February 19, 2026

Changes, Cincinnati Reds

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The Cincinnati Reds added the following players to their 2026 major league roster:

Suarez returns to his original MLB team after a three-year absence in which he produced a total of 11 fWAR. He produced at least 3.5 fWAR in seven of his last nine seasons, with only 2020-21 ranking as poor. He is a very steady hitter who should improve the offense. The Reds have a young offense, and it’s often good to find a steady veteran to fill a hole in a team.

Bleday and Myers look slated to platoon in leftfield, with the left-hander Bleday likely getting most of the starts. Bleday’s platoon advantage is all in his OBP, with his BA and slugging very similar against both sides. Myers is just flat out better against lefties. The platoon should minimize outs coming from the position.

The other moves aimed at shoring up the middle of the bullpen. Brook brings the best mix of three-true outcomes, and tends to induce a low BABIP. Johnson saw his K rate fall last season, but only walked one fewer batter per 9 IP. That resulted in one of his better seasons in terms of ERA. Ferguson keeps the ball in the park thanks to a fairly high percentage of ground balls.

The Reds made good moves this off-season. They are allowing their talent to mature while bringing veterans who can help move the team forward. We will see if the patience pays off.

February 19, 2026

Training for ABS

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The Yankees start the spring practicing for the automated ball-strike system:

The Yankees brought in an umpire to call balls and strikes during their live batting practice Wednesday, with hitters and pitchers freely using challenges to get used to the system.

They have also regularly had a strike zone on the scoreboard that shows, a few seconds after each pitch, where exactly it landed even if they did not use the ABS.

“These reps are valuable to continue to dial that in,” Boone said. “This is a new muscle, because you got to [challenge] within two seconds. And you want to be right. We want our guys to be aggressive with it, but we want to be right, we want to keep those things. So these are valuable reps.”

NYPost.com

The article did not discuss the best counts and situations to use the challenges. There might be an added benefit to this training as well. When players train to recognize balls and strikes better, that should pay off in greater selectivity at the plate.

Update: The Yankees knowing which batters are good at challenging and which are not is also a valuable outcome of this training. That way, some batters will be given more opportunities, and some will only be allowed to challenge in the none out, bases loaded situation.

February 18, 2026

Changes, Chicago White Sox

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The Chicago White Sox added the following players to their major league roster for 2026:

Murakami takes center stage as the White Sox try to turn a corner this season. He posted a .270/.394/.557 slash line in Nippon Professional Baseball, hitting 246 homers in eight seasons. He plays 2026 as a 26-year-old, so the White Sox should get his two best prime years. He does strike out a lot, but not that much more than a lot of MLB sluggers.

Hays, the other starting nine acquisition, plays good defense in the outfield but doesn’t add much with his bat. The bottom of the White Sox order remains weak.

There remains a lot of upside potential in Acuna. He’ll play as a 24-year-old this season, but really hasn’t hit well since he hit the AAA level. Acuna is still young enough to come around. Pereira did a great job of hitting for power in the minor leagues. We’ll see if he can turn that into a major league career.

Kay returns to the US after two successful season in Nippon Professional Baseball. He never got much of a chance in MLB to show what he can do, but in Japan he limited hits and home runs despite a relatively low K rate. Fedde pitched 141 innings in 2025 for three different teams, combining for a 5.49 ERA. He is a fifth starter who can take a beating and stay on the mound, someone who can help save the bullpen.

Dominguez stays with the White Sox trend of having players with very long names. He kept his K rate very high in 2025, but his walk rate may have suffered, rising to 5.17 per 9 IP from a 3.97 career average. He does allow very few hits. Newcomb’s strength over his career is keeping the ball in the park, but balls in play against him tend to find holes. Hicks is another low home run reliever, while Paez will make his MLB debut after being acquired in the Rule 5 Draft. He combined very high strikeout numbers with very low walk numbers.

The White Sox don’t look like contenders, but my guess is they won’t be a laughing stock.

