Austin Bibens-Dirkx | baseballmusings.com

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.338 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman
0.329 — Didi Gregorius batting against Kevin Gausman
0.312 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Daniel Norris
0.310 — Aaron Judge batting against Kevin Gausman
0.308 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Ivan Nova
0.306 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Chavez
0.300 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ivan Nova
0.300 — Daniel Murphy batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx
0.298 — Howie Kendrick batting against Adam Wainwright
0.297 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Adam Wainwright

The Yankees have dominated the Orioles in their current series, and it looks like they are ready to dig Kevin Gausman on Sunday. Gausman allowed 90 hits in 66 innings this season for a .323 opposition BA. Castro and Gregorius are successful hackers. This year, they are hitting for a high average with few walks. That’s the type of hitter you expect to extend a streak.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.300, 0.753 — Daniel Murphy batting against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
0.312, 0.745 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Daniel Norris.
0.306, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Chavez.
0.338, 0.744 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.329, 0.734 — Didi Gregorius batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.294, 0.729 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jake Arrieta.
0.308, 0.725 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Ivan Nova.
0.300, 0.724 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ivan Nova.
0.292, 0.717 — Dee Gordon batting against Ivan Nova.
0.285, 0.714 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jesse Hahn.

Murphy rises to the top due to his better 2017 hit average (.314) and his better three-year weighted hit average (.303). Bibens-Dirkx prevented hits well in his rookie year, but with regression he is still close to a league average pitcher. Castro, Gregorious, and Gausman have high hit averages short term, but not long term, so those two Yankees batters drop a bit. Judge completely falls off the list. Bogaerts and Castro tie for the consensus pick, however.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Christopher Herrmann	33
Michael Freeman	29
Raul Mondesi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Michael Conforto	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Jeff Mathis	20
Kurt Suzuki	20
Conor Gillaspie	19
Russell Martin	18
Keon Broxton	18
Greg Bird	15
Billy Hamilton	15
Darwin Barney	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Max Kepler-Rozycki	14
Pablo Sandoval	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Jorge Bonifacio	14
Carlos Gonzalez	14
Brian Goodwin	14
Chris Coghlan	13
Cameron Rupp	13
Scott Schebler	12
Leonys Martin	12
Trevor Story	12
Chase D'Arnaud	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Ian Happ	12
Nick Markakis	11
Kevin Plawecki	11
Starling Marte	11
Kyle Schwarber	11
Michael Saunders	11
Andrew Knapp	11
Craig Gentry	11
Miguel Sano	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Miguel Montero	11
Danny Ortiz	11
JaCoby Jones	10
Scott Van Slyke	10
Deven Marrero	10
Eric Sogard	10
Luis Sardinas	10
James McCann	10
Lucas Duda	10
Yandy Diaz	10
Trea Turner	10
Tyler Collins	10
Boog Powell	10
Matt Olson	10
Christian Vazquez	10
Ryan Braun	10
Jurickson Profar	10
Peter Kozma	10
Stuart Turner	10

Good luck!

The mismatch of the day goes to the first game of the day, Zach Godley against Chad Kuhl as the Diamondbacks take on the Pirates. Godley comes into the game with a 1.99 ERA thanks to a low BA allowed and few extra base hits. Kuhl owns a 6.29 ERA due to a high BA allowed and many extra base hits. Kuhl’s three-true outcome stats indicate he shouldn’t be that bad, and Godley’s indicate he should be that good. Kuhl’s xFIP is 4.98, Godley’s is 3.25.

The Yankees and Orioles play the rubber game of their series, with Masahiro Tanaka taking on Kevin Gausman, two good pitchers having poor years. On May 15th, the New York Post talked about the Yankees rotation caving in. Since that time, the rotation owns a 2.85 ERA with an 8-4 record in 14 games. In the last nine starts, the starters allowed three runs or less. In fact, Tanaka’s penultimate game was the last really poor outing by a Yankees starter. Gausman had a better May, hurt by one bad start. He does allow quite a few hits, however.

In the game between the Rays and the Rangers, Chris Archer faces Austin Bibens-Dirkx. I don’t have much to say, but I had to work Austin Bibens-Dirkx into a post. You don’t see a rkx combination very often. At seasonal age 32, he is hardly a prospect.

Finally, my current favorite for Cy Young is Antonio Senzatela, who leads the Rockies against the Mariners and James Paxton. Senzatela limits hits despite a low strikeout rate, and limits them both home and away. If he ends the season with a 3.19 ERA with half his games in Coors, he should take home the trophy. Paxton looks a little like the Clayton Kershaw at his best. He’s striking out tons of batters and has yet to allow a home run. If his walk rate was lower, he would be right there with Kershaw.

Enjoy!

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