Tag Archives: Jordan Montgomery

July 29, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these to projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Nationals offense as Montgomery allows a ton of hits this season. His K rate dropped about two per 9 IP compared to his previous two season. Combine that with a .346 BABIP, and he’s allowed 90 hits in 70 2/3 innings.

Note that the Blue Jays and Orioles play a traditional doubleheader this afternoon, and Eflin is scheduled to pitch the matinee. Miranda is listed as day to day after taking a pitch to the helmet.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.320, 0.736 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.329, 0.734 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.283, 0.711 — Steven Kwan batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.271, 0.710 — Jose Iglesias batting against Simeon Woods Richardson.
  • 0.312, 0.705 — Luis Garcia batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.281, 0.700 — Jose Miranda batting against Jose Quintana.
  • 0.252, 0.694 — Jose Altuve batting against Paul Skenes.
  • 0.286, 0.690 — Freddy Fermin batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.302, 0.687 — Juan Yepez batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.287, 0.686 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Zach Eflin.

Witt and Ramirez come in as the consensus double down picks. Witt is five for eight career against Flexen with a walk and no strikeouts. The Jrs sport ten game hit streaks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 21, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Phillies as Jordan Montgomery allowed 72 hits in 57 innings. He got a double whammy this season of a declining K rate leading to more balls in play, and the opposition producing a .348 BABIP.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.302, 0.745 — Luis Arraez batting against Colin Rea.
  • 0.327, 0.741 — Steven Kwan batting against Yariel Rodriguez.
  • 0.335, 0.729 — Trea Turner batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.321, 0.713 — Alec Bohm batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.276, 0.698 — Jose Altuve batting against Grayson Rodriguez.
  • 0.284, 0.698 — Freddie Freeman batting against Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.313, 0.697 — Miguel Andujar batting against Chris Paddack.
  • 0.291, 0.695 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.273, 0.690 — Gio Urshela batting against Erick Fedde.
  • 0.272, 0.688 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Grayson Rodriguez.

It’s nice to see Kwan coming into parity with Arraez. Picking the same player every single day only works if that player is set to break Joe DiMaggio‘s hit streak record. Arraez, in today’s game, represents a unique talent, and it looks like Kwan developed a similar skill. He is currently working on a fourteen game hit streak.

Kwan and Turner tie for the consensus top pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

March 29, 2024

Montgomery a Diamondback

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The Arizona Diamondbacks and pitcher Jordan Montgomery made their deal official. It’s a one-year, $25 million contract, but:

The contract includes a vesting option for 2025.

If Montgomery makes at least 10 starts this season, the option would become guaranteed at $20 million and the left-hander also would gain the right to opt out. The option price would escalate to $22.5 million if he makes 18 starts and to $25 million if he makes 23 starts — a figure he has reached in three straight seasons.

Chron.com

Montgomery average 3 1/3 WAR over the last three seasons, and the Diamondbacks are paying him for a bit over two in 2024. This is not one of free agency’s finest moments. I find it very strange that some team didn’t offer him $35 million for one year. It seems he would be worth it. Of course, we don’t know what kind of deals he turned down, either.

March 26, 2024

Montgomery Finds a Home

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The Arizona Diamondbacks agreed to a deal with pitcher Jordan Montgomery:

Left-handed starter Jordan Montgomery and the Arizona Diamondbacks are in agreement on a free agent deal, pending a physical, a source told ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Tuesday night.

Montgomery, 31, started 32 games this past season while compiling a combined 10-11 record with a 3.20 ERA in 188.2 innings for the St. Louis Cardinals and the Texas Rangers.

ESPN.com

I suspect we’ll know more about the deal tomorrow morning. We’ll see how long it takes Montgomery to join the team. He should slide in nicely to the second or third rotation slot.

October 28, 2023

Game Two Underway

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Jordan Montgomery of the Rangers makes quick work of the Diamondbacks in the top of the first inning. He uses his defense to get the side in order on two grounders and a fly ball. The Rangers come to bat with no score in the game.

Update: Merrill Kelly also retires the side in order in the bottom of the first, but he uses two strikeouts. We’ll wait to see if the offenses come to live.