February 18, 2026

Changes, Chicago Cubs

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The Chicago Cubs added these players to their 2026 MLB roster:

The Cubs rebuilt the bullpen behind their closer Daniel Palencia. Phil Maton and Hunter Harvey move into the setup roles, while Webb and Milner round out the middle inning relievers. Maton, over the last three seasons, did an excellent job of limiting power, with a .326 slugging percentage allowed. Harvey is similar, but with fewer walks.

Webb last season reduced his walk rate at the expense of his strikeout rate, but kept his ERA right around three. Note that his FIP did go up, however. Milner limits both HRs and BBs. This looks like a good pen overhaul.

Cabrera plays 2026 as a 28 year old, still in his prime. He moves to the Cubs after his best season in the majors as he brought his walks under control and posted a two fWAR.

Bregman takes over at third base. Matt Shaw posted weak numbers as the regular third baseman in 2025, and overall the team hit .219/.285/.336 there. Bregman should be a big improvement. Of course, the team needs to replace Kyle Tucker‘s offense in the outfield. Seiya Suzuki moves into the outfield, while youngster Moises Ballesteros takes over at DH. He hit well in his cup of coffee with the Cubs, but his minor league stats indicate he will be someone who gets on base with a little pop.

Austin may serve as the right-handed platoon with Ballesteros, while Chas McCormick tries to keep his career alive as a defensive replacement in the outfield.

February 17, 2026

Clarke Barred

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Tony Clark resigned from his role as executive director of the MLBPA:

Major League Baseball Players Association executive director Tony Clark resigned Tuesday after an internal investigation revealed an inappropriate relationship with his sister-in-law, who was hired by the union in 2023, sources told ESPN.

During the union’s internal probe — which came in the wake of a wide-ranging and still-open federal investigation into the MLBPA’s finances and other alleged improprieties, including nepotism — the relationship between Clark and the woman came to light, sources said, and prompted him to step down after more than a dozen years as the union’s leader.

ESPN.com

Clark did a poor job his early CBA negotiations. He threw drafted players, then foreign born free agents under the bus by agreeing to let MLB limit the money those groups could receive. The idea that money save signing amateurs would flow to the major leaguers. That didn’t happen, leading to more contentious negotiations this decade.

I suspect the union will do better without him.

February 17, 2026

Changes, Boston Red Sox

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The Boston Red Sox added the following players to their 2026 MLB roster:

The Red Sox revamped their starting rotation, the most notable change to the team. Rangers Suarez and Sonny Gray combined for 7.1 fWAR in 2025, and slide in nicely behind ace Garrett Crochet. Bryan Bello, early in his prime, is the only other hold over from the 2025 rotation. Gray plays 2026 as a 36 year old, so one might expect a fall off there. He’s been consistently strong the last three seasons, however.

Oviedo rounds out the rotation. He missed all of 2024 after under going Tommy John surgery. He also suffered set back in 2025. He tends to be wild, but he also tends to induce a low BABIP, so all the walks may not hurt him too much.

On the offensive side, Contreras served as a catcher who can hit, and sometimes it’s better to preserve the hitting by moving the player to a different position, this time, first base. Note that while he ranked as a great hitter for a catcher, his offense at first base may not be spectacular. Durbin gives Boston another young player who can get on base.

The Red Sox lineup overall looks solid, with pretty much every position (include a platoon at third base) looking to produce at least two WAR. Right now, based on 2025 values, the batters come in at 23 WAR and the starters come in at 16 WAR. That’s 39 WAR right there, and it takes about 40 WAR to make the playoffs. A full season from Roman Anthony would put them over the 40 mark. With other young hitters, there is a lot of upside here. Boston is in very good shape.

The rest of the move fill out the roster. Kiner-Falefa can play anywhere. Keller returns to the US after a stint in Japan. He seemed to solve his HR rate problem there, but not his walk rate problem. Watson would be a 28-year-old rookie. He showed great control in the lower minors, but at AAA, in 168 1/3 innings, walked 76 batters, but with good K and HR numbers.

February 16, 2026

Quibble

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I just saw this headline:

Dodgers sign former All-Star infielder one day before first full-squad workout

TheBigLead.com

The player is Santiago Espinal. If Santiago Espinal doesn’t immediately make you think “All Star”, that’s okay. He was named as a reserved in 2022 after a solid stretch of 483 plate appearances over about a year and a half. I really think if a news article is going to use “All Star” to describe a player, it should be able to be preceded by the word perennial.

