies offense. Rodriguez owns high K and BB rates, but allows home runs and a high BABIP. Bohm walks infrequently with a moderate K rate, so it should be a good matchup.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.285, 0.722 — Jacob Wilson batting at Mike Burrows.
- 0.288, 0.719 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Jameson Taillon.
- 0.270, 0.704 — Luis Arraez batting at Sean Burke.
- 0.272, 0.695 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Connelly Early.
- 0.276, 0.695 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Connelly Early.
- 0.264, 0.694 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Trey Yesavage.
- 0.290, 0.692 — Alec Bohm batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.272, 0.690 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Connelly Early.
- 0.281, 0.690 — Jackson Chourio batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.265, 0.686 — Nico Hoerner batting at Andrew Abbott.
- 0.271, 0.686 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Michael Wacha.
Andujar likely does not start against the righty Taillon, otherwise he would be the consensus top pick. That makes Wilson the top consensus pick, followed by Bohm. Note that yesterday, Wilson was the top pick and collected the Athletics’ only hit against the Pirates.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.302, 0.689 — Luis Rengifo batting at German Marquez.
- 0.301, 0.680 — Nolan Schanuel batting at German Marquez.
- 0.299, 0.706 — Amed Rosario batting at Tomoyoki Sugano.
- 0.299, 0.703 — Jackson Chourio batting at Miles Mikolas.
- 0.296, 0.728 — Jacob Wilson batting at Bubba Chandler.
- 0.295, 0.698 — Aaron Judge batting at Tomoyoki Sugano.
- 0.294, 0.694 — Sal Frelick batting at Miles Mikolas.
- 0.292, 0.719 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Javier Assad.
- 0.292, 0.706 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Adrian Houser.
- 0.290, 0.666 — Carter Kieboom batting at German Marquez.
Rengifo started more in September, but hasn’t hit well. Last season he cut down on his strikeouts and increased his BABIP, but was not able to hold that into this season.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.296, 0.728 — Jacob Wilson batting at Bubba Chandler.
- 0.292, 0.719 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Javier Assad.
- 0.299, 0.706 — Amed Rosario batting at Tomoyoki Sugano.
- 0.292, 0.706 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Adrian Houser.
- 0.299, 0.703 — Jackson Chourio batting at Miles Mikolas.
- 0.288, 0.702 — Nico Hoerner batting at Zack Littell.
- 0.273, 0.700 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Shane Bieber.
- 0.257, 0.698 — Luis Arraez batting at Yoendrys Gomez.
- 0.295, 0.698 — Aaron Judge batting at Tomoyoki Sugano.
- 0.294, 0.694 — Sal Frelick batting at Miles Mikolas.
- 0.282, 0.694 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. George Kirby.
- 0.272, 0.694 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Kyle Harrison.
Wilson and Rosario tie for the consensus top picks. It’s once again, it says a lot about the Angels offense that the NN none of their batters in the top ten despite playing at Coors against Marquez.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.307, 0.736 — Jacob Wilson batting at Mitch Keller.
- 0.294, 0.679 — Luis Rengifo batting at Bradley Blalock.
- 0.285, 0.675 — Luke Keaschall batting vs. Parker Messick.
- 0.283, 0.693 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Michael Lorenzen.
- 0.283, 0.655 — Carter Kieboom batting at Bradley Blalock.
- 0.282, 0.689 — Ernie Clement batting at Michael Lorenzen.
- 0.282, 0.683 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Taijuan Walker.
- 0.281, 0.655 — Denzer Guzman batting at Bradley Blalock.
- 0.280, 0.672 — Josh Jung batting vs. Janson Junk.
- 0.279, 0.653 — Sebastian Rivero batting at Bradley Blalock.
- 0.279, 0.711 — Luis Arraez batting at Davis Martin.
The list generated by the program doesn’t have roster status, so if the last team played for was the Angels, the batter gets evaluated against the Angels’ opponent. The original list was littered with Angels batters, but most were removed as they are no longer on the roster. It’s a very weak offense.
Wilson owns a five-game hit streak.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.307, 0.736 — Jacob Wilson batting at Mitch Keller.
