Tag Archives: Freddie Freeman

October 28, 2025

Freeman Sends the Crowd Home

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The Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 6-5 Monday night (at least it was still Monday in Los Angeles) in an eighteen inning game ended by a Freddie Freeman home run.

The Blue Jays put a bat in the hands of every position player on their roster in this game, and it didn’t help their cause that their ALCS hero, George Springer, had to be replaced in the seventh because of right side discomfort that required further testing. Toronto’s 67 at-bats in this game set a World Series record, and the Blue Jays regrettably stranded a Series-record 19 runners.

The Dodgers set a Series team record, too, using 10 pitchers in all, including the retiring Clayton Kershaw in a relief role for a key out in the 12th. We knew we’d see one future Hall of Famer in this game with Max Scherzer starting for the Blue Jays, but Kershaw’s presence was definitely unscripted.

MLB.com

The teams combined to go 4 for 26 with runners in scoring position, which made the game so edge of your seat. There were plenty of opportunities to end the game, and some fine defensive plays to keep that from happening.

Freeman is the first player to hit two walk off homers in World Series play, and Ohtani set a record by reaching base nine times on four hits and five walks, four of them intentional. A game for the ages.

October 25, 2025

Tough to Pull

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Kevin Gausman got the first two Dodgers hitters to fly out to the opposite field. Freddie Freeman had problems, too, but finally put the bat on the ball with a sort swing and dumped a double into rightfield. Will Smith followed with a single up the middle and the Dodgers are off to an early 1-0 lead on the Blue Jays.

Update: The Blue Jays have the opposite first inning. The first two batters doubled and singled, putting runners on first and third Yoshinobu Yamamoto the records a strikeout, a lineout, and another K to end the inning and hold the Dodgers 1-0 lead.

October 13, 2025 September 26, 2025

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge of the Yankeesreturned to the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a two for three with a double and two walks in a 5-3 win over the White Sox. The Yankees keep place with the Blue Jays, and with the Red Sox losing, either New York or Toronto will be the top wild card seed and get to host the first round.

Cal Raleigh of the Mainers ranks second after an 0 for 4 night with a walk in a 6-2 win over the Rockies. It seems appropriate in what is likely to be a close MVP vote, that these two should be 1-2.

Juan Soto of the Mets dropped to third place after an 0 for 5 in an 8-5 win over the Cubs, the Mets maintaining their one-game lead for the final NL Wild Card slot. Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino of the Royals rank four and five respectively. Witt went four for five with two doubles, bringing his season total to 46. Pasquantino posted a one for four with a home run and a walk in the 9-4 win over the Angels.

Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers posted the best game score of the day, a 78. He went two for three with a walk and two home runs in an 8-0 win over the Diamondbacks, putting Arizona two games back in the NL Wild Card race. Freeman’s career BA is now at .300.

September 23, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Freeman owns a six for 19 against Pfaadt in their careers with one walk and three strikeouts. That would be an actual hit average of .300!

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

It’s a very low probability day. Freeman stands at the consensus top pick, while Simpson is the consensus double down choice. Arraez extended his hit streak to eleven games on Monday as the Padres clinched a wild card slot.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 10, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Freeland pitched very well his last time out, but overall it looks like the Dodgers should have another good offensive night.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

Romy Gonzalez was just off the bottom of each list and owns a twelve-game hit streak, the longest in the majors currently. Freeman is the consensus top pick, with Ohtani and Pages tying for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 9, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Even at Dodger Stadium, a Rockies pitcher has the ability to set bats on fire.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.330, 0.723 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. German Marquez.
  • 0.290, 0.721 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Dustin May.
  • 0.295, 0.719 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Zack Littell.
  • 0.295, 0.701 — Amed Rosario batting vs. Casey Mize.
  • 0.271, 0.701 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Luis Garcia.
  • 0.310, 0.700 — Shohei Ohtani batting vs. German Marquez.
  • 0.287, 0.698 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Mitchell Parker.
  • 0.252, 0.697 — Miguel Andujar batting at Michael King.
  • 0.313, 0.697 — Andy Pages batting vs. German Marquez.
  • 0.315, 0.694 — Hyeseong Kim batting vs. German Marquez.

