Tag Archives: Kyle Gibson

June 26, 2024

Games of the Day

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The matchup of Reynaldo Lopez and Kyle Gibson happens today due to yesterday’s postponement in St. Louis.

The Nationals at Padres should be an interesting game due to the bad blood around Jurickson Profar:

In a back-and-forth game that began with apparent beef over the way Profar celebrated a walk-off the night before, the Padres’ left fielder provided the last laugh on Tuesday, a grand slam to punctuate a 9-7 win over the Washington Nationals.

MSN.com

The Nationals were not subtle about the way they retaliated against Profar, and it came back to bite them. The way to punish someone for bad sportsmanship is to come back and get them out or win the game. The Nationals did neither.

Gavin Stone of the Dodgers takes on Erick Fedde of the White Sox in what looks like the best pitching match-up of the day. Stone owns a 3.04 ERA on a good team with an 8-2 record. Fedde owns a 3.05 ERA on a bad team and is just 5-2.

Finally, Hayden Wesneski of the Cubs faces Hayden Birdsong, making his MLB debut for the Giants. This will be the first game ever where the starters have the first name ‘Hayden’. Wesneski is a spot starter, not an opener. He goes fairly deep when he fills out the rotation. Birdsong makes it to the majors at seasonal age 22 after posting a 3.02 ERA in the minors in 169 2/3 innings. He blows away batters.

Enjoy!

June 25, 2024

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The Phillies and Tigers battle in Detroit where Ranger Suarez takes on Tarik Skubal. Suarez’s 1.75 ERA leads the NL by nearly a run. He also stands in the top five in HR per 9 IP and BB per 9 IP. Skubal’s 105 strikeouts rank fifth in the AL.

Mitch Keller faces Hunter Greene as the Pirates continue their series with the Reds. Keller has not fared well in Cincinnati during his career, 1-2 with an 8.10 ERA in six starts. He allowed six home runs and 21 walks in 26 2/3 innings. Greene improved his ERA this season, cutting down on his home run rate. He added a splitter, which may have increased his ground ball rate.

The Cardinals try to gain another game on the Braves in the race for the top wild card slot. Atlanta sends Reynaldo Lopez to the mound in St. Louis against Kyle Gibson. Lopez owns a 1.57 ERA in 2024, all as a starter. He allowed just four home runs in 74 1/3 innings. Gibson’s 3.44 ERA would be the lowest season mark of his career. His three-true outcomes are right in line with his career averages, but he is preventing hits, as the opposition owns a .226 BA, well below his .265 career mark.

Enjoy!

May 17, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Twins visit the Guardians, Minnesota in third place in the AL Central, 2 1/2 games behind Cleveland. Simeon Woods Richardson takes on Triston McKenzie. Woods Richardson, getting a chance to stick in the Twins rotation, showed great control this year. He struck out 23 and walked just six in 25 innings. McKenzie’s walk rate is up over two walks per nine innings compared to his career average at 5.31 BB per 9 IP. He balances that with a low BABIP of .241.

The Red Sox travel to St. Louis to face the Cardinals with Brayan Bello and Kyle Gibson on the mound. Bello allowed five home runs in 31 2/3 innings, but otherwise does a good job of limiting hits. Gibson owns a similar season, with 20 walks in 49 innings but just 39 hits allowed.

Enjoy!

April 7, 2024

Games of the Day

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Can the Marlins finally win a game? They send Max Meyer against the Cardinals and Kyle Gibson. Meyer is back in the majors after missing a season due to Tommy John surgery. His three true outcomes in the minors were outstanding. He also tends to produce a low opposition BABIP, and that saved him from allowing a lot of runs in his first start. The veteran Gibson allows hitters to put the bat on the ball. That’s not a bad strategy against the Marlins this year, who own a .252 BABIP.

The Astros and Rangers square off in the Sunday night game with Ronel Blanco facing Dane Dunning. Blanco gets a chance to match the feat of Johnny Vander Meer, throwing two no-hitters in a row.* Blanco produced a high walk rate in 2023, but a low BABIP of .280. Since the pandemic, he showed reliably low opposition BABIPs in the minors. Dunning, in a high HR era, has been good at preventing long balls in his career. He did allow two dingers in his first start, however.

