Tag Archives: Bo Bichette

January 16, 2026

Short and Stacked

The trend of large, short-term contracts continue as Bo Bichette signs with the Mets for three years, $126 million.

The deal, which is pending a physical, includes player opt-out clauses after the first and second seasons. It does not include any deferred money, giving the contract a straight average annual value of $42 million. With the expenditure, the Mets have surpassed the top competitive balance tax threshold of $304 million with a projected payroll of $345.7 million, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
ESPN.com

The Mets seem to be valuing him as a four WAR player, and most of the projections put him at the level. On the other hand, 2024 was a poor year, and Bichette really appears to have peaked early, posting his best seasons in his age 23 and 24 seasons. This season with give Bichette a chance to show that he can consistently put up four to five WAR again, and maybe getter a longer term deal while he is still in his prime next season

From the Mets side of things, I find it a bit odd. In some ways they appear to be rebuilding, but this signing might indicate that a trio of Bichette, Francisco Lindor, and Juan Soto might provide enough offense to carry New York to the playoffs. If they are in the race in July, they could acquire short term talent to take them over the top.

November 1, 2025

Bo Gets On

After a long fly out by Vladimir Guerrero Jr leading off the bottom of the ninth inning, Bo Bichette singles to put the winning run on base. Isiah Kiner-Falefa pinch runs.

Update: Addison Barger takes a 3-2 pitch for a walk and IKF is in scoring position for Alejandro Kirk.

Update: The Dodgers replace pitcher Blake Snell with yesterday’s starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Update: Kirk gets hit on the hand on an 0-1 pitch. The bases are loaded for Daulton Varsho.

Update: Varsho gets to live the dream, with a chance for a walk off grand slam to win the World Series.

Update: Varsho falls behind 1-2. He hits a ground to Miguel Rojas, pulled in, and he throws home and the call is out. Replay confirms that.

Update: Ernie Clement, who set the record for most hits in a post season, drives a ball deep to leftfield. Enrique Hernandez and Andy Pages (just in) converge on the ball. Pages catches it, but takes out Hernandez.

The Blue Jays fail to score, and the game goes to the eleventh inning. That last two outs were a matter of inches.

November 1, 2025

Bo Gets a Really Bichette

The Blue Jays get batters on base again in the bottom of the third. George Springer leads off with a single for the second time in the game, he’s bunted to second, and moves to third on a wild pitch. That causes the Dodgers to issue an intentional walk to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Bo Bichette then hits the first pitch from Shohei Ohtani over the fence in centerfield and the Blue Jays lead the Dodgers 3-0 in game seven of the World Series. Bichette knew it was gone and just stood at the plate until it went out.

The Dodgers went too long with Ohtani, and now they are in a hole. Ohtani off the mound.

October 27, 2025

Slow Call Costs a Runner

In the bottom of the second, with Bo Bichette on first base and a 3-1 count on Daulton Varsho, Tyler Glasnow throws a pitch that looked like it was high out of the strike zone. Varsho starts to first and the umpire then calls the pitch a strike, then points his finger. I don’t think Bichette saw that, as he started walking to second base and is thrown out. That was a bad call in two ways, wrong and slow, but Bichette has to pay more attention.

Varsho does eventually draw a walk, and Alejandro Kirk follows with a single. The Blue Jays do not score, however.

October 24, 2025

Bichette Returns

After a two-out walk to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the bottom of the first inning, Bo Bichette of the Blue Jays comes to bat for the first time in the playoffs and singles to right to drive Guerrero to third base. Blake Snell is a little wild early.

Update: Alejandro Kirk fouls off a ton of pitches, then draws a walk to load the bases.

Update: Daulton Varsho flies out to center to end the inning, but the the Blue Jays forces Snell to throw 29 pitches in the first inning.

October 23, 2025

Waiting for Bichette

The Blue Jays continue to contemplate Bo Bichette‘s availability for the World Series:

“Feeling good enough,” Bichette said Thursday.

Bichette took groundballs at second base and faced live pitching Wednesday. Schneider said he was scheduled for a similar routine Thursday “with a little bit more attention to detail from a defensive standpoint.”

Schneider said Toronto is considering Bichette, 27, for shortstop, second base, or designated hitter. He could also start the series strictly in a pinch-hitting role. Bichette last played second base in April 2019 in Triple-A.
ESPN.com

The Blue Jays offense played very well without him, but they certainly would be better offensively with Bichette in the lineup.

September 6, 2025

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Mets stayed atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a two for four game, including a walk and a double. The Mets beat the Reds 5-4. Soto’s drop in power this season comes from his lack of doubles and triples. In 2024, he collected 35 short extra-base hits to go with his 41 home runs. So far this season he collected just 18 SEXBH.

Brice Turang of the Brewers ranks second after a two for five in a 5-2 win over the Pirates. George Springer of the Blue Jays sits in third place after getting hit by a pitch in the 7-1 win over the Yankees, Toronto opening a larger gap in the AL East as the Red Sox also lost. The core of the offense, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. produced big games for the win.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals sits in fourth place as he went 0 for 3 in a 2-1 win over the Twins. He left the game early with back spasms. The Royals are now one game out of the third wild card slot in the AL, also 1/2 game behind Texas. Five teams are within 2 1/2 games of that final playoff spot. I still hope for a massive tie, even though it would not create a playoff bottleneck.

