Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins appears to have found his old groove in June. He allowed three runs in six innings on Sunday in a 5-3 win over the Braves. That gives him seven runs allowed in 23 innings this month, with five walks and nineteen strikeouts. That’s good for a 2.74 ERA.
We will see if he can establish length again. Alcantara led the majors by a wide margin in innings pitched from 2021 to 2022. Still, it’s great for the Marlins that they can get six good innings from him again.
Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins gave up five runs in five innings to the Dodgers in a 7-4 Los Angeles win Monday night. That brought Alcantara’s ERA up to 8.42. His return from Tommy John surgery has been disappointing.
Compared to his dominant period early in the decade, his strikeouts are down some, but his walks are way up. For his career he walked 2.81 batters per nine innings, but this season that stands at 5.23 per 9 IP. His home runs allowed are up, from 0.94 per nine for his career to 1.74 per nine this season. That’s a huge double whammy as he puts batters on base and supplies the power to drive them around.
Batters seem to be seeing his pitches well, as the average exit velocity against him stands at 91.5 MPH against a career mark of 88.0. Alcantara lost the effectiveness of his sinker. I suspect batters no longer top that pitch into harmless groundouts, they are squaring it up at good launch angles for bit hits.
The Marlins are allowing him to pitch through it, however. I suspect that with enough pitches, he’ll get the feel for his sinker again. Tommy John surgery doesn’t always work, however, so Miami needs to keep in mind that Alcantara may need to reinvent himself to be successful in the majors.
The best opening day match-up takes place between two unlikely playoff contenders, as the Pirates visit the Marlins. Paul Skenes, the 2024 Pittsburgh sensation faces Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins ace shelved since 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. Skenes both missed bats as he struck out 11.5 batters per nine innings pitched, and induced poor contact as the BABIP against him wound up at .284. Combine that with low walk and home run rates, and Skenes went 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA in 23 starts. Alcantara may have been the most valuable pitcher in the majors from 2020 through 2022. In that time his 2.74 ERA ranked seventh in the majors, but he posted the most innings, going deep in starts for Miami. That work load might have led to his elbow issues and his decline in 2023.
When I was young, opening day happened with a single game in Cincinnati in recognition of the start of professional baseball in the city. The Reds host the Giants today with Logan Webb taking on Hunter Greene. Webb is the only pitcher in the majors with over 200 innings in each of the last two seasons. He gets their by posting both a low K rate and a low walk rate, so there are not a lot of extra pitches. He allows hits, but limits the damage. Greene figured out how to limit home runs in 2024, bringing his ERA down to 2.75 in his third major league season. He added a splitter, which he used sparingly, as any out pitch should be used.
Finally, the Tigers at the Dodgers features a pair of Cy Young winners as Tarik Skubal battles Blake Snell. Skubal and Snell are one-two respectively in MLB ERA since the start of the 2023 season. Both do a great job of limiting home runs. Skubal’s strength comes from limiting walks, while Snell blows batters away with strikeouts.
Enjoy!
The Bill James Starting Pitcher Rankings provides an insight into which starter is the best in the game today. It uses James’ game score to compute a power ranking. The entire history of starts is included for each pitcher, but the recent past counts more heavily.
This spreadsheet looks at pitchers from 2014-2023 who occupied the top spot for at least one day. The chart shows how those pitcher jockeyed for position across the decade. It was a time mostly dominated by four pitchers, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, and Justin Verlander. Each of those four spent at least 100 days as the top pitcher (April through September). Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, and Jacob deGrom all experience brief stints at the top. deGrom really had a Cody Jarrett moment. He pitches on 7/7/2021 to reach the top, only to be sidelined with forearm tightness for the rest of the season. He then suffers a shoulder injury the following spring and doesn’t pitch again until August.
Please notice on the graph how the top scores in a season dropped in the 2020s. Given the short 2020 season, no one had time to reach a 600. In the three subsequent seasons, no one reached it either. This reflects starters pitching less and less. Outs recorded in a start is a huge factor in the game score. Simply by going deep in games, Cole is able to maintain his top ranking. Notice how this helped Sandy Alcantara during the 2022 season.
