Tag Archives: Keston Hiura

February 3, 2021

Wong Move

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The Brewers sign Kolten Wong, improving their defense at second base and their offense at first base.

The deal presumably allows the Brewers to move second baseman Keston Hiura to first base, where they had a need coming out of the 2020 season. A first-round draft pick in 2017, Hiura has experienced throwing issues at second base, leading to six errors in 49 games last season and a total of 22 in 130 games during his two seasons in the majors, with minus-13 defensive runs saved.

JSOnline.com

After playing 143 games in two years for the Brewers, Hiura owns a .266/.338/.505 slash line. That kind of power works well at first base. Wong is no slouch at the plate, with a .333 career OBP but little power. Hiura hit poorly in 2020, but a bounce back to his 2019 levels would make this move look very good.

April 5, 2020

Waiting for the Adjustment

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David Laurila interviews Keston Hiura for the second time, and finds little has changed in three years:

“Nothing’s really changed since I was drafted,” Hiura told me. “Actually, nothing has really changed since high school. I haven’t made adjustments to a crazy launch angle, or anything like that. It’s the same swing, the same approach. I just go out there and try to hit the ball as hard as I can.”

FanGraphs.com

Hitting really boils down to, “See the ball and hit it hard.” Getting there remains very difficult, however. Hiura strikes out a lot, but hits the ball so hard that his BABIP in 2019 came in at .402. His minor league BABIPS were also very high. The adjustment he needs to make is to put the ball in play more often. If he does, he would be a candidate to hit .400.

Laurila’s weekly game notes column is full of baseball goodness.

July 28, 2019

Best Batter Today

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Christian Yelich extended his hit streak to fifteen games with two singles and a game tying home run in the tenth inning off Cubs reliever Craig Kimbrel to stay atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. (Note that Yelich’s teammate, Keston Hiura, hit the game winning home run in the same inning, and also owns a 15-game hit streak.) Mike Trout homered in five trips to stay in second place. Trout probably tops 40 home runs for the second time in his career, and could easily reach 50 home runs for the first time. Ketel Marte drew a walk to stay in third place.

Yuli Gurriel moves into fourth place. Like Yelich and Hiura, Gurriel also owns a 15-game hit streak. I suspect it’s quite rare to see three players with streaks this long at the same time. These are not cheap streaks, either, as all three are hitting over .400 and all three have at least five home runs.

Cody Bellinger returns to the top five with a single and a walk against the Nationals. Ten points separate three through thirteen, so expect the churn to continue.

July 23, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

With Ryan Zimmerman back on the illjured list, Kendrick should be getting more playing time for the Nationals. As always, make sure you check to see if he is starting. Hiura makes the list for the first time, I believe. At seasonal age 22, the rookie is raking with a .331/.391/.613 slash line, and his July numbers are even better. His hit average is still being regressed heavily for his three-year period, but he’s hitting so well he still ranks well above average.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.322, 0.746 — Howie Kendrick batting against Peter Lambert.
  • 0.259, 0.733 — Jeff McNeil batting against Chris Paddack.
  • 0.294, 0.733 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.299, 0.726 — Christian Yelich batting against Tanner Roark.
  • 0.294, 0.724 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.306, 0.722 — Anthony Rendon batting against Peter Lambert.
  • 0.274, 0.721 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fiers.
  • 0.275, 0.720 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Stephen Strasburg.
  • 0.290, 0.719 — Melky Cabrera batting against Dakota Hudson.
  • 0.292, 0.715 — Javier Baez batting against Madison Bumgarner.

Both systems agree on Kendrick as the first choice. Christian Yelich is the consensus second choice. I’m not sure Yelich is a great pick, however. In his career against Roark he is 13 for 48 with 11 walks. So while Yelich has a lot of success against Roark, it’s just not necessarily by hits.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!