Corey Seager of the Rangers returned to the dugout yesterday as he continues to recover from an appendectomy. According to the broadcast, he’s trying to come back as quickly as possible. The Rangers beat the Astros 4-3 without him.

Hunter Goodman of the Rockies posted the best game score of the day, a 79. He went three for three with a walk, double, and home run in a 3-0 win over the Padres. He is slugging .538 on the season. The slugging is real. While the road hurts his ability to get on base, he generates even more power away from Coors.

Note that the highest game score of the day for pitchers also occurred in that game, as Kyle Freeland of the Rockies threw eight shutout innings with ten strikeouts and no walks for an 88.

September 3, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.313, 0.732 — Jacob Wilson batting at Matthew Liberatore.
0.306, 0.691 — Dominic Smith batting at German Marquez.
0.302, 0.720 — Bo Bichette batting at Zack Littell.
0.301, 0.723 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Cade Povich.
0.301, 0.701 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Aaron Nola.
0.300, 0.691 — Heliot Ramos batting at German Marquez.
0.299, 0.688 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at German Marquez.
0.295, 0.688 — Sal Frelick batting vs. Aaron Nola.
0.294, 0.687 — Lenyn Sosa batting at Zebby Matthews.
0.293, 0.698 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Bryce Elder.

Wilson puts the ball in play about 86% of the time, and owns a high BABIP. His BA of .315 this season is very close to his BABIP of .320 due to a low number strikeouts and a few home runs.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.313, 0.732 — Jacob Wilson batting at Matthew Liberatore.
0.301, 0.723 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Cade Povich.
0.302, 0.720 — Bo Bichette batting at Zack Littell.
0.281, 0.715 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Shane Bieber.
0.277, 0.704 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Caden Dana.
0.288, 0.701 — Xavier Edwards batting at Mitchell Parker.
0.301, 0.701 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Aaron Nola.
0.293, 0.698 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Bryce Elder.
0.269, 0.694 — Trea Turner batting at Jose Quintana.
0.306, 0.691 — Dominic Smith batting at German Marquez.
0.300, 0.691 — Heliot Ramos batting at German Marquez.

For the second day in a row, both systems put Wilson at the top. Arraez and Bichette tie for the consensus double down choice. Bichette is playing on the road, which might give him an extra plate appearance.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 2, 2025

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto generated the second highest game score of the day on Monday, moving him to the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He went two for three with two walks, a triple and a grand slam in a 10-8 win over the Tigers for a score of 80. While his .257/.397/.518 slash line for the season might be below expectations, he hit a more Soto like .288/.449/.625 since the start of August.

Brice Turang of the Brewers sits in second place after a two for three with two walks and a home run in a 10-8 Philadelphia win. Rafael Devers of the Giants posted a two for four with a walk and a double in an 8-2 win over the Rockies. He ranks fourth.

Third place Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals and fifth place Corey Seager of the Rangers did not play. The Royals sat idle, while Seager recovers from an appendectomy. The Rangers beat the Diamondbacks 7-5.

The highest game score of the day belonged to Bo Bichette of the Blue Jays, an 83. Bichette recorded a perfect day at the plate, four for four with two doubles and a home run in a 5-4 Reds win. Bichette moves up to twelfth in the rankings. This was his third four-hit game in his last 32 contests. During that time he is batting .382/.434/.550.

August 30, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.313, 0.729 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
0.309, 0.709 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.298, 0.706 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
0.293, 0.685 — Andy Pages batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.290, 0.690 — Noelvi Marte batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
0.286, 0.691 — Chandler Simpson batting at Jake Irvin.
0.285, 0.681 — Shohei Ohtani batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.283, 0.695 — Yandy Diaz batting at Jake Irvin.
0.282, 0.707 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Quinn Priester.
0.282, 0.691 — Jose Altuve batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
0.282, 0.685 — Jake Mangum batting at Jake Irvin.

The Reds sometimes sit Andujar versus right-handed pitching, so check to see if he is in the lineup today. Freeman is dealing with a minor injury, but did play Friday night.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.313, 0.729 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
0.309, 0.709 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.282, 0.707 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Quinn Priester.
0.298, 0.706 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
0.271, 0.706 — Luis Arraez batting at Taj Bradley.
0.272, 0.702 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Jack Flaherty.
0.283, 0.695 — Yandy Diaz batting at Jake Irvin.
0.282, 0.691 — Jose Altuve batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
0.286, 0.691 — Chandler Simpson batting at Jake Irvin.
0.250, 0.690 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Merrill Kelly.
0.290, 0.690 — Noelvi Marte batting vs. Michael McGreevy.

The two systems agree on Andujar and Freeman on the top. If you are unsure of them, the next tier down would be Pena number one and Bichette as the double down. Note that Witt and Bichette own the two longest current hit streaks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 26, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.353, 0.735 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.340, 0.721 — Carlos Correa batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.338, 0.725 — Jose Altuve batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.336, 0.724 — Yainer Diaz batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.321, 0.703 — Mauricio Dubon batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.319, 0.695 — Victor Caratini batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.307, 0.680 — Ramon Urias batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.306, 0.678 — Jesus Sanchez batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.298, 0.709 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Bailey Ober.
0.296, 0.663 — Cameron Smith batting vs. Tanner Gordon.