February 16, 2026

Changes, Baltimore Orioles

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The Baltimore Orioles added these players to their 2026 MLB roster:

The Orioles made moves to improve themselves in 2026. Ward and Alonso should provide OBP and power in left field and first base, two of a few positions lacking both for the Orioles in 2025. It tends to be easier to find offense at those two positions, so it made sense to make moves there.

Seven pitchers started at least ten games for the Orioles in 2025, and only one, Trevor Rogers, pitched well. Kyle Bradish did make six good starts, and he returns as well. Bassitt and Baz fill in behind those two. Bassitt bring a low walk rate and a low home run rate to the table, while Baz’s high K rate helps him limit hits. Both are capable of pitching enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, which helps take pressure off the bullpen.

Helsley and Kittredge take over the top bullpen roles, closer and setup man respectively. Helsley, at seasonal age 30 in 2025, saw erosion of both his walk and HR rates. His projections for both look better in 2026, so we’ll see if he does regress to his mean. Kittredge saw a resurgence at seasonal age 35 in 2025, posting the best K rate of is career, and bringing his walk and HR rates below his career averages. In terms of fWAR, 2025 ranked as his second best season. All his velocities were up last year. Note that he underwent knee surgery early in the season, and his numbers didn’t shoot up until the Orioles traded him to the Cubs. Maybe the knee fix is what he needed, and it was enough for the Orioles to buy him back from Chicago.

Alexander gives them a solid utility man, and Taveras adds outfield depth.

All in all, the Orioles addressed some needs and remain a fairly young team, especially on offense. If the youngsters bounce back from some poor seasons in 2026, the Orioles could be big movers in the division.

February 16, 2026

Players Like Spending

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Bryce Harper and Manny Machado praise the Dodgers big spending ways:

“I love it,” Machado told reporters at the team’s facility in Peoria, Ariz. “They figured out a way to do it. … I think every team has the ability to do it. I hope all 30 teams could learn from that.”

…

“I love what the Dodgers do, obviously,” Harper said. “They pay the money, they spend the money. I mean, they’re a great team. They run their team like a business, and they run it the right way.”

LATimes.com

The Dodgers big signings rachet up the value of a free-agent WAR, making all players more valuable. One thing this off-season may have accomplished is moving free-agents toward shorter term, higher annual value contracts. It’s tough for a lower revenue team to sign a major free agent to a ten-year contract, during which five years are going to be decline. Most teams, however, can probably take on a very big contract for three years, especially if that contract brings about a winning team, more fans in the stands, and higher TV ratings.

Would a contract length cap be an acceptable alternative to a salary cap? Couple that with free agency after four seasons, and we may have a winner. Teams can’t lock up players long term, players get bigger contracts at a younger age. It might just give low revenue teams a chance to acquire better talent.

February 15, 2026

The Challenge of Challenging

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Tom Tango discusses the strategy of the pitch challenge, based on the data in this chart:

Note that it’s much more important to preserve or end the none out situation than it is to extend or end an inning when there are two outs.

What I’ve been thinking about is that may need to be added here is the probability of a reversal. The ball-strike/base-out situations should matter somewhat less when a call is egregious. It should matter a lot more when the call is close. So if there’s a 95% chance of the call being overturned challenge away. At 75%, be somewhat aware of the situation, give it a shot if there are no outs. At 65% only challenge on a third strike or fourth ball, and a low out situation. At 55% don’t challenge unless it’s late in the game in one of the very high leverage situations. Under 50%, don’t challenge.

Players will eventually learn these probabilities. The immediate feedback is a great training mechanism. So at the end of the season one thing to look for is a higher success rate in lower leverage situations.

