March 18, 2024

Division Preview, 2024 NL West

The division previews begin with the NL West as the Dodgers and Padres play two games in South Korea this week. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 6.17
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.59
  • Core Winning Percentage: .644

The Dodgers once again rank as the favorite to win the NL West, but they are not as strong as usual. The Dodgers came in at .746 CWP in 2021, 741 in 2022, and 6.99 in 2023. Even with all their resources, it is difficult to maintain a strong team over a long period of time. Players age and/or get injured. Winning means picking later in the draft, so maintaining a farm system gets more difficult.

This year, the pitching injuries pulled down the team. Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Tony Gonsolin all start the season on the illjured list, and the Dodgers can’t use Shohei Ohtani on the mound. The resulting rotation is good but not great.

On the offensive side, there is a lot of value crammed into a few players. This is not a lineup that can hurt an opponent from every slot. The Dodgers do project as the strongest offensive team up the middle, but to achieve that they moved their rightfielder to shortstop.

If any other NL West team is going to make a run at the Dodgers, this is the season to do it.

San Diego Padres

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.06
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.99
  • Core Winning Percentage: .616

It looks to me like much of the negative talk around the Padres off-season was undeserved. They go into the season with the best projected core pitchers in the division. While they may not have lived up to expectations in 2023, the core of the offense is still pretty good. Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. still have good projections, and a rebound by all three would make the projections even better.

On top of that, rookie Jackson Merrill is having a great spring. If his conservative projection turns out to be too low, the offense will be better than expected.

The Padres should be in contention for the division title, especially if the Dodgers lose one of their big guns to an injury.

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.33
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.56
  • Core Winning Percentage: .578

The defending NL Champs received good seasons from their youngsters while veterans Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.rebounded, Marte helping them be one of the strongest teams up the middle in the division. The youngsters are still pre-prime, so the Diamondbacks should expect more improvement from the quartet.

The pitching staff is solid, but there is less upside there. Brandon Pfaat offers best chance for improvement, but even if he lives up to his projection, the offense should be good enough to carry the staff.

If the Diamondbacks get off to a hot start like they did in 2023, I suspect this more mature team will be better equipped to keep that pace going.

San Francisco Giants

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 4.82
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.15
  • Core Winning Percentage: .575

The Giants quietly put together a good, young, pitching staff. Three of the starters sit in the middle of their prime years, while Kyle Harrison and Mason Black have yet to reach prime years. While there may not be a true ace in the group, all can pitch well enough to keep the Giants in the game.

The offense is weak, especially in power. No player projects to at least six runs per 27 outs, the only team in the NL West lacking such a bat. On the other hand, Nick Ahmed is the only poor offensive player on the team. Newcome Jung Hoo Lee gives them an excellent lead-off man, and his projections may be a bit low. The offense could really use an offensive rebound by Matt Chapman.

This team ranks very close to the Diamondbacks, although the Arizona strikes me as having more upside. A wild card is not out of the question for San Francisco.

Colorado Rockies

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.23
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 5.39
  • Core Winning Percentage: .485

The Rockies seem to be treading water right now. They’re inexperienced players tend to be older, already in their prime, so there is not much upside in that group. They also seem to be back in the rut of bringing along pitchers who can’t handle Coors. So they will have a high scoring offense, but give up more runs than they allow. It’s not pretty, and they may be headed for another horrible season in an otherwise strong division.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

  • Los Angeles Dodgers 35%
  • San Diego Padres 30%
  • Arizona Diamondbacks 18%
  • San Francisco Giants 16%
  • Colorado Rockies 1%

I think this should be one of the more competitive years in the NL West in recent history.

March 18, 2024

Wrist Watch

TJ Friedl, centerfielder of the Reds, broke his wrist on Saturday:

Friedl, 28, mostly batted first or second in the lineup last season, his third in the majors. He hit .279 with 18 home runs, 66 RBIs, 47 walks, and stole 27 bases in 33 attempts.

His absence could mean playing time in center field for the right-hand-hitting Stuart Fairchild and lefty-hitting Will Benson, according to Nick Krall, Cincinnati’s president of baseball operations.