The Rockies starters allow so many hits entire lineups project to high hit averages. The top three here are the default top three in the Astros order.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.353, 0.735 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.338, 0.725 — Jose Altuve batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.336, 0.724 — Yainer Diaz batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.340, 0.721 — Carlos Correa batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.295, 0.719 — Miguel Andujar batting at Clayton Kershaw.
0.287, 0.713 — Luis Arraez batting at Luis Castillo.
0.286, 0.712 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Charlie Morton.
0.298, 0.709 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Bailey Ober.
0.321, 0.703 — Mauricio Dubon batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.266, 0.701 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Martin Perez.

Witt, Bichette, and Correa own three of the top four current hit streaks. Pena and Altuve rate as the consensus double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 23, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.320, 0.710 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
0.308, 0.696 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
0.307, 0.717 — Bo Bichette batting at Janson Junk.
0.301, 0.718 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Chris Paddack.
0.300, 0.715 — Trea Turner batting vs. Mitchell Parker.
0.295, 0.675 — Tommy Pham batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
0.294, 0.675 — Spencer Horwitz batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
0.293, 0.702 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Janson Junk.
0.291, 0.697 — Ernie Clement batting at Janson Junk.
0.291, 0.675 — Bryan Reynolds batting vs. Kyle Freeland.

It’s a Pirates heavy day once again as they face a poor Rockies starter. Freeland is much tougher to hit away from Coors Field, however.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.287, 0.721 — Miguel Andujar batting at Nabil Crismatt.
0.301, 0.718 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Chris Paddack.
0.307, 0.717 — Bo Bichette batting at Janson Junk.
0.300, 0.715 — Trea Turner batting vs. Mitchell Parker.
0.320, 0.710 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
0.289, 0.708 — Jacob Wilson batting at George Kirby.
0.280, 0.705 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Jose Berrios.
0.293, 0.702 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Janson Junk.
0.291, 0.697 — Ernie Clement batting at Janson Junk.
0.308, 0.696 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting vs. Kyle Freeland.

Andujar came up as a good pick all season long, and collected hits in 72.4% of his games. His probability today is right in line with that, on a low probability day. Crismatt pitched little in his last three seasons, so his numbers are highly regressed to the league mean of .220, so there is little extra information there.

Bichette, Gonzales, and Witt all tie for the consensus top pick. Witt owns an eleven game hit streak, second longest in the majors right now. The longest streak belongs to Tyler Soderstrom of the Athletics, twenty games (including two pushes). The NN puts his probability of continuing the streak at .637. For his career, he is a low BABIP, high strikeout batter. It’s a tough choice today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 16, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.301, 0.705 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Cal Quantrill.
0.301, 0.701 — Chandler Simpson batting at Justin Verlander.
0.301, 0.712 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Patrick Corbin.
0.292, 0.701 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Patrick Corbin.
0.291, 0.702 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting vs. Patrick Corbin.
0.288, 0.688 — Kerry Carpenter batting at Zebby Matthews.
0.287, 0.693 — Yandy Diaz batting at Justin Verlander.
0.287, 0.715 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Quinn Priester.
0.286, 0.683 — Alex Bregman batting vs. Cal Quantrill.
0.286, 0.686 — Alejandro Kirk batting vs. Patrick Corbin.

No one expected Romy Gonzalez and Chandler Simpson at the top of the list. Both batters walk very little, so their batting averages are close to their hit averages. Gonzalez strikes out a ton, Simpson puts the bat on the ball. Both produce high BABIPs. Batters make a lot of contact against Quantrill, and he allows a high BABIP. Verlander, at this point in his career, also allows a high BABIP. Simpson is a starter, Gonzalez is more of a bench player, but lately Gonzalez is starting more.

Note that both are tied with Bo Bichette to three decimal places.

The NN produced this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.287, 0.715 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Quinn Priester.
0.280, 0.712 — Xavier Edwards batting at Brayan Bello.
0.301, 0.712 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Patrick Corbin.
0.301, 0.705 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Cal Quantrill.
0.291, 0.702 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting vs. Patrick Corbin.
0.292, 0.701 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Patrick Corbin.
0.301, 0.701 — Chandler Simpson batting at Justin Verlander.
0.287, 0.693 — Yandy Diaz batting at Justin Verlander.
0.264, 0.692 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Sean Burke.
0.269, 0.692 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Rico Garcia.

Andujar comes out on top on another low probability day. He’s hitting .370/.469/.778 since joining the Reds. That’s with a .407 BABIP. Bichette and Gonzalez stand as the consensus top two picks, however.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 6, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.343, 0.743 — Bo Bichette batting at Kyle Freeland.
0.330, 0.729 — Ernie Clement batting at Kyle Freeland.
0.329, 0.720 — Alejandro Kirk batting at Kyle Freeland.
0.321, 0.706 — Joey Loperfido batting at Kyle Freeland.
0.321, 0.721 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Kyle Freeland.
0.313, 0.720 — Jeremy Pena batting at Janson Junk.
0.311, 0.695 — Tyler Heineman batting at Kyle Freeland.
0.296, 0.677 — Addison Barger batting at Kyle Freeland.
0.292, 0.702 — Jose Altuve batting at Janson Junk.
0.289, 0.670 — Myles Straw batting at Kyle Freeland.
0.289, 0.699 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.