The next decade should be different. We may see someone who averages under seven innings a start reach the peak for a while. Or we may see some youngster who is able to consistently go deep in games dominate the decade. It’s possible we never see a rank score of 600 again.
Update: Fixed the link to the current data.
Florida teams square off in Miami as the Rays send Aaron Civale against Sandy Alcantara. Civale overall allowed just six home runs this season in 97 1/3 innings, one in 20 1/3 innings for the Rays. Alcantara had a bit of an off year, but his ERA stands at 3.03 since the All-Star Break, down from 4.72 before the break. The improvement appears to be from fewer walks.
Young pitchers square off in Boston with JP France of the Astros facing Brayan Bello of the Red Sox. France pitched great on the road this season, 5-2 with a 1.92 ERA. Only three of his 14 home runs came away from Houston. Bello does a good job of limiting power with a .429 slugging percentage allowed. That drops to .368 with runners on base, when power can do the most damage.
Corbin Burnes faces Justin Steele as the Brewers try to push the Cubs farther down in the standings. Only four of Burnes’ nine appearances in Chicago came as starts, and he tended to walk batters there at a higher rate than usual for him. Steele goes for his fifteenth win of the season. His 2.80 ERA comes from a combination of limiting walks and home runs.
Finally, Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks tries to stop the Dodgers onslaught as he faces Clayton Kershaw. The two met three times in the past, with Kershaw going 3-0 with a 0.48 ERA, Kelly posting an 0-3 record with a 5.82 ERA.
Enjoy!
Sandy Alcantara allowed nine earned run in four innings against the Phillies and is take out of the game. It’s a rare poor performance by the Marlins ace. His game score of nine ties for the second lowest game score of his career.
On 8/6/2021, Alcantara pitched at Coors field and gave up ten runs, all earned, and ten hits against the Rockies for a game score of zero. That surpassed his 5/14/2021 performance at Dodger Stadium, where Los Angeles scored eight earned runs in 1 1/3 innings for a game score of 9. He pitched longer tonight but the earned runs are deadly.
Note that Alcantara has 11 games with a game score of at least 80, and only three below 20.
The Phillies lead the Marlins 9-0 in the sixth inning.
Sandy Alcantara pitches the first complete game of the 2023 season. He throws exactly 100 pitches allowing three hits and one walk. Twins pitchers also allowed three hits and a walk, but one of the Marlins hits was a home run by Avisail Garcia as Miami takes the game 1-0. It’s the first loss of the season for Minnesota.
Alcantara pitched six complete games in 2022, and his seven since the start of that season is more than twice as much as any other pitcher. He’s becoming a modern Greg Maddux, limiting pitches to increase his innings workload.
Logan Webb and the Giants takes on Gerrit Cole and the Yankees in The Bronx in one of the first games of the new season. In the last two seasons as a full-time starter, Webb proved capable to limiting all elements of offense. Opponents hit just .237/.292/.340 against him. He allowed just 20 home runs in a little over 340 innings. Cole allowed 57 home runs in the same time period, but due to his .264 opposition OBP, 36 of those came with the bases empty.
The Blue Jays and Alek Manoah meet Miles Mikolas in St. Louis in a 4 PM EDT game against the Cardinals. Manoah quickly rose as one of the best pitchers in the game. His 2.60 ERA over the last two seasons ranks third in the majors (300 IP). With low strikeout and walk rates, batters make contact against Mikolas, but a high ground ball rate with good defense behind him held his BABIP to just .278.
At the same time, what might be the best pitching match-up of the day takes place in Miami as Max Scherzer and the Mets take on Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins. The ERA rankings linked above show Scherzer first and Alcantara sixth over the last two seasons. Alcantara has the added advantage of being an iron man, pitching 36 2/3 innings more than anyone else in that time frame, the only pitcher over 400 innings.
