Tag Archives: Hisashi Iwakuma

April 16, 2017

Games of the Day

Jerad Eickhoff takes on Gio Gonzalez as the Phillies and Nationals continue to battle in the hotly contested NL East. Effectively wild describes Eickhoff’s season so far, as he walked five batters in his first 13 2/3 innings, but struck out 13. That led to just eight hits allowed and a 1.98 ERA. Two of the four runs he allowed, however, came on solo homers. Gonzalez also struck out 13 in 13 innings, but with just two walks and one home run allowed, his ERA stands at 0.69.

Sophomore James Taillon faces veteran Jon Lester as the Pirates battle the Cubs. Taillon made two starts against Chicago in his rookie year. He was hammered for three home runs his first time out, just his third start in the majors. He pitched much better the second time, his last start of 2016, holding the Cubs to one run in six innings. Lester, at seasonal age 33, still dazzles with strikeouts. He fanned 14 batters in 11 innings so far in 2017.

James Shields and the White Sox play the surprising Twins and Hector Santiago. The Twins are tied with the Dodgers with the highest run differential in the majors, +25. Shields recovered his high strikeout rate this season leading to just four hits in 10 2/3 innings. Two of those were home runs, but keeping the bases empty lowers the impact of the long balls. Santiago induces a very low BABIP, .266 for his career and .182 this season. That’s why his ERA looks much lower than one would expect given his three-true outcomes. This season it stands at 2.38 versus a FIP of 4.53 and an xFIP of 5.92.

Finally, the struggling Rangers and Mariners send Cole Hamels and Hisashi Iwakuma to the mound. Hamels looks like he should have a higher ERA than his 2.77 mark. So far, opponents are just 1 for 9 against him with runners in scoring position. Iwakuma owns a 2.25 ERA coming into the game but his six walks and four strikeouts in 12 innings spells trouble for the starter down the road.

Enjoy!

April 9, 2017

Games of the Day

The Yankees try to hang a loss on the Orioles as CC Sabathia faces Wade Miley. Sabathia pitched five shutout innings in his first game, allowing three hits, but only striking out two. We could be seeing the beginning of Sabathia’s transformation into a Tommy John type pitcher, although with a much faster fastball. In other words, a lefty who allows his defense to help him. Miley posted a 6.17 in eleven starts after the Orioles acquired him in 2016, but posted very good strikeout and walk numbers.

Stephen Strasburg makes his second start of the season, and tries to tame a Phillies offense that scored 17 runs Saturday night. He will face Jeremy Hellickson. Strasburg was throwing hard in game one, but only struck out three batters. We will see today if that was Strasburg’s doing, or the Marlins just trying to attack him early. Hellickson also allowed the Phillies defense to help him in his first start, walking one batter and striking out one in five innings.

Seattle tries to avoid a sweep by the Angels as Hisashi Iwakuma takes on Matt Shoemaker. Iwakuma dominated the Angels during his career, walking just 15 batters in 121 innings. He has run into some trouble in Anaheim, however. Shoemaker keeps his walks in check against Seattle, but they have hit a decent number of home runs against him.

Finally, the Sunday night game features the Marlins and Mets with Edinson Volquez facing Noah Syndergaard. Both made good first starts of the season. Volquez did not allow a run in five innings, walking one and striking out six. Syndergaard pitched six innings with no walks and seven strikeouts.

Enjoy!

April 4, 2017

Games of the Day

The Tigers and White Sox try once again to play opening day with Justin Verlander facing Jose Quintana. My thoughts on the game were in yesterday’s post.

Hisashi Iwakuma leads the Mariners against the Astros and Lance McCullers. Despite not reaching the US major leagues until he was in his 30s, Iwakuma owns an impressive career. His 63-37 record represents a .630 winning percentage for a team that’s a little under .500 during his tenure. His strength is limiting walks. Those rose last season, however, as did his ERA. McCullers posted identical 3.22 ERAs in each of his first two seasons. Last season he upped his strikeout rate while decreasing home runs, but the trade-off was more walks. He only made 14 starts due to injury. Keeping him healthy will be one key to the Astros season.

A battle of veteran aces takes place in St. Louis where Jake Arrieta takes on Adam Wainwright as the Cubs try to get in the win column against the Cardinals. Arrieta walked 76 batters in 197 1/3 innings in 2016 after walking 89 batters in 385 2/3 innings the previous two seasons. It did not seem to hurt him as the Cubs defense helped Jake allow just 138 hits, good for a .194 BA allowed. Wainwright returned from an injury filled 2015 to make 33 starts in 2016, but his 4.62 ERA was the highest of any full season he pitched. That was mainly due to his single season high of 22 home runs allowed.

Finally, Matt Shoemaker returns from a horrific head injury to battle the Athletics and Sean Manaea. Shoemaker had an interesting spring. He struck out 21 batters and walked five in 17 innings, which is great. He did allowed a ton of hits and home runs, but Arizona will do that to a pitcher. Manaea tries to improve on a rookie year in which he posted excellent walk numbers, but allowed a few too many home runs.

Enjoy!