*My dad traveled to Boston to see if Vander Meer could throw three in a row. He still saw a pretty good pitching performance.

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May 19, 2023

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The Blue Jays trail the Orioles by three games as the teams open a three-game series in Toronto. Kyle Gibson facing Yusei Kikuchi. Gibson gives up hits at a high rate due to a low K rate. That is some compensated by a low walk rate. Kikuchi stands undefeated in eight starts at 5-0. He’s given up eleven home runs in 41 2/3 innings, but the Blue Jays scored at least five runs in seven of his eight starts.

It’s the battle of the Bryces in Atlanta as Bryce Miller of the Mariners takes on Bryce Elder of the Braves. Miller makes his fourth MLB start, and only allowed one walk and no home runs in his first nineteen innings. Elder owns a 1.94 ERA in 46 1/3 innings this season. He is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA on the road. With a 1.96 ERA at home, he has yet to record a decision, however.

Enjoy!

May 8, 2023

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The second place Orioles get a chance to gain on the first place Rays as the teams meet in Baltimore. Shane McClanahan takes on Kyle Gibson. McClanahan leads one of the four Cy Young predictor stats, Bill James Cy Young points. Only one of the four home runs he allowed came in road games. Gibson owns a 4-1 record despite a 4.61 ERA. The Orioles scored at least five runs in his first six starts, getting shut out in his seventh appearance.

The Dodgers visit the Brewers with Tony Gonsolin facing Freddy Peralta. I find Gonsolin fascinating. He is a great pitcher who doesn’t pitch much. He turns 29 on Sunday, owns a 26-6 career record with a 2.53 ERA. He only passed 60 innings once, however, last season when he reached 130 1/3. On top of that, his three-true outcomes are good, but not great, suggesting his very low hit level has a lot to do with the Dodgers defense. His career FIP is a run higher than his ERA, and his xFIP stands at 4.14! His career .233 BABIP seems impossibly low.

Peralta pitched consistently solid since the start of the 2020 season. He is willing to walk batters to avoid hits and power.

Houston visits Anaheim with Hunter Brown battling Patrick Sandoval. Brown owns a 1.96 ERA in 55 MLB innings, and has yet to allow a home run. Sandoval owns a 2.91 ERA since the start of 2022, giving up just 10 home runs in 179 1/3 innings, 0.5 per nine innings.

Enjoy!

May 13, 2022

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Corbin Burnes of the Brewers takes on Pablo Lopez of the Marlins in an early evening game in Miami. Both pitchers are high on the leaderboard of Tom Tango Enhanced Cy Young Points. Burnes pitched extremely well so far, with a 1.86 ERA in six starts. His record stands at just 1-2, however, as the Brewers score two runs or fewer three times in his starts. Lopez allowed just one home run and eight walks in 36 innings while fanning 35 for a 1.00 ERA.

Toronto sends Kevin Gausman against the Rays and Drew Rasmussen. Gausman saw the Rays a lot when he pitched for the Orioles, going 7-6 with a 4.00 ERA in 17 appearances. He three-true outcomes against Tampa Bay were all good. They Rays should see a much tougher pitcher this time. Rasmussen’s 2.89 ERA comes from finding his control, with just seven walk in 28 innings.

Finally, the Phillies send Kyle Gibson against the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw. In his last two starts, Gibson held the Mets to three runs in 10 1/3 innings despite walking five and striking out just six. Kershaw is now the Dodgers all-time leader in strikeouts. He joins a list of legendary names. Of that top group, Kershaw owns the lowest ERA, the lowest walk rate, and the highest K rate.

Enjoy!

Update: Kershaw will not make the start:

Los Angeles announced that it had placed Kershaw on the injured list for inflammation in his sacroiliac joint (SI joint). According to SI-Bone, the SI joint is located between the spine and the pelvis and transfers weight from the upper body to the legs.

SportingNews.com

Problems there would certainly make it tough to pitch.

May 8, 2022

Games of the Day

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For the third day in a row, the Mets try to send Max Scherzer against Kyle Gibson of the Phillies. This time for sure.

