Tag Archives: Sal Frelick

October 13, 2025

Never Saw That Before

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Max Muncy of the Dodgers comes to the plate with one out and the bases loaded. He hits a ball to the centerfield wall, where it hits off Brewers Sal Frelick‘s glove and hits the wall. Frelick then catches the ball, but the Dodgers runners don’t realize the ball wasn’t caught. Frelick throws to the shortstop, who throws home, was Teoscar Hernandez is trying to score after tagging up. The ball comes to William Contreras, who catches the ball with his foot on the plate, and the umpire calls on Hernandez on the force. Contreras then runs to third base, as the other runners held up, and gets the double play when he steps on the bag.

The play reviewed and confirmed, one of the most unusual double plays you’ll ever see. The leftfield umpire did signal safe on the fly ball, I just don’t believe the Dodgers runners saw it.

There is no score in the bottom of the fourth.

Update:

June 29, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Opponents are hitting .313/.367/.480 against Marquez. A singles hitter should have a field day against him. Frelick is a singles hitter, with a career isolated power of 0.087.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.312, 0.734 — Jacob Wilson batting at Marcus Stroman.
  • 0.307, 0.720 — Ernie Clement batting at Walker Buehler.
  • 0.280, 0.717 — Luis Arraez batting at Nick Lodolo.
  • 0.301, 0.710 — Aaron Judge batting vs. Luis Severino.
  • 0.297, 0.704 — Jonathan Aranda batting at Dean Kremer.
  • 0.297, 0.703 — Xavier Edwards batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.295, 0.702 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
  • 0.306, 0.702 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.299, 0.702 — Alejandro Kirk batting at Walker Buehler.
  • 0.289, 0.701 — Yandy Diaz batting at Dean Kremer.
  • 0.316, 0.700 — Sal Frelick batting vs. German Marquez.

This list goes to eleven today to get Frelick on both. Wilson tops this one and is the consensus top pick. Stroman comes off the illjured list after giving up 13 hits in 10 1/3 innings at AA. I would not rule out Clement playing at Fenway either. He is a rising star of the NN.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 28, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Like Friday, the Brewers get the opportunity to pound a Rockies starter. All four collected hits in the game against Freeland. With a two for four, Frelick is now batting .299 on the season. Turang and Yelich own 11 and 10 game hit streak respectively.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.351, 0.723 — Sal Frelick batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.325, 0.722 — Jonathan Aranda batting at Zach Eflin.
  • 0.312, 0.717 — Aaron Judge batting vs. JP Sears.
  • 0.317, 0.717 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Colin Rea.
  • 0.310, 0.717 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.314, 0.716 — Yandy Diaz batting at Zach Eflin.
  • 0.298, 0.714 — Ronald Acuna batting vs. Jesus Luzardo.
  • 0.299, 0.712 — Ernie Clement batting at Lucas Giolito.
  • 0.336, 0.711 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.302, 0.707 — Steven Kwan batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.331, 0.707 — Christian Yelich batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.

There is very little difference in probability in this group, and it’s another low probability day. Frelick is he unanimous top choice, with Aranda the consensus double down pick. He owns a .425 BABIP this season. If you include the MLB top nine, Judge and Yelich are the only players on all three lists.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 27, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Freeland pitched much better on the road this season, so the Brewers batters may be a bit overrated here. Frelick does own low walk and strikeout rates with a high BABIP, so he is a good candidate for extending a hit streak. Turang and Yelich are both working on decent streaks.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.305, 0.732 — Luis Arraez batting at Nick Martinez.
  • 0.299, 0.729 — Jacob Wilson batting at Will Warren.
  • 0.311, 0.722 — Aaron Judge batting vs. Mitch Spence.
  • 0.298, 0.713 — Jackson Merrill batting at Nick Martinez.
  • 0.334, 0.713 — Sal Frelick batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.296, 0.708 — Trea Turner batting at Bryce Elder.
  • 0.295, 0.706 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Cade Horton.
  • 0.283, 0.706 — Ronald Acuna batting vs. Mick Abel.
  • 0.322, 0.704 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.281, 0.703 — Ernie Clement batting at Brayan Bello.

The non-Brewers rise to the top of this list. Wilson and Judge are a good double down pair if you just want to pay attention to one game. Frelick gets the consensus top pick with Arraez the double down.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

October 4, 2024

Best Batter Today

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None of the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings played on Friday, but Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Jose Ramirez return to action on Saturday. Francisco Lindor of the Mets and Sal Frelick of the Brewers tie for the best game score of the day at 63. Frelick went two for four with a home run, while Lindor posted a two for three with a double and walk in the 4-2 Mets victory that shocked a stadium full of Brewers fans. Lindor also turned the game ending double play that sent the Mets to the NLDS against the Phillies, and now stands seventh in the rankings.

October 3, 2024

Jake Jacks

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Jake Bauers slams a pinch-hit home run in the bottom of the seventh to break up a scoreless game and put the Brewers up 1-0. Sal Frelick follows with a solo shot of his own for the insurance run, and the Brewers take control of an extremely well pitched game. Jose Butto came on to pitch for New York after six shutout innings for Jose Quintana. He walked one and struck out five in his stint, allowing just four hits.

August 4, 2023

Best Batter Today

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The order of the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings remains unchanged after Thursday’s games. Shohei Ohtani of the Angels cramped up on the mound after four scoreless inning, but managed a two for two night with two walks and his fortieth home run of the season. I estimate he’ll finish the season with 55 home runs. The Mariners score four runs in the top of the ninth, however, to defeat the Angels 5-3 as LAnaheim loses their third game in a row.

Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers hit two doubles and a home run in five plate appearances in an 8-2 win over the Athletics. Freeman reaches 40 doubles for the fourth time in his career. He set his career high of 47 two baggers in 2022.

The Padres and Braves did not play on Thursday, leaving Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson in third, fourth, and fifth place respectively.

Sal Frelick of the Brewers posted the highest game score of the day, a 78, in a 14-1 drubbing of the Pirates. The rookie rightfielder went two for three with two walks and his first two MLB home runs. In a dozen games he’s walked eleven times and collected nine hits for a .435 OBP. The Boston native owned a .393 OBP in the minors.