Tag Archives: Jimmy Nelson

September 8, 2017

Games of the Day

The Rays head to Boston to both try to climb back into the AL Wild Card race and act as spoilers in the AL East race. Chris Archer takes on Drew Pomeranz. Archer mostly runs into trouble at Fenway Park, where he allowed 22 walks in 30 1/3 innings, while striking out 25. Pomeranz has a similar problem with the Rays this season, walking 10 Rays in 13 1/3 innings.

Milwaukee tries to close the gap with the Cubs as Jimmy Nelson faces John Lackey. We’ll see if the Cubs try to run on Nelson, as the Brewers allowed 17 stolen bases in 21 attempts with Nelson on the mound. Lackey’s ERA might be much worse if he wasn’t holding batters to a .212 BA with runners in scoring position. Also note this is a very rare Friday game at Wrigley that is played at night.

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August 27, 2017

Games of the Day

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The small sample size slugfest of the day may take place in Washington as Tom Milone and the Mets face Erick Fedde in the first game of a double header. Milone owns an 8.12 ERA in 37 2/3 innings, having allowed 13 home runs. Impressively, that’s not the highest home runs per 9 IP in the majors for someone with at last 35 innings tossed! Fedde (one of the best names ever for a Washington player) allowed three home runs in 9 1/3 innings in his rookie year. He also walked six to help him to a 10.61 ERA.

One of the few good pitching match-ups today pits Chris Archer and the Rays against Lance Lynn in St. Louis. Archer is 35 K away from his single season high of 252. Given that he exceeded 35 K every month this season, it looks like he’ll blown by the 252. Since the start of the 2012 season, when Lynn became a full time player, his HR per 9 IP of 0.77 ranks fifth in the majors.

Finally, Jimmy Nelson takes on Yu Darvish as the Brewers play the Dodgers. Nelson returned to his past form since the All-Star break, allowing a 4.91 ERA since then. It’s not clear why, as his three-true outcomes have not changed much compared to his pre-break numbers. Darvish comes off a short disabled list stint. In 18 innings for the Dodgers, he struck out 22 and walked just four, but four of his five runs allowed came on solo home runs.

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August 6, 2017

Games of the Day

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The Yankees go for a split of their series with Cleveland as Luis Severino takes on Carlos Carrasco. Severino pitched better on the road this season, with only four of his 12 home runs coming away. He struck out 80 batters in 69 2/3 innings outside New York. Carrasco owns a 6.40 ERA in four starts since the All-Star break. He’s allowed five home runs in 20 1/3 innings.

Jimmy Nelson battles Chris Archer as the Brewers play the Rays. Nelson is 2-1 with a 2.66 ERA against the American League this season in four starts, striking out 25 and walking seven. Despite allowing 17 home runs in 148 innings, opponents are only slugging .390 against Archer.

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August 1, 2017

Games of the Day

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The Indians continue their series with the Red Sox as Carlos Carrasco takes on Chris Sale. Carrasco put together an impressive four-year stretch as a starter and reliever. He owns a 3.29 ERA, striking out 9.8 batters per nine IP with just 2.1 walks per 9 IP. Sale has not allowed a run since the All-Star break and is working on a 21 2/3 scoreless inning streak. (He did not allow a run in his last inning against Tampa Bay on 7/6.)

Max Scherzer tries to throw the second low-hitter in a row for Washington as he faces Miami and rookie Chris O’Grady. Scherzer still trails Clayton Kershaw in all three Cy Young Trackers, but it may just be a matter of time before Max passes the Dodgers lefty. O’Grady makes the fifth start of his career, in his peak age 27 season. He survived a high walk total so far as most of the power against him came with the bases empty.

Carlos Martinez leads the Cardinals against the Brewers and Jimmy Nelson. Martinez comes off a poor July in which he allowed a 5.90 ERA, thanks to allowing seven home runs in 29 innings. Nelson found his control this year, and since May 1 owns a K/BB of 5.7.

Finally, The Rays and Astros send Chris Archer and Mike Fiers to the mound. Archer has a history of success in Houston, 2-1 with a 2.16 ERA against the Astros at their park. Fiers struck out 27 batters in 18 innings since the break.

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July 26, 2017

Games of the Day

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Jimmy Nelson tries to help the Brewers make it two in a row against the Nationals as Washington sends Gio Gonzalez to the mound. Since the start of May, Nelson owns a 2.84 ERA and a 7-3 record, thanks to a high K rate and a low walk rate. Gonzalez posts a good ERA despite a ton of walks. Opponents hit just .132 against him with runners in scoring position.

Mike Fiers takes on Phillies Aaron Nola as Nola tries to stop the onslaught of Houston star Jose Altuve. Righties are hitting just .210/.252/.318 versus Nola, so maybe he has a chance against the player leading the AL in batting average. Fiers allowed 21 home runs in 107 2/3 innings, his third straight season allowing over 20 home runs. Only four came with men on base, however.

