Tag Archives: Dean Kremer

March 29, 2025

Games of the Day

1 Reply

The first full slate of games for 2025 starts with the Brewers at the Yankees as former bomber Nestor Cortes faces new ace Max Fried. Cortes went 16-7 with a 3.22 ERA at home for the Yankees, walking just 2.3 batters per nine innings. Fried is 3-1 in five career starts against Milwaukee with a 2.67 ERA, but has not faced them since 2022.

Max Scherzer makes his debut for the Blue Jays as they host the Orioles and Dean Kremer. The Blue Jays knocked Kremer around a bit, as he owns 4.82 ERA against them in 56 innings. That includes eleven Blue Jays homers. Scherzer stands nine strikeouts behind Justin Verlander for most in the 21st century.

Verlander and the Giants takes on Nick Lodolo and the Reds. Lodolo pitched better in 2024 than his 4.76 ERA indicates. He was hurt by allowing a .506 slugging percentage with men on base.

Walker Buehler makes his Red Sox debut as the series in Texas continues against Tyler Mahle. The poorly named pitcher does not live up to his first name, as he walked just 2.4 batters per nine IP in his career. The Rangers signed Mahle last year while he was still recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he managed 12 2/3 innings in 2024. He struck out 14 and walked five in 17 spring training innings.

Enjoy!

September 24, 2024

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Rays face the Tigers with Ryan Pepiot facing Tarik Skubal. The Rays have a tough road to a wild card, but a sweep of the Tigers would likely put them back in the picture. Meanwhile, the Tigers lose tiebreakers to the Royals and Twins, so finishing a game ahead of either of those teams is critical to their wild card hopes. Skubal is at the top of the Cy Young tracker in the AL.

The Orioles send Dean Kremer against Clarke Schmidt and the Yankees. New York need one win in the three-game series to capture the AL East title. Kremer owns a 4.63 ERA against the Yankees in eleven starts, allowing 12 home runs in 56 1/3 innings. Schmidt owns a 1.76 ERA in three starts since coming off the illjured list, but he hasn’t gone deep into games.

The Braves get a chance to catch the Mets in the NL Wild card race as the teams open a three-game set in Atlanta. Luis Severino takes the hill against Spencer Schwellenbach. Severino managed to limit hits without a ton of strikeouts, and his decent walk rate helped balance his home runs allowed. Schwellenbach keeps batters off base with a .284 OBP allowed.

The White Sox can set a modern record for losses in a season as they host the Angels. Both Jack Kochanowicz of LAnaheim and Jonathan Cannon of Chicago give up high slugging percentages, so this could be a rather high scoring game.

The Mariners play game two of their series at the Astros, four games back of Houston with five games to play. The Mariners hold the tiebreaker against Houston, and would only need to gain one more game over the last weekend if they sweep the series. An Astros win gives them the division. It’s Logan Gilbert versus Framber Valdez, a great pitching matchup.

Finally, the Padres visit the Dodgers, three games back of Los Angeles for the NL West title. Michael King takes on Landon Knack. Note that the Padres hold the tie breaker versus the Dodgers, so a sweep puts them in first place. Then, they would only need to play the Dodgers even over the last weekend.

The Rays, Orioles, Mariners, and Padres all play to start or continue a sweep. You might even lump the Braves in there. Should be a terrific Tuesday.

September 6, 2024

Putting the K in Kremer

Leave a reply

Dean Kremer of the Orioles just finished six no-hit innings against the Rays. He walked three and struck out seven so far, with 81 pitches thrown. This after getting hit on the wrist in his last start. (Picture of the swelling at the link.) We’ll see if this lasts, and if so, does Kremer stay in the game.

The Orioles lead the Rays 2-0.

Update: Junior Caminero leads off the seventh with a single to break up the no-hitter.