The Blue Jays get to take on the hittable Freeland. Note that Freeland pitched a bit better recently, allowing 25 hits in 26 2/3 innings since the start of July.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.343, 0.743 — Bo Bichette batting at Kyle Freeland.
0.330, 0.729 — Ernie Clement batting at Kyle Freeland.
0.287, 0.726 — Luis Arraez batting at Anthony DeSclafani.
0.321, 0.721 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Kyle Freeland.
0.313, 0.720 — Jeremy Pena batting at Janson Junk.
0.329, 0.720 — Alejandro Kirk batting at Kyle Freeland.
0.285, 0.707 — Miguel Andujar batting at Cade Horton.
0.321, 0.706 — Joey Loperfido batting at Kyle Freeland.
0.292, 0.702 — Jose Altuve batting at Janson Junk.
0.289, 0.699 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.

Bichette and Clement get unanimous nod from the two systems.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 5, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.309, 0.717 — Jeremy Pena batting at Cal Quantrill.
0.307, 0.714 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
0.304, 0.720 — Bo Bichette batting at Anthony Molina.
0.296, 0.711 — Ernie Clement batting at Anthony Molina.
0.291, 0.683 — Will Smith batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
0.290, 0.695 — Alejandro Kirk batting at Anthony Molina.
0.288, 0.696 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Zack Littell.
0.287, 0.683 — Andy Pages batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
0.287, 0.697 — Jose Altuve batting at Cal Quantrill.
0.285, 0.687 — Kerry Carpenter batting vs. Zebby Matthews.

Pena posted a 5 for 13 with a walk and two Ks in three games since returning from the illjured list.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.304, 0.720 — Bo Bichette batting at Anthony Molina.
0.309, 0.717 — Jeremy Pena batting at Cal Quantrill.
0.263, 0.715 — Luis Arraez batting at Ryne Nelson.
0.307, 0.714 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
0.296, 0.711 — Ernie Clement batting at Anthony Molina.
0.287, 0.697 — Jose Altuve batting at Cal Quantrill.
0.288, 0.696 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Zack Littell.
0.290, 0.695 — Alejandro Kirk batting at Anthony Molina.
0.282, 0.694 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Anthony Molina.
0.281, 0.692 — Yainer Diaz batting at Cal Quantrill.
0.263, 0.692 — Miguel Andujar batting at Shota Imanaga.

Bichette pops to the top in terms of probability at he plays at his father’s home field. Pena is the consensus top pick, Bichette the double down choice on another low probability day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 4, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

0.319, 0.744 — Luis Arraez batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
0.313, 0.723 — Bo Bichette batting at Tanner Gordon.
0.299, 0.707 — Ernie Clement batting at Tanner Gordon.
0.299, 0.699 — Alejandro Kirk batting at Tanner Gordon.
0.298, 0.705 — Trea Turner batting vs. Cade Povich.
0.296, 0.702 — Manny Machado batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
0.293, 0.707 — Jeremy Pena batting at Sandy Alcantara.
0.291, 0.700 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Sonny Gray.
0.291, 0.700 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Tanner Gordon.
0.290, 0.705 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Jason Alexander.

It looks like a pretty good day for the Blue Jays against Gordon. Arraez collected ten hits in 19 at bats against Pfaadt.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.319, 0.744 — Luis Arraez batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
0.313, 0.723 — Bo Bichette batting at Tanner Gordon.
0.293, 0.707 — Jeremy Pena batting at Sandy Alcantara.
0.299, 0.707 — Ernie Clement batting at Tanner Gordon.
0.290, 0.705 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Jason Alexander.
0.298, 0.705 — Trea Turner batting vs. Cade Povich.
0.296, 0.702 — Manny Machado batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
0.291, 0.700 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Sonny Gray.
0.291, 0.700 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Tanner Gordon.
0.299, 0.699 — Alejandro Kirk batting at Tanner Gordon.

This is a rare instance when both lists contain the same set of batters, with perfect agreement at the top. Arraez and Bichette stand as the unanimous double down choice. Arraez’s current hit streak is at 16 games.

July 29, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.308, 0.714 — Bo Bichette batting at Cade Povich.
0.299, 0.716 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Logan Evans.
0.294, 0.697 — Ernie Clement batting at Cade Povich.
0.292, 0.698 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Cade Povich.
0.290, 0.707 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Logan Evans.
0.290, 0.701 — Trea Turner batting at Jonathan Cannon.
0.287, 0.702 — Xavier Edwards batting at Sonny Gray.
0.286, 0.698 — Ivan Herrera batting vs. Sandy Alcantara.
0.284, 0.690 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.283, 0.703 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Erick Fedde.
0.281, 0.697 — Bo Bichette batting at Charlie Morton.
0.280, 0.685 — Steven Kwan batting vs. Tanner Gordon.

