For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.313, 0.732 — Jacob Wilson batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.306, 0.691 — Dominic Smith batting at German Marquez.
- 0.302, 0.720 — Bo Bichette batting at Zack Littell.
- 0.301, 0.723 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Cade Povich.
- 0.301, 0.701 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Aaron Nola.
- 0.300, 0.691 — Heliot Ramos batting at German Marquez.
- 0.299, 0.688 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at German Marquez.
- 0.295, 0.688 — Sal Frelick batting vs. Aaron Nola.
- 0.294, 0.687 — Lenyn Sosa batting at Zebby Matthews.
- 0.293, 0.698 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Bryce Elder.
Wilson puts the ball in play about 86% of the time, and owns a high BABIP. His BA of .315 this season is very close to his BABIP of .320 due to a low number strikeouts and a few home runs.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.313, 0.732 — Jacob Wilson batting at Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.301, 0.723 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Cade Povich.
- 0.302, 0.720 — Bo Bichette batting at Zack Littell.
- 0.281, 0.715 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Shane Bieber.
- 0.277, 0.704 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Caden Dana.
- 0.288, 0.701 — Xavier Edwards batting at Mitchell Parker.
- 0.301, 0.701 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Aaron Nola.
- 0.293, 0.698 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Bryce Elder.
- 0.269, 0.694 — Trea Turner batting at Jose Quintana.
- 0.306, 0.691 — Dominic Smith batting at German Marquez.
- 0.300, 0.691 — Heliot Ramos batting at German Marquez.
For the second day in a row, both systems put Wilson at the top. Arraez and Bichette tie for the consensus double down choice. Bichette is playing on the road, which might give him an extra plate appearance.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!