Tag Archives: Gavin Williams

September 30, 2025

Playoffs Today

The Tigers and Guardians kick off the 2025 post season at 1 PM EDT with Tarik Skubal facing Gavin Williams. Skubal finished second in the majors and first in the American League in ERA for the 2025 season. His three true outcomes all were outstanding, his slightly weak spot came from allowing home runs. The Guardians ranked low in homers. Skubal allowed the Guardians one home run in 28 innings this season, helping him to a 0.64 ERA against the team.

Four of the top ten pitchers in ERA take the mound today, and Williams is close at 13th with a 3.06 ERA. Williams walked a ton of batters, but gave up few hits. Batters managed just a .158/.265/.256 line against him with runners in scoring position. He is a reverse right-handed pitcher, where LHB hit him poorly this season. He allowed the Tigers, who use a fairly left-handed lineup against righties, just eight hits in 17 IP for a 1.06 ERA.

At 3 PM EDT, the Padres and Cubs begin their wild card round with Nick Pivetta facing Matthew Boyd. Pivetta finished tenth in the majors in ERA with a 2.70 mark. Batters managed just 129 hits against him in 181 2/3 innings, with a low walk rate as well. That led to a .253 opposition OBP. The Cubs did hit him well, however, with a .286/.350/.400 slash line in 40 plate appearances. Boyd finished 15th in the majors in ERA. With a low strikeout rate and a low walk rate, the Padres matchup well against him. They put the ball in play, and it will be easier against someone like Boyd. The Padres slashed .256/.319/.279 against him this season, generating little power.

MLB gets a classic rivalry in prime time as the Red Sox visit the Yankees, game time 6 PM EDT. It’s a battle of left-handed aces as Garret Crochet takes on Max Fried. They ranked sixth and eight in MLB ERA respectively this season. Crochet wins the strikeouts and walks columns, with over two more Ks per 9 than Fried. Fried allowed just 14 home runs to Crochet’s 24, and often in these low scoring games the home runs make the difference. He did allow the Yankees five home runs in 27 1/3 innings, but overall pitched well against the team. Fried pitched poorly in five of his last six post-season starts.

Note that the Red Sox are without Roman Anthony. With him playing, Boston went 44-27, a .620 winning percentage. Without him, they were 45-46.

Finally, the Reds face the Dodgers at 9 PM EDT with Hunter Greene facing Blake Snell. Injuries kept the innings for these starters below the qualifying level, but Greene posted a 2.76 ERA and Snell a 2.35 mark, so they may have wound up on the leader board. Snell pitched well in the post-season during his career, tough to hit but he does allow home runs. Greene makes his first post-season start. His first two seasons produced ERAs well over four, but the last two seasons saw ERAs of 2.75 and 2.76. He lowered his ERA despite reducing his strikeout rate, because he lowered his walk and home run rates. He abandoned his changeup for a splitter, and that seems to have done the trick.

Enjoy!

September 23, 2025

Games of the Day

1 Reply

The Tigers and Guardians battle for the NL Central title Tuesday night as Tarik Skubal faces Gavin Williams. With the Guardians currently holding the tie breaker, they need to take two of three against Detroit to go into the driver’s seat in the division. Skubal shut down the Guardians in three starts this season, allowing one run in 22 innings with two walks and 32 strikeouts! Williams brings the heat with 161 K in 161 2/3 innings, but walks a batter every other inning.

The Red Sox visit the Blue Jays for a three game series, Boston five games out in the AL East and only one game up for the second wild card slot. They need a sweep to have a decent chance at the AL East title. Lucas Giolito takes on Kevin Gausman. Giolito held the Blue Jays at Bay this season, while Gausman faced Boston just once, with an eight inning performance early in the season.

I will note that in the NL, the Mets visit the Cubs while the Reds host the Pirates. The Cubs still need to win to secure the top wild card slot, while Pittsburgh played poorly as of late. That gives the Red a bit of an advantage in the race for the third wild card slot in the NL.

Enjoy!

August 13, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Phillies send Cristopher Sanchez against the Reds as Hunter Greene returns from his injury. Sanchez is now in the thick of the NL Cy Young race after a poor start by Skenes on Tuesday night. Greene tries to continue his impressive control. He owns a K/BB of 5.21 this season versus 3.34 for his career.

The Mariners try to stay hot as they send Logan Gilbert against Trevor Rogers in Baltimore. Gilbert owns a 3.11 ERA over his last seven starts with 51 K in 37 2/3innings. Rogers comes into the game with a 1.44 ERA in 62 1/3 innings. He allowed just 37 hits.

