Tag Archives: Nick Gonzales

September 11, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Those are really low projected hit averages today, usually someone is over .300.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.284, 0.710 — Luis Arraez batting vs. McCade Brown.
  • 0.268, 0.687 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Bradley Lord.
  • 0.281, 0.682 — Nick Gonzales batting at Cade Povich.
  • 0.269, 0.678 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Stephen Kolek.
  • 0.237, 0.676 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Gavin Williams.
  • 0.270, 0.674 — Jakob Marsee batting vs. Bradley Lord.
  • 0.269, 0.673 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. McCade Brown.
  • 0.266, 0.672 — Steven Kwan batting vs. Stephen Kolek.
  • 0.263, 0.665 — Hunter Goodman batting at Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.240, 0.665 — Jeremy Pena batting at Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.236, 0.665 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting vs. Cristian Javier.

Arraez tops both lists, but with a very low probability. Gonzales gets the nod as the consensus double down pick. Note that the Pirates Orioles game starts at 1 PM EDT, so if you are going with Gonzales, get your pick in early.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 25, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Frelick, with a low walk rate and a low strikeout rate, puts the ball in play with a .331 BABIP. Rodriguez owns a solid K rate and a high walk rate, but batters this season hold a .344 BABIP against him. The Brewers batters rank near the bottom of the league in Ks, so it’s not surprising three rise to the top of this list.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.272, 0.705 — Miguel Andujar batting at Emmet Sheehan.
  • 0.276, 0.704 — Luis Arraez batting at Bryce Miller.
  • 0.277, 0.698 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Spencer Strider.
  • 0.297, 0.690 — Sal Frelick batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.245, 0.689 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Tarik Skubal.
  • 0.277, 0.687 — Chandler Simpson batting at Tanner Bibee.
  • 0.249, 0.686 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Shane Smith.
  • 0.279, 0.684 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Tomoyoki Sugano.
  • 0.283, 0.684 — Nick Gonzales batting at Michael McGreevy.
  • 0.267, 0.683 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Bradley Lord.
  • 0.248, 0.683 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Joe Ryan.

I included Andujar in the first list so you could see where he ranks in both. The two systems disagree a bit today, and it’s also a very low probability day. Gonzales, Edwards, and Arraez all tie for the consensus double down choice. It’s probably not a good day to double down if you can avoid it.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 23, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It’s a Pirates heavy day once again as they face a poor Rockies starter. Freeland is much tougher to hit away from Coors Field, however.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.287, 0.721 — Miguel Andujar batting at Nabil Crismatt.
  • 0.301, 0.718 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Chris Paddack.
  • 0.307, 0.717 — Bo Bichette batting at Janson Junk.
  • 0.300, 0.715 — Trea Turner batting vs. Mitchell Parker.
  • 0.320, 0.710 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.289, 0.708 — Jacob Wilson batting at George Kirby.
  • 0.280, 0.705 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Jose Berrios.
  • 0.293, 0.702 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Janson Junk.
  • 0.291, 0.697 — Ernie Clement batting at Janson Junk.
  • 0.308, 0.696 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting vs. Kyle Freeland.

Andujar came up as a good pick all season long, and collected hits in 72.4% of his games. His probability today is right in line with that, on a low probability day. Crismatt pitched little in his last three seasons, so his numbers are highly regressed to the league mean of .220, so there is little extra information there.

Bichette, Gonzales, and Witt all tie for the consensus top pick. Witt owns an eleven game hit streak, second longest in the majors right now. The longest streak belongs to Tyler Soderstrom of the Athletics, twenty games (including two pushes). The NN puts his probability of continuing the streak at .637. For his career, he is a low BABIP, high strikeout batter. It’s a tough choice today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 22, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It’s pick your favorite Pirates batter as the Rockies visit Pittsburgh. Gonzales is not a bad pick. He puts the ball in play a decent amount with a high BABIP.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

The NN is not as Pirate heavy, but still puts Gonzales and Kiner-Falefa at the top.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 24, 2025

Best Batter Today

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Call Raleigh of the Mariners remained at the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He continued his assault on the AL single season home run record with a two for five night, hitting his 32nd home runs of the season in the 77th game of the year. That puts him on a pace for 67 homers on the season. The Mariners topped the Twins 11-2.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees, the current AL single season home run king, also homered, his 28th of the season, and drew a walk in a 6-1 Reds win. Judge remained in second place. Kyle Tucker of the Cubs went 0 for 4 in an 8-2 Cardinals win for fourth place. Riley Greene of the Tigers and Jose Ramirez of the Guardians did not play due to the teams taking a day off. They sit in third and fifth place respectively.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Nick Gonzales of the Pirates, an 81. He posted a perfect night at the plate, five for five with two doubles and two RBI in a 5-4 win over the Brewers. He took over second base for the Pirates this June and hit very well so far, .320/.350/.493 at the position. That stand way above his MLB averages, but much more in line with the minor league numbers. The Pirates hope he is a late bloomer.