Tag Archives: Shelby Miller

February 1, 2018

Miller Wins, but Why Arbitrate?

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Shelby Miller won his arbitration case against the Diamondbacks:

With Shelby Miller being the lone un-signed arbitration eligible player, it came down to actual arbitration to determine Miller’s 2018 salary. Miller’s camp filed for $4.9M, the number that MLB Trade Rumors projected, and the Diamondbacks filed for $4.7M. After going to a hearing, Miller ended up winning the case and will get a $200k pay-raise in 2018. With this ruling, the entire arbitration class has been signed.

Who goes to arbitration over $200,000? Both sides might have combined to spend that much money on the case. Very strange.

April 23, 2017

Games of the Day

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This might be slugfest Sunday, as there are a number of pitchers with high ERAs taking the mound today. One of the more interesting match-ups takes place in Pittsburgh, where Jordan Montgomery leads the Yankees against the Pirates and former Yankees pitcher Ivan Nova. The Field Marshal make his third career start, and so far the results are mixed. He struck out 11 in 10 2/3 innings (very good), walked four (okay), and allowed two home runs (poor). Despite the high K rate, opponents managed 12 hits. Nova comes into the game with a 2.25 ERA. He has yet to walk a batter this season in 20 innings. Nova throughout his career kept walks low, but this is taking it to another level. Only Noah Syndergaard pitched more innings this season without a walk.

Cleveland sends Danny Salazar against the White Sox and Derek Holland. The Indians won five in a row, and the White Sox can use a victory to narrow the gap in the AL Central. Salazar is blowing away batters with 27 strikeouts in just 17 2/3 innings. That’s the highest strikeout rate in the majors for a pitcher with at least 15 innings worked. He gave up a high number of hits, however, as his BABIP allowed stands at .385. Over 30% of the balls in play against him were scored as line drives. Holland keeps batters off base, with a .292 OBP allowed so far.

Finally, Brandon McCarthy faces Shelby Miller as the third-place Dodgers try to gain on the second-place Diamondbacks. McCarthy gives up few hits, and amplifies that by limiting them to singles. Of his 13 hits allowed, only two went for extra bases. Miller seems to have found himself again, striking out 17 batters in 18 innings, with just one home run allowed.

Enjoy!

September 17, 2016

Games of the Day

The Pirates are fading out of the playoff race as they send Jameson Taillon against the Reds and ace Anthony DeSclafani. Rookie Taillon showed great control so far, walking just 13 batters in 88 innings while striking out 72. He does have a tendency to allow home run, which should hurt him in Cincinnati. DeSclafani found his groove at age 26, and like Taillon, his strength is denying walks.

The Tigers try to even their series with the Indians as Justin Verlander faces Carlos Carrasco. The Indians magic number to eliminate the Tigers from the AL Central title is nine. Verlander had his problems with Cleveland this year, making a good start early but two poor ones since. Cleveland hit seven home runs in 16 2/3 innings against him. That’s a quarter of the home runs Verlander allowed this season. Carrasco, on the other hand, allowed just one run to the Tigers in three starts this season, holding them to eight hits in 17 2/3 innings.

The slugfest of the day may take place in Arizona, where rookie Brock Stewart takes on the cursed Shelby Miller. Stewart allowed five home runs and eleven walks in his first 22 innings, helping him to a 6.55 ERA. Miller allowed 13 home runs in 84 2/3 innings, but nine of those came with men on base.

Enjoy!

June 20, 2016

Miller Returns

Shelby Miller made a successful return from injury holding the Phillies to one run in 6 2/3 innings. More importantly, his walks and strikeouts seem to be back in sync. He walked one and struck out five. Before he went on the disabled list, Miller was over two more walks per nine innings compared to his career, and about one and a half fewer strikeouts per nine innings, compared to his career. Miller tried to pitch through an injury to his finger, but what appears to be a minor injury can have major consequences.

Now that Miller is back, and Zack Greinke figured out Chase Field, I wonder if the Diamondbacks can make a run at the playoffs? They are only 5 1/2 games out of the wild card, and Miami and the Dodgers don’t look that strong.