Freeman is seven for 30 against Marquez in their careers with three walks and six strikeouts. Ohtani just beats out Arraez for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 30, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

The Reds sometimes sit Andujar versus right-handed pitching, so check to see if he is in the lineup today. Freeman is dealing with a minor injury, but did play Friday night.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.313, 0.729 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
  • 0.309, 0.709 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.282, 0.707 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Quinn Priester.
  • 0.298, 0.706 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.271, 0.706 — Luis Arraez batting at Taj Bradley.
  • 0.272, 0.702 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.283, 0.695 — Yandy Diaz batting at Jake Irvin.
  • 0.282, 0.691 — Jose Altuve batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.286, 0.691 — Chandler Simpson batting at Jake Irvin.
  • 0.250, 0.690 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.290, 0.690 — Noelvi Marte batting vs. Michael McGreevy.

The two systems agree on Andujar and Freeman on the top. If you are unsure of them, the next tier down would be Pena number one and Bichette as the double down. Note that Witt and Bichette own the two longest current hit streaks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 19, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It looks like another good day for a team visiting Colorado. Freeman collected two hits Monday night in the 4-3 Rockies win.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.309, 0.727 — Miguel Andujar batting at Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.329, 0.727 — Freddie Freeman batting at Austin Gomber.
  • 0.307, 0.722 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
  • 0.283, 0.717 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Kai-Wei Teng.
  • 0.310, 0.706 — Shohei Ohtani batting at Austin Gomber.
  • 0.313, 0.702 — Andy Pages batting at Austin Gomber.
  • 0.287, 0.701 — Bo Bichette batting at Mitch Keller.
  • 0.300, 0.699 — Jose Ramirez batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.296, 0.694 — Steven Kwan batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.291, 0.694 — Noelvi Marte batting at Kyle Hendricks.

Andujar really is first, with his probability .7271 versus .7269 for Freeman. Since Andujar moved to Cincinnati, he is putting the ball in play less, but his BABIP went from .321 to .407, and he’s homering more frequently. Freeman stands as the consensus top pick, with Andujar the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 18, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Freeman hit dismally in June and July, but picked it up again so far in August. The lefty-lefty matchup worked in Freeland’s favor during their careers, however, producing a .206/.282/.294 slash line. Betts hits Freeland poorly, too.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.326, 0.726 — Freddie Freeman batting at Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.301, 0.721 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
  • 0.313, 0.706 — Andy Pages batting at Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.308, 0.706 — Shohei Ohtani batting at Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.272, 0.705 — Miguel Andujar batting at Victor Mederos.
  • 0.302, 0.695 — Teoscar Hernandez batting at Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.269, 0.689 — Jeremy Pena batting at Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.277, 0.688 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Chad Patrick.
  • 0.302, 0.688 — Will Smith batting at Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.237, 0.688 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Robbie Ray.
  • 0.242, 0.680 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Jack Leiter.

Freeman tops both lists, and in fact Freeland may not last long in the game. Pages stands as the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 24, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

  • 0.337, 0.736 — Freddie Freeman batting at German Marquez.
  • 0.330, 0.734 — Jackson Merrill batting vs. Trevor Williams.
  • 0.327, 0.741 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Trevor Williams.
  • 0.321, 0.712 — Andy Pages batting at German Marquez.
  • 0.316, 0.700 — Hyeseong Kim batting at German Marquez.
  • 0.314, 0.709 — Manny Machado batting vs. Trevor Williams.
  • 0.313, 0.712 — Shohei Ohtani batting at German Marquez.
  • 0.313, 0.696 — Will Smith batting at German Marquez.
  • 0.304, 0.695 — Teoscar Hernandez batting at German Marquez.
  • 0.302, 0.719 — Ernie Clement batting at Logan Allen.

