Tag Archives: Nick Castellanos

October 6, 2025

Phillies Mount a Comeback

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The first three Phillies batting in the bottom of the ninth, record hits, with Nick Castellanos just beating a throw to second for the second double of the inning. He drove in two runs to make the score 4-3 in favor of the Dodgers. Blake Treinen failed to record the save, and the Phillies are in a good position to tie the game. They are essentially in the ghost runner situation.

Update: The Phillies try to bunt Castellanos over, but Max Muncy throws him out at third with Mookie Betts covering.

Update: Harrison Bader, with a bad groin, pinch hits and singles to put men on first and second with one out. He leaves for a pinch runner.

Update: Max Kepler grounds into a force at second. First and third with two out, and Roki Sasaki comes in to try to get the final out for the Dodgers.

Update: Trea Turner bats. He grounds out to second base, Freddie Freeman making a great pick on a low throw to save the game.

The Dodgers in 4-3, and go up 2-0 in the series as they only need to win one game at home to advance to the NLCS.

October 4, 2025

Castellanos Sits

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The Phillies benched outfielder Nick Castellanos for game one of the NLDS:

The right-handed-hitting Castellanos said he had “communication” issues earlier this season when he was scratched from the lineup by manager Rob Thomson.

Castellanos played 147 games and hit just .250 with 72 RBIs this season a year after he played in all 162. Max Kepler got the start in right field against LA, batting seventh.

Chron.com

Castellanos hit .206/.250/.329 since July 1. He’s no longer a good hitter.

June 17, 2025

Cast Away

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Phillies manager Rob Thomson sat Nick Castellanos on Tuesday after Castellano said something inappropriate after being removed for defensive purposes on Monday:

“One of the many things about Nick that I love is that he’s very emotional,” Thomson said. “He loves to play, and he loves to play every inning of every game. I just thought last night he made an inappropriate comment after he came out, and so today, he’s not going to play. And I’m going to leave it at that.”

Castellanos’ consecutive games streak will end at 236. The last game he missed for the Phillies was on Sept. 30, 2023.

ESPN.com

Maybe Castellanos wants to play for the Giants. He does have a lot of big, negative numbers under his defensive value at FanGraphs.

The Phillies lost to the Marlins without him 8-3.

May 22, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Only nine games on tap today, but one of them takes place in Colorado. Harper and Turner hit Marquez decently, but Kyle Schwarber, who is not on the list, owns the best numbers on the Phillies against the Rockies starter.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.339, 0.737 — Trea Turner batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.305, 0.733 — Luis Arraez batting against Bowden Francis.
  • 0.293, 0.712 — Jackson Merrill batting against Bowden Francis.
  • 0.317, 0.710 — Edmundo Sosa batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.259, 0.704 — Aaron Judge batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
  • 0.315, 0.702 — Nick Castellanos batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.306, 0.698 — Alec Bohm batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.310, 0.698 — Austin Riley batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.275, 0.692 — Steven Kwan batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.256, 0.688 — Jacob Wilson batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.307, 0.688 — Drake Baldwin batting against Trevor Williams.

Eric Lutz provided comments over the last two weeks in these posts showing how the best picks come from players who make both lists. Great work on his end. Turner tops both today, with Sosa the consensus double down choice. Sosa does not start often, however, so Castellanos might be a better choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 19, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The NN yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

The league is hitting .327 against Freeland this season with a .354 OBP. That’s a relatively low OBP with a high BA, indicating lots of batters are reaching against him via a hit. The trick is picking the batter who is likely to go one for two against him. Since the start of 2023, Turner owns a .281 BA with a .331 OBP. Again, that’s a relatively high BA for the current environment with a relatively low OBP. It looks like a match made in heaven.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.357, 0.745 — Trea Turner batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.317, 0.727 — Freddie Freeman batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.337, 0.717 — Nick Castellanos batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.332, 0.713 — Edmundo Sosa batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.302, 0.713 — Brendan Donovan batting against Keider Montero.
  • 0.327, 0.711 — Alec Bohm batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.298, 0.706 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.294, 0.702 — Jacob Wilson batting against Jose Soriano.
  • 0.278, 0.695 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jose Soriano.
  • 0.283, 0.693 — Ivan Herrera batting against Keider Montero.