The list is out to twelve as the Blue Jays play a doubleheader in Baltimore today, and Povich is a best guess for starting one of the games, more likely game two. So it’s tough to know what the lineup will be like.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.299, 0.716 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Logan Evans.
0.308, 0.714 — Bo Bichette batting at Cade Povich.
0.290, 0.707 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Logan Evans.
0.283, 0.703 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Erick Fedde.
0.287, 0.702 — Xavier Edwards batting at Sonny Gray.
0.290, 0.701 — Trea Turner batting at Jonathan Cannon.
0.253, 0.699 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Sean Manaea.
0.292, 0.698 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Cade Povich.
0.286, 0.698 — Ivan Herrera batting vs. Sandy Alcantara.
0.281, 0.697 — Bo Bichette batting at Charlie Morton.
0.294, 0.697 — Ernie Clement batting at Cade Povich.
0.284, 0.690 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.280, 0.685 — Steven Kwan batting vs. Tanner Gordon.

So Wilson and Bichette are the consensus double down picks, but Wilson is still nursing a sore hand. Andujar and Turner might be a better double down choice and another low probability day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 28, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.316, 0.714 — Bo Bichette batting at Zach Eflin.
0.315, 0.706 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
0.308, 0.697 — Steven Kwan batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
0.306, 0.704 — Ernie Clement batting at Zach Eflin.
0.303, 0.703 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Zach Eflin.
0.297, 0.686 — Riley Greene batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.292, 0.722 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Frankie Montas.
0.291, 0.672 — Dillon Dingler batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.291, 0.682 — Kerry Carpenter batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.290, 0.707 — Xavier Edwards batting at Andre Pallante.
0.290, 0.670 — Tyler Heineman batting at Zach Eflin.

Most of Bichette’s OBP this season comes from hits. Eflin has become a low K pitcher to go with his low walk rate, so it’s a nice matchup for Bichette.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.292, 0.722 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Frankie Montas.
0.316, 0.714 — Bo Bichette batting at Zach Eflin.
0.290, 0.707 — Xavier Edwards batting at Andre Pallante.
0.282, 0.706 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Luis Castillo.
0.315, 0.706 — Jose Ramirez batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
0.306, 0.704 — Ernie Clement batting at Zach Eflin.
0.303, 0.703 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Zach Eflin.
0.283, 0.697 — Trea Turner batting at Davis Martin.
0.308, 0.697 — Steven Kwan batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
0.274, 0.697 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Luis Castillo.

Arraez owns a ten game hit streak, Bichette is at nine. Bichette is the consensus top pick, with Ramirez the consensus double down.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 25, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

0.297 — Austin Hays batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.295 — Austin Wynns batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.288 — Bo Bichette batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.288 — Gavin Lux batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.285 — Steven Kwan batting against Tanner Houck.
0.285 — Aaron Judge batting against Jose Berrios.
0.284 — T.J. Friedl batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.281 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.278 — Jorge Polanco batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.273 — Tyler Heineman batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.273 — Jake Fraley batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.273 — Santiago Espinal batting against Kyle Freeland.

Log5 posts an all Austin double down. Freeland is a low strikeout, low walk pitcher, so there are lots of balls in play against him and lots of those fall for hits. They play in Colorado tonight, and that tends to add hits as well.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

0.297, 0.694 — Austin Hays batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.285, 0.692 — Aaron Judge batting against Jose Berrios.
0.288, 0.686 — Bo Bichette batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.295, 0.685 — Austin Wynns batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.281, 0.684 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.285, 0.684 — Steven Kwan batting against Tanner Houck.
0.263, 0.682 — Jose Altuve batting against Seth Lugo.
0.267, 0.681 — Brendan Donovan batting against Chad Patrick.
0.245, 0.677 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Hayden Wesneski.
0.288, 0.674 — Gavin Lux batting against Kyle Freeland.

In 2023, Hays started striking out more, but also, it appears, hitting the ball harder. So even though he puts fewer balls in play, his BABIP went way up, and so far this season it’s at .417. Combine that with going against a pitcher who gives up hits in a park conducive to hitting, and you have all the ingredients for extending a hit streak.

Hays is the unanimous top pick, with Bichette and Wynns tied for the double down choice. Witt owns a 16-game hit streak.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 21, 2024

Best Batter Today

Monday’s games failed to change the order of the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain 1-2 on the list respectively. Both went two for four with a walk, Judge collecting a double, in a 5-4 Mariners win. The Mariners scored four times in the ninth inning off Clay Holmes after a great start by Marcus Stroman.

Judge knocked out seventeen extra-base hits in May. Since 1920, the most EXBH in the month is 26, by Ty Cobb in 1921. That was the year Cobb tried to hit homers. He hit 13 doubles, seven triples, and six home runs that month. Judge would need a very strong finish to catch Cobb.

Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts of the Dodgers rank third and fifth respectively. Ohtani singled and walked, while Betts singled in a 6-4 win over the Diamondbacks. Kyle Tucker of the Astros ranks fourth. Tucker singled and walked twice in a 9-7 Angels win.