ESPN.com

The Reds employ a rather balanced lineup, with the smallest spread between their best and worst lineups based on Musings Marcels projections. The Lineup Analysis tool bats Friedl seventh in the order, making him a bit more easy to replace offensively. Fairchild is projected to slash .239/.323/.414 in 2024, while Benson comes in at .263/.345/.443. Both are perfectly fine with the bat.

March 17, 2024

March 17, 2024

Will You Still Read Me, My RSS Feeds See…

I am 100 years old in base 8 today.

Lately the idea of power birthdays crossed my mind. Mathematically, power birthdays would satisfy the equation z = y^x for integer values of y and x greater than one. So:

  • 4
  • 8
  • 9
  • 16
  • 25
  • 27
  • 32
  • 36
  • 49
  • 64
  • 81
  • 100
  • 121
  • 125
  • 128

These are the birthdays that might be obtainable by a human. That last two have not been reached. (There is some dispute over the 122 year old.)

Sixty four stands out, however, as it is a power of three different numbers, 2^6, 4^3, and 8^2. So to me it’s a much more significant birthday than 65, so it’s good that it has it’s own song.

March 17, 2024

Laid Back Anderson

Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports on Tim Anderson and Luis Arraez partnership in the middle of the Marlins infield. This description of Anderson took me a little by surprise:

Tim Anderson, the Miami Marlins’ reserved, All-Star, one-time batting champion shortstop, had been his typical quiet, laid-back self for the early portion of spring training after signing a one-year deal with the team on Feb. 24. He was taking his time to get his feet under him, putting in extra work in the batting cage and taking groundballs early in the morning to put his hopeful bounceback season in full motion.

Arraez the Marlins’ boisterous, All-Star, two-time batting champion second baseman knew it was a matter of time before Anderson broke out of his shell.

That day was Wednesday. “He talked a lot today,” Arraez said that day, “so I was excited.”

MiamiHerald.com

Anderson struck me as a self-promoter, but it’s possible to be both. The good news is that Anderson appears to be healthy. Here’s manager Skip Schumaker on Anderson’s spring:

“You can tell what it looks like when he’s healthy,” Schumaker said. “He’s fast twitch, and really strong. And when you have your legs, that’s what hitting is. You have to have your legs underneath you. When you don’t have them, it’s tough to hit, and he’s got them now. He feels good — he and [hitting coach John] Mabry have been working hard together. He’s buying in defensively and offensively. He’s a really good Major League player, and people maybe forgot how good he was.”

There is talk in the article about using Anderson at the top of the order, although FanGraphs still has him batting fifth. Arraez and Anderson batted 1-2 on Saturday, and if Anderson’s power returns, that’s a pretty good punch at the top.

Spring hasn’t be kind to Anderson at the plate, however. He is six for 28 with two extra-base hits and no walks. On top of that, he struck out eleven times. So far, his batting eye is not there.

March 16, 2024

Marmol Extended

The Cardinals front office likes Oliver Marmol and extended his contract through 2026. Here is John Mozeliak on the signing:

“We believe that he’s the right person for this job,” Mozeliak said. “And we’re excited to know who will be here for the for the next few years. So it was important to us to get this done. We’re glad it’s behind us and we look forward to the future.”

“Given the fact that the roster we’ve assembled we believe is going to be competitive, has a chance to be exciting, and we just didn’t want something — if we have a stumble or get off to a slow start, all of the sudden, everybody’s looking over their shoulders,” Mozeliak said. “It’s just not fair to everybody involved. So the timing of this, as we started thinking more and more about it, had to be dealt with now and not something midseason or at the end of the year.”

ESPN.com

The offense projects to be much better than last season, and that gives Marmol a good chance to look good as the team improves. Of course, if the team finishes last again, Cardinals might be stuck with a contract they don’t want.

March 15, 2024

McAndrew Passes

Former Mets pitcher Jim McAndrew died Thursday:

A right-hander at the back end of the Mets rotation from 1968-73, McAndrew started one of the most significant games in franchise history: a win over Montreal in September 1969 that put the long downtrodden team into first place for the first time in the franchise’s eight seasons.

NYPost.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

I watched that game in1969, although I don’t remember much about it. I remember a balk being important in the game. I thought it came late, but it came in the fifth inning and allowed the Mets to tie the game at two. It remained at that score until the bottom of the twelfth, when Ken Boswell singled home the winning run. McAndrew went 11 innings, walking five and striking out seven, but only allowing four hits.