- 0.279, 0.711 — Luis Arraez batting at Davis Martin.
- 0.266, 0.705 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Shota Imanaga.
- 0.283, 0.693 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Michael Lorenzen.
- 0.262, 0.690 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Max Scherzer.
- 0.282, 0.689 — Ernie Clement batting at Michael Lorenzen.
- 0.261, 0.684 — Nico Hoerner batting at Nick Lodolo.
- 0.282, 0.683 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Taijuan Walker.
- 0.273, 0.682 — Jackson Chourio batting at Sonny Gray.
- 0.256, 0.682 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Garrett Crochet.
Wilson is the unanimous top pick, with Guerrero the double down choice by consensus.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.325, 0.726 — Xavier Edwards batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.324, 0.711 — Jakob Marsee batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.308, 0.729 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Colin Rea.
- 0.294, 0.677 — Troy Johnston batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.294, 0.680 — Eric Wagaman batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.293, 0.702 — Amed Rosario batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.291, 0.673 — Heriberto Hernandez batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.289, 0.697 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Logan Webb.
- 0.289, 0.677 — Otto Lopez batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.289, 0.705 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. J.T. Ginn.
The Marlins developed a pair of table setters who are very good at collecting hits.
The NN produces this list of batter with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.308, 0.729 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Colin Rea.
- 0.289, 0.728 — Jacob Wilson batting at Brayan Bello.
- 0.325, 0.726 — Xavier Edwards batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.324, 0.711 — Jakob Marsee batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.278, 0.709 — Luis Arraez batting at Jonah Tong.
- 0.289, 0.705 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. J.T. Ginn.
- 0.293, 0.702 — Amed Rosario batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.278, 0.701 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Luis Castillo.
- 0.281, 0.699 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
- 0.289, 0.697 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Logan Webb.
The Cubs have not officially announced a starter, but Rea throws from the right side making it unlikely that Andujar gets the start. He and Edwards are tied for the consensus top pick. Note that there are a ton of afternoon games and no late games today, so get your picks in early.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.310, 0.731 — Miguel Andujar batting at Andre Pallante.
- 0.293, 0.709 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Mason Barnett.
- 0.286, 0.721 — Jacob Wilson batting at Lucas Giolito.
- 0.283, 0.673 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.281, 0.711 — Luis Arraez batting at David Peterson.
- 0.278, 0.666 — Heliot Ramos batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.274, 0.677 — Jakob Marsee batting at McCade Brown.
- 0.273, 0.691 — Xavier Edwards batting at McCade Brown.
- 0.273, 0.654 — Christian Koss batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.270, 0.677 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Justin Verlander.
Once again, Andujar probably does not start against the right-hander. Gonzalez, with a low walk rate and a high K rate, simply tries to hit the ball as hard as he can. He is barreling up the ball extremely well this season, leading to a high BABIP and is a good candidate to extend a hit streak despite the Ks.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.310, 0.731 — Miguel Andujar batting at Andre Pallante.
- 0.286, 0.721 — Jacob Wilson batting at Lucas Giolito.
- 0.281, 0.711 — Luis Arraez batting at David Peterson.
- 0.293, 0.709 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Mason Barnett.
- 0.267, 0.692 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Bryce Miller.
- 0.273, 0.691 — Xavier Edwards batting at McCade Brown.
- 0.260, 0.681 — Amed Rosario batting at Taj Bradley.
- 0.263, 0.679 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Jesus Luzardo.
- 0.274, 0.677 — Jakob Marsee batting at McCade Brown.
- 0.270, 0.677 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Justin Verlander.
Andujar and Wilson would be the consensus top picks in Andujar starts. Wilson and Gonzalez would be the double down otherwise. The Reds game starts at 1:15 PM EDT, so we should know early if Andujar is playing.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.323, 0.712 — Jakob Marsee batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.321, 0.724 — Xavier Edwards batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.319, 0.735 — Miguel Andujar batting at Michael McGreevy.
- 0.307, 0.712 — Amed Rosario batting at Zebby Matthews.
- 0.300, 0.701 — Aaron Judge batting at Zebby Matthews.
