Tag Archives: Bobby Witt

October 9, 2025

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge of the Yankees saw his season end Wednesday night, but he remains on top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a thirteen point lead. He went out by posting a two for four with a walk, hitting .500/.581/.692 in his seven game post season. Third place George Springer of the Blue Jays went one for four with a double in the 5-2 Blue Jays win, and he will have a chance to cut down the gap in the ALCS.

Cal Raleigh of the Mariners went one of three with a walk in a 9-3 Tigers win. Raleigh plays Friday in the deciding game five, and maybe goes head-to-head with Springer in the ALCS as the two try to chase down Judge.

Juan Soto of the Mets and Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals round out the top five.

The best game score of the day went to Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies, a 75. He hit two home runs and drew a walk in an 8-2 win over the Dodgers, forcing a game four in Los Angeles Thursday night. Schwarber and the Phillies collected twelve hits and six walks in what was a relatively close game until Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers entered in relief. He allowed five runs, four of them earned in his second inning of pitching to put the game out of reach. The Phillies combination of Aaron Nola short and Ranger Suarez long at the start of the game worked well, as they combined to allow one run and one walk while striking out seven in seven innings. The Phillies bullpen should be fresh for Thursday’s contest.

October 8, 2025

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge of the Yankees posted the highest game score of the day, a 78, as he remained atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He went three for four with an intentional walk, double, and home run to lead the Yankees to a 9-6 comeback win over the Blue Jays. Toronto leads the best of five series 2-1. In the same game, George Springer of the Blue Jays went 0 for 5 with three strikeouts and ranks third.

Cal Raleigh of the Mariners sits in second place after a 2 for 4 with a walk and a home run in a 8-4 win over the Tigers. His teammate, Julio Rodriguez, went 0 for 5 and drops to seventh place. Juan Soto of the Mets and Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals round out the top five.

September 28, 2025

Best Batter, End of Regular Season

Aaron Judge of the Yankees winds up at the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings at the end of the regular season. Judge went one for four in a 3-2 win over the Orioles with a .331/.457/.688 slash line. Each of those led the American League, a triple crown of sorts.

George Springer of the Blue Jays tied for the second highest game score of the day, a 75. That was enough to propel him into second place. He went three for four with a walk and a home run, his 32nd of the season in a 13-4 win over the Rays, the Blue Jays clinching the AL East title. Springer’s teammate, Alejandro Kirk, posted the highest game score of the day, an 82. He went three for five with a double and two home runs, including a grand slam, driving in six runs.

Cal Raleigh of the Mariners dropped to third place with a one for three with a walk in a 6-1 Dodgers win. Juan Soto of the Mets ranks fourth after drawing a walk in a 4-0 Marlins win, eliminating New York from the playoff picture. Soto finishes with a .263/.396/.525 slash line for the season.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals ranks fifth after a one for five with a double, his 47 two baggers leading the majors.

The playoffs count for the rankings. Soto and Witt will see their scores start to decay as the others continue to play.

September 28, 2025

Best Batter Today

Saturday’s games brought no change to the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Aaron Judge of the Yankees remained in first place after going two for four with a home run in a 6-1 win over the Orioles. Cal Raleigh of the Mariners went 0 for 4 with three strikeouts in a 5-3 Dodgers win to remain second. He needs a three homer day on Sunday to break Judge’s AL single season home run record of 62.

Juan Soto of the Mets ranks third after drawing two walks in a 5-0 win over the Marlins. George Springer of the Blue Jays posted a one for three with a walk in a 5-1 win over the Rays, and Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals went two for five in a 4-2 win over the Athletics to rank fifth.

Michael Busch of the Cubs missed the cycle by a single as he went four for four with a walk, double, triple, and two home runs for a game score of 96, the highest on the day. That was the 25th game score of at least 90 this season, and the second time Busch posted a 96! On July 4th, Busch went four for four with three home runs and five RBI for his other top score.

September 27, 2025

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge of the Yankees stayed atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a homer and a walk in an 8-4 win over the Orioles, keeping the Yankees even with the Blue Jays in the AL East, Toronto holding the tie breaker. There’s a very nice grouping of active players right now on the career home run list. Manny Machado owns the 86th slot with 368 dingers, Judge right behind at 367, Freddie Freeman is tied with Lance Berkman at 366, and Bryce Harper ranks 90th at 363. Note that Machado and Harper are a year younger by seasonal age by Judge, but played four more seasons.

