Tag Archives: St. Louis Cardinals

December 22, 2025

Two Ls for First

1 Reply

The Red Sox acquired Willson Contreras from the Cardinals to play first base.

The Boston Red Sox acquired first baseman Willson Contreras in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals, the second big deal between the teams this winter as the Cardinals rebuild and the Red Sox aim to stay competitive in the cutthroat American League East division.

Contreras, 33, has been one of the steadiest right-handed hitters in baseball since his debut and will bring his well-above-average glove to a position Boston had spent the offseason trying to fill. The Red Sox will receive $8 million to cover the remaining $42.5 million on the three-time All-Star’s contract and sent right-hander Hunter Dobbins and right-handed pitching prospects Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita to the Cardinals.

ESPN.com

Contreras posted very consistent fWARs in his career, with six of his seasons coming in between 2.4 and 2.8 fWAR, overall averaging 2.4 fWAR per season. Most of that comes from his offense, as he posted negative defensive numbers most seasons, including 2025.

I don’t quite see the advantage of this deal compared to sticking with the oft injured Triston Casas. Musings Marcels pegs Cacas at .245/.338/.445 in 2026, Contreras at .254/.345/.443, Cacas at a much lower price tag. If the two wind up platooning, The Red Sox gave up some young talent for a part-time first baseman.

It does look like Contreras might pepper the way at Fenway. Baseball Savant projects Contreras’ hits onto Fenway Park, and it does look like he’ll give the wall a beating.

November 25, 2025

Gray Day

Leave a reply

The Red Sox acquired pitcher Sonny Gray from the Cardinals for two players and other considerations:

Vocal about the need to add an established starting pitcher to slot behind ace Garrett Crochet in the starting rotation, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow achieved that goal on Tuesday by adding veteran righty and three-time All-Star Sonny Gray in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals.

In exchange, Boston sent right-hander Richard Fitts and lefty prospect Brandon Clarke — the team’s No. 5 prospect per MLB Pipeline at the time of the trade — to the Cardinals.

MLB.com

The Red Sox also received $20 million from St. Louis and were able to rework Gray’s contract for Competitive Balance Tax reasons.

The last two seasons Gray posted high ERAs but low xFIPs. His very good three-true outcome rates earned him 7.4 fWAR over the last two seasons. Note that rWAR, which measures what he actually accomplished, put him at 3.2. rWAR over the same time period. That value is more reflective of his 4.07 ERA. He tended to give up power with men on base, and that’s when giving up power hurts one the most.

In general, I consider fWAR more predictive, so in that sense this looks like a good move. Fitts looked more impressive in the minors than the majors, and the Cardinals ballpark might be a better fit for him. Clarke owns 38 innings in A ball in his professional career, striking out 60 batters but walking 27 and hitting 12 . He has yet to allow a home run, however. So 99 of the 174 batters he faced did not put the ball in play. He is 22, so not terribly young, and we’ll see if the Cardinals can get his walks under control.

September 27, 2025

Head for the Mountains

Leave a reply

Michael Busch of the Cubs helps beat the Cardinals 7-3 as he misses the cycle by a single, going four for four with a double, triple, and two home runs out of the lead-off slot. Busch is now slugging .526 on the season with 25 doubles, five triples, and 34 home runs. He’s having an outstanding peak year at seasonal age 27.

The win gives the Cubs the top wild card slot, and they will be hosting the first round.

July 30, 2025

You Can’t Put Too Many Closers in a Major League Bullpen

Leave a reply

Both the Phillies and Mets trade for closers on Tuesday. The Phillies landed Jhoan Duran:

The Philadelphia Phillies agreed to a trade for Jhoan Duran, one of baseball’s best relievers, sources told ESPN on Wednesday, and paid a high price to the Minnesota Twins to get it done.

According to sources, Minnesota received catcher Eduardo Tait, regarded as a Top 100 prospect, and pitcher Mick Abel, a rookie with six years of team control. They’re ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, among the Phillies’ minor league prospects, per ESPN.

