For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.310, 0.731 — Miguel Andujar batting at Andre Pallante.
- 0.293, 0.709 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Mason Barnett.
- 0.286, 0.721 — Jacob Wilson batting at Lucas Giolito.
- 0.283, 0.673 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.281, 0.711 — Luis Arraez batting at David Peterson.
- 0.278, 0.666 — Heliot Ramos batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.274, 0.677 — Jakob Marsee batting at McCade Brown.
- 0.273, 0.691 — Xavier Edwards batting at McCade Brown.
- 0.273, 0.654 — Christian Koss batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.270, 0.677 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Justin Verlander.
Once again, Andujar probably does not start against the right-hander. Gonzalez, with a low walk rate and a high K rate, simply tries to hit the ball as hard as he can. He is barreling up the ball extremely well this season, leading to a high BABIP and is a good candidate to extend a hit streak despite the Ks.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.310, 0.731 — Miguel Andujar batting at Andre Pallante.
- 0.286, 0.721 — Jacob Wilson batting at Lucas Giolito.
- 0.281, 0.711 — Luis Arraez batting at David Peterson.
- 0.293, 0.709 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Mason Barnett.
- 0.267, 0.692 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Bryce Miller.
- 0.273, 0.691 — Xavier Edwards batting at McCade Brown.
- 0.260, 0.681 — Amed Rosario batting at Taj Bradley.
- 0.263, 0.679 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Jesus Luzardo.
- 0.274, 0.677 — Jakob Marsee batting at McCade Brown.
- 0.270, 0.677 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Justin Verlander.
Andujar and Wilson would be the consensus top picks in Andujar starts. Wilson and Gonzalez would be the double down otherwise. The Reds game starts at 1:15 PM EDT, so we should know early if Andujar is playing.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!