Cal Raleigh went two for five in 3-2 Dodgers win to remain in second place. He has about a 1 in 100 chance of hitting three more home runs at this point. Juan Soto of the Mets posted a two for four in a 6-2 Marlins win for third place. The Mets are now on the outside edge of the NL Wild Card race, the Reds on the inside due to holding the tie breaker. With the Diamondbacks losing, the Reds or the Mets will be the third NL Wild Card team.

George Springer of the Blue Jays posted a two for three with a walk in a 4-2 win over the Rays. His hits included a double. Bobby Witt Jr of the Royals went one for four in a 4-3 Athletics win for fifth place.

The highest game score of the day belonged to Spencer Horwitz of the Pirates, an 89. With a perfect night at the plate, he went three for three with two walks and two home runs. Horwitz does an excellent job as the left side of a platoon. In his career he hits .282/.367/.465 against righties, .192/.285/.258 against lefties.

September 26, 2025

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge of the Yankeesreturned to the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a two for three with a double and two walks in a 5-3 win over the White Sox. The Yankees keep place with the Blue Jays, and with the Red Sox losing, either New York or Toronto will be the top wild card seed and get to host the first round.

Cal Raleigh of the Mainers ranks second after an 0 for 4 night with a walk in a 6-2 win over the Rockies. It seems appropriate in what is likely to be a close MVP vote, that these two should be 1-2.

Juan Soto of the Mets dropped to third place after an 0 for 5 in an 8-5 win over the Cubs, the Mets maintaining their one-game lead for the final NL Wild Card slot. Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino of the Royals rank four and five respectively. Witt went four for five with two doubles, bringing his season total to 46. Pasquantino posted a one for four with a home run and a walk in the 9-4 win over the Angels.

Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers posted the best game score of the day, a 78. He went two for three with a walk and two home runs in an 8-0 win over the Diamondbacks, putting Arizona two games back in the NL Wild Card race. Freeman’s career BA is now at .300.

September 24, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.317, 0.705 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.312, 0.692 — Dominic Canzone batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.309, 0.698 — Julio Rodriguez batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.300, 0.691 — Victor Robles batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.288, 0.708 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Yusei Kikuchi.
0.286, 0.658 — Jorge Polanco batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.284, 0.683 — Daylen Lile batting at Bryce Elder.
0.283, 0.713 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Chad Patrick.
0.282, 0.700 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Max Scherzer.
0.281, 0.695 — Jeremy Pena batting at Luis Severino.

It looks like a good night for the Mariners against the Rockies as Seattle can clinch the AL West title with a victory or an Astros loss. Naylor is a rare low strikeout slugger, so I’m not surprised to see him at the top of the list.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.283, 0.713 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Chad Patrick.
0.256, 0.709 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Hunter Brown.
0.288, 0.708 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Yusei Kikuchi.
0.317, 0.705 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.282, 0.700 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Max Scherzer.
0.309, 0.698 — Julio Rodriguez batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.281, 0.695 — Jeremy Pena batting at Luis Severino.
0.246, 0.694 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Paul Skenes.
0.275, 0.693 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Jonah Tong.
0.312, 0.692 — Dominic Canzone batting vs. Tanner Gordon.

Naylor and Arraez both own decent hit streaks at the moment. Naylor is the consensus top pick, with Witt the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 24, 2025

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Mets remained atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a single and a walk in a 9-7 win over the Cubs. The Mets were down 6-1 early, but stormed back to grab the third wild card slot as the Pirates beat the Reds 4-2. In that game, Elly De La Cruz of the Reds posted a three for three with a walk and a home runs for a game score of 77, the highest on the day. After posting a low OBP of .300 in his rookie season, De La Cruz improved to .339 in 2024 and .340 this season. His ability to get on base makes his speed much more effective.

Vinnie Pasquantino of the Royals sits in second place after a one for five with a double in an 8-4 win over the Angles. The Royals did fall out of playoff contention, however. His teammate, Bobby Witt Jr. takes fourth place with a two for five, including a double, his 44th of the season. That leads the majors, and he needs one more to match his career high set last season.

Third place belongs to George Springer of the Blue Jays, one for five in a 4-1 Red Sox win. Boston keeps it’s hope alive for an AL East title. With the Yankees using a ninth inning rally to beat the White Sox 3-2, four games separate the top three teams in the AL East with five to play. Cal Raleigh of the Mariners holds fifth place after getting hit by a pitch in a 4-3 win over the Rockies, the Mariners clinching a playoff slot. Half the AL playoff slots have been claimed.

