Tag Archives: Dellin Betances

December 24, 2019

Betances Bets on the Mets

The Mets agreed to a one-year deal with former Yankees reliever Dellin Betances:

The New York Mets have reached an agreement with free-agent reliever Dellin Betances on a one-year contract with a player option for 2021.

The Mets announced the deal with the four-time All Star on Tuesday. Betances is guaranteed $10.5 million under the contract.

The 31-year-old, who is from New York, is staying in his hometown after spending his first eight seasons in the majors with the Yankees.

StarTribune.com

So despite missing most of 2019, the Mets are paying him as a one-WAR pitcher. No word if the Mets will use him as their closer. In his career, Betances did a better job of limiting offense in the eighth inning (.160/.264/.247 opposition slash line) than he has in the ninth (.188/.310/.299).

September 2, 2018

Relievers and the Growth of Strikeouts

Dellin Betances set a strikeout record on Saturday:

Yankees RHP Dellin Betances on Saturday became the first pitcher in Major League history to strike out at least 100 batters as a reliever in five straight seasons.

I doubt he will be the last. Over time, more and more strikeouts are being pushed into the bullpen. This spreadsheet tries to display what happened over the last 60 years. In the late 1950s, starting pitchers faced about 71% of batters, but recorded about 70% of strikeouts. Even then, relief pitchers were slightly better at striking out batters than starters. The percent of batters faced by starters shrunk over time, down to 61% this season after a rapid five-year drop. The gap between percentage of batters faced and percentage of strikeouts recorded by starters has widened to about three points. Relievers continue to strikeout batters more often than starters, and the gap is widening despite less work by starters. See the graph labeled Pct Starters BF and K.

A second chart shows this same concept a bit differently. It looks at the share of strikeouts per 1000 batters faced. In 1957, batters struck out about 125 times per 1000 PA. Eight seven of those came from the starters, 38 from relievers. In 2018, batters strikeout about 221 times per 1000 PA. One hundred thirty of those come from the starter, 91 come from relievers. The share of strikeouts by relievers more than doubled, while the share of strikeouts by starters is up about 50%.

Note in the chart labeled Strikeout per 1000 Total Batters the recent history of the increases. Between 2007 and 2010 inclusive, starters went from 104 K per 1000 total batters to 118. The relievers then followed, going from 77 in 2015 to 91 today. I believe 2015 was the year the Royals convinced the rest of baseball that fire balling relievers led to championships. Enjoy the data.

August 2, 2017 May 14, 2017

Chapman Cuffed

Aroldis Chapman lands on the ten day disabled list with a rotator cuff injury:

Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman was placed on the 10-day disabled list on Sunday because of inflammation in the rotator cuff of his left shoulder. The injury was revealed by a magnetic resonance imaging test on Saturday after Chapman complained of pain on his pitching side following an appearance in Friday night’s 6-1 loss to the Houston Astros.

General Manager Brian Cashman said Chapman would be shut down for two weeks and unlikely to appear in a game for at least a month. In the interim, Manager Joe Girardi said Dellin Betances, the bullpen’s setup man, would assume the closer’s role.

Rotator cuff injuries used to be common, but doctors and trainers figured out how to better strengthen the muscles that combine to form the cuff to prevent the tears that used to end pitching careers.

Meanwhile, Betances gets another chance to show he can perform as a closer. His experience from last season should help. The Yankees pen is deep, as the group owns a 2.50 ERA and struck out 123 batters in 104 1/3 innings. Chapman accounted for 21 of those K in 12 2/3 innings, while Betances has 22 K in 11 2/3 innings.

February 19, 2017

The Fix

Ken Rosenthal suggests a fix to what he calls a broken arbitration system:

One team executive made the point Saturday that clubs develop statistical models for everything they can think of, projecting what players might accomplish, projecting what might teams might achieve, and more. So, why not develop a model to determine salaries for arbitration-eligible players, too?

The union and management could jointly determine the proper statistics to evaluate each position, adjusting the formulas perhaps every five years to account for how the game evolves (not long ago, remember, teams placed greater value on one-dimensional power hitters, less on elite setup men.)

