Tag Archives: Joe Ross

February 19, 2025

Changes, Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

Max Kepler, leftfielder
Jesus Luzardo, starting pitcher
Jordan Romano, closer
Joe Ross, relief pitcher

The Phillies won the NL East and decided to mostly stand pat. Over the years, a lot of Kepler’s value came from his defense, but even that slipped recently. He will be in leftfield instead of center, however, so that may help his defense, since he’ll won’t have to catch every ball he could possibly catch.

Luzardo slots in as the fifth starter in the rotation. He followed up a 178 2/3 innings season in 2023 with on 66 2/3 innings in 2024 due to injury. He says he is healthy. If the Phillies can get 140 innings from him as a fifth starter that would be great.

Romano is also coming off an injury plagued season, undergoing elbow surgery. He is a high K, low home run pitcher when healthy.

Joe Ross will fill the swing man role, mopping up in blow outs and occasionally starting. In his good years, he keeps the ball in the park, in bad years he gives up a ton of homers.

The Phillies have a solid team, so these moves are more tweaks that than anything. Good recoveries by Luzardo and Romano will tell if the moves were successful.

April 9, 2021

Games of the Day

The depleted Nationals travel to Los Angeles for the Dodgers home opener, a match-up of the last two World Series winners. Joe Ross faces Walker Buehler. In four games, the Dodgers pummeled Ross, collecting twenty two hits in 16 2/3 innings, scoring 14 runs. Buehler owns a 3.38 ERA against the Nationals, but has just an 0-1 record in three games to show for it.

Julio Teheran takes on Zach Plesac as the Tigers visit the Indians. Teheran allowed a solo home run in his first start of the season, the only run he allowed. He allowed 16 home runs in 31 1/3 innings in 2020. Plesac now has 30 MLB starts, over three seasons. His 3.31 ERA with a 12-9 record is a nice start to his career.

Enjoy!

June 29, 2020

The First Opt-Outs

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Mike Leake of the Diamondbacks, Joe Ross of the Nationals, and Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals are the first players to opt-out of playing in 2020 due to COVID-19. Ross and Zimmerman will not be paid, since they are not high-risk individuals. Leake’s status is to be determined.

As of now, players who are not high risk and opt out surrender their 2020 salaries and service time by sitting out. Under the March agreement between MLB and the players union, which pays players prorated salaries based on games played (roughly 37 percent for a 60-game season), a “high-risk” player who opts out can later change his mind if the team physician and an MLB joint committee approve. Any other player who opts out cannot return for any of the 2020 season or postseason, though the union is trying to get that changed.
TheAthletic.com

October 27, 2019

Ross Alright

Joe Ross walks George Springer to start game five of the 2019 World Series. He then gets a ground double play and a ground ball into the shift to end the inning. Both plate appearances by Springer and Michael Brantley demonstrated the ability of the Astros to lay off pitches. Ross threw pitches just off the edges of the plate that were called balls. Most batters would have found those pitches to close to take, but both batters got the calls.

There’s no score as the Nationals come to bat in the bottom of the first.

Update: Gerrit Cole retires the Nationals in order with a strikeout and two fly balls. There’s no score after one inning.

October 27, 2019

Playoffs Today Update

Joe Ross gets the start in game five of the World Series for the Nationals after neck spasms sidelined Max Scherzer. Ross split time between the rotation and the bullpen this season, and pitched better as a starter. He ended the season with eight starts in a row, posting a 2.75 ERA in that span. He controlled the home run ball down the stretch, giving up two long balls in 39 1/3 innings. In his previous 24 2/3 innings in 2019, he allowed five home runs.

October 27, 2019

Scherzer Scratched

Max Scherzer will not start game five of the World Series for the Nationals:

Nationals manager Dave Martinez announced that starter Max Scherzer was scratched from his Game 5 start against the Houston Astros because of spasms in his upper right trapezoid.

Righty Joe Ross will take Scherzer’s place and will face Astros ace Gerrit Cole. The Nationals and Astros enter Sunday night’s game tied at two games apiece.

“He’s really upset about this,” Martinez said, adding that the normally animated Scherzer was “very quiet.”
ESPN.com

I’m sure the story is accurate, but there might be a small probability that the Nationals want Scherzer pitching in Houston. My earlier post on game five showed that Scherzer does pitch better on the road. Plus, do they really want game seven coming down to Anibal Sanchez?