It looks like it might be a good day for hitters as the top ten all project to hit averages (H/PA) over .300. The MLB average for 2025 is .219. Freeman is 7 for 27 with three walks and four strikeouts against Marquez for their careers.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.327, 0.741 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Trevor Williams.
  • 0.337, 0.736 — Freddie Freeman batting at German Marquez.
  • 0.330, 0.734 — Jackson Merrill batting vs. Trevor Williams.
  • 0.302, 0.719 — Ernie Clement batting at Logan Allen.
  • 0.313, 0.712 — Shohei Ohtani batting at German Marquez.
  • 0.321, 0.712 — Andy Pages batting at German Marquez.
  • 0.268, 0.711 — Jacob Wilson batting at Tarik Skubal.
  • 0.314, 0.709 — Manny Machado batting vs. Trevor Williams.
  • 0.286, 0.708 — Aaron Judge batting at Chase Burns.
  • 0.280, 0.708 — Ronald Acuna batting at Frankie Montas.

The two systems agree on the top three, but not the order. Freeman comes out as the consensus top pick, with Arraez the double down choice. Freeman ranks third, Arraez sixth in the top nine at MLB.com.

Judge ranks low here due to Burns making his MLB debut, and is seen as a league average pitcher. Burns burned through three minor league levels in this, his first season in professional baseball, seasonal age 22. He struck out tons with few walks. We’ll see how the big slugger handles Burns.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 21, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Wilson and Judge project to exceptionally high hit averages against Allen and Eflin. Note that the longest hit streak in the majors right now belongs to Brooks Lee of the Twins. He stands at 19 games, despite striking out 21 times in the streak. His projected hit average today is .246 and his probability of collecting at least one hit comes in at .638.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.332, 0.756 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Logan Allen.
  • 0.331, 0.734 — Aaron Judge batting vs. Zach Eflin.
  • 0.289, 0.707 — Jose Ramirez batting at Mitch Spence.
  • 0.283, 0.703 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Jake Irvin.
  • 0.286, 0.701 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Aaron Civale.
  • 0.284, 0.698 — Jeremy Pena batting at Jose Soriano.
  • 0.273, 0.697 — Trea Turner batting vs. Griffin Canning.
  • 0.268, 0.697 — Ronald Acuna batting at Eury Perez.
  • 0.291, 0.694 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Emerson Hancock.
  • 0.240, 0.694 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Noah Cameron.
  • 0.279, 0.694 — Steven Kwan batting at Mitch Spence.

The two systems agree on the double down. Judge and Freeman are the only two batters who appear on both these lists and the MLB top nine.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 13, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Despite striking out 28% of the time, Acuna is mashing the ball. He owns a .450 BABIP and a .294 isolated power. With only 78 PA this season, it is a small sample size.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.313, 0.743 — Jacob Wilson batting at Michael Wacha.
  • 0.324, 0.724 — Ronald Acuna batting vs. German Marquez.
  • 0.309, 0.724 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Logan Webb.
  • 0.268, 0.714 — Luis Arraez batting at Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.269, 0.710 — Aaron Judge batting at Garrett Crochet.
  • 0.268, 0.705 — Jackson Merrill batting at Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.300, 0.701 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. Jack Kochanowicz.
  • 0.313, 0.700 — Austin Riley batting vs. German Marquez.
  • 0.276, 0.699 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Luis Severino.
  • 0.285, 0.698 — Jose Ramirez batting at Luis Castillo.

Wilson missed the last two games due to an injury, and I don’t see an updated status on the depth charts. It’s an 8 PM EDT start in Kansas City for the Athletics tonight. Acuna and Wilson tie for the consensus double down choice, but if Wilson doesn’t play, Freeman gets the nod as the double down pick. Freeman faces Webb quite a bit in their regular season careers. That resulted in a 14 for 37, .378, with five strikeouts and two walks. So Freeman puts the ball in play with authority against Webb.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 7, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

A reader asked for an indication of home or away for the batter. So “vs.” indicates the batter is home, at indicates the batter is away.