The NN produces fewer Phillies, but Turner still comes out head and shoulders above everyone else. Note that the Phillies play at Coors which gives all hits a big boost. Castellanos gets the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 19, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

It looks like a potentially high hit day for the Phillies. Quantrill owned a very low strikeout rate over the last few seasons, but now combines that with a very high BABIP, .386. I’ll also point out this article on Bryce Harper’s improvement at the plate. He laid off the slider, and thought that in ten days he would be crushing the ball:

Harper homered and walked on the ninth day of his 10-day timeline on Tuesday. He homered, singled and walked twice on the 10th day on Wednesday. On the 12th day, he crushed a two-run home run into the second deck in right field in the first inning and walked in Friday’s 7-2 victory over the Marlins at Citizens Bank Park.

“I just thought, ‘[I’m] walking more,’” Harper said, explaining why he felt he was heating up. “When I walk more, I see more pitches, I feel better at the plate. I think when I walk, good things happen. I’m getting good pitches over the plate and not missing them.”

MLB.com

Not, however, that Harper walking more doesn’t really increase the chance of him getting a hit. Haper is now 14th on the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. On the morning of the seventh he ranked 31st. Both Harper and Castellanos are two for eight against Quantrill.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.276, 0.700 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Casey Mize.
  • 0.250, 0.696 — Luis Arraez batting against Hayden Wesneski.
  • 0.275, 0.687 — Xavier Edwards batting against Taijuan Walker.
  • 0.283, 0.672 — Nick Castellanos batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.280, 0.671 — Edmundo Sosa batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.245, 0.670 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael King.
  • 0.266, 0.662 — Trea Turner batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.261, 0.662 — Yandy Diaz batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.264, 0.662 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Kyle Hendricks.
  • 0.244, 0.660 — Brendan Donovan batting against Kodai Senga.
  • 0.244, 0.660 — Corey Seager batting against Roki Sasaki.

Donovan’s hit streak is up to fourteen games, while Witt and Edwards stand at eleven. Seager and Arraez each own a six game streak. Witt gets the nod as the consensus top pick with Castellanos the double down choice. In a small sample, Witt hits Mize well. He’s four for eight with three walks and just one strikeout. The four hits include a triple and a home run.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

October 6, 2024

Walk Off Phillies

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The Phillies turn out to be the comeback team in game two. The were down 3-0 in the sixth inning and tied the game. They were down 4-3 in the eight and took a 6-4 lead. The Mets as they’ve done lately, came back with two runs of their own in the ninth on third extra-base hit by Mark Vientos, his second two-run homer of the game.

That brought the Phillies up in the bottom of the ninth. Trea Turner and Bryce Harper reached base and with two out and two strikes, Nick Castellanos drove the ball to deep left for the game winning hit. He went three for five on the night.

Four of the five game played so far have been close exiting games. This might be an LDS round for the ages.

October 17, 2023

Playoffs Today

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The Diamondbacks and the Phillies play game two of the NLCS at 7 PM EDT in Philadelphia. Merrill Kelly takes on Aaron Nola. With the sweep in the Wild Card Round, the Diamondbacks were able to give Kelly plenty of rest , and he shutout the Dodgers for 6 1/3 innings. This will be Kelly’s second time pitching in Philadelphia. On 6/12/2019, he threw 7 2/3 shutout innings, allowing three hits while striking out five.

Nola pitched better than his 4.46 ERA this season. FanGraphs puts his xFIP at 3.63, about 0.8 runs lower than his ERA. It was a timing issue as batters slugged .395 against him with the bases empty, but .482 against him with men on base. Slugging average is a measure of distance; the higher the slugging, the farther a batter can move runners around the bases.

Nick Castellanos of the Phillies looks to break a record tonight. He is tied with Henry Aaron and Donn Clendenon as the only players to homer in three straight post-season games.

Enjoy!

October 16, 2023

HR Streak

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Nick Castellanos of the Phillies homers with one out in the second inning to extend the Phillies lead over the Diamondbacks to 3-0. He’s now homered in three straight games, five dingers in all. I have to believe that a pretty good home run streak for the post-season.

