Tag Archives: Kenshin Kawakami

June 15, 2010

Games of the Day

Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia face off in New York as the 2009 World Series opponents meet again. This post documented Roy’s success against the Yankees. His opposition batting stats against New York give another view of how good he’s been against this long time rival. About the only innings the Yankees hit him well are the first the seventh, when they have their best hitters up or when Roy is tiring. Sabathia hasn’t pitched much at home this season, but he holds a 2.91 ERA at Yankee Stadium in 2010. He’s allowed a .189 BA at home against .278 on the road.

David Price tried to become the first ten-game winning in the American League as he faces the favorite team of his youth, the Atlanta Braves and Kenshin Kawakami. Price’s ERA strikes me as much better than his K, BB and HR rates would indicate, and indeed his FIP is about 1.75 runs higher than his ERA. Price is coming by his low runs allowed due to a .138 BA allowed with runners in scoring position. He goes for the strikeout in that situation, getting 16 of 68 batters, 24%. Overall, he strikes out 17% of the batters he faces. Kawakami also allows a low batting average with runners in scoring position, .164, but gives up a lot of power with the bases empty. That puts more batters into that situation.

C.J. Wilson of the Rangers takes on Florida’s ace Josh Johnson in the sunshine state. Wilson is at about the same number of innings he threw as a reliever in 2009. His strikeouts are down as he paces himself, but he hasn’t lost his control or his ability to prevent home runs. Johnson is about as hot as Ubaldo Jimenez right now, allowing one run or less in each of his last six starts. He walked nine and struck out 35 in those 42 innings of work without allowing a home run.

Brett Cecil and Mat Latos hope the earth doesn’t move tonight as they continue the Blue Jays series in San Diego against the Padres. Despite allowing four of his five home runs away from the stadium formerly known as Skydome, Cecil boasts a 2.45 ERA on the road as opponents hit just .181 against him. Latos saves his best for San Diego, so this should be a low scoring game.

Enjoy!

May 25, 2010

Seven Down

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The Marlins defeat the Braves 6-4 behind Anibal Sanchez, pinning the loss on Kenshin Kawakami. That takes Kawakami’s record to 0-7, putting him on a pace for 20 losses. His record is a combination of poor pitching and bad luck. He now owns a 4.93 ERA after giving up three runs in six innings, a quality start. The Braves scored three runs or less in his starts six times. When the Braves won his starts, he was not around for the decision. He’ll pitch well enough to win a few games, but at this point it will be tough for him to finish with a good record.

Jason Heyward was back in the lineup and drove in two more runs bring his total to 35 in 41 games played.

May 4, 2010

Games of the Day

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Livan Hernandez hopes batted balls keep finding gloves. Photo: Icon SMI

Kenshin Kawakami takes on Livan Hernandez as the Braves meet the Nationals in Washington. Hernandez is tied with Ubaldo Jimenez for the NL lead in ERA at 0.87. Livan is taking advantage of an improved Washington defense, as he’s pitching to contact. The following table shows the percent of batters facing a pitcher who are putting the ball in play (BFP – (K+BB+HBP)), minimum 100 batters faced this year.

