Category Archives: Team Evaluation

November 4, 2025

Results Versus Feelings

Dylan Hernandez points out the the problem with thinking of a three-peat; the Dodgers are old:

Ordinarily, a team as old as the Dodgers would have to consider a roster makeover. Freddie Freeman and Miguel Rojas will be 37 by the start of the next World Series. Max Muncy will be 36, Kiké Hernández 35, Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernández 34 and Shohei Ohtani 32.

But under these circumstances, how could the Dodgers think of breaking up their team?

How could they unload any of their superstars, regardless of how much they could decline in the next year? How could they not retain their key free agents, regardless of how old they are?

They can’t, they can’t and they can’t.

LATimes via Sports.Yahoo.com

When the Yankees repeated as World Series Champs in 1999, their core consisted of Derek Jeter, seasonal age 25, Jorge Posada 28, Bernie Williams 30, Andy Pettitte 27, and Mariano Rivera 29. That’s not the Dodgers.

The Dodgers big three, Mookie Betts, Freeman and Ohtani will stick. Nimble teams replace the roster gradually to keep the complementary players young. The 1990s Braves did this superbly, replacing at least one weak player every season with a better one. The Dodgers did this well for a long time (Max Muncy is the best example). Gone are the day, however, when they could just dip into their minor league system and pull out an excellent starter, or a talented position player.

Front office honcho Andrew Friedman won’t be swayed by feelings. When he ran the Rays, I wondered what he could do for a team with plenty of money. He answered that question by building a juggernaut. He’s now pushing up against the limits of age and the lack of low draft picks. I would not bet on a three-peat for this team as currently configured. I expect Friedman wants the third championship in a row, but he will jettison and acquire to reach that goal. The feelings will go out the window.

October 3, 2025

2025 ALDS Preview, Tigers Versus Mariners

The Tigers and Mariners play the last game of Day 1 of the LDS round in Seattle at 8:30 PM EDT. Seattle won the season series 4-2. The Mariners try to take the first step toward winning their first AL Pennant.

The following table compares the offenses of the two teams:

2025 AL RanksTigersMariners
Runs per Game4.68 (5th)4.73 (4th)
Batting Average.247 (7th).244 (9th)
On-Base Average.316 (6th).320 (4th)
Slugging Percentage.413 (6th).420 (5th)
Home Runs198 (5th)238 (2nd)
Stolen Base Percentage79.2 (5th)81.3 (1st)
BABIP.298 (4th).287 (8th)

The two teams finished separated by just 0.05 runs per game. My first glance through the stats made me think that there should be a bigger gap, due to the Mariners high home run total. The difference between the home run totals is not really reflected in the difference in Slugging Percentage. In looking at the other base hits, the Tigers led the AL in triples with 36, twelve more than the second place Red Sox and 27 more than the Mariners, who finished last in the AL in that category. We’ll see if triples make a difference in the ALDS.

The following table compares pitching and defense between the two teams.

2025 AL RanksTigersMariners
Runs Allowed per Game4.27 (8th)4.28 (9th)
Earned Run Average3.91 (9th)3.87 (6th)
Strikeouts per 9 IP8.6 (7th)8.8 (5th)
Walks per 9 IP3.0 (4th)2.8 (1st)
Home Runs per 200 IP26.0 (6th)26.3 (7th)
Defensive Efficiency.702 (7th).703 (6th)

This strikes me as about as two teams can be. The Tigers are ever so slightly better in runs allowed per game, but the Mariners are slightly better in three-true outcomes. Even defensive efficiency is almost the same.

How to choose between two very evenly matched teams? Home field and batter home runs in my mind give the Mariners a slight advantage over the Tigers. I give the Mariners a 51% chance of advancing to the ALCS, but you might as well flip a coin.

October 3, 2025

2025 ALDS Preview, Yankees Versus Blue Jays

The Yankees and Blue Jays kick off the outer seeds pairing of the ALDS at 4 PM EDT on Saturday in Toronto. The teams finished with the same record atop the AL East, but Toronto won the season series 8-5, making them AL East Champions with the best record in the American League.

The following table compares the offense of the two teams:

2025 AL RanksYankeesBlue Jays
Runs per Game5.24 (1st)4.93 (2nd)
Batting Average.251 (4th).265 (1st)
On-Base Average.332 (2nd).333 (1st)
Slugging Percentage.455 (1st).427 (3rd)
Home Runs274 (1st)191 (6th)
Stolen Base Percentage77.9 (8th)75.5 (12th)
BABIP.290 (7th).298 (4th)

While the two teams finished close in their ranking of runs per game, the Yankees finished over 0.3 runs per game better. That’s a bigger gap than between the Jays in second place and the Tigers in 5th place (4.68 R/G). The Blue Jays finished a hair better in OBP, but the Yankees hit 83 more home runs, or an extra home run every other game. Due to their power, the Yankees moved runners much farther toward home. (Remember, slugging average is actually a measure of distance.) Neither team is particularly good at stealing. When the Blue Jays are putting the ball in the field of play, they do get better results than the Yankees.

The next table looks at pitching and defense.