ESPN.com

Note that Duran’s strikeout rate is down this season and his walk rate is up. Tait is playing his age 18 season at high A ball. He’s hit .288/.349/.470 in three seasons. The sky’s the limit for Tait. Abel is a high K, high walk pitcher, and his ERA at every minor league level was over 4.00. Tait is the one to watch.

It’s been a while since the Phillies won the World Series, and I think they’d like to do that while Bryce Harper is still good. That group, Harper, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, and Kyle Schwarber are not young any more.

The Mets take Ryan Helsley from the Cardinals:

The New York Mets are acquiring two-time All-Star reliever Ryan Helsley from the St. Louis Cardinals for three minor leaguers, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Wednesday.

Though one of baseball’s top closers, Helsley is expected to serve as a setup man for Mets All-Star closer Edwin Diaz. He is the second right-handed reliever landed by the Mets via trade on Wednesday, joining Tyler Rogers, who was acquired from the San Francisco Giants for three players hours earlier.

The additions provide very different looks. Rogers is a submariner with an 83-mph sinker. Helsley is a traditional hard-throwing late-inning reliever with an arsenal that centers around a fastball that averages over 99 mph.

ESPN.com

Like Jhoan, Helsley’s three true outcomes slipped from last season. Rogers needs a great defense behind him, with both K and BB rates. The Mets defense is okay.

I think the problem with deals for relievers, and relievers in general, comes from all their work being a small sample. It’s tough to know how well a reliever will do, since a couple of bad outings, or a couple of great outings, can skew the perception of the pitcher. I just can’t get excited about trades for relievers.

July 14, 2025

Travel Troubles

Leave a reply

Sorry for the lack of writing today. My flight home from St. Louis was delayed four hours, then canceled with us on the runway due to FAA regulations, then scheduled for six hours later. So I spent the night in airport. All’s well that ends well, and I’m home but tired.

Sunday was my first time at Busch Stadium and I like it very much. Here was our view when it wasn’t raining:

I luckily bought club seats, so we were able to escape the rain, eat, and relax during the delays.

As always, it was a great weekend with friends, and now we start figuring out where to go next season!

July 4, 2025

Cubs Clouts

Leave a reply

The Cubs rip eight home runs in an 11-3 win over the Cardinals. Ironically, three of them came off the bat of Michael Busch. Pete Crow-Armstrong added a pair as well.

It is the twelfth time this season the Cubs hit at least four home runs in a game, the most by a team in the majors this season. The Yankees, with four home runs this afternoon as they play in the seventh at Citi Field, are second with 10.

Update: The eight home runs set a club record for the Cubs.

May 7, 2025

Table Setters

Leave a reply

Lars Nootbaar of the Cardinals reached base with three hits in four at bats in the 5-0 win over the Pirates Wednesday afternoon. That raised his OBP for the season to .374. He is one of a number of lead-off hitters this season posting great OBPs. Oneil Cruz of the Pirates might be the most surprising name, as he owns a .324 career OBP. He went one for four in the game.

April 13, 2025

Extra Cardinals

Leave a reply

The Cardinals shutout the Phillies 7-0 on Sunday as seven of their ten hits go for extra bases. They came into the game with 215 total bases, tied for third in the NL with the Diamondbacks. With five doubles and two home runs to go with their two singles, they increase that amount to 236. That puts them ahead of Arizona by eleven. Both the Dodgers and the Cubs, playing the Sunday night game, were ahead of them in the category.

April 4, 2025

Mister .500

1 Reply

The Red Sox home opener produced a ton of offense as Boston downed St. Louis 13-9. The Red Sox collected 16 hits and eight walks while the Cardinals came in at 13 hits and two walks.

Wilyer Abreu posted one of the big days, three for five with his third home run of the season. That leaves him 11 for 22 on the season for a .500 BA. With seven walks, his OBP is at .621, and with 22 total bases he’s slugging 1.000. Early in his peak years, everything is going right for the right fielder.