Pitcher	BFP	InPlay	PctInPlay	ERA
Craig Stammen	108	93	86.1	6.75

Livan Hernandez	117	99	84.6	0.87

Nick Blackburn	107	90	84.1	6.85

Mark Buehrle	160	134	83.8	5.3

Douglas Fister	130	108	83.1	1.29

Joel Pineiro	133	111	83.5	5.76

Jeremy Guthrie	159	130	81.8	4.78
Jamie Moyer	131	108	82.4	5.7
David Huff	138	113	81.9	4.6
Dallas Braden	149	120	80.5	4.14
Rodrigo Lopez	134	109	81.3	4.5
Joe Saunders	144	116	80.6	7.04
Brad Penny	136	110	80.9	1.56
Mitch Talbot	136	109	80.1	2.88
Carl Pavano	127	101	79.5	3.73
Ryan Rowland-Smith	127	102	80.3	5.28
Anibal Sanchez	112	90	80.4	4.32
Edwin Jackson	148	119	80.4	8.07
Chris Volstad	133	106	79.7	4.45
Kyle Lohse	123	99	80.5	5.28
Tim Hudson	127	102	80.3	2.87
John Lannan	159	127	79.9	6.34
Brian Bannister	130	103	79.2	3.48
Tim Wakefield	126	100	79.4	6.59
Kyle Kendrick	108	85	78.7	7.61
Rick Porcello	116	92	79.3	8.03
Fausto Carmona	138	108	78.3	4.05
Zach Duke	159	124	78	6.09
Mat Latos	116	90	77.6	5.47
Dana Eveland	125	98	78.4	4.76
David Bush	125	97	77.6	4.6
Brett Myers	143	112	78.3	3.82
Wandy Rodriguez	129	100	77.5	3.64
Scott Feldman	116	91	78.4	4.5
Matt Harrison	132	102	77.3	4.97
Scott Baker	154	118	76.6	5.35
Carlos Silva	125	96	76.8	2.9
Ben Sheets	142	110	77.5	7.12
Hiroki Kuroda	142	110	77.5	2.08
John Lackey	129	99	76.7	4.5
A.J. Burnett	135	103	76.3	2.43
Aaron Cook	133	101	75.9	5.52
Matt Cain	127	96	75.6	2.84
Paul Maholm	136	103	75.7	4.83
Roy Halladay	185	141	76.2	1.47
Randy Wolf	169	126	74.6	3.86
Luke Hochevar	129	97	75.2	6.11
Jair Jurrjens	106	79	74.5	6.38
Randy Wells	133	100	75.2	3.45
Max Scherzer	139	104	74.8	6.47
Aaron Harang	150	113	75.3	6.68
Matt Palmer	106	79	74.5	6.75
Johnny Cueto	120	90	75	5.33
Barry Zito	133	98	73.7	1.53
Jeremy Bonderman	116	86	74.1	5.74
Kevin Millwood	167	123	73.7	3.15
Derek Lowe	144	106	73.6	5.18
Jeff Niemann	117	87	74.4	2.76
Josh Beckett	159	118	74.2	6.31
Jason Vargas	101	75	74.3	3.6
Gil Meche	121	89	73.6	9.89
CC Sabathia	165	120	72.7	2.74
John Danks	133	97	72.9	1.85
Kevin Slowey	128	94	73.4	3.77
Dontrelle Willis	105	77	73.3	3.75
Justin Duchscherer	116	85	73.3	2.89
Clayton Richard	129	94	72.9	3
Ricky Nolasco	135	98	72.6	4.01
Mike Leake	141	103	73	2.94
David J Hernandez	124	90	72.6	4.55
Zack Greinke	160	116	72.5	2.27
David Price	137	100	73	2.34
Clay Buchholz	133	97	72.9	2.97
Andy Pettitte	136	99	72.8	2.12
Jake Westbrook	123	89	72.4	5.53
Roy Oswalt	134	97	72.4	2.73
Johan Santana	145	105	72.4	4.5
Mike Pelfrey	124	89	71.8	2.4
Bronson Arroyo	131	94	71.8	6.37
Adam Wainwright	144	103	71.5	2.13
Shaun Marcum	160	114	71.3	3.12
Ervin Santana	142	101	71.1	4.59
Jonathon Niese	133	94	70.7	3.1
Jon Garland	147	104	70.7	2.06
Nate Robertson	114	81	71.1	5.18
Charlie Morton	104	74	71.2	12.57
Gavin Floyd	122	87	71.3	6.49
Justin Verlander	149	104	69.8	4.5
Dan Haren	170	119	70	4.5
James Shields	141	98	69.5	3.38
Ian Kennedy	125	88	70.4	4.45
Chad Billingsley	117	82	70.1	4.85
Jaime Garcia	125	88	70.4	1.13
Kevin Correia	142	99	69.7	3.97
Homer Bailey	136	94	69.1	6.04
Oliver Perez	121	83	68.6	4.05
C.J. Wilson	136	94	69.1	1.65
Brian Matusz	130	90	69.2	4.4
Doug Davis	114	79	69.3	8.87
Todd Wellemeyer	110	76	69.1	5.55
Kyle Davies	124	86	69.4	3.52
Felix Hernandez	172	119	69.2	3.1
Javier Vazquez	112	76	67.9	9.78
Vicente Padilla	100	68	68	7.06
Ricky Romero	141	96	68.1	2.25
Jered Weaver	148	101	68.2	3.19
Tom Gorzelanny	117	80	68.4	2.48
Greg Smith	108	73	67.6	7.33
Ryan Dempster	140	95	67.9	2.78
Wade Davis	119	81	68.1	2.79
Jake Peavy	165	110	66.7	6.31
Cole Hamels	139	92	66.2	5.28
John Maine	112	74	66.1	7.15
Gio Gonzalez	121	80	66.1	3.45
Felipe Paulino	128	85	66.4	5.53
Matt Garza	140	91	65	2.06
Francisco Liriano	139	90	64.7	1.5
Justin Masterson	127	82	64.6	5.4
Chris Carpenter	155	101	65.2	2.84
Yovani Gallardo	155	99	63.9	3
Carlos Zambrano	113	72	63.7	6.56
Thomas Hanson	119	74	62.2	2.17
Tim Lincecum	133	83	62.4	1.27
Ubaldo Jimenez	160	99	61.9	0.87
Jon Lester	128	78	60.9	4.71
Josh Johnson	152	93	61.2	3.16
Colby Lewis	133	80	60.2	2.76
Bud Norris	111	66	59.5	7.25
Jorge de la Rosa	100	59	59	3.91
Clayton Kershaw	132	76	57.6	3.07
Brandon Morrow	120	69	57.5	5.46
Rich Harden	138	79	57.2	3.52
Jonathan Sanchez	122	65	53.3	2.48

Note that this concept doesn’t work all that well for Craig Stammen, even on the same team. He’s allowing line drives at twice the rate as Livan, so even though batters are putting wood on the ball off Hernandez, they’re not getting good wood on the pitches. In general, note that pitchers with high in-play rates do have high ERAs. Of the top ten, five have ERAs over 5.00. Seven of the lowest ten have ERAs under 4.00.

