Cyril Morong notes that Joe DiMaggio is the only player with at least fifty home run in road games to collect more home runs than strikeouts away from home. This represents a great lesson for power hitters on the value of limiting strikeouts. DiMaggio hit .334/.405/.611 in road games. His BABIP came in at .310, but his BABNIP (HR/(HR+K)) came in at .505. So he hit 24 points above his BABIP. It’s tough to find that kind of batting average enhancement today from home runs and strikeouts.
The closest thing we may have to this kind of BA/BABIP ratio comes off the bat of Nolan Arenado. Arenado, who strikes out at about 14% for his career, owns a number of seasons in which he posted a higher BA than BABIP. Still, for his career, his BABIP stands at .292 and his BA at .289.
One thing that would be extremely exciting for the game would be a run at a .400 BA. That’s possible if a player can combine a high BABIP with a good number of home runs and few strikeouts.
In the last 45 years MLB saw three runs at .400. Rod Carew in 1977 may have been the last real run at that average when he hit .388. Carew reached that mark in a full season, coming to the plate 694 times. George Brett in 1980 hit .390, but with forty-five games missed barely qualified for the batting title with 515 PA. Tony Gwynn hit .394 in the strike-shortened 1994 season when he came to the plate 475 times.
Carew hit his .388 with a BABIP of .408, hitting 14 home runs. Gwynn’s .394 came on BABIP of .389, hitting 12 home runs. Only Brett was DiMaggio like, hitting .390 on a .368 BABIP. He smacked 24 home runs while striking out just 22 times.
Ichiro Suzuki at his best hit .372 on a BABIP of .399. He did not strikeout much, just 63 times, low by modern standards. With just eight home runs, however, his BABNIP was a drag on his batting average.
So how do we engineer a George Brett, someone who combines the BABIP and power of Mike Trout with the in play skills of Luiz Arraez? Would it be possible to get Fernando Tatis Jr.or Bo Bichette to cut their strikeouts in half? Or is it just impossible with modern pitchers and bullpen usage not to strike out a ton?
MLB keeps experimenting with rules at the minor league level, mostly to improve the pace of the game. The limited shifts rule for the 2023 season serves the purpose of producing more base hits on balls in play. That will help in the quest for a .400 hitter. Maybe MLB should think of rule changes in terms of producing a .400 hitter. How does the game either devalue strikeouts or increase the incentives for balls in play? That to me is the next big problem to solve after pace of play.