May 27, 2016

Shelby Shelved

The Diamondbacks send Shelby Miller to the disabled list:

Miller is likely being placed with the finger issue that popped up in his start in San Diego. Miller scraped the mound with his bare knuckles during the 2nd inning of that start and lasted only one batter further before getting pulled. Chip Hale was quoted as recently as yesterday that the finger is still bothering Miller. My only question is why they let Miller go another month if the finger was still bothering him, but that’s a better discussion for the comments section of this page than the article itself.

I suspect they needed to get him off the mound and really find out what is wrong with him, and the finger gives Arizona a legitimate reason for a trip to the DL. Miller is the kind of pitcher who might very well be worse than his career numbers indicate. Until this season, his FIP was always higher than his ERA. I could see him changing to a team where the defense is not as good and posting a four ERA. Pitching this poorly, however, indicates something else is wrong. Maybe if it is just the finger, some time off might help.

April 5, 2016

The Six Spot

For the second game in a row, Colorado hung a six-run inning on a new Arizona acquisition. Tuesday night, Shelby Miller gets the Zack Greinke treatment as Trevor Story, Nick Hundley, and D.J. LeMahieu all go deep. For Story, it’s his third home run of the season.

It’s also impressive to see the Rockies doing this on the road. Arizona might be the closest park to Colorado in the majors, but scoring on the road was a problem for Colorado in 2015.

December 9, 2015

Disagreeing on Miller

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I liked the acquisition of Shelby Miller by the Diamondbacks, but most critics do not:

The early reviews are in, and they are not good for the Diamondbacks.

“Worst trade I’ve ever seen,” one executive said of the D-backs’ acquisition of right-hander Shelby Miller on Tuesday.

“Holy crap for Atlanta,” said another.

“Grand slam for the Braves,” said a third.

The article does go on to raise some of the concerns I had with the Braves haul. It will be interesting to see how this trade plays out. The Diamondbacks are creating buzz, which should bring out some fans. If they end up making the playoffs, I suspect they will think the trade paid off.

Update: Note, also, how bereft of talent the Braves organization was in 2015. I think they need to do a lot more to get back in contention.

December 8, 2015

Diamondbacks Have a 1-2 Punch

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The Diamondbacks trade three players to the Braves for pitcher Shelby Miller.

A person familiar with the deal tells The Associated Press the Arizona Diamondbacks have acquired All-Star right-hander Shelby Miller from the Atlanta Braves for overall No. 1 draft pick Dansby Swanson, outfielder Ender Inciarte and pitching prospect Aaron Blair.

The Diamondbacks also get minor league left-hander Gabe Speier in a trade that gives Arizona its second top-flight starter in one day.

Miller was one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors in 2015, going 6-17 despite a 3.02 ERA. On the other hand, his ERA may have been a bit lucky, since his FIP came in at 3.45 and his xFIP at 4.07. Miller allowed a .285 BABIP last season, but he allowed a low BABIP throughout his career, and the .285 mark was higher than his .274 career mark. It’s possible his low BABIP is real.

Swanson spent a year at low A Ball, hitting .289/.394/.482. I’m not overly impressed because he did that at age 21. Inciarte is an established major league outfield. He hits for a high batting average, but not much else. His power is limited to doubles and triples. He is just entering his prime, however, so he might still get a bit better. Blair doesn’t walk many batters, but his K rate has varied from ok to great depending on his level in the minors.

Miller gives the Diamondbacks an excellent #2 starter. The Braves get two players who likely help right away, and a third that needs a year or two in the higher minors to prove himself. Looks to me like the DBacks made a very good deal.

September 16, 2015

Games of the Day

The Cubs and Pirates play game three of their four-game set with Jake Arrieta taking on A.J. Burnett. Arrieta is on fire. He allowed no earned runs in seven of his last 11 starts, posting a 0.93 ERA. He allowed just two home runs in 77 1/3 innings. Burnett makes his second start since returning from injury. He allowed just 38 walks in 140 1/3 innings this season.

