Tag Archives: Yermin Mercedes

July 13, 2022

Best Batter Today

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Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers jumps into third place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Freeman posts a four for five night with a double and a homerun or a game score of 79, tied for the highest on the night. The Cardinals take the game 7-6, however. Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals goes one for five to drop to second place behind the injured Yordan Alvarez of the Astros. Nolan Arenado of the Cardinals goes one for three with a walk, but can’t hold off Freeman. The injured Bryce Harper of the Phillies drops to fifth place as his points continue to erode.

Yermin Mercedes of the Giants also posted a game score of 79. He goes three for four with a double and a home run, the dinger his first of the season, as the Giants pound Arizona 13-0. Mercedes seldom starts in his career, but with a .272/.333/.414 slash line, he fills in well.

May 29, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

The Orioles and White Sox play a double header today after rain washed out their Friday night contest. While the Log5 Method likes the team’s chances against Matt Harvey, it will only be a seven inning game. There are two other double headers today as well, and it’s still raining on the east coast. You’ll need to be very aware of lineups and postponements again.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.363, 0.765 — Tim Anderson batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.337, 0.749 — Trea Turner batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.328, 0.730 — Nick Castellanos batting against Zach Davies.
  • 0.352, 0.724 — Yermin Mercedes batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.342, 0.721 — Nick Madrigal batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.320, 0.720 — Jesse Winker batting against Zach Davies.
  • 0.286, 0.714 — Ketel Marte batting against Adam Wainwright.
  • 0.265, 0.707 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.330, 0.699 — Kris Bryant batting against Luis Castillo.
  • 0.269, 0.697 — Harold Castro batting against Deivi Garcia.
  • 0.311, 0.697 — Jose Abreu batting against Matt Harvey.

The NN is not quite as Matt Harvey crazy. Anderson, Turner, and Mercedes are the consensus 1-2 picks, but all play twin bills today. Maybe it’s a day to choose Bryant and Winker, or just skip it due to uncertainty.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 28, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

While Matt Harvey controlled his walks and home runs this season, his K rate is down and the hits are coming. The White Sox should take advantage of that.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.363, 0.765 — Tim Anderson batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.337, 0.749 — Trea Turner batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.323, 0.733 — Jose Iglesias batting against Sean Manaea.
  • 0.352, 0.724 — Yermin Mercedes batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.342, 0.721 — Nick Madrigal batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.275, 0.714 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Cody Poteet.
  • 0.313, 0.700 — Jared Walsh batting against Sean Manaea.
  • 0.276, 0.700 — Nick Castellanos batting against Adbert Alzolay.
  • 0.276, 0.700 — Jesse Winker batting against Adbert Alzolay.
  • 0.311, 0.697 — Jose Abreu batting against Matt Harvey.
  • 0.262, 0.697 — Ketel Marte batting against Johan Oviedo.

The two systems agree on Anderson as the top pick, with Mercedes and Turner tied for the double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 27, 2021

Beat the Steak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

The Blue Jays play a doubleheader at the Yankees and the Rockies play a doubleheader at the Mets, so be careful picking from those games.

Here are the NN picks:

Mercedes is starting to get enough plate appearances to work his way into the top ten. Frazier is the consensus first pick, Anderson the consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 29, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

The White Sox play a doubleheader today, so you need to discount Tim Anderson a bit since he likely will not get as many plate appearances as usual due to the seven inning rule. Mercedes is starting to work his way into the top ten as his plate appearances grow..

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.294, 0.729 — Tim Anderson batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.271, 0.719 — Tim Anderson batting against Matt Boyd.
  • 0.292, 0.716 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jorge Lopez.
  • 0.295, 0.712 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.293, 0.710 — Michael Brantley batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.282, 0.694 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Jorge Lopez.
  • 0.280, 0.693 — Alex Verdugo batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.284, 0.688 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.281, 0.688 — Justin Turner batting against Eric Lauer.
  • 0.284, 0.683 — David Peralta batting against Antonio Senzatela.