September 13, 2025

Best Batter Today

Friday’s games brought no change to the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Juan Soto of the Mets remains in first place after a hitting a sacrifice fly in four plate appearances in an 8-3 Rangers win. Texas remained two games back in the division and wild card race. The Mets lead for the third wild card slot is down to 0.5 games. The recuperating Corey Seager of the Rangers did not play and ranks fourth.

Brice Turang of the Brewers held second place with a one for five in an 8-2 win over the Cardinals. The Brewers hold three of the top seven slots and four of the top thirteen. Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners ranks third as he posted a one for three with a walk in a 2-1 win over the Angels.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals rounds out the top five after a one for three with a hit by pitch in an 8-2 Phillies win. Note that both the Rangers and Phillies are doing just fine with their good offensive shortstops injured.

Kody Clemens of the Twins posted the game of his career Friday as he recorded a game score of 98. That’s the sixth highest game score of the season, and the 23rd instance of game score of at least 90 this year. The most in a season was 29 in 1999. Clemens went four for four with three home runs and a double in a 9-8 win over the Diamondbacks. His final blow helped Minnesota score three runs in the ninth inning for the walk-off win.

Clemens, in his career, owned a single strength, producing power. This season, 33 of his meager 64 hits went for extra bases. For his career 68 of his 138 hits went for extra bases. With a .262 career OBP, his power comes at a high cost in outs. Power delivers runs, however, and it’s kept him in the majors.

September 12, 2025

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Mets remained on top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a one for four in a 6-4 Phillies win, the Phillies sweeping the series from the Mets. Philadelphia holds an eleven game lead with 15 games to play. The Mets are still the third wild card, but now both Cincinnati and San Francisco trail New York by 1 1/2 games, both just one game back in the AFILC.

Brice Turang of the Brewers held second place as the team enjoyed a travel day, and the injured Corey Seager and his Rangers did not play, Seager in third place.

Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners drops to fourth place after a two for five with a double and a walk in a 7-6, twelve inning win over the Angels. The Mariners move into a first place tie with the Astros in the AL West. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals ranks fifth after an 0 for 4 in a 3-2 Guardians win, Cleveland taking three of four in the series. They stand 3 1/2 games behind the Astros and Mariners for the last wild card slot.

The best game score of the day goes to Aaron Judge of the Yankees, an 81. He posted a three for four with a hit by pitch and two home runs in a 9-3 win over the Tigers. That moves Judge up to 14th on the list. He led by a wide margin early in the season. Since 6/10 he hit .252/.397/.572, a great run for any hitter, but not enough to keep him in the top five.

September 11, 2025

Best Batter Today

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals returned to the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with two for four in a 4-3 win over the Guardians. That put him in third place. Juan Soto of the Mets tied for the fourth highest game score of the day, a 71, with a three for five, including a double and a home run in an 11-3 Phillies win. Both New York teams allowed 11 runs to a first place club last night, and right now neither is looking like world beaters.

Brice Turang of the Brewers remained in second place after a two for five with a home run, but Texas took the game 6-3. Corey Seager of the Rangers remains out of action but still ranks fifth. Texas is 2 1/2 games out of the division lead and 1 1/2 behind the Mariners for the third wild card slot. Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners ranks fourth. He posted a two for six with a double in a 4-2 win over the Cardinals.

Mookie Betts of the Dodgers posted the highest game score of the day, an 82. Betts went four for five with a double and a home run in a 9-0 win over the Padres, the Dodgers now up three games in the NL West. At seasonal age 32, Betts is having easily the worst season of his career in terms of averages. His BA is down about 30 points below his career average, his OBP down about 40 points, and his slugging percentage down over 100 points. Over the last month or so, Betts hit more like a superstar, with a .352/.408/.578 slash line. The Dodger hope that carries over into the post season.

September 9, 2025

Best Batter Today

The top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings remained the same after games of Monday. Juan Soto of the Mets leads the pack after drawing a walk in a 1-0 Phillies win. Brice Turang of the Brewers posted an 0 for 4 in a 5-0 Texas win. Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners went two for four to gain on both those leaders, now just seven points out of first place. The Mariners beat the Cardinals 4-2. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals and Corey Seager of the Rangers did not start due to injury.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Josh Bell of the Nationals, an 86. Bell went four for six with two home runs in a 15-7 win over the Marlins. Bell is slugging just .403 on the season, as drawing walks has been his strength this year.