David Price takes on the unlucky Shelby Miller as the Blue Jays play the Braves. Price is 6-1 with a 2.28 ERA since joining the Blue Jays. Miller is 5-14 despite a 2.86 ERA. Part of the problem is ten unearned runs allowed, most of it is poor run support. The Braves have not scored more than three runs in a game Miller started since June 13th.

The Astros try to regain first place as they send Dallas Keuchel against the Rangers and Martin Perez (it ain’t just Perez). Keuchel comes into the game with a Karen Valentine ERA of 2.22. He allowed just 13 home runs in 206 2/3 innings. Perez pitched well in August, walking five and striking out 20 in 31 2/3 innings, but in September he walked seven and struck out seven in 11 innings.

Enjoy!

August 21, 2015

Games of the Day

Shelby Miller and Kyle Hendricks pitch in the Braves matinee at the Cubs. Miller has not won a game since May 17th, despite a 3.03 ERA in 16 starts since. He allowed just five home runs in 98 innings in that stretch. Hendricks is having a rough time since the All-Star break with a 5.29 ERA, despite good three-true outcome numbers.

Minnesota finds themselves chasing a number of wild card teams, including the Orioles as Tommy Milone takes on Wei-Yin Chen. Milone pitched better on the road this season with a higher strike out rate and fewer hits allowed. Chen allowed 47 home runs the last two seasons, tied for third most in the majors.

The Blue Jays and Angels fight for wild card slots and ranking as David Price faces Hector Santiago. Price walked five and struck out 24 in 22 1/3 innings since joining the Blue Jays. Santiago is just 7-6 despite a 2.86 ERA. He averages just six innings a start, giving plenty of time for bad things to happen after he leaves the game.

Enjoy!

July 19, 2015

Games of the Day

It’s hard to believe there will be multiple games of the day when Zack Greinke is facing Max Scherzer as the Dodgers and Nationals play the rubber game of their series. It turns out plenty of good match-ups are on the schedule for Sunday.

Despite his performance in the All-Star game, Zack Greinke’s consecutive scoreless innings streak remains intact. He allowed just 16 hits and three walks in 35 2/3 innings. Scherzer has not walked a batter in July, but his ERA for the month is 3.74 thanks to three home runs allowed.

Yovani Gallardo and Dallas Keuchel square off in the battle of Texas in Houston. Gallardo is 7-8 despite a 2.62 ERA. He needs to be great to win. In June, he managed a 2-0 record in five starts thanks to an 0.54 ERA. In July, he’s 0-2 in three starts with a relatively astronomical ERA of 2.08. Keuchel owns a 1.80 ERA in two starts against Texas, but no decisions.

Finally, the Cubs and Braves battle for a wild card slot as Jake Arrieta takes on Shelby Miller. Arrieta is 6-1 on the road with a 2.39 ERA, allowing just three home runs in 60 1/3 innings. Miller allows a .194 BA with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy!

July 5, 2015

Games of the Day

Danny Salazar leads the Indians against the Pirates and Gerrit Cole as the teams play the rubber game of their series. Salazar’s strength is a career K/BB of close to 4.0, but he pays for his power and control with a high home run rate. The Pirates are near the bottom of the National League in home runs hit, however. Cole, so far in his career, is someone who combines pitching well with winning. He is 32-15 in 57 career starts. This season, with a 2.20 ERA and great three-true outcome numbers, he’s 11-3.

It’s a Cole day in baseball as Cole Hamels face the Braves and Shelby Miller. You never know when Hamels might make his last start for the Phillies. Thanks to his high strikeout rate, opponents are hitting just .219 against him, and that should be attractive to other teams. Miller, owns the same 2.20 ERA as Gerrit Cole, but is just 5-4 in wins and losses.

The Mariners and Athletics trot out two more good pitchers as rookie Mike Montgomery takes on second year rookie Chris Bassitt, Montgomery doesn’t strike out many batters, but he allowed just one home run and 12 walks in 44 1/3 innings. Bassitt hounds hitters with a 93 MPH fastball and an 81 MPH change up.