Kawakami is getting hit for power, as 11 of the 24 hits against him went for extra bases. He’s keeping things a bit under control by allowing a .231 BA with runners in scoring position.

Tim Lincecum and the Giants visit the Marlins as they take on Anibal Sanchez. The Freak needs two strike outs to reclaim the league lead from Ubaldo Jimenez. Lincecum hit double digits in strikeouts twice in his first five starts. We’ll see if Bruce Bochy pulls him if the game is late and close, as the Giants lost Tim’s last start when that happened. Sanchez is pitching well in terms of walks and home runs, but his high number of balls in play is hurting his ERA. He needs to get his strikeouts up.

The Rockies and Padres continue their series with Greg Smith taking on Wade “The Blank” LeBlanc. Wade posted zero runs allowed in 16 of the 17 full innings he’s pitched this season. Batters are getting hits, but that’s about it. He’s only walked four, and base runners are 1 for 5 against him and the Padres catchers. Smith is at risk for whiplash, as he’s allowed six home runs in only 23 1/3 innings of work. PETCO Park should help him with those.

Finally, the Rays travel to Seattle as James Shields faces Jason Vargas. Shields owns a 3.38 ERA despite allowing seven home runs so far. Six of those were solo shots, and he totally shuts down hitters when men are on base. Vargas appears to have solved the home run problem that plagued him in 2009, giving up just two long balls in his first 25 innings of work.

Enjoy!

April 17, 2010

Games of the Day

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While not really a game of the day, I had to include Jake Peavy against Jake Westbrook pitching at the park formerly known as Jacobs Field.

Tim “Wicked Witch of the West” Lincecum takes the hill against Charlie Haeger. Lincecum comes into the game with seventeen strikeouts and just one walk, and is off to a great start in trying to lower his ERA for the third straight year. That’s not easy to do when his ERA last season came in at 2.48. Haeger needs to work on his control, but his 13 strikeouts in seven innings gives him plenty of room for error. Expect cool breezes from the bats at Dodger Stadium this afternoon.

James Shields tries to earn his first win at Fenway Park. Photo: Icon SMI

In the regularly scheduled game tonight at Fenway, James Shields and Clay Buchholz face off as the Rays and Red Sox continue their series. Shields lost game he started at Fenway, not that surprising given his 8.04 ERA at the park. Boston has 43 hits against James in the Back Bay, despite the righty’s 25 strikeouts in 28 innings of work. Buchholz, on the other hand, seems to own Tampa Bay with a 2.39 ERA against them in four starts. He allowed just one home run in 26 1/3 innings.

Ubaldo Jimenez brings his heat to Atlanta as the Rockies take on Kenshin Kawakami. Jimenez sports a 2.25 ERA despite allowing a .313 batting average this season. He’s spread out the hits against him well, as opponents are batting just .235 with runners in scoring position. Kawakami walked just one batter in six innings in his first start, although he only struck out one as well.

Finally, Kris Benson tries another comeback, this time with the Diamondbacks. He’ll start in San Diego against Kevin Correia. I like that the DBacks are putting Kris into a position where he has a decent chance of succeeding. He’s pitching in a poor park for hitters against a low-scoring team. My gut says that Benson’s time has past, and he’s another high draft pick who just never lived up to his potential.

Enjoy!

April 11, 2010

Games of the Day

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With all the talk of Chapman and Strasburg, it useful to remember it was Mike Leake who made the jump to the majors without any minor league experience. He’ll get the start for the Reds while Chapman pitches in AAA, Leake facing Tom Gorzelanny and the Chicago Cubs. The closest thing we have to pro numbers for Leake is 19 innings in the Arizona Fall League in which he did not allow a home run, struck out 15 and walked just three. Did give up nine runs, but six were unearned, which tells you a little about the level of defense there. He showed a big leap of ability going from his second to third year at Arizona State. Already a great control pitcher, he upped his strikeouts from 7.7 per nine innings to 10.3 per nine innings. Expect him to be around the plate today. Gorzelanny posted ERAs over five the last two seasons, including an evil 6.66 in 2008 (you can find a random evil player here).

The Astros are the last MLB team without a win, and they face a tough challenge getting one today in the battle of the Roys. Philadelphia’s Roy Halladay visits Houston’s Roy Oswalt as two of the best pitchers of the deacde go head-to-head. Halladay pitched brilliantly in his first start, striking out nine Nationals in seven innings while walking just two. Oswalt lasted six innings, allowing three runs and only striking out three.

Finally, Kenshin Kawakami goes against Tim Lincecum as the Braves and Giants play the rubber game of their series. At age 34, Kawakami posted a strong first season in the majors, throwing a high percentage of strikes. Lincecum was close to perfection in his opening start, tossing seven shutout innings without allowing a walk and just four hits.

Enjoy!