The Yankees beat the Giants 7-0 in the opening game of the 2026 major league season. Logan Webb of the Giants faced 26 batters, struck out seven of them, but 9 of the 17 balls in play against him landed for hits. Meanwhile, Max Fried of the Yankees 23 batters, struck out just four, with two of the 17 balls in play against him falling for hits. The Yankee batters found the holes, the Giants players the gloves
Tom Tango discusses the uncertainty players face in challenging pitches.
On full counts, we see catchers are much more aggressive. But even at pitches more than 2 inches inside the strike zone they are only challenging 70% of the time, when it should be 100%. Again, they have a large uncertainty. You can see it on full-counts, on correctly-called pitches more than 3 inches outside the strike zone being challenged 5% of the time. Again, why do they do this? Because they thought it was pretty close to the border, so it was worth a gamble to try to get 0.60 runs (flipped a strikeout to a walk). If 3+ inches is pretty close to the border to the catcher sitting 3 feet from the plate, then yeah, catchers have a huge amount of uncertainty as to the pitch location.
TangoTiger.com
Batters and pitchers face even more uncertainty. We already finding that the best calls come from the person behind the plate concentrating on whether the pitch is a ball or a strike.
Happy Opening Day part one! Here’s wishing your favorite team oodles of success during the 2026 season.
The Yankees visit the Giants, with the game broadcast on Netflix. Max Fried takes on Logan Webb. Both, in a way are throw back pitchers. While in historical terms they strike out a lot of batters, in our modern era they are good but not great. In this decade, both limit walks and home runs (1-2), so they can be dependent on their defenses.
That’s where Fried shines a bit more than Webb. For his career, Fried owns a .292 opposition BABIP, while Webb comes in at .316. Both induce a lot of ground balls, and Luis Arraez at second base likely hurts Webb a bit.
Another story line of the game involves the managers. Tony Vitello has never been in the big leagues. Aaron Boone grew up in MLB clubhouses. His father and grandfather both enjoyed good MLB careers. I believe that’s one reason Boone never lost the clubhouse. We’ll see if Vitello can keep his.
The Cubs locked up Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA) through his prime years with a six year contract for $115 million. I found this bit interesting:
Crow-Armstrong hit .265/.302/.544 with 25 home runs and 27 stolen bases in the first half of last season, making the NL All-Star team. Though Crow-Armstrong struggled in the second half, with only six home runs, eight steals and a .216/.262/.372 slash line, his MVP-caliber talent convinced the Cubs that the second half was more anomalous than the first.
ESPN.com
Crow-Armstrong produced a .286 OBP in 2024, and followed that with a .287 OBP in 2025. So both halves of his season were equally anomalous in terms of OBP. He did add 100 points of slugging overall, and that’s where I disagree with the Cubs.
PCA came into 2025 with poor on base skills and little power. Pitchers decided to go after him. It turns out if you approach PCA that way, he can hit the ball out of the park. So the pitchers adjusted. PCA likes to swing, and he stopped getting pitches he could drive.
He plays 2026 as a 24 year old, so he still has time to make his own adjustments. Marcels see him at .300/.451 this season as he gets a maturity bump. With a .300 OBP, however, his offense still comes at a high cost in outs.
On the other hand, his defense is so good that it will likely pay for the contract by itself. If PCA does develop into a better hitter at the plate, it will be a fantastic deal for Chicago.
The Braves start the season on a down note, losing pitcher Spencer Strider to an injury:
In the latest blow to the Atlanta Braves’ starting rotation, right-hander Spencer Strider will begin the season on the injured list after being diagnosed with an oblique strain, manager Walt Weiss told reporters Monday.
Strider had been scheduled to start in Monday’s spring training finale against Pittsburgh before being scratched. The team hasn’t issued a timeline for Strider’s return, but Weiss said the hope is that he can return in a few weeks.
ESPN.com
Strider represents an example of why I try not to get too worked up about young starting pitchers. His first two full seasons in the majors were excellent, but injuries destroyed what were once great three-true outcomes. He pitched well this spring, but now needs rehabilitation again. It’s why I prefer the long view as to who is currently the best pitcher in the game. Show that your body is going to last into your prime.
The 2026 division previews conclude with the NL Central. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcel projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.
The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates lead the NL Central in core winning percentage, and the pitching is the reason. Paul Skenes at 2.71 RC/G is the best starting pitcher in the division and one of the best in the National League. Bubba Chandler (3.78) and Braxton Ashcraft (4.10) project as solid complements, and Carmen Mlodzinski (4.18) rounds out a rotation that has real depth behind Skenes. Dennis Santana (3.63) is a capable closer. The overall pitching average of 3.90 is the best in the division by a wide margin.
The offense has more punch than Pittsburgh teams of recent years. Marcell Ozuna at DH, signed as a free agent, projects to 6.18 RC/G and is the biggest bat in the lineup. Ryan O’Hearn (5.56 in right) and Spencer Horwitz (5.63 at first) are productive contributors. Bryan Reynolds (5.14 in left) gives the Pirates a veteran presence with consistent production. The concern is the middle infield — Nick Gonzales at shortstop (4.38) and Jared Triolo at third (4.20) are below-average offensive players, and the up-the-middle average of 4.77 is the second weakest in the division. Finding offensive upgrades up the middle is the hardest thing to do at the trade deadline, which limits Pittsburgh’s options if they need to improve.
Oneil Cruz in center (4.81) is a fascinating player who is capable of delivering a much higher projection on any given night. If the Pirates can get more consistent production from Cruz and Gonzales, this offense becomes genuinely dangerous paired with that pitching staff.
Pinto writes:
Can the Pirates actually win the division? Skenes projects to 2.97 runs per 27 outs. Let’s say he starts 32 games and averages seven innings a game. The bullpen averages two innings a game and comes in at 4.00 runs per 27 outs. That’s ((2.97*7) +(4.00 *2)) /9 or 3.20 runs per 27 outs. Assume the offensive core is 80% of the offense and everyone else is worth 4.3 runs per 27 outs. So that’s ((5.09*8) + (4.3+2))/10 or 4.90 runs scored. That works out to a .700 winning percentage, so the Pirates should go 22-10 in Skenes’ starts. 68-62 in the other games gets them to 90-72. Skenes may actually be much better than the Marcels projection, as it’s based on less than two full seasons. The Cubs and the Brewers seem a bit weaker. Maybe this is the Pirates year. Buy your tickets early!
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs project to the best offensive core in the division at 5.29 RC/G, and it is a deep and balanced lineup. Seiya Suzuki (5.94 in right), Michael Busch (5.83 at first), Moises Ballesteros (5.61 at DH), and Alex Bregman (5.57 at third) give Chicago four hitters projecting above 5.50 RC/G. Ian Happ (5.43 in left) and Nico Hoerner (5.10 at second) keep the lineup from having a soft spot anywhere in the middle of the order. There is no Aaron Judge or Juan Soto here, but this is a lineup without holes.
The pitching is where Chicago edges closer to the Pirates than the gap in CWP might suggest. Cade Horton (3.59 RC/G) and Shota Imanaga (3.92) form a strong top two in the rotation. Matthew Boyd (4.29) and Edward Cabrera (4.46) are solid mid-rotation options. Jameson Taillon (4.50) rounds out the staff adequately. Daniel Palencia (4.12) is a serviceable closer. The rotation lacks the elite ace the Pirates have in Skenes, but it is consistent from top to bottom.
The up-the-middle average of 4.80 is the third best in the division, and the combination of a deep lineup and a functional rotation makes Chicago one of the more complete teams in the NL Central. The Cubs project to contend for the division title all season.
Milwaukee Brewers
Brandon Woodruff’s return to the rotation is the story of the Brewers’ season. After missing all of 2024 and much of 2025 with a shoulder injury — and then suffering further setbacks when he did return last year — he projects to 3.35 RC/G, the second best starter projection in the division behind only Skenes. The Marcels are working with limited innings from him, so that projection is heavily regressed toward the mean; the real Woodruff at full health may be better still. If he can stay on the field for a full season, Milwaukee’s rotation looks considerably more dangerous. Jacob Misiorowski (4.06) and Abner Uribe closing at 3.22 RC/G give the Brewers additional pitching assets. This is a staff that can keep games close.
The offense has Jackson Chourio (5.86 in left) and Christian Yelich (5.86 at DH) as its twin engines, both projecting identically and both capable of carrying the lineup on a good night. William Contreras (5.97 at catcher) gives Milwaukee one of the best offensive catchers in the National League. Sal Frelick (5.03 in right) and Garrett Mitchell (5.00 in center) are consistent contributors in the outfield.
The weak spot is shortstop. Joey Ortiz projects to just 3.94 RC/G, the softest position in an otherwise productive lineup, and it drags the up-the-middle average to 4.96. The Brewers have enough overall offense to compensate, but Ortiz is the obvious target for a mid-season upgrade if one becomes available.
Milwaukee has the pitching upside to challenge for the division title if Woodruff stays healthy, and the offense to stay competitive even in his absence. They are the third team in what looks like a genuinely tight three-way race at the top of the division.
Pinto writes: I stopped underestimating the Brewers. Like the Rays in the AL this team often offers more than meets the eye.
Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz at shortstop (5.83 RC/G) is the most exciting player on this roster, and at seasonal age 24 he is still ascending. The up-the-middle average of 5.24 is the best in the division, with De La Cruz and TJ Friedl (5.28 in center) driving a strong number at those key defensive positions. That is an asset when looking at what can be improved at the trade deadline — the corners are easier to upgrade than the middle, and Cincinnati has the middle covered.
The offense is solid in spots but uneven overall. Sal Stewart (5.37 at first) and Eugenio Suarez (5.04 at DH) are productive contributors. The concern is Ke’Bryan Hayes at third base, who projects to just 3.79 RC/G — the weakest position projection on the team and one of the softer spots in the division. Noelvi Marte (4.64 in right) is another below-average contributor.
The rotation has more promise than it gets credit for. Chase Burns (4.13 RC/G) and Andrew Abbott (4.31) are legitimate mid-rotation arms, and Nick Lodolo (4.54) and Rhett Lowder (4.50) give Cincinnati solid depth. Brady Singer (4.98) is the one arm who projects to give back runs at a concerning rate. Emilio Pagan (3.82) is a capable closer.
The Reds are a step behind the top three teams in this division, but they are not far behind. De La Cruz alone makes them dangerous on any given night, and if the rotation performs to the middle of its range, Cincinnati could push for a wild card.
St. Louis Cardinals
Ivan Herrera at DH projects to 6.36 RC/G, the best offensive projection on the Cardinals roster and a sign that the organization has developed a genuine middle-of-the-order bat from within. Alec Burleson (5.12 at first) is a consistent contributor. Beyond those two, however, the Cardinals’ lineup is populated by players projecting at or below league average. Victor Scott II in center (3.73) and Pedro Pages at catcher (3.82) are significant liabilities, and the up-the-middle average of 4.20 is the worst in the division by a considerable margin. St. Louis will struggle to manufacture runs on nights when Herrera is not carrying the offense.
The rotation has some depth without a clear ace. Kyle Leahy (3.94 RC/G) is the most effective starter on the staff and a solid mid-rotation arm. Michael McGreevy (4.15) is a competent second option. Matthew Liberatore (4.85), Dustin May (4.98), and Andre Pallante (4.91) round out a back end that is serviceable but unlikely to dominate opposing lineups. Riley O’Brien (4.66) is a below-average closer by division standards.
A .507 core winning percentage means the Cardinals’ best players project to barely break even, and the rest of the roster will pull them well below that. This looks like a year of transition in St. Louis, with the organization needing to find upgrades at several positions before the Cardinals can challenge the teams at the top of this division.
Predictions
Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.
The NL Central sets up as one of the best three-team races in baseball. The Pirates have the best pitcher in the division in Skenes and a pitching staff that can keep them in almost every game. The Cubs have the deepest lineup. The Brewers have the biggest upside card in a healthy Woodruff. Any of those three teams could win this division, and it would be no surprise if all three finish above .500. The Reds will keep things interesting with De La Cruz, but the gap between them and the top three is real. The Cardinals need a significant offseason before they can rejoin the conversation at the top of this division.
Pinto writes: It looks to me like Claude.AI got the probabilities right, although I may have gone 26% for the Brewers and 13% for the Reds, just to make the gaps more even. I hope Pirates fans have an inkling of what’s in store for them. I also hope the team will be willing to add at the trade dead-line if a deep playoff run appears possible.
The 2026 division previews continue with the AL West. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcel projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.
The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.
Seattle Mariners
Seattle returns as the favorite in the AL West, and the numbers bear that out. The Mariners project to the best pitching staff in the division by a comfortable margin, and a balanced offense with no obvious soft spots gives them the depth to grind through a long season. Their .640 core winning percentage is the highest in the division and one of the higher marks in the American League.