February 15, 2026

Changes, Atlanta Braves

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The Atlanta Braves added the following players to their major league roster for the 2026 season:

Dubon looks like the most important acquisition. His 6.6 career fWAR comes entirely from his fielding. His batting runs come out negative every season. At shortstop, defense still comes first, but they will lose out on a lot of offense at the position compared to 2025. The FanGraphs depth chart has the injured Ha-Seong Kim ahead of Dubon, but I’m not sure that fair. Better defense at shortstop can help the back of the rotation that allows more balls in play,

Yastrzemski is well past his prime, but is coming off one of his better seasons. He might find the higher altitude of Atlanta helps his home run hitting. Heim is a solid backup for Drake May until Sean Murphy returns. Mateo and Wisely both look like late inning defensive replacements. Neither brings much offense to the table.

Suarez slides into the set up role in the bullpen. One of his strengths is limiting home runs, but part of that is park effect. His slugging percentage allowed goes up about 90 points on the road. Hamilton owns good K and HR rates for his career, but tends to walk a lot of batters. Still, he is solid for the back of the bullpen.

The Braves made moves to flll in holes and support what should be a very good core,

February 14, 2026

Changes, Athletics

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The Athletics added the following players to their major league roster for the 2026 season:

The Athletics focus on developing young talent right now, so they brought in a few veterans to shore up the lineup a bit. McNeil is a similar hitter to Jacob Wilson. Neither strike out much and neither hits for much power. According to the FanGraphs roster page linked above, McNeil will bat fifth and Wilson six, which is odd for low power batters. They do put the ball in play, and I wonder if the Athletics think that with men on base in front of those two, the balls in play will lead to more runs.

Ibanez is the infielder who can play anywhere, but brings little offense to the table.

Leiter and Barlow sit in their mid 30s, but still strike out batters at a high rate, but also generate more walks than one would like. Leiter is listed as a possible closer. Both are solid relievers.

Civale pitched for multiple teams in each of his last three seasons. He limits walks, but the last two seasons gave up long balls at a high rate.

None of these player represent the future of the team. They are the support to get the youngsters through the season.

February 14, 2026

Changes, Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Arizona Diamondbacks added the following players to their roster for the 2026 season:

I debated if Kelly really belongs on the list. As a pending free agent, the Diamondbacks sent him to the Rangers for three prospects. Along with resigning Zac Gallen Arizona keeps their rotation pretty much intact. Soroka joins his fifth team in four years and looks like a swing man injury backup.

The team added two veterans to the roster, Nolan Arenado and Carlos Santana. Arenado tries to rebound from the worst season of his career, in which he posted a 0.9 fWAR. That came about due to a complete collapse of his OBP. He can still field the ball, however, and Arizona third basemen fared poorly defensively in 2025. Maybe the higher altitude will help bring back some of Arenado’s power.

Santana used to be a catcher who hit like a first baseman, but now he’s a first baseman that hits like a catcher. I assume he is a stop-gap until someone from the minors is ready to take over the position.

None of the relievers impresses all that much. Clarke and Sewald are in their mid 30s, more likely to decline than improve. Strowd is in his late prime with just 26 1/3 MLB innings. His strikeout rate is good, but he walks a ton of batters. He did post a 1.71 ERA in those innings as he proved tough to hit, but 5.59 ERA at AAA indicates his MLB success was a small sample size outlier.

It looks like these moves were designed to keep the team competitive, while waiting for younger talent to develop. These are not the move a team into a championship level. I suspect the roster might look very different come August.

February 13, 2026

Face Passes

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Former pitcher Elroy Face died Thursday. The Pirates made the announcement after being contacted by his boy, Elroy Jr. Face was 97, a few days away from turning 98.

“It is with heavy hearts and deep sadness that we mourn the passing of Pirates Hall of Famer Elroy Face, a beloved member of the Pirates family,” team chairman Bob Nutting said in a statement.

“Elroy was a pioneer of the modern relief pitcher — the ‘Baron of the Bullpen’ — and he played a critical role in our 1960 World Series championship.”

ESPN.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends. I’m glad he lived a long life.

Face found success late in his career, becoming a full-time major league pitcher at seasonal age 27 and having his best season at age 31. In that 1959 season, he accumulated an18-1 record with a 2.70 ERA, all in relief. In his 93 1/3 innings, he struck out 69 batters and allowed just five home runs. He finished 7th in the MVP voting.