The Guardians also try to stay hot as they host the Marlins. Eury Perez faces Gavin Williams. Perez makes up for a higher BB rate by doing a good job of limiting hits. At 3.17, Williams is posting the lowest ERA of his career and looks like he’ll reach the ERA qualifying level of 162 innings for the first time.

Enjoy!

August 6, 2025

Gavinized

Leave a reply

Gavin Williams gave the Cleveland bullpen most of the day off as he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning, losing it on a one-out Juan Soto home run. The Guardians won the game 4-1. He actually stayed in for two more batters, getting Pete Alonso to fly out, then walking Brandon Nimmo. Williams walked four and struck out six in the game, throwing 126 pitches.

Williams is seasonal age 25, so he’s not a youngster. So the Guardians likely felt he could take a higher pitch count. An impressive outing that lowered his ERA to 3.17.

August 6, 2025

Quick Games of the Day

3 Replies

Trevor Rogers of the Orioles with a 1.44 ERA in 56 1/3 innings tries to stop the Phillies and Ranger Suarez.

The Guardians attempt to move closer to a playoff spot in the AL as they face the Mets, in a hot NL East race. Gavin Williams takes on David Peterson.

Andrew Abbott of the Reds squares off against Cade Horton and the Cubs in an important NL Central battle.

Enjoy!

July 26, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Guardians try to gain more ground on the Tigers as they play a double header at Kansas City. Game one is the better matchup as Gavin Williams takes on Michael Wacha. Williams puts men on base with a .327 opposition OBP, but limits power with a .369 opposition slugging percentage. Wacha is similar but slightly better, with a ,305 OBP and a .364 slugging percentage allowed.

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers legend, takes the mound at Fenway against Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet. If this is Kershaw’s final season, he is trying to go out on top with a 4-1 record and a 3.27 ERA. His strikeout rate is down from his career averages, but he remains stingy with walks and home runs. Crochet is at the height of his game, 5-0 in his last seven starts with a 1.90 ERA. He allowed just two home runs in that span.

Finally, the Mets face the Giants with David Peterson battling Robbie Ray. They own nearly identical ERAs, 2.90 for Peterson, 2.92 for Ray. Peterson gets there with few walks and home runs, while Ray blows batters away with Ks.

Enjoy!

July 1, 2025

Games of the Day

1 Reply

The Yankees help celebrate Canada Day in Toronto with an afternoon game. Max Fried takes on Kevin Guasman. Fried owns the second best ERA in the AL this season, 1.92, thanks in part to ranking fourth in both walk rate (1.75 per 9 IP) and home run rate (0.58 per 9 IP). Gausman’s strikeout rate took a tumble in 2024 and stayed low this season. The rise in ERA is situational, with Guasman giving up more power with men on base.

Nick Pivetta leads the Padres against Cristopher Sanchez and the Phillies. Pivetta ran into some trouble lately, but is coming off seven dominant shutout innings against the Nationals. Sanchez was part of an impressive month of June for the Phillies rotation in which they posted the highest average game score for a rotation in the majors. Sanchez finished June with a 1.85 ERA for the month.

The Brewers and Mets both find themselves two games back in their respective divisions. Freddy Peralta takes on Clay Holmes. Watch for the Mets to try to run on Peralta, as opponents successfully stole in nine of ten attempts with him on the mound. Holmes continues to thrive in his first season as a full time starter. He held batters to a .119 BA with runners in scoring position.

Finally, the Guardians send Gavin Williams against the Cubs and Matthew Boyd. Williams strength is inducing poor contact, as opponents own a .286 career BABIP against him. Boyd walked just 21 batters in 91 2/3 innings this season.

Enjoy!

June 25, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

It’s a battle of great young pitchers as Paul Skenes and the Pirates take on Jacob Misiorowski and the Brewers. Skenes quickly morphed from a thrower to a pitcher when you compare 2025 to 2024. He strikes out two fewer batters per nine innings, but both his opposition BABIP and batting average allowed are down. More balls in play with worse results allows him to go deeper in games. Misiorowski allowed just one hit, a home run, in his first eleven MLB innings. He walked five and struck out ten.

Max Scherzer returns to the mound as the Blue Jays face the Guardians and Gavin Williams. Scherzer only pitched 46 1/3 innings since the start of 2024, but walked just ten batters in that time with 41 K’s. Williams’ weakness comes from walks with 111 issued in his 233 1/3 career innings, 4.28 per nine IP.