Finally, it an all De La Rosa game as Jorge De La Rosa and the Rockies face Rubby De La Rosa and the Diamondbacks. The two own near identical ERAs, Jorge at 4.59, Rubby at 4.60. Jorge walks too many, while Rubby gives up too many home runs. This is the second time the De La Rosa’s met in a game. Their last meeting was a bit over a week ago when both pitched well but neither received the decision.

Enjoy!

June 30, 2015

Games of the Day

Gerrit Cole takes on Justin Verlander, the rising star of the Pirates against the fading star of the Tigers. With 11 wins this season, Cole matched his 2014 win total in seven fewer starts. He’s 32-15 during his career, and has become the ace of a good Pirates staff. Verlander continues to work his way back from injury. The most telling stat for him is just four strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings this season. This from the pitcher who saved his best stuff for the late innings.

Jordan Zimmermann leads the Nationals into Atlanta to face Shelby Miller. Zimmermann saw his strikeout rate fall off this season, but he’s also giving up home runs at a lower rate. Miller is one of three NL ERA leaders with an ERA under 2.00. He allowed just four home runs in 97 1/3 innings.

The best match-up of the day takes place in St. Louis where Chris Sale of the White Sox battles Lance Lynn. Sale struck out at least ten batters in seven straight games and eight of his last nine. In that nine game stretch he struck out 103 while walking just 11. Lynn may be the unluckiest pitcher in the majors this season. He owns a 5-4 record despite a 2.84 ERA and the Cardinals owning the highest winning percentage in the majors. He allowed six earned runs in his four no decisions.

Enjoy!

June 24, 2015

Games of the Day

The Blue Jays and Rays finish their series with Marco Estrada facing Nate Karns. Estrada won all four starts he made in June, the Blue Jays scoring 36 runs in those four games. Karns held batters to a .197 BA with runners in scoring position this season.

Cole Hamels starts for the Phillies against the Yankees, and it’s not clear how many more starts he’ll make for his first and only team. Hamels seems to be the most sought after player in trade talks. He’ll take on Ivan Nova, Nova coming off the disabled list due to Tommy John surgery. Just four of Hamels home runs came on the road this season. Nova posted a 4.02 ERA in 15 2/3 minor league innings during his rehabilitation.

Atlanta send Shelby Miller against Jordan Zimmermann and Washington. Miller isn’t striking out many batters, 65 in 90 1/3 innings, but only allowed 67 hits, good for a .205 opposition batting average. Zimmermann walked just 19 batters in 84 innings this season.

Enjoy!

June 13, 2015

Games of the Day

The Braves face the Mets Saturday afternoon with Shelby Miller battling Jacob deGrom. The trade for Miller landed the Braves an ace who allowed just four home runs in 78 1/3 innings, three of them solo shots. deGrom gives the Mets power and control, with 81 strikeouts and 16 walks in 78 innings.

Jeff Samardzija leads the White Sox against the Rays and Chris Archer. Samardzija saw his strikeout rate fall off this season, and for the first time since 2010 his hits allowed exceed his innings pitched. Archer tries to continue his Cy Young Award like season. He upped his strikeout rate, and holds opposing batters to a .196 BA, a .251 OBP, and a .272 slugging percentage.

Enjoy!

June 1, 2015

Players of the Month

May 2015 produced some very hot players. Jason Kipnis led the majors in OBP with a .511 mark, thanks to a .429 batting average. He knocked out 51 hits and scored 30 runs, all leading the majors. Prince Fielder went on a tear to hit .377 for the month and drive in 28 runs. Dee Gordon stayed hot with a .351 BA and 12 steals in 13 tries. That steal total led the majors. Even Francisco Cervelli posted great numbers in his 21 games played.