The reason is the rotation. George Kirby (3.97 RC/G), Bryan Woo (3.13), Logan Gilbert (3.50), and Luis Castillo (4.41) give the Mariners four starters who all project as above-average or better. Woo in particular is an outstanding projection — 3.13 RC/G puts him among the best starters in the American League. Emerson Hancock (5.11) is the one soft spot in the rotation, and even he is offset by how good the top four are. Add Munoz closing at 2.97 and this is the best pitching staff in the division by a significant margin.
The offense is solid rather than spectacular. Cal Raleigh (6.06 RC/G at catcher) is one of the better hitting catchers in baseball, and Julio Rodriguez (5.74 in center) gives Seattle a homegrown star still ascending at seasonal age 25. Josh Naylor (5.75 at first) is a consistent run producer. The up-the-middle average of 5.19 leads the division, meaning the Mariners are strong precisely where teams are hardest to upgrade. The lineup lacks a superstar on the level of Judge or Witt, but there are no soft spots either.
Brendan Donovan (5.58 at third) is an underrated piece of this roster, projecting as one of the better third basemen in the AL West. Randy Arozarena (5.17 in left) and Luke Raley (4.99 in right) round out a deep, if unspectacular, outfield.
Seattle looks like the team to beat in the AL West for the second straight season.
Pinto writes: It’s prime time for Rodriguez, and I very much hope to see him take his offense to the next level as he enters what should be the best years of his career. Maybe a seven or eight WAR season?
Texas Rangers
Corey Seager at 6.97 RC/G is the offensive centerpiece of a Rangers lineup that is more balanced than it might appear at first glance. Wyatt Langford (5.60 in left), Brandon Nimmo (5.24 in right), and Evan Carter (5.30 in center) give Texas a strong outfield. Joc Pederson (5.11 at DH) is a useful run producer. The up-the-middle average of 5.38 is the best in the division, anchored by Seager at shortstop.
The rotation has a genuine ace in Jacob deGrom at 3.59 RC/G. DeGrom’s history of injury means every projection for him comes with an asterisk — the Marcels can project his performance when healthy, but not how often he will take the ball. If he pitches 170 innings, the Rangers rotation looks formidable. Jack Leiter (4.47) and Nathan Eovaldi (3.67) give Texas two more above-average arms. MacKenzie Gore (4.94) and Jacob Latz (4.36) fill out the back of the rotation adequately. Robert Garcia (4.19) is a serviceable closer.
The Rangers project tightly behind Seattle, and the gap between them is narrower than it might look. If deGrom stays healthy, Texas has the pitching to challenge the Mariners all summer. That is a big if, but it has been a big if every season deGrom has been healthy, and he has occasionally delivered on it in spectacular fashion.
Pinto writes: I wonder how much being around deGrom and Eovaldi will help Gore. His FIPs were much better than his ERAs over the last two seasons, so maybe a better defense, combined with advice from two great veterans might help Gore go to the next level.
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics project to the best offensive core in the division at 5.50 RC/G, which may surprise those who have not been paying attention to what Oakland has been building. Nick Kurtz at first base is the centerpiece. He projects to 8.35 RC/G — an extraordinary number that reflects nearly 500 plate appearances in 2025 that were outstanding enough to produce this heavily regressed figure. The real Kurtz may be even better. He gives the Athletics the kind of young star around which franchises are built.
Brent Rooker (6.17 at DH) and Jacob Wilson (5.91 at shortstop) are legitimate offensive contributors. Shea Langeliers (5.09 at catcher) is a useful bat behind the plate. Tyler Soderstrom (5.59) in left field adds another powerful projection to a lineup full of them. The concern is that several of these players are projecting at levels they have not yet fully demonstrated over full seasons, and the Marcels are working with limited data on more than one of them.
The pitching, however, is the reason the Athletics do not challenge for the division title. Luis Severino (5.09 RC/G) and Jack Kochanowicz (5.90 at the back of the rotation) are significant liabilities. Jeffrey Springs (4.57) and Aaron Civale (4.78) are mid-rotation quality at best. Hogan Harris closing at 4.88 is the weakest closer projection in the division. No matter how well the offense performs, it is difficult to win consistently when the pitching gives back runs at this rate.
The Athletics are a fascinating team — potentially one of the best offenses in the AL, but held back by pitching that projects to struggle. A playoff run feels unlikely unless the rotation dramatically outperforms.
Pinto writes: I very much look forward to Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang joining the Athletics rotation. I hope he has broad shoulders.
Houston Astros
Yordan Alvarez at 7.58 RC/G remains one of the most feared hitters in baseball, and he anchors an Astros lineup that still has Jose Altuve (5.60 at second base) and Issac Paredes (5.93 at third) as productive contributors. The offense projects to a solid 5.30 RC/G average, enough to keep Houston competitive on most nights.
The rotation, however, is a concern. Lance McCullers Jr. projects to 6.17 RC/G, a number that reflects both his injury history and how far he has fallen from his peak. Having McCullers in the rotation as a fifth starter is manageable; having him projected as one of the worse arms on the staff is a sign of how thin the Houston pitching depth has become. Cristian Javier (4.82) and Hunter Brown (3.87) are the most reliable arms. Tatsuya Imai (4.50) is an interesting addition. Bryan Abreu (3.48) is a solid closer.
The Astros’ up-the-middle average of 5.01 is adequate, with Altuve at second and Carlos Correa (5.10) at shortstop providing the veteran core the organization has leaned on for years. This still looks like a .500-plus team that will compete for a wild card, but the days of the Astros being a dominant force in the AL West appear to be behind them for now.
Pinto writes: Looks like Houston is setting up to take one more shot at the playoffs before going into rebuild mode. I suspect they may want to see the shape of the new CBA before they decide how build a new winner.
Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout projects to 5.77 RC/G in center field. That is actually a subdued number by Trout’s historical standards, reflecting both the Marcels building in age-related decline at seasonal age 35 and the accumulated weight of his injury history in recent years. He is still the best player on this team, and on the days he takes the field, the Angels are a more interesting offensive club.
The problem is that a .501 core winning percentage means even with Trout healthy, the Angels’ best players barely project to break even. Zach Neto (5.46 at shortstop) and Nolan Schanuel (5.41 at first) are the two brightest offensive spots outside of Trout. Yoan Moncada (5.12 at third) adds some punch. But Adam Frazier at second base (3.97) and Jo Adell in right (4.67) are below-average contributors at their positions, and the pitching staff is one of the weakest in the division.
Jack Kochanowicz (5.90 RC/G) and Reid Detmers (5.08) are the rotation’s two biggest liabilities. Jose Soriano (4.13) projects as the most effective starter on the staff, which is a modest ceiling for an ace. Kirby Yates (4.10) is the one reliable piece in the bullpen as the closer. The Angels lead the division in up-the-middle average at 4.87, but that is a function of Trout and Neto rather than genuine organizational depth.
The Angels have now missed the playoffs for eleven consecutive seasons. The core winning percentage of .501 suggests that streak is not about to end in 2026. Until the front office finds a way to build a rotation worthy of Trout’s remaining seasons, Anaheim will continue to watch October from home.
Predictions
Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.
The AL West looks like a two-team race between Seattle and Texas, with the Mariners holding a meaningful edge in pitching depth. The Athletics are the wild card in this division — if the offense performs to its projection and the rotation finds more consistency than expected, Oakland could surprise. The Astros remain competitive but are no longer the dominant force they were. The Angels need a rotation overhaul before they can seriously contend, and with Trout’s window narrowing, time is not on their side.
Pinto writes: I might go 40-30 on the Mariners and Rangers as the top pair. I’m also waiting to see what the Athletics have up their pitching sleeve.
The 2026 division previews continue with the NL East. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcel projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.
The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.
New York Mets
Juan Soto at 8.37 RC/G is once again the best hitter in the division, and in his second season with the Mets he enters fully acclimated to New York. He is the reason the Mets project to the top of the NL East, but he is far from the only reason. Francisco Lindor (5.85 RC/G at shortstop) and Bo Bichette (5.55 at third base) give New York a strong left side of the infield. Marcus Semien (4.60 at second) is a veteran presence who keeps the lineup from having a soft spot up the middle.
The pitching is where the Mets separate themselves from the Braves. At 4.09 RC/G, New York projects the best rotation in the division. Freddy Peralta (3.88) and Kodai Senga (4.22) are the headliners, but the most intriguing name is Nolan McLean at 3.49 RC/G. If McLean pitches to that projection, the Mets have a genuine ace anchoring their staff. Devin Williams (3.40 RC/G) is one of the best closers in the National League, and his presence at the back of the bullpen makes every late lead feel secure.
The up-the-middle average of 4.98 is solid, ranking second in the division. The one concern in the lineup is Luis Robert Jr. in center at 4.55 RC/G, which is below what the Mets need from that position given the surrounding talent. If Robert outperforms that projection, this offense becomes genuinely formidable from top to bottom.
The Mets look like the team to beat in the NL East.
Pinto writes: So far in his tenure as Mets owner, Steve Cohen has been more Gene Autry than George Steinbrenner. This may be the year that changes that.
Atlanta Braves
Ronald Acuna Jr. returns to right field projecting at 8.02 RC/G, and his presence transforms the Atlanta lineup. The Braves project to the best offensive core in the division at 5.45 RC/G, driven by Acuna, Matt Olson (6.58 at first base), and Drake Baldwin (5.92 at catcher). Baldwin’s projection is a pleasant surprise — a catcher who projects above 5.50 RC/G is a genuine offensive asset, and Austin Riley (5.50 at third) gives Atlanta one of the deeper lineups in the National League.
The problem is shortstop. Mauricio Dubon projects to just 3.98 RC/G, the weakest position in the Atlanta lineup and one of the softer spots in the division. That drags the Braves’ up-the-middle average to 4.89, behind both the Mets and the Phillies. Finding an upgrade there at the trade deadline would go a long way toward closing the gap with New York.
The rotation has real upside. Chris Sale (3.87 RC/G) and Reynaldo Lopez (4.05) project as a strong top two. Spencer Strider (4.69) is back from Tommy John surgery, and the projection reflects the uncertainty of a pitcher returning from that procedure — he is capable of pitching considerably better than that number. Grant Holmes (4.46) is a serviceable mid-rotation arm. Raisel Iglesias (3.34) is the best closer in the division.
The Braves have the best offense in the division and an upside story in Strider. If he returns to anything close to his pre-injury form, Atlanta leapfrogs New York in a hurry. This will be a tight race all season.
Pinto writes: This is another example of the Marcels seeing good players returning to their norms after a poor season. New manager Walt Weiss might look brilliant due to the turnaround.
Philadelphia Phillies
Bryce Harper (6.59 RC/G) and Kyle Schwarber (6.58) remain the twin engines of the Philadelphia offense, and at seasonal ages 33 and 32 respectively, both are in the final years where the Marcels will treat them generously. Trea Turner (5.73 at shortstop) and Brandon Marsh (5.58 in left) give the lineup real depth behind those two. The Phillies project to the second-best up-the-middle core in the division at 4.90, anchored by Turner.
The rotation is the issue. Taijuan Walker projects to 5.96 RC/G, which is a significant liability for a team with division title aspirations. If Walker is in the rotation on opening day, opponents will look forward to that start. Cristopher Sanchez (3.64) and Jesus Luzardo (4.24) are legitimate assets at the top and middle of the staff. Andrew Painter (4.50) is a young arm with upside whose projection could understate what he becomes. Jhoan Duran (3.75) is an excellent closer acquisition.
Philadelphia’s offensive core is deep enough to outscore opponents on many nights, but with Walker in the rotation the pitching average of 4.57 creates too many difficult games. The Phillies’ path to the division title likely runs through a rotation upgrade, or through Painter and Luzardo outperforming their projections enough to compensate for Walker.
Pinto writes: Pitcher Zack Wheeler starts his rehabilitation assignment this weekend after recovering from thoracic outlet surgery. He was ranked as one of the top pitchers in the game before the physical problem arose. He may not be as effective as in the past, and likely won’t pitch as deep into games. We’ll see how he adjusts to his repairs.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins have the most interesting young outfield in the division. Jakob Marsee projects to 6.22 RC/G in center field, an eye-catching number for a player still establishing himself at the major league level. Kyle Stowers (5.76 in left) and Owen Caissie (4.66 in right) flank him in a group that gives Miami genuine upside if those projections hold. Xavier Edwards (5.35 at second base) is a skilled table-setter. The Marlins actually lead the division in up-the-middle average at 5.10, which is a sign of organizational depth at key positions.
The rotation centers on the health of Eury Perez (3.76 RC/G), who projects as the best starter on the staff and one of the more talented young arms in the National League when healthy. If Perez pitches a full season, the Marlins rotation looks considerably more competitive. The rest of the staff is inconsistent: Sandy Alcantara (4.64) is steady but no longer the ace he was before his injury, Max Meyer (5.60) and Chris Paddack (5.34) are back-of-rotation concerns. Pete Fairbanks (3.60) is a legitimate closer.
The Marlins project above .500 at their core, which is progress. The youth in the outfield and Perez’s potential make this a team to watch for 2027 more than 2026, but they will not be a pushover this season.