2025 AL RanksYankeesBlue Jays
Runs Allowed per Game4.23 (7th)4.45 (10th)
Earned Run Average3.91 (7th)4.19 (10th)
Strikeouts per 9 IP9.0 (2nd)8.95 (3rd)
Walks per 9 IP3.5 (12th)3.2 (8th)
Home Runs per 200 IP24.3 (5th)29.1 (12th)
Defensive Efficiency.708 (2nd).700 (8th)

Although the Yankees do have good front line starters, overall they are middle of the road in the AL on the pitching side, and the Blue Jays are a little worse. Both staffs take away ball in play opportunities with high strikeout and walk rates. That hurts the Blue Jays offense more than the Yankees, since their offense is more dependent on balls finding holes in the defense. New York’s defense was actually pretty good at turning batted balls into outs, and that hurst the Toronto offense further.

The big difference, again, comes from the home run rates. Toronto posted a very high home run rate, and that plays right into the Yankees strength.

The Yankees certainly look like the better team. The best of three series doesn’t really mess up the rotation that much. Yes, in game one the bye team sends an ace against a number four, then in game two, the number two starter for the bye teams faces the number one starter for the wild card team. So the middle three game, the WC team gets a pitching advantage.

Combine that with the Blue Jays presenting a poor counter to the strength of the Yankees hitters, I give New York a 54% chance of returning to the ALCS.

October 3, 2025

2025 NLDS Preview, Cubs Versus Brewers

The Cubs and Brewers start their series Saturday at 2 PM EDT in a battle between the outer seeds. Chicago won the season series between the teams 7-6. The Brewers should be the rooting favorite as they have the longest streak of not winning the World Series of teams still alive, having never won since the franchise inception in 1969 as the Seattle Pilots.

Here is a comparison of the offenses in 2025:

NL RanksCubsBrewers
Runs per Game4.90 (3rd)4.98 (2nd)
Batting Average.249 (7th).258 (1st)
On-Base Average.320 (7th).332 (1st)
Slugging Percentage.430 (4th).403 (6th)
Home Runs223 (3rd)166 (9th)
Stolen Base Percentage82.1 (2nd)75.6 (11th)
BABIP.283 (14th).305 (1st)

In terms of runs per game, the teams are very close and very good. They did get to that high level in different ways. The Brewers generated base runners with both hits and walks, and the more men a team puts on base, the more likely they will be pushed around to score. The Cubs were okay at getting men on base, but they generated power, and power moves runners a long distance. Given their stolen base percentage, the Cubs were also good at moving runners that way.

Both are low strikeout teams, the Brewers ranking third and the Cubs fourth in fewest batter Ks. So a big difference in the team OBP comes from Milwaukee’s high BABIP.

The following table compares the teams on pitching and defense:

2025 NL RanksCubsBrewers
Runs Allowed per Game4.01 (5th)3.91 (2nd)
Earned Run Average3.81 (5th)3.59 (1st)
Strikeouts per 9 IP7.9 (12th)8.9 (3rd)
Walks per 9 IP2.5 (1st)3.3 (10th)
Home Runs per 200 IP28.2 (13th)23.3 (4th)
Defensive Efficiency.719 (1st).709 (4th)

On this side of the ball, the Brewers are once again ahead of the Cubs by about a tenth of a run, although that would be a bigger lead if Milwaukee had cut down on unearned runs. Note that the Cubs pitchers feed into a Brewers offensive strength. Chicago hurlers strikeout few and walk few batters, so the Brewers should be able to put the ball in play, and the Brewers are very successful when they put the ball in play. Balancing that a bit is the Cubs ability to turn batted balls into outs. Will they cancel each other?

Milwaukee is good at preventing home runs, and that hurts a Cubs strength, while Chicago pitchers see lots of ball leave the park.

Milwaukee looks like the better team. It’s close, however, and with better home run power, the Cubs could win the low scoring games with their power. The Brewers should have the advantage, so I give them a 53% chance of advancing to the NLCS.

October 3, 2025

2025 NLDS Preview, Dodgers Versus Phillies

The Dodgers head to Philadelphia for the middle seed version of the NLDS. The Phillies won the NL East easily. The Dodgers were usually in first place during the season, with the Padres sneaking into the top slot int he NL West once in a while. The Dodgers are attempting to become the first team this century to repeat as World Series Champions.

Here is a comparison of the team offenses:

2025 NL RanksDodgersPhillies
Runs per Game5.09 (1st)4.80 (5th)
Batting Average.253 (3rd).258 (1st)
On-Base Average.327 (3rd).328 (2nd)
Slugging Percentage.441 (1st).431 (3rd)
Home Runs244 (1st)212 (5th)
Stolen Base Percentage77.9 (4th)80.5 (3rd)
BABIP.289 (12th).303 (2nd)

The Phillies generate a lot of hits, the Dodgers a lot of home runs. The 32 extra homers was a big part of the 47 run difference between the two teams. That said, the two teams boast the two best home run hitters in the NL. Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies hit 56 dingers, with Shohei Ohtani right behind at 55. Ohtani ranked as the better power hitter, however, as he led the NL in extra-base hits and total bases, and beat Schwarber in slugging percentage by 59 points.

