Tag Archives: Rick Porcello

September 25, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

The BABIP against Porcello this season stands at .363. He keeps the ball in the park, however.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.299, 0.741 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Sandy Alcantara.
  • 0.340, 0.741 — Trea Turner batting against Rick Porcello.
  • 0.291, 0.735 — Tim Anderson batting against Yu Darvish.
  • 0.301, 0.728 — Donovan Solano batting against Chris Paddack.
  • 0.284, 0.725 — Jose Iglesias batting against Taijuan Walker.
  • 0.297, 0.721 — Alex Verdugo batting against Kyle Wright.
  • 0.292, 0.718 — Jeff McNeil batting against Max Scherzer.
  • 0.276, 0.717 — Salvador Perez batting against Spencer Turnbull.
  • 0.298, 0.709 — David Peralta batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.295, 0.709 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Jorge Lopez.

Alcantara’s BABIP, on the other hand, is .258. He does give up one home run per nine innings, and the game is at Yankee Stadium.

Turner is the consensus first pick, with LeMahieu second.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 20, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

These picks represent more of a poor performance by Porcello in 2020 than the abilities of the Braves hitters. The BABIP against Porcello this season stands at .377. He owns low walk, home run, and K rates, so the problem is lots of balls in play finding holes. It’s not helped by a higher line drive rate than usual, but his STATCAST data seems pretty much in line with his previous seasons.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.310, 0.751 — Tim Anderson batting against Michael Lorenzen.
  • 0.300, 0.744 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tanner Houck.
  • 0.314, 0.738 — Jose Iglesias batting against Ryan Yarbrough.
  • 0.343, 0.734 — Freddie Freeman batting against Rick Porcello.
  • 0.306, 0.727 — Jeff McNeil batting against Kyle Wright.
  • 0.317, 0.725 — Michael Brantley batting against Madison Bumgarner.
  • 0.291, 0.721 — Donovan Solano batting against Mike Minor.
  • 0.308, 0.720 — Corey Seager batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.302, 0.717 — Mookie Betts batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.283, 0.716 — Alex Verdugo batting against Deivi Garcia.

The NN smooths out the career blip by Porcello better. Just Freddie Freeman makes the cut now, with the two leading hitters in the AL at the top of the list. It’s quite the batting title race as LeMahieu leads Anderson .368 to .366. Note that Jose Iglesias left the game early yesterday after being hit by a pitch on the left wrist.

Freeman is the consensus first pick, with Anderson the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 9, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Porcello allowed a .297 BA this season, and Iglesias is hitting close to .400. Iglesias does not start every day, as the Orioles do a good job of picking his opponents. This seems like a good day to start him.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.341, 0.755 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tanner Roark.
  • 0.341, 0.750 — Jose Iglesias batting against Rick Porcello.
  • 0.332, 0.745 — Hanser Alberto batting against Rick Porcello.
  • 0.300, 0.737 — Tim Anderson batting against Jonathan Brubaker.
  • 0.312, 0.735 — Donovan Solano batting against Nick Margevicius.
  • 0.312, 0.724 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.314, 0.714 — Starling Marte batting against Tom Milone.
  • 0.283, 0.711 — Jeff McNeil batting against Jorge Lopez.
  • 0.285, 0.709 — Michael Brantley batting against Jesus Luzardo.
  • 0.308, 0.705 — Miguel Rojas batting against Tom Milone.

LeMahieu and Iglesias are the consensus top two picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 30, 2020

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

LeMahieu returned to the Yankees lineup on Saturday with a triple in four trips to keep his batting average above .400. The Log5 Method likes most of the Yankees against Porcello, as the league hits .336/.373/.487 against him this season.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.349, 0.757 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Rick Porcello.
  • 0.320, 0.745 — Hanser Alberto batting against Tanner Roark.
  • 0.307, 0.735 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Chris Paddack.
  • 0.306, 0.734 — Howie Kendrick batting against Zachary Godley.
  • 0.306, 0.734 — Tim Anderson batting against Kris Bubic.
  • 0.309, 0.727 — Jose Iglesias batting against Tanner Roark.
  • 0.311, 0.721 — Trea Turner batting against Zachary Godley.
  • 0.261, 0.708 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Seth Lugo.
  • 0.295, 0.698 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Rick Porcello.
  • 0.266, 0.697 — Ketel Marte batting against Johnny Cueto.