- 0.292, 0.726 — Jacob Wilson batting at Connelly Early.
- 0.291, 0.689 — Cody Bellinger batting at Zebby Matthews.
- 0.290, 0.681 — Otto Lopez batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.288, 0.680 — Paul Goldschmidt batting at Zebby Matthews.
- 0.288, 0.675 — Eric Wagaman batting at Kyle Freeland.
I think it says something about the Marlins offense that they don’t dominate a Freeland start like most teams. The Yankees should have a good day versus Matthews. The rookie Marsee owns a .397 BABIP in 178 PA.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.319, 0.735 — Miguel Andujar batting at Michael McGreevy.
- 0.292, 0.726 — Jacob Wilson batting at Connelly Early.
- 0.321, 0.724 — Xavier Edwards batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.323, 0.712 — Jakob Marsee batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.307, 0.712 — Amed Rosario batting at Zebby Matthews.
- 0.270, 0.704 — Luis Arraez batting at Clay Holmes.
- 0.275, 0.703 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Jeffrey Springs.
- 0.300, 0.701 — Aaron Judge batting at Zebby Matthews.
- 0.273, 0.692 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Jose Berrios.
- 0.276, 0.690 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Jose Berrios.
Andujar probably does not start against the right-handed pitcher. Andujar would be the consensus top pick, with Edwards and Marsee tied for the double down choice.
The Braves and Nationals play a doubleheader, so be careful picking from those games.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.314, 0.735 — Miguel Andujar batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.275, 0.673 — Noelvi Marte batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.272, 0.678 — Alec Burleson batting vs. Zack Littell.
- 0.271, 0.690 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Trey Yesavage.
- 0.270, 0.679 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Kai-Wei Teng.
- 0.267, 0.674 — Brendan Donovan batting vs. Zack Littell.
- 0.267, 0.674 — Ivan Herrera batting vs. Zack Littell.
- 0.267, 0.682 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
- 0.265, 0.664 — Austin Hays batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.265, 0.684 — Amed Rosario batting at Simeon Woods Richardson.
Liberatore does throw left-handed, so the platooning Andujar should start today. Note that Yesavage makes his major league debut, so he is being treated having a league average hit average allowed. In his 98 minor league innings he struck out 160 batters and walked 41, so batters do not put the ball in play against him. Yes, he’s savage.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.314, 0.735 — Miguel Andujar batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.271, 0.690 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Trey Yesavage.
- 0.264, 0.685 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Trey Yesavage.
- 0.265, 0.684 — Amed Rosario batting at Simeon Woods Richardson.
- 0.267, 0.682 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
- 0.264, 0.680 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Trey Yesavage.
- 0.270, 0.679 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Kai-Wei Teng.
- 0.254, 0.679 — Nico Hoerner batting at Braxton Ashcraft.
- 0.272, 0.678 — Alec Burleson batting vs. Zack Littell.
- 0.267, 0.674 — Ivan Herrera batting vs. Zack Littell.
- 0.267, 0.674 — Brendan Donovan batting vs. Zack Littell.
Both systems agree on Andujar, and he is the only batter in today’s limited schedule to have a high probability of a hit. Mangum would be the consensus double down pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.346, 0.750 — Luis Arraez batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.321, 0.706 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.316, 0.704 — Manny Machado batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.313, 0.691 — Bryce Johnson batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.309, 0.700 — Jackson Merrill batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.305, 0.691 — Freddy Fermin batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.304, 0.689 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.302, 0.705 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
- 0.298, 0.712 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Aaron Nola.
- 0.296, 0.694 — Sal Frelick batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
Marquez pitched better on the road this season, but not a lot better. Arraez stands 0 for 8 against him with two walks and no strikeouts. Machado, however, is 13 for 35 with three walks and eight strikeouts. He is 13 for 40 PA, a .325 hit average, very close to the prediction here.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.346, 0.750 — Luis Arraez batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.276, 0.717 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Nick Lodolo.
- 0.298, 0.712 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Aaron Nola.
- 0.267, 0.710 — Miguel Andujar batting at Luis Morales.