September 2, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.323 — Jeff McNeil batting against Joe Ross.
0.317 — Luis Arraez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.311 — Donovan Solano batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.310 — Justin Turner batting against Peter Lambert.
0.308 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.307 — Matt Beaty batting against Peter Lambert.
0.307 — Eric Hosmer batting against Mike Leake.
0.307 — Corey Dickerson batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.304 — Jorge Polanco batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.304 — Tyler Naquin batting against Ross Detwiler.
0.304 — Francisco Lindor batting against Ross Detwiler.
0.304 — David Freese batting against Peter Lambert.

It’s possible the predicted hit average by McNeil versus Ross is an overestimate. Ross allowed just 18 hits in his last 25 2/3 innings covering five starts.

Here are the neural network picks:

0.323, 0.757 — Jeff McNeil batting against Joe Ross.
0.303, 0.745 — Howie Kendrick batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.297, 0.736 — Michael Brantley batting against Adrian Houser.
0.311, 0.729 — Donovan Solano batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.317, 0.729 — Luis Arraez batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.293, 0.728 — Anthony Rendon batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.308, 0.726 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.300, 0.725 — Wilson Ramos batting against Joe Ross.
0.288, 0.723 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Adrian Houser.

McNeil is the unanimous first pick. Solano and Arrez are tied for the consensus second pick.

Wilson Ramos tries to extend his 25-game hit streak. He hit the Nationals very well since leaving the team.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 2, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.336 — Ketel Marte batting against Joe Ross.
0.324 — David Peralta batting against Joe Ross.
0.321 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Shaun Anderson.
0.321 — Jean Segura batting against Ivan Nova.
0.321 — Donovan Solano batting against Peter Lambert.
0.319 — Jeff McNeil batting against Trevor Williams.
0.314 — Adam Jones batting against Joe Ross.
0.314 — Michael Brantley batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.314 — Luis Arraez batting against Glenn Sparkman.
0.311 — Wilmer Flores batting against Joe Ross.

It’s a rare Friday with an incomplete schedule as only thirteen games are on tap today. Log5 favors the Diamondbacks against Joe Ross. Ross allowed a .361/.444/.593 slash line so far this season, and he’s still being regressed to the league average quite a bit.

Here are the neural network picks:

0.319, 0.757 — Jeff McNeil batting against Trevor Williams.
0.321, 0.748 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Shaun Anderson.
0.314, 0.739 — Michael Brantley batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.336, 0.737 — Ketel Marte batting against Joe Ross.
0.321, 0.736 — Jean Segura batting against Ivan Nova.
0.306, 0.734 — Jose Altuve batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.324, 0.730 — David Peralta batting against Joe Ross.
0.308, 0.729 — Melky Cabrera batting against Steven Matz.
0.310, 0.727 — Eddie Rosario batting against Glenn Sparkman.
0.300, 0.726 — Daniel Murphy batting against Shaun Anderson.
0.303, 0.726 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Yusei Kikuchi.

Pitchers count for less on the NN side of things, so McNeil is number one again here. Marte and Blackmon are tied for the consensus first pick. Gurriel’s long hit streak ended Thrusday night, so maybe he’s primed to start another one.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 28, 2018

Games of the Day

The Cardinals and Cubs both need a win as they play Friday afternoon. The Cardinals are trying to stay alive in the wild card race, while the Cubs are trying to lock down the NL Central title. Adam Wainwright takes on Kyle Hendricks. This may be Wainwright’s last start for the Cardinals. In his career with the team he is 15-9 in 44 appearances against the Cubs with a 3.94 ERA. Hendricks is finishing the season strong with a 1.67 ERA in five September starts. He walked four and struck out 28 in 32 1/3 innings in that time.

Washington sends Joe Ross against potential Cy Young candidate Kyle Freeland and the Rockies. A Colorado win and a Cardinals loss puts the Rockies in the playoffs. Ross struck out just three in 11 innings since returning from Tommy John surgery. He has yet to allow a home run, however. Freeland is 9-2 in Denver with a 2.36 ERA this season.

Finally, the Dodgers send Hyun-Jin Ryu against the Giants and Madison Bumgarner. Ryu held the Giants to two runs in 11 2/3 innings this season. Bumgarner allowed three home runs and six walks in 12 innings against the Dodgers.

Enjoy!

