Tag Archives: Jon Lester

January 12, 2022

Lester Retires

Leave a reply

Veteran pitcher Jon Lester announced his retirement:

“It’s kind of run its course,” Lester told ESPN. “It’s getting harder for me physically. The little things that come up throughout the year turned into bigger things that hinder your performance.

“I’d like to think I’m a halfway decent self-evaluator. I don’t want someone else telling me I can’t do this anymore. I want to be able to hand my jersey over and say, ‘Thank you, it’s been fun.’ That’s probably the biggest deciding factor.”

Chron.com

Few players get to make that choice, and it’s good that Lester took the opportunity to go out on his own. He finishes with a nice round 200 wins against just 117 losses and a 3.66 ERA. He walked just 2.9 batters per nine innings during his career, his strength in three true outcomes.

In looking at Lester’s splits, Man On Third, < 2 Out jumps off the page. Batters hit .347/.371/.471 against him with 67 sacrifice flies in 506 PA. If you look at the various man on third splits as well, a runner on that base seemed to rattle the left-hander. I’ll chalk this up to small sample sizes, as he was great against batters in the other approximately 11,000 times he faced them.

July 5, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Posey injured his thumb but is not on the disabled list. Lester owns a low strikeout rate this season, and many of those balls in play are falling for hits, hence the prevalence of Padres on the list. Machado is five for fifteen against Lester in his career, striking out just once.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.310, 0.738 — Tim Anderson batting against Bailey Ober.
  • 0.307, 0.726 — Nick Castellanos batting against Mike Minor.
  • 0.292, 0.722 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jose Suarez.
  • 0.301, 0.716 — Jose Iglesias batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.320, 0.713 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.300, 0.710 — David Fletcher batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.283, 0.703 — Jean Segura batting against Zach Davies.
  • 0.249, 0.703 — Trea Turner batting against Joe Musgrove.
  • 0.291, 0.701 — Adam Frazier batting against Max Fried.
  • 0.287, 0.698 — Buster Posey batting against Kwang-hyun Kim.

The NN discounts Lester’s poor 2021 season more than the Log5 Method. Anderson comes out on top here, and is the consensus first pick. Castellanos is the consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 17, 2021

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Jon Lester returns to Chicago as the Nationals face the Cubs and Adbert Alzolay. Lester was a bit wild in his first three starts, walking seven batters in sixteen innings. He has yet to allow a home run, however, good for a 2.25 ERA. Alzolay, on the other hand, shows great control and power with a high K rate and a low walk rate, but six home runs put his ERA at 4.50.

In San Diego, Jon Gray leads the Rockies against Yu Darvish. Gray’s 2.93 ERA comes mostly from pitching at Coors, where he owns a 2.00 ERA in 36 innings. Away that mark goes to 6.30 in ten innings. Darvish allowed all five of his home runs in San Diego this season.

Enjoy!

May 12, 2021

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Matt Harvey leads the Orioles against the Mets and Taijuan Walker in a noon tilt. This is Harvey’s first time facing his old team. He is pitching decently, more to contact this season with 25 K in 35 innings. Harvey’s big improvement came in the area of home runs, where he allowed just three this season. Walker owns a 2.38 ERA and allowed just one home run in 34 innings. That gives him the third best HR/9 IP in the majors.

Zack Wheeler takes on Jon Lester as the Phillies continue their series in Washington. Wheeler K’d 49 batters in 47 2/3 innings, helping him allow just 34 hits. Lester, in ten innings, held opponents to a .324 slugging percentage.

Finally, the Cardinals send John Gant against the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff. Gants stands 2-3 despite a 2.15 ERA. The Cardinals scored two runs or less in four of his six starts. Woodruff received three decisions in seven starts despite a 1.73 ERA, as he stands 2-1. It’s tough to say why that’s true. His starts have not been particularly low scoring on the part of the Brewers, and relievers in his starts have a 2.59 ERA. They did blow two saves, however. This just seems to be bad luck.

Enjoy!