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July 20, 2017

Games of the Day

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As it appears more and more likely the Dodgers will never lose another game, the Diamondbacks look to cement their wild card slot. They play the Reds with Taijuan Walker facing Luis Castillo. Walker does a very good job of keeping the ball in the park, especially on the road. He allowed just three home runs in 43 1/3 innings away from Phoenix. The rookie Castillo strikes out batters at a very good clip, but walks and home runs need work. Luckily for him, most of the home runs he allowed were solo shots, and opponents are just 2 for 22 against him with runners in scoring position.

Pittsburgh goes for a sweep of the first place Brewers and their fifth straight win. The Pirates scored no more than four runs in each of the four wins, won all games by one or two runs, and walked off twice. Jimmy Nelson takes on Jameson Taillon. Nelson pitched great since the start of May, 7-2 in 14 starts with a 2.59 ERA. He’s striking out over 10 batters per nine innings pitched, while walking just two per nine. Taillon allowed four of his five home runs with men on base this season.

Despite Detroit staring to sell, the Tigers are still in the AL Central race as they send Michael Fulmer against the Royals and Danny Duffy. In his second season, Fulmer is now 21-13 in his career, a .618 winning percentage, with a 3.06 ERA. He does not blow batters away, but he does a good job limiting walks and home runs. Duffy owns a 2.41 ERA at home this season, but is just 2-3 in six starts.

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July 15, 2017

Games of the Day

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The only afternoon game of the day is featured on Fox Sports One, with the Yankees trying to get back the game lost last night against the Red Sox. Luis Severino takes on Chris Sale. Severino shares a number of good qualities with Sale (the listing was designed to get them as close together as possible). Both strike out batters at a high rate with few walks. Both have decent, but not great home run rates. Sale is much better at all of those, but he is also much more experienced. The Yankees hope Severino takes a similar path.

Lance Lynn tries to get the Cardinals their first win of the second half as he takes on Pirates sophomore star Jameson Taillon. Lynn split his two starts against the Pirates, pitching great in one game and poorly in the other. Both were at home, but he owns a 4.86 ERA career in Pittsburgh. Taillon owns a 1.98 ERA in five starts since returning from the disabled list.

Philadelphia tries to stop the Milwaukee juggernaut as Aaron Nola faces Jimmy Nelson. Nola pitches well with runners on base (.219 BA allowed), but with runners in scoring position that goes up to .254. So if there is just a man on first, he’s great. Unfortunately runners are 10 for 10 against Nola stealing, so he tends to allow the worse situation to happen. Nelson is posting the best season of his career, as he greatly increased his strikeout rate while lowering his walk rate. He changed his delivery last season, and increase his strength this off-season.

This is what happened with Brewers starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson. He switched last season to a modified, shortened delivery that makes it appear as if he is pitching from the stretch. But he continued to struggle in the second half (5.79 earned run average over his last 21 starts), a frustrating situation.

Fast forward to this spring, when Nelson made other improvements. He strengthened his lower half through Pilates, dropped some pounds, continued working on fine-tuning his mechanics.

So far, so good.

Alex Wood goes for his 11th win without a loss as he battles the Marlins and Jose Urena. Wood allowed just two home runs this season in 80 2/3 innings, both came on the road. Urena performs his worst this season with runners in scoring position, allowing a .292/.373/.523 slash line.

Madison Bumgarner returns to the mound for the Giants to face the Padres and Jhoulys Chacin. Bumgarner pitched to some bad luck before his off-field injury, 3-0 despite a 3.00 ERA. He struck out 28 and walked just four in 27 innings, and pitched a complete game. Chacin takes advantage of Petco Park, 5-2 with a 1.68 ERA at home, 3-5 with a 7.95 ERA on the road.

Finally, Corey Kluber and the Indians battle Paul Blackburn and the Athletics. Kluber is on an impressive role since the start of June, 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA in eight starts. That includes six games in which he struck out ten batters. Blackburn is off to an interesting start to his career. In two starts, he owns a 0.66 ERA, allowing just two walks and striking out just four batters. He allows the ball to be put in play, meaning the Oakland defense needs to be at it’s best when he is pitching. So far, that has been the case as the BABIP against him is just .227. While he doesn’t miss bats, he does appear to miss good contact, as only 11% of balls in play against him were scored as line drives. We’ll how long this lasts.

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June 13, 2017

Games of the Day

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The Brewers try to extend their NL Central lead over the Cardinals as Jimmy Nelson faces Lance Lynn. They pitch in the first game of a double header. For the first time in his career, Nelson’s strikeouts are in parity with hits innings pitched. That helped bring his ERA down about 0.8 runs from his career average. He did that while also greatly improving his walk rate. Lynn’s ERA is very good, despite being well on his way to a single season high in home runs allowed. He gave up 16 in 2012, and already allowed 12 this year. That total represents over a quarter of his hits, however, so other than home runs, the opposition does not reach base against Lynn often.

