Tag Archives: Trey Mancini

November 5, 2022

Knee to Know

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Yuli Gurriel of the Astros will miss the rest of the World Series due to a knee injury he suffered during a rundown in game five:

Catcher Korey Lee will replace Gurriel on the roster, allowing Christian Vazquez to be the designated hitter in Game 6 on Saturday night. Houston will carry three catchers for the final two games, giving them more lineup flexibility.

ESPN.com

Trey Mancini takes over a first base. The story notes that designated hitters for the Astros performed poorly in the series. They were getting good production from first base, however. That may not continue with Mancini, who is 0 for 18 with a walk and seven strikeouts in the post-season.

August 1, 2022

Moon River Shot

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The Astros make a three-team deal, receiving Trey Mancini from the Orioles:

The Houston Astros acquired first baseman Trey Mancini from the Baltimore Orioles in a three-team trade Monday that also moved speedy outfielder Jose Siri to the Tampa Bay Rays.

…

Houston also received minor league right-hander Jayden Murray from Tampa Bay. The Astros sent Siri to the Rays and minor league right-hander Chayce McDermott to the Orioles.

Chron.com

Almost all of Siri’s value comes from defense this season, and he should be a decent replacement for Kevin Kiermaier.

Murray owns a low ERA in the minors with good three-true outcomes, while McDermott blows away batters. With both Mancini and Murray, the Astros might have gotten the best of this transaction.

May 20, 2021

Best Batter Today

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Jose Ramirez of the Indians singles and walks in a 3-2 win over the Angels and stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings as the top of the list starts to tighten. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays holds the second slot with a double against the Red Sox. His teammate, Marcus Semien, moves into the fourth slot after a double, home run, and two walks. The Red Sox win the game, however, 7-3.

Max Muncy of the Dodgers holds third place as he goes two for three with a double and a hit by pitch against the Diamondbacks, Los Angeles taking the game 4-2. That’s five hit by pitches for Muncy, which barely puts him in the top ten. Nolan Arenado of the Cardinals rounds out the top five as he goes one for five in an 8-5 win over the Pirates.

Trey Mancini of the Orioles posts the best game score of the day, four for five with a double and two home runs against the Rays. His game score of 88 wasn’t enough, however, as Tampa Bay wins 9-7. The cancer survivor is now slugging .503 on the season. There were three games scores of 80 on Wednesday as Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres goes four for four with a two doubles and a homer for a game score of 83, and Randy Arozarena of the Rays posts a with a double and two home runs for a game score of 80.

April 30, 2021

Best Batter Today

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Jose Ramirez and the Indians did not play Thursday, and Ramirez stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. The Dodgers did play, beaten by the Brewers 2-1 with Corey Seager posting a one for four night to hold second place and Justin Turner going two for four for third place. The Angels did not play, leaving Mike Trout in fourth place, while Freddie Freeman took an 0 for four for fifth place.

Best game score of the day goes to Trey Mancini of the Orioles. The cancer survivor posted a three for four afternoon with a home run, his fifth of the season as Baltimore takes the game in extra innings 4-3. Nice to see him playing again and doing okay at the plate overall.

March 2, 2021

Feeling Good

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Tim Dahlberg rounds up the feel good stories of the start of the exhibition season. Trey Mancini returned from cancer, Tommy Pham returned from a stabbing, and fans returned to the stands. The last is providing a boost to the moral of the players:

“I hit a ground ball but just hearing the fans kind of spark up,” Yankees slugger Aaron Judge said. “You hear that instant crowd reaction. Kind of had little butterflies getting back to your first at-bat.”

That was pretty much the reaction from players around both the Cactus and Grapefruit leagues. They were not only happy to be playing again, but thrilled by the return of fans to the spring training ballparks,

Turns out crowds matter in sports, even if it took a pandemic for players to fully appreciate them.

Chrom.com

I’m hoping to get together with my old friends for our annual ballpark trip this year. The 2020 season was the first in a very long time that I did not attend a game.

March 12, 2020

Mancini’s Cancer

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There are still other diseases around, and one affected Trey Mancini:

Trey Mancini, the Baltimore Orioles first baseman who has been absent from camp for a medical issue that has been shrouded in mystery, announced that today he had successful surgery to remove a malignant tumor from his colon. The tumor was apparently discovered last week during a colonoscopy.

LoneStarBall.com

I wish him a speedy recovery. That can be a very rough cancer.