October 28, 2023

Playoffs Today

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Game two of the 2023 World Series kicks off at 8 PM EDT on Fox. Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks visits Jordan Montgomery and the Rangers. Kelly held the opposition to a .153/.254/.339 slash line this post season. By keeping the bases free of runners, all five of the extra-base hits against him came with no one on. That’s keeping damage to a minimum. In three starts, he owns a 2.65 ERA.

Montgomery stands 3-0 in this post season with a 2.16 ERA, and overall in his seven playoff appearances he owns a 1.99 ERA. In 2023, his opposition slash line stands at .272/.296/.369. He limits walks instead of hits. Like Kelly, all six of the extra-base hits against him came with no one on. With a low strikeout rate, he takes advantage of the excellent Rangers defense.

Enjoy!

October 20, 2023

Playoffs Today

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The Astros and Rangers finish the Arlington leg of the ALCS Friday afternoon starting at 5 PM EDT. It’s a rematch of game one as Justin Verlander faces Jordan Montgomery. Verlander stands 1-1 in his two post-season starts in 2023. It’s been bend, don’t break for the veteran great. In 12 2/3 innings he’s walked five, but stuck out eleven and allowed just one home run. That’s good for a 1.42 ERA. Montgomery owns a 2.08 ERA in three starts this post-season. He got roughed up a bit in the ALDS, but pitched a combined 13 1/3 shutout innings in the Wild Card and LCS rounds.

At 8 PM EDT, the Phillies and Diamondbacks play game four of the NLCS. Cristopher Sanchez faces Joe Mantiply. Sanchez makes his first post-season appearance. In his third season in the majors, Sanchez greatly reduced his walks, issuing just sixteen free passes in 99 1/3 innings. That helped him to a 3.44 ERA. Mantiply serves as an opener, pitching three innings in his three starts this season. He allowed three hits and one run in that role. So far in the post-season he allowed three runs, three hits, and three walks in three innings. Not a bad poker hand.

Enjoy!

October 15, 2023

Playoffs Today

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The American League Championship series kicks off Sunday night at 8 PM EDT, 7 PM local, as the Texas Rangers visit the Houston Astros. Jordan Montgomery takes on Justin Verlander. Since joining the Rangers at the trade deadline, Montgomery improved his control. He walked thirteen batters in 67 2/3 inning during the regular season for Texas, and just one batter in eleven innings in the post season. He has allowed 76 hits in 78 2/3 innings, but few of those were home runs, and without a lot of other runners on base, his ERA is excellent.

Verlander appears in his ninth LCS, all in the American League. He gets decisions, 7-4 in twelve starts with a 3.01 ERA. He gives what one would expect from a future Hall of Famer; 90 strikeouts in 80 2/3 innings with just 18 walks. He is vulnerable to the home run, however, with twelve allowed in those innings.

Enjoy!

October 8, 2023

Playoffs Today

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Jordan Montgomery takes on Grayson Rodriguez as the Rangers and Orioles play game two of their ALDS at 4 PM EDT in Baltimore. Montgomery pitched well for the Rangers after his acquisition from the Cardinals, the posted seven scoreless innings in the wild card round. In three post-season games he allowed one run in 13 2/3 innings. The rookie Rodriguez found his groove after the All-Star break, posting a 2.58 ERA in that period, After allowing 13 home runs in his first 45 1/3 innings, he allowed three homers in his last 76 2/3 innings.

The Twins send Pablo Lopez against the Astros and Framber Valdez. Lopez pitched well in his brief post-season career, with 10 K and and two walks in 10 2/3 innings helping him to a 2.53 ERA. Valdez already owns 68 2/3 post-season innings with a 3.41 ERA and a 7-2 record. He allowed ten home runs in those innings, so the Twins might be able to take him deep.

Enjoy!

October 3, 2023

Playoffs Today

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The Rangers and Rays kick-off the 2023 post season in St. Petersburg as Jordan Montgomery faces Tyler Glasnow. Texas won the season series between the teams 4-2. Montgomery pitched decently for the Cardinals over the first two thirds of the season, owning a 3.42 ERA. When he joined the Rangers, he dialed down the walks to go 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA in eleven starts, averaging over six innings per start. Glasnow made 21 starts with excellent three-true outcomes. He struck out 162 batters in 120 innings with just 37 walks 13 home runs allowed. In his one start against the Rangers he allowed one hit and one run in six innings.