Update: As far as I can tell, Schwarber ties a record help by Donn Clendenon of the Mets and Hank Aaron of the Braves in 1969. Aaron hit home runs in three straight games against the Mets in the best of five NLCS, but the Mets won the series. Clendenon, who did not play in the NLCS, then hit home runs in three straight games for the Mets against the Orioles in the World Series.

October 13, 2023

Best Batter Today

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Trea Turner of the Phillies moves into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after a four for four game four of the NLDS. Turner included a double and home run in the 3-1 win over the Braves that sent the Phillies to the NLCS. Through August fourth, Turner owned a .236/.289/.367 slash line and ranked 167 on the list. Since then, he hit .339/.391/.667 to finish the regular season, and .500/.538/.917 in the playoffs.

Bryce Harper of the Phillies just held Turner off Harper collecting a single and two walks in the the game. The idle Yordan Alvarez of the Astros, and the vacationing Juan Soto and Aaron Judge rank 1-2-3 respectively.

Nick Castellanos of the Phillies post the best game score of the night, an 84. He went three for three with a walk and two home runs, the first player to hit two home runs in consecutive games in the playoffs. He ranks 44th after two incredible games.

October 12, 2023 October 12, 2023 October 9, 2023

Deep Double Play

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The Braves win on a double play to the wall in centerfield. Bryce Harper of the Phillies walked to lead off the inning, and with one out and Harper on first, Nick Castellanos launched a ball to the wall in centerfield. Michael Harris II made a great leaping catch for the out. Harper was running, and was past second when the ball was caught. The throw came in and was initially bobbled, but Austin Riley backed up the play and just got Harper at first base. The Braves win 5-4 to even the series.

The NLDS moves to Philadelphia on Wednesday for two games, the Phillies with home phield advantage.

September 4, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Diaz is five for seven against Bello. Castellanos is one for fifteen against Hill. There is a limited schedule today so choose wisely.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.297, 0.717 — Harold Ramirez batting against Brayan Bello.
  • 0.294, 0.709 — Corey Seager batting against J.P. France.
  • 0.294, 0.706 — Yandy Diaz batting against Brayan Bello.
  • 0.281, 0.688 — Nick Castellanos batting against Rich Hill.
  • 0.276, 0.687 — Trea Turner batting against Rich Hill.
  • 0.271, 0.686 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Kenny Rosenberg.
  • 0.263, 0.685 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Aaron Civale.
  • 0.277, 0.685 — Whit Merrifield batting against Ken Waldichuk.
  • 0.278, 0.684 — Josh Lowe batting against Brayan Bello.
  • 0.277, 0.682 — Bryce Harper batting against Rich Hill.

As the year winds down, the two system seem to be in good agreement nearly every day. Ramirez and Seager are the unanimous double down picks for today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 11, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

It’s a Fred day. Note that Adam Wainwright pitched so poorly this season he sends the Royals predictions through the roof. Fremin has not played much this year, but with a .302 BA and a .337 OBP, most of his on-base percentage comes from hits.

Both Garica and Castellanos own long hit streaks.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.299, 0.757 — Luis Arraez batting against Randy Vasquez.
  • 0.339, 0.751 — Freddie Freeman batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.314, 0.722 — Ronald Acuna batting against Tylor Megill.
  • 0.307, 0.717 — Alec Bohm batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.301, 0.716 — Joey Meneses batting against Paul Blackburn.
  • 0.303, 0.716 — Michael Harris II batting against Tylor Megill.
  • 0.307, 0.713 — Bryson Stott batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.302, 0.712 — Nick Castellanos batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.292, 0.709 — Corey Seager batting against Scott Alexander.
  • 0.331, 0.706 — Freddy Fermin batting against Adam Wainwright.

It’s a rare day that Arraez fails to make both lists. Vazquez makes the fourth start of his career, and so far allowed just nine hits in 15 1/3 innings. He walked a ton of batters, seven, and only struck out ten. He’s yet to allow a hit with runners in scoring position.

Freeman is the consensus top pick with Acuna the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 15, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

You could make a pretty good top of the line from the current and former Nationals on this list. That’s due to Harper and Turner both playing for the Phillies now, and that squad looks to have a good day against Ryan Weathers.