P.S. The best outcome for a potential three-way tie in the Wild West Race would be for the Cardinals to win and the Rockies to lose. If that happens, the Dodgers game can go either way.

July 4, 2017

Games of the Day

The Mets and Nationals play the annual July 4th morning game in Washington with Seth Lugo taking on Joe Ross. Washington won eight of the eleven games against the Mets this season. Lugo pitched well since joining the rotation in early June, 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA. His strength is limiting power, as just seven of his 26 hits allowed went for extra bases. Ross has not fared as well in the power department. So far he allowed 13 home runs in 63 1/3 innings, and 30 of his 77 hits allowed went for extra bases.

I like that the Nationals copied the Red Sox patriotic holiday idea. Given that the Declaration of Independence was signed in Philadelphia, I’m surprised the Phillies didn’t adopt special game time.

CC Sabathia returns to the mound as the Yankees host the Blue Jays and J.A. Happ. Happ is showing great control this season with 51 K and just nine walks in 51 innings. The eight home runs he allowed hurt, however, as three of them came with men on base. Sabathia is having his best season since 2012. His Yankee Stadium ERA is high at 4.60, but he is 3-0 there. Sabathia is averaging 5 2/3 innings per start, as the Yankees pull him before he gets in trouble.

Trevor Cahill faces Corey Kluber as the Padres play the Indians. Cahill is blowing away batters and keeping the ball in the park with 51 K in 41 1/3 innings, with just three home runs allowed. That allows him to get away with a good, but not great, walk rate. Kluber struck out at least ten batters in his last four start and five of six since returning from the disable list.

Finally, Brad Peacock leads the Astros against the Braves and rookie Sean Newcomb. Peakcock split time this season between the rotation and the bullpen. Most pitchers see their K rate go down a bit as a starter, but Peacock struck out 12.1 batters per 9 IP in relief, 13.8 batters per 9 IP as a starter. Newcomb is off to a good career with a 1.48 ERA after four starts. So far he is holding opponents to a .202/.265/.292 slash line. His weakness in the minors was his walk rate, but so far he is in control in the majors.

Enjoy!

June 29, 2017

Games of the Day

Thursday starts with a good match-up as Andrew Cashner leads the Rangers against the Indians and Corey Kluber. Among pitchers with at least 65 IP, Cashner ranks sixth in the majors in HR allowed per nine inning pitched. All five he allowed came at home. Kluber is very good at keeping the ball in the park as well, and only two of his seven home runs allowed came at home.

MLB Network brings you the Cubs at the Nationals at 4 PM. Jon Lester takes on Joe Ross. Lester allows a batting average nearly 100 points higher on the road than at home, .304 away versus .205 in Chicago. Ross strikes out a high number of batters and walks few, but allowed 12 home runs in 56 2/3 innings, and a ton of hits. He may be a pitcher that is in the strike zone too much. He is in the zone 47% of the time, which is above the league average of 44.7%.

Finally, the Dodgers try to earn a split in the home and home series against the Angels. Clayton Kershaw takes on J.C. Ramirez. Kershaw is locked in a tight race for the NL Cy Young Award with Max Scherzer. Scherzer leads in Tom Tango Cy Young Points, but Kershaw leads in Season Score. Ramirez had a good May, posting a 2.67 ERA. He upped his strikeouts in June, but his hits allowed went up as well, leading to a 6.84 ERA for the month.

Enjoy!

October 13, 2016

The Long Diagnosis

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It took most of the baseball season, but doctors reached an opinion on what was wrong with Tyson Ross’s shoulder:

After starting opening day and then missing the rest of 2016, the Padres right-hander is scheduled to undergo surgery in St. Louis to deal with symptoms of thoracic outlet syndrome, manager Andy Green said.

…

Ross spent a number of weeks traveling around the country to obtain medical opinions from different doctors. After conferencing with multiple specialists and team physicians, Ross and the Padres determined surgery was the best course of action.

Should the procedure work, it would fix what became a mysterious, season-long problem. In July, Ross was nearing a rehab assignment when he suffered a fluke setback, spraining an ankle in a hotel room. He worked his way back to one rehab game with High Single-A Lake Elsinore in late August, but he was waylaid by further shoulder discomfort.

I hope it works. He should be ready for spring training.

Correction: Had the wrong Ross brother.