Pinto writes: There is plenty of upside here. Alcantara had a winter to work out his kinks. I really like that the Marlins are successfully building from the middle out, and I too am optimistic for 2027.
Washington Nationals
James Wood (6.42 RC/G in left) and Daylen Lile (6.23 in right) are two of the most exciting young outfielders in the National League, and they represent the brightest part of what remains a rebuilding organization. Both are pre-prime players with room to grow well beyond their current projections. CJ Abrams (5.12 at shortstop) has developed into a solid offensive contributor. Those three are genuine reasons for optimism in Washington.
The problem is everyone else. Kelbert Ruiz at catcher (3.93 RC/G), Brady House at third (3.85), Jacob Young in center (3.84), and Andres Chaparro at DH (4.04) give opposing pitchers four soft spots to attack in every lineup card. The Nationals rank last in the division in up-the-middle average at 4.42, and the gaps at those positions are difficult to fill from within.
The pitching staff is similarly thin. Miles Mikolas (5.82 RC/G) and Cade Cavalli (5.23) at the top of the rotation project as genuine liabilities. Jake Irvin (5.35) is not much better. Foster Griffin (4.50) and Zack Littell (4.59) are the most presentable arms, which tells you something about the depth of the staff. When your best starters project around league average, the team is going to lose a lot of close games.
Washington’s future is brighter than its present. Wood, Lile, and Abrams are building blocks worth watching, but this is another transitional season in the capital.
Pinto writes: How the starting rotation looks at the end of the season will tell us more about where the Nationals are headed. There seem to be a lot of placeholders there to start the season.
Predictions
Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.
The NL East sets up as one of the best division races in baseball. The Mets edge the Braves by a hair in core winning percentage, largely on the strength of their pitching. But the Braves have the better offense and a major upside card in Strider’s recovery. The Phillies have the firepower to stay in the race if the rotation stabilizes. With two of these three likely to reach the postseason through the division title and a wild card, NL East fans should be in for a compelling summer.
Pinto writes: The Phillies seem to be letting themselves get old. This worked for the Dodgers, we’ll see if it works here as well.
The 2026 division previews continue with the AL Central. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcel projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.
The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.
Kansas City Royals
Bobby Witt Jr. at 7.37 RC/G is the best position player in the division and one of the best in the American League. He anchors an offense that also features Carter Jensen (6.05 RC/G at DH), who projects as one of the more intriguing young bats in the division. Isaac Collins (5.31 in left) and Vinnie Pasquantino (5.26 at first) are solid contributors. The weak spots are Kyle Isbel in center (3.96) and Jac Caglianone in right (3.62), who drag down what is otherwise a deep lineup. Witt’s presence alone gives Kansas City the best up-the-middle average in the division at 5.16.
The rotation is quietly the strength that makes this team dangerous. Cole Ragans (3.70 RC/G) is one of the better left-handed starters in the AL and projects as a genuine ace. Noah Cameron (3.74) and Kris Bubic (3.80) are intriguing young arms who project well. Seth Lugo (4.61) and Michael Wacha (4.31) provide veteran depth. No starter in this rotation projects above 4.61 RC/G, which makes it among the deepest and most consistent in the division. Carlos Estevez (3.87) is a reliable closer.
The Royals look like a team that has genuinely arrived. The combination of a transcendent shortstop, a surprisingly deep rotation, and a supporting cast that avoids obvious liabilities gives them a strong case for the division title. The concern, as always with a team building on young talent, is whether the projections on players like Jensen and Cameron reflect real development or optimistic regression.
Pinto writes: Maikel Garcia entered his prime years in 2025 and posted a 5.6 fWAR season. Given his two previous season with below average offense, Marcels might be underestimating him a bit for 2026. Another great season from Garcia will greatly help the Royals win the division.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers and Royals project to identical position player averages at 5.09 RC/G, but Detroit’s pitching gives Kansas City the edge in CWP. What the Tigers do have is Tarik Skubal at 2.80 RC/G, the best starting pitcher in the division and one of the best in baseball. Framber Valdez (3.84), signed as a free agent from Houston, slots in as a strong second starter. Those two give Detroit a genuine one-two punch at the top of the rotation that most teams in this division cannot match.
The offense is led by Riley Greene (6.07 RC/G in left) and Kerry Carpenter (5.77 in right), a pair of corner outfielders who can carry the lineup on a given night. Gleyber Torres (5.20) and Colt Keith (5.11 at third) are consistent contributors. The concern is at the bottom of the order. Zach McKinstry at DH (4.49) and Dillon Dingler at catcher (4.83) are below the level of the top of the order, and Kevin McGonigle at shortstop (4.50) is an unknown quantity in the middle of the diamond. The Tigers’ up-the-middle average of 4.80 is the second weakest in the division, which limits flexibility at the trade deadline.
Behind Skubal and Valdez the rotation gets shaky. Jack Flaherty (4.74), Casey Mize (5.04), and Justin Verlander (5.32) project to a level that gives opponents a fighting chance. Kenley Jansen (3.86) remains a reliable closer well into his late career. If Skubal and Valdez pitch at their projections and the Tigers can limit the damage from the back of the rotation, Detroit is a legitimate division contender.
Pinto writes: The Tigers lost the division in epic style last season, but due to the playoff structure, it will not go down with the 1964 Phillies or the 1978 Red Sox. That fall should remind everyone that teams can regress in season as well as season to season.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins actually project to the best position player average in the division at 5.14 RC/G, which might come as a surprise. Byron Buxton (5.87 in center) is the engine of the offense when healthy, and that qualifier has haunted Minnesota for years. Luke Keaschall (6.01 at second base) is a remarkable projection, though with only 207 plate appearances in 2025 the Marcels are heavily regressed toward the mean — meaning his actual ability may be even better than the number suggests. Matt Wallner (5.75 in right) and Ryan Jeffers (5.32 at catcher) round out a lineup with genuine depth.
The up-the-middle average of 5.31 leads the division. That combination of Jeffers, Keaschall, Brooks Lee (4.02 at shortstop), and Buxton is actually quite good despite Lee’s modest projection, because the other three are so strong. The downside is that Lee is the most obvious spot an opponent can attack, and he is difficult to upgrade mid-season given the strength around him.
The pitching is where the Twins fall behind the Royals and Tigers. Joe Ryan (4.13 RC/G) is the best starter on the staff and a solid mid-rotation arm, but not an ace. Simeon Woods Richardson (4.35), Taj Bradley (4.46), and Bailey Ober (4.56) are all fine. Mick Abel (4.99) is the one projection that gives pause. Taylor Rogers at 4.93 RC/G is a below-average closer by division standards, which will cost Minnesota games in close situations.
Minnesota has a strong enough offense to stay in most games, but the pitching ceiling is lower than the teams above them. A healthy, productive Buxton all season is the variable that could flip this team into a division contender.
Cleveland Guardians
Jose Ramirez (6.35 RC/G at third base) and Steven Kwan (5.15 in center) are the offensive pillars of a Cleveland lineup that relies heavily on those two. The problem is the middle infield. Brayan Rocchio at second base (3.92) and Gabriel Arias at shortstop (3.84) are the two weakest projections at any position in the division, and they sit right in the heart of the defensive alignment where upgrading via trade is hardest. The up-the-middle average of 4.27 is the worst in the division by a considerable margin.
Kyle Manzardo (5.16 at first base) and Rhys Hoskins (4.67 at DH) give the lineup additional contributors, but the offense as a whole projects to the second weakest core in the division. Cleveland will need Ramirez to carry a heavy load.
The pitching is more encouraging. Cade Smith (3.18 RC/G) is one of the best closers in the division, and the rotation has some depth. Tanner Bibee (4.21), Joey Cantillo (4.17), and Gavin Williams (4.24) form a solid mid-rotation trio. The concern is Slade Cecconi at the top of the staff (5.06 RC/G), which is not what you want from your number one starter. The Guardians are built to compete through pitching and defense in the traditional Cleveland fashion, but the weak middle infield makes that formula harder to execute.
Pinto writes: The last few seasons Minnesota looked better on paper than they played. Maybe new manager Derek Shelton can change that.
Chicago White Sox
A .501 core winning percentage means that even the best players on the White Sox project to barely break even, and the rest of the roster will pull them below that. That is the reality of a team still working its way through a long rebuild.
The most interesting player in the lineup is Colson Montgomery at shortstop, who projects to 5.68 RC/G. That is a strong number for a young player, and it suggests Chicago may have a genuine middle-of-the-order talent developing at a premium defensive position. Edgar Quero (5.00 at catcher) and Austin Hays (4.91 in right) are useful contributors, but the rest of the lineup is populated by players projecting to below-average or league-average offense.
The rotation is inconsistent from top to bottom. Shane Smith (4.00 RC/G) is the most effective starter on the staff, followed by Anthony Kay (4.50) and Davis Martin (4.86). Sean Burke (5.16) and Erick Fedde (4.97) give the rotation a back end that is going to struggle against good lineups. Seranthony Dominguez (4.45) is an adequate closer.
The White Sox are not yet a competitive team by these measures, but Montgomery and Quero are worth watching. If they outperform their projections and the pitching takes a step forward, Chicago could surprise. For now, they project as the division’s bottom team for the second straight season.
Predictions
Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.
The AL Central looks like the most competitive division in the American League. The Royals have the best combination of a dominant position player in Witt and a deep rotation, but the Tigers have Skubal, who on his best days is as good as anyone in baseball. The Twins have the offense to stay in the race all season. All three of those teams could win the division, and at least two of them may find their way into the postseason. Cleveland will be competitive but faces too many holes to challenge at the top. Chicago is watching the calendar turn on a rebuild that still has time to run.
Pinto writes: Cleveland has a way of surprising and the Twins a way of disappointing. Cleveland approaches 80 seasons without a World Series title, and at some point soon they will need to make a big move to win.
The 2026 division previews continue with the NL West. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcel projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.
The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.
Los Angeles Dodgers
A .741 core winning percentage is one of the highest you will see in this exercise, and it reflects just how different the Dodgers are from the rest of the division. Shohei Ohtani projects to 9.04 RC/G as a hitter, and he’s also in the starting rotation at 3.76 RC/G as a pitcher. He fills two spots in the core simultaneously, and both projections are exceptional. There is no comparable player in baseball history for this exercise to lean on.
The rest of the lineup doesn’t need to do much, but it does a great deal anyway. Kyle Tucker (7.00 RC/G), acquired from Houston, steps into right field and slots immediately as one of the three best hitters in the division. Freddie Freeman (7.03) at seasonal age 36 still projects as an elite offensive player, though the Marcels are beginning to price in some age-related decline. Mookie Betts (6.17) at shortstop anchors the up-the-middle core, which at 5.57 leads the division easily.
The rotation is nearly as impressive as the lineup. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.11 RC/G) and Tyler Glasnow (3.42) give the Dodgers two legitimate aces. Emmet Sheehan (3.59) has developed into a strong third option. Add Ohtani as a fourth starter and the Dodgers sport four pitchers projecting under 3.80 RC/G. Edwin Diaz (3.34) closes games as well as anyone in the division.
The one soft spot is Hyeseong Kim at second base, who projects to 4.70 RC/G. Every other position player is at 4.99 or better. If Kim develops as hoped, there is no soft spot at all. This is not just the best team in the division; it may be the best team in baseball.
Pinto writes:
Ohtani is Baseball Bugs:
His offense and pitching values imply a Pythagorean win percentage of .853. I also suspect he could throw a fastball to the mound, beat it to the plate, and catch it for a strike.
(By the way, if you watch part one, you’ll see how the Gashouse Gorillas handle pitch challenges.)
On a more serious note, the Dodgers are not just going for a three-peat, but seem to be intent on going down as the greatest team of all time. Twice in my lifetime, teams went into a season with so much talent there appeared to be no way for them to lose, and they followed through with championships.
In the spring of 1976, coming off their World Series win over the Red Sox, writers joked that the Reds might not lose a game in the upcoming season. They won 102 games, tops in the NL, then swept the Phillies and Yankees in the playoffs.
In the spring of 1998, in writing my previews for Baseball Tonight, it looked like the Yankees had no weaknesses. No other team came close to their strength up the middle. There were no holes in the lineup, the defense played well, and the pitching staff was impressive. The won 114 games, and posted an 11-2 record in the three rounds of the playoffs, sweeping the Rangers and Padres along the way.
Once a again, an excellent team became even better. Los Angeles reminds me more of Cincinnati than New York, because the core of the team is older. It’s quite possible Betts and Freeman may not have one more good year in them. Players in their 30s can fall apart quickly. If Ohtani blows out his elbow again, the Dodgers need to fill two holes. If those three play up to expectations, however, this team has no peers, and is likely to become the first NL team to win three World Series in a row.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants landed Rafael Devers at first base in a mid-2025 trade, and he enters 2026 as the best hitter on the team by a comfortable margin, projecting to 6.55 RC/G. Now with a full season in San Francisco ahead of him, pairing Devers with Luis Arraez (5.40 at second base) and Matt Chapman (5.23 at third) gives the Giants a respectable infield core.