April 2, 2025

Backstop Pop

Leave a reply

Cardinals catcher Ivan Herrera showed terrific on-base skills in 2024, collecting hits and walks. That allowed St. Louis to move Willson Contreras to the field and keep two good bats in the lineup. With three home runs in the 12-5 win over the Angels Wednesday afternoon, Herrera added a new wrinkle to his game. He hit five home runs in 72 games during the 2024 season, so three in one game puts him well ahead of his previous year pace. The big game left him with a .467/.529/1.200 slash line for the season

March 29, 2025

Keeping Arenado

Leave a reply

The Cardinals defeated the Twins 5-1 on Saturday thanks to another good game by Nolan Arenado. He went two for four with a double, a run and an RBI and is not batting .500/.556/1.000 with four hits, a walk, a double and a home run. Both his OBP and power dropped the last two seasons, so I understand why the Cardinals wanted to move him. So far, Arenado is succeeding at proving the Cardinals were better off keeping him.

On an unrelated point, if Arenado married Randy Arozarena, would they use Arozarenado as their last name?

March 8, 2025

Team Offense, St. Louis Cardinals

Leave a reply

The 2025 series on team offense continues with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals finished twenty second in the Majors and twelfth in the National League in 2024 with 4.15 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts as the source of default lineups. That Carlos Marmol batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections.   That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

  • Best lineup: 4.83
  • Probable lineup: 4.77
  • Worst lineup: 4.62
  • Regressed lineup: 4.45

The good news is that for standing pat, the Cardinals offense projects to be much better than the 2024 model. Part of that comes from this being a younger team with the removal of Paul Goldschmidt. Much of the starting lineup sits in their pre to early prime years, so Musings Marcels gives those batters a bump up for still being in the improvement phase of their careers. The Cardinals also feature a lineup up with good to very good OBPs. In general, the more batters reach base, the more runs a team scores. The power projection for the team is low, so it will be tougher to bring the runners around.

The bad news comes from a disconnect between the projections and the lineup construction. The specific players in mind here are Masyn Winn batting first and Brendan Donovan batting fifth. Musings Marcels put the OBP/Slug for the players as .313/.404 for Winn, .354/.412 for Donovan. In looking at the other projections at fan graphs, these are in line, and Winn’s is one of the more generous ones.

The LAT sees Winn batting eighth, usually reserved for the least productive hitter in the lineup. Donovan or Ivan Herrera gets the leadoff slot. Since Herrera catches, it’s not a great idea to bat him first, but the Cardinals did make the brilliant move of batting him ninth, where the LAT also likes him.

Why make such an obvious mistake? It may be strategic, a throwback to Gene Mauch. Mauch liked one-run strategies. He liked his second hitter to be a good bunter, so he could sacrifice the lead-off hitter into scoring position. If you think about subsequent times through the order, the offensive sequence starts with Herrera. Winn bunts well, so he should be good at putting Herrera into scoring position. I don’t particularly like the strategy, but with little power on the team, it does make some sense.

Note, too, that there is very little difference between the best and worst lineups, as the talent of the hitters fits in a very narrow band. I’ll be curious to see how often Winn is called on to sacrifice.

You can see the projections for the teams at this spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

February 20, 2025

Changes, St. Louis Cardinals

1 Reply

The Cardinals did not bring in any players from outside the organization over the winter to add to their active roster. They replaced Paul Goldschmidt by moving Willson Contreras to first base and Ivan Herrera to catcher. Note that Herrera gets on base at a very good clip, something Goldschmidt did not do last year, so this could be a nice positive for the team.

I suspect that bringing in no one from outside the organization is quite rare. There is talk of a Nolan Arenado trade. We’ll see if that happens before the start of the regular season.

November 7, 2024

Streaming Cardinals

Leave a reply

The Cardinals reached a deal with Diamond Sports Group to broadcast games, which includes this:

Its broadcasts will air under FanDuel Sports Network Midwest, but fans will also have an in-market, direct-to-consumer option under the FanDuel website, making this the first MLB deal in which Diamond has acquired streaming rights it did not possess.