Bryce Harper, however, blew the pack away with an .884 slugging percentage. He tied for the MLB lead in RBI with 28 and scored 24 runs. His 13 homers led the majors by three, and he added four doubles and a triple as 18 of his 31 hits went for extra bases. He also tied Paul Goldschmidt and Adam LaRoche with 22 walks. Harper did everything well in May, and that earns him the Baseball Musings Offense Player of the Month Award for May 2015.

On the pitching side, it is tough to argue against Shelby Miller. He posted a 0.95 ERA for the month with two shutouts. There were only nine shutouts in the month, and Miller took away two. He allowed just 20 hits in 38 innings and flirted with a no hitter.

If you prefer great three-true outcomes, then Corey Kluber and Max Scherzer filter to the top of the list. The two posted nearly identical walk rates, rounding to 1.3 BB per nine innings. Kluber struck out more batters, while Scherzer allowed fewer home runs. Kluber performed his feats in the American League, where he needed to face a designated hitter. Of the two, Scherzer’s ERA was over a run lower than Kluber.

Miller wound up with a great walk rate and a much better home run rate than Scherzer. In the end, it’s tough to ignore a sub-1.00 ERA, and the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month Award goes to Shelby Miller!

Congratulations to Harper and Miller!

May 23, 2015

Scherzer in the Lead

Max Scherzer allowed one run in eight innings Friday night and moves into the lead in Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker points in the majors. With the 2-1 victory over Philadelphia, Sherzer blows by Shelby Miller, and extends his lead over Zack Greinke. Greinke allowed one run in 7 2/3 innings Friday, but did not get the decision as the Dodgers beat the Padres, also by a score of 2-1. That kind of pitching is what a team wants from an ace. On a night when the offense didn’t show up (or in the case of the Dodgers, a week), the ace needs to step up and keep the team in the game. Both did that Friday night.

Shelby Miller tries to take the lead back today.

May 18, 2015

Miller on Top

Shelby Miller caused Max Scherzer‘s time atop the NL Cy Young Tracker leader board to be short lived. Miller’s shutout of the Marlins on Sunday promoted him to the top spot in Tom Tango tracker points. Miller leads Scherzer by 0.4 points. Max leads in innings and strikeouts, but Miller allowed fewer earned runs and won one more game. A.J. Burnett comes in fourth after his stellar effort on Sunday.

In previous seasons, Miller tended to induce about the same number of fly balls and ground balls. This season, he’s not only inducing many more ground balls, batters are hitting few line drives. It’s a big reason the opposition is hitting just .156 against Miller.

May 17, 2015

Miller in the Ninth

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Shelby Miller is set to face Adeiny Hechavarria, Jhonatan Solano, and Justin Bour in the bottom of the ninth with a no-hitter on the line. Both Hechavarria and Bour own high BAs this season. The Braves lead the Marlins 6-0.

Update: Hechavarria grounds an 0-1 pitch to the first baseman for an unassisted putout. One down.

Update: Solano gets ahead 2-1. He works the count full, then flies out to centerfield. Two down.

Update: Bour hits the first pitch on the ground up the middle for a single. The pitch was up in the middle of the strike zone, and Bour got good wood on the ball.

Update: Dee Gordon follows with an infield hit to keep his hitting streak alive.

Update: Martin Prado pops out to end the game. Miller gets the shutout, his second in his last three starts.

May 17, 2015

Miller Time

Shelby Miller just finished the sixth inning of the Braves game at the Marlins, and Miller has a no-hitter intact. He walked a batter but induced a double play, so Miller faced just 18 batters. He struck out four so far, retiring the side in the sixth on three fly balls. His pitch count is low, so he should be able to go the distance. The Braves lead 6-0, so Miller should be able to go after hitters without worrying about losing the game.

Update: With two out in the seventh, Giancarlo Stanton drives a ball to deep left-center, where Todd Cunningham runs it down. Miller keeps the no-hitter intact.

Update: Miller gets two fly balls and a grounder to retire the Marlins in order in the eighth. He’ll face the 7-8-9 hitters in the ninth.

Update: It’s been 21 years since a Braves no-hitter. Kent Mercker threw one against the Dodgers on April 8, 1994.