Finally, two teams trying to break a World Championship drought meet in Seattle as Shane Bieber of the Guardians faces Luis Castillo of the Mariners. Bieber greatly decreased his walk rate in 2022. His strikeout rate went down, also but not enough to hurt his hit prevention. He wound up with the best season of his career. Castillo has always been good at limiting power, but had his best season in 2022, limiting hitters to a .332 slugging percentage.
Enjoy!
Paul Goldschmidt takes home the NL MVP award:
First baseman Paul Goldschmidt was named the 2022 National League MVP, giving the Cardinals a league record 18 winners.
BBWAA.com
I thought the vote would be a bit closer, since very good cases could be made for both Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado. Goldschmidt took 22 first place votes and eight second place votes. Machado ranged from first to fifth with seven first place and 13 second place votes. Arenado picked up just one first place vote, but 15 third place votes.
I would not have voted for Goldschmidt due to his last-season fade. It seems the day it appeared he had a shot at the triple crown, he faded from contention. He was just okay the last quarter of the season.
Sandy Alcantara finished tenth, best for an NL pitcher, with two voters ranking him fourth.
Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins and Justin Verlander of the Astros each their league’s Cy Young Award unanimously.
This is only the second time in Cy Young Award voting, which dates to 1956, that the winners in both leagues in the same season were unanimous. The other year was 1968 with McLain in the AL and the Cardinals’ Bob Gibson in the NL.
BBWAA.com
Both men posted impressive numbers. Verlander didn’t really have competition in the AL, as his 1.85 ERA came in 0.45 runs lower than Dylan Cease, who finished second in the voting. In the NL A good case could be made for Julio Urias, whose 2.16 ERA led Alcantara by 0.12 points, and his 17-7 record beat Alcantara’s 14-9 mark. Alcantata, however, pitched 53 2/3 more innings than Urias, the Marlins starter going old school to record six complete games. He also allowed just 16 home runs.
Congratulations to two great pitchers on their well deserved throphies!
The Orioles send Austin Voth against the Yankees as Aaron Judge tries to set a new AL single season home run record. Judge split his home runs evenly this season, hitting 30 at home and 31 on the road.
The Mets send Jacob deGrom against the Braves and Max Fried, New York one game ahead of Atlanta for the NL East lead. The Mets need to win one of the three games in this series to hold the tie-breaker, so the Braves really need to sweep this series to give themselves a good chance of winning the NL East. deGrom blew batters away this season with 91 K and just eight walks in 58 1/3 innings. He has allowed six home runs, however, and the Braves have an excellent power club. Fried makes his fifth start against the Mets this season, and so far he is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA. He allowed New York just 19 hits in 24 innings.
The Marlins try to keep the Brewers from gaining a wild card slot as Sandy Alcantara takes on Corbin Burnes. Alcantara’s 220 2/3 innings is the second most in a season in the 2017-2022 time frame. Justin Verlander threw 223 innings in 2019. Alcantara can blow by that. Burnes is in a two month tough streak in which he allowed a 4.61 ERA in eleven starts.
The Rays try once again to clinch a playoff slot as they send Drew Rasmussen against the Astros and Framber Valdez. In his short career, Rasmussen owns a 15-8 record with a 3.05 ERA. He allowed just 190 hits in 230 1/3 innings. Valdez, in his first full season, posts a 2.69 ERA to go with a 16-5 record. He allowed just eleven home runs in 191 innings.
Enjoy!
Saturday’s games stir up the order of the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, but the players remain the same. Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals remains on top after going one for two with two walks and a hit by pitch in a 6-5 walk-off win against the Braves. Kenley Jansen walked in the winning run in the bottom of the ninth. Goldschmidt’s teammate, Nolan Arenado, celebrated the birth of his first child as he comes off the paternity list to go four for four with a hit by pitch, double, and home run for the highest game score of the day, an 84. That moves him up to third place.