You could actually double down with LeMahieu today, as he rates well in both ends of the double header. Note that the twin bill is also a reason not to choose the Yankees infielder, as the games go just seven innings, so batters get fewer opportunities to get hits. Alberto is the unanimous second choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 1, 2019 June 18, 2019

Shutout Monday

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After all the high scoring games last week, Monday night saw four shutouts tossed by teams. Masahiro Tanaka pitched a gem, going the distance against the Rays as the Yankees won 3-0. He allowed two hits and one walk while striking out ten. Joey Lucchesi and Rick Porcello pitched short shutouts, each going seven innings as San Diego beat Milwaukee 2-0, and Boston beat Minnesota 2-0. Miles Mikolas tossed six shutout innings as the Cardinals downed Miami 5-0. Four other starters allowed no more than one run in at least six innings as well.

June 1, 2019

Games of the Day

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The Nationals and Reds square off in Cincinnati as Erick Fedde takes on former Nationals pitcher Tanner Roark. Fedde makes his third start of the season to go with five relief appearances. He allowed one run in his 10 innings as a stater, four runs in his 10 2/3 innings as a reliever. Roark’s strikeout rate is up since moving to the Reds, and his home run rate is way down. I am very surprised by the latter. He is throwing the slider more this season.

The Red Sox versus the Yankees is one of the three Fox games tonight. Rick Porcello takes on Domingo German. Procello is actually good at keeping batters off base until someone reaches base. He allows a .281 OBP with the bases empty, but a .372 OBP with men on. Seventeen of his 22 walks came with men on. German goes for his tenth win of the season. With a .204/.258/.365 slash line, his high home run total doesn’t do too much damage.

Jose Quintana leads the Cubs against the Cardinals and Jack Flaherty in another Fox game. Quintana pitched poorly on the road this season allowing six of his seven home runs. That leads to a 5.11 ERA. Flaherty pitches well at home, with a 2.06 ERA in St. Louis, 6.20 on the road. He’s walked six fewer batters at home in 10 1/3 more innings.

Enjoy!

May 17, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

One of the weaknesses of the Log5 method is that a pitcher who is getting knocked around can make everyone on the opposition look really good. Nova allowed 61 hits in 44 1/3 innings so far, with only 12 walks. That’s good for a .330 BA. Galvis owns a .279 BA, but with a .302 OBP. A high BA with a low OBP indicates a high hit average, so Galvis versus Nova should be a good match for a hit.

Here are the neural network picks:

This is a very different list, no Blue Jays make the cut. Melky Cabrera and Jean Segura are the consensus 1-2 picks. Brantley has a pretty good history against Porcello, 11 for 39 with two doubles, two home runs, and four walks. The biggest positive, however, is that Brantley struck out just twice. Putting the ball in play is a prerequisite for getting a hit.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

October 26, 2018

Porcello Pulled

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With two out and a man on first in the bottom of the fifth inning, Alex Cora takes Rick Porcello out of the game. The Dodgers lead the Red Sox 1-0. Cora does not double switch as he brings in Eduardo Rodriguez. Cora may be trying to get Dave Roberts to take out his lefty batters before the pitcher’s slot bats in the top of the sixth inning.

October 26, 2018

Playoffs Today

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Game three of the 2018 World Series takes place in Los Angeles as the Red Sox battle the Dodgers at 5 PM PDT. Boston leads the best of seven series two games to none. Rick Porcello takes the mound for the Red Sox against Dodgers rookie Walker Buehler.

Porcello started 33 regular season games in each of the last three seasons, his 99 starts ranking second in the majors to Justin Verlander. It’s a fascinating list, as games started doesn’t necessarily equate with quality. In the top ten, there are a number of ERAs in the high threes, including 3.99 for Porcello. What most of them have in common are low walk rates (1.87 per nine innings for Porcello), which means they don’t put themselves in trouble.

Buehler had ups and downs so far in his first post-season. He allowed nine runs in 12 innings in his first two starts. In the clinching game against Milwaukee, he allowed just one run, but lasted only 4 2/3 innings. He walked four and struck out 22 in his 16 2/3 innings, which is great, but also allowed three home runs. He needs to find a way to keep the ball in the strike zone while avoiding solid contact. That’s tough against the Red Sox, who are very good at swinging at pitches they can hit.

Enjoy!