“We are pleased to enhance and expand our long-term partnership with Diamond and FanDuel Sports Network Midwest,” Cardinals president Bill DeWitt III wrote in a statement. “We valued the continuity for our fans of staying on the same network as the [NHL’s St. Louis] Blues, and we are excited to expand access to our games and other great Cardinals content across multiple platforms next year.”

ESPN.com

This is good news for Cardinals fans who want to watch games when they are away, or even if they just stream.

I don’t think this is quite a done deal, as MLB can still submit objections to the groups restructuring plan.

November 7, 2024

Internal Replacement

Leave a reply

Cardinals decided to replace free agent first baseman Paul Goldschmidt with their catcher, Willson Contreras. GM John Mozeliak talked about the move:

Mozeliak pointed to injuries as one deciding factor for the move. Contreras missed time this past season with a broken arm after getting hit by a swing from New York Mets designated hitter J.D. Martinez.

It’s also not uncommon for aging catchers to add or move to another position to preserve themselves after taking a beating behind the plate for so long. Contreras hit 15 home runs while compiling an .842 OPS in 2024, but he played in only 84 games because of the broken arm.

ESPN.com

Ivan Herrera likely becomes the first string catcher. Contreras and Herrera sat atop the Cardinals offense in 2024, so this move should improve the team offensively.

Goldschmidt, at seasonal age 36 saw his production fall off. Still it was a good trade and contract extension for St. Louis. Goldschmidt generated 20 fWAR for St. Louis for $145 million. That works out to $7.3 million per war, a low rate for a productive hitter.

September 2, 2024

Adames Attacks

Leave a reply

Willy Adames of the Brewers homered in his fifth straight game Monday afternoon, helping the Brewers to a 9-3 win over the Cardinals. His barrage goes back further than that, however, as he he homered in consecutive games on August 25th and 27th. That makes him 12 for 38 in his last nine games, a .316 BA, with seven of those twelve hits home runs. That’s good for an .868 slugging percentage.

August 14, 2024

Power Head, Power Heart

Leave a reply

Reds leadoff hitter Jonathan India and cleanup hitter TJ Friedl each hit two home runs in the 9-2 win over the Cardinals. India’s strength is getting on base, and his three for five tonight raises his OBP to .353, with his slugging going to just .395. While Friedl’s slugging percentage goes to .421, his had good power as his isolated power stands at .188. The

Reds move into a tie with the Cardinals for second place in the NL Central, both teams one game below .500.

July 30, 2024

Cardinals Trade an Outfielder to the Rays

Leave a reply

The Cardinals and Rays made a deal, St. Louis sending Dylan Carlson to Tampa Bay for reliever Shawn Armstrong. My first thought was going to be that Carlson is the next Randy Arozarena.

Rumors have circulated for several days about a potential trade of Dylan Carlson. The Cardinals wanted to clear roster space for the newly acquired Tommy Pham and also find bullpen help.

They (theoretically) did both by moving Carlson to the Rays (where he seems destined to become an impact player) for struggling right-handed reliever Shawn Armstrong.

VivaElBirdos.com

The Cardinals likely needed to give Carlson some room to recover from an early season injury. The Rays might be better suited to do that right now.

July 29, 2024

White Sox Rebuild

Leave a reply

The Dodgers, Cardinals, and White Sox pull off a three-team deal to bring Chicago some young talent:

The White Sox, Cardinals and Dodgers reached a three-team, eight-player trade Monday that sees St. Louis land starting pitcher Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham, and Los Angeles get super-utility man Tommy Edman and reliever Michael Kopech.

Three former Dodgers infield prospects — Miguel Vargas, Alexander Albertus and Jeral Perez — are headed to the White Sox along with a player to be named later or cash.

The Dodgers also get 17-year-old right-hander Oliver Gonzalez from the Cardinals, while the Cardinals will get cash from the White Sox and either cash or a player to be named later from the Dodgers.