The walks in that game were unusual for McAndrew as his strength as a pitcher was his 2.5 BB per 9 IP. His best season came in 1972 when he posted an 11-8 record with a 2.80 ERA, good for a 3.5 rWAR. That represented more than half the WAR he would earn in his career.

March 15, 2024

Plummer Passes

Catcher and manager Bill Plummer died Tuesday. He backed up Johnny Bench on the Reds:

Plummer appeared in 324 games for the Reds between 1970 and 1977, including the teams that won back-to-back World Series titles in 1975 and ’76.

“Loved Bill for the person he was and the competitor he showed us on the field. He was always ready to play,” Bench said in a post Wednesday on X, formerly known as Twitter.

ESPN.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Plummer did not hit well, with a career .188/.267/.274 slash line. He struck out 19% of the time in an era where batters struck out much less than today. Given his defensive WARs, he didn’t particularly shine there, either. His best season came in 1976 when he hit .248/.311/.379 and posted a 0.0 rWAR.

He also went 64-98 in his one season managing the Mariners.

March 15, 2024

Team Offense Summary

With all thirty teams analyzed, the Dodgers and Braves come out on top, flipping one and two from last season. The LAT shows the Dodgers finishing first in the majors in runs per game, beating the Braves by 0.07 runs. Note that the Dodgers own a bigger spread between their best and worst lineups, 0.37 runs to 0.32 for the Braves. This suggests Los Angeles may be more dependent on their star players than Atlanta, and more susceptible to an injury causing havoc.

That is pretty much what happened to the Yankees last season. New York, with a healthy starting lineup and the addition of Juan Soto, moves from twenty fifth to fourth. That the biggest jump any team made this season. They still have a high spread, 0.43 runs, so once again remaining healthy becomes the biggest priority for the team. The Cardinals also make a big jump, going from nineteenth to fifth.

There are some drops as well. The biggest one belongs to the Cubs, going from sixth to twenty second. One reason for that would be Cody Bellinger. Musings Marcels uses three years of data to evaluate a player. While Bellinger posted great numbers in 2023, his 2021 and 2022 season were poor. He gets knocked down for that. If he returns to his 2023 level, this will turn out to be a poor prediction for the Cubs.

The Rangers, Rays, and Orioles also show drops. Part of that comes from the young players on the team still getting strong regression toward the league averages. Teams will adjust to these hitters. Some will fade due to that, but some will adjust back. Again, youth brings upside.

On the low end, the Nationals drop from twenty first to last, predicted to finish behind the awful Oakland lineup.

The Reds get my vote for most interesting team in the study. They rank seventh, just behind the Phillies. The spread between their best and worst lineups is just 0.15 runs, indicating their talent is evenly distributed throughout the batting order. In other words, they are loaded with good talent. With youth as well, there is upside to the prediction. If there is going to be a surprise offensive juggernaut, the Reds could be it.

Next week we’ll start to see how things shake out.

You can see the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

March 15, 2024

Cole’s Elbow

There is an unconfirmed report that Gerrit Cole does not need Tommy John surgery:

Cole has been advised to rest and undergo noninvasive treatment, and will be shut down for at least a month, a source said. The Yankees have not given a timetable for Cole’s return.

ESPN.com

A friend of mine suggested the Yankees sign Trevor Bauer. It makes sense if the Yankees are trying to avoid giving big money to a free agent. The Dodgers are paying Bauer’s salary, so the Yankees could get him cheap. If he pitches poorly, he can be released easily enough. If he pitches well, the Yankees have an even stronger rotation when and if Cole returns.

The Yankees have a history of bringing in or back players suspended for domestic abuse. The team was able to get Ardolis Chapman cheap when his personal life made him difficult to move, and they were able to bring back Domingo German. They can probably weather the bad press they would get bringing Bauer on the team, especially if he pitches well.