October 11, 2016

Playoffs Today, Take Two

The Nationals and Dodgers made their choices, and Joe Ross takes the ball for Washington against Clayton Kershaw. In terms of three-true outcomes, Ross did everything well in 2016. He struck out 93 in 105 innings with 29 walks and nine home runs. All those numbers are good, none of them are outstanding. He only pitched 9 2/3 innings after coming back from an injury, but struck out 14.

The Kershaw gambit is the interesting one. The other choice, Julio Urias, is quite a bit like Joe Ross. So if it is Urias and Ross, the Dodgers probably have a 50/50 chance of winning game four. Then Kershaw and Max Scherzer face off Thursday. Those two pitchers are also comparable, so there is a 50/50 chance of the Dodgers winning game five, or a 25% chance of the Dodgers winning the series. Normally, I’d say there is an 80% chance of Kershaw beating Ross, and assuming Rich Hill pitches Thursday, a 60% chance of Scherzer winning that game. So that gives the Dodgers a 32% chance of winning the series. I don’t think Kershaw has an 80% chance of beating Ross today. If that probability is 60% in Kershaw’s favor, then the Dodgers would be better off waiting the extra two days. Kershaw started game one strong, striking out the first three batters he faced. After that, the Nationals started putting men on base, collecting eight hits in five innings. The Dodgers bullpen is stretched thin after yesterday, and they can’t expect Kershaw to go deep in the game.

I suspect the Dodgers have a much better grasp of the probabilities than I do, but I’d rather have two 50/50 chances to win, than a 60% of losing game five.

The Cubs try to stop the Giants streak of winning elimination games as John Lackey faces Matt Moore. Lackey pitched well down the stretch, with a 2.34 ERA in his last nine starts. He did show some control issues toward the end of the season, with nine walks in his last four starts. Moore had a rough time overall with the Giants, but seemed to put things together in his last two starts, striking out 17 in 15 2/3 innings and walking just two.

Enjoy!

September 24, 2016

Games of the Day

The Cardinals may get a bit of an easier chance to win today, as the Cubs clinched NL home field when the Nationals lost Friday night. Alex Reyes takes on Jason Hammel. Reyes is fairly typical of the Cardinals farm system. He comes to the majors striking out a ton of batters, 40 in his first 35 innings, and allowing just one home run. His walks are a bit high, but the other two legs of the three-true outcome stool compensate for that. Hammel needs 14 more innings to up his single season high. Since the Cubs have nothing left to play for in the regular season, he might not get there as Maddon is likely to give his starters light workouts to keep them fresh.

Once again the Nationals can clinch the NL East with a win against Pittsburgh and a Mets loss. They are also fighting off the Dodgers for the right to host the NLDS. Joe Ross takes on Ivan Nova. Ross makes his second start since returning from a shoulder injury. He pitched well in the first, walking none and striking out five in six innings, in a start shortened by rain. Nova’s ERA with the Pirates is two runs lower than it was with the Yankees. He only walked three batters in 55 1/3 innings. The Pirates coaches are very good at getting wild pitchers under control.

Finally, the Dodgers can clinch the NL West with a win and a Giants loss as the Rockies send Chad Bettis against Clayton Kershaw. Bettis is the rare pitcher who performs worse on the road than he does at Coors Field. He allowed 15 of his 21 home runs away from Colorado. Kershaw’s rehabilitation appears to have worked. In three starts since returning from the disabled list, his ERA is 1.29 in 14 innings, with one walk and seventeen strikeouts.

Enjoy!

June 27, 2016

Game of the Day

The Mets trail the Nationals by three games as the teams open a three-game series in Washington. Noah Syndergaard takes on Joe Ross in game one. Syndergaard post great three-true outcome rates, outstanding in strikeouts, home runs allowed, and walks allowed. On top to that, he holds down other hits as well, with batters producing a .231 BA against him. Ross owns a high ERA in June, 5.01, despite good walk and strikeout numbers. Opponents hit .353/.378/.471 against him with runners on base in the month.

June 17, 2016

Games of the Day

Francisco Liriano face Jake Arrieta as the Pirates try to gain on the Cubs. Liriano’s ERA is up more than a run and a half as opponents are pounding him with home runs. He allowed 15 HR in 186 2/3 innings in 2015. So far this season, he allowed 13 HR in just 67 2/3 innings. Arrieta goes for his 11th win after his first loss since 7/25/2015. In the last calendar year, he is 26-2 with a 1.23 ERA in 33 starts.