March 3, 2021

Day for Surgery

Leave a reply

Nationals pitcher Jon Lester needs to have his thyroid removed, but is expected to miss only a week. The lack quick recoveries from modern surgery continues to amaze me.

Meanwhile, Yankees manager Aaron Boone needed a heart pacemaker implanted today.

Boone, 47, who had open-heart surgery in 2009, said in a statement that he’s had mild symptoms of lightheadedness, low energy and shortness of breath over the past six to eight weeks. He said further tests in New York prior to spring training indicated he had a low heart rate, necessitating the surgery.

ESPN.com

Here is wishing both men a speedy recovery.

January 19, 2021

Lester in DC

Leave a reply

The Nationals reportedly bring in Jon Lester on a one-year contract. I have not seen any salary details. Barry Svrluga of the Washington posts likes the signing:

To be clear: I love this move. Not because I think Lester is going to throw 200 innings at a 3.00 ERA this season. He hasn’t done that since 2016, when the Cubs won the World Series and he fronted a rotation that also included Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks. But that’s not his job here. At 37, don’t ask him to re-create his 32-year-old self. It’s not likely.

Rather, this move is good because it further entrenches the Nats as to who they are. I’m worried about their defense. I’m not certain about their production from third base. I like the bullpen depth if they can find another lefty and somebody to close. But, man, they have some horses to start the game.

WashingtonPost.com

In recent years, Lester saw his strikeout rate fall while his home run rate soared. He still issues very few walks. His fastball velocity declined every year since 2016. Lester needs to transition to a softer tossing lefty role, with huge changes in speeds between pitches. It’s possible if he goes the Tommy John, Jamie Moyer route, Lester could continue to pitch for a number of years. If that does happen, Washington will need their best defense on the field to take care of all the balls in play.

The article points out that this is a rotation of alpha males, who compete against each other. The article fails to point out that they also have a history of supporting each other. Often, during games, you see the starters together discussing strategy, mechanics, etc. They all want to be the number one starter, but they also learn from each other. I think this is going to be a great environment for Lester.

August 11, 2020

Games of the Day

1 Reply

Major League Baseball returns to Buffalo after an extremely long absence as the peripatetic Marlins meet the wandering Blue Jays. Elieser Hernandez takes on Hyun Jin Ryu. Hernandez posted ERAs over 5.00 in each of his first two seasons, but did not allow a run in 4 1/3 innings in his first start of 2020. Ryu recorded a 2.21 ERA his previous two years, but his control abandoned him this season, leading to a 5.14 ERA in 14 innings.

In a rematch of the 2016 World Series, the Cubs visit the Cleveland Indians. Jon Lester takes on Adam Plutko. Lester is striking out batters like it was 1920. Despite his low K rate, he allowed just four hits in eleven innings. Plutko starts due to the ill advised breaking of COVID-19 protocol by Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac, leaving the Indians short of starters. Plutko owns a 2.57 ERA this season, and has yet to issue a walk in seven innings.

Enjoy!

July 27, 2019

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Two good rookies square off in Miami as Alex Young and the Diamondbacks face Jordan Yamamoto. Young proved tough to hit so far, allowing a .120/.195/.267 slash line in 22 2/3 innings. His only weakness so far comes from the three home runs he allowed. Yamamoto pitched 38 innings in seven starts. His 19 walks are high, but he only allowed 19 hits.

The Cubs and Brewers find themselves chasing a second place in the NL Central as Jon Lester takes on Chase Anderson. Lester’s strikeout rate progressed closer to his career average compared to last season, but the increase in Ks did not lead to a decrease in hits. The BABIP against him rose from .290 to .327. After posting a 5.92 ERA in five June starts, Anderson owns a 2.27 ERA in five July starts. He cut down on his home runs allowed in the month.

Finally, first place teams collide in St. Louis as the Astros battle the Cardinals. Gerrit Cole faces Daniel Ponce de Leon. The Cole deal turned out to be a great one for the Astros as he holds a 26-10 record in 54 starts with a 2.94 ERA. He averaged 12.8 K per 9 IP. Batters find Ponce de Leon tough to hit as he allowed a .199/.289/.323 slash line in his brief career.