Once again, a pundit ignores the better solution, free agency after three years. When the six year free agency period was put in place, there was a much smaller difference between the minimum salary and what a free agent could earn for a one WAR season. So there was some justification for teams needing six years to recoup their investment in training players through the minor leagues. Now, when a team saves $7 million dollars by getting one WAR from a league minimum player, that length of time under team control makes less sense.

The sooner players reach free agency, the sooner they make the money they deserve. With more free agents on the market, prices won’t grow too quickly. Also, teams are much more likely to sign youngsters to long term contracts early. Everyone benefits.

February 18, 2017

Fire Levine

Randy Levine put his foot in his mouth today. The Yankees beat reliever Dellin Betances in arbitration, but that wasn’t enough for the Yankees president:

Levine used a conference call with reporters who cover the Yankees to blast Betances’ agent, calling Betances a “victim” and a pawn in a “half-baked attempt” to reset the market for relief pitchers who, like Betances, are not closers.

“It’s like me saying, ‘I’m not the president of the Yankees; I’m an astronaut,’” Levine said. “No, I’m not an astronaut, and Dellin Betances is not a closer.”

Levine added: “That $5 million number? It might as well have been $50 million.”

The arbitration process is contentious enough without rubbing salt in the wound. Sportsmanship may be more important here that on the field. Here’s Betances responding. The Yankees trashed him in the hearing, but he was willing to overlook that. Not this:

“Is it selfish of me just to say now, ‘Hey, guys, I just want to come in for the eighth inning with no runners on, all the time’?” he said.

He continued: “That’s not the player I am. I try to go out there and battle for my teammates. I try to do the best I can. But now that you go in that room and you see some of the comments, do you put yourself at risk at all times?”

This is why teams and players try to avoid arbitration in the first place. Now, Levine may be right about what the agents were trying, but so what? That is their job, and if they won, they would have won a battle for all relief pitchers and might have expanded their practice. Their loss wasn’t going to impress anyone, and now Levine alienated a fine pitcher. Maybe he’s been in the president’s chair a few years too long. Levine’s rant was a huge mistake.

January 16, 2017

Visualizing Arbitration

FanGraphs offers their 2017 version of the arbitration visualization. What’s most interesting to me is how close the ask and bid price is for most of the players. In other words, teams and agents appear to be on the same page in valuing players.

The biggest differences appear to belong to Drew Pomeranz and Dellin Betances. I think the Yankees will make out well even if they lose, while the Red Sox and Pomeranz are likely to settle, since his actual value appears to be at the mid point.

Update: River Ave. Blues has a great article on the Betances case. He wants to be paid like a closer, and the Yankees want to pay him like a top set-up man.

September 26, 2016

Betances Falling Apart

The Yankees took a 7-3 lead in the top of the ninth inning. Dellin Betances comes in and walks two and commits a fielding error to load the bases with none out. Two of his three previous appearances, in games the Yankees had to win, have not been pretty. He’s out of the game.

Update: Tommy Layne comes in and gets a fly ball for the first out. He then gives up a walk and a bloop single, and the Yankees lead is down to 7-5, bases still loaded.

Update: Russell Martin hits a nubber in front of the plate. Both Sanchez and Layne go for the ball. Layne picks it up, avoids, a collision, and tags the plate for the second out. Amazing. The Blue Jays have not hit a ball hard.

Update: Brett Gardner makes a sliding catch in foul territory to end the game, and the Yankees win 7-5. Nothing is easy late in the game for the Yankees lately.

July 26, 2016

No Runs, BM

The Yankees showed they can close a game without Aroldis Chapman as they defeat the Astros 2-1 Monday night. Michael Pineda managed to avoid allowing hits, giving up one run on a homer as the Astros collected five safeties in seven innings against the starter. Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller then came on to allow one hit while striking out four. They are back to normal.

So often we see relievers upset to be used outside their roles. Miller lost his closer job for three months, but functioned perfectly well in his set up job. I would not be surprised to learn that the Yankees might have told him in April that it would be just three months, and Chapman was a flip. It worked out well.