October 17, 2018

Playoffs Today

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The Brewers and Dodgers play their pivotal game five starting at 5 PM EDT. Wade Miley faces Clayton Kershaw. Miley pitched great in the post-season so far. In 10 1/3 inning he has not allowed a run, holding opponents to five hits and one walk despite a low strikeout rate. Batters are 2 for 25 against Kershaw at Dodger Stadium this post season, but 6 for 14 against him on the road.

In Houston, the Red Sox send Rick Procello against the Astros and Charlie Morton. Porcello went 1-0 against the Astros in two starts, but they did hit three home runs off him in 12 innings. Morton was knocked around worse by Boston, giving up three home runs in 10 1/3 innings that led to eight runs.

Enjoy!

October 9, 2018

Playoffs Today

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The Red Sox try to eliminate the Yankees in game four of their ALCS Tuesday night at 8 PM. Rick Porcello faces CC Sabathia. Porcello’s ERA came in at 4.28 this season, but against the Yankees it was an excellent 2.31. He held the Yankees to one home run in 23 1/3 innings. Sabathia’s ERA was over a run lower at Yankee Stadium than on the road this season, mostly due to a lower walk rate. He owned a 4.50 ERA against Boston this season in three starts.

Enjoy!

September 9, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Dodgers and Rockies play the rubber game of their NL West series as Rich Hill faces Tyler Anderson. Hill made few starts at Coors in his career, and owns a 7.17 ERA in Denver. He did pitch well in his one start there this season. Anderson ranks fifth in the majors in home runs allowed, and that can’t be blamed on Coors as 15 of the 28 HR allowed came at home.

Atlanta sends rookie Touki Toussaint against the Diamondbacks and Robbie Ray. Toussaint’s three-true outcomes are okay so far, as he has not allowed a home run, walked four, and struck out 10 in 10 2/3 innings. Even better, batters recorded just six hits against him (although four of those were doubles). Ray gets knocked around at home, where 13 home runs in 47 2/3 innings led to a 5.66 ERA.

Finally, the Astros go for a sweep of the Red Sox at Fenway with Dallas Keuchel battling Rick Porcello. The Red Sox are 14-15 against the likely AL playoff teams, 83-31 against everyone else. The post-season may not be a cakewalk for them.

Enjoy!

August 20, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Indians visit the Red Sox with Corey Kluber facing Rick Porcello. Both pitchers come into the game with 15 wins, but Kluber gets there with a 2.68 ERA, Porcello with a 4.04 mark. The other great match-up in the game is Jose Ramirez against Mookie Betts, two of the best young hitters in the game today. They are 1-2 in the majors in WAR among position players.

The Mariners get a chance to gain in the AL West as they host the Astros. Gerrit Cole faces Felix Hernandez. Cole pitched well against the Mariners this season, with a 2.57 ERA, but owns a 1-2 record. Hernandez is winless in his last six appearances with a 7.36 ERA. He allowed seven home runs in 29 1/3 innings.

Finally, Austin Gomber and Alex Wood square off in an important game in the NL Wild Card race as the Cardinals visit the Dodgers. Gomber owns a 2.89 ERA in his rookie year despite a high walk rate. He makes up for that by holding opponents to a .218 BA. Wood took off since the All-Star break, allowing a 1.59 ERA in in 22 2/3 innings. He has not allowed a home run in those four starts.

Enjoy!

August 8, 2018

Games of the Day

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Jose Berrios takes on Corey Kluber as the Twins finish their series with the Indians. Berrios has now pitched 1/3 more inning than last season. He allowed 13 fewer hits, 12 fewer walks, while striking out nine more batters. That’s a nice improvement. The 32-year-old Kluber saw his K rate drop below 9.0 per nine IP this season, a couple of years after we’d expect him to start a decline. His 2.63 ERA is still great, but up about 0.4 runs from the previous year.

Boston plays Toronto with Rick Porcello facing rookie lefty Ryan Borucki. Porcello struck out 102 more batters than he walked this season. With 43 IP, Borucki is the only pitcher in MLB this season to pitch at least 40 innings without allowing a home run. The Red Sox should challenge that.

The reeling Mariners send James Paxton against the Astros and Justin Verlander. Paxton crushed the Astros so far this season, 3-0 with an 0.87 ERA. He struck out 21 and walked four in 20 2/3 innings. Verlander faces Seattle for the first time this season. He allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts.