- 0.321, 0.706 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.302, 0.705 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
- 0.316, 0.704 — Manny Machado batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.278, 0.703 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Will Warren.
- 0.291, 0.700 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Keider Montero.
- 0.309, 0.700 — Jackson Merrill batting vs. German Marquez.
Both systems but Arraez at the top. Note that when Arraez hasn’t walked against Marquez, he put the ball in play. Laureano stands at the consensus double down choice. You may just want to pick your favorite Padres batter.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.343, 0.744 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.320, 0.700 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.314, 0.697 — Manny Machado batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.309, 0.681 — Bryce Johnson batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.307, 0.694 — Jackson Merrill batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.305, 0.685 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.303, 0.685 — Freddy Fermin batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.303, 0.710 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting vs. Tomoyoki Sugano.
- 0.299, 0.727 — Miguel Andujar batting at Luis Severino.
- 0.297, 0.715 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Taijuan Walker.
Blalock, at this point in his young career, is the dream of opposing batters. He owns a low strikeout rate, a high BABIP allowed, and a high home run rate. He does pitch much better away from Coors Field, however.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.343, 0.744 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.299, 0.727 — Miguel Andujar batting at Luis Severino.
- 0.297, 0.715 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Taijuan Walker.
- 0.303, 0.710 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting vs. Tomoyoki Sugano.
- 0.320, 0.700 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.290, 0.699 — Jake Mangum batting at Colin Rea.
- 0.314, 0.697 — Manny Machado batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.290, 0.697 — Jeremy Pena batting at Bryce Elder.
- 0.294, 0.697 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Tomoyoki Sugano.
- 0.282, 0.694 — Yandy Diaz batting at Colin Rea.
- 0.242, 0.694 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Hunter Greene.
- 0.262, 0.694 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Max Fried.
- 0.307, 0.694 — Jackson Merrill batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
Some Padres own a few PA against Blalock, Merrill going four for six against him. Arraez and Laureano stand as the consensus double down picks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.352, 0.752 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.331, 0.713 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.322, 0.705 — Manny Machado batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.318, 0.707 — Jackson Merrill batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.317, 0.691 — Bryce Johnson batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.313, 0.695 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.313, 0.696 — Freddy Fermin batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.313, 0.736 — Miguel Andujar batting at J.T. Ginn.
- 0.303, 0.673 — Gavin Sheets batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.298, 0.676 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
The Log5 Method does not make an adjustment for ballparks. Gordon, however, in his brief career pitches much worse on the road.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.352, 0.752 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.313, 0.736 — Miguel Andujar batting at J.T. Ginn.
- 0.287, 0.725 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Brady Singer.
- 0.331, 0.713 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.292, 0.713 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Walker Buehler.
- 0.318, 0.707 — Jackson Merrill batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.322, 0.705 — Manny Machado batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.313, 0.696 — Freddy Fermin batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.313, 0.695 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.317, 0.691 — Bryce Johnson batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
The NN does take into account the park, and even with the Rockies-Padres game in San Diego, it’s pick your favorite Friar night. Arraez and Laureano are your consensus double down pair.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.284, 0.710 — Luis Arraez batting vs. McCade Brown.
- 0.281, 0.682 — Nick Gonzales batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.270, 0.674 — Jakob Marsee batting vs. Bradley Lord.
- 0.269, 0.673 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. McCade Brown.
- 0.269, 0.678 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Stephen Kolek.
- 0.268, 0.687 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Bradley Lord.
- 0.266, 0.672 — Steven Kwan batting vs. Stephen Kolek.
- 0.263, 0.665 — Hunter Goodman batting at Randy Vasquez.
- 0.260, 0.663 — Manny Machado batting vs. McCade Brown.
- 0.258, 0.647 — Spencer Horwitz batting at Cade Povich.
Those are really low projected hit averages today, usually someone is over .300.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.284, 0.710 — Luis Arraez batting vs. McCade Brown.
- 0.268, 0.687 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Bradley Lord.
- 0.281, 0.682 — Nick Gonzales batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.269, 0.678 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Stephen Kolek.
- 0.237, 0.676 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Gavin Williams.