Note that there are twoish double headers today. The Rays and Royals play two in Kansas City to make up for rain on Friday, while the Nationals and Cardinals finish a suspended game, then play the regularly scheduled contest. The above is for the second game.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.339, 0.775 — Luis Arraez batting against Kyle Gibson.
  • 0.330, 0.732 — Nick Castellanos batting against Ryan Weathers.
  • 0.310, 0.724 — Joey Meneses batting against Steven Matz.
  • 0.274, 0.714 — Bo Bichette batting against Zac Gallen.
  • 0.320, 0.713 — Bryson Stott batting against Ryan Weathers.
  • 0.313, 0.711 — Alec Bohm batting against Ryan Weathers.
  • 0.288, 0.703 — Harold Castro batting against Clarke Schmidt.
  • 0.298, 0.702 — Trea Turner batting against Ryan Weathers.
  • 0.278, 0.701 — Corey Seager batting against Gavin Williams.
  • 0.290, 0.700 — Austin Hays batting against Braxton Garrett.

Arraez is in a bit of slump, with his BA down to .380. So far this season, he’s been able to come up with a big game to stop the slumps, so we’ll see if he can pull that off again. He and Castellanos are the unanimous double down choices.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 2, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Bichette may be the second best hitter to extend a streak this season. He owns a .354 BABIP, and while his 17.3% strikeout rate is not low, it’s not particularly high for this era. His walks are low, so his .347 OBP is made up mostly of hits.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.343, 0.750 — Bo Bichette batting against Garrett Whitlock.
  • 0.277, 0.745 — Luis Arraez batting against Spencer Strider.
  • 0.314, 0.727 — Nick Castellanos batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.308, 0.724 — Freddie Freeman batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.290, 0.701 — Ezequiel Duran batting against Shawn Dubin.
  • 0.292, 0.699 — Corey Seager batting against Shawn Dubin.
  • 0.286, 0.698 — Luis Robert batting against Paul Blackburn.
  • 0.266, 0.695 — Joey Meneses batting against Ranger Suarez.
  • 0.289, 0.693 — Alec Bohm batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.281, 0.693 — Trea Turner batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.284, 0.693 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Paul Blackburn.

It takes Strider to knock Luis Arraez out of the top spot in the NN picks. Strider brings in a .187 hit average for this season, and a .175 mark since the start of 2021. Both are well below the league average of .221, so we would expect Arraez to be pulled down against this pitcher. Arraez and Strider never faced each other, so we’ll see how this works out. Bichette is two for eight with four strikeouts against Whitlock.

Bichette is the unanimous top pick, with Castellanos the consensus double down choice. Castellanos hits Williams well, 10 for 25 with two walks and two strikeouts. Lots of balls in play in that match-up.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 27, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Whitlock allows a .278 BA with a .306 OBP. Those are the kind of numbers one looks for in a hitter to extend a streak, so it’s no wonder Arraez is predicted to hit so well against him.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.366, 0.791 — Luis Arraez batting against Garrett Whitlock.
  • 0.311, 0.729 — Freddie Freeman batting against Connor Seabold.
  • 0.298, 0.729 — Bo Bichette batting against Ryan Walker.
  • 0.315, 0.722 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jameson Taillon.
  • 0.275, 0.703 — Joey Meneses batting against Bryan Woo.
  • 0.284, 0.697 — Ezequiel Duran batting against Matt Manning.
  • 0.285, 0.694 — Corey Seager batting against Matt Manning.
  • 0.292, 0.690 — Josh Naylor batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.259, 0.688 — Harold Ramirez batting against Zac Gallen.
  • 0.280, 0.688 — Trea Turner batting against Jameson Taillon.

Everything is working in Arraez’s favor today, the pitcher, the park, and he’s on a nine-game hit streak. His .791 probability of getting a hit is the highest for a day this season.

Bichette, Castellanos, and Freeman all tie for consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 5, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

The extended list captures Semien who now owns a twenty three game hit streak. If you click on a name on the current hit streaks page, you’ll see the details. Semien shows a number of games with just one hit, and an overall BA of .327. While his BA isn’t very high for a hot player, Semien collect a high number of long hits. Fifteen of his 33 hits in the streak went for extra bases, including two triples. Note also that with only six walks, his hit average is high.