ESPN.com

Albertus and Perez are just 19 years old and doing a great job of getting on base in the low minors, and Perez adds power. Those two and a good, high draft choice next season could lead the White Sox back to the promised land. We’ll also have to see who the PTNL turns out to be.

July 23, 2024

A Frame Too Far

Leave a reply

Paul Skenes of the Pirates pitched eight efficient inning against the Cardinals, allowing one run on a Nolan Arenado homer. If the middle of the eighth, however, he trailed 1-0, as the Pirates squandered a few scoring opportunities. After Pittsburgh tied the game in the bottom of the eighth, Skenes came out for the ninth. He allowed a double and a single, however, and comes out of the game trailing 2-1 with a man on first.

We’ll see if the bullpen can strand that runner and if the Pirates can find a way to score in the bottom of the ninth. Skenes finishes with 8 1/3 innings, four hits, no walks, and eight strikeouts.

Update: The Pirates fail to score in the bottom of the ninth, and Skenes takes the first loss of his career, 2-1.

June 22, 2024

The Winn Upside

Leave a reply

Masyn Winn of the Cardinals went three for five on Saturday, including a double, to raise his batting average to .300. That helped the Cardinals down the Giants 9-4.

Winn strikes me as an unusual hitter in his role as lead-off man. He strikes at just under 20% of the time. While that is not outlandish into today’s game, it seems high for someone who lacks home run power. Given his triples, stolen bases, and lack of GDPs, he appears to be fast. On top of that, he owns a .358 BABIP.

Good things happen when Winn puts the ball in play. He is still young at seasonal age 22. Cutting down on his strike outs, even to 15% would raise his average a good bit. Since, at the moment, he doesn’t walk much, that would also raise his OBP, making him an even better table setter. He’s someone to watch as he matures and learns the league better.

June 11, 2024

Miles To Go

Leave a reply

Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals just finished six no-hit innings against the Pirates. The first Pittsburgh batter to reach came on a walk with one out in the latest frame, the only blemish for Mikolas tonight. He has thrown 71 pitches through six, striking out five.

Unfortunately for the Cardinals, Paul Skenes is also throwing a shutout, with three hits allowed through five innings.

Update: Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates leads off the seventh with a triple. Still no score.

April 30, 2024

Flaherty Record

Leave a reply

Jack Flaherty of the Tigers tied an AL record by striking out the first seven batters of his former team, the Cardinals.

Flaherty matched the record shared by Joe Cowley (1986 White Sox), Carlos Rodon (2016 White Sox), Blake Snell (2018 Rays) and Luis Castillo (2022 Mariners).

Miami Marlins right-hander Pablo Lopez set the major league record by striking out the first nine batters of a game in 2021.

ESPN.com

Flaherty wound up striking out fourteen batters in 6 2/3 shutout innings, but the Tigers could not defend a 1-0 lead as the Cardinals scored twice in the top of the ninth inning to win game one of the doubleheader.

April 23, 2024 April 20, 2024

Better Beer

Leave a reply

I started the season under the impression that the Brewers decided to take a step back. The architect of the team went to the Mets. The manager, one of the best in the game, moved to the Cubs. They trade their best starting pitcher to the Orioles, and another fine starter was lost for the year to injury.

Yet after beating the Cardinals 12-5 on Saturday, the Brewers are 13-6, first place in the NL Central. On offense they are among the highest scoring teams in the NL, while on the defensive side, the pitchers and fielders are among the best teams at keeping runs off the board.

Saturday, they fell behind 3-0 early. The bullpen took over and pitched brilliantly, allowing one hit in 5 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, eight hitters in the lineup posted multi-hit games. There are a number of outstanding OBPs in the lineup early in the season. We’ll see if that lasts, but most teams wish they could take a step back like this.

April 7, 2024

Everyone Wins

Leave a reply

The Marlins beat the Cardinals 10-3 to become the final team to record a win in the 2024 season. Max Meyer gave Miami six effective innings, allowing one run on solo shot by Nolan Gorman (who homered twice in the game). Meyer only struck out three batters, but Cardinals managed just three hits on all the balls in play, and also drew just one walk against the starter.