Toronto saved Kevin Gausman for the post-season as he gets the start in Minneapolis against the Twins and Pablo Lopez. Gausman blow batters away with 237 strikeouts in 185 innings. His home run rate is okay for someone in the strike zone with nineteen dingers allowed. The Twins do swing from the fences, so expect a lot of whiffs in the bottom halves of innings.

Lopez came over in the Luis Arraez deal, a trade that helped both teams make the playoffs. He tries to end Minnesota’s 18-game post-season losing streak. Twins starters own a 5.22 ERA over that streak, although there were a number of good starts. Nine of the losses went to the bullpen. Lopez pitched better after the All-Star Break, going 6-3 with a 3.36 ERA. He cut down on walks, issuing eleven in 83 innings.

Arizona travels to Milwaukee to start the NL Wild Card round with Brandon Pfaadt against Corbin Burnes. With the Diamondbacks going down to the wire to make the playoffs, neither of their outstanding starers is able to go in game one. The rookie Pfaadt fought hard during the season, but ended with a 5.72 ERA as he allowed 22 home runs in 96 innings. Fifteen of those 22 homers came on the road, although his ERA away came in lower. Burnes gets the game one start due to an injury to Brandon Woodruff. Burnes, with high strikeout rate and a great defense behind him allowed just 141 hits in 193 2/3 innings this season. Burnes owns a 1.20 post-season ERA, although that came mostly in relief.

Finally, the Marlins visit the Phillies with Jesus Luzardo taking on Zack Wheeler. Luzardo won both is starts against the Phillies, striking out 14 and walking two in 12 1/3 innings. Wheeler made three starts against the Marlins averaging six innings each with a 3.00 ERA, but did not get a decision. The Phillies went 1-2 in those three games. It looks like Arraez will start for the Marlins.

I would not be surprised if the start came at designated hitter, however.

Enjoy!

September 23, 2023

Games of the Day

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The Mets face the Phillies as Philadelphia tries to edge closer to clinching a wild card berth. Their magic number against the Marlins is three and against the Reds is one. Jose Quintana takes the mound against Zack Wheeler. Quintana owns a 3.02 ERA in 65 2/3 innings. He allowed just two home runs this season, and the Phillies will challenge that number. Wheeler is 4-4 with a 3.62 ERA against his old team in 13 starts.

Brandon Woodruff takes on Jesus Luzardo as the Brewers go for a division clinch against the Marlins. Woodruff is a big reason for the Brewers last season surge, going 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA since returning from the illjured list. Luzardo went in the opposite direction, 2-4 with a 5.23 ERA since the start of August.

The Mariners try to even their series with Texas as Logan Gilbert battles Jordan Montgomery. Gilbert improved his walk and strikeout rates this season, but twelve more home runs led to an ERA about half a run higher. Montgomery walked just nine batters in 54 2/3 innings since joining the Rangers.

Enjoy!

September 2, 2023

Games of the Day

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The Cubs and Reds continue their series with Javier Assad taking on Andrew Abbott. Assad owns a slightly better ERA as a starter, 2.81 versus 3.06. He allowed fewer home runs as a reliever, but walks many fewer batters as a starter. Abbott goes for his ninth win in his seventeenth MLB start. He struck out 99 in his first 88 2/3 innings.

The Twins and Rangers meet again in Texas with Dallas Keuchel facing Jordan Montgomery. Keuchel struck out just six batters in eighteen innings. His 3.50 ERA is due to none of the 20 hits he allowed leaving he park, and only four of them going for extra-bases. Montgomery stands 2-1 in five starts since the trade from the Cardinals. He struck out 30 and walked five in 31 1/3 innings for the Rangers.

The Orioles send Kyle Bradish against the Diamondbacks and Slade Cecconi. As Kyle works to become more Brad, he dropped his ERA nearly two runs from his rookie season of 2022. His innings are up from last season, while his walks and home runs are down in his sophomore surge. The rookie Cecconi comes into the game with a 2.57 ERA. He has yet to walk a batter in Arizona, with 12 1/3 inning in his home park

Enjoy!