The concern is the rest of the lineup. Patrick Bailey at catcher projects to just 3.77 RC/G, the weakest projection at any position in the division. Will Brennan at DH (4.38) and Harrison Bader in center (4.53) are below-average offensive players. The Giants’ up-the-middle number of 4.65 is the second weakest in the division. That limits the options for mid-season upgrades, since the easier positions to fill are the corners, and the Giants have already filled their corners well.
The pitching is anchored by Logan Webb (4.03 RC/G), who is the team’s most reliable arm and projects as the best starter on the staff. Tyler Mahle (3.90) is an interesting piece coming off Tommy John surgery — if healthy, he could outperform that projection. Adrian Houser (5.14) is the rotation’s weak link. Ryan Walker (4.04) is a serviceable closer but not elite.
The Giants project as the clear second-best team in the division, though there is a significant gap between them and the Dodgers. In a division where the top team is this dominant, second place and a wild card may be the realistic ceiling.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks present an interesting puzzle. They actually project to the best up-the-middle offense in the division at 5.65, driven by Ketel Marte (6.81 RC/G at second base) and Geraldo Perdomo (6.06 at shortstop). That is a remarkable middle infield combination, and it speaks to how deep the Diamondbacks’ talent runs in key defensive spots. Corbin Carroll (6.41) in right field and Gabriel Moreno (5.54) at catcher add to a lineup with several genuine contributors.
The pitching is the problem. Eduardo Rodriguez (5.45 RC/G) and Brandon Pfaadt (5.28) project as two of the weaker starters in the division. Zac Gallen (4.38) and Ryne Nelson (4.58) are mid-rotation quality at best. The staff as a whole allows too many runs to support what is actually a decent offense. Paul Sewald at 4.60 is among the less effective closers in the division, which hurts in games decided by one or two runs.
The Diamondbacks’ strength up the middle means they have flexibility to improve the corners if a trade opportunity arises, but the rotation is harder to fix mid-season. If Rodriguez and Pfaadt significantly outperform their projections, Arizona could push for a wild card. As it stands, the pitching gap between the Diamondbacks and the teams above them in this division is simply too large.
Pinto writes: Eduardo Rodriguez pitched well in the WBC, so there is hope for a better outcome from him. Other help might come from Corbin Burnes returning from Tommy John surgery mid season, and Merrill Kelly coming off the illjured list from back tightness.
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (6.15 RC/G) and Jackson Merrill (6.06) are a pair of excellent right-side outfielders who give the Padres genuine offensive firepower. Manny Machado (5.32) at third base is still a productive hitter. Beyond those three, the offensive core becomes considerably thinner. Freddy Fermin at catcher (4.26) and Gavin Sheets at first base (4.32) are below-average contributors, and neither projects to improve much.
The rotation is the real issue. German Marquez projects to 7.23 RC/G, which means the opposition essentially has a free pass in his starts. Walker Buehler (6.01) is not far behind in futility, still working his way back from injury with numbers that suggest he is not close to his former self. Nick Pivetta (3.82) is a genuine asset and the only starter who projects as above average. Michael King (4.04) is solid. The staff projects to a 5.00 RC/G average, which is the worst in the division outside of Colorado.
Mason Miller at 2.93 RC/G is one of the best closers in the majors, which will save a number of close games. But a closer can only protect leads, and with a rotation this inconsistent the Padres will not build enough leads to make that matter. The Padres have the talent to be a .500 team, but right now they project to hover right around that line.
Pinto writes: The Padres seem to be taking a pause after everything A.J. Preller tried over the last decade failed to lead to a championship.
I expect Marquez to pitch much better than his projection now that he is out of Colorado. Much, better, however, might be 5.50 RC/G.
Colorado Rockies
Hunter Goodman (5.18 RC/G at catcher) and Mickey Moniak (5.07 as DH) are the most productive hitters in a lineup that lacks impact at most positions. Ezequiel Tovar (4.80) and Edouard Julien (4.86) are league-average contributors at best. The Rockies project to the weakest position player core in the division, and unlike a team rebuilding with youth, there is not a lot of upside waiting in the wings here.
The pitching projects even worse. Kyle Freeland (6.14) and Tomoyuki Sugano (5.78) are genuine liabilities in the rotation. Chase Dollander (5.38) is an interesting young arm, but the projection suggests he is not yet ready to pitch at the level the Rockies need. Jose Quintana (4.73) and Michael Lorenzen (4.97) are the most presentable arms on a staff that projects as the worst in baseball. Victor Vodnik (4.65) is a below-average closer.
There is very little to say for optimism in Denver. Until the Rockies make a meaningful commitment to building a competitive roster, the division will continue to pass them by.
Pinto writes: I would love to see Paul DePodesta make a great front office comeback by building a winner in Colorado.
Predictions
Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.
The NL West is the least competitive division in baseball on paper. The Dodgers are not just the best team in the division; at .741 core winning percentage they project as one of the most dominant teams in recent memory by this measure. The Giants, Diamondbacks, and Padres will battle for wild cards, with the Giants having the most balanced case and the Diamondbacks the most interesting upside if the rotation surprises. Colorado will lose a lot of games, and the rest of the division will thank them for it.
Pinto writes: I tend not to go big on division winner probabilities. Too many things can go wrong during a season. Yet I find myself unable to come up with a better number than 65%. It’s LA’s game.
The 2026 division previews begin with the AL East. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcel projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.
The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.
New York Yankees
Aaron Judge projects at 10.96 RC/G, the highest of any player in the division by a wide margin, and among the highest in baseball. He plays the 2026 season at seasonal age 34, and the Marcels build in a slight decline from his peak, but Judge has been so extraordinary that even a regressed version of him towers over everyone else in the lineup. His presence alone lifts the Yankees to the top of the division.
Beyond Judge, the lineup is solid without being spectacular. Cody Bellinger (5.78) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (5.47) are the best supporting players. The concern at the bottom of the order is Giancarlo Stanton, who at seasonal age 36 projects to 4.93 RC/G — a useful hitter, but one whose durability has been a persistent issue. If Stanton misses significant time, the Yankees need someone to step up at DH.
The pitching has a legitimate ace in Max Fried at 3.59 RC/G, and Cam Schlittler projects well at 3.83 for what could be a breakout season from the young right-hander. Luis Gil (4.15) is a solid mid-rotation arm. The worry is Will Warren, who projects to 5.14 RC/G — a drag on what is otherwise a respectable staff. Ryan Weathers at 4.88 is no sure thing either. David Bednar at 4.02 is a reliable if unspectacular closer.
The Yankees lead the division in up-the-middle strength at 4.80. That core is harder to upgrade via trade, but it also means fewer holes for opposing managers to exploit. This looks like the class of the AL East.
Pinto writes: There is upside here as well with both Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon working back from injury. Note that both are well past their primes, however, making a superstar comeback less probable.
The offense depends heavily on Judge. An injury or a prolonged slump provides the rest of the division with an opening.
Boston Red Sox
Roman Anthony arrives. The Red Sox prospect projects at 6.82 RC/G in left field, which would make him the third-best offensive player in the division. He will play 2026 at seasonal age 22, firmly in his pre-prime years, which means the Marcels projection could be conservative if he continues to develop. A player this young with this projection is the kind of upside that changes a pennant race.
The Red Sox don’t rely on Anthony alone. Jarren Duran (5.87), Willson Contreras (5.77), and Wilyer Abreu (5.51) give Boston a deep and balanced lineup. Unlike the Yankees, whose offense rises and falls largely with Judge, the Red Sox spread the production around — five of the nine projected starters come in above 5.00 RC/G. There is no black hole in this order.
The pitching is quietly the best in the division. Garrett Crochet at 3.50 RC/G has established himself as one of the better left-handed starters in the AL. Sonny Gray (4.37), Ranger Suarez (4.45), and Brayan Bello (4.53) round out a rotation that projects as the deepest in the division. At the back end, Aroldis Chapman at 3.32 RC/G is the most effective closer in the division, which is remarkable at seasonal age 38. Every year he’s still effective is a gift.
The Red Sox project as the most balanced team in the division, and balance tends to produce resilience over a 162-game season. If Anthony is as good as advertised, Boston will push the Yankees hard all year.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have put together a competitive roster, though the numbers don’t jump off the page. Jonathan Aranda (6.34) and Yandy Diaz (6.23) are legitimate offensive contributors, and Junior Caminero (5.81 at third base) is one of the more exciting young players in the AL. The offense has real pop, particularly at the corners.
The problem is the middle of the diamond. At 4.21, the Rays have the weakest up-the-middle average in the division. Nick Fortes at catcher projects to just 3.34 RC/G, a significant liability. Carson Williams at shortstop (4.26) is young enough to develop, but projects below average right now. Those are difficult spots to upgrade from the bench mid-season, and they make this offense harder to improve at the trade deadline.
Shane McClanahan’s return to health is the key story for the rotation. After significant injury time, he projects to 4.50 RC/G — solid, but well below what he showed at his peak. Drew Rasmussen (3.40 RC/G) is the true ace of this staff and one of the more underrated starters in the American League. Ryan Pepiot (4.05) is a nice piece in the middle of the rotation. Griffin Jax (3.82) projects as one of the better closers in the division.
The Rays will compete, as they always seem to do, but the weakness up the middle and the distance between their best hitters and the rest of the lineup put a ceiling on how far they can go.
Pinto writes: The Rays offensive weakness up the middle might be balanced by the defensive capabilities of the players. No one on the Rays is a ever a warm body, they usually contribute something.
Baltimore Orioles
Gunnar Henderson at 6.78 RC/G is one of the premier players in the American League, and he gives Baltimore the best up-the-middle core in the division at 5.24. He anchors an offense that also features Pete Alonso (5.80) at first base and Adley Rutschman (5.11) behind the plate. The Orioles have a respectable lineup from top to bottom, with the only soft spot being Samuel Basallo at DH, who projects to 4.26 RC/G.
The pitching is where the uncertainty lies. Kyle Bradish at 3.41 RC/G projects as the best starter on the staff — when healthy. He missed significant time in 2025, and that qualifier is doing a lot of work. Trevor Rogers (3.98) and Shane Baz (4.46) are solid complements if they stay in the rotation. Chris Bassitt (5.27 RC/G) is a drag on the rotation and probably the most likely spot where the Orioles look to upgrade. Ryan Helsley closing at 4.41 is among the less effective closers in the division, which is a meaningful weakness in tight games.
The Orioles have youth and genuine talent on the position player side. Coby Mayo (seasonal age 24) has upside at third base beyond his 4.43 projection. Whether the rotation can stay healthy is the difference between the Orioles competing for the division title and finishing in the bottom half.
Pinto writes: We tend to expect good teams what suffer poor seasons to regress to being good again. The 2026 Orioles might be a good example of this. Note some upside as well as Jackson Holliday starts the season on the illjured list after hamate surgery in mid February.
Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at 7.19 RC/G is the engine of the Blue Jays offense and one of the five best hitters in the division. After that, the supporting cast is thin. Andres Gimenez at shortstop (3.97) and Ernie Clement at second base (4.56) project as below-average offensive contributors. Daulton Varsho in center (4.53) is similar. The Blue Jays rank second-worst in up-the-middle strength at 4.50, making upgrades during the season harder to find.
George Springer (5.42 as DH) and Alejandro Kirk (4.92) are solid contributors, but the lineup outside of Vladdy lacks the kind of impact hitters who can carry a team through rough stretches. When Vladdy goes cold, Toronto is going to struggle to score runs.
Kevin Gausman (4.10 RC/G) is the most reliable starter on the staff and needs to stay healthy for this team to have any chance. Dylan Cease (4.32) gives the rotation a second respectable arm. The back end is the problem: Eric Lauer (4.93), Cody Ponce (4.50), and Max Scherzer (5.36) bring the rotation average up considerably, and Scherzer at seasonal age 41 is unlikely to outperform that projection. Jeff Hoffman (3.94) is a decent closer.
Toronto projects at the bottom of the AL East, but Vladdy’s presence means they can never be written off entirely. If the rotation finds some unexpected consistency and Gimenez or Varsho outperforms, they could compete for a wild card. The ingredients for a surprise are not entirely absent, just thin.
Pinto writes: See the Orioles comment in the opposite direction. The Blue Jays likely overperformed in 2025, so they might regress some in 2026. The loss of Bo Bichette and the aging of George Springer makes that problem worse.
Predictions
Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.
The AL East shapes up as a two-team race between the Yankees and the Red Sox, with the Yankees holding a meaningful edge thanks to Judge’s projection. But the Red Sox have the most balanced team in the division, and Roman Anthony gives them a young star with significant upside. The Rays, Orioles, and Blue Jays will be fighting for wild card spots if things break right, and in this division, things can break right in a hurry.