Wilson owns a seven game hit streak during which he posted a 16 for 31. Note that he is the only batter today with a high projected hit average.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.324, 0.746 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Charlie Morton.
  • 0.283, 0.713 — Freddie Freeman batting at Erick Fedde.
  • 0.274, 0.710 — Luis Arraez batting at Jose Quintana.
  • 0.268, 0.706 — Aaron Judge batting vs. Garrett Crochet.
  • 0.270, 0.697 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Adrian Houser.
  • 0.270, 0.695 — Jackson Merrill batting at Jose Quintana.
  • 0.264, 0.692 — Trea Turner batting at Andrew Heaney.
  • 0.276, 0.690 — Ryan O’Hearn batting at Luis Severino.
  • 0.273, 0.688 — Ronald Acuna batting at Logan Webb.
  • 0.272, 0.684 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting vs. Ranger Suarez.

The two systems agree on Wilson and Freeman as the double down picks. Fedde pitches around Freeman, with five of the six walks issued intentional.

Also note that the suggested players when choosing a batter in Beat the Streak now go out to three digits, make the probabilities comparable to the NN probabilities.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 4, 2025

Best Batter Today

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Tuesday brought no changes to the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains in first place after drawing two walks in a 3-2 win over the Guardians. His BA drops to .387 but his OBP remains near .500 at .485. In the same game, Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez went two for four to hold third place. That raises his BA to .330 and his OBP to 386.

Cal Raleigh of the Mariners sits in second after an 0 for 4 night in a 5-1 Orioles win. The Orioles won their fourth game in a row. Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers drew two walks in a 6-5, eleven inning win over the Mets for fourth place. His teammate, Freddie Freeman, collected two more doubles for 527 in his career, 45th on the all time list. One more and he ties Frank Robinson. Freeman ranks sixth.

Kyle Tucker of the Cubs rounds out the top five. He did not play Tuesday due to a jammed finger.

The highest game score of the day belonged to Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks, an 88. He went three for three with two walks, and two home runs in an 8-3 win over the Braves. Marte owns a .294/.417/.597 slash line on the season, but due to injury only 144 PA, so he doesn’t qualify for any leader boards. He does rank 34th. His table setting partner, Corbin Carroll, went three for four with a walk and two home runs as well, for a game score of 84, second highest on the day. Carroll ranks 82nd.

June 1, 2025

Best Batter Today

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On a day of close shutouts and big blow outs Aaron Judge remained on top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He turned out to be all of the Yankees offense in an 18-2 Dodgers win. Judge went three for four with two home runs to end May with a .398 BA and 21 dingers on the season. He remains a long shot to hit .400.

In the same game, Shohei Ohtani went two for four to remain in third place, while Freddie Freeman singled, doubled, and walked to move into fifth place. That double ties him with Ted Williams and Willie Mays for 46th on the all-time doubles list. Note that the bottom of the Dodgers order, Tommy Edman and Hyeseong Kim combined to go 8 for 9 with three doubles and a home run.

Cal Raleigh of the Mariners held second place, going one for four with a walk and his 22nd home run of the season. Seattle beat Minnesota 5-4 in eleven innings. Jose Ramirez of the Guardians sits in fourth place after a two for three with two walks and a home run in a 7-5 win over the Angels.

Junior Caminero of the Rays posted the highest game score of the day, a 91. He went four for five with two doubles and two home runs in the 16-3 win over the Astros. Caminero is all power this season, with 26 of his 56 hits going for extra bases and just nine walks. That gives him a .512 slugging percentage to go with a .291 OBP. His power comes at a high cost in outs. His 91 is the 13th score of 90 or better this season, only three of those coming in May.

The Rays were one of three teams to score at least 16 runs on the day, the Brewers beating the Phillies 17-7. There were also two 1-0 results on the day.