August 21, 2023

Games of the Day

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The Red Sox sit three games out of the AL Wild Card as they open a series in Houston, one of the teams they could catch for a playoff berth. James Paxton takes on Cristian Javier. Paxton is back to the form he last exhibited in 2019, striking out lots of batters and limiting walks. Javier owns an 8-2 record despite a 4.49 ERA. The Astros scored at least six runs in 15 of his 23 starts.

Texas tries to get back on the winning track as they send Jordan Montgomery against the Diamondbacks and rookie Slade Cecconi. Montgomery makes his fourth start for the Rangers. So far with the team, he walked two and struck out 20 in 18 innings. Cecconi makes the third start and fourth appearance of his young career. His low ERA so far is due mostly to good situational pitching, holding opponents to a .133/.235/.267 slash line with men on base.

Enjoy!

July 30, 2023

Rangers Add More Pitching

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The Rangers make a deal with the Cardinals, trading prospects for pitching:

The Texas Rangers further fortified themselves for a championship run Sunday, acquiring left-handed starter Jordan Montgomery and right-handed reliever Chris Stratton from the St. Louis Cardinals one day after finalizing a deal for ace Max Scherzer.

With the best offense in baseball, the Rangers tapped into their plentiful minor league system, sending two top prospects — infielder Thomas Saggese and right-hander Tekoah Roby — along with left-handed reliever John King to St. Louis.

ESPN.com

Montgomery is a consistently good pitcher, and with Texas’s offense he should win a lot with a mid threes ERA. Stratton is what teams want in a reliever, high strikeouts and low walks. Both these players improve the team and provide depth.

As for the prospects, Saggese is tearing up AA at seasonal age 21, and did well there in a handful of plate appearances last season. Roby owns a 5.05 ERA as a 21 year old at AA, but his three true outcomes are much better than that ERA. His high K rate has not led to a low hit rate. King is seasonal age 28 and appears to be someone who the Cardinals can use right now to play out the season.

Saggese might be someone who can help the Cardinals next year.

July 2, 2023

Games of the Day

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The Yankees send Gerrit Cole against Cardinals starter and former teammate Jordan Montgomery. Cole owns the third highest K rate in the majors since the Yankees acquired him in 2020 (min 350 innings). Note that his BB rate is superior to the two pitchers in front of him, Blake Snell and Shohei Ohtani. Montgomery stands 11-10 with a 3.35 ERA since the trade to the Cardinals last season. He allowed just 15 home runs in 155 2/3 innings.

Zac Gallen goes for his eleventh win as he leads the Diamondbacks against the Angels and Reid Detmers. Gallen’s three true outcomes are all good, but his walks are particularly low, with just 22 issued in 104 1/3 innings. Detmers holds a 3.77 ERA for the second season in a row. His record stands at 1-5 after going 7-6 in 2022. The Angels scored two runs or less in six of his 14 starts. On top of that, Angels relievers own a 5.91 ERA in his starts, blowing three of six save opportunities.

The Sunday night game features the Giants at the Mets, and may be the slugfest of the day. Ross Stripling of the Giants owns a 6.88 ERA and allowed ten home runs in 35 1/3 innings. David Peterson of the Mets comes in with a 7.00 ERA and allowed eight home runs in 45 innings. The Mets offense ranks fourth in the NL with 103 home runs, the Giants fifth with 99 dingers.

Enjoy!

May 10, 2023

Games of the Day

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If you like slugfests, go to your local pub at 12:30 PM EDT for the Athletics against the Yankees. Kyle Muller with a 6.62 ERA takes the mound for Oakland, while Jhony Brito with a 6.02 ERA twirls for New York. Batters slug .475 against Brito, .500 against Muller.

Go to lunch a little later if you prefer a pitching duel as Clayton Kershaw leads the Dodgers against Wade Miley in Milwaukee. Kershaw allowed six home runs in 42 2/3 innings, but with few hits and walks allowed his ERA stands at 2.53. Miley struck out 21 and walked six in 35 innings, so batters are putting the ball in play. Those are only good for a .264 BABIP, so even without shifts batters can’t find the holes.