March 14, 2024

Team Offense, Oakland Athletics

The 2024 series on team offense finishes with the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics finished last in the Majors in 2023 with 3.61 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Mark Kotsay batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 4.35
  • Probable lineup: 4.27
  • Worst lineup: 4.00
  • Regressed lineup: 4.13

The A’s at least appear to have put together a lineup to get the most out of a rather week offense. The LAT agrees on Ryan Noda and Zack Gelof batting one and two, and with Seth Brown batting cleanup. Outside of a decent project for Brent Rooker the rest of the lineup is just an out machine. Four players project to OBPs under .300. They all better be fantastic defenders.

A number of these projections might prove to be off due to inexperience at the major league level. Unfortunately, these are not young, inexperienced players. Most of them are already in their prime years, meaning that the upside potential of youth is not there. The A’s employ players who spent their pre-prime years in the minors because they just weren’t good enough for the majors.

The lineup is so poor, why would the opposition throw a front line pitcher against this team? Somehow getting fourth and fifth starters or bullpen games against this squad seems the right choice, and the front line starters can use an extra day of rest during the season.

Offensively, at least, it’s going to be another sorry year in Oakland.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.

March 14, 2024

Dylands in San Diego

The White Sox traded Dylan Cease to the Padres for four prospects:

The White Sox are receiving right-hander Drew Thorpe, who is the No. 4-ranked prospect in the Padres’ system and No. 64 among ESPN’s top 100 MLB prospects, right-hander Jairo Iriarte (the No. 7 prospect among San Diego’s minor leaguers), outfielder Samuel Zavala and right-hander Steven Wilson.

ESPN.com

Cease supposedly had an off-year in 2023, but his 3.7 fWAR indicates much of that might have been out of his control. Opponents hit for a high BABIP against him, an indication that the defense behind him was poor. I suspect the Padres know they are getting a very good pitcher.

Thorpe pitched extremely well in five starts for the Yankees double A team in 2023. He is just out of college. Iriarte is a high K, low home run pitcher, but he does walk a ton of batters. Zavala chewed up A Ball at age 18, doing a fantastic job of getting on base. Wilson gives the White Sox another arm out of the bullpen.

I think the White Sox did an excellent job of improving via rebuilding with this deal.

March 13, 2024

Team Offense, Chicago White Sox

The 2024 series on team offense continues with the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox finished twenty ninth in the Majors and fourteenth in the American League in 2023 with 3.96 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Pedro Grifol batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 4.45
  • Probable lineup: 4.31
  • Worst lineup: 4.07
  • Regressed lineup: 4.15

Martin Maldonado‘s stats argue against batting the worst hitter eighth. Maldonado projects to a .265 OBP, which is so low that teams rightly think that setting up the top of the order isn’t worth the extra plate appearances for Maldonado. Batting him ninth, a team might also get a few more defensive innings out of the catcher, as in any important offensive situation, the manager will need to remove Maldonado for a pinch hitter.

The lineup construction is fine. The right for people are grouped together at the top, in the middle, and at the bottom even if the exact ordering is not optimal. The White problem is not lineup construction, but a lack of talent. Almost all the power belongs to Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez. Four of the starters project to slugging percentages under .400.

Maybe they turn out to be a better offense than in 2023, but the team is unlikely to make a huge leap. Division opponents Detroit and Cleveland have done a better job of improving their run scoring capabilities.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.

March 13, 2024

Team Offense, Detroit Tigers

The 2024 series on team offense continues with the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers finished twenty eighth in the Majors and thirteenth in the American League in 2023 with 4.08 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That A.J. Hinch batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 4.63
  • Probable lineup: 4.53
  • Worst lineup: 4.38
  • Regressed lineup: 4.30

The Tigers appear to be a team in transition. The default lineup starts five players yet to reach the peak age of 27, four of those below the prime years of seasonal age 25-29. The rest of the team consists of veterans who are mostly placeholders. Note that the youngsters fill out the top of the order, and the Tigers expect them to lead the offense.

One of the odder decisions involves rookie Parker Meadows, inserted into the leadoff slot. He only showed the ability to get on base at a high rate in the low minors. His power numbers were good at AA and AAA, so he seems miscast in the role of leadoff. There is a lot of uncertainty here, but I suspect his speed is the reason he’s batting first. The LAT prefers Riley Greene in the slot, but a few of the top lineups do put Meadows first.