May 12, 2024

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Diamondbacks and Orioles start the days games in Baltimore as Zac Gallen takes on Dean Kremer. Gallen stands send in wins in the majors since the start of the 2023 season. His 3.02 ERA in that time goes along with an outstanding set of three-true outcome rates. Kremer managed to limit line drives this season to 12.5% of batted balls, which seems like a very tough number to maintain.

The Nationals play at Fenway with MacKenzie Gore facing Brayan Bello. Gore makes just his third road start of the season. He allowed two runs in ten innings away from Washington with 18 K and just two walks. Bello abandoned the four-seam fastball this season, using his change up and slider more.

The Reds and Giants match-up on the west coast as Frankie Montas battles Kyle Harrison. Montas is averaging a little over four innings per game as he works his way back from shoulder surgery. Harrison cuts his ERA by almost a run compared to his first MLB season in 2023. Last year he gave up eight home runs in 34 2/3 innings, this year he allowed five home runs in 45 innings.

Enjoy!

October 10, 2023

Playoffs Today

Leave a reply

The Astros visit the Twins in the 4 PM EDT game of the ALDS. Cristian Javier faces Sonny Gray. Javier owns an outstanding post-season record, 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA in 32 2/3 innings, mostly in relief. As s starter he allowed one hit and no runs in 11 1/3 innings, although he did walk five. Gray posted a great year preventing home runs, but this ability goes back to 2018. Note he pitched at home in a couple of great ballparks for home runs in that time.

At 9 PM EDT, the Orioles take on the Rangers, Texas clinching a spot in the ALCS with a win. Dean Kremer takes on Nathan Eovaldi. Kremer pitched a bit better on the road this season, only allowing nine of his 27 home runs away. He also finished the season strong, with a 4-1 record and 3.25 ERA after the All-Star break, cutting down his home runs in that time frame as well. Eovaldi pitches in his third post-season, coming into the game with a 5-3 record and 2.90 ERA. He’s walked eight batters in 49 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

July 14, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Lot5 Method yields these top picks:

The Marlins open the second half of the season in Baltimore. Both teams own the second best record in the league, but also find themselves in second place in a tough division. Arraez and Kremer are also alike in that they generate batter on base events mostly through hits. The main difference is that Kremer allows a ton of home runs, and Arraez keeps balls on the field.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.371, 0.791 — Luis Arraez batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.327, 0.744 — Bo Bichette batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.293, 0.714 — Joey Meneses batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.287, 0.697 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.275, 0.696 — Jarren Duran batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.267, 0.694 — Harold Ramirez batting against Alec Marsh.
  • 0.287, 0.693 — Nolan Arenado batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.263, 0.692 — Freddie Freeman batting against Justin Verlander.
  • 0.271, 0.692 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.291, 0.691 — Bryan De La Cruz batting against Dean Kremer.

Coming out of the All-Star break, I expect mostly top pitchers on the mound. We can see here than very few probabilities are over.700. Arraez and Bichette are the unanimous double down choices.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 27, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Kremer of the Orioles owns low walks and strikeout rates, leading to lots of balls in play and 63 hits in 52 2/3 innings. The Rangers sport a number of high batting average. Duran combines that with a relatively low OBP, so his hit average is the highest on the team. Meneses sports similar stats, with a .315/.353 BA/OBA in his brief major league career.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.324, 0.736 — Joey Meneses batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.275, 0.717 — Bo Bichette batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.293, 0.711 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Garrett Whitlock.
  • 0.213, 0.705 — Luis Arraez batting against Shohei Ohtani.
  • 0.304, 0.703 — Nathaniel Lowe batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.297, 0.700 — Luis Garcia batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.304, 0.692 — Ezequiel Duran batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.260, 0.692 — Freddie Freeman batting against Tyler Glasnow.
  • 0.300, 0.688 — Leody Taveras batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.269, 0.686 — Nick Castellanos batting against Charlie Morton.

It takes a pitcher as good as Ohtani to knock Arraez off the top of the list. Meneses ranks as the unanimous top pick. Nathaniel Lowe comes in as the consensus double down choice, but it seems you can’t go wrong with any of the Rangers.