May 31, 2025

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers lived up to the hype of their head-to-head meeting Friday night. Both went two for five, both homered in the first inning, and both collected a second extra-base hit, Judge a double and Ohtani a second homer. The Dodgers erased an early Yankees lead as Max Fried failed to get an out in the sixth inning and Los Angeles won the game 8=5. Judge and Ohtani remain first and third in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings respectively. That gives Ohtani 22 homers on the season, a pace for 63 on the year. Some people might consider that number a legitimate NL record. Note also that Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers doubled twice, his three for four moving him into the sixth slot. He is on a pace for 45 doubles, which would give him six 40 double seasons for his career. At 524 career doubles, he is tied with Ken Griffey Jr. for 48th all time. His next double ties Willie Mays and Ted Williams.

Cal Raleigh of the Mariners ranks second after a two for four with two home runs, but it wasn’t enough as the Twins take the game 12-6. Raleigh owns 21 homers, and it on a pace for 61 on the season. In the same game, Willi Castro of the Twins posted a game score of 81, the highest on the day. He went two for three with two home runs and two walks from the ninth slot to raise his slash line to .238/.321/.402. The switch hitter performs better against LHP, with all four of his homers coming off left-handers.

Rafael Devers of the Red Sox moved into fourth place with a two for four with a walk in a 5-1 win over the Braves. After a terrible start, Devers now owns a .413 OBP. Seiya Suzuki of the Cubs sits in fifth place. He doubled in a 6-2 Reds win, his 17th of the season. He is tied for fourth in the majors in the category.

May 28, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Judge hit in five straight games with a .389 BA, which I guess puts him in a slump. 🙂 Freeman leads the NL in BA at .356.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.313, 0.730 — Aaron Judge batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.295, 0.729 — Luis Arraez batting against Sandy Alcantara.
  • 0.307, 0.725 — Freddie Freeman batting against Slade Cecconi.
  • 0.307, 0.717 — Brendan Donovan batting against Cade Povich.
  • 0.288, 0.713 — Jackson Merrill batting against Sandy Alcantara.
  • 0.295, 0.713 — Jacob Wilson batting against Lance McCullers.
  • 0.282, 0.708 — Miguel Andujar batting against Lance McCullers.
  • 0.286, 0.707 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.291, 0.696 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.287, 0.696 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Slade Cecconi.

The two systems are in excellent agreement today, with Judge and Freeman the consensus double down picks. Jose Ramirez of the Guardians, with a twenty-two game hit streak, has a .681 probability of extending his streak.

Kikuchi pitched around Judge a lot, as Judge is 5 for 25 with two home runs, six walks, and 12 K against him.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 23, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Note that the Orioles and Red Sox play a split admission doubleheader today, so be careful choosing from those games to assure you get the batter against your preferred starter. There’s a nice mix of high average sluggers (Judge, Goldschmidt, Freeman) and ball in play hitters (Pena, Arraez). One of the nice changes during the last few years is the rise of the complete slugger, someone who is more than just walks and home runs. I know they’ve always existed, but for a long time you did not see them as type of player who would produce a long hit streak.

Of course, this might be due to the disappearance of hitters like Arraez.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.330, 0.746 — Aaron Judge batting against Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.305, 0.737 — Luis Arraez batting against Chris Sale.
  • 0.297, 0.716 — Freddie Freeman batting against Griffin Canning.
  • 0.294, 0.716 — Jackson Merrill batting against Chris Sale.
  • 0.303, 0.707 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.260, 0.698 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Pablo Lopez.
  • 0.307, 0.697 — Jeremy Pena batting against Emerson Hancock.
  • 0.274, 0.695 — Brendan Donovan batting against Zac Gallen.
  • 0.291, 0.693 — Yainer Diaz batting against Emerson Hancock.
  • 0.281, 0.692 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Slade Cecconi.

Judge and Arraez make a nice double down pair, two very different hitters who get great results. Judge has not gone two games in a row without a hit this season. This will be Judge’s first time at Coors Field. That might not be a good thing. New York did not have a day off yesterday, so they are coming into the game with little time to adjust to the altitude.

