For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.268, 0.677 — Alec Burleson batting at Justin Verlander.
- 0.261, 0.669 — Brendan Donovan batting at Justin Verlander.
- 0.258, 0.651 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
- 0.256, 0.643 — Christian Koss batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
- 0.255, 0.662 — Ivan Herrera batting at Justin Verlander.
- 0.252, 0.643 — Heliot Ramos batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
- 0.249, 0.651 — Drake Baldwin batting vs. MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.247, 0.656 — Ronald Acuna Jr. batting vs. MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.245, 0.638 — Thomas Saggese batting at Justin Verlander.
- 0.242, 0.625 — Jerar Encarnacion batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
The schedule holds just three games today with Verlander making the penultimate start of his career? The better Cardinals hitters look good against him.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.268, 0.677 — Alec Burleson batting at Justin Verlander.
- 0.222, 0.674 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Freddy Peralta.
- 0.261, 0.669 — Brendan Donovan batting at Justin Verlander.
- 0.255, 0.662 — Ivan Herrera batting at Justin Verlander.
- 0.247, 0.656 — Ronald Acuna Jr. batting vs. MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.249, 0.651 — Drake Baldwin batting vs. MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.258, 0.651 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
- 0.237, 0.650 — Daylen Lile batting at Chris Sale.
- 0.240, 0.644 — Michael Harris II batting vs. MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.218, 0.644 — Jackson Chourio batting at Nick Pivetta.
It’s a low day for high probabilities. Burleson and Donovan stand as the consensus double down picks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!