Tag Archives: Jason Alexander

September 21, 2025

Games of the Day

The Yankees send Cam Schlittler against the Orioles and Kyle Bradish. Schlittler’s ERA of 3.41 is good despite a .329 OBP allowed. He removed seven base runners with four GDPs, two caught stealings, and a pickoff. Bradish, making his fifth start of the season, walk eight and struck out 30 in 22 innings.

The Reds sit one-game out of the third NL Wild Card slot as they host the Cubs, not quite eliminated from NL Central title. Jameson Taillon takes on Andrew Abbott. Taillon owns a .271 OBP allowed, the best of his career. While he limits hits, 46 of the 102 safeties against him were extra-base hits. Abbott needs 5 2/3 innings to reach the qualifying level for the first time in his career. He held batters to a .286 OBP and just a .374 slugging percentage.

The Astros need a win as they finish their series hosting the Mariners on Sunday Night Baseball, the last ESPN Sunday night broadcast. Logan Gilbert battles Jason Alexander. Gilbert is just 5-6 despite a 3.53 ERA. He averages just 5 1/3 innings per start, making it tough to get decisions. Alexander is 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA as a starter, giving up 13 runs in nine innings as a reliever.

Enjoy!

September 15, 2025

Games of the Day

The Rangers open a series with the Astros as Jack Leiter takes on Jason Alexander, Texas trying to catch Houston or Seattle for the division or a wild card. Leiter greatly improved on his 2024 rookie performance, bringing his ERA down five runs to 3.81. He raised his K rate and lowered his HR rate. Alexander, awesome on the road, owns an opposition .303/.351/.574 slash line at home. That hardly makes him master of his domain.

First place teams clash in Los Angeles as Ranger Suarez leads the Phillies against Emmet Sheehan and the Dodgers. Suarez owns a 2.77 ERA, having allowed just then home runs in 143 innings. Sheehan brought his ERA down over a run and a half compared to his rookie stint in 2024 in about the same number of innings. All three true outcomes are better, helping him to a 3.32 ERA.

Enjoy!

July 12, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

0.342 — Luis Arraez batting against Jason Alexander.
0.316 — Nico Hoerner batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.312 — Luis Gonzalez batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.312 — Tim Anderson batting against Konnor Pilkington.
0.310 — Manny Machado batting against Austin Gomber.
0.303 — Tim Anderson batting against Shane Bieber.
0.298 — Rafael Devers batting against Corey Kluber.
0.298 — Trea Turner batting against Matthew Liberatore.
0.294 — Luis Garcia batting against Chris Flexen.
0.293 — Harold Ramirez batting against Chris Sale.
0.293 — Thairo Estrada batting against Dallas Keuchel.

You can double down with Tim Anderson today as the White Sox play a doubleheader in Cleveland. If you are picking from those games, keep an eye on the starting lineups, as players often sit for one of the games.

Here are the NN picks:

0.342, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting against Jason Alexander.
0.312, 0.742 — Tim Anderson batting against Konnor Pilkington.
0.303, 0.737 — Tim Anderson batting against Shane Bieber.
0.316, 0.724 — Nico Hoerner batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.298, 0.724 — Trea Turner batting against Matthew Liberatore.
0.293, 0.716 — Harold Ramirez batting against Chris Sale.
0.298, 0.712 — Rafael Devers batting against Corey Kluber.
0.310, 0.710 — Manny Machado batting against Austin Gomber.
0.286, 0.706 — Luis Robert batting against Konnor Pilkington.
0.278, 0.700 — Luis Robert batting against Shane Bieber.

Both systems put Arraez at the top of the list against the rookie Alexander, who so far allowed 47 hits in 36 innings. It’s possible he should start throwing the pitch opposite of what he wants to throw.

Hoerner and Anderson against Pilkington are tied for the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!