February 13, 2026

Seeing the Future

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MLB is considering partnering with prediction markets:

Owners were briefed this week at their quarterly meetings about the possibility of partnering with Polymarket and Kalshi, federally regulated markets that allow wagering in an endless array of areas, including sports. MLB’s partnerships with sports gambling companies give it access to the sort of data that tied Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase and starter Luis Ortiz to irregular betting patterns last year and wound up in their arrests.

Striking a deal with prediction markets, the commissioner said, would allow the league similar access to monitor a business so new that Manfred only learned of it in recent months. Currently, the NHL and UFC are the only major professional sports leagues partnering with Polymarket and Kalshi.

ESPN.com

While I dislike and discourage gambling, prediction markets try to harness wisdom of the crowds to see where things might be headed. For example, currently at Manifold, there is a 64% chance that the 2027 season is delayed due to issues over the new CBA. Prediction markets are more like future markets than straight bets. I asked Claude.AI to explain the differences:

A bet in the traditional sportsbook sense is a wager placed with a bookmaker. The bookmaker sets the odds, and you’re essentially betting against the house. The house takes a cut (the “vig” or “juice”), and your possible outcomes are binary — you win your payout or you lose your stake. Once you place the bet, you’re generally locked in. You can’t sell your position to someone else if circumstances change. DraftKings, FanDuel, and similar platforms operate this way.

A futures contract in the financial sense is an agreement to buy or sell something at a specific price on a specific future date. These originated in commodities — a farmer locking in a price for next year’s wheat crop, for example. The key distinction is that futures are standardized, traded on regulated exchanges like the CME, and involve margin requirements. They’re primarily tools for hedging risk or speculating on price movements, and you can exit your position anytime by selling the contract to another party before expiration. Sports futures bets (like “Yankees to win the World Series at +950”) borrow the terminology but are structurally just long-duration bets with a bookmaker.

A prediction market position is closer to a futures contract than a traditional bet. On platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, or Manifold, you’re buying shares that pay out $1 if an event happens and $0 if it doesn’t. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand from other participants, so a share trading at $0.42 implies a 42% probability. Crucially, you’re trading against other participants in a market, not against a house. And like futures, you can sell your position before the event resolves — so if you buy “MLB lockout delays 2027 season” shares at $0.42 and sentiment shifts so they’re trading at $0.70, you can sell for a profit without waiting for the outcome. The market-clearing price is what makes these useful as forecasting tools, since it aggregates the collective judgment of everyone with skin in the game.

The practical upshot: a bet is a fixed wager against a bookmaker, a futures contract is a tradeable obligation on a regulated exchange, and a prediction market position is a tradeable share in an event outcome. The prediction market sits somewhere between the other two — it has the event-outcome structure of a bet but the tradability and price-discovery function of a financial market.

Claude.AI

Note that prediction markets have the potential to help MLB manage challenges to the game. The CBA market above is an example. I suspect the owners and players would rather not delay the 2027 season. If the sentiment in that direction keeps getting worse, maybe one or both sides start moderating their positions. What do participants in the market think of the odds of more prop-bet cheating? What are the odds of a rise in PED use? What is the probability of a $70 million per year contract for a player by 2028?

I’m glad MLB is looking into this. There’s something to be gained from these markets.

February 13, 2026

Castellanos Kerfuffle

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Nick Castellanos brought a beer into the dugout to protest his removal from the game by manager Rob Thomson:

On Thursday, Castellanos posted a handwritten note on social media explaining the incident that preceded his benching. He said he brought beer into the dugout after being taken out of a game and complained to Thomson about team rules. He said teammates took the beer away before he drank any.

“After being taken out of a close ball game in front of my friends and family, I brought a Presidente into the dugout,” Castellanos wrote. “I then sat right next to Rob and let him know that too much slack in some areas and too tight of restrictions in others was not conducive to us winning.”

ESPN.com

He later apologized for the letting his emotions get the best of him, but the Phillies decided eat his salary and release him rather than have him continue to play for the team. If he gets picked up by another team, I’ll think of this bit from Moneyball.

February 13, 2026

Enforcing a Rule

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MLB owners voted to enforce a rule on the books, keeping coaches in the coaching box until a pitch is thrown. The idea is to prevent coaches from picking up tipped pitches.