September 8, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.308, 0.721 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Slade Cecconi.
0.290, 0.698 — Nico Hoerner batting at Bryce Elder.
0.289, 0.685 — Julio Rodriguez batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
0.289, 0.684 — Maikel Garcia batting at Slade Cecconi.
0.288, 0.681 — Josh Naylor batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
0.283, 0.682 — Victor Robles batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
0.283, 0.676 — Daylen Lile batting at Janson Junk.
0.282, 0.692 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Cade Cavalli.
0.282, 0.684 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Janson Junk.
0.281, 0.662 — Dominic Canzone batting vs. Miles Mikolas.

Witt sat Sunday to give his back a chance to heal. It’s an important game for the Royals as they play the Guardians, both teams fighting for the third wild card slot in the AL.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.308, 0.721 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Slade Cecconi.
0.274, 0.712 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Garrett Crochet.
0.273, 0.709 — Miguel Andujar batting at Yu Darvish.
0.263, 0.699 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Nick Lodolo.
0.290, 0.698 — Nico Hoerner batting at Bryce Elder.
0.282, 0.692 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Cade Cavalli.
0.280, 0.689 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Tyler Dollander.
0.246, 0.688 — Trea Turner batting vs. Nolan McLean.
0.289, 0.685 — Julio Rodriguez batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
0.282, 0.684 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Janson Junk.
0.289, 0.684 — Maikel Garcia batting at Slade Cecconi.

Trea Turner injured his hamstring on Sunday. He will get an MRI, so I expect he will not play today. Witt is the top pick if he plays, with Hoerner the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 8, 2025

Best Batter Today

Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners follows up his high game score of the day with two doubles and three RBI in four trips to the plate, part of the Mariners blowing out the Braves 18-2. That moves Rodriguez into third place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. The Mariners hold on to a 1 1/2 game lead for the third slot in the AL Wild Card race and stand just 2 1/2 games out in the AL West.

Juan Soto of the Mets remained in first place as he homered in four trips to the plate in a 3-2 Reds win. Brice Turang of the Brewers held second place after reaching base four times with two singles and two walks in a 10-2 win over the Pirates. Turang now owns a .361 OBP.

Fourth place belongs to George Springer of the Blue Jays, one for four with a double in a 4-3 Yankees win. New York is two games out of first place in the AL East, but Toronto won the season series, so a tie gives the division to Toronto. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals ranks fifth, as he sat out a 5-1 Twins win.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers, an 85. He recorded a perfect day at the plate, two for two with three walks and two home runs. That brings his home run total for the season to 48. It looks like he’ll repeat a 50 home run season. He currently ranks 19th.

September 7, 2025

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Mets posted a two for for with a walk in a 6-3 Reds win to extend his lead atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Second place Brice Turang of the Brewers went one for four in a 4-1 win over the Pirates.

George Springer of the Blue Jays cooled off a little bit, drawing a walk in a 3-1 Yankees win, the series even at 1-1. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals sat out the 11-2 win over the Twins with back spams, but an MRI was negative for a serious injury. Corey Seager of the Rangers continues to heal from his appendectomy, the Rangers falling 11-0 to the Astros.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners, an 81. Rodriguez went three for five with two home runs in a 10-2 win over the Braves, a much needed win for the team. He now ranks seventh on the list. His overall slash line of .265/.317/.475 isn’t that impressive, but since August 3rd he’s hit .322/.359/.653.

September 6, 2025

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Mets stayed atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a two for four game, including a walk and a double. The Mets beat the Reds 5-4. Soto’s drop in power this season comes from his lack of doubles and triples. In 2024, he collected 35 short extra-base hits to go with his 41 home runs. So far this season he collected just 18 SEXBH.

Brice Turang of the Brewers ranks second after a two for five in a 5-2 win over the Pirates. George Springer of the Blue Jays sits in third place after getting hit by a pitch in the 7-1 win over the Yankees, Toronto opening a larger gap in the AL East as the Red Sox also lost. The core of the offense, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. produced big games for the win.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals sits in fourth place as he went 0 for 3 in a 2-1 win over the Twins. He left the game early with back spasms. The Royals are now one game out of the third wild card slot in the AL, also 1/2 game behind Texas. Five teams are within 2 1/2 games of that final playoff spot. I still hope for a massive tie, even though it would not create a playoff bottleneck.