April 4, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.278 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard
0.278 — Jose Altuve batting against Hisashi Iwakuma
0.272 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Patrick Corbin
0.272 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zach Davies
0.264 — Charles Blackmon batting against Zach Davies
0.264 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard
0.262 — Javier Baez batting against Adam Wainwright
0.262 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zach Davies
0.261 — A.J. Pollock batting against Johnny Cueto
0.260 — Adrian Gonzalez batting against Clayton Richard
0.260 — Hunter Pence batting against Patrick Corbin
0.260 — Buster Posey batting against Patrick Corbin

For those who are new and don’t want to follow the links, I am calculating hit average, hits/PA. I take the three-year average (2015-2017) and regress to the 2017 mean for batters with less than 600 PA:

(Hits + (LGAVG * (600-PA)))/600

So if LGAVG is .230 and someone went 25 for 100 over the last three seasons, their regressed hit average would be .233. For the current season, I regress for anyone with less than 200 PA. So if the same person went 2 for 4 in the opening game, their 2017 regressed hit average would be .238. I do the same thing for the pitchers. I then figure the Log5 for this season, the Log5 for three years, and average the two to get the number above.

So early in the season, players with good three year hit averages will dominate, or someone like Corey Seager, who is off the charts in a short time.

The NN with Park picks. Note that this uses the same values as the program above. Instead of calculating a Log5 BA, the NN calculates the probability of getting a hit in the game.

0.278, 0.722 — Jose Altuve batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.272, 0.713 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zach Davies.
0.278, 0.713 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard.
0.272, 0.705 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.261, 0.703 — A.J. Pollock batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.264, 0.699 — Charles Blackmon batting against Zach Davies.
0.257, 0.695 — Yunel Escobar batting against Sean Manaea.
0.262, 0.689 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zach Davies.
0.250, 0.688 — Jean Segura batting against Lance McCullers.
0.260, 0.686 — Buster Posey batting against Patrick Corbin.

The first number is the Log5 hit average as calculated above, for a sanity check. The second number is the probability of the batter getting a hit in the game. So the NN concludes that Jose Altuve is the most likely player (the program knows about) to get a hit. Altuve dominated the leader boards last season. Note that the best players in this list have about a 25 to 30 percent chance of not getting a hit, which is why putting together a long streak with the best information is a very tough task.

I’ll do one more sanity check. Altuve should have faced Iwakuma a number of times in their careers. In that time, Altuve is 16 for 38 against Iwakuma with one walk and one hit by pitch, a .400 hit average. Since the start of 2015, Altuve is 6 for 11 with a walk against Iwakuma, a .500 hit average. Note that the NN makes no use of the actual batter vs. pitcher stats. Often, they don’t exist, or exist in such small sample sizes to be meaningless. Based upon the hit averages of the two players, it says that Altuve should hit this pitcher well. In this case he does.

Posey hits Corbin well, too, but he hits a lot of pitchers better.

A final note. You will not find any Tigers or White Sox players here. I do not track rosters, so I used last team played for this season to decide what batters are facing the opposing starters. Since those two teams have not played yet, I don’t have data.

September 26, 2016

Games of the Day

The Indians start a four-game series in Detroit, with Corey Kluber taking on Buck Farmer. The Indians clinched an AL Central tie with the Tigers losing on Sunday, so the Tigers need to win all their remaining games while Cleveland loses all of theirs. The Tigers also need to win as many as possible to have a shot at the AL Wild Card.

Kluber can set a new single season high with a win as he goes for his 19th victory of the season. Kluber dominated Detroit this season, 3-0 in three starts with a 1.88 ERA. He struck out 24 in 24 innings with just five walks. Farmer makes his first start of the season. He struck out 25 in 24 1/3 innings as a reliever, but walked 16.

The Mets travel to Miami for what will no doubt be a very emotional game as the Marlins publicly mourn the death of Jose Fernandez. Fernandez was schedule to start this game, but Adam Conley gets the pressure of filling in for the former ace. Bartolo Colon takes the hill for the Mets.

Colon pitched great since the start of August, with a 2.26 ERA in ten starts. He’s also giving the Mets 6 1/3 innings per start in that time. Conley’s ERA is about one run better at home, as he allowed just 4 of his 13 home runs in Miami.

Finally, the Mariners and Astros start a three-game series as both team fight for a wild card. The teams are both on the edge of the wild card race, and any kind of split in the series likely ends the chances for both teams. Hisashi Iwakuma battles Collin McHugh. Iwakuma posted his highest season win total this year, but also his highest ERA. His ERA is at 4.24 against the Astros. McHugh is 3-0 in September with a 3.27 ERA. He allowed just one home runs in his 22 innings this month.

Enjoy!

September 20, 2016

Games of the Day

Atlanta takes on the Mets with Julio Teheran facing Robert Gsellman. Teheran is a good pitcher on a bad team, with a 5-10 record despite a 3.18 ERA. He greatly improved his control this season, reducing his walk rate from 3.3 per 9 IP in 2015 to 2.0 per 9 IP in 2016. So far in his rookie year, Gsellman allows a high OBP but moderates that with few extra base hits off his pitches.

