Tag Archives: Ty Blach

September 7, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Blach liners matter, as opponents manage a line drive against him 25.2% of the time. The Brewers look like good bets to take advantage of that, although they are playing in Milwaukee today. Note that the Nationals and Pirates play a doubleheader, so be careful picking from those games.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

The NN list depends more on the batter than the pitcher, so this list produces a more diverse list of teams. It’s the fourth day in a row for a high probability of a hit from Arraez, who owns a six-game hit streak. Chourio ranks as the consensus top pick, with Arraez the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 1, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It looks like a blow out for the Orioles today, as eight of their position players make the list against Blach in Colorado. Note that the Log5 Method does not make an adjustment for the park; the NN does that. Blach owns a low K rate of 4.81 per 9 IP, walks few batters, gives up lots of home runs, and opponents own a .348 BABIP against him.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

Only four Orioles make this list, but the two systems agree on the top as O’Hearn and Jimenez rank as the double down choice on both.

Note that today is the last year you can start a streak and still have a chance at reaching 57 games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 18, 2024

Games of the Day

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Ty Blach leads the Rockies against Kyle Harrison and the Giants. Blach pitches in long relief and starts. So far he has yet to allow a home run in 18 innings. Harrison improved his ERA compared to his rookie season of 2023 by about 0.7 runs by cutting his home run rate in half.

The first place Brewers send Bryse Wilson against the surging Astros and Justin Verlander. Wilson made starts in his last four appearances, posting a 2.21 ERA despite walking 13 batters in 20 1/3 innings. A win today gives Verlander 260 for his career, and would tie him for 41st place with Ted Lyons.

Enjoy!

August 10, 2023

Games of the Day

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Toronto and Cleveland may produce more than one run this afternoon as Alek Manoah takes on Noah Syndergaard. Manoah continues to struggle with his control since his return from the minors, walking five batters per nine innings. Syndergaard pitched one good game and one bad game since joining the Guardians. He struck out just three batters in 11 1/3 innings.

The Rockies face the Dodgers in Los Angeles as Ty Blach gets to battle Clayton Kershaw as Kershaw returns from the illjured list. Blach pitched better as a starter this season. He owns a 2.84 ERA in that role, versus 6.75 as a reliever. Kershaw for his career is 27-11 against the Rockies with a 3.33 ERA. At home, however, his ERA against the Rockies stands at 1.81.

July 13, 2020

Blach Ligament Matters

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Ty Blach needs Tommy John surgery.

“Ty put himself in a really nice position,” Hyde said. “He worked real hard the last three months and he’s never been on the IL before in his career. And to just feel something wrong in the second inning of an intrasquad and it turns out to be Tommy John surgery, your heart goes out to him because of the work that he’s put in, and he’s a great guy. His makeup is fantastic. He’s an ultra-team guy, so that’s sad that he’s going to have surgery.”

MASNSports.com

It’s tough to see this as a loss for the Orioles. Blach, in 326 1/3 MLB innings owns a 4.99 ERA. He strikes out batters at a rate that would have been impressive in 1920, but leads to too many hits in 2020.

August 18, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Blach faced 57 batters this season and allowed 21 hits and seven walks. He facing a very good offensive team, so it’s not surprising the Red Sox players are popping to the top of this list.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.316, 0.750 — Michael Brantley batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.333, 0.748 — Rafael Devers batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.322, 0.742 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ty Blach.
  • 0.302, 0.734 — Hanser Alberto batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
  • 0.300, 0.733 — Christian Yelich batting against Erick Fedde.
  • 0.301, 0.731 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.298, 0.730 — Jose Altuve batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.302, 0.730 — Daniel Santana batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.266, 0.725 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Michael Clevinger.
  • 0.312, 0.724 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Ty Blach.

Brantley beats out Devers on the NN, but just by a smidgen. Devers is the consensus first pick, Brantley the consensus second pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 11, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.333 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ty Blach.
0.321 — David Peralta batting against Matt Harvey.
0.311 — Starling Marte batting against Ty Blach.
0.306 — Adam Frazier batting against Ty Blach.
0.301 — David Freese batting against Ty Blach.
0.300 — Austin Meadows batting against Ty Blach.
0.299 — Elias Diaz batting against Ty Blach.
0.298 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.297 — A.J. Pollock batting against Matt Harvey.
0.295 — Matt M Duffy batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.295 — Mookie Betts batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.294 — Jon Jay batting against Matt Harvey.
0.289 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Matt Harvey.
0.288 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Ty Blach.
0.288 — Josh Harrison batting against Ty Blach.
0.284 — Colin Moran batting against Ty Blach.
0.284 — Albert Almora batting against Tanner Roark.
0.284 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.283 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Matt Harvey.
0.281 — Mookie Betts batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.279 — Miguel Andujar batting against Drew Hutchison.
0.279 — Joey Wendle batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.279 — Jordy Mercer batting against Ty Blach.
0.279 — Javier Baez batting against Tanner Roark.
0.278 — Josh Bell batting against Ty Blach.

With a .311 BA and a .344 OBP, Dickerson reaches base mostly by hits, which is the kind of batter one needs to extend a streak. He suffered some injuries this season, so the Pirates don’t start him every day, however. In general, it looks like a good day for the Pirates against Blach, who gives up a lot of hits by not a lot of walks.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.333, 0.741 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ty Blach.
0.321, 0.734 — David Peralta batting against Matt Harvey.
0.298, 0.729 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.284, 0.723 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.295, 0.720 — Mookie Betts batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.277, 0.720 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jon Lester.
0.311, 0.719 — Starling Marte batting against Ty Blach.
0.295, 0.716 — Matt M Duffy batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.281, 0.714 — Mookie Betts batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.284, 0.713 — Albert Almora batting against Tanner Roark.
0.306, 0.709 — Adam Frazier batting against Ty Blach.
0.271, 0.705 — Freddie Freeman batting against Wade Miley.
0.275, 0.703 — Jose Martinez batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.269, 0.703 — Scooter Gennett batting against Robbie Ray.
0.279, 0.702 — Javier Baez batting against Tanner Roark.
0.271, 0.702 — Nick Markakis batting against Wade Miley.
0.279, 0.701 — Miguel Andujar batting against Drew Hutchison.
0.277, 0.700 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.267, 0.700 — Nolan Arenado batting against Walker Buehler.
0.297, 0.699 — A.J. Pollock batting against Matt Harvey.
0.294, 0.699 — Jon Jay batting against Matt Harvey.
0.261, 0.698 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Walker Buehler.
0.271, 0.697 — Adam Jones batting against William Cuevas.
0.263, 0.697 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.270, 0.696 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.301, 0.696 — David Freese batting against Ty Blach.
0.258, 0.696 — Eddie Rosario batting against Francisco Liriano.

Dickerson and Peralta are the unanimous first and second choices. Note that some Red Sox players appear twice on the list, as they play a double header against the Orioles.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

March 29, 2018

The Literal One Run Game

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The Giants beat the Dodgers 1-0 in Los Angeles to open the 2018 season. Ty Blach pitched five shutout innings, beating Clayton Kershaw who allowed a foul pole home run to Joe Panik. Basically, the game was inches from a double shutout.

The Giants held the Dodgers to six hits as Blach and the bullpen struck out 10 batters. Two of those hits came off the bat of Clayton Kershaw, which makes one wonder why the rest of the team had such a hard time making contact. Dodgers batters did draw five walks to the Giants two. San Francisco batter weren’t exactly great, as they struck out 11 times. They did collect eight hits.