Goldschmidt rocks Coors Field.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 21, 2025

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge of the Yankees collected another multi-hit game, going two for four with a home run to stay of top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. That raises his batting average on the season to .403. That spreadsheet puts his probability of hitting .400 for the season between 0.000022 and 0.000085. It’s still a very long shot. The Yankees beat the Rangers 5-2.

Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers rank two and four respectively after a 4-3 win over the Diamondbacks. Ohtani doubled and walked, while Freeman hit two doubles and walked. Freeman is starting to hit doubles again after a bit of an off-year for him in 2024. He still has an outside chance at 700 doubles for his career, but it’s going to take a great finishing kick.

Cal Raleigh of the Mariners remained in third place after a one for four with a double, one of only four hits collected by the Mariners on the evening. Adrian Houser of the White Sox pitches six shutout innings for his first win of the season, and Chicago takes the game 1-0.

Kyle Tucker of the Cubs posted the third highest game score of day, a 73, and that moves him into fifth place in the rankings. He went three for four with a walk and a home run in the 14-1 trouncing of the Marlins. His teammate, Seiya Suzuki, posted a game score of 77, the highest of the day. His three for five included a double, home run, and walk. He’s slugging .533 on the season and ranks 17th.

May 20, 2025

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Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays took the day off on Monday, so Judge remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings and Guerrero ranks fourth. Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers did play, and they rank second and fifth respectively. Ohtani hit his seventeenth home run of the season to take the MLB lead, while Freeman went one for four with a double in a 9-5 Diamondbacks win. Three games no separate the top four teams in the NL West as the Dodgers lost four in a row.

Cal Raleigh of the Mariners went 0 for 4 in a 5-1 win over the White Sox and sits in third place. We should continue to see lots of churn in three through five as ten points separate three from thirteen, and ten points separate four from twenty five!

William Contreras of the Brewers posted the best game score of the day, a 79. He went four for four with a walk and two doubles in a 5-4 win over the Orioles. Contreras gets on base this season with a .370 OBP, a hallmark of his career. His power is down, however, as he slugs just .371 this season. Maybe the two doubles is a sign that things are picking up.

May 18, 2025

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Aaron Judge of the Yankees retained first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a one for three night, including a double and two walk in an 8-2 win over the Mets. Judge is now batting .401. After striking out with the bases loaded in the eighth inning, his teammate Cody Bellinger stepped to the plate to deliver a grand slam to cap a perfect night at the plate. Bellinger went three for three with two walks, a double, the homer, and six RBI for a game score of 86, the highest on the day. He extended his hit streak to thirteen games, the longest current streak in the majors.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers held second place with a three for five in a 6-4 win by the Angels, completing a sweep of the Dodgers. Ohtani’s teammate, Freddie Freeman posted a one for four for fourth place.

Cal Raleigh of the Mariners struck out four times but drove in a run with a sacrifice fly in sit in third place. Seattle sweeps San Diego with a 6-1 win. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays singled and walked twice for fifth place, but the Tigers took the game 3-2.

May 18, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Andujar and Simpson both own six-game hit streaks. Judge is coming off an 0 for 5 day, but is hitting .402. The Rookie Simpson owns low walk and strikeout rates with a high BABIP in a very small sample size. The low K rate and high BABIP were features of his minor league career, although he tended to walk more. He should be a good streak generator if this holds up.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.317, 0.733 — Aaron Judge batting against David Peterson.
  • 0.300, 0.716 — Freddie Freeman batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.281, 0.711 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Matthew Liberatore.
  • 0.254, 0.707 — Luis Arraez batting against Bryan Woo.
  • 0.301, 0.705 — Jacob Wilson batting against Justin Verlander.
  • 0.289, 0.703 — Miguel Andujar batting against Justin Verlander.
  • 0.252, 0.698 — Jackson Merrill batting against Bryan Woo.
  • 0.287, 0.690 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against David Peterson.
  • 0.276, 0.689 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.269, 0.686 — Brendan Donovan batting against Michael Wacha.

