Tag Archives: Baltimore Orioles

December 20, 2025

AL Beast

The Rays and Orioles made a trade to strengthen both teams, the Orioles in the short run and the Rays in the long run:

The Baltimore Orioles acquired right-hander Shane Baz in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, sending a four-prospect package and a draft pick in a rare intradivision deal.

Following a search all winter for starting pitching, the Orioles targeted Baz and paid a heavy price, giving up outfielder Slater de Brun and catcher Caden Bodine — both first-round picks this year — breakout right-hander Michael Forret, outfielder Austin Overn and a competitive-balance Round A pick that comes with more than $2.5 million in slot money, sources said.
ESPN.com

I will say that seems like a lot for a pitcher projected to post a 4.25 ERA at FanGraphs. Musings Marcels projects opponents hitting .234/.308/.400 against him, which is pretty good. If the Orioles can get him to lower his opposition isolated power, he would be much better.

The Rays set themselves up for another run of punctuated greatness. Tampa Bay does not stay down for long as they do a good job of restocking the farm system, and in a couple of years this should look like a very good team again. Bodine plays 2026 as a 22 year old, and could be up soon. de Brun has yet to play professionally at seasonal age 19 in 2026. Forret learned to control his walks in 2025, and his ERA plummeted. Overn gets on base with little power, and is old for his level of the minor leagues. Still, a good OBP is a valuable tool.

Once again, the AL East is stacked. The Rays may take one on the chin this season, but they will not be down for long. Some team has to finish last.

December 10, 2025

Polar South

First baseman Pete Alonso reportedly decided to move south on I-95 to join the Orioles.

First baseman Pete Alonso and the Baltimore Orioles are finalizing a five-year, $155 million contract, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

Alonso, after failing to get the long-term deal that he coveted, made $30 million with the New York Mets in 2025 and was worth every penny as he rebounded to slash .272/.347/.524 with 38 home runs and 126 RBIs, batting behind Juan Soto for the first time. However, the Mets did not make Alonso an offer, sources confirmed to ESPN.
ESPN.com

It another lucrative deal for a free agent. I project Alonso to produce 11.6 fWAR over the life of the contract, which would work out to about $13.4 million per WAR. It seems that after the dollars per WAR stagnated for a long time, maybe the value is starting to rise. It’s about time.

November 30, 2025

Orioles Get a Closer

The Orioles reportedly reached an agreement with relief pitcher Ryan Helsley:

Closer Ryan Helsley and the Baltimore Orioles are in agreement on a two-year, $28 million contract that includes an opt-out after the first season, sources told ESPN, continuing the remaking of Baltimore’s beleaguered pitching staff with one of the most sought-after relievers on the free agent market.

While multiple teams sought to sign Helsley as a starter, the 31-year-old right-hander chose to remain in the role that made him a two-time All-Star and will hand him the ninth inning for the Orioles while retaining the ability to reach the open market after 2026.
ESPN.com

I estimate two and a half WAR for Helsley during the next two seasons, so this is a reasonable contract.

The second paragraph of the above quote is telling. With the Cardinals in 2025, he only faced four batters prior to the ninth inning. White his numbers in the ninth inning were not stellar, he tended to give up short safeties, singles and walks. With the Mets, opponents hit for power when he was brought in earlier than the ninth, and that bled over into his ninth inning work as well.

Helsley serves as a good example of players not being simulation game cards. Most players, especially pitchers, have a routine; starting every X days, getting ready for a particular inning in a game. Take them out of their routine, and some perform poorly. Helsley wants to pitch the ninth, and I suspect the Orioles agreed to that. They will see if it was the routine that caused a poor season, or simply age taking away some of his tools.

November 19, 2025

Odd Trade

The Orioles and Angels made an odd swap of players:

The Baltimore Orioles acquired outfielder Taylor Ward from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for right-hander Grayson Rodriguez on Tuesday night, an intriguing one-for-one swap that filled clear needs for both teams.