Aaron Judge of the Yankees stays in second place after drawing a walk in four PA in a 3-2, eleven inning Athletics win. The game remained scoreless during regulation, as Domingo German of the Yankees and Adam Oiler of the Athletics each pitched five hitless innings, German giving up three hits in 7 2/3 innings, Oiler going a full eight. That Yankees hit would be the only on they recorded in the game. They took a 2-0 lead in the tenth on walks and errors. The A’s tied the game in the bottom of the inning on a Stephen Vogt home run then won it when DJ LeMahieu made a bad throw as he tried to get the second out on a double play grounder in the 11th. Two very different games in one.
Goldschmidt now holds a 0.04 probability of winning the triple crown, as his probability of winning the batting title goes up a notch.
Judge’s home run pace remains at 63 with his most likely total 58. His probability of hitting at least 62 home runs drops to 0.088.
Fourth place belongs to Alex Bregman of the Astros, 0 for 3 in a 3-1 Orioles win. With three wins in a row, the Orioles are just 1 1/2 games out of the third wild card slot in the AL and just two games out of the top slot.
Fifth place goes to Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers, one for four in a 2-1 Marlins win. Sandy Alcantara records his fourth complete game of the season as he walks two and strikes out ten. The last time a pitcher recorded four complete games in a season was 2017, when Ervin Santana and Corey Kluber each recorded five.
The Angels and Blue Jays get things started as Shohei Ohtani takes on Alek Manoah. Ohtani improved on his pitching performance from 2021, mainly by reducing good contract. His line drive percentage is down 1 1/2 points, and that’s leading to more balls on the ground. Manoah improved his already good control over his rookie season. In 37 more innings he allowed three fewer walks.
Dustin May makes his second start after Tommy John surgery and faces Sandy Alcantara as the Dodgers continue their series in Miami. May pitched five shutout innings against the Marlins in his 2022 debut, and now owns a 2.81 ERA in 118 2/3 MLB innings. Alcantara got knocked around by the Dodgers his last time out, allowing six runs in 3 2/3 innings. That was easily his roughest start of the season.
The Orioles continue to impress as Dean Kremer takes on the Astros and Jose Urquidy. Kremer may be helped by the reconfiguration of Camden Yards. Last season he allowed 13 of his 17 home runs at home. This season he allowed three of his seven home runs at home. Urquidy is pretty much repeating his 2021 season, but with more innings. He went 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA last year, 12-4 with a 3.63 ERA this year.
Enjoy!
The Padres visit the Marlins with Joe Musgrove taking on Sandy Alcantara. Musgrove lost three of his four starts since the All-Star break without a win. While his walks and strikeouts in that time are great, he allowed four home runs in 23 innings. Alcantara is very tough to hit at home, with just 61 hits allowed in 90 innings, good for a 1.80 ERA.
The Mets travel to Atlanta with a 5 1/2 game lead over the Braves. Carlos Carrasco takes on Spencer Strider. Carrasco’s ERA is about a run higher on the road than at home,, but he walked just nine batters in 49 innings. Strider allowed just one of his five home runs at home this year.
The Mariners send Luis Castillo against the Angels and Shohei Ohtani. Castillo gave the Mariners more than they expected so far, with 14 2/3 innings in two starts and a 1.84 ERA. Ohtani improved his control for the second straight year, with just 27 walks in 111 innings.
Note that in game two of the doubleheader between Detroit and Cleveland, Xzavion Curry make his major league debut for the Guardians. He is the first MLB player named Xzavion, and may be the first professional player with that name as well. Of course we are still waiting for the first MLB player with a last name that begins with an X. He owns a 16-5 record in the minor leagues with a 2.90 ERA in 198 2/3 innings. He is a high K, low BB pitcher.
Enjoy!
Sandy Alcantara throws his first shutout of the season, and his third complete game as the Marlins down the Reds 3-0. Threw just 105 pitches as he allowed six hits and one walk. The Reds did put the ball in play with just three strike outs, but it only resulted in six hits. The Marlins turned two double plays, and Joey Votto was out going for a double, so Alcantara faced just 31 batters.
Alcantara is first to three complete games. Framber Valdez of the Astros has two, the only other pitcher this season with multiple complete games.
