Spencer Schwellenbach of the Braves takes on Chad Patrick of the Brewers in the only decent pitching matchup of the day. Schwellenbach now owns a 3.30 ERA in his brief MLB career, consisting of 204 1/3 innings. His success flows from his ability to limit walks, allowing just 1.63 per 9 IP. The rookie Patrick brings a 2.84 ERA into the game, covering 69 2/3 innings in 13 starts. He allowed just five home runs, with the league slugging just .352 against him.
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Central Division leaders meet in Detroit as the Cubs send Ben Brown against Tarik Skubal. Brown’s ERA of 5.72 is over two runs higher than his premier season of 2024, despite near identical FIPs. His stats with runners in scoring position are much worse this year. Skubal is tied for first place in Tom Tango Enhanced Cy Young points.
The day ends with Spencer Schwellenbach of the Braves taking on Hayden Birdsong of the Giants. Schwellenbach, with 198 1/3 MLB innings under his belt struck out 198 batters while walking just 35. Birdsong cut his walk rate in half from his rookie year, dropping his ERA nearly a run and a half.
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Hunter Brown and the Astros take on Davis Martin and the White Sox in Chicago. Brown emerged as a star this season, and now ranks 21st on the Bill James Starting Pitcher Rankings, although a Hunter of another color ranks higher. Brown comes in with a 1.22 ERA and 40 K in 37 IP. Martin appears to have traded fewer strikeouts for better control, and so far he lowered his ERA over a run from last season.
The Royals send Kris Bubic against the Orioles and Tomoyuki Sugano. Bubic is back in the rotation after 27 bullpen appearances in 2024 in his return from Tommy John surgery. He continues to pitch well, maintaining his high K rate and low home run rate. Sugano, the 35-year-old rookie, posted a 3.00 ERA so far in six starts. He walked just six batters.
Another Eastern rookie, Roki Sasaki, battles Spencer Schwellenbach as the Dodgers visit the Braves. Sasaki started to go deeper in games, with 16 2/3 of his 25 1/3 innings in his last three starts. His walks have come down a bit also. He walked nine in his first two starts, and nine in his last four. Schwellenbach’s record is just 1-2 despite a 2.87 ERA. Pitchers in relief of Schwellenbach allowed 10 hits and 11 walks in 15 1/3 innings.
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Luis Castillo the Elder of the Mariners faces Nick Lodolo and the Reds in Cincinnati. Castillo comes into the game with a 2.12 ERA in seventeen innings, thanks mostly to a .239 BABIP against him. Lodolo averaged over six inning in his three starts, walking just one batter in 18 2/3 innings.
Spencer Schwellenbach takes on Kevin Gausman as the Braves to battle with the Blue Jays. Schwellenback struck out 19 batters in 20 innings, leading to just ten hits against him. Gausman appears to have bounced back from his high ERA in 2024, cutting his walk rate in half compared to last season.
Finally, Shota Imanaga of the Cubs squares off against Randy Vasquez of the Padres. Imanaga allowed just 14 hits in 23 1/3 innings despite striking out just 14 batters. He and the Cubs defense combined to hold batters to a .167 BABIP. Vasquez owns a 1.72 ERA in 15 2/3 innings despite walking 12 batters. He induced three double plays and the only steal attempt against him failed, removing four base runners.
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The best matchup of the five afternoon games comes in Tampa where the Angels send Jose Soriano against the Rays and Zack Littell. Soriano, now in his third season, consistently puts up ERAs in the mid threes. He does a great job limiting power, with a .329 career slugging percentage allowed. In 2024, Littell pitched his first season strictly as a stater and posted a 3.63 ERA, about 0.3 runs better than his career mark. Since 2022 he limited walks, and only allowed two this season in thirteen innings.
The only evening game features the Phillies at the Braves with Jesus Luzardo battling Spencer Schwellenbach. Luzardo is trying to resurrect his career after allowing a 5.00 ERA in 2024. So far in 2025 he allowed two runs in twelve innings with 19 strikeouts. Schwellenbach has yet to allow a run in 14 innings, holding opponents to three hits and one walk, and one hit batter.
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The Rays face the Tigers with Ryan Pepiot facing Tarik Skubal. The Rays have a tough road to a wild card, but a sweep of the Tigers would likely put them back in the picture. Meanwhile, the Tigers lose tiebreakers to the Royals and Twins, so finishing a game ahead of either of those teams is critical to their wild card hopes. Skubal is at the top of the Cy Young tracker in the AL.
The Orioles send Dean Kremer against Clarke Schmidt and the Yankees. New York need one win in the three-game series to capture the AL East title. Kremer owns a 4.63 ERA against the Yankees in eleven starts, allowing 12 home runs in 56 1/3 innings. Schmidt owns a 1.76 ERA in three starts since coming off the illjured list, but he hasn’t gone deep into games.
The Braves get a chance to catch the Mets in the NL Wild card race as the teams open a three-game set in Atlanta. Luis Severino takes the hill against Spencer Schwellenbach. Severino managed to limit hits without a ton of strikeouts, and his decent walk rate helped balance his home runs allowed. Schwellenbach keeps batters off base with a .284 OBP allowed.
The White Sox can set a modern record for losses in a season as they host the Angels. Both Jack Kochanowicz of LAnaheim and Jonathan Cannon of Chicago give up high slugging percentages, so this could be a rather high scoring game.
The Mariners play game two of their series at the Astros, four games back of Houston with five games to play. The Mariners hold the tiebreaker against Houston, and would only need to gain one more game over the last weekend if they sweep the series. An Astros win gives them the division. It’s Logan Gilbert versus Framber Valdez, a great pitching matchup.
Finally, the Padres visit the Dodgers, three games back of Los Angeles for the NL West title. Michael King takes on Landon Knack. Note that the Padres hold the tie breaker versus the Dodgers, so a sweep puts them in first place. Then, they would only need to play the Dodgers even over the last weekend.
The Rays, Orioles, Mariners, and Padres all play to start or continue a sweep. You might even lump the Braves in there. Should be a terrific Tuesday.
The White Sox try to start September with a win as the Mets send Sean Manaea against Garrett Crochet. Manaea turned out to be an important pickup for the Mets as he posted a 10-5 record with a good 3.51 ERA. He is two wins away from matching his single season high. The White Sox appear to have put Crochet under an inning limit since the start of July. They even gave him full rest after just a few pitches in a suspended game. Maybe they will let him go deeper today if the team has a chance at a win. A loss today would give the White Sox their third losing streak of at least ten games this season.
The Mariners send Bryce Miller against the Angles with Caden Dana making his MLB debut. Miller dropped his ERA over a run compared to his rookie season of 2023. He improved his strikeout rate, which helped him lower his hits per 9 IP. Dana posted an excellent year at AA with a 2.52 ERA in 135 2/3 innings. All his three true outcomes were good to excellent.
Sunday night features the Braves at the Phillies with Spencer Schwellenbach taking on Aaron Nola. Schwellenbach put together a nice rookie season, his one weakness the home run ball. Nola make his 37th start against the Braves. He stands 16-11with a 3.60 ERA. His low walk total against the team makes up for the home runs he allowed.
Enjoy!