Toronto sends Alek Manoah against Cleveland and Konnor Pilkington. Manoah is following up his fine rookie year with an even better sophomore season. He allowed just 18 hits and five runs in 31 innings. Pilkington has just three relief appearances under his MLB belt, with two hits allowed, no runs, one walk, and five K.

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May 7, 2022

Games of the Day

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The Dodgers and Cubs play a doubleheader. Game one features Clayton Kershaw taking on Drew Smyly. Kershaw returned to his devastating form this season, 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA in four starts. He struck out 30 in 23 innings while walking just two. Smyly sports a 2.79 ERA, thanks to just three walks in 19 1/3 innings. That is balanced by four home runs allowed.

The Mets try to put the hammer down on the Phillies as Max Scherzer takes the mound against Kyle Gibson. The Philadelphia offense has to face the current ace of the staff after their pitchers suffered a breakdown of epic proportions in the ninth inning Thursday night. Scherzer owns the town, with a 9-1 record in Philadelphia in thirteen starts, with a 2.20 ERA. Gibson walked twelve in 27 2/3 innings, but allowed just 18 hits to limit the damage.

The Blue Jays send Kevin Gausman against the Guardians and Shane Bieber. Gausman owned a career 4.30 ERA through 2019. He joined the Giants in 2020 and turned his career around, with a 2.92 ERA since, upping his strikeouts and reducing his home runs allowed. With twenty two hits allowed and six walks in 29 1/3 innings, Bieber allows less than a base runner per inning.

Finally, the Brewers send Corbin Burnes against the Braves and Max Fried. Burnes owns the lowest ERA in the majors since the start of the 2020 season, minimum 200 innings pitched. He allows just 0.45 HR per 9 IP in that time. Fried is fifth on the list, allowing just 0.68 HR per 9 IP. Note that a number of the pitchers in this post are in the top ten. It might not be a very good day for offense.

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May 6, 2022

Games of the Day

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The Dodgers visit the Cubs for the Friday afternoon game with Tyler Anderson taking on Drew Smyly. Anderson serves as the swing man, with two starts and two relief appearances this season. He pitched well in both roles, with a win in each and an ERA below 3.00 in each. Smyly sports a 2.79 ERA, thanks to just three walks in 19 1/3 innings. That is balanced by four home runs allowed.

The Mets try to put the hammer down on the Phillies as Max Scherzer takes the mound against Kyle Gibson. The Philadelphia offense has to face the current ace of the staff after their pitchers suffered a breakdown of epic proportions in the ninth inning Thursday night. Scherzer owns the town, with a 9-1 record in Philadelphia in thirteen starts, with a 2.20 ERA. Gibson walked twelve in 27 2/3 innings, but allowed just 18 hits to limit the damage.

The Blue Jays send Kevin Gausman against the Guardians and Shane Bieber. Gausman owned a career 4.30 ERA through 2019. He joined the Giants in 2020 and turned his career around, with a 2.92 ERA since, upping his strikeouts and reducing his home runs allowed. With twenty two hits allowed and six walks in 29 1/3 innings, Bieber allows less than a base runner per inning.

Finally, the surprising Rockies face the Diamondbacks with Chad Kuhl taking on Merrill Kelly. Opponents have a tough to maintain .177 BABIP against Kuhl this season, as the Rockies appear to be vacuuming up the ground balls he induces. After giving up 21 home runs in 158 innings in 2021, Kelly has not allowed a home run in 28 1/3 innings this year.

Enjoy!

April 14, 2022

Games of the Day

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Philadelphia faces division rival Miami as Kyle Gibson battles Sandy Alcantara. Gibson, in his tenth season, got off to a strong start as held the Athletics to two hits in seven innings, striking out ten. He improves his K rate in the second half of this career, going from 6.2 K per 9 IP through 2017 to 8.3 K per 9 since then. Alcantara has been consistently good since his first full season in 2019, with batters hitting .231/.301/.378 against him.

The Reds and Dodgers play the late game, with Luis Cessa taking on Walker Buehler. Cessa makes his first start of the season and his first since 2018 with the Yankees. He gives up few hits despite giving batters a chance to put the ball in play against him. Buehler owns the best winning percentage in the majors since the start of the 2018 season for pitchers with a minimum of 60 starts.

Enjoy!

September 30, 2021

Games of the Day

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The Yankees and Blue Jays play the rubber game of their penultimate series with alliterative match-up between Corey Kluber and Robbie Ray. In five starts since returning from an injury, Kluber made just one good one. He holds a 5.73 ERA with 25 K in 22, but 26 hits. The strikeouts are not stopping the hits. Ray is at the top of the AL in Tom Tango Cy Young points, meaning the writers are likely to vote him the award. Pulling the team one game closer to a wild card would certainly help.

Houston’s magic number remains at one as they face Rays in Texas. It’s the Creeque Alley* game as Collin McHugh takes on Lance McCullers Jr. McHugh represents the pinnacle of an opener. He pitched eleven innings in six starts, allowing no runs on five hits and one walk while striking out 12. McCullers stands 12-5 with a St. Patrick’s Day ERA. He allowed just 12 home runs in 156 1/3 innings. He owns the best home run rate in the AL, but needs 5 2/3 innings to reach the qualifying mark.

*I once used this as a title for an ESPN graphic involving Tony Gwynn and Mark McGwire.

The Phillies face the finish as they take on the Braves for the final time in 2021, Atlanta’s magic number to clinch the division at one. Kyle Gibson takes on Ian Anderson*. Gibson owned a 2.87 ERA when the Phillies acquired him from Texas, but since the trade his ERA stands at 4.87. Anderson made four starts against the Phillies with no decisions, but a 3.09 ERA. He walked just seven batters in 23 1/3 innings.

*Anderson occasionally plays a Gibson guitar.

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August 6, 2021

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The Mets visit the Phillies with New York’s division lead down to 1/2 game. Marcus Stroman faces Kyle Gibson. Stroman makes his fifth start of the season against the Phillies. He stands 2-2 despite a 1.35 ERA. Part of that comes from four unearned runs allowed. Gibson won his first start since coming over from Texas. He walks a ton of batters, but gives up few hits, helping him to a 2.86 ERA overall this season.

The Red Sox make their way to Toronto as Nathan Eovaldi battles Alek Manoah. Toronto tries to gain on both the wild card leaders and an AL East rival. Eovaldi keeps his walks and home runs allowed low, but gives up quite a few hits for a pitcher with a high strikeout rate. Manoah is off to a great start to his career with a 2.47 ERA in 47 1/3 innings. He struck out 56 and walked just 16, but is susceptible to the home run.

A battle of first place teams takes place in Milwaukee where the Giants send Logan Webb against Corbin Burnes. Webb is on a roll since the start of July, with a 2.25 ERA in five starts. That only encompasses 24 innings, however. Burnes owns a tremendous K/BB, with 152 K in 106 innings and just 20 walks. He also allowed just 83 hits.

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June 26, 2021

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The Royals at the Rangers feature a battle of undefeated Kyles as Kyle Zimmer takes on Kyle Gibson. Zimmer makes his second appearance as an opener, after pitching two scoreless innings in his first start. Overall, he allowed just 17 hits in 29 innings for his 3-0 record. Gibson is the traditional starter, up to 83 innings for his 14 starts. He uses the Royals defense to limit hits, allowing just 63 so far this season.

The Phillies send Zach Eflin against the Mets and wonder pitcher Jacob deGrom. Eflin pitched terribly on the road this season allowing 10 of his 13 home runs away from Philadelphia. That helped him to a 6.26 road ERA. deGrom comes into the game with a 30 inning scoreless streak, and needs three innings to set a new Mets record. He needs to reach 41 innings to break into the top ten of longest streaks. Given that he only averages six innings a start, he needs to go two more games. Note that the last person to pull off a top ten streak, Zack Greinke, did it without pitching a shutout, either.

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June 15, 2021

Games of the Day

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In the battle of Texas, the Rangers send Kyle Gibson to the mound in Houston against Lance McCullers Jr. Gibson is a bright spot for the Rangers this season, 4-0 with a 2.13 ERA in twelve starts. In about the same number of innings as last year, he reduced his home runs from 12 to 5, lowering his ERA three runs. He is a low strikeout, low walk pitcher, and the Astros batters have struck out the least in the AL. The Rangers defense should be tested tonight. McCullers allowed just 34 hits in 51 2/3 innings, as the line drive percentage against him is a mere 16%.

The Phillies face the Dodgers with Zach Eflin taking on Julio Urias. Eflin pitched poorly on the road this season, with six of the nine home runs he allowed coming in away games. Urias owns a 4.58 ERA at home this year as he allows a .265 BA in Dodger stadium versus a .190 BA away.

Enjoy!

May 10, 2021

Game of the Day

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Stay up late for interleague action as the Rangers visit the Giants with Kyle Gibson facing Alex Wood. Both pitchers stand 3-0. Gibson comes into the game with a 2.40 ERA after seven starts and 41 1/3 innings. He allowed just two home runs after giving up twelve in 67 1/3 innings in 2020. Wood owns a 1.96 ERA in four starts and 23 innings. His problem last season came from hits. He allowed 17 hits in 12 2/3 innings. This season, he allowed just 13 so far.

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May 4, 2021

Games of the Day

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Two undefeated pitchers take the mound in Minnesota as the Rangers send Kyle Gibson against J.A. Happ. Gibson stands 3-0 in six starts with a 2.16 ERA. Opponents failed to homer against him so far this season in 33 1/3 innings. Only Nathan Eovaldi pitched more this year without allowing a home run. Happ stands 2-0 in four starts. The opposition makes contract against him as he walked seven and struck out 13 in 23 innings this season. All that contact led to just twelve hits, however.

The Mets try to score for Jacob deGrom as they visit the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo. It’s difficult to come up with a new superlative for deGrom. The thing that strikes me today is that his WHIP, 0.57, is almost as low as his ERA, 0.51. Oviedo looks for his first MLB win in his seventh start and eighth appearance. The seasonal age 23 pitcher upped his K game from his 2020 cup of coffee, setting down eleven by the strikeout in 9 2/3 innings. Overall, he struck out 27 batters in 34 1/3 MLB innings.

Enjoy!

August 6, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Twins visit Cleveland for a four-game series, trailing the Indians by nine games. Kyle Gibson takes on Trevor Bauer in game one. Gibson is very good at limiting hits, holding opponents to a .224 BA, but a high number of walks leads to a .301 OBP allowed. Bauer is on shy of his strikeout total from last season in 23 fewer innings, and needs just five more to reach the 200 K mark for the first time in his career.

The Astros continue their swing through the NL West as they head for San Francisco. Charlie Morton faces Dereck Rodriguez. Morton owns a 2.12 ERA in three starts against National League teams this season. Rodriguez comes off a July in which he posted a 1.86 ERA. He allowed just one home run in 29 inning last month.

Enjoy!

July 31, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Pirates are one of those teams that are not quite in the race but not quite out of the race in the NL Central as they host the Cubs. Pittsburgh is seven games behind Chicago in the NL Central and 3 1/2 games being the Diamondbacks for the 2nd NL Wild Card. Jon Lester takes on Jameson Taillon. Lester is 7-4 against the Pirates in 14 starts since joining the Cubs. He has allowed 11 home runs in 81 2/3 innings. Taillon faces the Cubs for the first time.

The Twins try to gain another game on the Indians as Cleveland sends Trevor Bauer against Kyle Gibson. Bauer struck out 192 batters this season in 147 1/3 innings after striking out 198 last season in 176 1/3 innings. Gibson owns a 5.21 ERA against the Indians for his career.

Finally, Wade Miley leads Milwaukee against the Dodgers and Walker Buehler. Miley owns a 2.01 ERA this season despite 13 walks and just 12 K in 22 1/3 innings. Buehler walked 14 in 62 innings. They should trade first names, as Walker would be more appropriate for Miley. At least they would not need to change their monograms. 🙂

July 26, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Twins fly into Fenway as Kyle Gibson battles Brian Johnson. The Twins won three in a row and gained on the Indians as 7 1/2 games separate the teams. That’s close enough to be in the race, but large enough to require a collapse by the Tribe. If the Red Sox play .500 ball the rest of the way, they win 100 games.