Due to the lack of time because of my recovery from surgery, I have once again asked Claude.AI to help me write. In this case, Claude.AI will do the bulk of the lifting on the division previews. I fed the AI all six of my previews from 2025, along with the spreadsheet used to calculate my crude core winning percentage. This is the prompt I used to see if Claude.AI understood the assignment:
I would like your help writing division previews for my blog, baseball musings.com. I am attaching three files to train you on how I write these. One will be a spreadsheet with the data used to write the posts for each of the six divisions from 2025. The second is all six division previews in one text file, separated by dashed lines. The third is an example of the markup used in each post.
The idea is that I look at the core offense and run prevention for each team. I use the starting nine batters according to the FanGraphs roster resource, the five man rotation, and the closer. I then calculate a runs created per 27 outs for each person (generate by a batter, generated against a pitcher), and from those figure out a core winning percentage. I also like to look at strength up the middle, as that can be a sign of a team that can be easier to improve via trade. Let me know that you understand the files from 2025, and then I will give you the 2026 data file.
Claude.AI responded:
Got it. Here’s what I’ve absorbed from the 2025 files:
Spreadsheet structure — each sheet is one division, with five teams side by side. Each team has nine position players (C through DH) with individual RC/G projections, five starters, a closer, and then computed rows: Position Player Avg., Starters Avg., Pitcher Avg. (90/10 weighted), Core Difference, Core WPCT, and Up the Middle (C/2B/SS/CF average).
Post structure — each division post follows this template:
- Boilerplate intro explaining the RC/G methodology, Marcel projections, FanGraphs Roster Resource sourcing, and the spreadsheet link
- Caveat that CWP will be high by design — it’s for comparison within a division, not a win% prediction
- One section per team: bold team name, three bullets (Position Player RC/G, Pitcher RC/G, Core WPCT), then analytical paragraphs
- Predictions section with division-win probability percentages for each team, plus a closing paragraph
What drives the analysis:
- Rankings within the division on offense, pitching, and up-the-middle strength
- Age profile (pre-prime upside vs. aging core decline baked into Marcels)
- Injury history and recovery status
- Gaps between projected stars and the rest of the lineup
- Up-the-middle strength as a proxy for trade flexibility
Markup — WordPress block format, with Baseball-Reference links on player names, Google Sheets links for the spreadsheet and batter/pitcher Marcel data.
So the previews are written by Claude.AI. I will edit them, checking to make sure things like seasonal age are correct. When I have something to add, you will see in bold, “Pinto writes.”
We live in remarkable times. We have the ability to see inside the human body and catch problems early. Robotic surgery means I’m recovering twice as fast, with less pain and fatigue than in the past for a human only procedure. I have a tool that can write in my voice, allowing me to prepare for the season in a fraction of the time. Don’t let anyone ever tell you the past was better.
This spreadsheet contains the results for the 2026 Team Offense Series. What does the data tell us about teams in 2026?
The Yankees and Dodgers appear to own the top two offenses again. New York beat out Los Angeles last season. In 2026, the Dodgers default lineup projects to score half a run more per game than the Yankees. That’s 0.9 runs per game more than the median projection. Note that both these teams capture about 80% of the optimum lineup. That’s important as both teams have large spreads between the best and worst batting orders, meaning they are more superstar dependent. If Shohei Ohtani or Aaron judge does down with a long injury, the offenses might be in trouble.
The Athletics, Braves, and Astros looks like the biggest movers to the upside. The A’s go from 12th to 3rd, the Braves from 13th to 4th, and the Astros from 21 to 9th. The team that now plays in Sacramento moves on the continued development of a young core. The Braves and Astros likely move on a healthier roster and some regression to the mean after down years.
The Pirates also make a big move, from last to 15th, meaning their offense should be league average. This should give them a chance to win most of Paul Skenes’ starts, and a chance to go .500 the rest of the way. That’s a recipe for a playoff berth.
The biggest falls belong to the Brewers and Blue Jays. Milwaukee drops from third to 20th. Note that the trade of Caleb Durbin hurts the offense compare to last season. The Brewers have a way of finding talent, however, so I don’t have lot of confidence in this prediction. Toronto drops from fourth to 22nd, notably losing Bo Bichette. At seasonal age 36, George Springer is unlikely to post another 4-5 WAR season.
The Cardinals fall from 19th to last as they undergo a rebuild. Both the Rockies and Guardians, which finished near the bottom of the majors in terms or runs per game in 2025, look like they will stay down.
The Twins, Royals, Cubs, and Brewers do the worst jobs of capturing the potential of the optimum lineup. The Reds, Braves, Phillies, and Angels do the best job.
Have fun with the data!
Claude.AI writes (light edits): The Pittsburgh Pirates averaged 3.60 runs per game in 2025, last in the majors and last in the National League. Manager Don Kelly takes over the worst offense in baseball, a lineup that added Marcell Ozuna and Spencer Horwitz in hopes of meaningful improvement. I used the FanGraphs depth chart to set the lineup, Musings Marcel projections for OBA and slugging, and the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) to run the analysis. The full results spreadsheet is available as well.
| Player | Position | OBA | Slugging |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz | CF | .314 | .415 |
| Ryan O’Hearn | RF | .338 | .429 |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | .326 | .422 |
| Marcell Ozuna | DH | .349 | .472 |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | .311 | .452 |
| Nick Gonzalez | SS | .310 | .386 |
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | .345 | .425 |
| Jared Triolo | 3B | .316 | .356 |
| Joey Bart | C | .332 | .385 |
I ran the lineup through the LAT, which produced the following range of outcomes:
| Best | Probable | Worst | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.684 | 4.614 | 4.442 | 0.242 |
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Spencer Horwitz |
| 2 | Marcell Ozuna |
| 3 | Joey Bart |
| 4 | Brandon Lowe |
| 5 | Ryan O’Hearn |
| 6 | Oneil Cruz |
| 7 | Bryan Reynolds |
| 8 | Nick Gonzalez |
| 9 | Jared Triolo |
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Oneil Cruz |
| 2 | Jared Triolo |
| 3 | Bryan Reynolds |
| 4 | Joey Bart |
| 5 | Nick Gonzalez |
| 6 | Spencer Horwitz |
| 7 | Ryan O’Hearn |
| 8 | Marcell Ozuna |
| 9 | Brandon Lowe |
The LAT projects the Pirates at 4.614 runs per game, a dramatic improvement over their 3.60 actual in 2025. That gap — more than a full run per game — warrants some skepticism. Marcel projections naturally regress toward the mean, and a team that scored as poorly as Pittsburgh did in 2025 will see its players projected considerably better than their actual performance. The additions of Marcell Ozuna and Spencer Horwitz also contribute genuine improvement, but perhaps not quite a run per game worth.
The most notable result is Spencer Horwitz leading off in virtually every top lineup. His .345 OBA is second on the roster only to Ozuna’s .349, and the LAT values his on-base ability at the top more than his modest .425 slugging might suggest for a middle-of-the-order role. This is a counterintuitive deployment for a player acquired primarily as a run producer, but the model makes a reasonable case.
Marcell Ozuna is the clear offensive centerpiece, projecting at .349/.472 — leading the roster in both categories. The LAT slots him second in the best lineup, pairing him directly behind Horwitz to maximize his plate appearances with a runner on base. In practice, Don Kelly may well bat Ozuna third or fourth given his profile as a traditional power hitter.
The worst lineups commit the double error of batting Ozuna eighth and Brandon Lowe ninth — burying the two highest sluggers at the bottom while leading off with Cruz and Triolo. The 0.242-run spread between best and worst is modest by the standards of this series, reflecting a roster where several players cluster in a similar offensive range, but the errors in the worst lineups are vivid nonetheless.
This is the final post in the 2026 Team Offense series. Across all 30 teams, the LAT has consistently rewarded high on-base percentage at the top of the order and high slugging in the middle — a reminder that the fundamentals of lineup construction haven’t changed even as the game has evolved.
Pinto writes: Note that Oneil Cruz leads off in the default lineup, and the LAT bats him leadoff in the worst lineup! Cruz never produced a high OBP in anything close to a full season, and his K rate is tremendous. I don’t understand why the Pirates would slot him there. Outs are the currency of baseball, and Cruz spends too many.
Previous posts in this series:
The Colorado Rockies averaged 3.69 runs per game in 2025, twenty-ninth in the majors and fourteenth in the National League. Manager Warren Schaeffer takes over one of baseball’s most offensively challenged rosters, with a lineup that lacks a clear standout hitter. I used the FanGraphs depth chart to set the lineup, Musings Marcel projections for OBA and slugging, and the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) to run the analysis. The full results spreadsheet is available as well.
| Player | Position | OBA | Slugging |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCarthy | LF | .312 | .380 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | .304 | .435 |
| Hunter Goodman | C | .305 | .476 |
| Mickey Moniak | DH | .298 | .462 |
| Jordan Beck | RF | .312 | .402 |
| Willi Castro | 3B | .325 | .386 |
| Brenton Doyle | CF | .292 | .397 |
| Troy Johnston | 1B | .319 | .403 |
| Edouard Julien | 2B | .328 | .388 |
I ran the lineup through the LAT, which produced the following range of outcomes:
| Best | Probable | Worst | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.378 | 4.297 | 4.148 | 0.230 |
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Edouard Julien |
| 2 | Troy Johnston |
| 3 | Jake McCarthy |
| 4 | Hunter Goodman |
| 5 | Jordan Beck |
| 6 | Mickey Moniak |
| 7 | Ezequiel Tovar |
| 8 | Brenton Doyle |
| 9 | Willi Castro |
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Mickey Moniak |
| 2 | Brenton Doyle |
| 3 | Ezequiel Tovar |
| 4 | Jake McCarthy |
| 5 | Jordan Beck |
| 6 | Edouard Julien |
| 7 | Willi Castro |
| 8 | Troy Johnston |
| 9 | Hunter Goodman |
The LAT projects the Rockies at 4.297 runs per game — a significant improvement over their 3.69 actual in 2025, but that gap likely reflects Coors Field not being accounted for in either direction by the Marcel projections, plus regression to the mean for a team that underperformed badly. The spread of 0.230 runs between best and worst is the smallest in this series, which tells a story in itself: this roster is so tightly clustered in offensive ability that lineup order barely matters. There is no Ramirez, no Witt, no player who clearly needs to bat at the top.
The projections bear this out. The range from best hitter (Willi Castro at .325/.386) to worst (Brenton Doyle at .292/.397) is remarkably compressed. No one on this roster projects above .330 OBA or above .480 slugging. Hunter Goodman leads in slugging at .476, and the LAT rewards that by slotting him fourth. His OBA of .305 is mediocre, but his power is the closest thing this lineup has to a true run-producer.
Pinto writes: Power seems to be the strength of the lineup, so I’m not too surprised they concentrated that, instead of OBP, at the top of the order.
Previous posts in this series:
Claude.AI writes (light edits): The Cleveland Guardians averaged 3.97 runs per game in 2025, twenty-eighth in the majors and last in the American League. Manager Stephen Vogt returns with a lineup anchored by Jose Ramirez but thin on complementary offensive talent. I used the FanGraphs depth chart to set the lineup, Musings Marcel projections for OBA and slugging, and the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) to run the analysis. The full results spreadsheet is available as well.
| Player | Position | OBA | Slugging |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | CF | .339 | .391 |
| Angel Martinez | LF | .294 | .376 |
| Jose Ramirez | 3B | .342 | .486 |
| Kyle Manzardo | 1B | .314 | .447 |
| Rhys Hoskins | DH | .314 | .413 |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | .317 | .402 |
| Gabriel Arias | SS | .286 | .380 |
| Bo Naylor | C | .295 | .393 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 2B | .304 | .351 |
I ran the lineup through the LAT, which produced the following range of outcomes:
| Best | Probable | Worst | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.323 | 4.263 | 4.037 | 0.286 |
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan |
| 2 | Jose Ramirez |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter |
| 4 | Kyle Manzardo |
| 5 | Rhys Hoskins |
| 6 | Bo Naylor |
| 7 | Angel Martinez |
| 8 | Gabriel Arias |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio |
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriel Arias |
| 2 | Angel Martinez |
| 3 | Rhys Hoskins |
| 4 | Brayan Rocchio |
| 5 | Bo Naylor |
| 6 | Steven Kwan |
| 7 | Chase DeLauter |
| 8 | Jose Ramirez |
| 9 | Kyle Manzardo |
The LAT projects the Guardians at 4.263 runs per game, a modest improvement over their 3.97 actual in 2025 but still among the lowest projections in this series. The spread of 0.286 runs between best and worst is notable for a lineup that doesn’t have many high-end offensive performers — it suggests the few good hitters really do need to be deployed correctly.
Jose Ramirez is the story of this lineup, as he has been for years. His .342/.486 projection leads the roster in both OBA and slugging by a comfortable margin. The LAT slots him second rather than anywhere else, which reflects his dual value as both an on-base threat and a power hitter. Vogt is unlikely to bat Ramirez second — he has typically hit third or fourth — but the model suggests the difference from optimal isn’t enormous as long as he’s near the top of the order.
Steven Kwan leads off in every top lineup, a clean result. His .339 OBA is second on the roster and his value is well understood — he gets on base, doesn’t clog the basepaths, and sets the table for Ramirez. This is one of the more conventional-looking best lineups in the series, which says something about the Guardians’ lineup construction instincts.