Wander Franco missed Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury, so check his status before the Rays game.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.333, 0.771 — Luis Arraez batting against Carlos Hernandez.
  • 0.315, 0.739 — Bo Bichette batting against Brandon Bielak.
  • 0.329, 0.730 — Nick Castellanos batting against Joey Wentz.
  • 0.299, 0.720 — Harold Ramirez batting against Brayan Bello.
  • 0.295, 0.711 — Wander Franco batting against Brayan Bello.
  • 0.300, 0.705 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.283, 0.691 — Yandy Diaz batting against Brayan Bello.
  • 0.288, 0.690 — Nathaniel Lowe batting against Adam Wainwright.
  • 0.284, 0.688 — Trea Turner batting against Joey Wentz.
  • 0.294, 0.687 — Corey Seager batting against Adam Wainwright.
  • 0.287, 0.687 — Salvador Perez batting against Braxton Garrett.

Arraez ranks head and shoulder above everyone else again. Bichette and Castellanos tie for the consensus double down choice.

The NN assigns a .681 probability to Semien continuing his streak.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 17, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Wednesday might be a good day for the Phillies as Ross Stripling of the Giants owns a 7.14 ERA and allowed 37 hits in 29 innings. Castellanos and Turner have tended to do well in beat the streak rankings over the seasons.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.304, 0.743 — Luis Arraez batting against MacKenzie Gore.
  • 0.302, 0.710 — Nick Castellanos batting against Ross Stripling.
  • 0.288, 0.702 — Alex Verdugo batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.287, 0.702 — Trea Turner batting against Ross Stripling.
  • 0.282, 0.699 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Kyle Bradish.
  • 0.279, 0.695 — Jeff McNeil batting against Josh Fleming.
  • 0.248, 0.694 — Bo Bichette batting against Gerrit Cole.
  • 0.261, 0.694 — Harold Ramirez batting against Kodai Senga.
  • 0.280, 0.694 — Ronald Acuna batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
  • 0.275, 0.693 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Luis Medina.

With the exception of Arraez, who tops both lists, this is a rather low probability day. The two systems agree on the top four picks, which is rare. That makes Castellanos the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 16, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Gurriel looks like a great pick without running a program. Muller allowed 53 hits in 38 innings this season. Gurriel is hitting .373/.418/.431 against left-handed pitchers this season with just six K in 55 PA.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.296, 0.737 — Luis Arraez batting against Josiah Gray.
  • 0.306, 0.713 — Nick Castellanos batting against Alex Cobb.
  • 0.311, 0.712 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Kyle Muller.
  • 0.304, 0.708 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.291, 0.705 — Trea Turner batting against Alex Cobb.
  • 0.281, 0.705 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Wade Miley.
  • 0.287, 0.704 — Joey Meneses batting against Jesus Luzardo.
  • 0.239, 0.691 — Bo Bichette batting against Domingo German.
  • 0.300, 0.689 — Gabriel Moreno batting against Kyle Muller.
  • 0.283, 0.688 — Amed Rosario batting against Lance Lynn.

Arraez returns to action after an off day. Castellanos and Gurriel tie for the consensus double down picks. Castellanos hits for a high BA this season despite a very high K rate. Both he and Cobb own high BABIPs so if Castellanos puts the ball in play, it has a very good chance of finding a hole.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 12, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

At seasonal age 27, the usual peak for batters, Estrada is easily have his best year. He ranks fourth in the NL in batting average, and is 62 points above his career mark.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.304, 0.746 — Luis Arraez batting against Graham Ashcraft.
  • 0.300, 0.718 — Nick Castellanos batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.284, 0.707 — Trea Turner batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.305, 0.702 — Thairo Estrada batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.288, 0.699 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Ross Stripling.
  • 0.279, 0.696 — Alex Verdugo batting against Adam Wainwright.
  • 0.274, 0.694 — Joey Meneses batting against Tylor Megill.
  • 0.264, 0.690 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against James Paxton.
  • 0.267, 0.687 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Logan Allen.
  • 0.249, 0.680 — Tim Anderson batting against J.P. France.