Both Judge and Freeman collect so many hits that they still own high in-season hit averages. Judge right now is at .341 for 2025, which is ungodly. Just as a point of reference, going into the 1941 season, Joe DiMaggio owned a .313 hit average, which was a big reason he could generate a long hit streak. The pair is the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 18, 2025

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Saturday brought another to the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings as a number of hitters remain close to the bottom three positions in the top five. At the top, both Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers suffered bad days at the plate. Judge went 0 for 5 with three strikeouts in 3-2 Mets win. Judge’s batting average drops to .402. Ohtani goes 0 for 6 with two K in an 11-9 Angels win. Judge remains in first place, but Ohtani drops to third as Cal Raleigh of the Mariners homered and walked twice in a 4-1 win over the Padres. Raleigh moves past Ohtani by 0.02 points.

Ohtani’s teammate, Freddie Freeman went four for five in the game, all singles, to move into fourth place and raise his batting average back to .375. Kyle Tucker of the Cubs sits in fifth place after he drew three walks in a 7-3 win over the White Sox. Tucker is tied for third in the NL with 33 walks.

The best game score of the day belonged to Ezequiel Tovar of the Rockies, an 86. He went five for six with a triple, home run, and two RBI in a 14-12 comeback win over the Diamondbacks, just the eighth win of the season for Colorado. At .263/.300/.408, Tovar is one of the better batters on the team. His teammate, Jordan Beck, was one point behind with a three for five, hitting a triple and two home runs with a walk thrown in for good measure. The Rockies were down 11-6 after five innings, but scored seven runs over the next two inning to win the game.

May 16, 2025

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Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Cal Raleigh of the Mariners did not see action on Thursday. They rank one and three respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings.

Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers rank two and four respectively after they participated in a 19-2 thrashing of the Athletics. Ohtani hit two home runs and drove in six runs in five at bats, while Freeman went two for three to raise his BA to .370. Like Judge in the AL, Freeman leads the NL in all three offensive average categories.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays rounds out the top five. He homered and walked twice in an 8-3 Rays win.

In that same game, Brandon Lowe of the Rays produced the highest game score of the day, a 78. He went three for five with two home runs and four RBI. He needed a good game, as his slash line for the season stands at .220/.272/.373.

May 16, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Freeman went two for three Thursday night before being lifted in a blow out, and is now batting .370 with a .435 OBP. His BABIP stands at .393.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.294, 0.7234 — Aaron Judge batting against Tylor Megill.
0.291, 0.7230 — Jackson Merrill batting against Jhonathan Diaz.
0.283, 0.721 — Luis Arraez batting against Jhonathan Diaz.
0.309, 0.718 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
0.294, 0.717 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Andre Pallante.
0.302, 0.711 — Jacob Wilson batting against Logan Webb.
0.291, 0.703 — Steven Kwan batting against Brady Singer.
0.283, 0.701 — Miguel Andujar batting against Logan Webb.
0.294, 0.701 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
0.291, 0.697 — Amed Rosario batting against Cade Povich.

This is the first time I remember everyone on the NN list also appearing on the Log 5 list. Going out to four decimal places, Judge did finish ahead of Merrill. Freeman and Judge are the consensus double down picks. We are back in the early days of the power hitters, when Babe Ruth and Rogers Hornsby dominated all offensive average categories.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 15, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

MLB scheduled just six games today, and with Trevor Williams allowing a .358 BABIP with a low K rate, the Braves are poised to make noise. The rookie Baldwin owns a .370 BABIP with a low K rate and four home runs in seventy seven PA. Riley actually hits Williams poorly, but Ozuna hits him well.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.292, 0.706 — Jacob Wilson batting against Matt Sauer.
  • 0.292, 0.701 — Freddie Freeman batting against Osvaldo Bido.
  • 0.311, 0.698 — Austin Riley batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.271, 0.692 — Miguel Andujar batting against Matt Sauer.
  • 0.276, 0.688 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.279, 0.686 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Osvaldo Bido.
  • 0.275, 0.679 — Bo Bichette batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.270, 0.679 — Ernie Clement batting against Zack Littell.
  • 0.284, 0.673 — Michael Harris II batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.276, 0.673 — Austin Hays batting against Bryse Wilson.
  • 0.281, 0.672 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Trevor Williams.