Enjoy!

July 6, 2019

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Pirates try to gain a game back as they host the first place Brewers. Adrian Houser faces Dario Agrazal in a battle of rookies. Houser’s success in the bullpen has yet to carry over to starting, where he owns a 7.62 ERA in four starts covering 13 innings. He allowed four home runs in that role, as opposed to one home run in 25 innings out of the pen. Agrazal makes the third start of his career. Opponents are batting .282 against him but only two of his eleven hits went for extra bases.

Jon Lester and the Cubs play of the south side of Chicago against White Sox ace Lucas Giolito. Lester handled AL teams well this season, 4-1 with a 3.73 ERA. It seems the Cubs are playing their interleague games early, as about 1/3 of Lester’s starts came against the AL. Giolito’s 2.09 ERA is the best in the AL since the start of May.

Finally, Chris Paddack takes on Kenta Maeda as the Padres play the Dodgers. Paddack continues a promising rookie season in which he struck out 81 and walked 17 in 76 2/3 innings. Half of his twelve home runs coming with men on base hurt his ERA, however. Maeda owns similar K and HR number up eight of his 12 homers came with the bases empty.

Enjoy!

June 24, 2019

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

First place teams clash in Chicago as the Braves visit the Cubs. Julio Teheran faces Jon Lester. Teheran saw a huge improvement in his walk rate in 2016, but he regressed to his mean in 2017 and appears to have stayed there. He cut down his home run rate this season, and owns a very respectable 3.40 ERA. Lester, on the other hand, posts the highest home run rate of his career, a big reason for his 4.47 ERA.

Titans clash in Arizona as Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers take on former teammate Zack Greinke and the Diamondbacks. Kershaw no longer dominates batters with strikeouts at the rate of a few years ago, but he seldom walks batters, and remains difficult to hit. Greinke moved in the same direction, with both a lower walk and K rate than Kershaw. Greinke and Kershaw are both in the top ten of lowest OBP allowed.

Enjoy!

June 19, 2019

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The White Sox send Lucas Giolito against the cross-town Cubs and Jon Lester. Giolito comes into the game with the Karen Valentine ERA of 2.22. He’s holding opponents to a .180 BA and a .255 OBP. With so few runners on base, four of this five home runs were solo shots. Lester owns a 7.59 ERA in his last six starts, allowing nine home runs in that time.

The Rockies visit the Diamondbacks with Jon Gray facing Zack Greinke. Gray pitched worse away from Coors, with nine of his 13 home runs coming on the road. Greinke owns a 2.48 ERA at home, where he allowed just three of his 11 home runs.

Enjoy!

June 8, 2019

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Pirates and Brewers continue their NL Central series with Jordan Lyles facing Zach Davies. Lyles owns a 2.61 ERA on the road, where he struck out 36 batters in 27 innings. Davies lowered his ERA two and a half runs compared to last season, and one and a half runs compared to his career. His three true outcomes are about the same, but Davies is pitching much better with men on base this season.

The Braves face the Marlins with Julio Teheran taking on Trevor Richards. Teheran pitched better than his record, posting a 3.28 ERA. He’s cut down on his home run rate this season. Richards ERA improved in his sophomore season, despite some worsening of his three-true outcome rates. He’s pitched better lately, with a 2.43 ERA since the start of May.

Jack Flaherty and Jon Lester battle in Chicago as the Cardinals visit the Cubs. Flaherty’s high strikeout rate limits opposition hits, but 20% of those hits have left the ballpark. Lester owns a very consistent WHIP the last three season, 1.32, 1.31, and 1.31 this year.

Finally, the Dodgers-Giants rivalry continues with Rich Hill facing Jeff Samardzjia. Hill struck out 46 batters in 40 innings while allowing just nine walks. Samardzjia owns a 2.03 ERA at home, with just three of his eleven home runs coming in San Francisco.

Enjoy!

June 3, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

There are only four games on Monday, as MLB appears to want the amateur draft conflict free for viewing. I personally am not that interested in watching the draft, as the players selected seldom make an immediate impact. People do like the suspense, however, and it’s a way for MLB Network to get more viewers.