The White Sox send Jose Quintana against the Indians and Trevor Bauer. Quintana pitched to some bad luck this year, with a 5-7 record and a 2.66 ERA. He struck out 44 and allowed just one home run in 42 1/3 innings on the road. Bauer owns a 4.75 ERA at home. He allowed four of his six home runs in Cleveland.

The Giants, who were once supposed to move to Tampa Bay, try to beat the Rays with Jeff Samardzija. Chris Archer takes the hill for the Rays. Samardzija pitched well in his two career starts against the Rays, but did not get a decision. Archer is giving up home runs at a prodigious rate, 15 in his first 80 innings. He allowed 19 home runs in 212 innings last season.

Finally, Joe Ross battles Christian Friedrich as the Nationals face the Padres. Ross is not suffering a sophomore slump, as he has a lower ERA than his 2015 rookie season. After this start, his IP should be about the same as 2015, and his three-true outcomes are right in line with last season as well. Friedrich currently owns an ERA three runs below his career average. The move from Colorado to San Diego seemed to help.

Enjoy!

June 7, 2016

Games of the Day

The Nationals travel to Chicago to play the White Sox, both team involved in close division races. Joe Ross faces Mat Latos. Ross owns an excellent 2.37 ERA overall, but away from Washington he allows a 1.54 ERA, allowing one home run in 35 innings. Latos pitched as poorly in May as he did great in April. The first month of the season saw him post a 1.84 ERA. That rose to 6.41 during May. More walks, hits, and strikeouts led to much more scoring.

First place teams battle on the west coast in another interleague duel. Rick Porcello leads the Red Sox against the Giants and Albert Suarez. Porcello may be getting too much of the plate lately. In his last two starts, he walks just one batter in 12 2/3 innings, but allowed four home runs. Suarez makes his second start and seventh appearance. The true rookie has yet to allow a home run, having pitched 17 innings. The Red Sox will challenge that number.

Enjoy!

May 31, 2016

Games of the Day

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Joe Ross leads the Nationals against Aaron Nola and the Phillies. Ross owns a 1.61 ERA on the road this season, where he allowed just one of his four home runs. Nola does a good job of keeping the ball in the park also, with just five home runs allowed this season.

In the battle of the initials, the Yankees send CC Sabathia against J.A. Happ and the Blue Jays. Sabathia continues the home run theme. He’s one of two pitchers with at least 40 IP to allow just one home run. Happ makes his third start against the Yankees, with a 2-0 record and 1.38 ERA.

Gerrit Cole and Jose Fernandez do battle as the Pirates play the Marlins. Cole is 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA on the road, thanks to just 26 hits and seven walks in 30 2/3 innings. Fernandez makes his 11th start of the season, matching his total from last year after returning from Tommy John surgery. He struck out 79 in those 11 starts; he’s already struck out 90 this season in four fewer innings.

Finally Scott Kazmir takes on Jake Arrieta, as the Dodgers try to even the series with the Cubs. Kazmir’s home run rate nearly doubled compared to last year, raising his ERA 1.74 runs. Arrieta tries for 10 wins in two months without a loss. He’s allowed just one run in night games this season, and just eight hits in 30 innings.

Enjoy!

May 21, 2016

Games of the Day

Saturday presents slim pickings for pitching match-ups. The Royals try to gain another game on the White Sox as Danny Duffy takes on Miguel Gonzalez. Duffy pitched mostly out of the bullpen this season, and makes his second start. He owns 26 strikeouts in 21 innings, with just one home run allowed. Gonzalez does not go deep in games, with just 15 2/3 innings in three starts. With ten walks and 11 hits allowed, it’s not surprising his ERA is over 5.00.

The red hot Indians continue their series with the Red Sox. Trevor Bauer takes the mound for Cleveland against Joe Kelly. Bauer makes his fifth start after six relief appearances. As a starter he owns a 3.47 ERA this season, with 23 K in 23 1/3 innings. The big story for the Red Sox continues to be Jackie Bradley, Jr., whose hitting streak stands at 25 games. Bradley is hitting way above his career averages for the season, and in the streak owns a .409/.471/.806 slash line with eight home runs and 29 RBI. His teammate, Xander Bogaerts is the current runner up at with a 14 games streak. Along with Mookie Betts, this trio is turning into a group of Killer Bees.