Luis Castillo makes his Mariners debut as he faces the Yankees and Gerrit Cole. Castillo comes over to the AL with a 2.86 ERA, thanks to just 63 hits allowed in 85 innings. Cole goes for his tenth win of the season. It would be the eighth year in which he reached double digits.
The Reds send Mike Minor in Castillo’s slot as they play the Marlins. Sandy Alcantara starts for the fish. Minor comes off a good July in which he allowed a 4.91 ERA, after giving up a 7.71 ERA in June. Alcantara tries for his first season with ten wins. He leads the majors with 149 1/3 innings pitched and the NL in ERA.
Enjoy!
A few years ago Tom Tango came up with formula for a Cy Young Award Tracker. Baseball Musings added a page to the Day by Day Database to make this tracking available to the public, along with the Bill James version of his tracker. Both were designed to predict who the voters would pick, not who is the best pitcher. Over the years, an enhanced version of the Tango tracker and another Bill James stat, Season Score, joined the page.
Many years ago I worked for the Center for Intelligent Information Retrieval at UMass Amherst. One of the research projects at the time involved aggregating the results of different search engines. It turned out that if you used search engine results as a voting system, the aggregate rank of a page was more accurate than the rank of any individual search engine.
About the time of the introduction of the trackers, more Cy Young voters started to look at WAR as part of their decision process. With an fWAR and rWAR, we can aggregate six different systems to see the likely voting of the sports writers, should the ballot be cast today. The players are ranked by a Borda count, five points for first place, one point for fifth place, and a zero if the pitcher is not ranked in the top five of a particular system.
Here are the AL Results:
| AL | Tango | Tango Enhanced | Bill James | Season Score | fWAR | rWAR | Total |
| Shane McClanahan | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 28 |
| Justin Verlander | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 19.5 |
| Alek Manoah | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| Dylan Cease | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| Gerrit Cole | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Kevin Gausman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| Clay Holmes | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Logan Gilbert | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shane Bieber | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Martin Perez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
The systems all put McClanahan first or second, and he wins with a big lead over Verlander. The two WAR systems greatly disagree on Verlander and Guasman. FanGraphs WAR tends to focus on the intrinsic value of the pitcher, especially the three true outcomes. Baseball Reference WAR tends to look at overall results.
The Tango and James trackers disagree on Cole and Cease. The WARs agree with Tango, and Cease outperforms Cole in Totals column.
Here are the NL Results:
| NL | Tango | Tango Enhanced | Bill James | Season Score | fWAR | rWAR | Total |
| Sandy Alcantara | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 29 |
| Max Fried | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| Corbin Burnes | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| Tony Gonsolin | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Carlos Rodon | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| Aaron Nola | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| Tyler Anderson | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Kyle Wright | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Zack Wheeler | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Logan Webb | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Alcantara takes first in five of the six trackers, Gonsolin beating him out in the Bill James tracker. There is no clear second choice here. The Tango trackers like Burnes. The James trackers like Gonsolin. The WARs like Fried and Nola. In a Borda count, if there is no clear first choice, the consensus second choice often wins. In this case, the consensus third choice, Fried, finishes second.
It looks like there are clear leaders in both leagues, it the rest of the choices that are difficult.
Team shutouts continue to run high as a percentage of starts. The 2022 season produced 189 shutouts in 2626 starts, 7.20%. In the 30 team era (1998 on), only the 2014 season produced a higher percentage of shutouts, 7.26%. It’s quite possible the way scoring is going that 2022 surpasses 2014. Of those 189 shutouts, only six came as a complete game by the starter. Many years ago I came up with the idea of the short shutout. A starter gets credit for a short shutout if he pitches at least six innings of shutout ball (and if he completes the game). This gives us an idea of which pitchers, in an era where complete games are forbidden, still are great at stopping scoring. Here are the current leaders in short shutouts.
| Pitcher | Complete Game Shutouts | Short Shutous |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 0 | 6 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 0 | 5 |
| Corbin Burnes | 0 | 5 |
| Gerrit Cole | 0 | 5 |
| Joe Musgrove | 0 | 5 |
| Martin Perez | 1 | 5 |
Note that a short shutout doesn’t always result in a team shutout, as Gerrit Cole found out Tuesday night.