This raises the question as to why the rule was not enforced previously. A rule not enforced is not a rule, and it can be ripe for abuse. It can be selectively enforced against coaches you don’t like. It would be nice if the owners voted to enforce all the the other rules where enforcement might be lax.

February 12, 2026

Passan on the Salary Cap

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Jeff Passan at ESPN writes a good discussion of the salary cap issue that MLB and the MLBPA will likely deal with in the next collective bargaining agreement (CBA) negotiation. One way out, he finds, is through better television revenue sharing, something I’ve wanted for years:

For years, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has dreamed of trying to follow the NFL model and nationalizing local television rights. With the expiration of the league’s national deals with Fox, TNT, NBC and ESPN after the 2028 season, Manfred, sources said, is also aiming to amass local rights for all 30 teams, as well, and take the entire suite of MLB’s TV properties to market.

And that’s where opportunity reveals itself. Currently, MLB’s national TV deals generate around $1.8 billion per year. With Amazon, Netflix, Apple, Paramount, ESPN, NBC, CBS, TNT and Fox all potential bidders — and with the ability to sell every minute of every baseball game within reach — baseball’s broadcast rights could stabilize vital revenue streams. Regardless of the MLBPA’s willingness to acquiesce to a capped system, the proceeds of a TV gold mine — and a proper revenue-sharing system designed with competitive balance in mind, something the union has resisted as a panacea — could buoy low-revenue laggards. When they’re strong, baseball is strong. When baseball is strong, popularity grows. When popularity grows, franchise values tend to follow.

“The only reason I’m confident we’re not going to miss games,” one team president said, “is because of what TV can do for us.”

ESPN.com

Reward teams based on their TV ratings as an opponent. Teams get half the TV revenue from their local broadcasts. The opponents get the other half, but divided based on ratings. If the Brewers are a strong draw when they play a team, and the Rockies are a poor draw, compensate them from the National Package accordingly. They will make more money if they are good, so their is an incentive to build a good team, no matter how much they actually spend.

February 12, 2026

If I Had a Hamate …

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With a rash of players out with hamate bone injuries, MLB.com explains why the bone can be a problem for batters:

Because of the way baseball players grip their bats, with the knob resting right up against that little bony protrusion, they are more susceptible to potential hamate bone breaks than the average person. The direct compression caused by thousands of swings can develop stress fractures in the bone in the lower hand (the left hand for right-handed batters and right hand for lefties), essentially weakening it over time.

MLB.com

There is poor blood flow to the bone, making healing difficult, which is why the broken hook of the bone is often removed.

I also wonder if year-round training contributes to this injury. Five or six weeks off every winter from bat swings might allow some healing.

February 12, 2026

Bassitt to the Birds

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It appears that pitcher Chris Bassitt will sign with the Orioles.

Multiple reports suggest that the free agent right-hander has agreed to a one-year contract with the Baltimore Orioles. It is believed that his salary will be $18.5 million US.

…

The Blue Jays signed Bassitt as a free agent on Dec. 16, 2022 to a three-year deal worth $63 million.

TorontoSun.com

The deal with the Blue Jays turned out to be a good one for Toronto. That dollar level means they expected between five and six WAR out of Bassitt, and he provided 7.3 fWAR. An $18 million deal indicates an expectation of 1.5 WAR, and projections at FanGraphs put him at 1.9 fWAR. He will play 2026 as a 37 year old, however, which is why the contract is probably lower than the expectation. He’s been good for 30 starts each of the last four seasons, and having a reliable back of the rotation starter should help the staff get through the season.

February 11, 2026

February 10, 2026

Verlander’s Second Pension

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Justin Verlander returned to the Tigers for one more season.

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, it’s for $13 million with $11 million deferred. He’s coming in to join a strong rotation that, at one point, could’ve been a major weakness if Skubal was traded.

SportingNews.com

The deferred payments start in 2030, and will a nice supplement to Verlander’s pension.