Finally, the only good pitching match-up of the day takes place in Miami, where Joe Ross battles Jose Fernandez. The Nationals offense came to life in the last few games, and Ross hopes to get support for his 2.63 ERA so he can improve on his 3-3 record. He’s allowed just two home runs in 41 innings. Fernandez put a rough April behind him. In may, his high strikeout rate finally started reducing hits allowed, and he’s 3-0 this month with a 1.89 ERA.

Enjoy!

May 15, 2016

Games of the Day

Tyler Duffey and Trevor Bauer square-off in Cleveland as the Twins go for their fourth road win of the season. Duffey holds an 0-2 record in three starts despite pitching well. He struck out 17 in 17 1/3 innings with just four walks, good for a 2.60 ERA. Bauer is still a bit wild, but he’s had good luck with runners in scoring position so far this season.

Jose Fernandez and the Marlins try to gain on the first-place Nationals. Joe Ross takes the hill for Washington. Fernandez is another good pitcher suffering from early season wildness. He walked 20 batters this season in 40 2/3 innings after walking 27 batters in 116 1/3 innings in his previous two seasons around his Tommy John surgery. Ross comes in with a 3-2 record despite a 2.29 ERA. He’s allowed just one home run in 35 1/3 innings.

The match-up between Gerrit Cole of the Pirates and Jon Lester of the Cubs says a lot about those two teams. Cole holds the ace position in the Pirates rotation, Leter would be an ace on most teams other than the Cubs. (You can even make an argument (although I would not) that Lester is the number three starter on the Cubs this season.) Cole’s ERA is almost two runs higher than Lester’s ERA, however.

By the way, while the Pirates the last few year have been known for getting a lot more out of pitchers than expected, their coaching doesn’t seem to be working this year.

Finally, Jacob deGrom battles Tyler Chatwood as the Mets face Colorado. The Rockies will try to go deep against deGrom, who allowed just one home run this season. The Rockies boast two of the top home run hitters in the NL, as do the Mets. All five home runs Chatwood allowed came in his home starts.

Enjoy!

May 5, 2016

Games of the Day

Masahiro Tanaka tries to right the Yankees ship as he faces the Orioles and Kevin Gausman. Tanaka is pitching well in all three dimensions of the three-true outcomes, but the Yankees score three runs or less in four of his five starts. Gausman owns a 2.79 career ERA against the Yankees, with 35 strikeouts and just eight walks in 38 2/3 innings.

The Rangers send Derek Holland against the Blue Jays and J.A. Happ as those teams conclude their series. Home runs hurt Holland when he returned from the disabled list in 2015, giving up 11 in 58 2/3 innings. In half that amount of innings this season, he only allowed two homers. Happ allowed 31 hits so far in 32 2/3 innings, but he walks just nine batters, and ten of his 11 extra base hits allowed came with the bases empty.

Finally, first place teams collide as the Nationals open a series with the Cubs in Chicago. Joe Ross battles Kyle Hendricks. Ross has yet to allow a home run in 22 2/3 innings this season, helping him to an 0.79 ERA. Hendricks allowed one home run, and walked just four in 23 innings. The big difference between the two is Ross’s .091 BA allowed with runners in scoring position compare to a .286 mark for Hendricks.

Enjoy!

April 30, 2016

The Parallel Continues

Jordan Zimmermann, and his Nationals replacement Joe Ross continued their parallel successes on Saturday. Zimmermann’s April might make Nationals fans believe the team made a mistake letting him go to the Tigers via free agency. Zimmermann held the Twins to one run in seven innings, walking none and striking out seven, but allowing his first home run of the season. That outing left him with a 0.55 ERA for the season.

Meanwhile, Ross allowed the Cardinals just one run in six innings to bring his ERA to 0.79. His walks and strike outs were not as good as Zimmermann’s, walking two and striking out four. Ross, however, has yet to allow a home run.

Both are undefeated. Nationals fans should be happy, however, since Ross is seasonal age 23, and Zimmermann plays 2016 as a 30-year-old. There’s a lot more upside with Ross.

April 30, 2016

Games of the Day

Saturday features two early afternoon games with great pitching match ups. The Tigers and Twins start the day with Jordan Zimmermann trying to extend his record to 5-0 against Tyler Duffey. Zimmermann allowed three runs, one earned, in 26 innings so far this season. After allowing 24 home runs in 2015, his high for a season, he’s yet to give up a long ball in 2016. He struck out just 16 batters so far, so the Twins batters might find some holes with balls in play. Duffey made a short start in his first of the season, but in his short career he owns a 3.05 ERA, striking out 54 batters in 62 innings.