Corey Seager of the Rangers returned to the dugout yesterday as he continues to recover from an appendectomy. According to the broadcast, he’s trying to come back as quickly as possible. The Rangers beat the Astros 4-3 without him.

Hunter Goodman of the Rockies posted the best game score of the day, a 79. He went three for three with a walk, double, and home run in a 3-0 win over the Padres. He is slugging .538 on the season. The slugging is real. While the road hurts his ability to get on base, he generates even more power away from Coors.

Note that the highest game score of the day for pitchers also occurred in that game, as Kyle Freeland of the Rockies threw eight shutout innings with ten strikeouts and no walks for an 88.

September 5, 2025

Best Batter Today

Bobby Witt Jr. represented the only member of the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings who started on Thursday. Witt ranks fourth after a homer and a walk in a 4-3 win over the Angels. The Rays, who also won, are tied with the Royals two games back of the Mariners for the third wild car slot.

One, two, three, and five go to Juan Soto of the Mets, George Springer of the Blue Jays, Brice Turang of the Brewers, and Corey Seager of the Rangers. Twelve points separate those five.

The best game score of the day belonged to Yordan Alvarez of the Astros, a 79. He went four for five with a double and a home run in an 8-4 Yankees win. Alvarez hit in his last five games, four of them multiple hit games. While the Astros took first place in the AL West without him, having his big bat back makes Houston a tougher playoff team.

September 4, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.300, 0.718 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
0.286, 0.696 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Logan Allen.
0.285, 0.701 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Logan Allen.
0.284, 0.693 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Logan Allen.
0.281, 0.679 — Maikel Garcia batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
0.271, 0.683 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
0.267, 0.673 — Sal Frelick batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
0.262, 0.664 — Junior Caminero batting vs. Logan Allen.
0.260, 0.646 — Adam Frazier batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
0.259, 0.659 — Brice Turang batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
0.259, 0.651 — Vinnie Pasquantino batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.

There are only six games on tap today, none late. It looks like the pitching matchups favor the Royals and the Rays. Witt comes out way on top, and he is a good pick most days.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.300, 0.718 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
0.285, 0.701 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Logan Allen.
0.286, 0.696 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Logan Allen.
0.284, 0.693 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Logan Allen.
0.271, 0.683 — Jackson Chourio batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
0.281, 0.679 — Maikel Garcia batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
0.267, 0.673 — Sal Frelick batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
0.224, 0.667 — Trea Turner batting at Freddy Peralta.
0.262, 0.664 — Junior Caminero batting vs. Logan Allen.
0.259, 0.659 — Brice Turang batting vs. Ranger Suarez.

On a very low probability day, Witt is the top choice by a wide margin. Rays Diaz and Mangum tie for the double down choice. Neither batter strikes out at high rate, and Mangum walks very little.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 4, 2025

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Mets remained on top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after a one for four with a walk in a 6-2 Tigers victory. George Springer of the Blue Jays gained some ground in second place with a two for four game, including a walk and a home run in a 13-9 slugfest win over the Reds. The Blue Jays scored in every inning from the third to the ninth. A little over two points separate these batters.

Brice Turang of the Brewers sits less than a point behind Springer in third place. He posted a two for three with a walk, double, and triple in a 6-3 win over the Phillies. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals reached base by a hit by pitch in a 4-3 Angels win to rank fourth. Corey Seager of the Rangers is still out after an appendectomy, and the Diamondback beat the team 2-0 Seager sits fifth.

The best game score of the day belonged to Matt Chapman of the Giants, an 86. He went three for four with a walk, double, and two home runs in a 10-8 win in Colorado. Chapman, with a .345 OBP is having one of his best seasons at getting on base, but his BA and Slugging percentage are both below his career averages.

September 3, 2025

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Mets stayed on top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a two for four with a walk and his 37th home run, the Mets topping the Tigers 12-5. That’s two games in a row where the Mets score in double digits against Detroit, and the fifth time in their last 12 games that the Mets scored at least ten runs.

George Springer of the Blue Jays launched two home runs as he went three for four with a walk to claim second place in a 12-9 win over the Reds. Springer’s game score of 82 was the second highest on the evening, and the game produced the second of three twelve run totals on the night. The third saw the White Sox beat the Twins 12-3, Andrew Benintendi of Chicago going four for five with two home runs and five RBI for a game score of 87, the highest on the day.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals ranks third after collecting a triple and a walk in a 5-1 Angels win. Witt now totals 33 triples for his career, averaging just over eight a season.