The Marlins send their star pitcher, Sandy Alcantara, against the Mets and Taijuan Walker. Alcantara goes for his tenth win of the season, and it would be the first time he reached double digits in victories. He allowed just 82 hits and 30 walks in 123 1/3 innings for a WHIP of 0.91. Walker would be the ace of may starting staffs. He limits hits without a lot of strikeouts, 61 Ks in 78 2/3 innings.
Drew Smyly takes on Julio Urias as the Cubs visit the Dodgers. Smyly walked just ten batters in 42 2/3 innings, somewhat blunting the damage of the eight home runs he allowed. Urias stands 7-6 despite both a 2.57 ERA and playing for the best offensive team in the National League. He appeared in seven games where the Dodgers scored three runs or fewer.
The Yankees finish their series in Fenway as the Red Sox go for a split. Jameson Taillon battles Nick Pivetta. Taillon owns a 6.16 ERA in his last six starts, but managed a 3-1 record. He gave up 44 hits in 30 2/3 innings, six of them home runs. Pivetta is as tough on left-handed batters as righties, with a .203/.290/.350 slash line against lefties, .232/.293/.364 when Pivetta has the platoon advantage.
Enjoy!
Most months the choice of offensive players can be tough. June 2022 offers no such comparisons. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros hit .418/.510/.835. He led in all three categories. Kyle Schwarber led in home runs, but he and the other HR leaders did not have the overall hits. Amed Rosario picked up 41 hits, but in many more PA. That may be the big argument against Alvarez, he didn’t have as many PA as some other leaders. Yet he also led the majors in RBI, so he made the most of his opportunities. Congratulations to Yordan Alvarez, the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for June 2022.
Dylan Cease of the White Sox ceased allowing earned runs in June 2022, giving up just one earned run in 27 1/3 innings. It came on a solo home run for an ERA of 0.33. This is not a slam dunk, however, as Cease allowed nine unearned runs. If someone gives up nine unearned runs in 27 1/3 innings, it’s not all the fault of the defense. He did lead the majors in K per nine innings, however.
Tony Gonsolin of the Dodgers might be a better choice. He posted a 1.24 ERA in 29 innings, all four of his runs allowed earned. His strikeout rate was low, but he still avoided hits with just 14 allowed to go along with seven walks. That led to a 4-0 record.
Neither Mitch Keller nor Kevin Gausman allowed home runs in the month, but that feat did not lead to low ERAs.
Going deep into the game should count for something, and Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins made six starts and lasted 47 2/3 innings, easily leading the majors in innings pitched. He posted a 1.86 ERA. His strikeout rate was low at 6.42 per nine, but allowed just 34 hits. In addition, his walk rate came in at 1.51 per 9, and he allowed just two home runs. He was a complete pitcher.
Congratulations to Sandy Alcantara, the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for June 2022.
The Mets and the Marlins kick off action tonight in Miami as Taijuan Walker faces Sandy Alcantara. Walker owns a 2.88 ERA, but he’s not really allowed to get into trouble as he’s averaging a bit over five innings per start. He allowed just three home runs in 59 1/3 innings. Alcantara does go deep in games, as he leads the majors in innings pitched.
Houston takes on the Yankees with Justin Verlander battling Luis Severino. Verlander showed some problems pitching in The Bronx in his career, 4-4 there with a 4.09 ERA. He allowed 15 home runs in 70 1/3 innings. Severino is 3-0 at home this season with a 2.33 ERA. The Yankees won fifteen games in a row at home, the starters 10-0 with a 1.68 ERA in that time.
On the west coast, the Phillies visit the Padres with Aaron Nola taking the hill against MacKenzie Gore. Nola strength is just eleven walks in 89 2/3 innings, but that is balanced by allowing ten home runs. The rookie Gore is the opposite with just four home runs in 54 1/3 innings, but 24 walks.
Enjoy!