The Rangers and Mariners give the west coast a nice lunch battle, on the air at 12:40 PDT. Dane Dunning faces Luis Castillo. Dunning makes his second start of 2023 after eight relief appearances. Like Miley, batters put the ball in play against Dunning, but managed just 14 hits in 25 1/3 innings. Castillo pitches well but does not get decisions as he stands 2-0 in seven starts with a 2.38 ERA. The Mariners are 4-3 in his starts.

I like the Mets and Reds match-up of Justin Verlander and Hunter Greene, just for the age contrast. Both blow away batters, but Verlander was better at limiting home runs at a young age.

Finally, Jordan Montgomery and the Cardinals battle the Cubs and Justin Steele. Montgomery pitched well this season, but was the victim of the Cardinals offense scoring nothing three times. Steele continued his improvement of 2021, bring his ERA down to 1.45 in 43 1/3 innings. He allowed just 30 hits and two home runs.

Enjoy!

April 18, 2023

Games of the Day

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The Angels visit the Yankees, and the game will feature the last two AL MVPs, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. Since the start of the 2021 season, Judge and Ohtani rank 1-2 in the American League in home runs (1-3 in the majors) respectively. Note that Judge hit significantly better than Ohtani with 23 more homers and a much better slash line. Of course, Ohtani is a top pitcher as well, two players in one. Ohtani won’t be pitching in this game, so the two can play home run derby. Of course, Mike Trout is there as well, easily the best hitter of his generation.

Arizona sends Drey Jameson against the Cardinals and Jordan Montgomery. Jameson is now 5-0 in his MLB career in eight appearances, five of them starts. He struck out 36 and walked 12 in 36 2/3 innings helping him to a 1.47 ERA. Montgomery stands 8-4 with a 2.96 ERA since being traded to the Cardinals in the middle of the 2022 season. He allowed just six home runs in 82 innings.

The Mets continue their series with the Dodgers as Tylor Megill faces Clayton Kershaw. Megill won his first three starts of the season despite averaging just 5 1/3 innings. Without a chance to get in trouble, his ERA stands at 2.25. Kershaw has allowed more unearned runs (4) than earned runs (3) this season. Opponents have managed some power against him with three home runs allowed in 18 innings.

Enjoy!

September 24, 2022

Games of the Day

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Xander Bogaerts and Aaron Judge continue their AL batting race in New York, as Judge simultaneously goes for the AL single season home run record and the triple crown against the Red Sox. Bogaerts took the night off Friday. Bogaerts hits Domingo German well, six for twenty with three extra-base hits. Judge hits Nick Pivetta better, five for eleven with two home runs and four walks.

The Blue Jays need a win to move back into the top AL Wild Card slot, as the Rays now own the tie-breaker between the two teams. Alek Manoah takes on Drew Rasmussen in Tampa Bay. Manoah owns a 1.69 ERA in six career starts against the Rays, but his record is just 3-2. The losses came in his one poor start against them and when he allowed two unearned runs. Rasmussen owns a 2.51 ERA in seven games against the Blue Jays, with a 1-2 record. Rasmussen tends not to go deep in games.

Finally, the Cardinals try to move closer to clinching the NL Central as they send Jordan Montgomery against the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw. Montgomery improved an already good season after his trade to St. Louis, now with a 5-2 record and a 2.35 ERA in the NL. He allowed just three home runs in 53 2/3 innings. Kershaw owns a 1.50 ERA in four starts since returning from his latest injury. He walked four and struck out 29 in 24 innings.

Enjoy!

September 13, 2022

Games of the Day

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Game one of the doubleheader between the Rays and the Blue Jays in Toronto features Jeffrey Springs and Cy Young candidate Alek Manoah. Springs owns a 2.80 ERA since joining Tampa Bay after posting a 5.42 ERA with Texas and Boston. Manoah is now 23-9 for his career, allowing just 206 hits in 282 2/3 innings.