Brice Turang of the Brewers takes fourth place. The Brewers needed a day off, and the Phillies wanted to play on Labor Day, so there was an unusual break in the middle of the series. Four Brewers batters now rank in the top ten.

The recovering Corey Seager of the Rangers ranks fifth and did not play. Rafael Devers of the Giants ranks sixth and caused some controversy in Colorado when he spent too much time admiring a home run. Here is Freeland on the grandstanding:

“I found it extremely disrespectful to show me up like that in the first inning — after hitting the home run, standing there watching it, taking your sweet time getting down to first base. I’ve been in this league for quite some time. I know he has as well. I just find that extremely disrespectful and felt that I needed to let him know about that.

“Given the circumstances, it’s the first inning and you want to try and play a cool head. At the same time, being disrespected like that, I felt there was a need to say something and let him know, ‘You disrespected me. You showed me up and I don’t respect you doing that, coming into my ballpark and doing that.’”
MLB.com

This will always be the problem with allowing celebrations. Professional athletes are hyper competitive; it’s what allows them to become professional athletes. Part of that is loathing losing. So etiquette develops* (called sportsmanship) to prevent these men from killing each other. In recent years that etiquette became looser, but there is still a limit, and Devers seemed to pass it last night.

*Something similar happens in some large cities. People adopt extreme politeness, otherwise all the jostling and bumping would result in two much verbal abuse and violence.

September 2, 2025

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto generated the second highest game score of the day on Monday, moving him to the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He went two for three with two walks, a triple and a grand slam in a 10-8 win over the Tigers for a score of 80. While his .257/.397/.518 slash line for the season might be below expectations, he hit a more Soto like .288/.449/.625 since the start of August.

Brice Turang of the Brewers sits in second place after a two for three with two walks and a home run in a 10-8 Philadelphia win. Rafael Devers of the Giants posted a two for four with a walk and a double in an 8-2 win over the Rockies. He ranks fourth.

Third place Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals and fifth place Corey Seager of the Rangers did not play. The Royals sat idle, while Seager recovers from an appendectomy. The Rangers beat the Diamondbacks 7-5.

The highest game score of the day belonged to Bo Bichette of the Blue Jays, an 83. Bichette recorded a perfect day at the plate, four for four with two doubles and a home run in a 5-4 Reds win. Bichette moves up to twelfth in the rankings. This was his third four-hit game in his last 32 contests. During that time he is batting .382/.434/.550.

September 1, 2025

Best Batter Labor Day

Happy Labor Day!

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings despite an 0 for 4 in a 5-0 Tigers win, the Royals dominated by Tarik Skubal for seven innings. Corey Seager of the Rangers ranks second, still idled by appendix surgery. Juan Soto of the Mets sits in third place after a one for four in a 5-1 Marlins win.

Rafael Devers of the Giants moved into fourth place with a big game in a 13-2 win over the Orioles. He went three for five with a double and a home run. He’s batting .299/.386/.610 in his last 21 games.

Fifth place belongs to Christian Yelich of the Brewers, one for five in an 8-4 Blue Jays win. The Brewers still have four batters in the top twelve.

The best game score of the day belonged to Jarren Duran of the Red Sox, a 78. He went two for two with two walks, a double, and a home run in a 5-2 win over the Pirates. Duran possesses speed power; only 14 of his 61 extra-base hits are home runs, and his homer on Sunday stayed on the field of play. He owns 12 triples, his second year in a row in double digits. For his career he hit 33 triples and 48 home runs.

August 31, 2025

Best Batter Today

Juan Soto of the Mets uses a very Juan Soto day to jump to second in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto recorded a two for two day with three walks and two home runs for a game score of 86, the highest on the day. Despite out-homering the Marlins 4-0, Miami prevails 11-8 as they go 8 for 17 with runners in scoring position as compared to 2 for 12 for the Mets. Soto is now hitting .254/.395/.508 on the season and .278/.441/.588 in August.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals stayed on top with a single and a home run in four PA, the homer the difference in a 3-1 win over the Tigers. The Royals move to two games out of the third wild card slot as the Mariners lost to the Guardians.

The injured (surgery) Corey Seager of the Rangers drops to third place, but his teammate, Wyatt Langford, moves up to fifth place with a single and a home run in a 9-3 win over the Athletics. Langford, in his second season, kept his BA in the .250s, but upped his OBP 20 points and his slugging percentage 30 points. He’s drawn 20 walks in August.