In St. Louis, the Nationals send Joe Ross against Jaime Garcia. Ross serves as the Nationals replacement for Zimmermann, and so far Joe responded with a 0.54 ERA in 16 2/3 innings. He also has not allowed a home run. Garcia strength throughout his career has been his low home run total. In 749 1/3 innings he allowed just 53 homers.

Blue Jays and Rays continue their series in Florida with J.A. Happ taking on Chris Archer. Happ allows his fielders to help him out, walking six and striking out 13 in 26 innings. Archer tamed his wildness in his last start, walking none and striking out 10 in 6 2/3 innings against the tough Orioles offense.

The White Sox and Orioles each stand in first place as Mat Latos battles Kevin Gausman. Latos is another veteran off to a good start in the AL Central. He goes for his fifth win against no losses. His 0.74 ERA is helped a great deal by the White Sox defense, as Latos walked 7 and struck out 13 in 24 1/3 innings. Opponents are putting the ball in play, but they are not getting through for hits. Latos’s FIP is 3.53, so he could be in store for some regression. Gausman pitched well in his first start of the season, walking two and striking out seven in five innings.

Enjoy!

April 10, 2016

Games of the Day

The Orioles are the last undefeated team in the majors. They host Tampa Bay as Jake Odorizzi takes on Vance Worley. Odorizzi got off to a good start in 2016 with 10 strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays. Worley went through the Pittsburgh re-education process and greatly lowered his walk rate. We’ll see if the Orioles can make that stick.

Tom Koehler faces Joe Ross as the Marlins and Nationals play in D.C. Bryce Harper stands at 99 home runs, and has hit more home runs off Koehler than any other pitcher, 5. Ross pitched a solid rookie season, and needs to cut down on his home runs allowed a bit to move to the next level. If he just repeats his averages from 2015, he’ll be a solid fifth starter.

The Dodgers and Giants feature two new-comers to the team as Scott Kazmir and Johnny Cueto make their second starts of the season. Kazmir pitched nearly perfectly against the Padres in his first start, allowing just one hit and no walks. Cueto allowed a run in seven innings, and also kept his walks allowed at zero.

Finally, the Sunday Night Game features Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees battling Justin Verlander and the Tigers. Tanaka faced the Tigers twice in 2015, pitching well in one game and getting hammered in the other. Verlander pitched well in his first start, holding the Marlins to three hits in six innings. The three hits came in the same inning, however, the last a two-run shot by Giancarlo Stanton. Poor timing.

Enjoy!

September 6, 2015

Games of the Day

There’s a good rookie match-up in Washington as the Braves try to end an eleven game losing streak as they send Manny Banuelos against Joe Ross. Banuelos puts men on base, with a .352 opposition OBP. He doesn’t allow much power, which helps keep his ERA in the 3.00s. Ross shows much better control with 68 K and 17 BB in 69 1/3 innings. He’s coming off a poor start versus the Cardinals.

The Twins send Tyler Duffey against the leading AL Cy Young candidate, Dallas Keuchel of the Astros. Duffey’s high ERA is based on a bad first outing. Over his last three starts he allowed four runs in 19 innings. He has a tendency to walk lots of batters, but did strike out eight and walk none against the Orioles. Keuchel allowed just one home run at home this season in 106 2/3 innings. He’s 12-0 in Houston with a 1.35 ERA.

Finally, the Sunday night game features Gerrit Cole and the Pirates taking on John Lackey and the Cardinals. Cole’s ERA rose after the All-Star break, but it may just be bad luck as his three-true outcomes remain strong. Lackey owns a 1.89 ERA in St. Louis this season versus 4.12 on the road. It’s tough to homer against him in St. Louis. In two starts against the Pirates this year, he has no decisions but a 1.42 ERA.

Enjoy!

August 22, 2015

Games of the Day

The Giants send Mike Leake against Gerrit Cole in Pittsburgh.

Rookie of the year candidates battle in Washington as Taylor Jungmann and the Brewers face Joe Ross.

There may not be any runs scored in Houston as the Dodgers and Zack Greinke face Scott Kazmir.

Wild card teams fight in Anaheim as Marco Estrada and the Blue Jays face Andrew Heaney.

Enjoy!