May 21, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

The Blue Jays should look good against Kremer. He sports low K and BB rates, so teams put the ball in play against him. Those balls find holes as he owns a .322 opposition BABIP. In addition, he allowed eight home runs in 47 1/3 innings.

Kiermaier shows up as he is hitting well above his career averages this season, and my formula for Log5 weighs the current season evenly with the three latest seasons.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.315, 0.755 — Luis Arraez batting against Alex Wood.
  • 0.330, 0.738 — Bo Bichette batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.297, 0.704 — Ronald Acuna batting against George Kirby.
  • 0.270, 0.702 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.302, 0.701 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.280, 0.699 — Nico Hoerner batting against Taijuan Walker.
  • 0.280, 0.699 — Joey Meneses batting against Joey Wentz.
  • 0.297, 0.693 — Ezequiel Duran batting against Connor Seabold.
  • 0.271, 0.691 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Roansy Contreras.
  • 0.299, 0.690 — Kevin Kiermaier batting against Dean Kremer.

This is a similar list, with Bichette and Arraez flipped. They are the consensus double down choices for today, and their probability of getting a hit far exceeds everyone else on the list.

Note that Guerrero holds a much better history against Kremer than Bichette. Guerrero stands 6 for 16 with a double, four home runs, two walks, and three strikeouts. Bichette is 2 for 14 with four walks and three K.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 10, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Kremer sports a low walk rate and a low strikeout rate, just the type of pitcher who should be hittable. He allowed .308 BA so far this season, giving up 44 hits in 35 2/3 innings. Franco is not exactly a walk machine, so he puts the ball in play decently well with a high batting average.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.281, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting against Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.312, 0.722 — Harold Ramirez batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.313, 0.716 — Wander Franco batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.280, 0.713 — Bo Bichette batting against Zack Wheeler.
  • 0.295, 0.708 — Nick Castellanos batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.272, 0.703 — Tim Anderson batting against Brad Keller.
  • 0.283, 0.702 — Trea Turner batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.290, 0.698 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.278, 0.696 — Nico Hoerner batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.294, 0.696 — Ronald Acuna batting against Brayan Bello.

Arraez once again tops this list. He owns the longest current hit streak in the majors at twelve games. Note that he slowed down a bit, hitting .386 in the streak as his batting average for the season stands at .408. Kelly is tough to hit, allowing just 28 hits in 39 1/3 innings. Kelly is the opposite of Kremer, walking and striking out a good number of batters, and the players who do put the ball in play against him find gloves.

Franco and Ramirez tie for the consensus double down picks. This is a tough choice. Do you want the best hitter in the game against a good pitcher, or a really good hitter against a pitcher who is hittable? Whatever your decision, get your picks in early as there are a number of afternoon games on Wednesday.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 18, 2022

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

In a pitching match-up of opposites, Bailey Falter of the Phillies takes on Spencer Strider of the Braves. Falter gives up power, as 29 of the 66 hits against him went for extra bases. With a .299 OBP allowed, however, only eight of those extra-base hits came with men on base. Strider makes no trade offs, as his .257 opposition OBP is just below his .266 slugging average allowed. On the other hand, sixteen of his 24 extra-base hits allowed came with runners on base.

The Blue Jays go for a sweep of the Orioles as Toronto endeavors to make the pre-season pundits correct and win the AL East. Dean Kremer takes on Alek Manoah. In his brief career, Kremer allowed seven home runs to the Blue Jays in 22 2/3 innings, but only one this season in 12 1/3 innings. Manoah overall pitched well against Baltimore, but has allowed six home runs in 41 innings.

The Padres send Yu Darvish against the Diamondbacks and Ryne Nelson. While this might not be Darvish’s best season in terms of ERA, his trade off for fewer strikeouts to reduce his walk and home run rates worked well. Despite the lower K rate compared to his early career, his hits allowed stayed low. Nelson makes his third start, and has yet to allow a run. He walked two, one intentional, and struck out 13 in 13 innings.