May 14, 2016

Shut Down Pen

The Yankees showed what their bullpen could do on Saturday. Ivan Nova started against the White Sox and pitched well, allowing just one run. He left the game with two out in the sixth inning after walking a batter, throwing 74 pitches in his second start of the season. Dellin Betances came on and struck out the final batter of the inning, then the side in the seventh. Andrew Miller gave up a hit in the eight, but struck out two, and Aroldis Chapman struck out two of the three batters he faced in the ninth. In total, the three reliever faced 11 batters and struck out eight of them. Now the Yankees just need to score more runs to make sure they have leads to defend.

New York won this one 2-1 over Chicago.

April 23, 2016

Strikeout Saturday

Tanner Roark of the Nationals struck out 15 Twins batters in seven innings Saturday afternoon. His career strikeout rate is an okay 6.1 K per 9 IP. It was an unexpected performance.

Dellin Betances of the Yankees worked one inning in relief against the Rays and struck out two of the three batters he faced. That’s not unusual, as he has now struck out 22 of the 35 batters he faced. The opposition does well when they put the ball in play (5 for 11), but they just don’t put the ball in play that often.

Strikeouts and hits don’t always move in opposite directions. The Oakland Athletics struck out just three times against the Blue Jays, but recorded just seven hits. The Blue Jays struck out nine times but recorded 13 hits, including three home runs.

Corey Kluber struck out 10 Tigers as the Indians routed the Tigers. Since the start of 2015, Kluber owns 274 strikeouts in 249 innings, with nine starts recording 10 K or more.

Avisail García struck out twice in the White Sox win over Texas, part of an 0 for 4 day that reduced his batting average to .135. He has now struck out 18 times in 15 games. Given that he’s just 7 for 29 when not striking out, he might want to cut back on the Ks.

We’ll see what the evening brings.

June 11, 2015

How Difficult is it to Find a Closer?

Lady at the Bat wonders if Joe Girardi is using his star relievers too much, which may have led to Andrew Miller‘s injury:

The biggest reason seems to be that he doesn’t trust anyone else in the bullpen. No one else has really distinguished themselves enough to be considered for higher leverage situations. And then there’s this: Girardi may believe he will be fired if the team misses the playoffs for the third year in a row, so he’s doing everything he can to avoid that, including risking injury to his players.

Actually, the second most relief innings behind Dellin Betances goes to Esmil Rogers, with one of the worst ERAs on the team. Someone has to be the mop-up man.

Truthfully, blowing out a bullpen to win a championship seems like a good strategy to me. In general, relievers are cheap and replaceable. It seems that every year the Rays remake their pen and do just fine. The Yankees replaced a legendary closer, Mariano Rivera, first with David Robertson, then with Andrew Miller, and now with Betances. How hard can this be?

It’s not like Miller blew out his elbow. He has a muscle strain, and those heal. Betances is 27 years old, so he does not have a still developing arm. The relievers may not like putting their bodies at risk for a playoff run, but it’s a perfectly good strategy, and the trade-off for not being a starter.

May 12, 2015

The Great Reliever

Dallas Keuchel and Zack Greinke lead their leagues as of this morning in the Cy Young Tracker points race. There’s an unusual name in the top 20, however, Dellin Betances. I believe he’s the only reliever in the top 40. The Tom Tango devised formula weight innings, earned runs, strikeouts, and wins to try to predict who will be atop the Cy Young voting at the end of the season. Betances does all of those well.

He leads the majors in appearances at 17, so he’s collecting a good deal of innings. He’s yet to allow an earned run (he allowed two runs in total). He struck out 30 in his 19 1/3 innings. Finally, his record is 4-0, and the most wins by a starter this season is six.

Can he keep it up? I suspect the strikeouts will stay high, but I also suspect the Yankees will dial back his innings a bit at some point. The wins are a function of the team winning late, which could simply be random. Betances’s rank in Cy Young points reflects his lead in reliever WAR. Right now, despite not being a closer, he’s the best reliever in the business.

September 28, 2011