The Brewers trails the Cardinals by eight games in the NL Central, and are two games back in the NL Wild Card race as they travel to St. Louis for a two game series. They also play a two game series against St. Louis the last week of September. Milwaukee needs a lot of help to win the division. Matt Bush takes on Jordan Montgomery. Both trade deadline pick ups, Bush allowed four home runs in 16 1/3 innings for Milwaukee, while Montgomery allowed just seven runs in 43 1/3 innings for the Cardinals.

The Padres send Yu Darvish against Logan Gilbert in Seattle, San Diego holding on by a thread for an NL West title. Both teams are in Wild Card contention, the Mariners, however, owning a high probability of making the playoffs while the Padres still have to worry about Milwaukee. Darvish improved his control this season compared to 2021. He walked ten fewer batters in 2 1/3 more innings. Gilbert’s improved ERA is due mostly to holding batters to a .298 OBP.

Finally, the Dodgers go for a division title as they send Clayton Kershaw against the Diamondbacks and Merrill Kelly. Kershaw is not at his best in Arizona, 8-10 with a 3.89 ERA in 21 starts. Kelly avoided hits this season despite a low K rate, allowing just 137 hits in 171 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

August 22, 2022

The Full Monty

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The Cardinals acquisition of Jordan Montgomery from the Yankees may be the best deal of the trade deadline. Montgomery threw a one-hitter against the Cubs Monday night in a 1-0 Cardinals victory. It was Montgomery’s first career complete game and shutout.

Since joining the Cardinals he allowed one run in 25 2/3 innings, giving up just 13 hits, and received the winning decision in all four starts. He only managed six decisions in twenty one starts for the Yankees.

Albert Pujols hit his 693rd home run for the only run of the game.

August 12, 2022

Games of the Day

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The Guardians visit the Blue Jays as both vie for an AL Post-Season slot. Cleveland leads Minnesota by 1 1/2 games in the AL Central. Toronto owns the top wild card slot, 2 1/2 games in front of the fourth seed, the Orioles. Cal Quantrill takes on Jose Berrios. Quantrill, who never had a high K rate, saw his plunge this season to 5.8 per nine innings. Despite batters making contract, Quantrill’s innings and hits allowed are even at 123. Berrios stands 8-4 despite a 5.19 ERA. The Blue Jays scored five runs or more in 13 of his 22 starts.

The Phillies visit the Mets with Rangers Suarez facing Max Scherzer. The Phillies hold a 12-2 record in their last fourteen games, yet lost 1/2 game in the standings as the Mets went 13-2 in the same stretch! Philadelphia has closed the gap with the Braves, and are now 3 1/2 games back for the first NL Wild Card slot. Suarez faced the Mets just once this season and allowed three runs in 2 2/3 innings. Scherzer is 2-1 against Philadelphia, but with a 4.24 ERA in 17 innings. Eight of the 23 runs he allowed this season came of Philadelphia bats.

Finally, the Brewers trail the Cardinals by 1/2 game in the NL Central as the teams play in St. Louis. Eric Lauer takes on Jordan Montgomery. In a down year for homers, Lauer allowed 20 in 112 2/3 innings compared to 16 in 118 2/3 innings last season. Montgomery threw five shutout innings in his Cardinals debut after his acquisition from the Yankees. Overall he holds a 3.53 ERA on the season.

Enjoy!

July 26, 2022

Games of the Day

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The Rays continue their series in Baltimore with Shane McClanahan facing Spenser Watkins. McClanahan allowed just one run in each of his last five starts, and thirteen starts in a row where he allowed two earned runs or fewer. Watkins pitched about the same number of innings as last season, dropping his ERA a little over four runs. He allowed twenty two fewer hits and nine fewer home runs.

The Braves try to even their series with the Phillies as Spencer Strider takes on Aaron Nola. Strider comes into the game with a 3.03 ERA, which seems high for someone who struck out 114 in 74 1/3 innings, allowing just 48 hits. Ten of the fourteen extra-base hits against him came with men on base. Nola’s 3.13 ERA is helped by giving up just 16 walks in 126 2/3 innings.