June 12, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

The Orioles provide few positives for their fans, but Alberto and Mancini hit well. Mancini is easily the MVP of the offense, but Alberto has the high BA, low OBP that produces a high hit average.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.324, 0.733 — Whit Merrifield batting against Daniel Norris.
  • 0.311, 0.728 — Javier Baez batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.291, 0.723 — Michael Brantley batting against Brandon Woodruff.
  • 0.303, 0.722 — Austin Meadows batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.289, 0.716 — J.D. Martinez batting against Lance Lynn.
  • 0.291, 0.715 — Jean Segura batting against Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.309, 0.711 — Adalberto Mondesi batting against Daniel Norris.
  • 0.263, 0.710 — Nolan Arenado batting against Cole Hamels.
  • 0.291, 0.708 — Avisail Garcia batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.279, 0.707 — David Peralta batting against Zach Eflin.
  • 0.287, 0.707 — Elvis Andrus batting against Rick Porcello.

The two systems agree on Merrifield and Baez as the top two choices, but rank differently below that. The Orioles fall off this list.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 1, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

I included the top 11 since Yelich is unlikely to play today. With the rainout Tuesday, Mancini versus Nova comes out on top again. Note that even though none of their statistics changed, Mancini is predicted to bat .001 points higher than yesterday. That’s due to the league average going down a point. That’s means Mancini and Nova are even higher above the league in terms of hit average than they were yesterday. Hit average for position players is now .220, which is pretty low. As the weather gets better, I would expect it to rise to near .230.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.325, 0.743 — Michael Brantley batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.304, 0.725 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Norris.
  • 0.335, 0.723 — Trey Mancini batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.302, 0.723 — J.D. Martinez batting against Michael Fiers.
  • 0.300, 0.717 — Christian Yelich batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.294, 0.713 — Jose Altuve batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.287, 0.712 — Jeff McNeil batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.308, 0.711 — Cody Bellinger batting against Madison Bumgarner.
  • 0.296, 0.711 — Javier Baez batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.306, 0.710 — Josh Reddick batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.281, 0.707 — Elvis Andrus batting against Jameson Taillon.

Just like yesterday, Brantley and Mancini are tied for the consensus first pick.

Note that there are two double headers today, so make sure you are choosing the correct game if you decide to select someone of the Rays, Royals, Orioles, or White Sox.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 30, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

There are some unusual names on the list today, as the Orioles get a chance to hit against Ivan Nova. Nova allowed a .351 BA so far this season. The Orioles picked up Hanser Alberto via what appears to be a series of waiver transactions, and he is hitting .324 this season.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.313, 0.731 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Pineda.
  • 0.334, 0.724 — Trey Mancini batting against Ivan Nova.
  • 0.294, 0.721 — Jose Martinez batting against Anibal Sanchez.
  • 0.295, 0.717 — Elvis Andrus batting against Jordan Lyles.
  • 0.279, 0.711 — J.D. Martinez batting against Aaron Brooks.
  • 0.299, 0.710 — Cody Bellinger batting against Drew Pomeranz.
  • 0.292, 0.710 — Javier Baez batting against Felix Hernandez.
  • 0.273, 0.706 — Jean Segura batting against Tyson Ross.
  • 0.287, 0.706 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Pineda.

A lot of the Orioles drop out as the NN puts more weight on long term success or failure. Trey Mancini and Michael Brantley are tied for the consensus first pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 19, 2018

Beat the Streak Picks

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Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.318 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.302 — Trey Mancini batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.297 — Manny Machado batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.293 — David Peralta batting against Ty Blach.
0.292 — Dansby Swanson batting against Matt Harvey.
0.291 — Ozzie Albies batting against Matt Harvey.
0.289 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Harvey.
0.288 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.286 — Carlos Correa batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.286 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Marco Gonzales.

Both programs look at data since the start of the 2016 season for the three-year averages. Gonzales in that time allowed a .347/.386/.542 slash line. He gives up lots of hits without walking many batters. Three year numbers are regressed up to 600 PA, so the number that are used in the above calculation could be much worse. Altuve should be licking his chops.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.318, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.302, 0.713 — Trey Mancini batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.293, 0.707 — David Peralta batting against Ty Blach.
0.289, 0.701 — Ender Inciarte batting against Matt Harvey.
0.297, 0.699 — Manny Machado batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.286, 0.698 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.288, 0.695 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.279, 0.693 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Matt Wisler.
0.286, 0.691 — Carlos Correa batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.285, 0.689 — Adam Jones batting against Jordan Zimmermann.

There’s very good agreement today between the two systems. Altuve and Mancini are the unanimous 1-2 picks, but notice Altuve’s probability of a hit is much higher.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!