Luis Arraez came alive on offense, going four for five to raise his BA to .268 and his OBP to .362, one of his hits his first triple of the season. Overall, the Marlins hitters collected 13 hits and two walks, four of the hits for extra bases.

March 28, 2024

Superstar Top

Leave a reply

The Dodgers 1-2-3 of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman lit up the Cardinals for five hits, three extra-base hits, four walks, six runs, and four RBI. After three games, Betts is hitting .636/.733/1.273.

The Dodgers lineup is not as deep as in the recent past, but with those three at the top they may not need to be.

Paul Goldschmidt collected all three of the Cardinals hits, homering for the team’s only run.

March 24, 2024

Division Preview, 2024 NL Central

1 Reply

The division previews continue with the NL Central. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Cincinnati Reds

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.47
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.45
  • Core Winning Percentage: .601

The Reds positioned themselves to take control of the NL Central in 2024. On offense, opponents face no glaring holes; the batting order is consistent top to bottom. Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley, and Tyler Stephenson sit in the middle of their primes. Elly De La Cruz* and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are young and offer quite a bit of upside. This team should generate runs at a high rate.

*Cruz reminds me of Bo Jackson. I felt Jackson was somewhat overrated offensively, but he was one of the few players I would pay to see perform. Jackson was an exciting, dynamic player. Cruz may fit that model.

The Reds are the strongest team offensively up the middle.

The rotation doesn’t really hold an ace, but none of the starters rank as terrible. The starters and closer are more than good enough for the offense, plus it’s tough to generate a good projection in that ballpark.

If the Reds acquired a superstar hitter in the off season, they might run away with the division. Instead, they’ve developed a cost effective winning team.

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.52
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.64
  • Core Winning Percentage: .587

The Cardinals mirror the Dodgers this season, in that they leave me unimpressed with their pitching staff. Both of those teams over the years seemed to maintain a constant flow of minor league talent to the mound, despite winning records that limited draftable talent. This rotation is old, with only Zach Thompson, in his early prime, offering any chance at an upside.

Ryan Helsley ranks as the division’s best closer, but none of the closers are very strong.

The Cardinals offense, however, projects to be the best in the division. They start three batters who project to better than six RC/G, the only team in the division with more than one. They do have a couple of potential holes in Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson, but Winn is young enough to have some upside and prove that projection wrong.

I would be very surprised if the Cardinals repeated their last place finish is 2023. They did a good job rebuilding the offense, and we’ll see who they have in the pitching pipeline of the veteran starters falter.

Chicago Cubs

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.10
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.44
  • Core Winning Percentage: .568

The Cubs bring the best core pitching in the division to the table, although they are only 0.01 runs better than the Reds. Chicago may very well be better than that number, as Kyle Hendricks‘ poor seasons in 2021 and 2022 drive up his RC/G. We will see if he can continue to compensate for a lower K rate by limiting walks and home runs. A lot will also depend on how well Shota Imanaga adjusts to the majors after pitching in Japan. He may well be the ace.

Offensively, the Cubs are in the same position with Cody Bellinger as with Kyle Hendricks. Two poor seasons in 2021 and 2022 moderate the expectations for Bellinger repeating his outstanding 2023. There is plenty of prime talent in the rest of the order, so if those two veterans can keep things turned around, the Cubs will compete for the division title.

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.03
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.73
  • Core Winning Percentage: .531

The Brewers took a step back this season, especially in the core pitching. While Freddy Peralta projects to be the best starter in the division, the rest of the rotation and the closer offer unimpressive results. You can see why Craig Counsell, wanted to leave. He doesn’t want to rebuild, and the Cubs offer a much better chance of winning soon.