The Dodgers continue their swing against the NL East leaders as Rich Hill face Anibal Sanchez and the Braves. Hill pitched better on the road with season, with only four of his 11 home runs allowed coming away. Sanchez owns a 1.99 ERA at home, thanks to allowing just three of his nine home runs in Atlanta.

Finally, the Brewers send Wade Miley against the Giants and Dereck Rodriguez. Miley makes his fifth start of the season. He owns a 1.56 ERA, and has yet to allow a home run in 17 1/3 innings pitched. His walks and strikeouts are even at 11, however, which is not a good sign. The rookie Rodriguez isn’t overpowering, but makes up for a lower K rate with just 13 walks and three home runs allowed in 53 innings.

Enjoy!

June 21, 2018

Games of the Day

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Thursday gets off to a bang as James Paxton takes on Luis Severino as the Mariners and Yankees finish their series in the Bronx. It’s a match-up power and control pitchers as Paxton struck out 115 and walked 26 in 91 2/3 innings, while Severino struck out 118 and walked 25 in 99 innings. One reason for Paxton’s higher ERA is he allowed 10 home runs to Severino’s five.

The Red Sox finish their series in Minnesota as Rick Porcello faces Kyle Gibson. Porcello give up more hits on the road (46) than at home (40), but allowed fewer home runs (five home, three away). Gibson is 2-4 with eight no decisions despite a 3.27 ERA. Part of the problem is that he doesn’t stay in games, averaging less than six innings per start.

Finally, Carlos Martinez leads the Cardinals against Junior Guerra and the Brewers. Martinez handled the Brewers easily so far this season, allowing one run in 14 1/3 innings, covering two starts. Guerra is almost as good against the Cardinals, with one run allowed in 11 1/3 innings.

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June 3, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Cubs and Mets meet in New York where Jon Lester takes on Steven Matz. Lester allowed seven of his eight home runs on the road this season, and pitched just four more innings away. Matz allowed eight of his nine home runs at home, with one more inning pitched at Citi Field. This could be a slugfest in the making.

The winner of the Washington game at Atlanta finishes the four-game series in first place in the NL East. Jeremy Hellickson faces Anibal Sanchez. Both pitchers are enjoying a renaissance. Hellickson owns a 2.30 ERA, having greatly reduced his walk and home runs rates compared to the last two seasons. Sanchez still walks batters, but this season he’s keeping the ball in park.

The Indians try to hold off the Twins as Mike Clevinger battles Kyle Gibson. Cleveinger owns one of the best road ERAs in the majors, 1.61. He allowed just 15 hits in 28 innings away. Gibson is Mr. No Decision this season 1-3 despite a 3.57 ERA.

Finally, an early start to the ESPN game, 7:30 PM EST finds Rick Porcello and the Red Sox facing Charlie Morton and the Astros. Opponents hit Porcello with runners in scoring position this season, .313 BA, but Porcello doesn’t allow himself to get in the situation often. Just 64 of the 283 AB against him game with men in scoring position. Morton tries to remain undefeated as he goes for his eighth win of the season. He owns a 1.85 ERA at home where his has pitched 43 2/3 innings of his 67 2/3 innings for the season.

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May 12, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Royals take on the Indians as Jakob Junis faces Mike Clevinger. The Royals are 13-25, in fourth place in the AL Central, but only 5 1/2 games back what looks like a weak division. The Indians should be running away, but their bullpen doesn’t seem to be working as well now that Mickey Callaway left and Andrew Miller spent time on the disabled list. Junis allowed ten home runs in 45 1/3 innings, but with a .264 OBP allowed, eight of those were solo shots. Twelve of the 16 runs he allowed came on homers, and it seems like a good trade off. Cleveinger takes this to the next level, with a .274 OBP allowed and just two home runs by the opposition.

The Twins battle the Angels with Kyle Gibson against Nick Tropeano. Gibson figured out how to strike out batters this season. Through 2017, he struck out 6.2 batters per nine innings. This season, it’s up to 10.2 per nine innings! Tropeano’s low ERA comes from not allowing a run against the Royals and Orioles. He was hammered by the good offenses of Boston and Houston.

Enjoy!