Jordan McPherson in the Miami Herald writes a detailed examination of how Sandy Alcantara developed into an elite pitcher for the Marlins. This covers his precise between starts routine, his rich pitch repertoire, his competitive drive, and his willingness to eschew strikeouts if he can get an out on weak contact. I very much like this aspect of Alcantara’s game:
Alcantara paces himself for this. He conserves his energy early in his starts so that he can unleash his full potential late.
“I know how to use my velo and how to use my pitches,” Alcantara said. “I try not to do too much in the first three or four innings, then after that just try to throw as hard as I can.”
The data backs this up. According to Statcast, Alcantara’s average fastball velocity has been the highest this season in the eighth (98.2 mph) and seventh innings (98.1 mph). It averages anywhere from 97.4 mph to 97.7 mph over the first six innings.
MiamiHerald.com
Justin Verlander pitches that way. Verlander also goes deep in games with a long and successful career. Having Verlander as your ceiling is very promising.
There’s a sparse schedule Monday night, with the best game between the Marlins and the Phillies in the City of Brotherly Love. Sandy Alcantara takes on Aaron Nola. The Phillies stand 9-1 in June, the Marlins 8-4. Both teams are in the Wild Card hunt in the NL.
Alcantara ranks second in the NL in ERA at 1.61. He holds opponents to a .190/.263/.276 slash line. Part of that is his home park, but OBP and slugging allowed are still below .300 on the road. Nola’s main difference with Alcantara is his slugging percentage allowed, .370. He allowed ten home runs to Alcantara’s four, but holds opponents to a .205 BA and a .249 OBP.
Enjoy!
A third of the way through the season, no clear candidate emerged for the Cy Young Award in either league. Here are four measures that try to predict voter preferences:
We also can rank pitchers by the two different WARs
It would be unusual today for a reliever to win the award, but Holmes is having a fantastic season. Alcantara appears to be the front runner in the NL, and I would guess Perez might get the nod in the AL if the vote was taken today. Perez has now gone 63 1/3 innings without allowing a home run. While home runs are down this season from recent years, they are still high historically.
Logan Gilbert takes on Sandy Alcantara as the Mariners try to end the Marlins win streak. Gilbert comes in with a 0.40 ERA in 22 1/3 innings. He allowed just 15 hits and four walks, and only one hit with runners in scoring position. Alcantara allowed 20 hits and 10 walks in 25 1/3 innings, but only three of those hits went for extra bases.
The Sunday night game features a nice match-up as well, with Zach Eflin of the Phillies taking on Max Scherzer of the Mets. Eflin, who tends to give up the long-ball in his career, allowing just one home run in 19 2/3 innings this season. Scherzer appears as in control as ever, striking out 33 batters in his first 25 innings of 2022.
Enjoy!
Philadelphia faces division rival Miami as Kyle Gibson battles Sandy Alcantara. Gibson, in his tenth season, got off to a strong start as held the Athletics to two hits in seven innings, striking out ten. He improves his K rate in the second half of this career, going from 6.2 K per 9 IP through 2017 to 8.3 K per 9 since then. Alcantara has been consistently good since his first full season in 2019, with batters hitting .231/.301/.378 against him.
The Reds and Dodgers play the late game, with Luis Cessa taking on Walker Buehler. Cessa makes his first start of the season and his first since 2018 with the Yankees. He gives up few hits despite giving batters a chance to put the ball in play against him. Buehler owns the best winning percentage in the majors since the start of the 2018 season for pitchers with a minimum of 60 starts.
Enjoy!
Juan Soto of the Nationals remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings despite an 0 for 3 after Sandy Alcantara shuts down the Nationals with eight shutout innings, the Marlins taking the game 3-0. Bryce Harper did not gain much ground as he and the Phillies rested on Monday. Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals did play and posted a two for four game with a home run and a walk to sit in third place. St. Louis downed the Mets 7-0.
Mookie Betts of the Dodgers moves into fourth place after collecting a double and a walk in a 5-1 win over the Diamondbacks. Kyle Tucker of the Astros went one for four in a 15-1 blowout of the Rangers and sits in fifth place.