The Orioles went into the offseason seeking a power-hitting outfielder and get one in Ward, who is entering his final season before free agency. The Angels sought a top-of-the-rotation starter and hope to get one in Rodriguez, a once-promising prospect who spent the 2025 season sidelined by injury.
ESPN.com

The article paints Ward in a rather favorable light, and it’s true that he produced consecutive seasons of a little under 3.0 fWAR. His best season, however, came in 2022 at seasonal age 28. His OBP declined every year since, and so far he balanced that with an increase in power. He became an easy out when not hitting home runs. If the power declines, he becomes a poor player. On top of that, he will be a free agent at the end of the 2026 season, so the Orioles are really just renting him for a year, hoping for the best.

This really makes me believe that the Orioles don’t believe Rodriguez works as a long-term solution. At seasonal age 26 in 2026 , he remains in his early prime.

The Orioles already were expected to be among the more aggressive teams for starting pitching this offseason, and Rodriguez’s departure makes that need even more acute.

It looks like he had more upside than downside, and should have been worth more than an aging one-year rental. Anaheim tends not to be a place where starting pitchers thrive, but at first glance, this could turn out to be great deal for the Angels. We won’t know how this moves fits in with the Orioles plans for 2026 until we see what other moves the team makes in the coming months.

October 27, 2025

Orioles Land Albernaz

The Baltimore Orioles hired Craig Albernaz as their new manager:

With a strong core of young hitters, the Orioles’ job was one of the most alluring during an offseason with more than a quarter of managerial jobs open. And Albernaz, who, in his previous coaching jobs, forged strong relationships with younger players and was leaned on for a baseball sense honed by years behind the plate, leaped to the top of the list in Baltimore.
ESPN.com

Albernaz never rose above AAA, and given his horrible hitting numbers it’s impressive he stayed in the minors for nine seasons. The Rays thought of him as a coach early on, and I suspect a lot his time in the minors allowed him to be a player coach. He started coaching in the Rays organization when his playing days were over, and eventually made his way to associate manager for the Guardians.

September 26, 2025

Keeping Pace

The race for the top spot in the AL East remains unchanged. The Blue Jays beat the Rays 4-2 thanks to a two run homer by Nathan Lukes, and another good start by Shane Bieber. The Yankees down the Orioles 8-4 Aaron Judge homered and Giancarlo Stanton hit two of his own, tying Carl Yastrzemski for 40th on the all-time home run list with 452.

The teams remained tied at the top of the division with the Blue Jays holding the tie breaker, and a magic number of two.

September 6, 2025

Yamamoto No No

Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers just completed six no-hit innings against the Orioles. He walked two and struck out seven as the Dodgers lead the game 2-0. He threw 84 pitches so far, so we’ll see how long the Dodgers allow him to continue if the no-hitter stays intact.

Update: The Dodgers score in the top of the seventh and Yamamoto retires the Orioles in order in the bottom of the inning to extend his no-hitter. He’s now thrown 95 pitches.

Update: Yamamoto retires the side in order in the eighth inning. He is not at 104 pitches and nine strikeouts. According to the broadcast, he threw two no-hitters in Japan.

August 22, 2025

Extending a Catcher

The Orioles sign newly minted major leaguer Samuel Basallo to an eight year contract worth from $67 million to $88 millon. He is a heavy hitting catcher:

While Baltimore already has a starting catcher in two-time All-Star Adley Rutschman, Basallo could also see time at first base — where he has played more than 100 games over his five minor league seasons — and designated hitter.

Regardless of where he winds up on the diamond, Basallo’s allure has more to do with where he slots in Baltimore’s order. With elite bat speed and exit velocities among the best at any level, Basallo has the talent to become a consistent 30-homer threat, according to evaluators.
ESPN.com

Catchers often suffer short shelf lives. Rutschman is already in his fourth season, and should be peaking at seasonal age 27. Instead, his rWAR declined every year, from a high of 5.4 in his rookie season to a low of 1.7 as we approach the end of this season. This is why catchers who hit well are often moved to other positions, especially if they are not particularly skilled behind the plate. If Rutschman’s decline is real, Baltimore just signed someone who can fill the gap cheaply for the long term, or just be another strong bat in the lineup.