The Yankees send Jordan Montgomery against the Mets and Taijuan Walker as the first place teams battle in Queens. Montgomery is Mr. No Decision, with just a 3-2 record in 19 starts. He averages just 5 2/3 innings per start. Walker cut his home run rate from 1.47 per 9 IP in 2021 to 0.39 in 2022. That helped lower his ERA over two runs.

Enjoy!

June 17, 2022

Games of the Day

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The Yankees take off to the Great White North as they send Jordan Montgomery against the Blue Jays and Ross Stripling. Montgomery is off to a great start in June with just one walk allowed in 13 1/3 innings, helping him to a 1.35 ERA for the month. Stripling improved both his walk and home runs rates compared to 2021, dropping his ERA from 4.80 to 3.14.

It’s all red in Boston as the Cardinals visit the Red Sox. Adam Wainwright takes on former teammate Michael Wacha. Wainwright came in 2005, and since the start of that season he owns the third lowest HR/9 IP in the majors. Wacha started off the current 15 game streak of excellent pitching by the Red Sox starters on May 31st. He owns a 1.42 ERA in three starts in that stretch.

June 11, 2022

Games of the Day

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The Yankees and Cubs continue their series in The Bronx as Matt Swarmer takes on Jordan Montgomery. Swamer makes his third MLB start, and so far impressed with a 1.50 ERA. Four of the five runs he allowed came on the three home run hit against him. Opponents need the long ball as they hold a .217 OBP against him. Montgomery holds the Mr. No Decision slot, with a 1-1 record in eleven starts. Part of that is Montgomery averaging less than six innings per start, and part of that is the Yankees scoring three runs or less in six of his appearances.

Clayton Kershaw returns from his latest injury as the Dodgers face the Giants in San Francisco with Sam Long on the mound. Kershaw won four of his first five starts without a loss. He pitched like the Kershaw of old, with three walks and 32 strikeouts in thirty innings. Long worked mostly out of the bullpen this season. As an opener he allowed one run in four innings, walking none and striking out three.

Enjoy!

May 31, 2022

Games of the Day

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The Angels visit the Yankees with Noah Syndergaard facing Jordan Montgomery. Syndergaard is not blowing away batters as in the past, but his control is great with just eight walks in 38 innings. Montgomery is even better with his eight walks coming in 46 1/3 innings. Montgomery does give up the long-ball, but allows a .156 BA with runners in scoring position.

The injured and unvaccinated White Sox travel to Toronto down some players as Lucas Giolito takes on Kevin Gausman. Giolito struck out 51 batters in 37 2/3 innings, allowing just thirty three hits. Gausman allowed just one home run in 56 innings and owns the fifth lowest HR/9 IP since the start of the 2021 season.

Enjoy!

May 2, 2022

Games of the Day

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Zac Gallen takes on Pablo Lopez as the Diamondbacks visit the Marlins. It’s a very low ERA start, Gallen coming in with an 0.60 ERA, Lopez 0.39. Neither allowed a home run this season. Gallen allowed just six hits in 15 innings, Lopez 13 hits in 23 1/3 innings.

The Yankees visit the Blue Jays as the first and second place teams in the AL East square off. Jordan Montgomery faces Ross Stripling. Montgomery pitched well in four starts with a 2.70 ERA but only has a loss to show for it. He’s averaging five innings per start. Stripling so far held opponents to a .274 OBP and a .281 slugging percentage.

Enjoy!

April 21, 2022

Games of the Day

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It should be an exciting day in Detroit as the Yankees face the Tigers. The big match-up will be Yankees pitcher Jordan Montgomery facing legend Miguel Cabrera, Cabrera needing one hit to reach the 3000 hit milestone. According to Baseball Reference, he will be the 33rd player to reach that level. The Tigers continue their home stand over the weekend, so it looks like Cabrera will reach the goal in front of his home town fans. In his career, he poked James Shields for the most hits against any pitcher, 27.

At the same time, the White Sox and Guardians offer a good potential pitching duel as Dylan Cease takes on Zach Plesac. Cease allowed just five hits and two runs in 10 2/3 innings so far this season. Plesac comes in at two runs in eleven innings, and just one walk.

Enjoy!