Christian Yelich of the Brewers rounds out the top five in fourth place. He went two for four with a double and a home run in a 4-1 win over the Blue Jays. The jays lead in the AL East is down to two games over the Yankees, while the Brewers lead the Cubs by 6 1/2 games.

August 30, 2025

Best Batter Today

For the first day in a while the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings remained the same. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals held the number one slot with a single and a walk in a 5-3 Tigers win. Corey Seager of the Rangers, recovering from surgery, did not play in a 5-2 win over the Athletics.

Brice Turang and Christian Yelich of the Brewers rank third and fifth respectively. Turang collected two singles and a walk, Yelich a single and a walk in a 7-2 win over the Blue Jays. George Springer of the Jays drew a walk and was hit by a pitch to hold fourth place.

Dansby Swanson of the Cubs posted the highest game score of the day, an 85. He went three for five with a triple and two home runs in an 11-7 win over the Rockies in Colorado. Swanson’s OBP dropped this season, his good night bringing it up to just .300. He has made that up by hitting for a bit more power than usual. Since moving to the Cubs he produced eight of his 21 career triples.

August 29, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.324, 0.723 — Nico Hoerner batting at German Marquez.
0.319, 0.735 — Luis Arraez batting at Zebby Matthews.
0.310, 0.721 — Trea Turner batting vs. Bryce Elder.
0.305, 0.723 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Chris Paddack.
0.304, 0.723 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
0.301, 0.696 — Ramon Laureano batting at Zebby Matthews.
0.300, 0.699 — Manny Machado batting at Zebby Matthews.
0.297, 0.702 — Alec Bohm batting vs. Bryce Elder.
0.291, 0.695 — Chandler Simpson batting at Mitchell Parker.
0.289, 0.674 — Pete Crow-Armstrong batting at German Marquez.

Hoerner is a good Beat the Streak candidate as he puts the ball in play. He neither walks nor strikes out much. His BABIP is an okay .305, which is why he tends not to rank this high usually. Playing at Coors Field tonight should help.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.319, 0.735 — Luis Arraez batting at Zebby Matthews.
0.324, 0.723 — Nico Hoerner batting at German Marquez.
0.305, 0.723 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Chris Paddack.
0.304, 0.723 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
0.310, 0.721 — Trea Turner batting vs. Bryce Elder.
0.297, 0.702 — Alec Bohm batting vs. Bryce Elder.
0.300, 0.699 — Manny Machado batting at Zebby Matthews.
0.288, 0.699 — Yandy Diaz batting at Mitchell Parker.
0.301, 0.696 — Ramon Laureano batting at Zebby Matthews.
0.291, 0.695 — Chandler Simpson batting at Mitchell Parker.

It’s a very similar list. Arraez returns to his old stomping grounds in Minnesota where he posted a .325/.384/.439 slash line. He struck out just 60 times in 761 PA.

Witt owns a sixteen-game hit streak.

Arraez and Hoerner tie for the consensus top picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 29, 2025

Best Batter Today

3 Replies

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals stayed atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings as the Royals did not play on Thursday. Corey Seager of the Rangers, in second place, is now out after an appendectomy. The Rangers were not scheduled, either.

The Brewers did play, and find Brice Turang and Christian Yelich ranking third and fifth respectively. Turang went two for four with a triple in a 6-4 Diamondbacks win. Yelich did not start the game.

George Springer of the Blue Jays ranks fourth as the Blue Jays were also idle.

The best game score of the day belonged to Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies, who tied an MLB record with four home runs in a 19-4 win over the Braves. Schwarber went four for six with nine RBI for a game score of 103, the fourth game score of 100 or better this season.

August 28, 2025

Best Batter Today

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals leads Corey Seager of the Rangers by 0.7 points in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, both teams winning blowout games on Wednesday. Witt went two for four with two RBI in a 12-1 win over the White Sox for first place. Seager slugged a home run as part of a two for two with a walk in a 20-3 win over the Angels. Both slugging shortstops left the game early for some rest.

Don’t count Witt out of the MVP race in the AL, especially if a surging Royals make the playoffs. He is not that far behind Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh in fWAR.

George Springer of the Blue Jays sits in third place after a two for four with a walk in a 9-8 comeback win over the Twins. HIs walk in the eighth inning helped set up the winning rally.