August 16, 2025

Leave It To the Orioles

The Orioles called up outfielder Dylan Beavers. He hit .304/.420/.515 in AAA at seasonal age 23. He seems to have nothing left to prove in the minors.

I do hope his nickname is “Busy.”

August 12, 2025

Quick Work

The Mariners beat the Orioles 1-0 in two hours, twenty eight minutes, while the Guardians downed the Marlins 4-3 in two hours, twenty nine minutes. The Mariners won on the road, the Guardians at home, so the 2:28 is even more impressive as the game had an extra half inning. Good to see the games moving along.

July 31, 2025

Orioles Selling

The Orioles moved players today, sending Cedric Mullins to the Mets and two players, Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano to the Padres. The Padres had a very busy day:

The move comes after Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller made a shocking move earlier in the day to acquire lights-out closer Mason Miller and controllable starter JP Sears from the Athletics. Later, Preller improved his catching situation by bringing in Freddy Fermin from the Kansas City Royals.
ESPN.com

No word in the article on who the Orioles received in return. They did get three minor league pitchers from the Mets:

Going back to Baltimore are Single-A pitchers Raimon Gomez and Chandler Marsh along with Double-A pitcher Anthony Nunez.
ESPN.com

Gomez batters strikeout and walk at a high rate against Gomez. Marsh is similar, with both rates a bit lower. Nunez recently converted to pitching, and again Ks and walks a ton of batters. If the Orioles don’t want to see their defense tested, this is a good group of pitchers. Laureano is easily having his best season at the plate, and I suspect the Orioles got a haul for these two hitters.

O’Hearn showed an impressive change in his approach at the plate after leaving the Royals for the Orioles. Both his batting average and OBP rose. He’s swinging less at pitches outside the strike zone, and seeing more pitches inside the zone.

Mullins is in his third season in a row of a .305 OBP, but does deliver extra-base hits, power at a high cost of outs.

July 29, 2025

Two Teams, One Town, One Day

The visiting Blue Jays and the home town Orioles made a trade between games of their doubleheader:

The Toronto Blue Jays acquired right-handed reliever Seranthony Dominguez from the Baltimore Orioles for right-handed pitching prospect Juaron Watts-Brown.

Dominguez didn’t have to go far to join his new team as the two clubs are in the middle of a four-game series in Baltimore, one that includes a doubleheader that will be completed later Tuesday ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s finale.

Dominguez has not pitched in the series but was active for Tuesday’s Game 1 for Baltimore and will be active in Game 2 for Toronto.
ESPN.com

Dominguez owns a career high 11.66 K per 9 this season, but his walk rate of 5.18 per 9 IP is also a single season high.

I do hope he gets knighted some day.

Watts-Brown, seasonal age 24 is also a high K, high BB pitcher.

July 29, 2025

Bottom to Top

Last night the bottom of the Orioles lineup came through in a big way, and today’s matinee against the Blue Jays featured a tip-top top. The starters in the top three slots combined to go 10 for 15 with a walk and eleven runs scored! The collected two doubles and a home run along the way as Baltimore wins 14-6. The Orioles won four games in a row, scoring in double digits in three of them. They remain well out of contention, but a strong showing right now may keep the front office from tearing the team apart at the trade deadline.

July 10, 2025

Revenge for ’69

The Orioles licked the Mets in a doubleheader Thursday afternoon, taking the early game 3-1 and the evening tilt 7-3. The Orioles are now 26-17 starting May 24th, a .605 winning percentage. Unfortunately, the hole they dug early in the season means that even with that great stretch they are still 11 1/2 games out of first place.

Gunnar Henderson had a big day, collecting four hits, including a double and a homer. He’s done good job of getting on base during this streak.

June 25, 2025

Ground Zero deGrom

Jacob deGrom of the Rangers just finished seven no-hit innings against the Orioles, Texas ahead 7-0. deGrom walked two batters, both in the seventh inning. He recorded seven strikeouts. He’s thrown 86 pitches, but I don’t think he will be lifted for a reliever if the no-no continues.