When there are few games, there is less of a choice for batters, so you’ll see some name here one doesn’t usually see. David Fletcher, however, often appears in the top ten lists, as well as Jean Segura.

Here are the neural network picks:

  • 0.326, 0.734 — David Fletcher batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.295, 0.722 — Jean Segura batting against Eric Lauer.
  • 0.264, 0.713 — Michael Brantley batting against Connor Sadzeck.
  • 0.303, 0.704 — Tommy La Stella batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.260, 0.688 — Cody Bellinger batting against Robbie Ray.
  • 0.246, 0.686 — Javier Baez batting against Cam Bedrosian.
  • 0.276, 0.684 — Eric Hosmer batting against Aaron Nola.
  • 0.287, 0.680 — Brian Goodwin batting against Jon Lester.
  • 0.254, 0.679 — Adam Jones batting against Walker Buehler.
  • 0.270, 0.674 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Eric Lauer.

Fletcher and Segura are the consensus 1-2 picks. Lester allowed a high BA this season (.280) without many walks, so this is a good match-up for producing a hit.

A note from yesterday on why it’s good to use a lead-off man as a pick. Witt Merrifield was 0 for 4 going into the ninth inning, but due to his position at the top of the order, was going to be the third man up in the inning. The probability of getting a hit in a game goes up with the number of plate appearances, and Merrifield delivered the hit in his final PA.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 28, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

Brantley has success against Lester, 8 for 24 in his career with one walk and nine strikeouts. Brantley reaching base would most likely come via a hit.

Here are the neural network picks:

0.327, 0.744 — Nolan Arenado batting against Merrill Kelly.
0.331, 0.744 — Michael Brantley batting against Jon Lester.
0.323, 0.733 — Jose Martinez batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.304, 0.733 — Jean Segura batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.318, 0.722 — Cody Bellinger batting against Steven Matz.
0.309, 0.722 — Elvis Andrus batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.304, 0.721 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Eric Lauer.
0.299, 0.718 — Jorge Polanco batting against Zach Davies.
0.288, 0.717 — Melky Cabrera batting against Luke Sims.
0.290, 0.714 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Frankie Montas.

Although I only print out three decimal places, Arenado is first, as the sorting is done on the full calculation. Arenado and Brantley are the double down choices for today.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 18, 2019

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Blake Snell faces Masahiro Tanaka as the Rays and Yankees continue their epic battle for the AL East lead. They Rays put together a great cost effective team, while the Yankees added so much depth they sustained injuries to a number of their best players. The big difference in Snell’s ERA this season is that his opposition BABIP went from a ridiculous .241 to a just good .294. Tanaka keeps batters off base, but does give up a ton of extra-base hits.

Houston continues their series in Boston as Corbin Martin takes on Hector Velazquez. The Astros won 12 of their last 13 games and nine in a row. They scored five runs or more in six of those nine games. The rookie Martin makes his second start after striking out nine in 5 1/3 innings in his MLB debut. Velazquez gets in and out of trouble, with the opposition just 3 for 15 against him with runners in scoring position.

The Cubs and Nationals feature the best pitching match-up of the day as Jon Lester takes on Stephen Strasburg. Lester owns a 1.16 ERA, but his 38 2/3 innings is too few to be considered the league leader. He holds the opposition to a .272 OBP and a mere .340 slugging percentage. Strasburg struck out 75 and walked 16 in 57 innings. He’s been hurt by giving up eight of his 14 extra-base hits with men on base.

Enjoy!

May 1, 2019

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Jon Lester leads the Cubs against the Mariners and Marco Gonzales. Lester allowed just five runs in 19 innings, four of them scoring on the three home runs he allowed. Opponents are just 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position, and that one hit was the two-run homer. Gonzales continued the great control he showed in 2018. He’s fourth in the majors in lowest BB/9 IP since the start of last season.