August 3, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Cardinals send John Gant against the Pirates as Chris Archer makes his debut for Pittsburgh. Gant doesn’t exactly pitch to contact, with 29 walks and 50 strikeous in 59 1/3 innings. The contact against him doesn’t seem to be very good, as opponents are hitting just .200/.294/.327 against him. Archer gets in trouble early innings. With none on and none out this season, opponents are hitting .320/.346/.500 against him.

Luis Serverino takes on Rick Porcello in game two of the four-game weekend series between the Yankees and the Red Sox. Severino is slumping, with an 8.84 ERA in his last four starts. He has not made it past 15 outs in any of those games, allowing seven home runs in 19 1/3 innings. Porcello went 4-1 in July despite a 5.74 ERA. Both own good walks and strikeout numbers, but are giving up a ton of hits.

Finally, Justin Verlander leads the Astros against the Dodgers and Alex Wood in a battle of western division leaders. Verlander needs 10 strikeouts to reach 200 for the eighth season in his career. Wood owns a 7.47 ERA in three starts against AL teams.

Enjoy!

July 13, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Red Sox go for their 11th straight win as the Blue Jays send Ryan Borucki against Rick Porcello at Fenway. Borucki makes his fourth MLB start and so far posted decent three-true outcomes; no home runs, six walks, and 16 strikeouts in 20 innings. He’s been tough with men in scoring position so far, allowing a .176 BA. The Red Sox will test that situation. Porcello, with 11 victories, already equaled his win total of last season. He is stingy with the free passes, walking just 27 batters in 118 innings.

Two teams 1/2 games back in their division battle in Atlanta as the Diamondbacks send Zack Godley against a rejuvenated Anibal Sanchez. Godley owns a 5-2 record since the start of June despite a 5.50 ERA. Two poor starts account for most of the ERA, plus not going deep in games when he pitches well. The Diamondbacks scored 41 runs in his seven starts. Sanchez owns a 2.10 ERA at home this season, where he allowed 17 hits and seven walks in 25 2/3 innings.

Finally, the surging Oakland Athletics travel across the bay to take on the Giants, veterans Edwin Jackson and Madison Bumgarner on the mound. Jackson made three starts so far, given an injury riddled rotation a respite. He posted a 2.45 ERA, holding opponents to a .236 OBP so far. Bumgarner also got a late start to the season. He remain extremely effective at home, with a 2.05 ERA in 26 1/3 innings, allowing just one of his four home runs there.

Enjoy!

July 2, 2018

Porcello Sticks Scherzer

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With two out and men on second and third in the top of the second inning, Max Scherzer intentionally walks Jackie Bradley to pitch to Rick Porcello. With two strikes, Porcello chokes up on the bat and drives a double over Juan Soto‘s head to drive in all three runners. It’s the first double of Porcello’s career, and he only had two RBI coming into the game.

Maybe more batters should choke up against Scherzer with two strikes.

July 2, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Braves visit the Yankees, a possible World Series preview. Anibal Sanchez takes on German Marquez. The pitching match-up takes a back seat to the young talent on these teams. The Braves offer Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies, while the Yankees counter with Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. All four are showing excellent power, the four combining for 50 home runs so far.

Boston heads south on I-95 to Washington as Rick Porcello faces Max Scherzer. Procello pitched well on the road this season. His innings are about even, but he allowed just three of his ten home runs away, helping him to a 3.42 ERA on the road. Scherzer is 2-2 against the AL this season with a 1.75 ERA. He walked six and struck out 48 in 36 innings in those five starts.

Finally, the Giants try to tame Coors Field as Madison Bumgarner faces the Rockies and Kyle Freeland. Bumgarner is pitching well back from his injury, he’s just not winning much. He walked nine and struck out 25 in 32 1/3 innings, but that K rate is down. Freeland pitched great at Coors this season, owning a 2.95 ERA in six starts. He allowed six home runs there, but all were solo shots, and is allowing a .133 BA with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy!

June 27, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Yankees go for a sweep of the Phillies as Luis Cessa battles Zach Elfin. Cessa makes his first start of the 2018 season after allowing just three hits and three walks in six innings. Elfin allowed a home run every four innings last season. That’s down in one every 12 innings this year.

The Angels send Andrew Heaney against the Red Sox and Rick Porcello. It’s a nice example of how much the team means to a pitcher’s won-lost record. Heaney owns a 3.43 ERA and stands 4-5 on the season. Porcello owns a 3.44 ERA and stands 9-3 on the season. Both average about six innings a start, so staying in games longer doesn’t add to the difference here.

