Joakim Soria opted for reconstructive surgery on his elbow and will miss the 2012 season. The Royals need to pick a new closer, but how much does this role really matter? I wanted to look at team saves a bit differently.

A team holding a lead after seven innings sits ripe for a save. The following table shows the results of the thirty franchises over the last ten seasons when holding a lead after seven innings (late lead). The program calculated the percent of those games saved, and the percent of those games won.

There are three teams that appear to indicate a disconnect between recording saves in these games and winning these games. The top team in converting late inning leads to wins is the Angels. They stand as one of the most successful franchises of the decade, winning the World Series in 2002, partly by introducing their closer for most of the decade, Francisco Rodriguez. Their .904 winning percentage when leading after seven innings ranks second in the majors.

The team that ranks first at .917 is the Yankees. New York made the playoffs nine out of ten seasons in that decade, winning the series in 2009. Mariano Rivera closes for them, and is regarded as the greatest closer in the history of the game. Even at an advanced age, he still consistently fools hitters. The Yankees, however, converted 41.88% of their late leads to wins saves, just a bit above league average.

The Red Sox finished third in the majors in terms of winning percentage with late leads, .903. The were at the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of converting those leads to saves, however. Their 38.75% ranked third lowest in the majors. Boston used Jonathan Papelbon as their close for six of those seasons, with Keith Foulke and Ugueth Urbina contributing as well. The Red Sox quite possibly had the best decade of any of these clubs, winning two World Series along the way.

These three great teams, each sporting great closers, each with a proven ability to convert late leads into wins, own completely different profiles when it comes to saves in those games. Getting a late lead, in general, is much more a factor in winning than holding a late lead.

The Royals, however, do neither well. The led only 702 games after seven innings, the third lowest number in the majors. They posted a winning percentage of just .805 in those games, the worst mark in the majors. Note that 40.46% of those games produced saves. While below average, that’s not terrible. They rank 19th, not that far behind the Yankees. I suspect the closer was not the problem for the Royals in that time, but the pitchers who served in the setup role. A list of pitchers who toiled extensively for the Royals bullpen in that time, you see a number of high ERAs.

A great closer can only do so much to help a team win. Getting him the lead, either by the offense scoring tons of runs (Yankees, Red Sox) or by having a stellar setup crew (Angels), matters just as much. The Royals have closer options, but the loss of Soria hurts their depth. That could lead to blown leads before the ninth, and less work for the new closer.

Update: Fixed typos.

It appears Joakim Soria needs another Tommy John surgery:

General manager Dayton Moore acknowledged Soria might require reconstructive elbow surgery, commonly known as Tommy John surgery. Soria underwent that procedure in 2003 to replace the same ligament.

The need for another Tommy John procedure will likely be determined Tuesday when Soria undergoes a follow-up examination by Dr. Lewis Yocum, an elbow specialist, in Los Angeles.

“We’ll see what that reveals,” Moore said, “but maybe so. It’s unfortunate. Joakim is such a professional person, and he’s obviously hurting right now. Let’s hope for the best. If it needs reconstruction, let’s hope for a good outcome.”

Even if he doesn’t need surgery, it sounds like Soria will be out for a while. Now they need to audition a new closer. They seem to have enough candidates that this injury shouldn’t change the season too much for the Royals.

Joakim Soria‘s sore elbow has the pitcher worried:

“Oh, yeah, I’m worried,” he admitted. “Since I’ve had my Tommy John surgery (in 2003), I’ve never had anything like that. I don’t feel it’s that bad because before the Tommy John surgery, all of my strength went away. This time, it hasn’t.

“So I don’t feel like it’s that.”

If the injury turns out to be serious, the article suggests that Greg Holland or Jonathan Broxton might take over the closer role. However, the Royals gave a cup of coffee to Kelvin Herrera last season, and the 22-year-old owns a high K, low BB rate in the minors and might do well in the role.

Hat tip, BBTF.