Note that the Phillies runs per game underperformed their averages. They hit fine situationally, but their lineup construction may have caused the problem. The top three batting slots did a great job of getting on base, but the number four hitters slugged just .408. On top of that, the biggest power slot was the two hole, but number nine hitters got on base at just a .307 clip. They probably would have ranked a tiny bit higher with a better lineup.

Here is the pitching and defense comparison:

2025 NL RanksDodgersPhillies
Runs Allowed per Game4.22 (7th)4.00 (4th)
Earned Run Average3.95 (8th)3.79 (4th)
Strikeouts per 9 IP9.4 (1st)9.2 (2nd)
Walks per 9 IP3.5 (12th)2.7 (2nd)
Home Runs per 200 IP24.3 (6th)24.6 (7th)
Defensive Efficiency.704 (6th).691 (10th)

It’s odd to see the Dodgers rank low in so many pitching categories, but they get a lot of leading the NL in strikeout rate. The Dodgers limit hits in two ways, with the high K rate and the high defensive efficiency. The Phillies, however, are very close in Ks, but much better at keeping batters off base by limiting walks. They are not as good at turning batted balls into outs.

This looks like a pretty even series. Both offenses hit, get on base, and power the ball. Both teams do a similar job of limiting runs, the Dodgers limiting hits and the Phillies limiting walks. The Dodgers advantage in offense is pretty much matched by the Phillies advantage in pitching and defense. Both teams use hitters that are capable of homering in a low scoring game.

I give the Phillies a very slight edge, mostly due to home field advantage. I see them as having a .52 probability of winning their NLDS.

September 29, 2025

Mets Narrative

In reading various stories (an example here) about the failure of the Mets to reach the post season, reporters concentrate on June 12 as the start of the fall. After games of that day, the Mets did own the best record in baseball, but they and the Phillies were already ebbing and flowing through the season, trading highs and lows. After June 12th, the Mets went on a 1-10 run, but it it left them just 1 1/2 games behind Philadelphia. On the morning of July 28, the Mets had recovered enough to own a 1 1/2 game lead over Philadelphia.

From that point forward, the offenses played similarly. The Mets batters posted a .260/.333/.452 slash line with 91 home runs, and great numbers with men in scoring position. The Phillies batters came in at .265/.327/.464 with 89 home runs, and decent numbers with men in scoring position, but lots of power with men on base.

The Phillies owned the pitching side, however. Phillies pitchers allowed a .246/.298/.401 slash line, while the Mets pitchers came in at .261/.330/.414. It went deeper than that, however. If you scroll down in the links to the starter/relief splits, you will see that Phillies starters faced about 200 more batters than the Mets in that time frame. You can also see why, as the Mets starters allowed a .343 OBP to .290. The Mets failure was a failure of the starting pitching. They got in holes early, and forced the bullpen into games earlier. The Phillies despite losing Zack Wheeler, one of the few pitchers who went consistently deep in games, managed to keep their pen fresh.

Here are the individual main Mets starters before 7/28 and from 7/28 on. They went from excellent to terrible. So it wasn’t poor trades, it wasn’t a mismanaged bullpen, it was simply injuries to starters and many replacements pitching poorly.

September 28, 2025

The Colorado Nightmare is Over

In a fitting final game to their terrible season, the Giants beat the Rockies 4-0. Colorado managed 43 wins, just enough to not be the worst of the modern era, but below replacement level nonetheless. Rockies batters managed just five hits and struck out 13 times, starter Logan Webb of the Giants recording eight of those Ks in 5 1/3 innings.

The rebuild needs to start now. That’s three years in a row that MLB had teams flirt with the 1962 Mets. It’s not good for the game. The incentives not to tank have not encouraged teams to immediately improve when they play poorly.

July 26, 2025

Blue Jays Temporarily Stopped

Tarik Skubal of the Tigers tamed Toronto batters Saturday evening, pitching six scoreless innings. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Kevin Gausman gassed the Detroit batters, allowing one hit and striking out ten in his six shutout innings. The Blue Jays then bombed the bullpen with six runs in the final two innings to beat Detroit 6-1.

Note that the Blue Jays changed their pattern here. During their current 19-4 streak, Toronto usually pounded the starting pitchers. Tonight they have their fire power for the pen, but the results were the same, another victory.

July 17, 2025

Watching the Rockies

Pat Graham at the AP provides an overview of the Rockies dismal season. The franchise remains strong in one regard:

One thing that really hasn’t been hurt by the slide is attendance. The Rockies are currently averaging 30,128 fans at Coors Field this season. That’s on pace with last season (31,360) and higher than their World Series run in 2007 (28,979).

Part of the explanation for steady attendance is the opposition: The New York Mets and Dodgers, for instance, remain big draws when they come to town.

Part of it is promotional: The Rockies invited every “Ryan” to attend a game on June 20 for a gathering of “Ryans.” Fittingly, Ryan McMahon homered on “Ryan Day” in a 14-8 loss to Arizona.

And part of that is simply setting: Coors Field, which opened in 1995, remains a popular gathering place. It boasts “The Rooftop” in right field, with a view of the Front Range.

Chron.com

Good attendance puts less pressure on the team to win now. At some point, they will need to successfully rebuild to keep those fans coming back.