The team looks less impressive on offense as well, although that was not their strength in 2023. They project to be the lowest scoring team in the division in 2024. The silver lining her is that the offense is decently strong up the middle. If by chance they find themselves in contention, it’s easier to improve offensively on the corners than at the skill positions.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Position Player RC/G Average: 5.10
  • Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.91
  • Core Winning Percentage: .519

The Pirates did not seem to do much to build on their fourth place finish in 2023. Mostly, they once again failed to put decent talent around their one great hitter, Bryan Reynolds. Maybe they finally get a good season out of Oneil Cruz. Maybe Ke’Bryan Hayes does more than play great defense. The young hitters aren’t that young anymore, and if they don’t hit their strides soon, this will go down as a failed development cycle.

The offense needs to be good to compensate for the poor core pitching, projected to be the worst in the division. Maybe rookie Jared Jones turns out to be good, but there’s nothing in his minor league numbers that scream ace.

Maybe there is talent waiting in the minors, but this looks like another disappointing season for the Pirates.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

  • Cincinnati Reds 45%
  • St. Louis Cardinals 25%
  • Chicago Cubs 20%
  • Milwaukee Brewers 7%
  • Pittsburgh Pirates 3%

If you like catchers who can hit, this is a great division. Given the overall lack of pitching talent, I expect rather high scoring games when these teams meet head to head.

The Reds should take the title, but I don’t think they will run away. The big question for me is will the Cardinals or the Cubs give them the most trouble?

March 16, 2024

Marmol Extended

Leave a reply

The Cardinals front office likes Oliver Marmol and extended his contract through 2026. Here is John Mozeliak on the signing:

“We believe that he’s the right person for this job,” Mozeliak said. “And we’re excited to know who will be here for the for the next few years. So it was important to us to get this done. We’re glad it’s behind us and we look forward to the future.”

…

“Given the fact that the roster we’ve assembled we believe is going to be competitive, has a chance to be exciting, and we just didn’t want something — if we have a stumble or get off to a slow start, all of the sudden, everybody’s looking over their shoulders,” Mozeliak said. “It’s just not fair to everybody involved. So the timing of this, as we started thinking more and more about it, had to be dealt with now and not something midseason or at the end of the year.”

ESPN.com

The offense projects to be much better than last season, and that gives Marmol a good chance to look good as the team improves. Of course, if the team finishes last again, Cardinals might be stuck with a contract they don’t want.

March 15, 2024

Team Offense Summary

Leave a reply

With all thirty teams analyzed, the Dodgers and Braves come out on top, flipping one and two from last season. The LAT shows the Dodgers finishing first in the majors in runs per game, beating the Braves by 0.07 runs. Note that the Dodgers own a bigger spread between their best and worst lineups, 0.37 runs to 0.32 for the Braves. This suggests Los Angeles may be more dependent on their star players than Atlanta, and more susceptible to an injury causing havoc.

That is pretty much what happened to the Yankees last season. New York, with a healthy starting lineup and the addition of Juan Soto, moves from twenty fifth to fourth. That the biggest jump any team made this season. They still have a high spread, 0.43 runs, so once again remaining healthy becomes the biggest priority for the team. The Cardinals also make a big jump, going from nineteenth to fifth.

There are some drops as well. The biggest one belongs to the Cubs, going from sixth to twenty second. One reason for that would be Cody Bellinger. Musings Marcels uses three years of data to evaluate a player. While Bellinger posted great numbers in 2023, his 2021 and 2022 season were poor. He gets knocked down for that. If he returns to his 2023 level, this will turn out to be a poor prediction for the Cubs.

The Rangers, Rays, and Orioles also show drops. Part of that comes from the young players on the team still getting strong regression toward the league averages. Teams will adjust to these hitters. Some will fade due to that, but some will adjust back. Again, youth brings upside.

On the low end, the Nationals drop from twenty first to last, predicted to finish behind the awful Oakland lineup.

The Reds get my vote for most interesting team in the study. They rank seventh, just behind the Phillies. The spread between their best and worst lineups is just 0.15 runs, indicating their talent is evenly distributed throughout the batting order. In other words, they are loaded with good talent. With youth as well, there is upside to the prediction. If there is going to be a surprise offensive juggernaut, the Reds could be it.

Next week we’ll start to see how things shake out.

You can see the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series: