The Blue Jays acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:
In the early days of his Baseball Abstracts, Bill James would talk about batting average as a percentage of a player’s offense. Over his career, that percentage for Santander came down from 43.7% in 2021 to 31.8% in 2024. In other words, he became a higher dimensional threat at the plate. The reduction came from an increase in power. His isolated power was a good .192 in 2021, a great .271 in 2024. What I find interesting, however, is that his OBP failed to go up with his power. Often team will use a pitch around strategy against that type of slugger. Some players, don’t take the walks, however, So Santander’s value gets pulled down since he wastes outs generating his power.
Gimenez produced a fantastic season at seasonal age 23 with a 6.1 fWAR on a .371 OBP and a .466 slugging percentage. In the two subsequent seasons he combined for 6.8 fWAR with a .306 OBP and a .368 slugging percentage. It tough to see what changed. In 2024 he did hit a lot more ground balls, but he was also thrown more sinkers. He’s making more contact, but his BABIP is way down. It really seems like 2022 was just an outlier for him. Maybe the Blue Jays picked up on something they can fix. If so, this could turn out to be a very good trade for Toronto.
Straw, like Gimenez, had a nice season he could not repeat. His 3.0 fWAR year came in 2021, 1.6 fWAR in the three years since. Straw, unlike Jimenez, was already in his prime, so it seems unlikely he’ll reach that height again, especially when he’ll be riding the bench.
Scherzer pitches at seasonal age 40 this year. He has not made 30 starts in a campaign since 2021. His strikeout rate dropped two per 9 innings in 2024 versus 2023. We’ll see if it comes back after a healthy winter. His walk rate remains low, but batters are hitting more balls out of the park, so Scherzer might want to start working power hitters more carefully. He is slotted in as the fourth starter, however, and he should fit that role fine.
Hoffman became a different pitcher when he moved to the Phillies two years ago. He raised his K rate and lowered his walk rate, dropping his ERAs into the twos. He dropped his percent of fastballs thrown and replaced those with sliders. That gave him closer stuff, and the Blue Jays were happy to pay for that.
Garcia returns to Toronto after a brief stint in Seattle. He saw his K rate rise in the last two seasons also, but he had high K rate seasons in the past as well. I don’t know if this counts as a real change for Toronto.
Sandlin is the youngster of the bullpen acquisitions, still in his prime as he pitches at seasonal age 28. He is a three-true outcome pitcher as his K, BB, and HR rates are high Home run really jumped the last two seasons. Not only did batters get more balls in the air against him, but the rate of those fly balls leaving the park tripled. He reduced his sinker usage in each of the last two seasons, and it seems to me like it was a bad move.
Toronto fans expressed unhappiness with losing out on Juan Soto. Most of these moves were not bad however. Santander gives him power, Gimenez gives them upside, Scherzer, if healthy, is a good starter on a good staff, and Hoffman should be an excellent closer. It’s not that bad of an off-season. Blue Jays fans hoped for more.