July 10, 2025

Revenge for ’69

The Orioles licked the Mets in a doubleheader Thursday afternoon, taking the early game 3-1 and the evening tilt 7-3. The Orioles are now 26-17 starting May 24th, a .605 winning percentage. Unfortunately, the hole they dug early in the season means that even with that great stretch they are still 11 1/2 games out of first place.

Gunnar Henderson had a big day, collecting four hits, including a double and a homer. He’s done good job of getting on base during this streak.

July 4, 2025

The Everyone Else Blue Jays

The Blue Jays started their run for first place on May 28 and stand 23-10, .697 in that time. The are tied with the Astros for the best record in the majors during that stretch, the Astros taking a commanding lead in the AL West, while Toronto lead the AL East by one game.

This hot streak is mostly thanks to the offense. Note that the Blue Jays own a run difference of 35 in that time, tied for fourth highest in the majors. They scored the most runs, 192 and allowed the sixth most, 157.

The offense mostly comes from their non-stars. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit well, but nothing like an MVP. Bo Bichette owns a .295 OBP, but did generate some power. The complementary players to those two really stepped up, doing a great job of getting on base. Ernie Clement, Alejandro Kirk, and George Springer all own OBPs over .390 in that stretch. Addison Barger is at .353. Part timers Davis Schneider, Nathan Lukes, and Andres Jimenez conserved outs as well.

I suspect that group as a whole is playing a bit over their heads. Clearly, the Jays were a bit lucky during the streak as well. Guerrero, Bichette, and some of the starting pitchers have upside for the rest of the season. If they can step up as the other regress a bit, the Blue Jays could see first place through to the end of the season.

June 1, 2025

No Pitching

The Athletics started the season on a promising note. After games of May 5, they stood 20-16, one game out of first place in the AL West. Since then, they reverted to the form of the 2023 Oakland club, posting a 3-19 record, a .136 winning percentage. Amazingly, that is the second worst record in the majors in that time, as the Rockies went 3-21, .125.

The Athletics record strikes me as unusual. Normally when a team plays that poorly, nothing goes right. The Rockies are a perfect example. This season, they posted the lowest runs scored per game and the highest runs allowed per game. During this streak, the Athletics offense owns a .252/.322/.414 slash line. Not gang busters, but nothing to make one think there is anything particularly wrong with the batters. The majors in that time come in a .249/.317/.403. The team did score just 4.00 runs per game, 19th in the majors during that time. They hit just .237 with men in scoring position, but that might just be bad luck.

The pitching, on the other hand, is ghastly. Opponents hit .308/.383/.572 against them. Batters against the A’s pitchers are a combination of James Wood, Jose Ramirez, and Alex Bregman. The allowed 177 runs, 7.7 per game! That’s 0.7 runs more per game than the Rockies since May 6.

One of the great quotes from the movie Annie Hall is about the difference between miserable and horrible:

I feel that life is divided into the horrible and the miserable. That’s the two categories. The horrible are like, I don’t know, terminal cases, you know, and blind people, crippled. I don’t know how they get through life. It’s amazing to me. And the miserable is everyone else. So you should be thankful that you’re miserable, because that’s very lucky, to be miserable.

IMBD.com

If you look at the splits for the starters and relievers, you’ll see the starters are simply miserable at .293/.352/.559, while the relievers are horrible at .326/.419/.588! My only recommendation is to allow the A’s to return to the days of Billy Martin, where the starters finish every game.

May 23, 2025

Rockies Ranks

The Baseball Musings Batter Rankings tries to represent a ordering of the best batters as of today. Only starts count, and the whole of the batter’s career goes into the points calculation, with the most recent games counting the most. Currently, the system ranks 554 batters.

One may think of every 30 slots representing a level of player on the team. If talent somewhat evenly distributed, each team would have one player in the 1 to 30 range, the second best player in the 31 to 60 range, etc. The top 270 players would represent the preferred starting lineup for each team.

Where players rank, therefore, might gives us the relative strength of a team’s offense. Here is the posted Rockies starting lineup for Friday night with ranks:

  1. Beck – 265
  2. Tovar – 177
  3. Goodman – 180
  4. McMahon – 205
  5. Doyle – 218
  6. Moniak – 293
  7. Farmer – 264
  8. Martini – 405
  9. Amador – 431

The best Rockies hitters in this lineup come in the sixth best hitter range, 151-180. There is one in the seventh range, one in the eight range and two in the lower half of the ninth range. Two are way out in scrubs range.

Let’s compare that to a pretty good team, the Tigers Friday night lineup

  1. Carpenter – 83
  2. Torres – 37
  3. Keith – 184
  4. Dingler – 252
  5. Torkelson – 55
  6. Sweeney – 200
  7. Ibanez – 301
  8. Baddoo – 518
  9. Baez – 152

The expectation would be for a team to put three players in the top 90, and Detroit does that. That’s enough plus some rising talent, to have the Tigers fourth in runs scored per game in the majors.

The Rockies are bad all around, but a couple of decent bats would greatly improve things.

May 15, 2025

Power Reversal

The Twins beat the Orioles 4-0 Thursday afternoon to extend their winning streak to eleven games, and bury Baltimore at the bottom of the AL East. The Orioles own a 15-27 record 9 1/2 games behind the first place Yankees.

