Tag Archives: Aaron Hill

February 1, 2016

Stewart on the Infield

The trade of Aaron Hill for Jean Segura leaves the Diamondbacks with a glut of players on the middle infield. Dave Stewart gives his take on Segura or Nick Ahmed at shortstop:

“Jean Segura is a guy we can hit at the top of the order if we chose to, and with the opportunity to make a move like that, we felt we would do it.”

Will he be the starting shorstop? “We always like to look at our camps as a competitive camp. We want to make sure that we don’t overlook the job Nick Ahmed did for us defensively last year. When all’s said and done, the guy the plays the best will get the job.”

Segura, however, will get the bulk of the playing time at short in spring training. If Ahmed plays, it appears he’ll need to improve his offense:

Can you see Nick Ahmed playing 2B? “It’s difficult for me to make a comment on that. We’ll have to get into spring training and see… I know Nick has been working on some things this winter, and has the capability to be a better offensive player for us.”

I don’t quite understand why Stewart thinks Segura is a top of the order hitter. He had a good year in 2013, getting on base at a .329 clip. In the two years since, since OBP is .285 with little power. He will play 2016 as a 26 year old, so he’s still in his prime, but it looks like the league adjusted to him after 2013 and Segura never answered the adjustment. That’s not a good sign.

March 5, 2015

Top of the Hill

FanGraphs looks at the paradoxical defense of Aaron Hill. The article starts with a discussion of how our perceptions of a player’s defensive skills are shaped by the tough plays, not the routine ones.

I’d like to make use of some Inside Edge data and Diamondbacks second baseman Aaron Hill to illustrate this. Earlier in his career, Hill rated as a terrific defender using UZR and DRS. The metrics disagree a bit, but we’re talking about 10-20 runs above average at times. Over the last couple of years, Hill has been below average, and perhaps even as many as 10 runs below average.

We don’t have to argue about the minor details, but the metrics say he used to be great and his skills are eroding into his thirties. This isn’t surprising.

What is surprising is that Hill made the most remote plays (1-10% chance) of any non-catcher in 2014 according to Inside Edge. Hill made six remote plays at second and one at third, but for our purposes let’s focus on the six at second because we don’t have a long history of data for him at the hot corner.

There is video embedded in the article of Hill making some of these tough plays. The key when you watch is to notice that these are balls hit well away from straight away second base, but Hill is positioned well to make the play. He has to dive for the balls, but he close enough that his quick reaction time allows him to reach the hot shots.

This goes back to the two prongs of fielding skill, range and positioning. An aging player, with tons of experience, might be able to cheat from the straight away position based on the pitcher, the pitch being thrown, and the hitter. Cheating can make a player look like he has good range, but it can also hurt. Some balls are going to be hit at the straightaway position, and not fielding those means he’ll get charged with bad plays. With luck, the great plays make up for the missed ones.

Now that MLB is starting to track fielders, researchers will likely be able to measure range and positioning separately.

June 30, 2012

Year of the Feat

With Aaron Hill hitting for his second cycle in 11 days Friday night, the 2012 season has now seen three cycles and five no-hitters, the big, rare feats. The graph here shows feats by season from 1957 to the present. The biggest year in that time frame was 1991, with seven no-hitters and four cycles. The majors is well on its way to blowing that out of the water.

The controls on the graph allow you to control by number of no-hitters, number of cycles, and the time frame.

June 19, 2012

Monday Roundup

The Astros asked Brett Myers to protect a seven run lead in the ninth against the Royals, and he gave up eight hits and five runs before Xavier Cedeno comes on for the save. The Astros win 9-7, but Kansas City has shown a lot of fight late in the game lately.

The Cubs pounded the White Sox 12-3, Cubs hitters blasting five home runs. The White Sox hit two dingers, but all the other hits in the game were singles. The White Sox lead in the AL Central is down to 1/2 game over Cleveland.

Milwaukee blew an early 6-1 lead, but Aramis Ramirez picked up his third hit of the night in the seventh inning, a solo home run that gave the Brewers a 7-6 victory over the Blue Jays. Ramirez missed the cycle by a triple.

Aaron Hill hits for the cycle as Arizona blows out Seattle 7-1. Hill hit the triple early in the game and homered in his final plate appearance. Wade Miley walked none and struck out eight in seven innings, lowering his ERA to 2.30. He’s walked just 17 in 82 1/3 innings this season.

Matt Cain wasn’t perfect Monday night, but the Giants bullpen was and San Francisco beats the Angels 5-3. Cain gave up six hits and four walks in just five innings, but only three runs. His relieve pitched four perfect innings, striking out three. Melky Cabrera went three for five to raise his batting average to .364. He trails Joey Votto by four points in a very high average batting race.

If you wanted the first inning of Texas versus San Diego, you saw all you needed to see Monday night. David Murphy drove in two runs in the top of the first, Chase Headley drove in a run in the bottom of the first, and 2-1 turned out to be the final. Jason Marquis struck out 10 in seven innings, but the Padres could not get another run off Matt Harrison and the Texas bullpen.