The Nationals continue their series with the Marlins as Tanner Roark battles Jose Fernandez. Roark can top his 2014 win total with a victory Tuesday night. The Marlins, however, hit him pretty well in his career, with a .280/.338/.417 opponents slash line. Fernandez showed no ill effects of Tommy John surgery has he set a new single season high in innings and wins, and struck out 54 more batters than in his 2013 season in about the same number of innings.

Seattle tries to even their series with Toronto with J.A. Happ facing Hisashi Iwakuma. Taking the next two games would great enhance the Mariners wild card chances. Happ goes for his 20th win of the season, the first time he would reach that level. His .294 opposition OBP keeps batters off base, and his .348 slugging percentage allowed with men on mitigates the damage when they do reach. Iwakuma is pitching well down the stretch, although his 3.07 ERA in his last nine starts resulted in a 5-4 record.

Finally, the Giants try to even their series with the Dodgers with Johnny Cueto taking the mound against Rich Hill. Cueto pitched well against the Dodgers this season, 2-1 in four starts with a 3.18 ERA. He struck out 29 batters in 28 1/3 innings with just five walks. Hill gave up four runs his last time out after not allowing a run in his first three Dodgers games. He held the Giants scoreless for six innings in his Dodgers debut.

Enjoy!

August 29, 2016

Games of the Day

Threes are wild as Toronto travels to Baltimore. The teams play a three game series, the Orioles in third place in the AL East, trailing the Blue Jays by three games. Marco Estrada takes on Wade Miley. Estrada made three starts against the Orioles this season, with some positives and negatives. He struck out 23 in 17 innings, holding Baltimore to 15 hits. He walked ten and allowed two home runs however, so the Orioles scored eight runs in those 17 innings. Miley allowed 35 hits in 22 innings since joining the Orioles, resulting in an 8.18 ERA.

The Mariners trail the Rangers by 8 1/2 games as they open a three-game series in Texas. A Seattle sweep would put the Mariners close enough to have a shot at winning the division in September, but it would also help keep them in the AL Wild Card race. For the second start in a row, Hisashi Iwakuma faces a fellow countryman, this time Yu Darvish. Iwakuma pitched well against Texas this season, with 22 strikeouts, six walks, and three home runs allowed in 25 innings. His is 1-2 in four starts, however, as despite a 3.24 ERA. Darvish allowed nine home runs in 65 innings, his big weak spot. His control is great, with 81 K and 19 walks in 65 innings. It’s a strong return from elbow surgery.

The Yankees and Royals are separated by 1/2 game in the AL Wild Card race as Michael Pineda faces Dillon Gee. The Yankees bring up the rear in the seven team WC race, 3 1/2 games behind #2 Baltimore, 4 1/2 games behind #1 Boston. Pineda gives up a ton of extra-base hits, but the big problem is that the slugging percentage jumps about 80 points with men on base. His timing of allowing extra-base hits is awful. Gee is the opposite, as opponents slug .541 against him with the bases empty, but just .373 with runners on base.

Enjoy!

August 24, 2016

Games of the Day

3 Replies

It’s the battle of Japan in Seattle as Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees take on Hisashi Iwakuma. Tanaka makes his third start in Seattle, a place where his home country doesn’t need to wake up too early to watch. He’s 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA, striking out 20 Mariners in 16 innings at Safeco Field. Iwakuma is 8-2 at home with a 3.48 ERA, with only eight of his 34 walks coming at home.

The Rangers send Yu Darvish against the Reds and rookie Tim Adleman. Darvish appears to have not lost velocity or control due to his Tommy John surgery. He struck out 76 batters in 59 innings so far, walking just 14. Adleman is one reason the Reds improved since the All-Star break. In his first five starts, he has allowed 11 walks and three home runs in 24 1/3 innings, but still holds a 2.96 ERA. He held batters to a .154 BA with runners in scoring position.

Finally, Johnny Cueto leads the Giants against the Dodgers and Rich Hill. Cueto improved his home run rate compared to last season, which helped bring his ERA down nearly two runs. Hill makes his first start for the Dodgers. He posted a 2.25 ERA for Oakland, striking out 90 batters in 76 innings.

Enjoy!

August 8, 2016

Games of the Day

The Giants visit the Marlins with Johnny Cueto facing Jose Fernandez. Left-handed batters hit Cueto better than right-handers, but they don’t hit Cueto well. Lefties own a .255/.303/.365 slash line this year against Cueto. Fernandez goes for his 13th win, which would give him a new single season high. He is 9-2 in Miami this season with a 2.11 ERA.

The Rangers head northwest to Colorado for an interleague series with the Rockies. Cole Hamels takes on Tyler Anderson. Hamels made five starts at Coors with the Phillies. His first one was poor, but since then he allowed 7 runs in 28 1/3 innings for a 2.22 ERA. Anderson, a rookie, is another Rockies pitcher who handles Coors well. So far, he is 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA in his home park, walking 10 and striking out 41 in 43 1/3 innings.