April 10, 2022

Games of the Day

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The Orioles send Tyler Wells against potential Rays ace Corey Kluber. Wells might be a bright spot in the Orioles rotation. In his season age 27 season, he is right at his peak, and in the minors and majors he has a history of good three-true outcome seasons. Kluber comes off another injury shortened season, but did strike out 82 batters in 80 innings for the Yankees and allowed just eight home runs. Once again, he is on a one-year contract to show he can pitch.

The Mariners and Twins continue their series with Marco Gonzales taking on Bailey Ober. Despite a low strikeout rate in 2021, Gonzales only allowed 125 hits in 143 1/3 innings. Twenty nine of those were home runs, however. Ober, with a high K rate in his rookie year, was more hittable. If he ever gets injured, he’s lucky the Mayo Clinic is nearby:

Finally, the Yankees go for a sweep of the Red Sox in New York on Sunday Night Baseball. Tanner Houck takes on Jordan Montgomery. Houck with 86 MLB innings under his belt owns a 2.93 ERA. His strength is keeping the ball in the park with just five home runs allowed. Montgomery does a good job of keeping batters off base, with a career .305 OBP allowed.

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October 2, 2021

Games of the Day

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Rookie Shane Baz of the Rays makes his third career start against the Yankees and Jordan Montgomery. Baz so far struck out 14 and walked one in 10 2/3 innings. The two runs he allowed came on solo home runs. Montgomery makes his sixth start against the Rays this season. He is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA although he allowed five home runs in 28 1/3 innings. A win by the Yankees puts them in the wild card game.

The Orioles send John Means against Alek Manoah of the Blue Jays. Means managed to avoid the Blue Jays up until this point. So far in September he owns a 2.76 ERA, but a 1-2 record. Manoah is another outstanding rookie, 8-2 with a 3.35 ERA. He had problems with the Orioles, however, allowing four home runs in 9 2/3 innings.

The Giants can clinch the NL West with a win against the Padres in San Francisco Saturday afternoon. Joe Musgrove takes on Kevin Guasman. The Giants pounded Musgrove this season, scoring 18 runs in 21 2/3 innings against him, hitting six home runs. Gausman is 2-1 against the Padres in five starts with a 3.54 ERA.

Seattle could find themselves in a must-win game as they host the Angels late Saturday night. Rookie Jhonathan Diaz faces Chris Flexen. Diaz walked five in 8 2/3 innings, but kept the ball in the park to only allow three runs. Flexen is 2-0 in three starts against the Angels with a 2.00 ERA. He only struck out eight Angels in 18 innings.

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September 26, 2021

Games of the Day

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Toronto needs a win gain in the AL Wild Card race as they send Alek Manoah against the Twins and Griffin Jax, a battle to true rookies. Control issues led to a 4.01 ERA for Manoah in September as he walked 12 batters in 24 2/3 innings. Control represents Jax’s strong point, as he walked 27 batters in 72 innings. Unfortunately, he also allowed 21 home runs. Forty two of the seventy five hits against him went for extra bases.

The Mariners also try to stay relevant in the wild card race as Marco Gonzales faces Shohei Ohtani of the Angels. Gonzales owns an 8-0 record in his last thirteen starts, posting a 2.95 ERA. He allows his defense to help, with 5.9 K per 9 IP and 1.9 BB per 9 IP. Despite lots of balls in play, he allowed just 64 hits in 79 1/3 innings. Ohtani pitched great in Anaheim, 6-0 with a 2.02 ERA versus 3-2 witha 5.02 ERA on the road. Looking at his numbers, it may just be bad luck away from home.

If the Mariners lose, the Astros can clinch the AL West with a win over the Athletics. Jake Odorizzi battles Paul Blackburn. Odorizzi does not go deep in games. In three September starts he owns a 2.38 ERA, but lasted just 11 1/3 innings. Blackburn allowed just eight walks in his 31 1/3 innings this season, but also gave up five home runs.

Finally, the Yankees go for a sweep of the Red Sox at Fenway as Jordan Montgomery takes on Eduardo Rodriguez. Montgomery makes his fifth start of the season against Boston. He’s 0-2 with a 3.63 ERA but good three-true outcomes. Rodriguez also make his fifth start in opposition, and is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA against New York, with better three-true outcomes.

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