April 7, 2012

Hill Out Drills Pill

Aaron Hill hit two home runs to Brett Pill‘s one, and the Diamondbacks take two in a row from the Giants, winning 5-4. Hill’s first two hits of the season leave the park, and Chris Young added two doubles as all three of his hits this season have gone for extra bases. The Arizona bullpen gave up just one hit in 2 1/3 innings as they preserved the 5-4 lead.

For the second night in a row, the Giants received a poor start, this time from Madison Bumgarner. This is a low scoring team built around great pitching. If the pitching just turns out to be average, this team is in trouble.

November 14, 2011

Ellis Itis

Mike Scioscia‘s Tragic Illness is none too happy with the Dodgers signing Mark Ellis to play second base:

Mark Ellis is coming off a .288 OBP and is the proud owner of a better wOBA than Jamey Carroll exactly one time going back to 2006, yet he’s going to pull down about a million dollars more per season than the Carroll contract we didn’t even particularly like. Ellis was once a solid player with some pop, hitting double-digit homers each year between 2005-09, but that’s declined precipitously as he’s aged and been injured, averaging 33.5 days on the disabled list over the last four seasons. (h/t to pal Jay Jaffe on that stat.) Ellis is pretty one-dimensional now, since he doesn’t get on base well, doesn’t have a lot of power, and only has real value in his defense. Age and injuries – particularly leg injuries, which is what Ellis has had – can do a lot to diminish an infielder, so if Ellis suffers even a little with the glove, that’s going to make him a trouble spot, quickly. At least he’s not going to cost the Dodgers a draft pick, though the Rockies do pick up one on their end.

It’s been a good week for middle infielders, as the Twins picked up Jamey Carroll, Aaron Hill agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks, and now Ellis, all for two years, all for between $7 million and $10 million. It seems to me there are not a lot of good, young middle infielders in the pipeline. For all you high school and college players looking to make money in the big leagues, those are the positions that will likely pay well over the next few years.

November 13, 2011

Players A to Z, Aaron Hill

Aaron Hill played second base for the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks in 2011. He currently seeks work as a free agent, although the Diamondbacks due have an offer on the table that expires Monday.

Hill’s statistics follow an interesting career arc. He started as a hitter whose strength was getting on base, with a .346 OBP and a .386 slugging percentage his first two seasons. Over the next four years, his power spiked, especially in terms of home runs, but his ability to get on base fell. He finished that period with a .445 slugging percentage but a .315 OBP.

Hill just fell apart for the Blue Jays, resulting in his trade to the Diamondbacks. Everything worked when he joined Arizona, posting a .386 OBP and a .492 slugging percentage in just 124 at bats. He did not hit that well in 2010, however. The Diamondbacks might have seen something they like, or maybe his last 33 games turned out to be an outlier in his last two seasons. He’s a risk to sign at this point, but one Arizona will take for two years.

August 23, 2011

Johnson Heads North

The Diamondbacks traded Kelly Johnson to the Toronto Blue Jays:

Arizona traded the struggling Johnson to the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday, picking up second basemen Aaron Hill and John McDonald in return. The Diamondbacks also placed right-hander Jason Marquis on the 60-day disabled list with a fractured right fibula.

Power wise, Johnson hit well in May and July, but did a poor job getting on base through the season. Hill, however, has hit poorly all season, so I don’t see where this really helps the team. McDonald at least gives them a solid defensive player in the middle of the diamond.

September 20, 2010

Evil Player

The Evil Player program selected Aaron Hill as Monday’s evil player. In the second year of a four-year deal, Aaron raised the hopes of Blue Jays fans that he would be a great hitter. The evil Aaron re-emerged this season, as his batting average plunged over 70 points and his OPB dropped about 50 points. The only silver lining is that his isolated power did not drop much. He still produces a high number of extra base hits. That’s his only good dimension at this point.

By the way, who has a career year in the second season of a four year deal? Aren’t players supposed to save that until their walk year?

September 5, 2010

Hill Climbing

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Yankees 7-3 behind a near cycle by Aaron Hill. He singled, doubled and homered, his 22nd double and homer, driving in three runs. Hill’s ability to collect hits is way down this season, as his three for four day raised his batting average to a meager .215. His .410 slugging percentage, however, indicates a high percentage of those hits are going for extra bases, 44 of 97.

Phil Hughes gave up three home runs. He gave up three all of August, and 19 of the 22 he allowed have come in Yankee Stadium.

August 30, 2010

Up Hill and Down Hill

Aaron Hill hit his 20th home run for the Toronto Blue Jays Monday night, making him responsible for one of the two Toronto runs. Unfortunately, his error in the third opened the door for Carlos Pena to hit a three-run homer, all three unearned. That gave Tampa Bay a 5-1 lead, and they would go on to win the game 6-2. Hill is actually a pretty good fielder, and he’s been more valuable with the glove than the bat this year. Tonight was an exception.

April 12, 2010

Hill to the Disabled List

AL East second basemen keep falling as Aaron Hill of the Blue Jays joins Brian Roberts of the Orioles on the disabled list.

The AL East is down a second star second baseman after Aaron Hill was placed on the disabled list Monday because of a strained hamstring.

Hill hit 36 home runs last year, so that’s a huge loss at a non-power position. So far, however, the Jays are generating a lot of home runs without him.