Bo Bichette of the Blue Jays produced the best game score of the day, a 77, in a 9-3 win over the White Sox. Bichette went four for four with three doubles, but still owns just a .230/.289/.333 slash line. The Blue Jays have to hope this is the start of something big for their shortstop.

May 3, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.321 — Justin Turner batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.310 — Bo Bichette batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.309 — Jose Altuve batting against George Kirby.
0.300 — Ernie Clement batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.300 — Connor Wong batting against Chris Paddack.
0.299 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.292 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.291 — Davis Schneider batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.289 — Jeremy Pena batting against George Kirby.
0.288 — Jarren Duran batting against Chris Paddack.

Corbin presents the Blue Jays with an opportunity for lots of hits. Note that Clement and Schneider tend to be bench players, so they likely won’t start.

The NN produces these high probability of hit picks:

0.309, 0.725 — Jose Altuve batting against George Kirby.
0.279, 0.723 — Luis Arraez batting against JP Sears.
0.310, 0.705 — Bo Bichette batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.321, 0.702 — Justin Turner batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.280, 0.699 — Michael Harris II batting against Gavin Stone.
0.289, 0.690 — Jeremy Pena batting against George Kirby.
0.266, 0.686 — Mookie Betts batting against Charlie Morton.
0.259, 0.681 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jose Quintana.
0.274, 0.677 — Yainer Diaz batting against George Kirby.
0.300, 0.675 — Connor Wong batting against Chris Paddack.
0.256, 0.675 — William Contreras batting against Hayden Wesneski.
0.269, 0.675 — Ozzie Albies batting against Gavin Stone.

Altuve and Arraez rise above the Corbin cohort. Altuve does come out as the consensus top pick with Turner and Bichette tied for the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 14, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.310 — Bo Bichette batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.303 — Justin Turner batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.291 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.280 — Ernie Clement batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.279 — Davis Schneider batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.277 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.274 — Cavan Biggio batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.274 — Luis Garcia batting against Alex Wood.
0.274 — George Springer batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.273 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Kyle Freeland.

This list is more about Freeland than the Blue Jays hitters, although Bichette does well in the Beat the Streak lists. Freeland allowed a .296 BA since the start of 2022, and that’s well above league average. He pulls everyone up.

Here are the NN picks:

0.310, 0.715 — Bo Bichette batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.251, 0.698 — Luis Arraez batting against Charlie Morton.
0.303, 0.691 — Justin Turner batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.271, 0.685 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Bailey Ober.
0.255, 0.682 — Michael Harris II batting against Jesus Luzardo.
0.252, 0.681 — Freddie Freeman batting against Yu Darvish.
0.277, 0.681 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.250, 0.679 — Jose Altuve batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.274, 0.676 — Luis Garcia batting against Alex Wood.
0.291, 0.670 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Kyle Freeland.

Bichette and Turner come in as the consensus double down picks. Turner has a long history of success against Freeland, facing him 53 times with 16 hits, three walks, two hit by pitches, and just two strikeouts. Turner gets the bat on the ball against Freeland. Bichette owns a seven game hit streak.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

March 30, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.268 — Bo Bichette batting against Zack Littell.
0.268 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Austin Gomber.
0.264 — Ketel Marte batting against Austin Gomber.
0.263 — Yandy Diaz batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.261 — Gabriel Moreno batting against Austin Gomber.
0.260 — Spencer Steer batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.258 — Luis Arraez batting against Jared Jones.
0.257 — Freddie Freeman batting against Lance Lynn.
0.256 — Jake Fraley batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.256 — Mookie Betts batting against Lance Lynn.
0.256 — Corbin Carroll batting against Austin Gomber.

Bichette and Littell make a good combination, as Little is hittable but doesn’t give up a lot of walks. Gurriel owns four hits in his first ten PA of the season.

Here are the NN picks:

0.258, 0.704 — Luis Arraez batting against Jared Jones.
0.268, 0.693 — Bo Bichette batting against Zack Littell.
0.263, 0.689 — Yandy Diaz batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.257, 0.683 — Freddie Freeman batting against Lance Lynn.
0.254, 0.681 — Michael Harris II batting against Aaron Nola.
0.251, 0.678 — Ronald Acuna batting against Aaron Nola.
0.268, 0.676 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Austin Gomber.
0.251, 0.675 — Harold Ramirez batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
0.252, 0.668 — Corey Seager batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.256, 0.667 — Mookie Betts batting against Lance Lynn.

The NN puts the most weight on the three season performance of the hitter, and Arraez owns a .310 hit average since the start of 2022. His 0 for 11 PA top start the season is not enough to drag him out of the top slot.

Bichette is the consensus first pick with Diaz the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

March 29, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.273 — Luis Arraez batting against Martin Perez.
0.259 — Josh Naylor batting against Ross Stripling.
0.255 — Bo Bichette batting against Aaron Civale.
0.254 — Masataka Yoshida batting against George Kirby.
0.254 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.253 — Freddie Freeman batting against Zack Thompson.
0.252 — Yandy Diaz batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.250 — Jose Ramirez batting against Ross Stripling.
0.250 — Gabriel Moreno batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.249 — Steven Kwan batting against Ross Stripling.
0.249 — Mookie Betts batting against Zack Thompson.