The Blue Jays face the Angels with Marcus Stroman battling Felix Pena. Stroman has yet to allow a home run this season, and his 37 2/3 innings is the most this season without yielding a long ball. Pena’s been very good at keeping batters off base, with a .191 BA and a .296 OBP with none on.

Enjoy!

April 8, 2019

How Unearned

Leave a reply

Three errors by the Pirates led to the Cubs scoring six unearned runs in the second inning of this afternoon’s game between the clubs. The first error came with two out, so in terms of unearned runs it was the only error that mattered. Between the first and last two errors, Jameson Taillon allowed four hits, intentionally walked a batter, and hit a batter. One of those hits was a double by Jon Lester, following the first error (two bases) and an intentional walk. In other words, they defense made a mistake, but Taillon pitched extremely poorly after the miscue. Sometimes, the unearned runs don’t tell the whole story.

The Cubs beat the Pirates 10-0, but Lester went just two inning as he hurt a hamstring running the bases.

April 8, 2019

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Tampa Bay takes their road show to Chicago as Blake Snell faces the White Sox and Carlos Rodon. Snell picked up where he left off last year, striking out 16 and walking just three in his first 13 innings of work. Rodon is doing even better than Snell, with 15 K and two walks in 11 1/3 innings. Look for lots of whiffs in this game.

Pittsburgh sends Jameson Taillon against the Cubs and Jon Lester, as two games take place in the windy city simultaneously. Taillon pitched well so far in his career at Wrigley Field, 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts. That despite allowing four home runs in 18 innings. Lester allowed three home runs in 12.0 innings, but just four runs. All four scored on the three homers.

Finally, the Yankees travel to Houston as Masahiro Tanaka battles Justin Verlander. Tanaka has yet to walk a batter this season. Opponents are collecting hits, but they have not done much damage as he only allowed three runs. Extra-base hits hurt Verlander this season, as five of the nine hits against him were the long variety.

Enjoy!

April 3, 2019

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

German Marquez is the latest pitcher to sign a big extension. He faces the Rays and Charlie Morton.


Starter Germán Márquez and the Colorado Rockies agreed Tuesday on a five-year, $43 million contract extension, pending a physical, locking up the right-hander whose breakout second half helped fuel the Rockies to the 2018 postseason, league sources familiar with the deal told ESPN.


Márquez, 24, capped off one of the best seasons ever by a Rockies starter. He struck out 230 in 196 innings and finished with a 3.77 ERA, building on a solid 2017, his first full season.


Acquired in a 2016 trade from the Tampa Bay Rays for outfielder Corey Dickerson, Márquez parlayed an increased use of his slider after the All-Star break to smashing success. Over 14 starts, he punched out 124 in 93 innings with a 2.61 ERA and six double-digit strikeout games — including four 11-strikeout games in September.

ESPN.com

Marquez is off to a good start in 2019, allowing two hits and striking out seven in six innings, allowing just one run. Morton struck out 372 batters in 318 2/3 innings since returning from an injury filled 2016.

The Orioles and Blue Jays send 0.00 ERA pitchers to the mound as Nate Karns faces Matt Shoemaker. Karns only went two innings in his first start of the year, and managed to not allow a run despite three walks and one hit. Shoemaker was more impressive, going seven shutout innings with two hits allowed and seven strikeouts.

Finally, Jon Lester leads the Cubs against Julio Teheran and the Braves. Lester pitched well against the Braves in his career, 6-2 in nine starts with a 2.47 ERA. He walked just 13 batters in 58 1/3 innings. Teheran pitched mostly well against the Cubs, 3-1 with a 3.44 ERA in eight starts.

Enjoy!

October 2, 2018 October 2, 2018

Playoffs Today

Leave a reply

The 2018 MLB Post Season gets underway with the Rockies visiting the Cubs in the NL Wild Card Game. It looks like Kyle Freeland will take on Jon Lester.