I went to eleven today to put Ozuna on this list. Wilson is having a great hit collecting year. His combined strikeout plus walk percentage is just 9.3%, and he owns a .353 BABIP. He puts the ball in play a lot with good results. How better to extend a hit streak?

Riley stands as the consensus top pick, with Wilson and Freeman tied for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 15, 2025

Best Batter Today

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Alex Bregman of the Red Sox works his way into fifth place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He went three for four with a home run in a 6-5 Tigers win, the only extra-base hit of the eleven the Red Sox collected in the game. Twenty six of Bregman’s fifty five hits on the season landed for extra bases for a .589 slugging percentage.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees continued his dominant season with another two for four, and another home run, this one the game winner as New York beats Seattle 3-2. That raises Judge’s batting average to .412, and the probability of him hitting .400 to 0.000059. That’s about six chances in 100,000. He is on a pace for 256 hits. In the same game, Cal Raleigh of the Mariners went two for four and now sits in third place.

Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers stand second and fourth respectively. Ohtani posted the big night, two for four with a walk and a home run, while Freeman singled and walked in four trips to the plate in a 9-3 win over the Athletics. The A’s drop to fourth place in the AL West, but they are only 1 1/2 game out of first place in an extremely tight division.

Rhys Hoskins of the Brewers posted the highest game score of the day, an 87. He experienced a perfect day at the plate, four for four with a walk, a double, and a home run. He made a huge improvement in getting on base this season, from a .303 mark in 2024 up to .396 after yesterday’s performance. It helped seal a 9-5 victory over the Guardians.

May 14, 2025

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Aaron Judge of the Yankees stayed atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings as he posted a one for four with a walk in a 2-1, eleven inning Mariners win. Judge’s BA drops to .410. In the same game, Cal Raleigh of the Mariners went one for four with a double and moves into third place.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers remained in second after drawing a walk in four trips to the plate in an 11-1 Athletics win. His teammate, Freddie Freeman, also drew a walk to drop to fourth place.

Jacob Wilson of the Athletics did lots of the damage in that game, four for five out of the lead-off slot with two home runs out of the five hit by the A’s. Wilson’s game score of 86 topped the evening. He now owns a .363/.389/.513 slash line. His K and BB rates are both very low, and he produces a high BABIP, making him a great Beat the Streak candidate.

Francisco Lindor of the Mets went 0 for 4 with three strikeouts to remain in fifth place. The Mets beat the Pirates 2-1 as Pittsburgh’s offense continues to struggle.

May 13, 2025

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Aaron Judge improved his batting average to .414 as he goes two for three with a double and two walks in an 11-5 win over the Mariners. Judge’s OBP stands at just as impressive a level at .500. His game score of 65 was only the third best on the team in the game as Trent Grisham and Anthony Volpe each posted a 73. Judge now holds a 24 point lead in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. The probability of him hitting .400 for the season now stands at about 0.000042 or about 21 in 500,000.

In the same game, Cal Raleigh of the Mariners homered and drove in two runs to sit in fourth place. Raleigh is tied for third in the majors in home runs with Corbin Carroll of the Diamondbacks, one behind Judge and Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies. Carroll hit two solo home runs in a 2-1 win over the Giants,

Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and the Dodgers rested on Monday, Ohtani and Freeman holding second and third place respectively. Francisco Lindor of the Mets rounds out the top five after a two for five night in a 4-3 win over the Pirates. I watched the Mets a bit lately, and their games delivered a lot of excitement.

Gleyber Torres of the Tigers delivered the highest game score of the day, a 78, in a 14-2 win over the Red Sox. I discussed Torres in a post last night.