Finally, the Tigers lead the Mariners by 3 1/2 games in the wild card race (3rd and fourth place respectively) as Michael Fulmer leads Detroit against Hisashi Iwakuma of Seattle. Fulmer is a leading rookie of the year candidate as he goes for his 10th win of the season. He comes into the game with a 2.42 ERA. He held Seattle to one run in 4 1/3 innings in his first start against them. Iwakuma improved since the All-Star games, 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA in four starts. He cut down on his home runs, allowing two since the break after giving up 18 dingers in his first 18 starts.

Enjoy!

August 3, 2016

Games of the Day

The Rangers series with the Orioles as Cole Hamels faces Kevin Gausman. Hamels goes for his 20th win since joining the Rangers at the 2015 trade deadline. He is 19-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 33 starts for Texas. In terms of three-true outcomes, Gausman is very good at striking out batters and preventing walks. He is very poor, however, at keeping the ball in the park. He owns the eighth highest HR per 9 IP in the majors among pitchers with 100 IP.

Chris Sale tries to become the first American League pitcher to reach 15 wins. He leads the White Sox against the Tigers and rookie of the year candidate Michael Fulmer. Sale split his wins and losses, 7-2 both home and away, but with a 2.15 ERA on the road. He’s allowed just four of his 17 home runs away. Fulmer’s 2.50 ERA has a lot to do with the timing of the hits against him, as he allowed a .175 BA with men in scoring position.

Finally, if Sale fails to win fifteen, Rick Porcello gets his chance to accomplish the goal as the Red Sox battle the Mariners and Hisashi Iwakuma. This is the fourth season Porcello won at least 14 games. A win would match his high from 2014. He walked just 24 batters this season in 135 innings. Iwakuma is not getting batters to hit ground balls this season. For his career, he allowed GB 48% of the time, this year he is down to 40%.

Enjoy!

July 29, 2016

Games of the Day

Hisashi Iwakuma and Jon Lester get the day started with an afternoon game in Chicago as the Mariners visit the Cubs. Iwakuma ranks seventh in the majors in winning percentage since joining the majors in 2012. Not bad, considering the Mariners have not been a great team in that time frame. Lester tries to continue his home dominance. He owns a 2.18 ERA at Wrigley this season.

Baltimore opens an important AL East series in Toronto with Kevin Gausman facing Marco Estrada. The Orioles lead over the Blue Jays is 1 1/2 games. Gausman’s poor record comes mostly from this struggles on the road. He is 0-6 with a 4.94 ERA away from Camden Yards. Estrada suffers some bad luck as well, with a 5-4 record despite a 2.94 ERA. Or maybe his luck evens out. His ERA is much lower than his FIP.

The Rockies try to continue their surge into the playoff picture as Tyler Chatwood takes on Steven Matz of the Mets. Chatwood was built for the Rockies road games, 5-0 with a 1.30 ERA away from Coors with no home runs allowed in 48 1/3 innings. Matz allowed eight of his 11 home runs at Citi Field this year.

Finally, the Nationals and Giants continue their series between first place teams as Max Scherzer battle Jeff Samardzija. Sherzer has been on a roll since the start of June, tied with Michael Fulmer for the best ERA in the majors in that time, 1.71. Samardzija allowed just four of his 19 home runs at home this season.

Enjoy!

June 5, 2016

Games of the Day

Matt Harvey tries to repeat his latest success in a battle of aces as the Mets face Miami and Jose Fernandez. After getting knocked around in three straight starts, Harvey made an adjust and pitched seven shutout inning in his last start. In his 12th start of the season, Fernandez is just four strikeouts away from 100. That would give him a shot at 300 K for the season.

The Yankees and Orioles play the rubber game of their series as CC Sabathia takes on Kevin Gausman. Sabathia’s 2.85 ERA may be due to the Yankees getting him out of game early. He is averaging less than six innings per start. The other part is just two home runs allowed in 47 1/3 innings, but again, the Yankees may be doing a very good job of pulling Sabathia before the HR can fly. Gausman looks for his first win. He is not striking out batters at home, 5.76 per nine at home compared to 11.5 K per nine on the road.

Marco Estrada battles Eduardo Rodríguez as the Blue Jays and Red Sox also play a series deciding game. In his first two starts against the Red Sox this season, Estrada walked three and struck out 11 in 13 innings, helping him to a 2.77 ERA. In his short major league career, Rodriguez stands 11-6 with a 3.81 ERA. He’s allowed just 37 walks in 127 2/3 innings.

Finally, Texas goes for a sweep of the Mariners as Hisashi Iwakuma faces Derek Holland. Iwakuma allowed ten home runs so far this season in 69 1/3 innings. Eight of those were solo shots, however. Holland posts low walk and strikeout rates. With so many balls in play, opponents are hitting .274 against him with a .423 slugging percentage.

Enjoy!

December 18, 2015

Physical Fail

Hisashi Iwakuma took a physical, and his deal with the Dodgers fell apart. Instead, he signs back with the Mariners:

Last week, CBS Sports MLB Insider Jon Heyman reported that the Dodgers had signed Iwakuma to a three-year deal for $45 million, pending a physical. While in many cases the physical is merely routine before a deal is finalized and announced by the team, the Dodgers uncovered something in Iwakuma’s physical that caused them to red-flag the agreed-upon deal. While the opportunity was there for Iwakuma to work out the terms of a new contract with the Dodgers, he instead returns to Seattle to play for the only major-league team he has ever known.