Anderson against Mize is the consensus first pick. If you are only interested in regulation games, Bogaerts would be the consensus first pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 19, 2021

Position Pitching

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The Red Sox beat the White Sox 11-4 Monday, with Tony La Russa taking advantage of a six-run deficit in the bottom of the seventh inning to bring in position players to pitch. It’s one of the rules enacted for the 2020 season:

Position players are allowed to pitch only if a game goes to extra innings, or if their team is winning or losing by more than six runs. During normal circumstances in a nine-inning game, only the team’s 13 designated pitchers — or two-way players — are allowed to pitch.

MLB.com

The Red Sox radio announcers were perturbed by this move. Now, they did not make it clear why they were upset, but as far as I can tell they took as La Russa giving up on the game. Teams can score a lot of runs quickly at Fenway, so I see the point. La Russa explained that he was saving his designated pitchers for Tuesday. Yermin Mercedes and Danny Mendick pitched. I guess that makes Mercedes a convertible.

April 6, 2021

Best Batter Today

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Corey Seager of the Dodgers stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a huge thirteen point lead over Jose Ramirez of the Indians. Seager doubled and walked in the pounding of the Athletics Monday night. Ramirez singled as the Royals shutout Cleveland. Jose Altuve of the Astros sits third after going two for five in a 7-6 loss to the Angels.

Mookie Betts of the Dodgers moves into the top five after reaching base three times in the win against Oakland. Jose Abreu of the White Sox singled in the 6-0 victory over the Mariners and remains in fifth place. Also in that game, Yermin Mercedes continued his hot hitting with a three for four night, including a double. He’s batting .667 on the season, and now ranks 315th out of 496 ranked players.

Best game of the day goes to Nelson Cruz of the Twins, who hit two home runs and a double for a game score of 79.

April 5, 2021

Best Batter Today

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One change occurred in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings based on Sunday’s games. Corey Seager, Jose Ramirez, Jose Altuve, and Jose Abreu remain the top four. Freddie Freeman of the Braves moves back into the top five as he draws two walks in the 2-1 Phillies win. Michael Brantley, who suffered a wrist injury on a hit by pitch Saturday, did not play. Freeman moves into fifth place by a hair.

Cedric Mullins of the Orioles produced a Baseball Musings offensive game score of 84, the best performance on Sunday. Mullins went three for five with three doubles in the 11-3 Baltimore victory over the Red Sox. Mullins is tied with Yermin Mercedes for the league lead in hits with nine.

April 4, 2021

Hitting on All Cylinders

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Yermin Mercedes continued his hot hitting Saturday night, collecting three more hits in his first three plate appearances. That set a record to start the season:

The Chicago White Sox rookie got three hits in his first three at-bats Saturday against the Los Angeles Angels to improve to 8-for-8 to start 2021, the most consecutive hits to start a season by any player in the modern era (since 1900).

ESPN.com

Unfortunately, the article does not mention whose record Mercedes broke.

Mercedes had the best game score on Friday, and second best on Saturday. He’s at the top of the who’s hot list. His hitting was not enough, however, as the Angels beat the White Sox 5-3.

April 3, 2021

Best Batter Today

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Friday brought some movement in the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Corey Seager stayed at the top as he goes three for five with a double in Colorado. The idle Jose Ramirez remains second. Jose Abreu moves up to third as offense rules the night in Anaheim, the White Sox beating the Angels 12-8. Abreu goes two for Four with a walk, scoring twice and driving in four runs. That drops the idle Freddie Freeman to fourth place. Michael Brantley of the Astros hits three doubles against the Athletics in a 9-5 Houston win, knocking Marcell Ozuna out of the top five by half a point.

The best game score of the night goes to Abreu’s teammate Yermin Mercedes. Mercedes collected one plate appearance in 2020, so this was his first start in the majors. He goes five for five with a double and four RBI. At seasonal age 28, he is hardly a prospect, but it’s nice to see someone shine in their debut. It’s a puzzle why he took so long to reach the majors, as he posted very good OBPs at every level of the minors.