The weakness of this roster is stark in the projections. Gabriel Arias at .286/.380 and Angel Martinez at .294/.376 project as the two worst hitters, and the LAT buries them both near the bottom. Brayan Rocchio at .304/.351 has the lowest slugging on the roster and bats ninth. None of these are players who would start for most contenders.
The worst lineups commit the cardinal sin of batting Ramirez eighth and Manzardo ninth — burying the two best power threats at the bottom while leading off with Arias and Martinez. The 0.286 run gap between best and worst represents roughly 46 runs over a full season, which for a team that scored under 4 runs per game in 2025 is a meaningful difference.
Pinto writes: Over the years of doing this series I can usually tell when a lineup will match the LAT well or not. The agreement between the two surprised me. It turns out that Kwan, Manzardo, Hoskins, and Rocchio in the right slots helps a lot.
I do not understand the placement in the default lineup of Martinez in the second slot. He produced a good spring, but anything can happen in 40 PA. His minor league numbers are fine, but not enough that he would make a great table setter. If Vogt is right and Martinez turned a corner, we could see a much higher scoring team.
All in all, this lineup is a disappointment. The Guardians won the AL Central finishing last in run scored in the AL. It will be tough to repeat that, and Cleveland did little to make this offense better.
Previous posts in this series:
Claude.AI writes (light edits): The Chicago White Sox averaged 3.99 runs per game in 2025, twenty-seventh in the majors and fourteenth in the American League. Manager Will Venable takes over a rebuilding lineup heavy with young players still developing at the major league level. I used the FanGraphs depth chart to set the lineup, Musings Marcel projections for OBA and slugging, and the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) to run the analysis. The full results spreadsheet is available as well.
| Player | Position | OBA | Slugging |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | .332 | .361 |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | .319 | .482 |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | .307 | .379 |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | .338 | .446 |
| Austin Hays | RF | .313 | .429 |
| Andrew Benintendi | LF | .306 | .393 |
| Lenyn Sosa | DH | .294 | .408 |
| Edgar Quero | C | .336 | .390 |
| LuisAngel Acuna | CF | .317 | .382 |
I ran the lineup through the LAT, which produced the following range of outcomes:
| Best | Probable | Worst | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.468 | 4.399 | 4.185 | 0.283 |
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Edgar Quero |
| 2 | Munetaka Murakami |
| 3 | LuisAngel Acuna |
| 4 | Colson Montgomery |
| 5 | Austin Hays |
| 6 | Lenyn Sosa |
| 7 | Andrew Benintendi |
| 8 | Miguel Vargas |
| 9 | Chase Meidroth |
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Lenyn Sosa |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas |
| 3 | Austin Hays |
| 4 | Chase Meidroth |
| 5 | Andrew Benintendi |
| 6 | Edgar Quero |
| 7 | LuisAngel Acuna |
| 8 | Munetaka Murakami |
| 9 | Colson Montgomery |
The LAT projects the White Sox at 4.399 runs per game, a step up from their 3.99 actual in 2025, though that improvement likely reflects Marcel projections regressing young players toward league average rather than genuine expected gains. The spread of 0.283 runs between best and worst is meaningful for a roster with this level of talent variation.
The most intriguing result is Edgar Quero leading off in every top lineup. His .336 OBA leads the roster, and despite modest slugging, the LAT values his on-base skills at the top of the order ahead of more prominent names. Quero is a young catcher still establishing himself, and if his Marcel projection is even approximately right, he could be a genuine offensive asset.
Pinto writes: I would bat Quero second because he is a catcher. It’s unfortunate, as his minor league numbers indicate he would be a good table setter. Maybe ninth is a better place, as he adjusts to the major league game.
For Murakami, I used the median projection at FanGraphs, as he is not really a rookie.
There are four pre-prime players in his line up, and while it doesn’t project to be great, we should see some improvement with plenty of upside.
Previous posts in this series:
Claude.AI writes (light edits): The Kansas City Royals averaged 4.02 runs per game in 2025, twenty-sixth in the majors and thirteenth in the American League. Manager Matt Quatraro looks to improve an offense that ranked near the bottom of the AL, built around shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. I used the FanGraphs depth chart to set the lineup, Musings Marcel projections for OBA and slugging, and the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) to run the analysis. The full results spreadsheet is available as well.
| Player | Position | OBA | Slugging |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia | 3B | .327 | .397 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | .356 | .521 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | .318 | .452 |
| Salvador Perez | C | .297 | .428 |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | .285 | .359 |
| Jonathan India | 2B | .336 | .381 |
| Carter Jensen | DH | .346 | .467 |
| Isaac Collins | LF | .345 | .401 |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | .296 | .374 |
I ran the lineup through the LAT, which produced the following range of outcomes:
| Best | Probable | Worst | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.717 | 4.538 | 4.360 | 0.357 |
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Isaac Collins |
| 2 | Bobby Witt Jr. |
| 3 | Maikel Garcia |
| 4 | Vinnie Pasquantino |
| 5 | Carter Jensen |
| 6 | Salvador Perez |
| 7 | Kyle Isbel |
| 8 | Jac Caglianone |
| 9 | Jonathan India |
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Salvador Perez |
| 2 | Jac Caglianone |
| 3 | Carter Jensen |
| 4 | Jonathan India |
| 5 | Kyle Isbel |
| 6 | Isaac Collins |
| 7 | Maikel Garcia |
| 8 | Bobby Witt Jr. |
| 9 | Vinnie Pasquantino |
The LAT projects the Royals at 4.538 runs per game, a significant improvement over their 4.02 actual in 2025. The spread of 0.357 runs between best and worst is one of the largest in this series — a clear sign that lineup construction matters considerably for this roster. The Royals have enough talent variation that how Quatraro arranges his lineup will have a real impact on the offense.
Bobby Witt Jr. is the unquestioned centerpiece, projecting at .356/.521 — both figures comfortably leading the roster. The LAT puts him second in the best lineup, right behind leadoff hitter Isaac Collins. That pairing reflects a recurring theme in the LAT results: the model wants a high-OBA player at the top to set the table for the best overall hitter batting second.
Isaac Collins leading off is the most surprising result for outside observers. His .345/.401 projection is strong for a player who may not be widely recognized, and the LAT values his combination of OBA and moderate slugging at the top of the order. Jonathan India batting ninth in the best lineup — at .336/.381 — is the corresponding surprise; his OBA is solid but his slugging is among the lowest on the roster, and the LAT prefers to use the ninth slot as a second leadoff spot rather than a traditional weak hitter position.
Jac Caglianone presents the most difficult lineup puzzle. His .285/.359 projection is the weakest on the roster in both categories — the LAT buries him eighth in the best lineup. As a highly-touted prospect, his Marcels reflect heavy regression to the mean with limited MLB track record. If he develops into the power hitter his minor league numbers suggest, these projections will look very conservative by midseason.
The worst lineups bury Witt eighth and Pasquantino ninth — the surest way to waste the Royals’ two best offensive players.
Pinto writes: The default lineup only captures 50% of the optimum lineup. So while the Royals best order beats the Angels by 0.13 runs per game, the default lineup trails the Angels by 0.01 runs per game!
Three players in this lineup own Marcels based on limited MLB experience. As discussed by Claude, Macels probably underrate Caglianone. They may overrate Jensen a bit, but he did well in the high minors at a young age and will play 2026 as a 22-year-old. Collins looks spot on. So it appears the Royals are burying OBP at the bottom of the order so the youngsters an get a feel for the majors.
The seventh best lineup is one I’d like to see, with Witt batting second, Isbel eighth, Jensen fifth and Caglianone seventh. That keeps the veterans in the middle of the order, and allows the youngsters to develop around them. I hope as they do develop, the lineup changes to reflect their actual abilities.
There is a lot of upside to this Royals lineup, and that’s good news.
Previous posts in this series:
Claude.AI writes (light edits): The Los Angeles Angels averaged 4.15 runs per game in 2025, twenty-fifth in the majors and twelfth in the American League. New manager Kurt Suzuki takes over a lineup that hopes to get healthy contributions from Mike Trout while building around a young core. I used the FanGraphs depth chart to set the lineup, Musings Marcel projections for OBA and slugging, and the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) to run the analysis. The full results spreadsheet is available as well.
| Player | Position | OBA | Slugging |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Neto | SS | .324 | .449 |
| Mike Trout | CF | .344 | .446 |
| Nolan Schanuel | 1B | .354 | .390 |
| Yoan Moncada | 3B | .322 | .431 |
| Jorge Soler | DH | .321 | .433 |
| Jo Adell | RF | .294 | .451 |
| Josh Lowe | LF | .307 | .416 |
| Logan O’Hoppe | C | .293 | .409 |
| Adam Frazier | 2B | .303 | .357 |
I ran the lineup through the LAT, which produced the following range of outcomes:
| Best | Probable | Worst | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.587 | 4.552 | 4.313 | 0.274 |
The best lineup the LAT found scores 4.587 runs per game:
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Nolan Schanuel |
| 2 | Mike Trout |
| 3 | Yoan Moncada |
| 4 | Zach Neto |
| 5 | Jorge Soler |
| 6 | Jo Adell |
| 7 | Josh Lowe |
| 8 | Logan O’Hoppe |
| 9 | Adam Frazier |
The worst lineup scores 4.313 runs per game:
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Logan O’Hoppe |
| 2 | Josh Lowe |
| 3 | Zach Neto |
| 4 | Adam Frazier |
| 5 | Jorge Soler |
| 6 | Nolan Schanuel |
| 7 | Yoan Moncada |
| 8 | Mike Trout |
| 9 | Jo Adell |
The LAT projects the Angels at 4.552 runs per game, a step up from their 4.15 actual in 2025, though the spread of 0.274 runs between best and worst is one of the larger gaps in this series. That wider spread reflects a lineup with meaningful talent variation — the Angels have some genuinely good hitters alongside some significant weak spots.
The most interesting result is Nolan Schanuel leading off in the best lineup. His .354 OBA is the highest on the roster, and the LAT values that at the top of the order despite his modest .390 slugging — the lowest on the team. Schanuel is a classic table-setter profile: gets on base at a solid clip but doesn’t hit for power. Batting him first ahead of Trout and the middle-of-the-order sluggers is the theoretically correct deployment.
Mike Trout bats second in the best lineup, which reflects both his .344 OBA and his .446 slugging. At this point in his career, with his injury history, the Marcels are projecting a player who is still very good but no longer the overwhelming force he once was. Even so, a .344/.446 line would be among the better in any lineup in baseball, and the LAT treats him accordingly.
Jo Adell presents a classic power-over-contact profile at .294/.451. His OBA is the lowest on the roster, but his slugging is the highest — a combination the LAT handles by slotting him sixth, where his power is useful but his low OBA does less damage. The worst lineups place him leadoff or second, which illustrates exactly the wrong way to use a player of his type.
The worst lineups bury Trout eighth — a remarkable statement about how badly lineup construction can suppress even a healthy version of one of the game’s best players.
Pinto writes: The Angels nail six of the nine lineup slots recommended by the LAT, agreeing on five through nine and Trout batting second. That captures 85% of the optimum value. That’s best in the AL so far and second only to Cincinnati. I am liking Suzuki as the manager. Neto owns a higher OBP this spring, so maybe he’ll work better at the top than the LAT expects.
The Angels do bring up the rear of the AL West in terms of predicted runs per game, but they, as many of the other teams, look much improved. There should be some fireworks in the division.
Previous posts in this series:
Claude.AI writes (light edits): The Baltimore Orioles averaged 4.18 runs per game in 2025, twenty-fourth in the majors and eleventh in the American League. New manager Craig Albernaz takes over a young lineup with significant upside, anchored by shortstop Gunnar Henderson and catcher Adley Rutschman. I used the FanGraphs depth chart to set the lineup, Musings Marcel projections for OBA and slugging, and the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) to run the analysis. The full results spreadsheet is available as well.
| Player | Position | OBA | Slugging |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | .352 | .489 |
| Taylor Ward | LF | .317 | .436 |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | .330 | .484 |
| Adley Rutschman | C | .333 | .402 |
| Tyler O’Neill | RF | .316 | .437 |
| Samuel Basallo | DH | .297 | .402 |
| Coby Mayo | 3B | .306 | .390 |
| Colton Cowser | CF | .305 | .409 |
| Blaze Alexander | 2B | .321 | .383 |
I ran the lineup through the LAT, which produced the following range of outcomes:
| Best | Probable | Worst | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.652 | 4.590 | 4.400 | 0.252 |
The best lineup the LAT found scores 4.652 runs per game:
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Adley Rutschman |
| 2 | Gunnar Henderson |
| 3 | Coby Mayo |
| 4 | Pete Alonso |
| 5 | Taylor Ward |
| 6 | Tyler O’Neill |
| 7 | Colton Cowser |
| 8 | Samuel Basallo |
| 9 | Blaze Alexander |
The worst lineup scores 4.400 runs per game:
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Samuel Basallo |
| 2 | Coby Mayo |
| 3 | Tyler O’Neill |
| 4 | Blaze Alexander |
| 5 | Colton Cowser |
| 6 | Adley Rutschman |
| 7 | Taylor Ward |
| 8 | Gunnar Henderson |
| 9 | Pete Alonso |
The LAT projects the Orioles at 4.590 runs per game, a meaningful step up from their 4.18 actual in 2025. The spread of 0.252 runs between best and worst is moderate, but the absolute projection is encouraging for a team that underperformed offensively last season.