It’s not clear from the article how much money the Mariners are paying. The deal could work out to three years, but only the first is guaranteed. The Mariners originally offered two years, $30 million, but the Dodgers went the extra year. Knowing the pitcher as they do, Seattle seems comfortable dealing with the potential medical problems.

August 12, 2015

Iwakuma Goes for a No-No

Hisashi Iwakuma walked three but has not allowed a hit as he pitches in the ninth. Kyle Seager just made a great play on a foul pop for the first out of the ninth. Manny Machado then grounds to Seager for the second out.

The Mariners lead the Orioles 3-0.

Update: Gerardo Parra flies out to centerfield, and Iwakuma throws the fifth no-hitter in Mariners history!

Update: It was a very nice game by Iwakuma. He struck out seven, throwing 116 pitches, 77 for strikes. Opponents are now hitting just .228 against him, so he was a good candidate for a no-hitter. The game is not only his first no-hitter, but his first complete game and first shutout.

July 28, 2015

Games of the Day

James Shields leads the Padres into New York to take on Noah Syndergaard and the Mets. With 20 home runs allowed, Shields allowed at least 20 HR in nine straight seasons. His rookie year he allowed 18 in 124 2/3 innings. He has not allowed the most home runs in the majors during the nine year streak, however, but he is close. All four of Syndergaard’s wins came at home this season, where he walked six and struck out 42 in 41 1/3 innings.

The Mets are chasing the Nationals, who travel to Miami as Jordan Zimmermann faces Jose Fernandez. Zimmermann does not have a decision against Miami this season despite a 2.08 ERA in two starts. Fernandez picked up where he left off before the Tommy John surgery. He allowed one home run and three walks in his first 26 innings back, good for a 2.77 ERA.

The Tigers and Rays continue their series with David Price taking on Jake Odorizzi. This is only the second time Price faced his former team, and was nearly perfect the first time. Odorizzi owns a 1.40 ERA at home, where he allowed just one of his seven home runs.

Finally, Zack Godley tries to stay divine as the Diamondbacks face the Mariners and Hisashi Iwakuma. Godley pitched six shutout innings in his first major league start, walking none and striking out seven. Iwakuma is getting pounded for power with a .513 slugging percentage allowed. Nineteen of the 42 hits against him went for extra bases.

Enjoy!

July 18, 2015

Games of the Day

Michael Pineda hosts his former team as the Mariners send Hisashi Iwakuma against the Yankees. A strained lat muscle hampered Iwakuma’s production this season, but pitched eight shutout innings in his last start. Pineda walked two and struck out nine in his only start against his former team.

The Cubs send Jon Lester against the Braves and Manny Banuelos. Lester is pitching well in July, with 23 K, three walks, and no home runs in 21 innings. That’s good for a 1.71 ERA, but an 0-2 record. The rookie Banuelos allowed just seven hits and one run in his first 12 innings. The run came on a solo homer.

Finally, Phil Hughes and Scott Kazmir as the Twins try to climb in the LA Central against the lackluster Athletics. Hughes has already allowed six more home runs than he did all of last season. He still keeps his walks low, which helps limit the damage. Kazmir has not allowed a home run in 57 2/3 home innings, good for a 1.40 ERA in Oakland this season.

Enjoy!

September 26, 2014

Games of the Day

The Nationals play their second double header in a row, this time hosting Miami. They need one more win to secure home field advantage throughout the NL playoffs. The afternoon game offers the best pitching match-up, with Jarred Cosart facing Doug Fister. Cosart owns a 2.29 ERA since joining the Marlins. Opponents hit just .206/.242/.302 in Washington against Fister this season.

The Pirates still have a shot at the NL Central title as they send Vance Worley against Mike Leake in Cincinnati. Worley cut his home run rate by more than half as compared to 2013, helping him lower his ERA from 7.21 to 2.93. Leake increased his innings pitched for the fourth consecutive year, surpassing 200 IP for the first time in his career.

A win by Oakland guarantees them at least a tie for a wild card slot as Scott Kazmir takes on Nick Tepesch of Texas. Kazmir owns a high September ERA this season despite good three-true outcome numbers. I doubt at this point that Billy Beane is happy with good process, however. Tepesch improved down the stretch. After allowing six home runs in 22 2/3 July innings, he allowed just three in his last 54 1/3 innings.

Finally, Jered Weaver goes for his 19th win and Hisashi Iwakuma pitches to keep Seattle in the post season hunt as the Angels face the Mariners. Weaver has been a bit wild against the Mariners this season, walking eight batters in 18 innings. In two starts against the Angels, Iwakuma allowed nine runs in 10 1/3 innings, the Angels going 3 for 6 with men in scoring position against him.

Enjoy!

September 15, 2014

Games of the Day

The Orioles can clinch a tie for the AL East title with a win over the Blue Jays Monday evening. Marcus Stroman takes on Wei-Yin Chen. Stroman put together a fine rookie season with excellent three-true outcome numbers and a high winning percentage. Chen brought his home runs under control, allowing just six since the All-Star break.