Update: Colton Cowser pulls a ground ball single into rightfield to lead-off the eighth inning, and deGrom comes out of the game with a 7-0 lead.

June 18, 2025

Eight Isn’t Enough

The Orioles led the Rays 8-0 after the top of the second inning, scoring all eight runs in that frame. The Rays scored three in the third inning, and haven’t stopped scoring as a four run seventh gives Tampa Bay a 12-8 lead. The Orioles have not collected a hit since the second inning.

With the Angels beating the Yankees 3-2, the Rays could be 1 1/2 games out of first place if they hold on for the win.

Tampa Bay continues to be an impressive organization, despite the stadium problems.

Update: The Rays win 12-8.

May 23, 2025

Devers Delivers

Rafael Devers of the Red Sox drives in eight runs with a four for six afternoon in a 19-5 win over the Orioles. Boston scored 13 runs in the eighth inning of the first game of a doubleheader. Cade Povich of the Orioles started the game and allowed one run in five innings, but the bullpen fell apart, and infielder Emmanuel Rivera gave up eight runs in an inning of work to save something for game two.

Devers hit two home runs to bring his season total to twelve and raised his BA to .299 and his OBP to .415. Since going 0 for 19 in his first five games, Devers is 58 for 175, .331 with 12 home runs and 46 RBI in 47 games.

May 17, 2025

Hyde Out

The Orioles fired manager Brandon Hyde:.

The Orioles are 15-28 and in last place in the AL East following a loss to Washington on Friday night. Hyde guided the team through an extensive rebuild and won manager of the year honors in 2023, but Baltimore’s performance slipped noticeably during the second half of last year, and the Orioles have put themselves in a significant hole so far in 2025.

“As the head of baseball operations, the poor start to our season is ultimately my responsibility,” Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said in a statement. “Part of that responsibility is pursuing difficult changes in order to set a different course for the future. I want to thank Brandon for his hard work, dedication and passion all these years, and for returning the team to the playoffs and winning an AL East championship.”

Third base coach Tony Mansolino will serve as interim manager. The Orioles also fired major league field coordinator/catching instructor Tim Cossins.
Chron.com

This post from the other day noted the switch in power, from favoring the Orioles last season to favoring opponents this year. There seemed to be a lack of adjustment as teams figured out how to face the Orioles, and the Orioles never adjusted back. I always thought that happened on a player by players basis, but given the youth of the team, they may have needed a kick start from the manager and the coaching staff.

Mansolino was a career minor leaguer who never made it out of AA with a .219/.267/.299 slash line. He did become a hitting coach for some minor league teams and was hired as an infield instructor and third base coach by the Orioles. He did manage in the Indians minor league system. His teams finished above .500 all four years, including two first place finishes.

May 15, 2025

Power Reversal

The Twins beat the Orioles 4-0 Thursday afternoon to extend their winning streak to eleven games, and bury Baltimore at the bottom of the AL East. The Orioles own a 15-27 record 9 1/2 games behind the first place Yankees.

At this point in 2024, the Orioles stood 28-14, one game back in the AL East. It appears they reversed the power polarity. Through 42 games in 2024, they allowed 42 home runs while hitting 65. This season, with the two they allowed to the Twins today, they gave up 65 while hitting just 49.

On offense, blame Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman. The two combined for 22 home runs at this point in 2024, just ten this season. That’s twelve of the 16 HR drop. Those two are supposed to be the stars of the team, but neither is hitting like it in 2025.

April 22, 2025

In Play on Parker

Mitchell Parker of the Nationals spun eight scoreless innings against the Orioles Tuesday night, allowing just one hit and two walks. That lowered his ERA to 1.39 in 32 1/3 innings. Parker owns a low K rate in his two seasons, and this year especially he allows the ball to be put in play. The difference this season comes from an opposition BABIP of .194, compared to .303 in 2024. That low rate is probably not sustainable, but Parker can keep inducing poor contact, he’ll produce a good season. Fewer Ks often mean fewer pitches, allowing him to go deep in games as well.