The most striking result is Adley Rutschman leading off in every top lineup. His .333 OBA ranks second on the roster, and the LAT values that at the top of the order over his modest .402 slugging. In practice, Rutschman has batted in the middle of the order for most of his career given his reputation as a run-producer, but the model makes a compelling case that his greatest value is getting on base ahead of the power bats.
Gunnar Henderson bats second in virtually every top lineup, which makes intuitive sense — his .352/.489 combination gives the Orioles their best overall hitter, and placing him right behind Rutschman maximizes his plate appearances while ensuring he comes up with runners on base. This is one of the cleaner 1-2 combinations in the series.
Pete Alonso cleans up at fourth in the best lineup. His .330/.484 projection reflects what he has been throughout his career — a legitimate power threat with decent plate discipline. The Orioles traded for him to fill exactly this role, and the LAT confirms he belongs in the heart of the order.
The worst lineups bury Henderson eighth and Alonso ninth — the classic misuse of power hitters that the LAT consistently penalizes. Blaze Alexander batting cleanup in the worst lineup, at .321/.383, illustrates just how badly things can go wrong when lineup construction ignores the relationship between OBA and run production.
Pinto writes: I suspect in the case of the Orioles there are three disconnects between the Marcels projections as how the Orioles see reality, rather than a lineup that doesn’t agree with the LAT interpretation. Rutschman appears to have peaked in 2023, as his offense collapsed the last two seasons, right in the middle of his prime. Catching can do that to a player, but it also may just be some nagging injury(s) that have resolved. He posted a good spring, and more power off his bat makes him a fit in the middle of the order. He hit well this spring.
Two other hitters, Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo own projections on a very small MLB sample. Their minor league records indicate better future performance, and they also posted good springs. The bottom line is that Marcels and the LAT may be underestimating this team a lot.
I will also note that while many teams are moving back to the traditional worst hitter in the ninth slot, the Orioles go with Blaze Alexander who should do a decent job getting on base in front of Henderson.
I am optimistic about the Orioles offense this season.
Previous posts in this series:
Claude.AI writes (light edits): The Minnesota Twins averaged 4.19 runs per game in 2025, twenty-third in the majors and tenth in the American League. Manager Derek Shelton looks to improve an offense that struggled last season, with a lineup that blends veterans like Byron Buxton and Josh Bell with younger contributors. I used the FanGraphs depth chart to set the lineup, Musings Marcel projections for OBA and slugging, and the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) to run the analysis. The full results spreadsheet is available as well.
| Player | Position | OBA | Slugging |
|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | CF | .318 | .493 |
| Josh Bell | 1B | .319 | .405 |
| Luke Keaschall | 2B | .353 | .439 |
| Matt Wallner | RF | .333 | .463 |
| Victor Caratini | DH | .322 | .403 |
| Trevor Larnach | LF | .325 | .414 |
| Royce Lewis | 3B | .309 | .434 |
| Ryan Jeffers | C | .334 | .429 |
| Brooks Lee | SS | .297 | .378 |
I ran the lineup through the LAT, which produced the following range of outcomes:
| Best | Probable | Worst | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.755 | 4.626 | 4.505 | 0.250 |
The best lineup the LAT found scores 4.755 runs per game:
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Keaschall |
| 2 | Matt Wallner |
| 3 | Trevor Larnach |
| 4 | Byron Buxton |
| 5 | Ryan Jeffers |
| 6 | Royce Lewis |
| 7 | Josh Bell |
| 8 | Brooks Lee |
| 9 | Victor Caratini |
The worst lineup scores 4.505 runs per game:
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Royce Lewis |
| 2 | Brooks Lee |
| 3 | Matt Wallner |
| 4 | Victor Caratini |
| 5 | Josh Bell |
| 6 | Ryan Jeffers |
| 7 | Trevor Larnach |
| 8 | Luke Keaschall |
| 9 | Byron Buxton |
The LAT projects the Twins at 4.626 runs per game, a step up from their 4.19 actual in 2025, though the spread of just 0.250 runs between best and worst is one of the tighter ranges in this series. This is a relatively balanced lineup without a dominant standout — no one player projects as a clear offensive force the way Yordan Alvarez does for the Astros or Corey Seager for the Rangers.
The most striking result is Byron Buxton batting fourth in the best lineup. His .318/.493 projection gives him the highest slugging on the roster by a meaningful margin, and the LAT rewards pure slugging at the cleanup spot. In practice, Buxton’s chronic injury history makes it difficult to build a lineup around him as an everyday anchor, but when healthy he is clearly the Twins’ most dangerous hitter.
Luke Keaschall leads off in every top lineup, which is a notable statement about this roster. As a prospect with limited MLB track record, his Marcel projection of .353/.439 reflects significant regression to the mean — his actual numbers could be higher or lower. If Keaschall develops into the hitter his minor league performance suggests, he could be a genuine asset at the top of this order.
The worst lineups bury Buxton ninth and Keaschall eighth — the most damaging possible misuse of the two players the LAT most values. Buxton ninth is a particularly vivid illustration of how instinct-based lineup construction can go wrong when managers slot their power hitter low in the order based on injury concerns or platoon considerations rather than production.
Pinto writes: When I entered this lineup into the LAT I thought it was one of worst lineups I’ve seen. Just Buxton/Bell for Keaschall/Wallner would do a much better job. The lineup only captures 48% of the optimum batting order, the lowest of any team studied so far and the only team under 50%. I looked back a few years and Shelton doesn’t have a history of bad lineups. He may just want to make Buxton happy by batting him lead-off.
That said he splits the lineup correctly. The top four agree with a number of the best lineups in terms of personnel, and do the bottom five. Jeffers seems really out of place in the eighth hole. Musings Marcels are kinder to him in terms of slugging than many of the projections listed at FanGraphs, but his OBP is reasonable. He should bat higher in the order.
Previous posts in this series:
Claude.AI writes (light edits): The Texas Rangers averaged 4.22 runs per game in 2025, twenty-second in the majors and ninth in the American League. New manager Skip Schumaker takes over a lineup anchored by shortstop Corey Seager and featuring several new additions. I used the FanGraphs depth chart to set the lineup, Musings Marcel projections for OBA and slugging, and the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) to run the analysis. The full results spreadsheet is available as well.
| Player | Position | OBA | Slugging |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | .329 | .423 |
| Wyatt Langford | LF | .339 | .432 |
| Corey Seager | SS | .358 | .506 |
| Jake Burger | 1B | .297 | .450 |
| Joc Pederson | DH | .334 | .416 |
| Evan Carter | CF | .329 | .419 |
| Josh Jung | 3B | .304 | .417 |
| Josh Smith | 2B | .329 | .380 |
| Danny Jansen | C | .313 | .395 |
I ran the lineup through the LAT, which produced the following range of outcomes:
| Best | Probable | Worst | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.766 | 4.696 | 4.512 | 0.254 |
The best lineup the LAT found scores 4.766 runs per game:
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Joc Pederson |
| 2 | Wyatt Langford |
| 3 | Evan Carter |
| 4 | Corey Seager |
| 5 | Brandon Nimmo |
| 6 | Jake Burger |
| 7 | Josh Jung |
| 8 | Danny Jansen |
| 9 | Josh Smith |
The worst lineup scores 4.512 runs per game:
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Jung |
| 2 | Danny Jansen |
| 3 | Brandon Nimmo |
| 4 | Josh Smith |
| 5 | Evan Carter |
| 6 | Joc Pederson |
| 7 | Wyatt Langford |
| 8 | Corey Seager |
| 9 | Jake Burger |
The LAT projects the Rangers at 4.696 runs per game, a meaningful improvement over their 4.22 actual in 2025. The spread of 0.254 runs between best and worst is on the tighter side, reflecting a lineup where several players cluster in a similar production range.
Seager remains the best hitter on the roster, projecting at .358/.506 — numbers that comfortably lead the team in both categories. The LAT slots him fourth in the best lineup, which is the traditional cleanup role and likely where Schumaker will bat him as well. When a team’s best hitter also fits naturally in the conventional spot, lineup optimization becomes considerably simpler.
The most surprising element of the best lineup is Pederson leadoff. His .334/.416 projection ranks him among the better on-base options on the roster, and the LAT rewards that by putting him at the top of the order ahead of Langford and Seager. In practice, Pederson is more likely to bat in the middle of the order given his left-handed power profile, but the model is simply following the numbers.
Langford at .339/.432 gives the Rangers a legitimate second offensive force. He’s young enough that his Marcel projection may be conservative, and if he takes a step forward in 2026, the Rangers’ offense could look considerably better than these projections suggest.
The worst lineups bury Seager eighth and Burger ninth — a stark reminder that putting your power hitters at the bottom of the order while leading off with weaker options costs real runs. The LAT is unambiguous about where Seager belongs.
Pinto writes: I like the Langford-Nimmo top of the order. Since the Rangers appear to be batting Jensen ninth, Seager third makes a bit more sense. Texas likely sees the trade off of saving Jansen’s versus a secondary leadoff favoring Jansen’s health.
It also appears the team plans three platoons, as that old strategy seems to be making a comeback. The Rangers also continue the projection of the AL West looking like a high offense division.
Previous posts in this series:
Claude.AI writes (light edits): The Houston Astros averaged 4.23 runs per game in 2025, twenty-first in the majors and eighth in the American League. Manager Joe Espada looks to rebound with a lineup that still features core veterans Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Carlos Correa alongside some newer additions. I used the FanGraphs depth chart to set the lineup, Musings Marcel projections for OBA and slugging, and the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) to run the analysis. The full results spreadsheet is available as well.
| Player | Position | OBA | Slugging |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | 2B | .337 | .441 |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | .339 | .445 |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | .376 | .511 |
| Carlos Correa | SS | .331 | .417 |
| Joey Loperfido | LF | .308 | .402 |
| Cam Smith | RF | .324 | .383 |
| Christian Walker | 1B | .312 | .441 |
| Yainer Diaz | C | .308 | .444 |
| Jake Meyers | CF | .313 | .377 |
I ran the lineup through the LAT, which produced the following range of outcomes:
| Best | Probable | Worst | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.833 | 4.736 | 4.561 | 0.272 |
The best lineup the LAT found scores 4.833 runs per game:
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez |
| 2 | Isaac Paredes |
| 3 | Carlos Correa |
| 4 | Christian Walker |
| 5 | Jose Altuve |
| 6 | Yainer Diaz |
| 7 | Joey Loperfido |
| 8 | Jake Meyers |
| 9 | Cam Smith |
The worst lineup scores 4.561 runs per game:
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Yainer Diaz |
| 2 | Jake Meyers |
| 3 | Jose Altuve |
| 4 | Cam Smith |
| 5 | Joey Loperfido |
| 6 | Carlos Correa |
| 7 | Isaac Paredes |
| 8 | Yordan Alvarez |
| 9 | Christian Walker |
The LAT projects the Astros at 4.736 runs per game, a significant improvement over their 4.23 actual in 2025 and one of the higher projections in the American League. The spread of 0.272 runs between best and worst is moderate, but the absolute numbers here are considerably better than most teams in this series — this is a deeper, more balanced lineup than most.
Yordan Alvarez remains the engine of the offense, projecting at .376/.511. His OBA and slugging both lead the roster by a wide margin, and the LAT wants to put him leadoff in virtually every top lineup. That’s theoretically optimal but practically unlikely — Alvarez has batted cleanup for most of his career and manager Joe Espada is unlikely to move him. The gap between batting Alvarez first versus third or fourth is modest in the LAT results, suggesting the Astros won’t leave many runs on the table regardless of where he hits.
Christian Walker projects at .312/.441 — solid power numbers that the LAT consistently rewards with a cleanup slot. That’s notable because Walker is a right-handed hitter in a lineup that already has significant right-handed presence, yet the model still wants him batting fourth based purely on his production profile.
Isaac Paredes at .339/.445 gives the Astros a second legitimate on-base threat near the top of the lineup. The LAT pairs him with Alvarez repeatedly in the top two slots, which reflects how much this lineup benefits from having multiple high-OBA hitters in front of the power bats.
The worst lineups bury Alvarez and Walker eighth and ninth — a vivid illustration of how badly lineup construction can suppress even a talented offense.
Pinto writes: A healthy Alvarez makes this a much better batting order. Altuve and Correa still hit well, but they are not as intimidating as they once were. Over the next few seasons, we’ll see how Houston moves those two former stars out of the lineup.
The AL West is setting up to be a high scoring division. The three teams profiled so far, the Mariners, the Athletics, and the Astros project to be near the top of the league.