Washington’s magic number stand at four as the Nationals open what they hope will be an NL East Clinching series in Atlanta. Stephen Strabrug faces Ervin Santana. Strasburg owns a 6.99 ERA in Atlanta for his career, having allowed seven home runs and 18 walks in 28 1/3 innings. Santana is 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA against Washington this season.

Jarred Cosart and Jacob deGrom square off in a battle of good, young pitchers as the Marlins visit the Mets. Cosart blossomed with the Marlins, walking 10 and striking out 30 in 46 2/3 innings. deGrom is a good rookie of the year candidate with a 2.62 ERA in 127 1/3 innings.

Seattle tries to gain in the AL Wild Card race as they visit the Angels. An Angels win eliminates Seattle from the AL West title. Hisashi Iwakuma takes on Matt Shoemaker. A win by Iwakuma would give him 15 for the season, and would set a new single season high in the category. Shoemaker goes for his 16th win, which may put him in second place in the AL wins race. His teammate, Jered Weaver, currently leads the league with 17.

Enjoy!

August 13, 2014

Games of the Day

Michael Pineda returns to the Yankees rotation in time to face division leading Baltimore. Pineda walked one and struck out 11 in 7 2/3 AAA innings during his rehabilitation. Chris Tillman takes the hill for the Orioles. He owns a 2.77 ERA at home thanks to a low home run rate, but is 3-5 despite the great ERA.

Oakland and Kansas City play game three of their four-game series with Scott Kazmir taking on Jason Vargas. Kazmir is going through a rough patch, having struck out just eight batters in his last 17 2/3 innings. Vargas owns the best season ERA of his career, 3.48, having gained control of his home run rate.

Finally, a wild card battle in Seattle as the Blue Jays send R.A. Dickey against Hisashi Iwakuma. Dickey’s opposition batting numbers are good, .241/.312/.411, but they balloon to .303/.393/.549 with men in scoring position. With a win tonight, Iwakuma would go 34-17 for his career, a .667 winning percentage. That’s not bad given Seattle’s struggles the previous two seasons.

Enjoy!

July 19, 2014

Nemesis

The Angels beat the Mariners 3-2 in sixteen innings Friday night. Mike Trout doubled and scored the winning run to finish the night 3 for 7. Only one of those hits came off Seattle starter Hisashi Iwakuma, however. Iwakuma, pitching in the same division, is one of the few pitchers who faced Trout at least 20 times. If you take down to 15 plate appearances, Iwakuma has done the best job of keeping Trout off base, and limiting his slugging percentage. Note that Iwakuma’s Seattle teammate, Felix Hernandez, faced Trout the most, and Michael just hammered the King, as he hammered most of the good pitchers on the list. Iwakuma does throw the split-fingered fastball, a pitch that has fallen out of use. Trout may not have seen enough of that pitch to learn how to tattoo it yet.

July 18, 2014

Games of the Day

The major leagues return to action Friday night, with the Brewers and Nationals kicking things off in a battle of division leaders. Kyle Lohse takes on Stephen Strasburg. Lohse demonstrated great control this season, but mostly at home. He walked just four batters in Milwaukee in 59 1/3 innings, but 19 batters away in 67 2/3 innings. Strasburg continues to live on the edge of greatness. His K and BB numbers are excellent, but his .301/.343/.432 slash line with runners on raises his ERA.

The Indians try to catch up in the AL Central as they begin a three-day, four-game series at the Tigers. Trevor Bauer faces Anibal Sanchez in game one. Bauer owns a 5.46 ERA on the road versus 2.82 at home. While he brought his walks under control over all, he issued 10 in 28 innings away from Cleveland. Sanchez hammers left-handed batters, with a .193/.241/290 slash line allowed, striking out 44 in 207 at bats.

Seattle holds the second wild card, but trail wild card leader LAnaheim by 6 1/2 games as the two meet in southern California. Hisashi Iwakuma battles Jered Weaver. Iwakuma keeps free passes at a minimum with just eight walks allowed in 96 2/3 innings. Despite that, seven of his 11 home runs allowed came with men on base. With 10 wins, Weaver reached double digits in wins in each of his nine seasons in the majors.

Finally, division leaders Baltimore and Oakland meet in the O.com cesspool, with Chris Tillman facing Jeff Samardzija. Tillman owns one of the strangest home/road splits I’ve seen, 1-5 with a 2.89 ERA at home, 6-0 with a 5.20 ERA on the road. Samardzija walked just one batter in 15 innings since joining the Athletics.

Enjoy!

June 20, 2014

Games of the Day

The Orioles visit the Yankees, both teams within striking distance of the Blue Jays. New York leads Baltimore by one game for second place as Ubaldo Jimenez faces Hiroki Kuroda. If Jimenez had pitched a bit better so he was 5-5 instead of 2-8, it would be the Orioles in second place. Kuroda’s ERA is up this season as well, but he stayed around .500 at 4-5. When a team has a starter like Masahiro Tanaka, the rest of the staff can be around .500 and the team will still look good.