Christian Yelich and William Contreras of the Brewers rank fourth and fifth respectively after a 3-2 Diamondbacks win. Yelich doubled in four trips to the plate, and Contreras homered.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Rafael Devers of the Giants, a 94. That gives the 2025 season 21 games score of at least 90. Devers posted a four for four with a walk, a double, and two home runs in the 12-3 win over the Cubs. Despite this game, Devers Giants tenure looks like a disappointment. Compare to his time in Boston this season, his walks are down, his strikeouts are up, and his .226/.335/.407 slash line pales in comparison to his .272/.401/.504 line with the Red Sox. Maybe yesterday was the day Devers turned things around.

August 27, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.312, 0.729 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Casey Mize.
0.295, 0.701 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Tyler Dollander.
0.293, 0.699 — Chandler Simpson batting at Slade Cecconi.
0.286, 0.697 — Yandy Diaz batting at Slade Cecconi.
0.284, 0.684 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Dietrich Enns.
0.283, 0.686 — Nick Kurtz batting vs. Casey Mize.
0.283, 0.684 — Jake Mangum batting at Slade Cecconi.
0.282, 0.684 — Carlos Correa batting vs. Tyler Dollander.
0.282, 0.704 — Miguel Andujar batting at Shohei Ohtani.
0.282, 0.679 — Alex Bregman batting at Dietrich Enns.
0.282, 0.691 — Ronald Acuna Jr. batting at Ryan Gusto.

Wilson collected six hits in 20 at bats since returning from his injury with one walk and no strikeouts.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.312, 0.729 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Casey Mize.
0.281, 0.704 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Aaron Civale.
0.282, 0.704 — Miguel Andujar batting at Shohei Ohtani.
0.280, 0.703 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Simeon Woods Richardson.
0.295, 0.701 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Tyler Dollander.
0.277, 0.699 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Joey Wentz.
0.293, 0.699 — Chandler Simpson batting at Slade Cecconi.
0.286, 0.697 — Yandy Diaz batting at Slade Cecconi.
0.282, 0.691 — Ronald Acuna Jr. batting at Ryan Gusto.
0.279, 0.688 — Yainer Diaz batting vs. Tyler Dollander.

The two systems agree on Wilson as the top pick, with Pena the consensus double down choice. Witt is six for 23 against Civale with a walk and four strikeouts in their careers.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 27, 2025

Best Batter Today

The top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings remains extremely close with three points separating Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals in first from William Contreras of the Brewers in fifth. George Springer of the Blue Jays sprung into third place with the best game score of the day, an 83. He went four for five with two home runs in a 7-5 comeback win by the Twins. Springer’s .388 OBP would be the best single season makr of his career.

Witt went one for five in a 5-4 comeback win for the Royals, all five runs coming in the eighth and ninth inning after Martin Perez of the White Sox pitched one-hit ball for seven innings.

Contreras posted a big night, three for five with a double and a home run in a 9-8 win over the Diamondbacks. Milwaukee blew a 6-0 lead, but Contreras’ single in the ninth, along with a walk by Christian Yelich, helped set up the game winning sacrifice fly in th ninth. Yelich sits in second place after a two for four to go along with the walk. Their teammate, Brice Turang now holds fourth place after a home run and a walk in the game. The top of the Brewers batting order is on fire.

August 26, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

0.353, 0.735 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.340, 0.721 — Carlos Correa batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.338, 0.725 — Jose Altuve batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.336, 0.724 — Yainer Diaz batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.321, 0.703 — Mauricio Dubon batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.319, 0.695 — Victor Caratini batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.307, 0.680 — Ramon Urias batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.306, 0.678 — Jesus Sanchez batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.298, 0.709 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Bailey Ober.
0.296, 0.663 — Cameron Smith batting vs. Tanner Gordon.

The Rockies starters allow so many hits entire lineups project to high hit averages. The top three here are the default top three in the Astros order.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

0.353, 0.735 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.338, 0.725 — Jose Altuve batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.336, 0.724 — Yainer Diaz batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.340, 0.721 — Carlos Correa batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.295, 0.719 — Miguel Andujar batting at Clayton Kershaw.
0.287, 0.713 — Luis Arraez batting at Luis Castillo.
0.286, 0.712 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Charlie Morton.
0.298, 0.709 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Bailey Ober.
0.321, 0.703 — Mauricio Dubon batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
0.266, 0.701 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Martin Perez.

Witt, Bichette, and Correa own three of the top four current hit streaks. Pena and Altuve rate as the consensus double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!