Cleveland at St. Louis features Shane Bieber against Jack Flaherty in a battle of rookies. Bieber walked three and struck out 22 in his first 18 1/3 innings. When batters do put the bat on the ball, however, they collected 22 hits. Flaherty high strikeout rate has helped keep hits down, as the opposition is batting just .201 against him.

Enjoy!

June 21, 2018

Games of the Day

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Thursday gets off to a bang as James Paxton takes on Luis Severino as the Mariners and Yankees finish their series in the Bronx. It’s a match-up power and control pitchers as Paxton struck out 115 and walked 26 in 91 2/3 innings, while Severino struck out 118 and walked 25 in 99 innings. One reason for Paxton’s higher ERA is he allowed 10 home runs to Severino’s five.

The Red Sox finish their series in Minnesota as Rick Porcello faces Kyle Gibson. Porcello give up more hits on the road (46) than at home (40), but allowed fewer home runs (five home, three away). Gibson is 2-4 with eight no decisions despite a 3.27 ERA. Part of the problem is that he doesn’t stay in games, averaging less than six innings per start.

Finally, Carlos Martinez leads the Cardinals against Junior Guerra and the Brewers. Martinez handled the Brewers easily so far this season, allowing one run in 14 1/3 innings, covering two starts. Guerra is almost as good against the Cardinals, with one run allowed in 11 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

June 15, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Cubs and Cardinals renew their rivalry as Jon Lester faces Michael Wacha. Lester comes into the game with a 2.22 ERA, which would be his best with the Cubs. He has allowed seven of his eight home runs on the road, however. Wacha’s 2.47 ERA would also represent his best year with the Cardinals. He is 8-0 since the start of April, his only loss coming in March.

The Angels and Athletics find themselves battling for third place in the AL West, as both come off getting swept by the division leaders. Tyler Skaggs takes on Chris Bassitt. A win by Skaggs would be his sixth, and would set a single season high for him. Bassitt replaces Trevor Cahill, who goes on the disabled list with an Achilles injury. Bassitt had a high ERA at AAA this season despite good three-true outcome numbers, but pitched very well in his 2018 MLB debut.

Finally, the Red Sox and Mariners continue their series in Seattle with Rick Porcello facing James Paxton. Procello pitched well on the road this season, 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA. Only two of his seven home runs allowed came away from Fenway. Paxton’s home runs allowed are up this season, but he allows just a .161 BA with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy!

June 10, 2018

Games of the Day

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Reynaldo Lopez faces Rick Porcello as the White Sox finish their series with the Red Sox. Lopez owns a better ERA than Porcello, 3.42 to 3.59. Lopez, however, is 1-4, versus 8-2 for Porcello. Procello has actually pitched better, with a 3.30 FIP compared to Lopez’s 4.51. Porcello is better supported, as the Red Sox scored five runs or more in his games nine times, while the White Sox have done the same for Lopez just three times.

The Mariners send James Paxton against the Rays and Nathan Eovaldi. Paxton over the last two season upped his strikeout rate, and blew away 101 batters in 82 1/3 innings this season. His home run and walk rates are up, however. Eovaldi walked just two batters in his first 11 innings this season, but allowed four runs.

The Braves and Dodgers face off with Sean Newcomb battling Ross Stripling. Newcomb allowed just three home runs in 68 2/3 innings this season, two of them on the road. Stripling owns a 1.52 ERA overall, 1.89 as a starter.

Finally, the Sunday Night game features the Yankees at the Mets with Luis Severino facing Julio Lugo. Severino goes for his 10th win of the season to go along with his 2.20 ERA. He is 1-0 against the NL this year, having pitched six innings against the Marlins. He allowed one hit and one walk while striking out eight. Lugo makes his second start to go with 21 relief appearances. He walked nine and struck out 39 in 39 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

June 3, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Cubs and Mets meet in New York where Jon Lester takes on Steven Matz. Lester allowed seven of his eight home runs on the road this season, and pitched just four more innings away. Matz allowed eight of his nine home runs at home, with one more inning pitched at Citi Field. This could be a slugfest in the making.

The winner of the Washington game at Atlanta finishes the four-game series in first place in the NL East. Jeremy Hellickson faces Anibal Sanchez. Both pitchers are enjoying a renaissance. Hellickson owns a 2.30 ERA, having greatly reduced his walk and home runs rates compared to the last two seasons. Sanchez still walks batters, but this season he’s keeping the ball in park.