The Braves can pass the Nationals for first place as Mike Minor takes on Stephen Strasburg. If the Nationals can hit an Atlanta pitcher, it should be Minor, how allows a .296/.346/.481 opponents slash line. Strasburg’s .258 BA seems way to high for someone who struck out 113 batters in 94 innings. Opponents own a .349 BABIP against him. His FIP stands at 2.42.

Two improving teams square off in Kansas City as the Mariners face the Royals with Hisashi Iwakuma and James Shields taking the hill. Iwakuma walked just six batters in 66 innings, actually allowing more home runs (7). Shields pitched just one third of his games and innings at home this season. If he makes up for that the rest of the way, it could be very good for the Royals as his home slugging percentage stands at .379 versus .460 on the road.

Enjoy!

June 4, 2014

Games of the Day

Seattle and Atlanta play the only early afternoon game of the day as Hisashi Iwakuma faces Mike Minor. Iwakuma improved on his control for the second year in a row. He started off at a good 3.1 BB per 9 IP in 2012, reduced it to 1.7 BB per 9 IP in 2013, and is turning in a 0.8 BB per 9 IP this season. All six of Minor’s home runs have come at home, but five of them were solo shots.

In what could be a big strikeout game, A.J. Burnett and the Phillies takes on Stephen Strasburg in Washington. Strasburg leads the majors in K per 9 innings. Burnett got off to a slow start this season, but averaged 9.4 K per 9 IP in his last four starts.

Adam Wainwright tried to reclaim the top stop in the NL Cy Young tracker as the I-70 series continues against the Royals and Jason Vargas. Wainwright owns a 1.59 ERA on the road, allowing just one home run in 51 innings. Vargas allowed eight of his 11 homers at home. They Royals may want to get him out of games earlier as six of the 11 have happened after Jason passed the 75 pitch mark.

Enjoy!

September 18, 2013

Cy Candidate?

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Hisashi Iwakuma pitches eight shutout innings against the Tigers as Seattle wins big 8-0. Iwakuma lowers his ERA to 2.76, putting him among the best in the American League. He’s won 13 and lost six on a poor team, and pitched well over 200 innings. His strikeout and walk rates are excellent. His home run rate is a little high, but the low OBP he allows makes up for that.

So how many Cy Young votes should he get? FanGraphs has him ranked 14th in WAR, but his ERA is much better than his FIP. The Mariners, however, have the worst defense in the majors in terms of UZR, so maybe Iwakuma is doing something that FIP doesn’t measure. He looks like a strong candidate to me, and I hope the writers give him attention.

August 27, 2013

Games of the Day

The Orioles still have a shot at a division title as they open a three-game series in Boston. Wei-Yin Chen and Felix Doubront face off in game one, a battle of left-handers. Chen pitched well with runners on base this season, allowing a .200 BA and a .372 slugging percentage. Doubront lowered his ERA since the All-Star break. He strikeout rate came down, but he makes up for that with fewer walks.

The Cardinals try to stay in first place in the NL Central as they continue their series with Cincinnati. Mat Latos squares off against Joe Kelly. Latos has not allowed a Cardinals home run in 19 innings against them this season, helping him to a 1.42 ERA against the division rival. In his nine starts this season, Kelly owns a 2.25 ERA. When he pitched in relief, opponents posted a .305/.362/.453 slash line. That’s down to .232/.310/.320 as a starter.

The Rangers send Derek Holland against Seattle and Hisashi Iwakuma, both with ERAs just under 3.00. Holland is at about the same number of innings as in 2012, but allowed 19 fewer home runs. Iwakuma walked just nine batters in 93 2/3 innings at home this season.

Finally, the Cubs send Travis Wood against leading Cy Young Award candidate Clayton Kershaw. Wood trives on the road, with a 2.89 ERA away from Wrigley. Kershaw should pass 200 innings for the fourth season in a row, and is 12 K away from the 200 strikeout line as well. That will also be for four straight years.

Enjoy!

July 4, 2013

Games of the Day

The Nationals emulate the Red Sox with an 11 AM game on a patriotic holiday as the Brewers send rookie Donovan Hand against Washington rookie Taylor Jordan. Hand pitched well in relief, and in his two starts pitched a bit better, posting a 1.86 ERA. He seems to pitch to contact, so the Brewers fielders need to be on their toes. Jordan lost his first start, as two unearned runs put him in a hole. He walked two and struck out one, so he’ll need to reverse that to be successful in the majors.

Justin Verlander and Esmil Rogers square off in Toronto as the Tigers play the Blue Jays. In terms of three true outcomes, Justin is pitching as well as in 2012, but his ERA isn’t as low. It could just be a timing issue, as 14 of his 19 2012 home runs allowed came with the bases empty, and this year five of eight came with men on base. Rogers stepped it up this season with men on base, holding opponents to a .212/.272/.288 slash line. He doesn’t let rallies get out of hand.