May 11, 2015

Games of the Day

Marco Estrada and Ubaldo Jimenez get the evening started as Toronto visits Baltimore. Estrada gave up one run in 10 2/3 innings as a reliever, but allowed five runs in 4 2/3 innings in his only start of the season. Jimenez is off to a good start, with 23 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings. He’s yet to allow an earned run at home this season.

Atlanta send Shelby Miller against the Reds and Mike Leake. So far, Miller proved to be good compensation for Jason Heyward. He’s holding opponents to an impressive .178/.255/.296 slash line. Leake might be even more impressive, with a .182/.229/.318 slash line. This might be a good game to watch for a potential no-hitter.

Finally, we’ll see an adjust solved Stephen Strasburg‘s shoulder issue as the Nationals visit the Diamondbacks and Josh Collmenter. Strasburg has great three-true outcome numbers, but allowed 42 hits in 32 1/3 innings. Collmenter is very stingy with his walks. He allowed 44 hits in 39 2/3 innings but walked just three.

Enjoy!

May 5, 2015

Games of the Day

Chad Billingsley returns to the majors with the Phillies as they face Shelby Miller and the Braves. Billingsley missed all of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery. In 19 minor league innings this season he struck out 16 while walking six, but allowed three home runs. Miller is a bright spot for the Braves in 2015. He owns a 2.17 ERA, and he’s holding the opposition to a .167 BA with runners in scoring position.

Robin Ventura’s job might be on the line in Chicago as Detroit comes to town. Shane Greene takes on Jeff Samardzija. After allowing two runs in his first 23 innings, Greene gave up 15 runs in his last 8 1/3 innings. Samardzija only walked six batters in his 32 innings of work, but he allowed so many hits that the opposition owns a .290 BA and a .329 OBP.

Enjoy!

November 17, 2014

Transaction Monday

Two major deals were completed today, and thanks to BleacherNation for the pointers.

First, Russell Martin returns to the AL East.

Source: Martin deal with #BlueJays is five years, $82M.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 17, 2014

Sixteen million dollars a year is pretty good for a catcher whose career offensive strength is drawing walks. If someone has a career year at 31, I don’t think he’s likely to repeat, especially if he is a catcher. That said, the Blue Jays probably want him for his defense more than his offense, and given how good Martin is behind the plate, it’s not a bad deal. Toronto overpaid, but not by much.

The Cardinals and Braves traded two young but veteran players:

St. Louis Cardinals trade RHP Shelby Miller & RHP Tyrell Jenkins to the Braves for OF Jason Heyward & RHP Jordan Walden.

— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) November 17, 2014

Jason Heyward will play 2015 as a 25 year old, so the Cardinals get him just as he enters his prime. He can be a free agent at the end of 2015, so I suspect the Cardinals will try to sign him to a longer term deal. Shelby Miller is a year younger, and is coming off a down year. He’s young enough that it may just be the league adjusting to him, and he needs to adjust back. Walden is a good reliever, while Tyrell Jenkins has shown a degradation in his K rate as he moves up the minor league system. It looks to me like the Braves didn’t want to sign Heyward long term, so they got something for him while they could. Off-hand, the Cardinals appear to have gotten the better of the deal.

October 15, 2014

Playoffs Today

The Orioles play for their post-season life as they send Miguel Gonzalez against Jason Vargas and the Royals in Kansas City. The Royals lead the ALCS three games to none, and a victory today sends Kansas City to the World Series with home field advantage.

Gonzalez pitched solidly for the Orioles during his three seasons in the majors, his walk rate begin his strong suit. His walk rate of 2.9 batters per nine innings is good, but not great. His strikeout rate is a bit low and his home run rate is a bit high. In other words, he needs a good defense behind him to do well. (Note that in his regular season career, his home run rate is elevated by playing his home games in Camden Yards.)