The Indians try to hold off the Twins as Mike Clevinger battles Kyle Gibson. Cleveinger owns one of the best road ERAs in the majors, 1.61. He allowed just 15 hits in 28 innings away. Gibson is Mr. No Decision this season 1-3 despite a 3.57 ERA.

Finally, an early start to the ESPN game, 7:30 PM EST finds Rick Porcello and the Red Sox facing Charlie Morton and the Astros. Opponents hit Porcello with runners in scoring position this season, .313 BA, but Porcello doesn’t allow himself to get in the situation often. Just 64 of the 283 AB against him game with men in scoring position. Morton tries to remain undefeated as he goes for his eighth win of the season. He owns a 1.85 ERA at home where his has pitched 43 2/3 innings of his 67 2/3 innings for the season.

Enjoy!

June 3, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.351 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Alex Cobb.
0.346 — Miguel Andujar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.333 — Gleyber Torres batting against Alex Cobb.
0.326 — Austin Romine batting against Alex Cobb.
0.319 — Jose Altuve batting against Rick Porcello.
0.314 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Doug Fister.
0.311 — Didi Gregorius batting against Alex Cobb.
0.311 — Matt Kemp batting against Chad Bettis.
0.310 — Aaron Judge batting against Alex Cobb.
0.307 — Jon Jay batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.304 — Jose Abreu batting against Brent Suter.
0.301 — Giancarlo Stanton batting against Alex Cobb.
0.299 — Brett Gardner batting against Alex Cobb.
0.298 — Whit Merrifield batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.291 — Greg Bird batting against Alex Cobb.
0.291 — Albert Almora batting against Steven Matz.
0.289 — Neil Walker batting against Alex Cobb.
0.289 — Aaron Hicks batting against Alex Cobb.
0.288 — Tyler Austin batting against Alex Cobb.
0.288 — Nick Castellanos batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.287 — Michael Moustakas batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.287 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Rick Porcello.
0.283 — Carlos Sanchez batting against Brent Suter.
0.282 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tyson Ross.
0.280 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Gibson.

Gary Sanchez appears to be the only Yankees regular who doesn’t make the list against Alex Cobb. Cobb currently owns a .356/.392/.609 opponents slash line. Torreyes is at the top, but he seldom starts. The rookies Andujar and Torres look like good picks today.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.319, 0.760 — Jose Altuve batting against Rick Porcello.
0.351, 0.746 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Alex Cobb.
0.311, 0.739 — Matt Kemp batting against Chad Bettis.
0.314, 0.726 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Doug Fister.
0.291, 0.725 — Albert Almora batting against Steven Matz.
0.280, 0.723 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.307, 0.723 — Jon Jay batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.288, 0.723 — Nick Castellanos batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.346, 0.723 — Miguel Andujar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.282, 0.722 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tyson Ross.
0.304, 0.722 — Jose Abreu batting against Brent Suter.
0.255, 0.720 — Jean Segura batting against Blake Snell.
0.287, 0.714 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Rick Porcello.
0.298, 0.713 — Whit Merrifield batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.265, 0.708 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.333, 0.707 — Gleyber Torres batting against Alex Cobb.
0.277, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.261, 0.703 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Alex Wood.
0.269, 0.702 — Corey Dickerson batting against Michael Wacha.
0.266, 0.702 — Nolan Arenado batting against Alex Wood.
0.274, 0.701 — Wilson Ramos batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.266, 0.700 — Eddie Rosario batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.276, 0.700 — Matt M Duffy batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.311, 0.699 — Didi Gregorius batting against Alex Cobb.
0.256, 0.698 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Alex Wood.
0.262, 0.698 — Starling Marte batting against Michael Wacha.

The three season stretches (20016-2018 in this case) are more important to the NN than the current season. For Cobb, his three-year hit average is .268, while it stands at .332 for this season. The Yankees rookies, Andujar and Torres have their three-year hit averages greatly regressed toward the current mean of .223. It’s that moderation by the NN that prevents one pitcher from dominating the list.

Altuve is very consistent, with a .306 hit average for 2018 and for 2016-2018. That’s why he’s often #1 on the list. He’s 2 for 10 with a double and a home run against Porcello, with one strikeout. That includes the post-season. Ronald Torreyes is the consensus first choice, but if you pick him, make sure he’s starting.