August 11, 2015

Games of the Day

The Yankees try to get back to winning as they send rookie Luis Severino against the Indians and Carlos Carrasco. Severino took the loss in his first start, but walked none and struck out seven in five innings. In about the same number of innings as last season, Carrasco owns seven more strikeouts and one fewer walk. His ERA is over a run higher, however.

The Brewers try to stop the Cubs winning streak as they send rookie Taylor Jungmann against recent arrival Dan Haren. Jungmann allowed just two home runs in 71 2/3 innings, both of those on the road. Haren allowed 23 home runs this season, two of those in his first five innings with the Cubs.

The Pirates visit the Cardinals trailing St. Louis by five games. Jeff Locke faces Carlos Martinez. Locke pitched poorly on the road this season with a 6.43 ERA. He owns a much higher walk rate away compared to home. With a high number of walks, Martinez’s low ERA is surprising. He allowed a .143 BA with runners in scoring position, which goes a long way toward nullifying the walks.

Joe Ross and the Nationals get a tough assignment as they face Zack Greinke and the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Ross made to starts in August so far, walking one and striking out 13 in 12 1/3 innings. Greinke comes off his second worst start of the season. Both of those came on the road, and he owns a 1.54 ERA at home.

Finally Scott Kazmir and Madison Bumgarner battle as the Astros play the Giants. Kazmir has been lights out since joining Houston, with a 0.44 ERA in three starts. In 22 innings against AL teams this season, Bumgarner walked three and struck out 24. He is only 1-2, however.

Enjoy!

August 1, 2015

Games of the Day

Clayton Kershaw gets listed as a starter again as the Dodgers continue their series with the Angels. LAnaheim sends 5-0 Andrew Heaney to the mound. I wonder how many times the Dodgers will scratch Kershaw before he goes on the disabled list?

Joe Ross takes on Jacob deGrom as the Mets try to gain another game on the Nationals. Ross is a rookie, de Grom in his second year, but Jacob is five years older than Ross, making Ross’s upside a bit higher.

Chris Heston and the Giants get the assignment of greeting Cole Hamels to Rangers. Hamels pitched well against the Giants in his career in terms of three-true outcomes, but that has not led to a low ERA.

Enjoy!

July 26, 2015

Games of the Day

Zack Greinke returns from paternity leave to face the Mets and try to extend his scoreless innings streak. Jacob deGrom opposes the Dodgers. Greinke’s streak as opposition batting makes his domination apparent. The opposition owns a .129/.158/.150 slash line, meaning Greinke is causing a large set of major league batters to hit like pitchers. He faced just 14 batters with runners in scoring position and did not allow a hit or a walk. He only faced batters with a man on third base twice! There is no sophomore slump for deGrom, and he improved on his 2014 rookie ERA. He’s allowing more home runs, but putting fewer batters on base.

Joe Ross and Gerrit Cole are two more young pitchers doing well. Ross makes the fifth start of his career, having struck out 27 and walked two in his first 26 2/3 innings. His great start gives the Nationals room to trade Jordan Zimmermann, who will be a free agent at the end of the season, or give up on Doug Fister as a starter. Cole might be a Cy Young candidate in a year that didn’t feature Zack Greinke’s season for the ages. He allowed three runs against the Nationals in two starts, two of the runs coming on solo homers.

Matt Wisler of the Braves is also posting a fine rookie campaign as he faces Michael Wacha of the Cardinals. Wisler owns a 3.60 ERA in six starts, but pitched poorly on the road where he allowed three homers in 15 2/3 innings. Wacha, in about the same number of innings as 2014, has the same 3.20 ERA. He allowed more home runs but fewer base runners. With more support, he’s 11-3 instead of 5-6.

Enjoy!

July 21, 2015

Games of the Day

The Mets and Nationals continue their series with Jacob deGrom facing Joe Ross as a sophomore faces a freshman. deGrom turned in a marvelous career so far, with 256 strikeouts and 64 walks in 254 innings. Ross is also off to a good start to his career, with 23 K and two walks in 20 1/3 innings. He’s just 22 years old.

The Twins get a potential playoff test as they take on the Angels. Kyle Gibson takes on Matt Shoemaker. Gibson is pitching great in July, with an 0.86 ERA in three starts. Shoemaker can’t win at home, 0-6 with a 4.60 ERA, but is 4-1 on the road despite a 5.01 ERA.

Enjoy!