- 0.270, 0.674 — Jakob Marsee batting vs. Bradley Lord.
- 0.269, 0.673 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. McCade Brown.
- 0.266, 0.672 — Steven Kwan batting vs. Stephen Kolek.
- 0.263, 0.665 — Hunter Goodman batting at Randy Vasquez.
- 0.240, 0.665 — Jeremy Pena batting at Kevin Gausman.
- 0.236, 0.665 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting vs. Cristian Javier.
Arraez tops both lists, but with a very low probability. Gonzales gets the nod as the consensus double down pick. Note that the Pirates Orioles game starts at 1 PM EDT, so if you are going with Gonzales, get your pick in early.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.321, 0.717 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
- 0.306, 0.688 — Hyeseong Kim batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
- 0.305, 0.692 — Andy Pages batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
- 0.301, 0.694 — Shohei Ohtani batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
- 0.296, 0.682 — Miguel Rojas batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
- 0.296, 0.677 — Will Smith batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
- 0.292, 0.680 — Mookie Betts batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
- 0.290, 0.710 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Logan Allen.
- 0.290, 0.676 — Teoscar Hernandez batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
- 0.290, 0.725 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Payton Tolle.
Freeland pitched very well his last time out, but overall it looks like the Dodgers should have another good offensive night.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.290, 0.725 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Payton Tolle.
- 0.321, 0.717 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
- 0.290, 0.710 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Logan Allen.
- 0.286, 0.708 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Mason Barnett.
- 0.263, 0.698 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Andrew Abbott.
- 0.301, 0.694 — Shohei Ohtani batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
- 0.305, 0.692 — Andy Pages batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
- 0.242, 0.692 — Miguel Andujar batting at Nick Pivetta.
- 0.280, 0.691 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Jake Irvin.
- 0.274, 0.690 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting vs. Jason Alexander.
Romy Gonzalez was just off the bottom of each list and owns a twelve-game hit streak, the longest in the majors currently. Freeman is the consensus top pick, with Ohtani and Pages tying for the consensus double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.330, 0.723 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.315, 0.694 — Hyeseong Kim batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.313, 0.697 — Andy Pages batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.310, 0.700 — Shohei Ohtani batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.306, 0.691 — Miguel Rojas batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.304, 0.682 — Will Smith batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.298, 0.683 — Mookie Betts batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.295, 0.719 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Zack Littell.
- 0.295, 0.677 — Teoscar Hernandez batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.295, 0.701 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Casey Mize.
Even at Dodger Stadium, a Rockies pitcher has the ability to set bats on fire.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.330, 0.723 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.290, 0.721 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Dustin May.
- 0.295, 0.719 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Zack Littell.
- 0.295, 0.701 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Casey Mize.
- 0.271, 0.701 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Luis Garcia.
- 0.310, 0.700 — Shohei Ohtani batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.287, 0.698 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Mitchell Parker.
- 0.252, 0.697 — Miguel Andujar batting at Michael King.
- 0.313, 0.697 — Andy Pages batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.315, 0.694 — Hyeseong Kim batting vs. German Marquez.
Freeman is seven for 30 against Marquez in their careers with three walks and six strikeouts. Ohtani just beats out Arraez for the consensus double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.308, 0.721 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Slade Cecconi.
- 0.290, 0.698 — Nico Hoerner batting at Bryce Elder.
- 0.289, 0.685 — Julio Rodriguez batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
- 0.289, 0.684 — Maikel Garcia batting at Slade Cecconi.
- 0.288, 0.681 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
- 0.283, 0.682 — Victor Robles batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
- 0.283, 0.676 — Daylen Lile batting at Janson Junk.
- 0.282, 0.692 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Cade Cavalli.
- 0.282, 0.684 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Janson Junk.
- 0.281, 0.662 — Dominic Canzone batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
Witt sat Sunday to give his back a chance to heal. It’s an important game for the Royals as they play the Guardians, both teams fighting for the third wild card slot in the AL.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.308, 0.721 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Slade Cecconi.
- 0.274, 0.712 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Garrett Crochet.
- 0.273, 0.709 — Miguel Andujar batting at Yu Darvish.