The Nationals took the game 7-0.

April 20, 2025

Bottoms Up

The Reds eight and nine hitters, Noelvi Marte and Austin Wynns drove in over half of the Reds 24 runs in a 22 run win over the Orioles. The pair combined to go eleven for fourteen with two home runs and two doubles (both by Marte). Just how great was that performace?

Marte, the No. 8 hitter, and Wynn, batting ninth, combined for 11 hits, the most from the final two spots in a batting order since at least 1901. Their 13 RBI tied for second-most since RBI became an official statistic in 1920.
ESPN.com

Seems appropriate on Easter to have a Bugs Bunny type of score. It makes the Brewers 14-1 win over the Athletics seem like Milwaukee wasn’t trying.

April 13, 2025

Double Your Average

Ernie Clement of the Blue Jays came into Sunday’s game against the Orioles three for 31, an .097 batting average. He improved that today, going four for five with a double and two runs scored. That brought his BA up to .194! His final hit in the tenth inning moved the placed runner to third, when he scored on a soft ground ball. The Blue Jays win the game with that run 7-6.

March 27, 2025

Three for Three

The Orioles spank the Blue Jays in Toronto, taking the Canadian opener 12-2. Three Orioles batters collected three hits each, account for most of the 14 Baltimore hits. Five of those nine hits went for home runs as Adley Rutschman, and Cedric Mullins homered twice, while new acquisition Tyler O’Neill hit the fifth. A power day for the hitters leads to a decisive victory.

March 3, 2025

Nationals Freed

The fight between the Nationals and the Orioles over MASN is over:

MLB said Nationals games will be broadcast by MASN in 2025 under a new, one-year contract.

“After this term, the Nationals will be free to explore alternatives for their television rights for the 2026 season and beyond,” MLB said. “As part of the settlement, all disputes related to past media rights between the Nationals, Orioles and MASN have been resolved, and all litigation will be dismissed.”
ESPN.com

Broadcast rights are a very tough issue, which is why I had hoped that more teams would jump on the MLB broadcast bandwagon. We’ll see if Washington works out a better deal with MASN, or even starts an RSN of their own.

Once the new deal is in place, the Nationals won’t be able to use the lack of revenue from the MASN contract as a reason for not spending more on the team.

February 26, 2025

Team Offense, Baltimore Orioles

The 2025 series on team offense continues with the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles finished fourth in the Majors and second in the American League in 2024 with 4.85 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Brandon Hyde batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.73
Probable lineup: 4.68
Worst lineup: 4.51
Regressed lineup: 4.39

The Orioles prepared a batting order very inline with the LAT. A difference, again, comes from the desire to bat the catcher, in this case Adley Rutschman, second. If Rutschman did not catch the Orioles would be better placing the power of Gunnar Henderson second. Henderson first and Rutschman second works just as well.

The third and fourth best lineups agree with the default lineup on a heart of the order of Ryan O’Hearn, Jordan Westburg, and Colton Cowser. There’s more disagreement on the order of the bottom four hitters, with the LAT putting Jackson Holliday eighth instead of ninth, and Cedric Mullins II serving as the secondary lead-off hitter. Holliday posted a minor league OBP of 443, .423 at AAA. His 2024 projection in my mind is low, so Holliday may give the Orioles a much better secondary lead-off hitter in the ninth slot I would not be surprised if the lineup eventually shifts, everyone moving down and Holliday taking over the leadoff role. With Holliday a year older, I suspect the Orioles will do better than the projections above.

Previous posts in this series:

February 10, 2025

Changes, Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles added a few new players to their 2025 projected 26-man roster over the off season:

Tyler O’Neill, left field
Gary Sanchez, catcher
Ramon Laureano, outfielder
Charlie Morton, starting pitcher
Tomoyuki Sugano, starting pitcher
Andrew Kittredge, relief pitcher

Sugano is the only person on the active roster without major league experience.