The Rays try to keep their surge toward first place going with Drew Rasmussen facing the Royals and Michael Wacha. Rasmussen goes for his fifth consecutive season with an ERA under 3.00, but so far in only one of those did he pitch more than 100 innings. Wacha goes for his fourth straight season with an ERA in the low 3.00s, and he may get to 30 starts for the first time since 2017,

Enjoy!

May 26, 2025

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Red Sox travel to Milwaukee as Garrett Crochet faces Chad Patrick. Crochet lived up to the hype so far with a 1.96 ERA and 78 strikeouts in 68 1/3 innings. He holds the opposition to a .268 OBP and a .289 slugging percentage, as just eleven of the 51 hits against him went for extra bases. Patrick owns a 3.23 ERA 53 innings into his MLB career. He’s striking out nearly three times the batters he walks.

The Dodgers head to Cleveland as they send Yoshinobu Yamamoto against the Guardians and Gavin Williams. Yamamoto’s .172 BA allowed is second best in the majors to Carlos Rodon of the Yankees. Yamamoto’s OBP and slugging allowed beat Rodon, however. Williams blows away batters with 57 K in 48 IP, but his 26 walks temper his ability to keep the ball out of play.

Enjoy!

October 18, 2024

Playoffs Today

Leave a reply

The Dodgers can win the National League Pennant with a win over the Mets Friday evening, a 5 PM EDT start. Jack Flaherty takes on David Peterson. Flaherty is coming off seven shutout innings against the Mets, and the Los Angeles starters simply dominated New York. The own a 1.65 ERA and walked six and struck out 20 in 16 1/3 innings. Peterson pitched well in his role as the man in after the opener, allowing two runs in 8 2/3 innings this post season. We’ll see if he can limit free passes as Mets starters walked 16 Dodgers batters in 14 1/3 innings.

The Yankees and Guardians play game four of the ALCS in Cleveland starting at 8 PM, New York leading the series 2-1. Luis Gil takes on Gavin Williams. Gil makes his post-season debut after a long layoff. Gil’s weakness is issuing walks, but the Guardians tend to attack the ball. If Cleveland goes after pitches outside the zone, that will help Gil. Williams also make his post-season debut. He two tends to issue walks, and the Yankees are a selective team. BBs could decide this game.

Enjoy!

August 16, 2024

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Mariners visit the Pirates with a battle of aces as Logan Gilbert takes on Paul Skenes. Gilbert stands 7-8 despite a 2.91 ERA, fourth best in the AL. The Mariners offense in general support their pitchers poorly, and they scored just 3.6 runs per game in Gilbert’s starts. My favorite Skenes stat is that with all the Ks, he still managed to induce 10 GDP in 37 chances.

Central division leaders clash in Milwaukee as the Guardians send Gavin Williams against Aaron Civale. Williams owns an ERA a run higher than his rookie year of 2023, but that may be misleading as all three of his true outcomes improved in 2024. Civale makes his second start against his former team. He owns a 1-2 record with a 4.88 ERA since joining the Brewers. He allowed seven home runs in 31 1/3 innings for his new team.

Enjoy!

August 10, 2024

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

With a sweep of the doubleheader against the Guardians on Friday, the Twins stand just 1 1/2 game out of the AL Central division lead. Cleveland sends Gavin Williams against Simeon Woods Richardson in Minnesota Saturday evening. Williams comes into the game with a 4.91 ERA. With 23 starts in his career he owns a 3.76 ERA with a high K rate. The problem comes from a high walk rate, and a high BABIP this season. Woods Richardson takes a 3.87 ERA into the game with a low strikeout rate but a .283 BABIP.

The second leg of the college roommate trip takes the guys to Milwaukee to see Nick Martinez of the Reds pitch against Tobias Myers of the Brewers. (I believe we have seen the Reds a lot as the road team over the years.) Martinez pitched much better as a reliever this season, with a 1.86 ERA in 53 1/3 innings. He owns a 6.16 ERA in 30 2/3 innings as a starter. The rookie Myers owns a 3.02 ERA in his first 17 appearances. His low walk rate stands as his early career strength.

The Phillies and the Diamondbacks battle with Aaron Nola facing Zac Gallen. Nola allowed 20 home runs in 142 1/3 innings, but his .277 OBP allowed means there are not a lot of men on base to score on those long balls. Gallen struggled lately, with a 5.35 ERA in his last seven starts. He walked 17 batters in 37 innings.

Finally, Dodger Stadium feature a rookie rumble as Paul Skenes leads the Pirates against River Ryan. Skenes currently ranks ninth in Tom Tango Cy Young Points, pretty good for someone with just fourteen starts. Ryan owns a 1.72 ERA in three starts. He walked nine batters in 15 innings, but allowed just one home run.