Freeland made an impressive improvement in his strikeout rate this season. In 2017, he struck out 6.2 batters per nine innings, rather low by today’s standards. In 2018, he increased that to 7.7 K per 9 IP, still a bit low, but an impressive gain. In the minors his rate was more like his 2017 number. What changed? At FanGraphs, it looks like he greatly de-emphasized his sinker in favor of more four-seam fastballs and more change-ups. As one might expect, his ground ball rate went down, his fly ball rate went up, but he wasn’t hammered with home runs. I suspect he was saving the sinker for when he really needed a double play. He induced 24 GDPs, second highest in the majors.

In addition, a good four-seam fastball, thrown high in the strike zone, will induce swings and misses and pop ups as the ball stays up more than the batter anticipates. A good change up will also induce some swings and misses. It’s a nice adjustment at this stage of Freeland’s development.

Lester gave up hits, home runs, and walks at about the same rate as in 2017, but his K rate dropped from a great 9.0 per 9 IP to 7.4 K per 9 IP. All things being equal, his ERA should have rose, but instead it dropped from 4.33 to 3.32. His FIP went from 4.10 to 4.40 and his xFIP went from 3.85 to 4.43. Part of it might have been better defense, as his BABIP dropped from .310 to .290. He allowed a .357 slugging percentage with men on base, so runners did not move a long distance against him on hits. Opponents needed a longer offensive sequence to score.

Enjoy!

September 27, 2018

Games of the Day

1 Reply

The Yankees can cut their magic number to one for home field in the wild card game with a win over the Rays. (The Yankees hold the tie breaker against the A’s.) CC Sabathia takes on Jaime Schultz. Sabathia had a rough September, posting a 7.02 ERA as he allowed 27 hits in 16 2/3 innings. Schultz makes his first start after 21 relief appearances. He struck out 33 batters in 29 2/3 innings, allowing just 16 hits. The other two of the three-true outcomes are not so good, as he allowed five home runs and 15 walks. His weaknesses play to the Yankees strengths. The game starts at 1 PM EDT.

At 3 PM EDT, the Phillies take on the Rockies, as Colorado tries to go a full game up on the Dodgers and two games up on the Cardinals. Jake Arrieta faces Antonio Senzatela. Arrieta only pitched in Coors twice in his career, and both times he allowed nine runs. Senzatela owns a 5.20 ERA at home, where he allowed 49 hits in 36 1/3 innings.

Finally, the Pirates and the Cubs finish their series, the Cubs trying to put a full game between themselves and the Brewers. Trevor Williams battles Jon Lester. Williams lowered his ERA by a run this season without improving his three-true outcomes. His BABIP against dropped from a good .291 in 2017 to a great .254 in 2018. He increase his fly ball rate while lowering his home run rate, which indicates to me an improvement in his four-seam fastball. Lester is 3-1 with a 3.72 ERA against the Pirates in five starts this season. He walked eight and struck out 25 in 29 innings.

Enjoy!

September 10, 2018

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Indians head into Tampa Bay to face the red hot Rays. Corey Kluber takes on opener Diego Castillo. The Rays won their last 11 home games and are 21-7 overall in that stretch. They are eight games behind the Athletics for the second wild card, and play Oakland three more times. The Rays have pulled off miracles before. A win by Kluber would certainly help his Cy Young chances.

Wade Miley faces Jon Lester as the Brewers open a three-game series at the Cubs. The Cubs lead the second place Brewers by two games in the NL Central. Miley pitched close to two thirds of his innings on the road this season, posting a 1.96 ERA in 41 1/3 innings. Lester owns a 10-2 record at home with a 2.82 ERA.

Zack Godley leads the Diamondbacks into Colorado to take on the first place Rockies and German Marquez. The Rockies lead the third place Diamondbacks by 2 1/2 games as they open a four-game series. Godley’s three-true outcomes are very similar to his 2017 campaign, but his ERA is over a run higher. His walks are up a little but so are his strikeouts. His hits allowed are way up. It may be a bit of regression, as he allowed a .280 BABIP last season, a .316 BABIP this season. Marquez improved his strikeouts and home runs, and his hits came down. That lowered his ERA to 4.05 from 4.39 in 2017.

Enjoy!