Vargas is a very similar pitcher, but with a better walk rate. He’s been knocked around in Kansas City this season where his ERA was 4.53 versus 2.73 on the road. The main difference is that he may have gone overboard in trying not to walk batters at home. He issued just ten walks in 101 1/3 home innings, 31 walks in 85 2/3 road innings. However, he allowed 120 hits at home, 77 hits on the road.

The late game pits Shelby Miller against Ryan Vogelsong in what the Giants hope is their penultimate game of the NLCS. Miller did not find his groove until September, during which he posted a 1.48 ERA in five starts. He did not go deep in games, pitching just 30 1/3 innings, but allowed just two homers and five walks while striking out 26. Fifteen of his 22 home runs allowed this season came on the road.

Of course, AT&T Park is not one that produces great power. Vogelsong allowed 18 home runs in 2014, only two of the at home. He pitched well in some regards against St. Louis in two starts, allowing one home run and four walks in 13 1/3 innings while striking out 13. Still, he managed to allow six runs. This game may well be decided by the bullpens.

Enjoy!

October 7, 2014

K-5

Shelby Miller and Clayton Kershaw each retire the side in order in the first. Miller strikes out the first two batters, and Kershaw the first three as the pitchers are taking full advantage of the shadows. The Dodgers and Cardinals are scoreless after one.

October 7, 2014

Playoffs Today

The Dodgers and Cardinals play the early game today as Clayton Kershaw returns to the mound to face Shelby Miller. Kershaw returns to the mound on short rest after throwing 110 pitches and giving up eight runs in game one of the NLDS. Last season, he pitched on short rest against Atlanta and pitched well. While his last two starts against the Cardinals have been disasters, he has pitched well against St. Louis at times in the post season. The key for Don Mattingly is to get Kershaw out of the game before he fatigues. Mattingly may think a tired Kershaw is better than his bullpen, but that’s probably not the case. If the game is on the line, it’s time to bring in Kenley Jansen early. He may need to pull a Goose Gossage and throw three innings.

Shelby Miller lost some of his ability to strike out batters in 2014 compared to 2013. Combined with a higher walk rate, his ERA rose about 0.7 runs. In both seasons, however, Miller’s ERA was well below his FIP and xFIP, indicating he is helped by his defense. That may be the reason, despite the drop in strikeouts, he allowed about the same batting average as last year.

Later, the Nationals try to survive to game five as Gio Gonzalez takes on Ryan Vogelsong and the Giants. Gonzalez had problems with control for most of the season, walking 3.7 batters per nine innings through the middle of August, and posting a 4.06 ERA. Since then, he walked batters at a 1.8 per 9 IP clip, with a 2.36 ERA over those seven games.

Vogelsong had a streaky season. In May and August he posted ERAs well under 3.00 and finished with three wins and one loss in each of those months. In April and September he posted ERAs well over 5.00 and didn’t win a game. Overall, he had two great months and four poor ones. In his two starts against Washington this season he allowed nine runs in 11 1/3 innings, walking six and striking out nine.

Enjoy!

September 18, 2014

Games of the Day

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Oakland will break the tie for the two wild card slots in the American League either way this afternoon as they host Texas and Kansas City is idle. Nick Martinez faces Sonny Gray. The Rangers are doing a good job of playing spoiler, having swept three from Atlanta and taken three more from Oakland for six wins in a row. They started the month 1-9. Rookie Martinez pitches poorly in all aspects of the three-true outcomes, including a strikeout to walk ratio close to one. Gray handled the Rangers well this year with a 1.82 ERA in four starts, and just one home run allowed in 29 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers can gain or lose 1/2 game on the Giants as they send Zack Greinke against the Cubs and Tsuyoshi Wada. Greinke comes into the game 30-12 in two seasons with the Dodgers with a 2.64 ERA (2.63 last season, 2.64 this year in slightly more innings). Zack cut his walk rate this season, but saw his home runs allowed go up a bit.

The Brewers try to hang on for a playoff slot as they play their final regular season game against the Cardinals with Kyle Lohse battling Shelby Miller. Lohse appears to have run out of gas, with a 6.88 ERA since August 1. Miller is at about the same number of innings pitched as 2013, but he has struck out 54 fewer batters. Despite the drop in Ks, he allowed two fewer hits than in 2013.