Finally, the Mariners and Rangers appear headed for another pitching duel as Hisashi Iwakuma faces youngster Martin Perez. Iwakuma has matched last season’s K total in 10 fewer innings while dramatically cutting down on his walks allowed. That led to a huge drop in his ERA, from a good 3.16 to an excellent 2.42. Perez doesn’t pitch as well as his 2.37 ERA indicates. He is Andy Pettitte like in his ability to induce double plays, so while he allows a .308 OBP overall, the four DPs he induced effectively make that .256.

Enjoy!

June 21, 2013

Games of the Day

The Rockies and Nationals offer another good pitching matchup as Tyler Chatwood takes on Stephen Strasburg. Chatwood keeps the ball in the park this season. He came into 2013 with 23 home runs allowed in 206 2/3 innings, but has not allowed one this season in 38 2/3 innings. Strasburg has been lights out at home this year, with four walks and 33 K in 33 innings, good for a 1.09 ERA.

Seattle tries to overcome Thursday’s devastating loss as they host Oakland. Bartolo Colon faces Hisashi Iwakuma. Colon is hot with seven straight quality starts, posting a 1.47 ERA in that time. He’s not striking out many batters, but opponents are still not hitting him well. He allowed a .243 BA, but only six of the 43 hits have gone for extra bases. The Mariners are 10-5 in Iwakuma’s games, one of the few Mariners putting the team over .500. His only weakness is gopher ball, but eight of the 10 home runs he allowed were solo shots due to a .238 opposition OBP.

Enjoy!

June 16, 2013

Games of the Day

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Stephen Strasburg returns to the Nationals rotation as Corey Kluber and the Indians play the rubber game of the series. Strasburg pitched well, but not quite his overwhelming self. We’ll see if that changes now that he allowed the lat to heal. Kluber has a similar profile to Strasburg in terms of strikeouts and walks, but he does allowed more home runs.

Zack Greinke takes the hill for the first time since the Arizona bean ball war as he faces rookie Gerrit Cole and the Pirates. Zack pitched poorly outside of Los Angeles with a 6.91 ERA on the road this season. He’s walked seven and struck out eight on the road. Cole pitched to contact in his first outing, walking none and striking out two. He allowed seven hits, but just two runs.

Finally, Seattle tries to gain another game on the Athletics as Hisashi Iwakuma battles Bartolo Colon. Iwakuma holds opponents to a .223 OBP. He allowed ten homers, but eight of those were solo shots. Colon is having a great June, allowing one earned run in 13 innings.

Enjoy!

May 20, 2013

Games of the Day

The Mariners stop in Cleveland on their way to Anaheim as the Mariners send Hisashi Iwakuma against Scott Kazmir in a noon start. Moved into a full time starter role this season, Iwakuma has flourished, striking out 55 and walking just eight in 58 2/3 innings. With the high K rate, he allowed just 38 hits. Kazmir struck out 17 and walked just one at Progressive Field this season.

The Diamondbacks lead the Rockies by one game in the NL West as Arizona travels to Denver with Patrick Corbin facing Jon Garland. Corbin comes in with a 1.52 ERA and a 6-0 record. He has yet to allow more than two runs in a start, and only allowed a total of two runs in his last 20 1/3 innings. He holds opponents to a .212 BA over all, and .118 with runners in scoring position (4/34). Garland allows plenty of contact, with just 14 walks and 26 strikeouts in 46 innings. That’s the reason for his high ERA both at home and on the road, but he gets the run support in Coors to win.

The slugfest of the day may take place in San Francisco where the Nationals send Zach Duke against Ryan Vogelsong, each with an ERA over 8.00. The Nationals, however, only averaged 3.0 runs per game in their last nine contests, and the Giants scored two runs in their last two games despite playing in Colorado. (They scored 17 in first two games at Coors.) We’ll see if the offenses help the pitchers, or the pitchers help the offenses.

Enjoy!

April 18, 2013

Games of the Day

Matt Cain and Yovani Gallardo come into the Giants Brewers game with high ERAs. Cain is giving up walks and home runs at a higher rate, but for the first time in his career, he’s allowing more hits than innings pitched. He has lost some velocity this season. Gallardo makes his first start since a DUI arrest. If his ERA remains above six, fans might think he’s PUI.

Alexi Ogando and the Rangers take on the newly dominant Carlos Villanueva and the Cubs Wednesday afternoon as well. Ogando made a seamless return to the rotation after 57 relief appearances in 2012. He’s still blowing away batters with 17 K in 16 2/3 innings. Carlos joins the rotation full time for the first time in his career. He walked just three batters in his first 14 innings.

Tony Cingrani

Tony Cingrani makes the first start of his major league career Thursday evening. Photo: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

On the west coast, Justin Verlander and Hisashi Iwakuma try to keep the Ks coming in Seattle. Verlander strikeouts are fine this season, but he walked seven batters in his first 18 1/3 innings. Iwakuma walked just one batter in his 20 2/3 innings so far.

Finally, rookies Jose Fernandez and Tony Cingrani square off as the Marlins face the Reds. The 20 year old Fernandez proved to be worth the call up, as he struck out 13, walked one and has not allowed a homer in his first 11 innings. Cingrani fills in the for injured Johnny Cueto. He struck out nine in five relief innings last season. He averaged 11.8 K per 9 IP in the minors with a low walk rate.

Enjoy!