April 11, 2018

Games of the Day

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The Astros finish their series at the Twins with Lance McCullers facing Kyle Gibson. McCullers blew batters away in his first two starts, striking out 17 in 10 1/3 innings. He still managed to allow 11 hits, however. Gibson struck out 9 in his first 10 1/3 innings, but allowed just seven hits. That helped him to an 0.87 ERA.

The Yankees and Red Sox play the second game of their series with Masahiro Tanaka battling David Price. Tanaka has yet to walk a batter in 12 1/3 innings, and with nine hits allowed, the opposition owns a .200 OBP against him. Price has yet to allow a run, giving up just seven hits in 14 innings. Both those games were against the Rays.

Finally, Steven Brault takes on Jon Lester as the Pirates try to make it two in a row against the Cubs. Brault walked or struck out 12 of the 33 batters he faced, with batters going 5 for 21 in the other at bats with no extra base hits. Lester has yet to allow a home run after giving up 26 in 2017. That was a single season high for the Cubs lefty.

Enjoy!

April 11, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.296 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.294 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.293 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Matt Moore.
0.290 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.287 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.287 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.285 — Lonnie Chisenhall batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.279 — Michael Brantley batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.278 — Eric Hosmer batting against German Marquez.
0.278 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Adam Wainwright.

Gibson posted BABIPs of .330 in 2016 and .328 in 2017. Altuve posted BABIPs of .347 and .370 those same years. Neither of them sees a lot of strikeouts. It should be a good match up. Altuve is 5 for 15 against Gibson with no strikeouts in his career.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.296, 0.737 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.294, 0.720 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.290, 0.712 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.275, 0.703 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.287, 0.703 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.293, 0.700 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Matt Moore.
0.278, 0.698 — Eric Hosmer batting against German Marquez.
0.271, 0.697 — Dee Gordon batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.287, 0.696 — Jose Ramirez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.278, 0.691 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Adam Wainwright.

Jose Ramirez’s slow start has not kept him off the top ten, especially with someone as hittable as Jordan Zimmmermann on the mound. The two systems agree that Altuve and Blackmon are the top two picks.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

April 5, 2018

Games of the Day

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It’s a big home opening day, starting with the Mets visiting Washington. Jacob deGrom takes on Stephen Strasburg. Both pitchers walked one and struck out seven in their first outings allowing one run. Strasburg comes in with a slightly lower ERA as he lasted 6 1/3 innings versus 5 2/3 for deGrom.

An hour later, Boston welcomes the Rays to the first 2018 game at Fenway as Yonny Chirinos makes his first MLB start for the Rays, while David Price takes the hill for the Red Sox. Chirinos got his MLB career off to a good start with four shutout innings of relief, as he is part of the Rays four man, short start experiment. Price pitched a bit better at home during his Red Sox tenure, allowing a .243/.285/.413 slash line at Fenway versus .253/.306/.389 on the road.

The Miami Marlins make their way north for the Philadelphia opener as Caleb Smith battles Nick Pivetta. Smith, an acquisition from the Yankees, struck out eight in 5 1/3 innings during his first start for the Marlins. He had a good minor league strikeout rate, but no where near that high. Pivetta allowed runs in his first start, but no home runs. After giving up 25 last season in 133.0 innings, continuing to control the long ball should help him improve.

The White Sox welcome the Tigers and Jordan Zimmermann as James Shields throws the first pitch at home for Chicago. The starters are two of the three pitchers that since the start of the 2016 season allowed at least a .500 slugging percentage (minimum 1000 batters faced). The sluggers on both teams should be looking forward to hitting this afternoon.

James Paxton and Kyle Gibson square off as the Mariners help the Twins open Target Field for 2018. The Indians roughed up Paxton in his first start, as the lefties in the line-up went four for six against the Seattle left-hander with a double and a homer. Gibson comes off consecutive seasons allowing a 5.07 ERA. He allowed no hits in six innings of work in his first start, but walked five batters. He is an unusual Twins pitcher in that he allows a high walk rate.