At this point in 2024, the Orioles stood 28-14, one game back in the AL East. It appears they reversed the power polarity. Through 42 games in 2024, they allowed 42 home runs while hitting 65. This season, with the two they allowed to the Twins today, they gave up 65 while hitting just 49.

On offense, blame Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman. The two combined for 22 home runs at this point in 2024, just ten this season. That’s twelve of the 16 HR drop. Those two are supposed to be the stars of the team, but neither is hitting like it in 2025.

May 8, 2025

Mile High Lear

King Lear stands as my favorite of Shakespeare’s plays. At every step, and more and more evil, betrayal, and disaster fall on the title character, one thinks, “It can’t get worse.” Then it gets worse. The play is the anti Tom Tango; it never regresses to the mean.

The Rockies appear to be the King Lear of the 2025 season. When they were 3-17, it was tough to believe they could be worse. They won a game, then lost eight in a row. They couldn’t get worse than 4-25. They won two in a row, but then lost five to go to 6-29.

Then came today. The Tigers score nine runs off Kyle Freeland in game one of the doubleheader.* They went on to a 10-2 win. In game two, the Tigers laid it on heavier, winning 11-1. That’s a 21 to 3 day.

So if you think the Rockies can’t get worse, go read Lear.

*The beat the streak neural network picked Kerry Carpenter as the most likely hitter to get a hit in a game today, in the game against Freeland. In Freeland’s three innings, Carpenter was the only starter not to get a hit. He went 0 for 5 in the game.

May 7, 2025

Unrealized Potential

The Guardians beat the Nationals 8-6 Wednesday afternoon, a game in which the Nationals had the opportunity to score many more runs. The top three hitters for the Nationals each collected three hits, going nine for seventeen with a walk. The trio combined to score just two runs however. One of those times on base did result in a pickoff, but that still leaves seven runners not driven in. The Nationals went four for nineteen with runners in scoring position.

Coming into today, the team was actually quite good in that situation, hitting .262/.329/.396 with RISP, .239/.309/.384 overall.

April 27, 2025

How Low Can They Go?

The Reds beat the Rockies 8-1 Sunday afternoon, and that’s the Rockies season in a nutshell. The Rockies allow the most runs per game in the majors, while their 3.3 runs scored per game stand third lowest in the majors, despite playing home games in a very batter friendly park. They came into today hitting .216/.290/.357 while opponents hit .290/.363/.467. It gets even worse when you look at scoring position stats.

The team is now 4-23, a .148 winning percentage. If the team were to win ten in a row, they would just bring them up to .387. I don’t think they can go much lower than this, but I didn’t think the White Sox set a record for losses last season. The Rockies have dug a hole, and it’s not easy for a bad team to stop digging.

April 20, 2025

Apology

Earlier I posted on a Royals loss. That was incorrect, the Royals won. I had hit the back button from an MLB.com box score, and it took me back to the scoreboard for the previous day. I apologize for the mistake and deleted the post.

The point, however, is still correct. Scoring four runs in a game is the tipping point for the Royals. They have scored four or more runs just eight times in 23 games, and are 7-1 in those games. They scored exactly four runs six times and are 5-1 in those games. The team has a pretty good pitching staff, so the offense needs to find a way to score four runs more often.

February 23, 2025

Changes, Washington Nationals

The Nationals acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

Both Reifert, a rule five draft pick, and Ogasawara, whose contract was purchased from Japan, have no major league experience.

Nationals first basemen hit .241/.310/.376 last season. Lowe projects to .269/.353/.429. He’s not a typical power hitting first baseman, but the better OBP really helps. If you think of outs as currency, Lowe spending fewer outs means more outs (and more plate appearances) for other hitters to spend. A players with higher OBPs expand the offense for everyone else. The better hitters on the team are going to get more PA.

DeJong moves in as the backup infielder. In recent years he’s been hit by a double whammy of his walk rate falling and his strikeout rate rising. He struck out over 30% of the time in each of his last three seasons. That might be fine if he generated some power, but he owns a .372 slugging percentage in that time. What he does well is play defense, so he’ll come off the bench when needed to play the infield.

Most of Rosario’s offense resides in his batting average. Over his career, it’s been around 56% of his offense, but last year jumped to 65%. He’s the type of player a manager sends to the plate a hit is the most important outcome for a plate appearance.

Soroka takes over the fifth slot in the rotation. He had a great season in 2019, then major injuries slowed his career. When he signed with the Nationals I wrote:

The money indicates the Nationals expect Soroka to be a one-WAR player. Given his injury history, and that he did not come close to one WAR since his 2019 season, this deal does carry some risk. On the positive side of the ledger, he’ll play 2025 as a 27 year old, right at an athlete’s peak. It also appears that injuries have not hurt his fastball velocity. That actually ticked up in the last two seasons. He is throwing mostly sliders as his change of pace, and has lowered the slider velocity recently. That makes the difference between the two fastballs and the two off-speed pitches greater, and in general that’s a good thing.

BaseballMusings.com

This was a move with some upside.