September 2, 2018

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Cubs send Jon Lester against the Phillies and Aaron Nola. Lester appears to have morphed into Tommy John so quickly I didn’t notice. He no longer strikes out a batter an inning, but he still limits hits. He’s not really a soft-tosser, but he is using the Cubs defense more. Nola is an excellent Cy Young Award candidate, and with the Mets and Nationals playing poorly, Nola might get the voters approval.

The Rays use opener Diego Castillo against the Indians and Carlos Carrasco. Castillo pitched well in the opener role, with six K and no walks in 5 1/3 innings. He did give up a three-run homer, however. Carrasco is 5-2 with a 1.80 ERA since the All-Star break.

Clay Buchholz takes on Walker Buehler as the Dodgers and Diamondbacks play for first place in the NL West. Buchholz walked 18 and struck out 71 to help himself to a 2.07 ERA in 14 starts. Buehler owns a 2.43 ERA at Dodger Stadium this season where he walked 9 and struck out 60 in 55 2/3 innings.

Finally, Shohei Ohtani returns to the mound for the Angels against the Astros and Gerrit Cole on Sunday Night Baseball. I do fear for Ohtani’s arm. He owned a 3.10 ERA and a 4-1 record before going down with an slight elbow tear. Cole has yet to beat the Angels this season in two starts. He struck out 15 in 12 innings against the division foe, but allowed two home runs.

Enjoy!

July 31, 2018

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Pirates are one of those teams that are not quite in the race but not quite out of the race in the NL Central as they host the Cubs. Pittsburgh is seven games behind Chicago in the NL Central and 3 1/2 games being the Diamondbacks for the 2nd NL Wild Card. Jon Lester takes on Jameson Taillon. Lester is 7-4 against the Pirates in 14 starts since joining the Cubs. He has allowed 11 home runs in 81 2/3 innings. Taillon faces the Cubs for the first time.

The Twins try to gain another game on the Indians as Cleveland sends Trevor Bauer against Kyle Gibson. Bauer struck out 192 batters this season in 147 1/3 innings after striking out 198 last season in 176 1/3 innings. Gibson owns a 5.21 ERA against the Indians for his career.

Finally, Wade Miley leads Milwaukee against the Dodgers and Walker Buehler. Miley owns a 2.01 ERA this season despite 13 walks and just 12 K in 22 1/3 innings. Buehler walked 14 in 62 innings. They should trade first names, as Walker would be more appropriate for Miley. At least they would not need to change their monograms. 🙂

June 26, 2018

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Nationals and Rays play an unusual 12 PM Tuesday start with Max Scherzer facing Nate Eovaldi. Scherzer is just 1-2 in June despite a 2.57 ERA. The Nationals were shutout twice in his starts this month. Eovaldi walked just three batters in his first 29 1/3 innings this season.

The Yankees send Luis Severino against the Phillies and Jake Arrieta. Severino goes for his twelfth win of the season. He’s allowed just six home runs in 104 2/3 innings. Arrieta’s strikeouts are down this season, just 54 in 79 innings. His .245 BA allowed is the highest he allowed since a .272 in 2012.

Corey Kluber faces Carlos Martinez as the Indians play the Cardinals. Kluber goes for his twelfth win. He’s allowed two more home runs on the road in 12 fewer innings. Martinez lost his control this season, with 42 walks in 66 2/3 innings.

Finally, Jon Lester and Ross Stripling take the mound as the Cubs battle the Dodgers. Lester goes for his tenth win, which would give him his 10th ten-win season. He’s only allowed one of his ten home runs with men on base, helping him to a low ERA. Stripling owns a 1.99 ERA, but is still a few innings away from qualifying for the NL leader board. He’s 4-0 with a 1.82 ERA at home.

Enjoy!

June 20, 2018

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Braves get the day started as they send Anibal Sanchez against J.A. Happ. It’s been tough to get on base against Sanchez this season, as he held the opposition to a .189/.262/.356 slash line. His weakness is the five home runs allowed in his 37 1/3 innings. Happ is the subject of trade speculation as he struck out 94 with just 25 walks in 82 2/3 innings.