Everyone is going to be pretty close for 2024, as the current MLB hit average is still the best guess for everyone. So this list is based mostly on the two previous seasons and a little bit of 2024. After an 0 for 6 on opening day, Arraez is due.

Here are the NN picks:

0.273, 0.716 — Luis Arraez batting against Martin Perez.
0.255, 0.683 — Bo Bichette batting against Aaron Civale.
0.253, 0.680 — Freddie Freeman batting against Zack Thompson.
0.252, 0.677 — Yandy Diaz batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.245, 0.671 — Harold Ramirez batting against Chris Bassitt.
0.259, 0.669 — Josh Naylor batting against Ross Stripling.
0.254, 0.667 — Masataka Yoshida batting against George Kirby.
0.254, 0.662 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.244, 0.658 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Harrison.
0.249, 0.658 — Mookie Betts batting against Zack Thompson.

Keep your eye on Naylor this year as a Beat the Streak regular. He plays at the peak seasonal age of 27, and last year he brought a low K rate and a low walk rate even lower while increasing his BABIP. Like Arraez, he puts the ball in play, and last year lots of good things happened.

Note that with very little data for 2024, the probabilities are going to be low. As the best hitters of the year shake out, you’ll see those rise.

Arraez stands as the agreed top pick. Bichette comes in as the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

March 28, 2024

My Three Sons

Three baseball sons on the Blue Jays post good games as Toronto defeats the Rays 8-2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up just one hit in five at bats, but the one hit left the park. Bo Bichette doubled, singled and walked, driving in two runs and scoring one. Cavan Biggio got his starting job back this year. He homered and walked twice, scoring twice.

These are the three players that were supposed to be at the heart of the Blue Jays resurgence, and today they delivered.

October 1, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.311 — Joey Meneses batting against Dylan Dodd.
0.306 — Luis Arraez batting against Andre Jackson.
0.304 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.302 — Ronald Acuna batting against Jackson Rutledge.
0.299 — Luis Garcia batting against Dylan Dodd.
0.297 — Corey Seager batting against George Kirby.
0.294 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jose Urena.
0.292 — Michael Harris II batting against Jackson Rutledge.
0.292 — Yainer Diaz batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.290 — Freddie Freeman batting against Kyle Harrison.
0.290 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Ryne Nelson.

We will see if Arraez starts today. If Miami wins on Sunday, they don’t need to play the make-up inning on Monday. If they lose and Arizona wins, the Marlins may want to play Monday for the higher seed, or they may just forfeit preferring less travel.

Here are the NN picks:

0.306, 0.756 — Luis Arraez batting against Andre Jackson.
0.290, 0.722 — Freddie Freeman batting against Kyle Harrison.
0.302, 0.720 — Ronald Acuna batting against Jackson Rutledge.
0.287, 0.719 — Bo Bichette batting against Jacob Lopez.
0.281, 0.713 — Harold Ramirez batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.292, 0.713 — Michael Harris II batting against Jackson Rutledge.
0.304, 0.712 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryne Nelson.
0.311, 0.712 — Joey Meneses batting against Dylan Dodd.
0.297, 0.708 — Corey Seager batting against George Kirby.
0.289, 0.703 — Michael Brantley batting against Ryne Nelson.

Two somewhat different rankings today. I assume Freeman will play to go for a 60th double. Given who and who may not start, Freeman and Bichette might be the double down. Based on the lists, however, the double down would be Arraez and Acuna. Note that on a final day with nothing to gain, someone may start and come out after two or three innings.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 28, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.348 — Luis Arraez batting against David Peterson.
0.342 — Freddie Freeman batting against Chris Flexen.
0.342 — Bo Bichette batting against Luke Weaver.
0.308 — Mookie Betts batting against Chris Flexen.
0.306 — Whit Merrifield batting against Luke Weaver.
0.303 — Amed Rosario batting against Chris Flexen.
0.297 — J.D. Martinez batting against Chris Flexen.
0.295 — Ernie Clement batting against Luke Weaver.
0.291 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Luke Weaver.
0.290 — Kevin Kiermaier batting against Luke Weaver.

It looks like a good day to be hitting for the Dodgers or Blue Jays. Arraez did not play either game of the doubleheader on Wednesday and should be picked with caution.

Here are the NN picks:

0.348, 0.772 — Luis Arraez batting against David Peterson.
0.342, 0.752 — Freddie Freeman batting against Chris Flexen.
0.342, 0.748 — Bo Bichette batting against Luke Weaver.
0.303, 0.705 — Amed Rosario batting against Chris Flexen.
0.308, 0.704 — Mookie Betts batting against Chris Flexen.
0.268, 0.701 — Ronald Acuna batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.306, 0.698 — Whit Merrifield batting against Luke Weaver.
0.281, 0.698 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Dean Kremer.
0.279, 0.697 — Corey Seager batting against Logan Gilbert.
0.259, 0.693 — Michael Harris II batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.273, 0.693 — Yonathan Daza batting against Ryan Yarbrough.
0.297, 0.693 — J.D. Martinez batting against Chris Flexen.