Zack Greinke takes on Buck Farmer as the Diamondbacks visit the Tigers. Greike revived his strikeout stuff, with 100 K in 84 1/3 innings this season, after striking out 134 in 158 2/3 innings last year. He’s also walking a batter every five innings. Farmer appears to have found himself in 2017, after short MLB stints in his previous three seasons. He struck out 16 batters in his first 13 innings with just six hits and three walks allowed. Farmer has yet to allow a run this season.

The Cubs battle the Mets with Jon Lester facing Zack Wheeler. Lester remains terrible on the road with a convenience store ERA of 7.11. He allowed 37 hits at home and 39 on the road, but pitched half the number of innings away. Wheeler remained hot in this last start, despite a high walk rate over the seven starts. With four wins in a row, and four losses in a row by the Nationals, the Mets are now 8 1/2 games back of first place in the NL East.

Finally, the Yankees take their home run show on the road as CC Sabathia squares off against J.C. Ramirez. Sabathia carries a five-game hot streak into the game, during which he struck out 31 in 32 1/3 innings with just six walks. That’s good for a 1.11 ERA. Ramirez does not walk many batters, but being in the strike zone led to plenty of hits, 75 in 70 2/3 innings. Twelve of those left the park.

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June 3, 2017

Home Run Barrage

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Friday produced the sixth highest scoring day of the season (minimum six games played), 10.93 runs. It tied for the most home runs hit on a day this season, 52. The other two day with 52 home runs, however, saw extra games played. There were 16 games on May 21, and 17 games on May 14. April 29, with 46 home runs in 13 games produced the highest home runs per game, 3.54 versus 3.47 Friday night. The only game that did not produce a home run took place in Philadelphia, where the Giants blanked the Phillies 10-0.

Not surprisingly, batters swinging for the fences struck out a lot, also. The night produced 263 K, the fifth highest total of the season. The poster child for this day was the contest between the Dodgers and Brewers, won by the Dodgers 2-1 in 12 innings. The starters, Clayton Kershaw and Jimmy Nelson combined for 23 K in 15 innings. The Dodgers pen then struck out 12 batters in five innings, while the Brewers K’d five in four innings for a grand total of 42 K. All three runs scored on homers.

April 18, 2017

Games of the Day

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Jimmy Nelson and the Brewers continue their series against the Cubs with Brett Anderson on the mound for Chicago. So far this season, Nelson showed much better control than in the past. His two walks in 13 innings helped him to a 1.38 ERA. Anderson, on the other hand, walked five and struck out just six in 10 2/3 innings. Opponents are just 1 for 9 with runners in scoring position, a big reason for his 0.84 ERA.

The Pirates battle the Cardinals with Chad Kuhl facing Mike Leake. Kuhl upped his strikeout rate early this season, striking out 11 batters in 11 1/3 innings. He struck out 53 in 70 2/3 innings in his rookie year of 2016. Leake walked one and struck out 13 in 15 innings so far this season. He allowed just one run, but managed to lose that game for a 1-1 record.

Finally, Yu Darvish takes on Andrew Triggs. Darvish has been a bit wild with 10 walks in 19 1/3 innings. Those are somewhat tempered by his 19 strikeouts and due to those opponents have just 13 hits. Triggs walked four and struck out four in, yet allowed just one run, unearned. He struck out nearly a batter per inning in 2016, so expect the K numbers to improve.

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September 15, 2016

Games of the Day

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The Yankees go into Boston for a four-game series against the Red Sox, New York trailing by four games. Masahiro Tanaka faces Eduardo Rodriguez in game one. Tanaka can set a single season high for wins in his MLB career, currently at 13, the same total from his rookie year. This will be his fifth start at Boston, where he pitched two good games and two poor games. He walked three and struck out 19 in 22 innings, so he might deserve something better than a 5.32 ERA. Rodriguez has yet to win at home, 0-4 in seven starts. He’s allowed 10 home runs at Fenway this season in 39 innings, opponents slugging .500 against him.

The Cubs clinch the NL Central with a win against the Brewers, or a Cardinals loss. Chicago gets the first shot at home, as Milwaukee sends Jimmy Nelson against Mike Montgomery. Nelson fell back in his second full season as a starter, allowing walks and home runs at a higher rate, strikeouts at a lower rate. That led to a 0.3 run increase in his ERA. Montgomery appears to have lost some control since leaving the Mariners. He walked 18 batters in 61 2/3 innings with Seattle, 16 batters in 27 innings for the Cubs.