The starting pitching acquisitions will try to replace Corbin Burnes, lost to free agency. Both Morton and Sugano come with years of experience, well into the portion of their careers when they should be in decline. Sugano is a control artist, averaging 1.7 BB per nine during his twelve seasons in Japan. His strikeout rate has fallen off in recent seasons, and I suspect the Orioles defense will need to play well behind him. Morton plays 2021 as a 41-year-old, and his ability to limit walks deteriorated in the last few years. He still delivers Ks, however.

O’Neill slots into the cleanup slot in the Orioles batting order after a comeback season with the Red Sox. His two best season came in 2021 and 2024, and were marked by extremely high strikeout rates, with over 30% of his PAs resulting in K’s. His production comes from swinging hard, and hoping the bat meets the ball. A great example of the strikeout paradox, where the power generated can make up for the lost hits by swinging and missing.

Sanchez is a good power bat who can spell Adley Rutschman against left-handed starters. Laureano is another high K power bat. It seems the Orioles want a particular type of hitter in the lineup, as O’Neill, Sanchez, and Laureano all fit the power mode.

Kittredge is a close as one comes to a high-end reliever who pitches to contact. He averaged 8.6 K per 9 IP in his career with a low walk rate. He’s step into the setup role with the Orioles. He tends to produce ERAs lower than his FIPs throughout his career. I suspect part of that comes from Tampa Bay playing great defense behind him.

Baltimore went with no spectacular improvements. That may come from Jackson Holliday starting full time.

January 3, 2025

Morton to the Orioles

The Orioles agree to a one-year, $15 million deal with veteran pitcher Charlie Morton.

Morton plays 2025 at seasonal age 41. The projections at FanGraphs put him at 1.6 WAR for2025, which to me seems a bit generous. In general, I don’t expect 41-year-olds to improve much.

I also wonder if a signing like this is as much about coaching as competing. Morton went through a career of changes to stay on top. Because he struggled and reinvented himself at times, he may be better able to influence the younger Orioles pitchers.

January 3, 2025

Squeezing the Nationals

Talk Nats details a 20% reduction the Nationals rights fees from MASN:

Shocking news was reported that the Washington Nationals are still trying to get paid on monies owed from MASN for the three year period that has passed from 2022-to-2024 totalling approximately $203 million. We also learned that last year, and continuing through 2026, the MASN TV rights payments owed to the Nationals would be reduced annually by 20 percent below the amount of the fees during 2023. In fact, the number for 2024 dropped below $60 million to $58.3 million per a filing with the clerk of the courts last week.
TalkNats.com

It’s about time the Nationals were free to make their own TV deal.

December 8, 2024

Lefty Killer

The Orioles agreed to a three-year deal with outfielder Tyler O’Neill. He’ll earn $49.4 million:

O’Neill, who will receive an opt-out clause after the first year of the deal, parlayed a bounce-back season with the Boston Red Sox into the biggest payday for an outfielder this winter. While that soon will be dwarfed by Juan Soto‘s signing, O’Neill, 29, adds a right-handed bat to an Orioles lineup filled with left-handed hitters.

He did the majority of his damage against left-handed pitchers this year, hitting 16 of his 31 home runs off lefties — in fewer than half the plate appearances. With the left-field fences at Camden Yards scheduled to be moved in, O’Neill can tap into his power with a lineup that already includes Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and Cedric Mullins.
ESPN.com

The Orioles didn’t see all that many left-handed starters in 2024. They went 23-20 when a lefty started against them, and those 43 games ranked 18th in MLB for starts against a left-handed pitcher. O’Neill owns a huge career platoon difference, .270/.376/.547 against left handed pitchers, .239/.305/.446 against right handed pitchers. That was even larger in 2024. He owns an extremely high K%. I think the Orioles overpaid a bit, but they saw a need and moved to fix it quickly.

November 16, 2024

Mama Bear Barrier

The Orioles will adjust the leftfield wall at Camden Yards one more time in an effort to get it just right.