For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.330, 0.723 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.315, 0.694 — Hyeseong Kim batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.313, 0.697 — Andy Pages batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.310, 0.700 — Shohei Ohtani batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.306, 0.691 — Miguel Rojas batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.304, 0.682 — Will Smith batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.298, 0.683 — Mookie Betts batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.295, 0.719 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Zack Littell.
- 0.295, 0.677 — Teoscar Hernandez batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.295, 0.701 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Casey Mize.
Even at Dodger Stadium, a Rockies pitcher has the ability to set bats on fire.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.330, 0.723 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.290, 0.721 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Dustin May.
- 0.295, 0.719 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Zack Littell.
- 0.295, 0.701 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Casey Mize.
- 0.271, 0.701 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Luis Garcia.
- 0.310, 0.700 — Shohei Ohtani batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.287, 0.698 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Mitchell Parker.
- 0.252, 0.697 — Miguel Andujar batting at Michael King.
- 0.313, 0.697 — Andy Pages batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.315, 0.694 — Hyeseong Kim batting vs. German Marquez.
Freeman is seven for 30 against Marquez in their careers with three walks and six strikeouts. Ohtani just beats out Arraez for the consensus double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!