Previous posts in this series:
Claude.AI writes (light edits): The Washington Nationals averaged 4.24 runs per game in 2025, twentieth in the majors and thirteenth in the National League. Manager Blake Butera takes over a young lineup built around outfielder James Wood and shortstop CJ Abrams. I used the FanGraphs depth chart to set the lineup, Musings Marcel projections for OBA and slugging, and the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) to run the analysis. The full results spreadsheet is available as well.
| Player | Position | OBA | Slugging |
|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams | SS | .317 | .431 |
| James Wood | DH | .353 | .464 |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | .291 | .378 |
| Luis Garcia Jr | 1B | .309 | .422 |
| Daylen Lile | LF | .342 | .476 |
| Dylan Crews | RF | .304 | .379 |
| Brady House | 3B | .290 | .375 |
| Nasim Nunez | 2B | .325 | .390 |
| Jacob Young | CF | .311 | .338 |
I ran the lineup through the LAT, which produced the following range of outcomes:
| Best | Probable | Worst | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.415 | 4.356 | 4.130 | 0.285 |
The best lineup the LAT found scores 4.415 runs per game:
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood |
| 2 | Daylen Lile |
| 3 | Dylan Crews |
| 4 | CJ Abrams |
| 5 | Nasim Nunez |
| 6 | Keibert Ruiz |
| 7 | Luis Garcia Jr |
| 8 | Brady House |
| 9 | Jacob Young |
The worst lineup scores 4.130 runs per game:
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Keibert Ruiz |
| 2 | Brady House |
| 3 | Luis Garcia Jr |
| 4 | Jacob Young |
| 5 | Dylan Crews |
| 6 | Nasim Nunez |
| 7 | CJ Abrams |
| 8 | James Wood |
| 9 | Daylen Lile |
The LAT projects the Nationals at 4.356 runs per game, a meaningful step up from their 4.24 actual in 2025 and a sign that this young roster may be on the rise. The spread of 0.285 runs between best and worst is moderate — the Nationals have enough talent variation in the lineup that ordering does matter.
The standout here is Daylen Lile, projecting at .342/.476. As a top prospect likely making his MLB debut in 2026, that slugging mark is the highest on the roster and reflects genuine power potential. Like JJ Wetherholt with the Cardinals, Marcels regress toward the mean for players without MLB track records, so Lile’s actual ceiling could be considerably higher. The LAT slots him second in virtually every top lineup, pairing him directly behind James Wood for maximum run-scoring impact.
James Wood continues to look like the Nationals’ best offensive player, projecting at .353/.464. The LAT consistently leads off with Wood, putting their two best hitters back-to-back at the top of the order. That’s a formidable 1-2 combination for a team that has been rebuilding for several years.
Jacob Young projects at .311/.338 — solid on-base skills but very little power, which is reflected in the LAT consistently placing him ninth. Like Victor Scott II in St. Louis, his value to the team likely extends beyond the batting line.
The worst lineups bury Wood and Lile in the eighth and ninth slots respectively — a reminder that misusing your best hitters costs real runs. The gap between best and worst here is about a quarter of a run per game, which over a 162-game season adds up to roughly 46 runs — the equivalent of four or five wins.
Pinto writes: I am glad Claude picked up on the similarities with the Cardinals. Like St. Louis, the oldest starter in the Washington lineup tops out at peak age. That means the Nationals lineup comes with a low confidence in the predictions, and high upsides to the projections.
House and Lile both play as 23 year old, with more success in the lower minors. If they finally adjust to the higher level of competition, we good see a nice offensive boost for the Nationals.
Going with a young team and giving them a couple of years to develop at the MLB level is a strategy I like. Once the pieces fall into place, the Nationals can plug holes with good veterans with the money to do so.
Previous posts in this series:
Clarude.AI writes (light edits): The St. Louis Cardinals averaged 4.25 runs per game in 2025, nineteenth in the majors and twelfth in the National League. Manager Oliver Marmol returns for 2026 hoping to get more offense out of a lineup built around designated hitter Ivan Herrera and shortstop Masyn Winn. I used the FanGraphs depth chart to set the lineup, Musings Marcel projections for OBA and slugging, and the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) to run the analysis. The full results spreadsheet is available as well.
| Player | Position | OBA | Slugging |
|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | .317 | .402 |
| Masyn Winn | SS | .316 | .395 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | .325 | .427 |
| Ivan Herrera | DH | .365 | .446 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | .305 | .417 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | .308 | .386 |
| Nelson Velazquez | LF | .291 | .396 |
| Pedro Pages | C | .290 | .374 |
| Victor Scott II | CF | .301 | .335 |
I ran the lineup through the LAT, which produced the following range of outcomes:
| Best | Probable | Worst | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.280 | 4.214 | 4.014 | 0.266 |
The best lineup the LAT found scores 4.280 runs per game:
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Ivan Herrera |
| 2 | Alec Burleson |
| 3 | Masyn Winn |
| 4 | Nolan Gorman |
| 5 | JJ Wetherholt |
| 6 | Nelson Velazquez |
| 7 | Jordan Walker |
| 8 | Pedro Pages |
| 9 | Victor Scott II |
The worst lineup scores 4.014 runs per game:
| Slot | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Nelson Velazquez |
| 2 | Pedro Pages |
| 3 | Alec Burleson |
| 4 | Victor Scott II |
| 5 | Jordan Walker |
| 6 | Masyn Winn |
| 7 | JJ Wetherholt |
| 8 | Ivan Herrera |
| 9 | Nolan Gorman |
The LAT projects the Cardinals at 4.214 runs per game, a slight dip from their 4.25 actual in 2025 and still well below the middle of the pack. The spread of 0.266 runs between best and worst lineup is relatively modest, suggesting a fairly uniform group without a dominant middle-of-the-order force — which is both the Cardinals’ challenge and their reality heading into 2026.
Ivan Herrera stands out as the clear offensive engine, projecting at .365/.446 — well above everyone else on the roster. The LAT slots him leadoff in nearly every top lineup, which makes theoretical sense but would be an unconventional deployment for a DH. Manager Oliver Marmol is unlikely to bat his designated hitter first, so some of that best-lineup ceiling is probably out of reach in practice.
The other notable projection is Victor Scott II at .301/.335. His slugging is the lowest on the roster by a significant margin, and the LAT consistently buries him ninth. His value to the Cardinals is built on speed and defense rather than on-base skills, and the projections reflect that. He’s a liability in the lineup but likely a net positive on the field.
JJ Wetherholt is an interesting case. As a highly-touted prospect making his MLB debut, his Marcel projection of .317/.402 is conservative by design — Marcels regress heavily toward the mean for players with little major league track record. If Wetherholt hits closer to his potential, the Cardinals’ offense could look considerably better than these numbers suggest.
The worst lineups all share a common thread: Nelson Velazquez and Pedro Pages near the top of the order. Both project as below-average hitters, and the LAT is unambiguous about keeping them in the lower third of the batting order.
Pinto writes: I’m very impressed Claude picked up on Wetherholt. He plays 2026 as a 23-year-old, and consistently posted .400+ OBPs at every level of the minor leagues, usually with a batting average around .300. This spring, in a very Rickey Henderson like manner, his batting average stands at .214 but his OBP comes in at .405. I did run the analysis with the median FanGraphs projection of .338/.367, and the LAT batted him ninth in those situations. Wetherholt also performed as a high percentage base stealer, so the Cardinals might have a great, long-term solution in the leadoff slot.
Marmol nailed the bottom of the order. Scott did a good job of getting on base until he reached AAA. He may have been old for the lower levels, and found it more difficult to dominate against the tougher competition.
The Cardinals lineup profiles as very young. Pages stands as the oldest player at 27.5 years (current age), so the entire starting lineup is at or below peak. Youth can deliver upside, especially as this group matures together over the next couple of seasons. It may not be a great year for the team, but Cardinals fans like the trajectory of the offense.
Previous posts in this series:
MLB Partnered with Polymarket as the league’s official prediction exchange.
I like prediction markets better than betting markets since you can get out at any time. If you buy the Rockies to win the NL West at 0.01 on opening day, you cash out when they are leading the division by five games on June 1 and selling at 0.40.
In that regard, I hope that these markets avoid extremely short term plays. Game level is probably best (hits in a game, runs in a game, etc.). Let the casinos handle the short action.
Thanks to those who sent kind thoughts my way. It’s now a week since my surgery. I am improving every day, but mostly still wiped out.
In my down time I was able to watch, or at least listen to, some of the WBC championship round. It’s been excellent. The tournament seems to have finally achieved a state where various countries are able to field major league all-star teams, and the series of single elimination games puts a lot on the line. While I was half-a-sleep last night listening to the game, I thought, “This is what the All-Star Game should be.”
The ASG used to be meaningful when the leagues were really separate identities. This proposal tries get players and fans to identify with their division.
So while I can sit up for five minutes, here is a proposal for All-Star week:
So last season, at the break, the AL was ranked East, West, Central, while the NL was ranked Central, East, West. So then on day 1, the AL West Stars would host the AL Central Stars in the early game, while the NL East Stars would host the NL West stars in the late game. Day two, NL Central Stars would visit the NL winner from day 1, i in the early game, and the AL East Stars would visit the AL day 1 winner in the late game. The winners of those two games meet on day four to crown the All-Star Division.
There’s a lot more detail, but I need to get back to bed.
Claude.AI writes (light edits): The San Diego Padres averaged 4.33 runs per game in 2025, eighteenth in the majors and eleventh in the National League. First-year manager Craig Stammen inherits a lineup that remains built around its core of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Xander Bogaerts, with several new additions rounding out the roster. The FanGraphs depth chart and Musings Marcel projections yield the following offensive profile for San Diego’s projected starters:
| Player | Pos | OBA | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | .322 | .398 |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | .330 | .477 |
| Manny Machado | 3B | .324 | .449 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | .347 | .458 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 2B | .331 | .380 |
| Ramon Laureano | LF | .321 | .445 |
| Gavin Sheets | 1B | .305 | .389 |
| Miguel Andujar | DH | .328 | .420 |
| Freddy Fermin | C | .310 | .379 |
Running these projections through the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following range of outcomes. The full results are available in this spreadsheet.
| Best | Probable | Worst | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.684 | 4.616 | 4.468 | 0.216 |
The LAT’s best lineup for the Padres scores 4.684 runs per game:
| Order | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF |
| 2 | Manny Machado | 3B |
| 3 | Xander Bogaerts | SS |
| 4 | Jackson Merrill | CF |
| 5 | Miguel Andujar | DH |
| 6 | Ramon Laureano | LF |
| 7 | Gavin Sheets | 1B |
| 8 | Freddy Fermin | C |
| 9 | Jake Cronenworth | 2B |
The worst lineup produces just 4.468 runs per game:
| Order | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ramon Laureano | LF |
| 2 | Freddy Fermin | C |
| 3 | Manny Machado | 3B |
| 4 | Jake Cronenworth | 2B |
| 5 | Gavin Sheets | 1B |
| 6 | Xander Bogaerts | SS |
| 7 | Miguel Andujar | DH |
| 8 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF |
| 9 | Jackson Merrill | CF |
The most striking feature of the LAT results is where the tool puts Fernando Tatis Jr. — leadoff. That is driven entirely by his .347 OBA, the highest on the roster by a meaningful margin. The LAT cares most about getting on-base skill to the top of the order where it generates the most plate appearances, and Tatis leads this group in that category. Machado slots second, Bogaerts third, and Merrill fourth in a lineup that looks nothing like what Stammen is likely to write on his lineup card. The probable lineup at 4.616 RPG reflects a more conventional arrangement with Bogaerts leading off and Merrill batting second. That costs the Padres 0.068 RPG relative to the optimum — not enormous, but real.
The spread of 0.216 RPG between best and worst is moderate, reflecting the fact that this is a reasonably balanced roster without one truly dominant hitter who could be catastrophically misused. Jake Cronenworth batting ninth in the best lineup is worth noting. His .331 OBA is actually the second-highest on the team, but the LAT is weighing his slugging (.380) against the rest of the order and concluding he is better used as a table-setter from the bottom of the lineup feeding back into the top. It is a counterintuitive result but consistent with how the model treats contact-heavy, low-slug hitters. Gavin Sheets (.305/.389) and Freddy Fermin (.310/.379) are the clear weak spots in this lineup, and the model places them seventh and eighth accordingly.
Pinto writes: I find Cronenworth batting fifth in the default Padres lineup odd. He owns little power and his .282 career BABIP means his balls in play don’t generate a lot of hits. The fifth slot can be thought of as the end of the offensive sequence, so you either want someone with power or lots of hits to deliver base runners.
It looks to me like Stammen starts the offense over there, with Cronenworth the leadoff man for the back five. It’s an interesting idea, and we’ll see if it works.
Previous posts in this series:
I have a medical issue I will start dealing with today. It will limit my ability to work for at least two weeks. It’s a bad time of year to be out, but I’ll be back as soon as I am able.