Finally, the Cardinals travel to San Francisco for a four-game series against the wild card leading Giants. Adam Wainwright faces Johnny Cueto. Through 2015, left-handed batters hit .253/.313/.371 against Wainwright. This season, it’s up to .300/.354/.440. Cueto pitched well both home and away, but allowed just three of his 15 home runs in San Francisco this season.

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June 15, 2016

Games of the Day

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It appears to be Cy Young contender Wednesday. Clayton Kershaw faces Patrick Corbin in an afternoon game between the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks. Kershaw opened up a huge lead in Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker points, ten ahead of Jake Arrieta. To accumulate a high score, the pitcher needs to allow few runs, pitch a lot of innings, strikeout a ton of batters, and win. Kershaw is doing all that and more, keeping his walks and home runs very low. Corbin, with 46 runs allowed in 78 2/3 innings is pretty much doing the opposite.

The Brewers send Jimmy Nelson against one of the Giants aces, Johnny Cueto. Nelson limits the damage against him to bases empty situations. Twenty one of the twenty 26 extra-base hits against him came with no one on. Cueto shares Kershaw’s 9-1 record, and only allowed three home runs. The big difference is that Cueto walked 19 to Kershaw’s six.

A few minutes later the Cubs and Nationals play the rubber game of their series as Jason Hammel takes on the undefeated Stephen Strasburg. Hamel’s 2.36 ERA owes a bit to his six home runs allowed in 68 2/3 innings. He’s holding opponents to a .343 slugging percentage. Strasburg is 5-0 both at home and the road, but allowed seven of his nine homers at home.

The Orioles and Red Sox continue to battle for the AL East title with Kevin Gausman facing AL Cy Young points leader Steven Wright. Gausman is 0-3 despite a 3.45 ERA and the Orioles third in the AL in runs per game. They scored three runs or less seven times in Gausman’s ten starts. Wright’s strength this season is keeping the ball in the park. He allowed just three home runs in 82 innings, impressive for a knuckle ball pitcher. What that pitch doesn’t break, batters can cream it.

Finally, Mike Pelfrey takes on Chris Sale as the Tigers play the White Sox. Pelfrey owns both a low walk rate and a low strikeout rate. That means a lot of balls are put in play against him, and with a .333 BABIP, a lot of those fall for hits. Sale is just a hair behind Wright in the Cy Young track points race. He’s holding opponents to a .217 BA and a .264 OBP. It’s tough to score when no one is on base.

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September 17, 2015

Games of the Day

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The three late evening games are the most interesting on Thursday. The Astros and Rangers finish their series with Lance McCullers facing Colby Lewis. The rookie McCullers already posts great three-true outcomes, with 102 K, 36 BB, and five home runs in 101 2/3innings. Lewis already set his single season high for wins with 15, and three of those came against Houston despite a 4.40 ERA. He’s only walked two Astros in 28 2/3 innings, but allowed six home runs.

The other important AL wild card game pits the Angels against the Twins as Hector Santiago faces Tommy Milone. Santiago owns a 4.09 ERA on the road versus 2.53 at home. It’s all about the hits, as opponents own a .199 BA in Anaheim, .252 when Santiago is on the road. Milone walked just eight batters in his last 34 1/3 innings.

Finally, the Cardinals finish their series with Milwaukee as John Lackey battles Jimmy Nelson. Lackey owns a 2.70 ERA against the Brewers in three starts. He walked just four bu allowed three home runs in 20 innings against Milwaukee. Nelson dropped his ERA by a run compared to 2014, while pitching over a 100 more MLB innings. He’s tough at home with a 3.16 ERA.

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April 22, 2015

Games of the Day

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John Lackey leads the Cardinals against Doug Fister and the Nationals.

Johnny Cueto and the Reds face Jimmy Nelson and the Brewers. Nelson owns a great K/BB so far.

Yovani Gallardo and Archie Bradley matchup as Texas visits Arizona.

Finally, the game of the year so far as Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers battle Madison Bumgarner and the Giants. Both own high ERAs right now. Kershaw is allowing home runs, while Bumgarner’s strikeouts are down.

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August 15, 2014

Games of the Day

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Detroit lost their division lead to the Royals, and tonight they may lose their wild card lead to the Mariners as James Paxton takes on Rick Porcello. In eight major league starts over two years, Paxton has never lost a game, going 5-0 with a 1.93 ERA. He’s walked 12 and struck out 43 in 46 2/3 innings. Porcello’s 3.11 ERA would be the best single season mark of his career. He’s holding both left and right handed batters to an OBP below .300.

On the west coast, potential playoff opponents Milwaukee and Los Angeles meet as Jimmy Nelson takes on Zack Greinke. Nelson’s been hurt a bit by run support this season, the Brewers scoring two runs or less in three of his six starts. Greinke is off t a rough start in August, 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA and three homers allowed in 13 innings.

Enjoy!