All in all, the LAT mostly agrees with the grouping of the top of the order. The bottom of the order is a bit odd, also as the worst projected hitter, Javier Baez, bats seventh, not eighth. Maybe the Tigers want two better OBPS in front of Meadows to take advantage of his power?

Young players give the Tigers plenty of upside here. We’ll see if that’s enough to give them a boost to a top division offense.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.

March 12, 2024

Team Offense, Cleveland Guardians

The 2024 series on team offense continues with the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians finished twenty seventh in the Majors and twelfth in the American League in 2023 with 4.09 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Stephen Vogt batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 4.70
  • Probable lineup: 4.66
  • Worst lineup: 4.39
  • Regressed lineup: 4.38

The Guardians and the LAT find themselves in close agreement. The team default lineup and the LAT place the same players in slots 1, 4, 7, 8, and 9. The LAT flips Cleveland 2-3 hitters, the LAT putting Jose Ramirez second and Andres Gimenez third. It also flips the 5-6 hitters, putting Bo Naylor fifth and Ramon Laureano sixth.

The LAT puts Bo behind his brother Josh Naylor. The projections for the family pair are very close, making them look like fraternal twins.

There is some upside as the team is relatively young. Kyle Manzardo also may exceed his projections. He tore up AA, and did okay at AAA at the age of 22. There’s a good chance he’ll beat his projection.

The Guardians appear to look better than last season. There is an improvement in talent, and the team appears to be using that talent well. They won’t blow opponents away, but in a weak division, they will be competitive enough to be in contention for the AL Central title.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.

March 12, 2024

Team Offense, Miami Marlins

The 2024 series on team offense continues with the Miami Marlins. The Marlins finished twenty sixth in the Majors and fifteenth (last) in the National League in 2023 with 4.11 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Skip Schumaker batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 4.67
  • Probable lineup: 4.56
  • Worst lineup: 4.32
  • Regressed lineup: 4.32

The Marlins do a better job grouping the top of the order than the bottom of the order, which is why they only capture 69% of the optimum lineup. Both agree on Luis Arraez leading off, and many of the top LAT order put Josh Bell second. The preferred ordering of those four, however, sees Arraez, Jazz Chisholm Jr. Bell, and Jake Burger as the top four. Given the projections, Burger does seem like the best choice for a clean-up hitter, but we’ll see how Chisholm performs in the role.

What strikes me as odd is the default lineup’s order of Avisail Garcia seventh, Bryan De La Cruz eighth, and Christian Bethancourt ninth. The LAT sees Garcia and Bethancourt as the weakest hitters in the lineup, and oscillates between the two in the eighth slot. If the Marlins want to bat their weakest hitter ninth, that’s fine. But why put a decently productive hitter between the two? Maybe Schumaker doesn’t want to easy outs in a row. Mabye the Marlins don’t trust De La Cruz’s projection. It seems to me that with the catcher batting ninth, anytime De La Cruz gets on base he has a good chance of being taken out with a double play. Better to bat him ninth and give Arraez a chance to advance a runner with a hit.

Batting Tim Anderson fifth to start the season seems like a reasonable move if the Marlins expect his power to return. If not, he would be a great ninth hitter in front of Arraez.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.

March 12, 2024

March 11, 2024

Team Offense, New York Yankees

The 2024 series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. The Yankees finished twenty fifth in the Majors and eleventh in the American League in 2023 with 4.15 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Bret Boone batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 5.32
  • Probable lineup: 5.16
  • Worst lineup: 4.89
  • Regressed lineup: 4.70

The Yankees look to be the most improved offense in the majors in 2024. Adding someone like Juan Soto will do that for a team. He and Alex Verdugo should improve an outfield with a terrible OBP from 2023.

The Yankees should improve in other areas as well. Anthony Volpe has a year of experience under his belt. Austin Wells comes to the majors at the start of his prime, and should better the poor output of the 2023 catchers. Anthony Rizzo appears to be healthy after his 2023 concussion. There is quite a bit of upside here.

The LAT both likes and doesn’t like the lineup construction. It has orders with DJ LeMahieu, Soto, Aaron Judge batting consecutively, but 9-3 rather than 1-4. The LAT and the Yankees agree Volpe should be batting eighth. Despite all that, the default lineup only captures 63% of the optimum lineup.