The two systems agree on the top three, so either Arraez and Freeman are the double down, or Freeman and Bichette. I suppose that with the Braves clinching the top spot in the NL, Freeman and Betts may get a rest today. Bichette and Merrifield may be the best bet for a double down. I hope the Dodgers let Freeman play, since Coors field would be a great place to pick up two doubles.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 23, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.330 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ross Stripling.
0.313 — Nico Hoerner batting against Chris Flexen.
0.312 — Bo Bichette batting against Zack Littell.
0.311 — Cody Bellinger batting against Chris Flexen.
0.299 — Seiya Suzuki batting against Chris Flexen.
0.298 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.297 — Luis Campusano batting against Jake Woodford.
0.295 — Yan Gomes batting against Chris Flexen.
0.293 — Mookie Betts batting against Ross Stripling.
0.293 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Lyles.

The Braves at the Nationals is already postponed due to weather. Freeman is four for fourteen against Stripling with a walk and four Ks.

Here are the NN picks:

0.312, 0.729 — Bo Bichette batting against Zack Littell.
0.242, 0.727 — Luis Arraez batting against Brandon Woodruff.
0.298, 0.712 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.313, 0.710 — Nico Hoerner batting against Chris Flexen.
0.281, 0.710 — Harold Ramirez batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.293, 0.706 — Jose Altuve batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.280, 0.700 — Corey Seager batting against Logan Gilbert.
0.276, 0.697 — Yandy Diaz batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.292, 0.697 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jake Woodford.
0.311, 0.691 — Cody Bellinger batting against Chris Flexen.

Arraez came out of Friday’s game against the Brewers after Milwaukee scored 12 runs in the second inning. The team felt is was better to rest their star hitter instead of risking further injury in a blow out. Bichette is hitting .189/.241/.283 since returning from the illjured list. Bichette and Hoerner are the consensus double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 19, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.314 — Luis Arraez batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.304 — Joey Meneses batting against Jose Urena.
0.303 — Bo Bichette batting against Clarke Schmidt.
0.296 — Nico Hoerner batting against Bailey Falter.
0.296 — Julio Rodriguez batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.293 — Cody Bellinger batting against Bailey Falter.
0.290 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.287 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Hunter Brown.
0.285 — Gabriel Moreno batting against Alex Cobb.
0.283 — Lane Thomas batting against Jose Urena.

Both Hoerner and Arraez are working on decent hitting streaks, Hoerner at 12 games and Arraez at nine games.

Here are the NN picks:

0.314, 0.761 — Luis Arraez batting against Joey Lucchesi.
0.303, 0.724 — Bo Bichette batting against Clarke Schmidt.
0.304, 0.715 — Joey Meneses batting against Jose Urena.
0.282, 0.707 — Ronald Acuna batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
0.266, 0.706 — Freddie Freeman batting against Miguel Diaz.
0.276, 0.705 — Michael Harris II batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
0.278, 0.704 — Harold Ramirez batting against Patrick Sandoval.
0.296, 0.703 — Nico Hoerner batting against Bailey Falter.
0.296, 0.703 — Julio Rodriguez batting against Paul Blackburn.
0.287, 0.703 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Hunter Brown.

The two systems show close agreement at the top with Arraez the unanimous top pick, Bichette and Meneses tied for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 15, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.316 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Greinke.
0.313 — Bo Bichette batting against Brayan Bello.
0.311 — Freddie Freeman batting against George Kirby.
0.310 — Yainer Diaz batting against Zack Greinke.
0.306 — Michael Brantley batting against Zack Greinke.
0.304 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Zack Greinke.
0.298 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Zack Greinke.
0.297 — Luis Arraez batting against Bryce Elder.
0.296 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.293 — Cody Bellinger batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
0.293 — Yandy Diaz batting against Jack Flaherty.

Altuve and Brantley graced the top ten for many sesaons, but it took a waning Greinke to bring them back to the top. He allows a .283 BA this season, with low K and BB rates. Batters put the ball in play against him, playing to the strengths of Altuve and Brantley.

Here are the NN picks:

0.297, 0.747 — Luis Arraez batting against Bryce Elder.
0.313, 0.736 — Bo Bichette batting against Brayan Bello.
0.311, 0.734 — Freddie Freeman batting against George Kirby.
0.316, 0.718 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Greinke.
0.306, 0.717 — Michael Brantley batting against Zack Greinke.
0.296, 0.716 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jack Flaherty.
0.292, 0.716 — Ronald Acuna batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.284, 0.711 — Michael Harris II batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.310, 0.707 — Yainer Diaz batting against Zack Greinke.
0.293, 0.706 — Yandy Diaz batting against Jack Flaherty.

Both Y. Diazes make the list. Yandy is one of the top hitters in the game, with a 3/4/5 slash line. Yainer, a rooke catcher for Houston, has the high BA with few walks, making him likely to get a hit, but not likely to get on base. On top of that, forty one of this 94 hits went for extra bases.

Bichette comes in as the consensus top pick, as both systems rank him second. Altuve would be the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!