Finally, Felix Hernandez takes on Jered Weaver in the Angels first game as AL West champs. Hernandez is 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA in three starts against LAnaheim this season. Weaver leads the AL in wins and is 9-4 at home with a 2.60 ERA, versus 8-4 with a 4.60 ERA on the road.

Enjoy!

September 3, 2014

Games of the Day

The Braves will see if they can get more than a handful of hits off a Phillies pitcher as David Buchanan faces Ervin Santana in an early start in Atlanta. Buchanan allows a .267 BA, but keeps his walks low so his OBP allowed is decent. Santana is 9-2 at home with a 3.34 ERA.

The Pirates are in danger of falling out of the NL Central race as the Cardinals go for a sweep at home. Edinson Volquez faces Shelby Miller. Overall, Volquez pitched well against the Cardinals this season, with a .233/.306/.349 slash line. His ERA against them is high, however, as they hit .273/.412/.545 with men in scoring position. Miller saw a huge fall-off in his three-true outcome rates, especially his walk and K rates. Despite lower strikeout numbers, he isn’t allowing that many hits, however.

Felix Hernandez leads Jon Lester by about 12 Cy Young Tracker points as the two aces meet in Oakland. The Mariners star is two inning shy of reaching 200 IP for the seventh straight season. Lester’s averages are almost identical to his Boston numbers, giving him a 2.66 ERA with Oakland after posting a 2.52 ERA with the Red Sox.

I suspect Justin Verlander will be the butt of jokes in Cleveland today as the Tigers face Danny Salazar after a huge comeback win Tuesday night.

Enjoy!

June 29, 2014

Games of the Day

The White try to win their third game in a row against the Blue Jays as they send Jose Quintana against Cy Young contender Mark Buehrle. Quintanan pitched better than his 4-7 record, allowing just 29 walks and six homers in 97 2/3 innings. Buehrle is a similar pitcher, with 28 walks and seven home runs allowed in 107 1/3 innings. A big difference is that Buehrle allowed a .148 BA with runners in scoring position, Quintana .349.

Two west coast games feature great pitchers starting with the Indians sending T.J. House against the Mariners and Felix Hernandez. House tends to give up home runs, so pitching a game in Seattle might help that aspect of his game. Hernandez allowed just four home runs and 19 walks in 120 1/3 innings, helping him to a 2.24 ERA.

Clayton Kershaw also brings a 2.24 ERA into his game as the Dodgers host the Cardinals and Shelby Miller. Miller saw his control vanish this season as he walked 46 in 93 2/3 innings after walking just 61 in 187 innings over his first two seasons. Kershaw comes into the game with 21 consecutive scoreless innings, and has allowed just four runs in June, walking two and striking out 48.

Enjoy!

June 14, 2014

Games of the Day

Mat Latos makes his 2014 debut as the Reds continue their series with the first place Brewers. Yovani Gallardo stands in opposition. Latos pitched outstanding ball for the Reds in his first two seasons with the team, averaging 210 innings, 61 walks, and 186 strikeouts in two consistent seasons. Gallardo slumped since the start of May, but recovered with seven shutout innings in his last start.

Garrett Richards and Gavin Floyd battle in Atlanta as the Angels continue their inter-league series. Richards keeps the ball in the park, with just two home runs allowed in 81 2/3 innings this season, and 25 HR in 311 2/3 innings for his career. Floyd cut his walk and strikeout rates in half from last season, helping him to a 2.57 ERA.

The Nationals try to score a run against the Cardinals as Stephen Strasburg takes on Shelby Miller. Strasburg pitched much better against lefties than righties this season. He holds eft-handed batters to a .228/.284/.282 slash line, righties .280/.318/.418. Miller allowed a .185 BA with runners in scoring position so far this season.

Impressively, Fox managed to pick all three games to carry today, so you’ll get to see one of them. Enjoy!