Enjoy!

September 7, 2022

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Twins and Yankees play a double header, with game two featuring the best pitching match-up. Joe Ryan battles Gerrit Cole. Ryan does a good job of keeping batters off base, allowing a .293 OBP. Forty seven of his one hundred hits allowed this season, however, went for extra bases. Cole comes off an August in which the Yankees offensive slump hurt his record. He allowed a 3.20 ERA, but only had a 1-4 record to show for that.

The White Sox and Mariners play the rubber game of their series with Michael Kopech taking on Luis Castillo. Kopech’s ERA is good at 3.58, but his three-true outcomes are not. He walked 55 batters in 110 2/3 innings, for example. He has managed to hold opponents to a .152 BA with runners in scoring position. Castillo pitched well for both the Reds and Mariners, allowing just 94 hits in 122 2/3 innings.

The Blue Jays try to take three of four from the Orioles as Alek Manoah faces Dean Kremer in Baltimore. The Orioles give Manoah a bit of trouble, as his ERA stands at 3.55 against them. Kremer cut down on home runs from last year, allowing just seven in 89 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

August 27, 2022

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Angels and Blue Jays get things started as Shohei Ohtani takes on Alek Manoah. Ohtani improved on his pitching performance from 2021, mainly by reducing good contract. His line drive percentage is down 1 1/2 points, and that’s leading to more balls on the ground. Manoah improved his already good control over his rookie season. In 37 more innings he allowed three fewer walks.

Dustin May makes his second start after Tommy John surgery and faces Sandy Alcantara as the Dodgers continue their series in Miami. May pitched five shutout innings against the Marlins in his 2022 debut, and now owns a 2.81 ERA in 118 2/3 MLB innings. Alcantara got knocked around by the Dodgers his last time out, allowing six runs in 3 2/3 innings. That was easily his roughest start of the season.

The Orioles continue to impress as Dean Kremer takes on the Astros and Jose Urquidy. Kremer may be helped by the reconfiguration of Camden Yards. Last season he allowed 13 of his 17 home runs at home. This season he allowed three of his seven home runs at home. Urquidy is pretty much repeating his 2021 season, but with more innings. He went 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA last year, 12-4 with a 3.63 ERA this year.

Enjoy!

August 16, 2022

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Jeffrey Springs to the mound for the Rays as they take on the Yankees and Nestor Cortes. Springs owns a 2.56 ERA. As a starter, his ERA stands at 2.92, and he has not allowed a run as a reliever. He’s walked 18 and struck out 91. Cortes is undefeated at home with a 4-0 record in nine starts with a 2.06 ERA.

The Orioles send Dean Kremer against the Blue Jays and Alek Manoah. Kremer owns a reverse platoon difference this season. The righty allows a .250 BA to left-handed batters, .305 versus right-handed batters. In 25 1/3 more innings this season, Manoah allowed the same number of home runs as last season, 12, and walked nine fewer batters.

Finally, two Cy Young candidates face off in Chicago as Justin Verlander leads the Astros against Dylan Cease and the White Sox. Both bring in ERAs under 2.00. Despite age and injuries, Verlander remains quite indefatigable. He averages 6.5 innings per start, due in part to opponents owning a meager .232 OPB against him. Cease desisted in allowing home runs, going from 1.1 per 9 IP in 2021 to 0.7 per 9 IP this season.

Enjoy!

August 11, 2022

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Rangers and Astros finish their series with Cole Ragans taking on Framber Valdez. Ragans got off to a good start with five scoreless innings in his MLB debut. He did walk four, however. Valdez goes for his eleventh win, which would tie his career season high from 2021. Valdez pitched 1/3 of an inning more than in 2021, and reduced his hits allowed by three, his home runs allowed by five, and his walks by ten.