Like the Rangers, the Nationals revamped their bullpen. That surprised me after they had one of their better relief seasons in recent memory. Lopez, however, is the only change to the front of the bullpen as he competes for the closer role with Derek Law and Jose A. Ferrer. Lopez does not blow batters away, but his BABIP has come down in recent years to compensate. With a .315 career opposition BABIP, he does seem like a hittable pitcher.

Of the rest of the bullpen pickups, there are no high K, low BB pitchers. They are high on both or low on both. Reifert and Ogasawara did tend to keep the ball in the park in their professional careers.

There are no stars among the Nationals pickups, but everyone has something to contribute, some situation where a strength will be useful. Soroka has upside potential, and could be the star of the group. I suspect Washington will be a better team this year, but probably not a playoff team.

February 23, 2025

Changes, Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

In the early days of his Baseball Abstracts, Bill James would talk about batting average as a percentage of a player’s offense. Over his career, that percentage for Santander came down from 43.7% in 2021 to 31.8% in 2024. In other words, he became a higher dimensional threat at the plate. The reduction came from an increase in power. His isolated power was a good .192 in 2021, a great .271 in 2024. What I find interesting, however, is that his OBP failed to go up with his power. Often team will use a pitch around strategy against that type of slugger. Some players, don’t take the walks, however, So Santander’s value gets pulled down since he wastes outs generating his power.

Gimenez produced a fantastic season at seasonal age 23 with a 6.1 fWAR on a .371 OBP and a .466 slugging percentage. In the two subsequent seasons he combined for 6.8 fWAR with a .306 OBP and a .368 slugging percentage. It tough to see what changed. In 2024 he did hit a lot more ground balls, but he was also thrown more sinkers. He’s making more contact, but his BABIP is way down. It really seems like 2022 was just an outlier for him. Maybe the Blue Jays picked up on something they can fix. If so, this could turn out to be a very good trade for Toronto.

Straw, like Gimenez, had a nice season he could not repeat. His 3.0 fWAR year came in 2021, 1.6 fWAR in the three years since. Straw, unlike Jimenez, was already in his prime, so it seems unlikely he’ll reach that height again, especially when he’ll be riding the bench.

Scherzer pitches at seasonal age 40 this year. He has not made 30 starts in a campaign since 2021. His strikeout rate dropped two per 9 innings in 2024 versus 2023. We’ll see if it comes back after a healthy winter. His walk rate remains low, but batters are hitting more balls out of the park, so Scherzer might want to start working power hitters more carefully. He is slotted in as the fourth starter, however, and he should fit that role fine.

Hoffman became a different pitcher when he moved to the Phillies two years ago. He raised his K rate and lowered his walk rate, dropping his ERAs into the twos. He dropped his percent of fastballs thrown and replaced those with sliders. That gave him closer stuff, and the Blue Jays were happy to pay for that.

Garcia returns to Toronto after a brief stint in Seattle. He saw his K rate rise in the last two seasons also, but he had high K rate seasons in the past as well. I don’t know if this counts as a real change for Toronto.

Sandlin is the youngster of the bullpen acquisitions, still in his prime as he pitches at seasonal age 28. He is a three-true outcome pitcher as his K, BB, and HR rates are high Home run really jumped the last two seasons. Not only did batters get more balls in the air against him, but the rate of those fly balls leaving the park tripled. He reduced his sinker usage in each of the last two seasons, and it seems to me like it was a bad move.

Toronto fans expressed unhappiness with losing out on Juan Soto. Most of these moves were not bad however. Santander gives him power, Gimenez gives them upside, Scherzer, if healthy, is a good starter on a good staff, and Hoffman should be an excellent closer. It’s not that bad of an off-season. Blue Jays fans hoped for more.

February 22, 2025

Changes, Texas Rangers

The Rangers acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

The Rangers rebuilt their bullpen after posting the second highest walk rate in the majors, 4.16 per 9 IP, and the fourth highest home run rate at 1.18 per 9 IP. Martin, Armstrong, and Miller project to walk rates below three. Martin and Garcia project to less than a home run per 9 IP. As a group, they all should show much better control and a somewhat better ability to keep the ball in the park. It appears the Rangers understood the weakness of their pitchers and took drastic action to fix the problem.

Pederson is pretty much the definition of what a DH should be. He generates offense with little defensive ability. Rangers designated hitters produced a .204/.263/.322 slash line in 2024, which would be embarrassing for a catcher or a shortstop. Musings Marcels has Pederson at .254/.354/.461. Another problem fixed.

Burger takes over at first base, and this looks like a step back. They traded away Nathaniel Lowe to improve the pen with Garcia. Burger won’t get on base as much, but it’s possible out of Miami that his good home run power gets better.

Higashioka is a solid defensive backup behind the plate.

In general, the Rangers identified weaknesses and did a good job of filling the holes.

February 22, 2025

Changes, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

In addition, Tampa Bay also signed the injured Ha-Seong Kim as a free agent. He is recovering from labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder.

The Rays cautiously have been projecting late May for Kim to resume playing shortstop. It could be a little sooner for second base or DH if the only remaining issue is building strength for the longer throw from shortstop.