That is the downside for the Yankees. They have the largest spread between the best and worst lineups studied this season, 0.43 runs. That means getting the right batting order is important. It also means that if the stars go down, there is little on the team to replace them.

Healthy, this is one of the best offenses in the majors. With a couple of injuries, however, they could fall very far once more.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.

March 11, 2024

Team Offense, San Francisco Giants

The 2024 series on team offense continues with the San Francisco Giants. The Giants finished twenty fourth in the Majors and fourteenth in the National League in 2023 with 4.16 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Bob Melvin batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For Jung Hoo Lee, I used the FanGraphs projection, since that seemed more relevant than using the Marcels rookie numbers. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 4.53
  • Probable lineup: 4.49
  • Worst lineup: 4.30
  • Regressed lineup: 4.27

The Giants nail the top of the lineup with the ninth best lineup matching the first four of the default lineup exactly. If the projection holds, Lee should be an excellent lead-off man for the Giants. He helps give the Giants three good OBPs in front of Jorge Soler, who can deliver the power to drive in the runners.

The LAT bats Matt Chapman fifth, and I like that choice better than Michael Conforto. Fifth, with that top three, still demands power. While there isn’t a lot of power in the rest of the lineup, Chapman still projects to provide more than Conforto. If would also free up Conforto to serve as a secondary leadoff-man in the ninth slot.

No matter the configuration, I don’t expect a great offensive season by the Giants. It looks like the bottom three will be an easier stretch for opposing pitchers. Those pitchers should be able to keep the ball in the park as well. The improvement isn’t enough to keep up with the top offenses in the division.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.

March 11, 2024

Bad News and Good News

Gerrit Cole of the Yankees will undergo imaging of his elbow due to poor recoveries after pitching:

Boone, speaking before a Grapefruit League game, said the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner has not been recovering as expected between spring outings.

“His recovery, before getting to his next start, has been more akin to what he feels during the season, when he’s making 100 pitches,” Boone told reporters. “When he’s at 45 [pitches] and building to 55, he usually doesn’t have the recovery issues he’s having.

“I think there’s a level of discomfort, but I wouldn’t describe it as he’s in pain.”

ESPN.com

At least he is not complaining about forearm tightness. Still, it is bad news for the Yankees if Cole is not 100%.

Of course, that might be very good news for Blake Snell and/or Jordan Montgomery. If Cole is seriously injured, those two might get a much better deal from a rich team like the Yankees.

March 10, 2024

Team Offense, Kansas City Royals

The 2024 series on team offense continues with the Kansas City Royals. The Royals finished twenty third in the Majors and tenth in the American League in 2023 with 4.17 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Matt Quatraro batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 4.62
  • Probable lineup: 4.55
  • Worst lineup: 4.34
  • Regressed lineup: 4.31

This is not a bad lineup. The Royals project to bat Maikel Garcia first, Bobby Witt Jr. second, and Vinnie Pasquantino third. The LAT bats Garcia ninth, Pasquantino first, and Witt second. The grouping of those three together is right, even though the LAT starts the grouping before the lineup turns over.

The LAT does disagree with the placement of Salvador Perez as the cleanup hitter. Perez is probably the Royals best home run hitter, and those homers should lead to a good number of runs with the high OBPs in front of the veteran catcher. The fourth slot not only cleans, it sets the table for the power at the bottom. Perez no longer does that well.

On the other hand, Perez is the veteran leader of the team, so if he wants to bat fourth, I suspect he’ll bat fourth.

The Royals offense looks up and coming. There are a number of hitters approaching or in their early primes. If this squad matures this season, the projections above might be a floor rather than a ceiling.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.

March 10, 2024

Team Offense, Pittsburgh Pirates

The 2024 series on team offense continues with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates finished twenty second in the Majors and thirteenth in the National League in 2023 with 4.27 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Derek Shelton batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 4.63
  • Probable lineup: 4.55
  • Worst lineup: 4.45
  • Regressed lineup: 4.31

The Pirates join the ranks of teams with a low spread of talent, so the lineup construction doesn’t matter that much. It is still bothersome to see obvious mistakes like leading off with Oneil Cruz or batting Edward Olivares too low in the order.