Rookie Jose Siri of the Astros posts the best game score of the day, an 86. He goes four for five with two home runs and five RBI. That was his first MLB start and sixth game. He’s now five for nine with two homers and two stolen bases. His minor league number do not project him as a star, however, and he already seasonal age 25.
Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins retired the first fifteen Nationals he faced this evening, striking out three. Alek Manoah is up to 13 straight Rays set down, striking out five. Two perfect games in one night would fit right in with this no-hitter season.
Update: Joey Wendle lines a single with two out in the fifth to end Manoah’s no-hit bid.
Update: Jazz Chisholm commits an error on a Keibert Ruiz grounder, and the perfect game is over in Washington, although the no-hitter is still intact.
Update: Alcantara gets the next three batters and keeps the no-hitter alive through six innings.
Update: With two out in the bottom of the seventh inning, Josh Bell hits a ball off the wall in right for a single. Alcantara’s no hitter is over.
The Red Sox and Yankees play a doubleheader, the first game at 1 PM EDT, the second at 7 PM EDT. New York is two games back of Boston and 1 1/2 games behind Oakland in the AL Wild Card race, so a sweep by the Yankees at least puts them in a tie for a playoff slot. Tanner Houck and Jordan Montgomery square off in game one, while Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Gil go in game two. Both Houck and Gil are rookies pitching well. Houck in two seasons owns a 2.08 ERA in 47 2/3 innings. He struck out 65 and walked 16. Gil made two starts without allowing a run. He struck out 14 and walked three in eleven innings.
The Braves are starting to take control of the NL East as they send Huascar Ynoa against the Marlins and Sandy Alcantara. Ynoa makes his first appearance since breaking his hand on a dugout wall on May 16th. He comes into the game with a 3.02 ERA, and should give the Braves a boost in the rotation for the stretch run. Alcantara is both helped and hurt by his ballpark. He owns a 2.58 ERA at home, but is just 1-6 in Miami as the Miami offense doesn’t score there either. Seven times this season the Marlins scored one or no runs in a home start for the Miami ace.
The Brewers and Cardinals meet in St. Louis, the red birds suddenly back in the wild card race. Corbin Burnes takes on Adam Wainwright. Burnes owns a 2.19 ERA since the start of the 2020 season, with only Jacob deGrom posting a better mark. Wainwright ranks 15th, not bad for someone two weeks away from turning 40.
The Athletics send Chris Bassitt against the White Sox and Reynaldo Lopez. Bassitt ranks third in Tom Tango Cy Young points in the AL, mostly due to many fewer strikeouts than Lance Lynn and Gerrit Cole. It looks like the AL will be a tight vote. Lopez makes his third start, and has one earned run in six innings in that role.
Finally, the Mets and Giants square off with Marcus Stroman taking on Logan Webb. Stroman owns a slightly better ERA on the road this season despite giving up eight of his twelve home runs away. Webb owns all around good three-true outcome numbers, allowing just seven home runs in 85 innings.
Enjoy!
The Marlins send Sandy Alcantara against the Orioles and Spenser Watkins. Alcantara now owns a 3.57 career ERA, but a poor team behind him resulted in a 16-28 record. His strength is limiting hits despite a low strikeout rate for this era. The rookie Watkins makes his fifth appearance and fourth start. So far he’s been wild, with eight walks in 16 1/3 innings, but opponents are 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position, leading to a 1.65 ERA.
The Dodgers get another crack at the Giants as Julio Urias faces Logan Webb. Urias walks one batter for every five he strikes out, so the 17 home runs he allowed led to limited damage. Webb owns a 1.64 ERA at home this season thanks to just 15 hits allowed in twenty two innings.
Houston visits Seattle, with the Mariners making a bid for the second wild card slot, just one game behind the Athletics. Lance McCullers Jr.battles Chris Flexen. McCullers appeared to be helped by the deadened ball, with just six home runs allowed in 91 2/3 innings. Flexen’s low K rate leads to a high number of hits allowed, but he balances that with just twenty two walks in 104 2/3 innings.
Enjoy!