Matt Kemp at Coors is always a good choice. He now has the third most visiting at bats at the park.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

May 23, 2018

Games of the Day

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Two of the best teams of the last two seasons square off in Cleveland as Charlie Morton leads the Astros against Mike Clevinger and the Indians. Morton stands undefeated this season, 6-0 in nine starts with an equally impressive 1.94 ERA. He allowed seven home runs, all with the bases empty, and has not given up an extra-base hit with men on base. Clevinger allowed a 2.87 ERA in nine starts. He gave up eight of his 17 extra-base hits with men on base.

The Red Sox and Rays finish their series with Rick Porcello facing Blake Snell. Porcello is showing the same great control as last season, walking just 11 batters in 63 2/3 innings. The big difference is the hits. Porcello is allowing a .232 BA this season versus .286 last year. Snell owns a 1.07 ERA at home this season, where he allowed just two of his eight home runs.

Enjoy!

May 14, 2018

Games of the Day

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Sean Manaea tries to keep the Red Sox hitless as Oakland visits Boston and Rick Porcello. Boston is 0 for 28 with two walks against Manaea this year. Overall, few reach base against him as he allows a .170 BA and a .215 OBP. Procello stands 5-0 in eight starts. He allowed just two home runs and eight walks so far for a .254 OBP and a .297 slugging percentage.

First place teams meet in Arizona as Junior Guerra leads Milwaukee against Patrick Corbin. Guerra didn’t allow a home run in April, and posted an 0.82 ERA. He allowed three so far in May, with an 8.10 ERA. Corbin stands 4-0 in eight starts with a 2.12 ERA. Eight of the 12 runs he allowed came on his six home runs.

Houston leads the Angels by one game as the teams meet in Anaheim. Lance McCullers battles Andrew Heaney. McCullers owns a 2.37 ERA at home, but a 4.67 ERA on the road. Despite that ERA, he’s 4-0 away. That’s due to the Astros scoring 5.85 runs per game away compared to 3.76 per game at home. Heaney is getting slammed with runners in scoring position. Opponents are 9 for 25 in that situation.

Enjoy!

May 4, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Phillies visit Washington two games out of first place in the NL East and two games ahead of the hot Nationals. Nick Pivetta takes on Gio Gonzalez. Pivetta looks like he should be doing better than a 3.27 ERA, with great K/BB/HR numbers. He allowed just seven walks and two home runs in 33 innings, but gives up a .304 BA with runners in scoring position. Gonzalez allowed 21 homers last season, but just one so far in 33 2/3 innings.

In a battle of undefeated pitchers, Rick Porcello leads the Red Sox against the Rangers and the ageless Bartolo Colon. Porcello was hammered by home runs in 2017, allowing 38. In 40 1/3 innings this season, opponents took him deep once. Colon has started stretching out his innings, going at least seven in two of his last three starts. As usual, his control is great with just three walks in 31 1/3 innings.

Finally, two youngsters meet in San Diego as Walker Buehler and the Dodgers battle Joey Lucchesi. Buehler is off to a good start in his first full season in the majors, with just two runs allowing in his first 10 innings. He has lived up to his name, however, with 12 walks in his 19 1/3 innings major league career. Lucchesi, a lefty, is beating up on right-handed hitters. So far they are hitting just .216/.278/.375 against him.

Enjoy!

Correction: The Padres home tonight is in Monterrey, Mexico.

April 29, 2018 April 18, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Nationals go for a sweep of the Mets as Tanner Roark takes on Steven Matz. Roarks K per 9 rose every season since 2015, and so far in 2018 he’s striking out nine batter per nine innings. Matz, with a very high K rate, allowed just 10 hits in 14 1/3 innings, but four of those hits were home runs.

The Red Sox and the Angels send Rick Porcello and Tyler Skaggs against each other, both with ERAs under 2.00. Porcello walked just one batter and allowed no home runs in his first 19 2/3 innings as he goes for his fourth win. Skaggs also has not allowed a home run, but he has walked six batters.

Finally, Gerrit Cole and the Astros face Mike Leake and the Mariners. Cole is proving to be another ace, as he brings a 1.29 ERA into the game. Somehow he upped his K game, striking out 36 batters in his first 21 innings with the Astros. I expect that high a rate from a top-notch closer. He is using his sinker sparingly this season, making up for it with off-speed pitches. Leake owns a good career strikeout to walk ratio, but this season he walked nine and struck out just eight.

Enjoy!