- 0.263, 0.699 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Nick Lodolo.
- 0.290, 0.698 — Nico Hoerner batting at Bryce Elder.
- 0.282, 0.692 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Cade Cavalli.
- 0.280, 0.689 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Tyler Dollander.
- 0.246, 0.688 — Trea Turner batting vs. Nolan McLean.
- 0.289, 0.685 — Julio Rodriguez batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
- 0.282, 0.684 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Janson Junk.
- 0.289, 0.684 — Maikel Garcia batting at Slade Cecconi.
Trea Turner injured his hamstring on Sunday. He will get an MRI, so I expect he will not play today. Witt is the top pick if he plays, with Hoerner the double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.351, 0.758 — Luis Arraez batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.336, 0.726 — Ramon Laureano batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.323, 0.714 — Manny Machado batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.314, 0.703 — Ryan O’Hearn batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.312, 0.692 — Bryce Johnson batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.310, 0.704 — Jackson Merrill batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.302, 0.707 — Jeremy Pena batting at Patrick Corbin.
- 0.298, 0.675 — Gavin Sheets batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.298, 0.712 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Bailey Ober.
- 0.298, 0.682 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.295, 0.703 — Freddie Freeman batting at Tomoyoki Sugano.
With Witt suffering from back spasms, the list goes to eleven today. It looks like another good day for the Padres at Coors Field.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.351, 0.758 — Luis Arraez batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.336, 0.726 — Ramon Laureano batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.287, 0.718 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Brandon Sproat.
- 0.284, 0.718 — Jacob Wilson batting at Mitchell Farris.
- 0.293, 0.714 — Trea Turner batting at Adam Mazur.
- 0.323, 0.714 — Manny Machado batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.298, 0.712 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Bailey Ober.
- 0.302, 0.707 — Jeremy Pena batting at Patrick Corbin.
- 0.310, 0.704 — Jackson Merrill batting at Tanner Gordon.
- 0.295, 0.703 — Freddie Freeman batting at Tomoyoki Sugano.
- 0.314, 0.703 — Ryan O’Hearn batting at Tanner Gordon.
The two systems agree on Arraez and Laureano as the double down picks.
Note that Sproat makes his MLB debut. I hope he either pitches into the the eighth inning or becomes a whistle blower in a major scandal.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.320, 0.724 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.303, 0.724 — Jacob Wilson batting at Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.291, 0.720 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Jonah Tong.
- 0.287, 0.679 — Alex Bregman batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.283, 0.675 — Rob Refsnyder batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.283, 0.708 — Trea Turner batting at Sandy Alcantara.
- 0.281, 0.671 — Trevor Story batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.280, 0.689 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
- 0.279, 0.675 — Jarren Duran batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.278, 0.714 — Luis Arraez batting at McCade Brown.
Gonzalez makes he way into the top ten again. This is the first season he’s been a positive on offense, mostly due to a low walk rate and a high K rate. That goes along with a high BABIP with added power this season. When he manages to put the ball in play, good things happen. Gonzalez is working on an eight-game hit streak.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.320, 0.724 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.303, 0.724 — Jacob Wilson batting at Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.291, 0.720 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Jonah Tong.
- 0.278, 0.714 — Luis Arraez batting at McCade Brown.
- 0.283, 0.708 — Trea Turner batting at Sandy Alcantara.
- 0.273, 0.691 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Tanner Bibee.
- 0.280, 0.689 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
- 0.277, 0.689 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Tanner Bibee.
- 0.276, 0.687 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Bradley Lord.
- 0.267, 0.686 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Jesus Luzardo.
The two systems are in good agreement at the top, differ at the bottom. Note that Wilson is not tied with Gonzalez. He leads .7244 to .7236. They are the unanimous double down choices.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.345, 0.755 — Luis Arraez batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.328, 0.721 — Ramon Laureano batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.322, 0.716 — Manny Machado batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.314, 0.718 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.308, 0.704 — Jackson Merrill batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.307, 0.698 — Ryan O’Hearn batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.305, 0.697 — Freddy Fermin batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.304, 0.685 — Bryce Johnson batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.295, 0.674 — Gavin Sheets batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.291, 0.677 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting at Kyle Freeland.