Enjoy!

August 4, 2024

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Diamondbacks and Pirates play the rubber game of their weekend series, Pittsburgh 2 1/2 games back of third place wild card Arizona. The pitching matchup at least favors Pittsburgh as the Diamondbacks send Ryne Nelson against rookie sensation Paul Skenes. Nelson is a low strikeout, low walk pitcher .322 BABIP this season. Skenes is a high K, even lower walk pitcher with a .275 BABIP. He does allow home runs, however, eight long balls in 80 innings.

The Orioles go for a split of their four game series against the Guardians with Corbin Burnes facing Gavin Williams. Burnes appears to be a pitcher, at least this season, that doesn’t care about stolen bases. Opponents are 26 for 30 against him, and yet Burnes leads the AL in ERA. If you get the batter, the stolen base turns out to be not that important, and opponents are hitting .175/.238/.263 against Burnes with runners in scoring position. Williams makes his seventh start of the season, and is holding opponents to a .342 slugging percentage.

Finally, the Phillies lost six games in a row as they finish up their series in Seattle. Zack Wheeler battles Logan Gilbert. Wheeler appears to be in a cold streak going back to the middle of June, but he sandwiched five good starts between two very bad ones. Gilbert does a good job of inducing double plays, with 14 turned behind him in 49 opportunities.

Enjoy!

August 24, 2023

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The scheduled game in Cleveland features the Dodgers sending Ryan Pepiot against the Guardians and Gavin Williams. Pepiot pitched 41 1/3 innings in his professional career with mixed results. He limits hits, with just 29 allowed, but gives up home runs and walks, 28 of the latter. All in all, it works out to a decent 3.27 ERA. The rookie Williams stands 1-4 in eleven starts despite a 3.02 ERA. The Guardians scored two runs or less in six of his starts.

Boston tries to gain another game on Houston as Brayan Bello faces JP France. Bello recovered from a poor July in which he allowed a 5.48 ERA, posting a 3.86 ERA so far in August. He allowed just three home runs this month compared to seven in July. France uses the Houston defense effectively to allow a .246 BA despite just 80 K in 108 innings.

Enjoy!

July 3, 2023

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Braves and Guardians rematch the 1996 World Series (different dians, however) with Bryce Elder facing Gavin Williams. Elder so far improved on his rookie season of 2022, lowering his ERA from 3.17 to 2.44 by greatly reducing his walk rate. The rookie Williams allowed just five hits in his first 12 2/3 innings as he makes his third start. He’s yet to record a decision with his 2.84 ERA.

Two struggling southern California teams meet in San Diego as Jaime Barria of the Angels takes on Blake Snell of the Padres. Barria’s low ERA comes mostly from his relief work. As a starter, he allowed five home runs in 22 1/3 innings. Snell is one of the top strikeout rate pitchers in the majors since his first season of 2016. Note that he does not pitch as much as some of the others at the top, only reaching the ERA qualifying level of 162 innings once in his career.

Finally, All-Stars are scheduled to battle at Dodger Stadium as Mitch Keller of the Pirates takes the hill against Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers. Keller goes for hit tenth win of the season. He pitched to a higher ERA on the road, 4.02 versus 2.63 at home, but still managed to post a 4-2 record in road games. Kershaw is questionable, and may go on the illjured list instead of making the start. That would give him through the All-Star break to heal his shoulder.

Enjoy!

June 21, 2023

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Diamondbacks and Brewers play the rubber game of their series with Zac Gallen taking on Julio Teheran. Gallen cut his home run rate by 1/3 compared to last season. He gave up 15 dingers in 184 innings in 2022, just five in 91 1/3 innings this season. Teheran looks like the favorite for comeback player of the year at this point, posting a 1.78 ERA in five starts. He walked just four batters in 30 1/3 innings.

Oakland and Cleveland play one of the few evening games, with Paul Blackburn facing Gavin Williams, Williams making his MLB debut. Blackburn proved to be a bright spot for the Athletics since coming off the illjured list. He walked six and struck out 23 in 20 2/3 innings. Williams posted a 2.10 ERA in 175 1/3 MLB innings. His high K rate led to a very low hit rate. The Guardians give him a somewhat easy assignment for his first MLB start.

Shohei Ohtani pitches against the Dodgers, who have not announced a starter. This will be his first start against Los Angeles. Ohtani had some trouble on the road this season where his ERA stands at 4.03. Seven of the eleven home runs he allowed came away.

Enjoy!