Kim told Korean media after his Feb. 3 signing he was targeting late April. Friday, he said that remains his goal, “based on how I feel and how the recovery speed is looking like. So, I’m trying to be optimistic.”

Kim said “everything feels good” so far and he is on schedule with his throwing, which in the early stages is light tossing from short distances. He said he is doing “better than expected” with hitting.

MSN.com

Kim’s strength is his ability to get on base, which projects this season to around .330. Rays shortstops hit .221/.294/.310 in 2024 as Tampa struggled to replace the legally troubled Wander Franco.

Jansen comes off the worst season of his career both offensively and defensively, which is why Tampa Bay was able to sign him for a relatively low price. The bad year could be a fluke, but catchers wear down quickly, and Jansen will play 2025 as a 30 year old. If the Rays get solid defense behind the plate and some of Jansen’s power returns, I think the team will be happy with the move.

Jimenez plays 2025 as a twenty eight year old, still in his prime. Injuries limited his time on the field in his career, but he did manage to produce two good power seasons at ages 23 and 25. The Rays seem to get power out of otherwise average players (think Jose Siri), so maybe they can work their magic on Jimenez. It’s a low risk, high reward move.

Faedo goes into his fourth season in the majors having raised his K rate each of the previous two years. Both rises followed him throwing fewer fastballs. He still does not strike out a lot of batters and his walks and home runs allowed remain high. He will most likely pitch in low leverage situations.

The Rays acquired Vasil in the rule five draft. As a starter, he pitched poorly once he reached AAA, with high walk and home run rates. The Rays look to use him as a long reliever, and maybe less pitching will lead to fewer mistakes.

Kim represents the big move for the Rays, but they will need to wait awhile for him to start producing. There is upside with the others, but I would not have a high confidence that the upside will prevail.

February 22, 2025

Changes, Seattle Mariners

The Mariners acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

Yes, that’s right, the Mariners brought in a backup infielder. Solano can play the corners and second base in a pinch. He also has a history of getting on base well, although the projections on FanGraphs show him with a large drop in his OBP this season. Maybe that’s due to the park. Solano has not hit for power in a while. Musings Marcels project him to a .267/.334/.393 slash line, which is pretty good for a backup.

It seems that the Mariners think the squad is good enough to make up the two games that kept them out of the wild card in 2024.

Note that Seattle also acquired minor league catcher Julio E. Rodriguez as a free agent, late of the Tiger. Now if they could just get Julio C. Rodriguez from the Astros, they could have J-Rods right up the middle of the diamond, and one third of a Bugs Bunny team.

February 21, 2025

Changes, San Francisco Giants

The Giants acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

The Giants are another team that made few moves. Adames gives them a solid shortstop, worth between three and four WAR a season. The offensive and defensive components of the his WAR change, but they never seem to both be down in the same year. Adames plays 2025 at seasonal age 29, still in his prime.

Verlander, on the other hand, is well past his prime. His K rate dropped five years in a row. It was coming off a high level, but at 7.37 per 9 IP in 2024, he no longer blows away batters. In addition, the balls put in play against him are more likely to fall for hits. At 262 career wins, he would need to great seasons or three very good seasons to reach 300. We’ll know this season if that is still possible.

Trivino might prove to be a good, inexpensive pickup. His ERA was well above his FIP numbers in 2024. If he can keep his K rate high, he’ll help the Giants bullpen.

Adames is a nice, long-term addition for the team. Otherwise, there isn’t much new in the city by the bay.

February 20, 2025

Changes, San Diego Padres

The Padres acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

Heyward looks to be a platoon player against right-handed pitchers. In three of his last four seasons he posted overall OBPs under .300. Against right-handers in that time, he hit .232/.308/.402. At least there is some pop in there.

Joe does a better job of getting on base, but with little power. He might be the other side of the platoon, hitting .254/.350/.415 for his career against left-handed pitching.

Pivetta gives the Padres a solid fourth starter. He pitched at least 140 innings in each of his last four seasons with a high strikeout rate. He does get hurt by a high home run rate, 1.53 per 9 IP for his career. His home parks were in Philadelphia and Boston. PETCO Park could reduce his home run numbers, making him look like a much better pitcher.

Hart pitched 11 MLB innings in 202 for the Red Sox, and may be the ultimate three-true outcomes pitcher. He allowed 10 walks and four home runs in those eleven innings, striking out 13. That’s 27 PA that ended with no fielder action out of 67 batters faced. Hart pitched better than that in the minors, but played in Korea last year and blew batters away with 10.4 K per 9, 2.18 BB per nine, and just 0.63 home runs per 9. The Padres took a shot on him as their fifth starter.

All these players are older, so they are filling in holes while the rest of the team hopes they play well enough again to make a run to the World Series.

February 20, 2025

Changes, St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals did not bring in any players from outside the organization over the winter to add to their active roster. They replaced Paul Goldschmidt by moving Willson Contreras to first base and Ivan Herrera to catcher. Note that Herrera gets on base at a very good clip, something Goldschmidt did not do last year, so this could be a nice positive for the team.

I suspect that bringing in no one from outside the organization is quite rare. There is talk of a Nolan Arenado trade. We’ll see if that happens before the start of the regular season.