Verlander posted a 2.2 fWAR last season despite a 4-11 record. He actually pitched quite a bit, accumulating 152 innings and did a good job of preventing home runs. If he can post a two WAR season for Detroit, this will turn out to be a great deal.

February 9, 2026

Durbin Park

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The Brewers traded Caleb Durbin to the Red Sox after posting a good rookie season, part of a six player deal:

TRADE DETAILS
Red Sox receive: INF Caleb Durbin, INF Andruw Monasterio, INF Anthony Seigler, Competitive Balance Round B Draft pick
Brewers receive: LHP Kyle Harrison, INF David Hamilton, LHP prospect Shane Drohan

MLB.com

Durbin came to the majors for the first time in 2025 at seasonal age 25. That means the Brewers would have controlled his entire prime, likely getting his production at a bargain. Milwaukee picked up Jett Williams this off-season however, and Williams is four years younger and played in AAA at age 20. Williams owns a much higher upside, and Milwaukee could spare Durbin.

Harrison comes to the Brewers for his age 24 season, so the Brewers will get him in his prime. He has yet to impress in the big leagues, with walk and home run rates a bit on the high side. Hamilton is a light hitting middle infielder. I would not call Drohan a prospect. He will play 2026 as a 27 year old and he failed to impress in the minors. Seigler is the other interesting player in the deal, owning a great OBP in the minors.

It looks to me like the Brewers cleared out some space for little in return. That organization does have an eye for talent, however, so we’ll see if any of these players they received develops into something better.

Headline Reference.

February 9, 2026

Imaging Arms

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Claude.AI and I discussed pitching injuries this morning. We started out discussing if there was a way to analyze news articles about pitching injuries and see if any particular references to work load or mechanics correlated with the injuries. (Claude could not do this, but wrote Python scripts that might collect the data.)

At the same time, I had medical imaging on my mind from a few tests this week, including an ultrasound. In addition, yesterday included a talk with a tech savvy doctor who noted that the manufacturers of imaging products were starting to build AI into their scanners.

Many years ago a radiologist friend of mine would go down to spring training and use ultrasound to image the elbows of the pitchers. Here is a study that tried to follow college pitchers through a season. So imaging elbows this way is not new.

I proposed to Claude that teams image pitcher elbows frequently. A good ultrasound machine is relatively inexpensive. An ultra-sound technician would be more expensive, but would still earn a fraction of what a first-year MLB player takes home. I thought it might cost $200,000 a year to image an elbow after every start, Claude thought it would be more like $100,000. That’s a drop in the bucket for an MLB team.

Teams would build up a large library of pitching elbows over time. The pattern recognizers that identify images are good at picking up features you and I might not easily discern. With enough images, the AI might pick up on early small tears or inflammation that points to the start of trouble. Then teams could rest that pitcher and get the joint healthy again without surgery and minimal loss of playing time. A torn UCL might cost a team millions of dollars in lost service, so even saving one arm would pay for itself.

I hope some teams are thinking about this. The technology is here, and maybe they can finally cut down on Tommy John elbows.

February 8, 2026

Batter Approach

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Tom Tango posts about batter approach on counts, the frequency that batters swing at pitches at various distances from the center of the plate. He discovered a disconnect between the way batters and pitcher treat the 3-2 count. Pitchers approach the count as a three-ball count; in general they don’t want to throw the ball off the plate and issue a walk. Batters treat the count as a two strike count, and will swing to protect the plate. Tango theorizes that if a batter treated the 3-2 count more like a 3-1 count, the batter would make a nice improvement to his offensive value.

Now that this is out there, and that there is a pitch challenge system so bad calls in the shadow zone can be reversed, I wonder how many batters will swing less at the 3-2 pitch. Barry Bonds certainly used this strategy, as I somewhat remember his K’ing on a lot of edge pitches. Keep your eye on this in 2026.

February 8, 2026

Mr. Selective

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Tom Tango posts Juan Soto‘s swing rate by pitch location relative to a vertical slice of the strike zone:

I’m wondering if we could get this with up and down as well.

