Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.320 — Robinson Cano batting against Brett Oberholtzer
0.311 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Robbie Ray
0.305 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard
0.304 — Francisco Lindor batting against Andrew Cashner
0.303 — Jose Altuve batting against A.J. Griffin
0.302 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard
0.300 — Charles Blackmon batting against Robbie Ray
0.297 — Paulo Orlando batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.297 — Trea Turner batting against Noah Syndergaard
0.294 — Mookie Betts batting against Andrew Triggs
Both Seagers almost made the list as Kyle Seager ranks 11th. No one pitcher is bad enough to dominate the list today.
The NN produces a somewhat similar group:
0.303, 0.758 — Jose Altuve batting against A.J. Griffin.
0.302, 0.742 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.311, 0.739 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Robbie Ray.
0.305, 0.738 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard.
0.320, 0.734 — Robinson Cano batting against Brett Oberholtzer.
0.304, 0.733 — Francisco Lindor batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.294, 0.730 — Mookie Betts batting against Andrew Triggs.
0.293, 0.726 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.300, 0.722 — Charles Blackmon batting against Robbie Ray.
0.297, 0.721 — Trea Turner batting against Noah Syndergaard.
It’s getting tough to pick between Murphy and LeMahieu. LaMahieu is probably hotter, but because he walks more than Murphy, he has a lower chance of getting a hit. Middle infielders are really dominating the list today.
The NN with park modifies the list like this:
0.303, 0.757 — Jose Altuve batting against A.J. Griffin.
0.311, 0.748 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Robbie Ray.
0.302, 0.743 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.305, 0.739 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard.
0.320, 0.739 — Robinson Cano batting against Brett Oberholtzer.
0.304, 0.738 — Francisco Lindor batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.294, 0.735 — Mookie Betts batting against Andrew Triggs.
0.300, 0.733 — Charles Blackmon batting against Robbie Ray.
0.293, 0.728 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.297, 0.726 — Trea Turner batting against Noah Syndergaard.
Factoring in parks puts LeMahieu ahead of Murphy. Coors Field has a hit average of .278, versus .228 for Citi Field. Altuve, LeMahieu, Murphy, and Cano are all good picks. Even your best will fail 25% of the time, however. Good luck!