Finally, the Diamondbacks send Robbie Ray against the Cardinals as Adam Wainwright comes off the disabled list for the Cardinals home opener. Ray struck out eight in five innings in his first start, but the other two legs of the three-true outcomes stool came up short. He allowed three home runs and three walks. Wainwright posted a 4.81 ERA the last two seasons, but managed a 25-14 record. His three-true outcomes were not bad, but his timing was poor. There were certain base situations where he got crushed.

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March 31, 2018 September 7, 2017

Games of the Day

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Sonny Gray face Kevin Gausman as the Yankees and Orioles play the rubber game of their series. The Yankees scored zero or one run in four of Gray’s six starts with the team, which is why Gray is 2-4 despite a 3.16 ERA with the Yankees. Gausman owns an 8.38 ERA against the Yankees this season thank in part to 16 walks issued in 19 1/3 innings.

The Twins and the Royals start a four-game series important to the AL Wild Card race, and it might also be the slugfest of the day. Kyle Gibson takes on Sam Gaviglio. Gibson allowed 52 extra base hits in 517 opposition at bats this season, good for a .478 slugging percentage. Gaviglio allowed 15 home runs in 62 1/3 rookie innings. Add 15 other extra base hits and opponents are slugging .532 against him. The Royals would be served well by taking three out of four from the Twins, while the Twins could knock KC out of the race by taking three of four themselves.

Finally, the Rockies try to take advantage of the Dodgers offensive slump as they send Jon Gray against Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers are 1-11 in their last 12 games, their only win came in Kershaw’s return from the disabled list, a 1-0 victory. The scored just 27 runs in those 11 games, scoring 0 or 1 run six times. The team is hitting just .195/.261/.306 during the stretch. If the Dodger owned a normal big lead for this time of the season, we would be talking about an epic collapse right now. While it still could happen, blowing a 21 game would similar to the 1968 long jump in terms of destroying a record.

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August 22, 2017

Games of the Day

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The Blue Jays and Rays try to climb in the AL Wild Card race as Chris Rowley takes on Chris Archer. I hope Christopher Cross sings the National Anthem. Rowley makes his third start, walking six and striking out six in 10 1/3 innings, but has yet to allow a home run. Archer reached 200 K for the third consecutive year, and really blows batters away at home with 113 K in 84 innings.

The Twins and White Sox continue their series. Kyle Gibson tries to keep Minnesota near the top of the wild card race, but the big story in the 2017 and White Sox debut of Lucas Giolito. Giolito was the big prize in the trade that sent Adam Eaton to Washington. Eaton played very well for the Nationals until a possible season ending injury. Giolito pitched poorly in six games for the Nationals last season, allowing seven home runs and 12 walks in 21 1/3 innings. He hasn’t exactly impressed at AAA, with a 4.48 ERA and a 6-10 record. He struck out 9.4 batters per nine, which is good, but his walks and home runs remained high.

Washington travels to Houston for a possible World Series preview as Tanner Roark pitches against Charlie Morton. Roark appears to have overcome his June woes as he owns a 3.13 ERA since the All-Star break. He struck out 35 and allowed just 25 hits in his last 37 1/3 innings. Morton allowed just three home runs since the break in 43 2/3 innings, after allowing 8 HR in 63 2/3 innings before the All-Star game.

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August 11, 2017

Games of the Day

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The Red “Hot” Sox visit New York to take on the second place Yankees in three-game series. Boston won eight games in a row to extend their AL East lead to 4 1/2 games over New York. Eduardo Rodriguez faces Jaime Garcia in the series opener. Rodriguez pitched well at Yankee Stadium in his career, 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA. Despite few strikeouts, he allowed just 17 hits and five walks in 20 innings there. The two big trades for Garcia and Sonny Gray have yet to produce a win for the Yankees. Garcia allowed six runs in 4 2/3 inning during his first outing for New York.

Slugfest of the day goes to the game between the Twins and the Tigers. Kyle Gibson and Anibel Sanchez both own ERAs over 6.00. Gibson allows a .510 slugging percentage this season, while Sanchez comes in at .570.

The battle of Texas features Charlie Morton of the Astros and Cole Hamels of the Rangers. Morton held the Rangers to one run in six innings in his only start this against them this season, striking out eight. Hamels in undefeated at home in six starts this season, 4-0 with a 3.12 ERA. Only three of his nine home runs came in Arlington.

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