Update: Tango clarifies my impression of a vertical slice:

February 7, 2026

Gore Gone

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Pinch runner extraordinaire Terrance Gore died at too young age of 34 from complications after surgery:

Gore had 85 plate appearances during his big-league career and batted .216. But in some Septembers and October, he led the majors in fear induced because of his speed. He was often added to rosters late in the regular season — first by the Royals and subsequently by the Chicago Cubs, Dodgers and New York Mets — to serve as a pinch runner, usually in the late innings of close games. He played in the big leagues in parts of eight seasons and in just 112 regular-season games and 11 more in the postseason, he stole 48 bases in 58 attempts.

ESPN.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Gore played in eight MLB seasons but only broke 10 PA in one season, 2019, when he posted a .275/.362/.353 slash line in 58 PA for the Royals, easily his finest year. He was 13 for 18 in steals that year. He only came to the plate twice in eleven post-season games, but stole five bases in six attempts and scored three runs. He was an extreme specialist, but he used his skill well.

February 7, 2026

Expanding the Clase Case

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It would appear Emmanuel Clase threw more suspicious pitches than was originally thought:

Indicted Cleveland Guardians pitcher Emmanuel Clase is accused of throwing suspicious pitches to benefit bettors in at least 48 games over two years, significantly more than was initially revealed by federal prosecutors, according to a court document filed Thursday.

ESPN.com

Along with Luis Ortiz:

According to prosecutors, the two accepted thousands of dollars in bribes to help two unnamed gamblers in the players’ native Dominican Republic win at least $460,000 on bets placed on the speed and outcome of their pitches.

Given the money they make, they could have given the gamblers $460,000 and still have their careers. I’m very interested in why they thought this was a good idea.

February 7, 2026

Gold Swing

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There is a report that Paul Goldschmidt will return to the Yankees on a one-year deal. As part of the analysis of his 2025 season, the article notes:

Goldschmidt also seemed to trade off some power for contact at the plate. He hit the ball with much less authority than at any point in the Statcast Era (since 2015), but also slashed his whiff and strikeout rates compared to where they had been over the previous few seasons. It all led to a drop from 173 to 100 strikeouts, but also a drop from 22 home runs to 10, including just two after June 19. Now, further adjustments could be ahead for Goldschmidt in 2026.

MLB.com

His K rate (K/PA) dropped to 18.7% in 2025, below his career average of 22.4%. In 2024 he set a career single season high of 26.5%. Recently, this post talked about the aging curve for bat speed and how older hitters might adjust:

It’s important to note that batters find success at both high and low swing speeds. The difference between the peaks in speed and production could very well be experience; batters trade a bit of speed to square up the ball better.

The problems come later. A hard swinger, I suspect, tends to remain a hard swinger. As bat speed falls, pitches get blown by batters. This data suggests that as swing speed slows, batters might want to become more Luis Arraez and less Giancarlo Stanton.

BaseballMusings.com

Goldschmidt appears to be trying this. One might also think of it as going from Babe Ruth to Ty Cobb. Ruth struck out a lot in his era, although today his totals would seem low. Cobb, with his split-hand grip, was not only about making contract, but also directing the ball. He looked for holes in the defense, and shot for those areas. We’ll see if a winter of working on further adjustments pays off for Goldschmidt.

February 5, 2026

The Skubal Win

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Tarik Skubal won his arbitration case, according to reports from ESPN. He won by using a little invoked rule:

Leaning on a seldom-used provision in arbitration that allows players with five-plus years of service and so-called “special accomplishment” — back-to-back Cy Youngs qualify — to compare their salaries not just to those in the arbitration system but all major league players, Skubal built his case around starting-pitching salaries that have exceeded $40 million.

Both parties recognized the potential implications of the case, with Skubal enlisting MLBPA deputy executive director Bruce Meyer to provide the rebuttal. The panel found the argument compelling enough to shake up the typically stable and linear arbitration system, even if few players can come close to matching Skubal’s excellence.

ESPN.com

Good for Skubal to get that kind of money. He’s a five to six WAR player in his prime, and might be worth $40 million on the open market.

I personally think the Tigers should spend the money and go for a World Championship. It’s been a very long time since they hoisted the trophy. If the team is not in contention in July, then by all means trade Skubal before he becomes a free agent. But now is the time to go for it, not stop and restock.