The Orioles visit the Red Sox with Baltimore ahead in the division. Dean Kremer takes on Josh Winckowski. Kremer pitched about the same number of innings as last season, but reduced his home runs and walks by eleven. That dropped his ERA over four runs. The rookie Winckowski received a decision in each of his starts, going 5-5 with 4.68 ERA. He is a low walk, low strikeout pitcher, so it’s not surprising that he allowed a .289 BA this season.

Enjoy!

August 10, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

The Blue Jays keep matching up well against the Orioles pitchers, but Baltimore won the first two games of the series. Kremer is a low walk, low strikeout pitcher, so the Blue Jays should be able to put the ball in play.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.300, 0.731 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jose Quintana.
  • 0.312, 0.728 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.318, 0.725 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.298, 0.724 — Luis Robert batting against Kris Bubic.
  • 0.312, 0.716 — Harold Castro batting against Aaron Civale.
  • 0.265, 0.709 — Trea Turner batting against Sonny Gray.
  • 0.267, 0.707 — Luis Arraez batting against Ryan Pepiot.
  • 0.298, 0.703 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.298, 0.701 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.299, 0.701 — Raimel Tapia batting against Dean Kremer.

Iglesias is 9 for 37 against Quintana with no walks and four strikeouts. So Iglesias does put the ball in play, but his results are not outstanding. Goldschmidt and Gurriel tie for the consensus top pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 24, 2022

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Yankees and Orioles play the rubber game of their series with Nestor Cortes facing Dean Kremer. Cortes appears to take advantage of the deep left-center field in Yankee Stadium. He allowed three home runs there in 47 1/3 innings, ten at home in 48 1/3 innings. Kremer allowed seventeen home runs in 53 2/3 innings in 2021, good for a 7.55 ERA. He got that under control this season, with three home runs allowed in 41 2/3 innings, dropping his ERA nearly five runs.

Shane Bieber and the Guardians face Dylan Cease and the White Sox in Chicago. Bieber’s K rate is down this season, but so are his walk and home run rates. That even things out as he owns a 3.24 ERA this season compared to 3.17 in 2021. Cease recorded almost twice as many strikeouts as hits this year, 150 to 76.

The Astros go for a sweep of the Mariners as Framber Valdez takes on Robbie Ray. Valdez, with 43 walks in 115 IP seems to use the base on balls defensively. With runners in scoring position, he allows a .293 OBP, but just a .159 batting average. Only two of his walks came with the bases loaded, as he pitches around the better hitters. Ray, unlike many other pitchers, did not see a much of a drop in his home run rate this season. He allowed 1.4 HR per 9 IP, 1.5 HR per 9 IP last season. With his K rate down and his walk rate up, his ERA rose 0.7 runs.

Enjoy!

July 9, 2022

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Patrick Sandoval leads the Angels against the Orioles and Dean Kremer. Sandoval sits seventeen innings short of his total from 2021, but reduced his home runs allowed from eleven to four. That helped him reduce his ERA by half a run. Kremer finds success in his seasonal age 26 season by reducing both his walks and home runs. He allows the ball to be put in play, but he’s limiting damage by limiting batters to a .347 slugging percentage.

Devin Smeltzer takes on Martin Perez as the Twins continue their series with the Rangers. Both pitchers give up hits with few walks, but the difference in their ERA comes from Perez doing a better job of limiting power.

The Giants send Carlos Rodon against the Padres and Yu Darvish. Rodon excels at all three true outcomes, with four home runs allowed, thirty walks, and 112 strikeouts in 91 innings. Darvish owns a 1.75 ERA at home this season, where he allowed just two fo of the nine home runs hit against him.

Finally, the Blue Jays battle the Mariners with Alek Manoah and Robbie Ray on the mound. Manoah switched the number on his ERA this season, going from 3.22 to 2.33. He cut his walks allowed nearly in half compared to his rookie season. Ray follows up his Cy Young season with a dip in his K rate and an increase in his BB rate, but he still leads the league in innings.

Enjoy!