In Chicago, Ross Stripling faces Jon Lester as the Dodgers continue their series with the Cubs. Stripling owns a 1.76 ERA, but does not quite have enough innings to qualify for the NL leader board just yet. He’s very good on the road, where only four of his 23 hits have gone for extra bases. Lester allowed 22 extra-base hits this season but only three of those came with runners on. The power against him did little damage this year.

Enjoy!

June 15, 2018

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Cubs and Cardinals renew their rivalry as Jon Lester faces Michael Wacha. Lester comes into the game with a 2.22 ERA, which would be his best with the Cubs. He has allowed seven of his eight home runs on the road, however. Wacha’s 2.47 ERA would also represent his best year with the Cardinals. He is 8-0 since the start of April, his only loss coming in March.

The Angels and Athletics find themselves battling for third place in the AL West, as both come off getting swept by the division leaders. Tyler Skaggs takes on Chris Bassitt. A win by Skaggs would be his sixth, and would set a single season high for him. Bassitt replaces Trevor Cahill, who goes on the disabled list with an Achilles injury. Bassitt had a high ERA at AAA this season despite good three-true outcome numbers, but pitched very well in his 2018 MLB debut.

Finally, the Red Sox and Mariners continue their series in Seattle with Rick Porcello facing James Paxton. Procello pitched well on the road this season, 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA. Only two of his seven home runs allowed came away from Fenway. Paxton’s home runs allowed are up this season, but he allows just a .161 BA with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy!

June 3, 2018

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Cubs and Mets meet in New York where Jon Lester takes on Steven Matz. Lester allowed seven of his eight home runs on the road this season, and pitched just four more innings away. Matz allowed eight of his nine home runs at home, with one more inning pitched at Citi Field. This could be a slugfest in the making.

The winner of the Washington game at Atlanta finishes the four-game series in first place in the NL East. Jeremy Hellickson faces Anibal Sanchez. Both pitchers are enjoying a renaissance. Hellickson owns a 2.30 ERA, having greatly reduced his walk and home runs rates compared to the last two seasons. Sanchez still walks batters, but this season he’s keeping the ball in park.

The Indians try to hold off the Twins as Mike Clevinger battles Kyle Gibson. Cleveinger owns one of the best road ERAs in the majors, 1.61. He allowed just 15 hits in 28 innings away. Gibson is Mr. No Decision this season 1-3 despite a 3.57 ERA.

Finally, an early start to the ESPN game, 7:30 PM EST finds Rick Porcello and the Red Sox facing Charlie Morton and the Astros. Opponents hit Porcello with runners in scoring position this season, .313 BA, but Porcello doesn’t allow himself to get in the situation often. Just 64 of the 283 AB against him game with men in scoring position. Morton tries to remain undefeated as he goes for his eighth win of the season. He owns a 1.85 ERA at home where his has pitched 43 2/3 innings of his 67 2/3 innings for the season.

Enjoy!

May 29, 2018

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

Charlie Morton goes for his eighth win without a loss as the Astros face CC Sabathia and the Yankees. Since joining the Astros in 2017, batters find Morton tough to hit. His .214 BA allowed ranks ninth lowest in the majors in that time frame. After allowing a 1.69 ERA in April, Sabathia gave up a 6.05 ERA so far in May. Despite a higher K rate in the month, Sabathia gave up more hits.

The Cubs try to push the Pirates further down in the NL Central as Jon Lester takes on rookie Nick Kingham. Lester owns an outstanding 2.37 ERA this season, but gave up four runs in five innings against the Pirates earlier this year. In his first 18 1/3 innings, Kinghmam walked just two batters while striking out 21.

Finally, Jake Arrieta leads the Phillies against the Dodgers and Kenta Maeda. Arrieta allowed just one home run at home and one on the road, but 29 K at home and just six on the road. The low K rate leads to a 5.12 ERA away. Maeda owns a 2.88 ERA at home this year versus 3.86 on the road. He’s allowed fewer hits and walks away in the same amount of innings, so the difference looks like good luck in Los Angeles.

Enjoy!