For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.314, 0.735 — Miguel Andujar batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.275, 0.673 — Noelvi Marte batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.272, 0.678 — Alec Burleson batting vs. Zack Littell.
- 0.271, 0.690 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Trey Yesavage.
- 0.270, 0.679 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Kai-Wei Teng.
- 0.267, 0.674 — Brendan Donovan batting vs. Zack Littell.
- 0.267, 0.674 — Ivan Herrera batting vs. Zack Littell.
- 0.267, 0.682 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
- 0.265, 0.664 — Austin Hays batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.265, 0.684 — Amed Rosario batting at Simeon Woods Richardson.
Liberatore does throw left-handed, so the platooning Andujar should start today. Note that Yesavage makes his major league debut, so he is being treated having a league average hit average allowed. In his 98 minor league innings he struck out 160 batters and walked 41, so batters do not put the ball in play against him. Yes, he’s savage.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.314, 0.735 — Miguel Andujar batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.271, 0.690 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Trey Yesavage.
- 0.264, 0.685 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Trey Yesavage.
- 0.265, 0.684 — Amed Rosario batting at Simeon Woods Richardson.
- 0.267, 0.682 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
- 0.264, 0.680 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Trey Yesavage.
- 0.270, 0.679 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Kai-Wei Teng.
- 0.254, 0.679 — Nico Hoerner batting at Braxton Ashcraft.
- 0.272, 0.678 — Alec Burleson batting vs. Zack Littell.
- 0.267, 0.674 — Ivan Herrera batting vs. Zack Littell.
- 0.267, 0.674 — Brendan Donovan batting vs. Zack Littell.
Both systems agree on Andujar, and he is the only batter in today’s limited schedule to have a high probability of a hit. Mangum would be the consensus double down pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!