February 19, 2025

Changes, Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

The Pirates seem to be content with continuing with a lineup and rotation where most players are in their prime years or approaching their primes. Pham, on the other hand, is a veteran who used to do a good job of getting on base, but 2021 was the last time he reached a .340 OBP. Unless his hits and walks come back, he looks more like a place holder.

Frazier returns to Pittsburgh, where he had his best years. He can give some batters a rest against right-handed pitching, or pinch hits when a platoon advantage is needed.

Horwitz is recovering from wrist surgery. According to this article, the recovery is going well, and he may not miss much time. He would give the Pirates some much needed OBP.

Ferguson is a high strikeout, low home run pitcher, which lets him get away with a higher walk rate. His last two seasons he allowed a high BABIP, which somewhat negated his strikeouts.

Mayza saw a huge drop in his K rate in 2024, 5.91 per 9 IP compared to 9.07 per 9 IP for his career. Combine that with a BABIP of .336, and all those hits led to a 6.33 ERA.

So the Pirates did nothing earth shattering, but the Horwitz deal looks like a good long-term move.

February 19, 2025

Changes, Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

The Phillies won the NL East and decided to mostly stand pat. Over the years, a lot of Kepler’s value came from his defense, but even that slipped recently. He will be in leftfield instead of center, however, so that may help his defense, since he’ll won’t have to catch every ball he could possibly catch.

Luzardo slots in as the fifth starter in the rotation. He followed up a 178 2/3 innings season in 2023 with on 66 2/3 innings in 2024 due to injury. He says he is healthy. If the Phillies can get 140 innings from him as a fifth starter that would be great.

Romano is also coming off an injury plagued season, undergoing elbow surgery. He is a high K, low home run pitcher when healthy.

Joe Ross will fill the swing man role, mopping up in blow outs and occasionally starting. In his good years, he keeps the ball in the park, in bad years he gives up a ton of homers.

The Phillies have a solid team, so these moves are more tweaks that than anything. Good recoveries by Luzardo and Romano will tell if the moves were successful.

February 18, 2025

Changes, New York Yankees

The Yankees acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

Goldschmidt posted a 6.8 fWAR in 2022 at seasonal age 34. He dropped off to 3.4 fWAR in 2023 and 1.1 fWAR in 2024. The Yankees took a flyer on him, hoping he returns closer to his 2023 value. If so both, New York will have bought a bargain. If Goldschmidt continues to decline, there’s always a first baseman who can hit available.

Bellinger is the more interesting offensive acquisition. He peaked early, his best season coming at seasonal age 23, then an injury limited his value. He bounced back a bit in 2023, but could not repeat the 4.4 fWAR in 2024. A left handed batter, maybe Yankee Stadium will help his power. He also gives the Yankees some flexibility if Goldschmidt doesn’t work out, as Bellinger could move to first base.

Jackson takes over as the backup catcher. He is a poor hitter who strikes out a ton, but rates well defensively.

Fried joins Gerrit Cole as two starters who project to three fWAR. The Yankees paid a good amount for Fried’s decline years, but he keeps batters off base with few walks, and prevents home runs. New York has to hope both those strengths age well.

Williams owns the lowest ERA in the majors over the last three seasons, 1.66. That’s among pitchers with at least 140 IP. He walks batters at a high rate, but makes up for it with an extremely high K rate and very few home runs allowed.

Cruz did not reach the major until his age 32 season in 2022, but posted a very high K rate since third highest in the majors. Unlike Williams, however, that has not led to a low ERA.

Bellinger, Fried, and Williams are excellent pick ups. If Bellinger and Goldschmidt both return to their 2023 levels, that would make up for most of the loss of Juan Soto. I don’t if the Yankees improved, but they should be at least as good as 2024.

February 17, 2025

Changes, New York Mets

The Mets acquired the following players for their 2025 active roster:

Soto signed the biggest deal of the off-season, a $765 million contract for 15 years. Musings Marcels project him at .273/.404/.516, but he could do much better than that. Mets right fielders in 2024 hit .258/.314/.395, so there should be a big improvement at that position.

Siri gives the Mets an outstanding defensive centerfielder. While not a great offensive player, Siri developed the skill of hitting home runs. He’s a one-dimensional hitter, but it’s a good dimension.

Madrigal comes off a disappointing season at the plate. The Cubs demoted him to AAA, and he immediately wound up with a broken hand. He is still in his prime, so the Mets hope he can bounce back to be a good infielder off the bench.

The Mets brought in Holmes as a stater, even though he has not started an MLB game since his rookie season of 2018. FanGraphs projects the Mets with six starters, so don’t be surprised if Holmes winds up as a swing man.

Canning showed a big drop in his strikeout rate in 2024, leading to more hits per innings and an ERA over five. He tends to allow a low BABIP, so the Mets defense needs to be on their toes when Canning is on the mound. He should be playing with a better team than he had with the Angels.

Minter slides into the primary setup role in the bullpen after spending his career with the Braves. He is a low walk pitcher, but last season his K rate dropped and his home run rate increased. On top of that, he may have been a bit lucky in 2024 as his 2.62 ERA was much lower than his FIPs.

The Soto signing is great. The other moves are fine, and we’ll see how the starting pitching shakes out.