It’s pick your favorite Padres day as they travel to Colorado to face Freeland. Opponents are batting .355/.402/.548 against Freeland in Colorado, the highest home BA of any pitcher in the majors this season.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.345, 0.755 — Luis Arraez batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.328, 0.721 — Ramon Laureano batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.288, 0.718 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. David Peterson.
- 0.314, 0.718 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.322, 0.716 — Manny Machado batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.275, 0.707 — Jacob Wilson batting at Jose Soriano.
- 0.283, 0.705 — Trea Turner batting at Valente Bellozo.
- 0.308, 0.704 — Jackson Merrill batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.307, 0.698 — Ryan O’Hearn batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.305, 0.697 — Freddy Fermin batting at Kyle Freeland.
Note that Arraez is just 1 for 3 against Freeland, meaning that he seldom starts against the lefty. We’ll see if that’s true today. Arraez and Laureano are the unanimous double down picks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.300, 0.718 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.286, 0.696 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Logan Allen.
- 0.285, 0.701 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Logan Allen.
- 0.284, 0.693 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Logan Allen.
- 0.281, 0.679 — Maikel Garcia batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.271, 0.683 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
- 0.267, 0.673 — Sal Frelick batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
- 0.262, 0.664 — Junior Caminero batting vs. Logan Allen.
- 0.260, 0.646 — Adam Frazier batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.259, 0.659 — Brice Turang batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
- 0.259, 0.651 — Vinnie Pasquantino batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
There are only six games on tap today, none late. It looks like the pitching matchups favor the Royals and the Rays. Witt comes out way on top, and he is a good pick most days.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.300, 0.718 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.285, 0.701 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Logan Allen.
- 0.286, 0.696 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Logan Allen.
- 0.284, 0.693 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Logan Allen.
- 0.271, 0.683 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
- 0.281, 0.679 — Maikel Garcia batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.267, 0.673 — Sal Frelick batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
- 0.224, 0.667 — Trea Turner batting at Freddy Peralta.
- 0.262, 0.664 — Junior Caminero batting vs. Logan Allen.
- 0.259, 0.659 — Brice Turang batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
On a very low probability day, Witt is the top choice by a wide margin. Rays Diaz and Mangum tie for the double down choice. Neither batter strikes out at high rate, and Mangum walks very little.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.313, 0.732 — Jacob Wilson batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.306, 0.691 — Dominic Smith batting at German Marquez.
- 0.302, 0.720 — Bo Bichette batting at Zack Littell.
- 0.301, 0.723 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Cade Povich.
- 0.301, 0.701 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Aaron Nola.
- 0.300, 0.691 — Heliot Ramos batting at German Marquez.
- 0.299, 0.688 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at German Marquez.
- 0.295, 0.688 — Sal Frelick batting vs. Aaron Nola.
- 0.294, 0.687 — Lenyn Sosa batting at Zebby Matthews.
- 0.293, 0.698 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Bryce Elder.
Wilson puts the ball in play about 86% of the time, and owns a high BABIP. His BA of .315 this season is very close to his BABIP of .320 due to a low number strikeouts and a few home runs.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.313, 0.732 — Jacob Wilson batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.301, 0.723 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Cade Povich.
- 0.302, 0.720 — Bo Bichette batting at Zack Littell.
- 0.281, 0.715 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Shane Bieber.
- 0.277, 0.704 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Caden Dana.
- 0.288, 0.701 — Xavier Edwards batting at Mitchell Parker.
- 0.301, 0.701 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Aaron Nola.
- 0.293, 0.698 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Bryce Elder.
- 0.269, 0.694 — Trea Turner batting at Jose Quintana.
- 0.306, 0.691 — Dominic Smith batting at German Marquez.
- 0.300, 0.691 — Heliot Ramos batting at German Marquez.
For the second day in a row, both systems put Wilson at the top. Arraez and Bichette tie for the consensus double down choice. Bichette is playing on the road, which might give him an extra plate appearance.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!