The mistakes are even worse when the team does something right like batting Bryan Reynolds second. He is the best power hitter on the team, but the two batters ahead of him project to OBP of .313 and .315, the second and third worst OBPs in the default lineup. Moving runners a long distance gives power its value, so the Pirates should jam the bases with runners ahead of Reynolds, not leave him to hit solo home runs.

One must remember, however, that players are not Start-o-matic cards. It could very well be that Shelton puts players where they are comfortable in the lineup. While that may not help the offense recognize its potential, it prevent players from struggling. Shelton managed this team long enough to know the makeup of his players. If the team improves about 0.3 runs per game over 2023, the Pirates will take that as a big position.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.

March 10, 2024

Royals Commitment

As the vote on a new sales tax to fund a new stadium for the Kansas City Royals approaches, Sam McDowell notes the Royals have not delivered on a key aspect of the deal:

A community benefits agreement (CBA), they promised, would be robust in nature, with an intention to “uplift our community and its needs.” Some 15 months have passed, and, well, where is it? We’re inside of four weeks before an April 2 vote in Jackson County on a 40-year sales tax to fund stadium projects for the Chiefs and Royals. And while a revved-up campaign has concentrated on a message to keep the teams in Jackson County, it also continues to reference a “fair” CBA in social media posts. What CBA? Is it too much to ask that if a CBA is part of the method of persuasion, we get to see it?

KansasCity.com

McDowell implies in the article that without the CBA, there is no reason to trust the Royals. It’s a fair point. McDowell, however, does buy the notion that the project with the CBA can bring economic growth and jobs, despite economists long debunking that idea. Still, this is a good reason for voters to reject the tax, and I hope they do.

March 9, 2024

Team Offense, Washington Nationals

The 2024 series on team offense continues with the Washington Nationals. The Nationals finished twenty first in the Majors and twelfth in the National League in 2023 with 4.32 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Dave Martinez batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 4.28
  • Probable lineup: 4.22
  • Worst lineup: 4.09
  • Regressed lineup: 4.10

The Nationals lineups is one of the few studied that appears to be set to take a set backward in 2024. There are no batters project to post outstanding seasons. About the best they can do is Joey Meneses, with a .327 OBP and a .432 slugging percentage. The team neither does a great job getting on base nor a good job moving runners along with power.

There also is not much youth on the team. Lane Thomas and Keibert Ruiz are both in their primes. Only CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia, Jr are anywhere near you. Don’t expect maturing players to save the day. If Washington does have real young talent in the farm system, this would be a good year to give those hitter a taste of the majors, since it will be tough for the Nationals to win with this offense.

The lineup could be better, but the spread of talent is so small that it doesn’t really matter. The LAT puts Thomas, Nick Senzel, and Victor Robles in one slot only, while the rest of the Nationals batters are all over the place. Well constructed lineup or not, the Nationals do not project to do much damage this season.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.

March 9, 2024

Prospect Suspended

The Reds lost an up and coming youngster for 80 games due to a PED violation. Noelvi Marte won’t see action until the middle of the season:

Marte was acquired in 2022 in the trade that sent pitcher Luis Castillo to Seattle. He’s ranked 35th in ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel’s Top 100 prospects heading into this season. 

ESPN.com

It’s possible he is ranked too high, if the PEDs helped him achieve those numbers.

March 9, 2024

Reinvestment

Jesse Rogers at ESPN discusses the different paths the Rangers and Diamondbacks took this off-season in an effort to repeat their championship runs. The Rangers stood pat while the Diamondbacks reinvested in the team. Closer Paul Sewald appreciates the difference between the Diamondbacks and his former team, the Mariners:

The team had entered the offseason looking to improve its starting rotation while upgrading the lineup at third base and designated hitter. So when Joc Pederson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez and Randal Grichuk were all acquired — and breakout outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was re-signed — everyone in the organization took notice.

That included Sewald, who was acquired from the Seattle Mariners in July and had experienced something very different with his former team when the Mariners traded closer Kendall Graveman to Houston while in the thick of a pennant race in 2021 — and actually did the same by moving Sewald to Arizona despite being just 3½ games out of a playoff spot at the time.

“I was disappointed how things went with my previous employer when I thought we were at a position that we were so close to getting to that group of teams that could make a real run at it,” Sewald said. “I felt like we got let down. To have the team I’m on now, we pretty much did what we could do to improve the team. That’s all you can ask for. Our 26-man roster is even better than last year.”

ESPN.com

The fans don’t like White Flag Trades, but sometimes it is the best thing to do. If, for example, the Mariners win this year with a couple of players picked up in those deals, they won’t look so bad.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks and their ownership can enjoy a summer of love.

March 8, 2024

Betts Will be Catching Soon

Mookie Betts keeps moving to the more difficult end of the defensive spectrum:

Los Angeles planned for the six-time Gold Glove and seven-time All-Star outfielder to be the regular second baseman but shifted him to shortstop for Friday night’s spring training game against Cincinnati. Manager Dave Roberts called the switch, 12 days before the opener, “permanent, for now.”

Expected shortstop Gavin Lux has struggled in the field, primarily with short-hop throws to first base.

Chron.com

Lux will play second base for now. It was impressive enough that Betts could make the move from rightfield to second base, but now at seasonal age 31 he moves to the toughest position behind the pitcher. Most of the Dodgers pitchers own high strikeout rates, which should take some pressure off Betts. Still, if I’m a hitter, I’m trying to pepper the position as much as possible.

March 8, 2024

Team Offense, New York Mets

The 2024 series on team offense continues with the New York Mets. The Mets finished twentieth in the Majors and eleventh in the National League in 2023 with 4.43 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Carlos Mendoza batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 4.78
  • Probable lineup: 4.73
  • Worst lineup: 4.47
  • Regressed lineup: 4.43

The Mendoza lineup is a great first effort at the major league level. He nails three important slots with Brandon Nimmo batting first, Pete Alonso at cleanup, and Brett Baty batting eight. On top of that, his groupings by three are good. The main difference is Mendoza groups his 1-9, while the LAT groups them 9-8. Still, this lineup realizes 84% of it’s potential.

Note that the Mets could do much better than these projections. Both Baty and Francisco Alvarez are still very young, and both hit extremely well in the minor league. If they can post .340 OBPS this year they’ll help expand the offensive context for everyone else and raise the Mets scoring a nice amount.

The Mets disappointed fans the last few years, but in the batter’s box, the team has a good chance to excite the crowd.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.

March 8, 2024

Votto Goes North

Joey Votto reported he agreed to a minor league deal with the Blue Jays. This returns Votto to his home country.

“I am excited about the opportunity to work my way back to the Major Leagues. It’s even sweeter to attempt this while wearing the uniform of my hometown team, the Toronto Blue Jays,” Votto wrote Friday on X.

Chron.com

It’s a nice move by the Blue Jays, and I suspect at some point he will play first base for the MLB club and then retire. Votto produced very high BABIPs during his career, but in three of his last four season they were below .260. Couple that with a rising strikeout rate, and Votto just didn’t produce much offense.

I do suspect he could help the younger Blue Jays hitters with a bit of coaching. If Votto does retire, I wonder if the Blue Jays would keep him as a coach.

March 7, 2024

Team Offense, St. Louis Cardinals

The 2024 series on team offense continues with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals finished nineteenth in the Majors and tenth in the National League in 2023 with 4.44 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Oliver Marmol batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 5.14
  • Probable lineup: 5.11
  • Worst lineup: 4.85
  • Regressed lineup: 4.67

Marmol arranges a very good batting order in what looks like a much improved offense. The top four of the Cardinals default lineup match the the four of the best LAT order exactly. That means St. Louis realizes 89% of the value of the optimum order.

Part of the improvement comes from good young players projected to improve as they mature. Five of the nine players are no older than their early primes, and three have yet to reach their prime years.

One disagreement between the default lineup and the LAT involves batting Masyn Winn ninth instead of eighth. Wynn’s poor OBP projection comes from a brief stint in the majors at seasonal age 21. His minor league OBPs were very good, including at AA and AAA at a young age. He is likely to work well in the ninth slot as a secondary lead-off man.

After an off year, Cardinals fans should be very excited about the batting side of the Cardinals. They’ve done a nice job of rebuilding quickly.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.