Arraez fell below .400 after Wednesday’s game, and his BA now stands at .398. We’ll see if a day off and a return home can help him get back over the magic mark. He is the consensus top pick, with Estrada and Castellanos tied for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 30, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Woodford does not strike out batters, just 90 in 590 batters faced since the start of the 2021 season. Freeman owns a low K rate for a slugger. Even though the method only looks at hit averages, those are tied to Ks indirectly, and it appears to pick that up. A batter who puts the ball in play against a pitcher who allows the ball to be put in play provides a good chance of advancing a streak.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.262, 0.719 — Luis Arraez batting against Justin Steele.
  • 0.285, 0.708 — Bo Bichette batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.286, 0.707 — Nico Hoerner batting against Bryan Hoeing.
  • 0.297, 0.705 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jake Woodford.
  • 0.294, 0.702 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Noah Syndergaard.
  • 0.295, 0.701 — Nick Castellanos batting against Jose Urquidy.
  • 0.285, 0.699 — Trea Turner batting against Jose Urquidy.
  • 0.285, 0.696 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.285, 0.694 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Alex Cobb.
  • 0.262, 0.689 — Harold Ramirez batting against Michael Clevinger.

The NN provides a very similar list, with the big difference coming from Luis Arraez on top here, and not appearing in the Log5 group. Steele is the opposite of Woodford, as Steele issues lots of walks and sends lots of batters down via the K. That leads to a low BA against, and a very low long-term hit average of .200. He pulls Arraez down, while Steele promotes Freeman.

Freeman is the consensus top pick, with Hoerner, Goldschmidt and Castellanos tied for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

October 29, 2022

Extra One

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Nick Castellanos of the Phillies makes a great sliding catch with Jose Altuve of the Astros at second base to end the bottom of the ninth inning with the teams tied at five. The Phillies played pretty good defense tonight.

Update: J.T. Realmuto gets another big hit as he leads off the tenth inning with a home run. He hits it the opposite way, a few rows into the rightfield stands. The Phillies lead the Astros 6-5.

October 28, 2022

Close, But No Cigar

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The Phillies load the bases with two out in the top of the seventh inning, but Hector Neris comes on and strikes out Nick Castellanos to end the threat. The Astros get out of a tight squeeze and the game remains tied at five at the stretch.

That was also a great example of an inning with successes in clutch situations, but not great successes.

October 2, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

It’s a pick anyone against Corbin day. Corbin pitched a bit better lately, with opponents hitting .269/.303/.441 against him since August 16th. Bohm and Realmuto hit him well.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.306, 0.728 — Trea Turner batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.331, 0.721 — Nick Castellanos batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.334, 0.721 — Alec Bohm batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.332, 0.721 — Jean Segura batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.303, 0.717 — Freddie Freeman batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.323, 0.707 — Bryce Harper batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.278, 0.706 — Bo Bichette batting against Michael Wacha.
  • 0.298, 0.705 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.267, 0.703 — Luis Arraez batting against Joey Wentz.
  • 0.317, 0.699 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Patrick Corbin.

Turner’s numbers are enough to overcome the Corbin project. Bohm is the consensus top pick, while Castellanos comes in second.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 16, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

It’s pick a Phillies day, as Corbin allows a .313/.376/.482 slash line this season. Over the longer three-season span that slash line looks like .297/.353/.499. At what point do the Nationals eat his contract? Hoskins, Segura, and Harper are all in the top 20 batting averages against Corbin.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.340, 0.728 — Bryce Harper batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.285, 0.716 — Rafael Devers batting against Paul Blackburn.
  • 0.279, 0.711 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Paul Blackburn.
  • 0.278, 0.705 — J.D. Martinez batting against Paul Blackburn.
  • 0.311, 0.701 — Nick Castellanos batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.279, 0.698 — Harold Castro batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.312, 0.696 — Odubel Herrera batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.282, 0.695 — Jeff McNeil batting against Aaron Ashby.
  • 0.271, 0.689 — Starling Marte batting against Aaron Ashby.
  • 0.271, 0.689 — Manny Machado batting against Matt Swarmer.

Both systems agree on Bryce Harper as the top pick, with Castellanos coming in as the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 25, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

The Phillies host the Rockies Monday evening, and it looks like they should have a good day against Freeland. Castellanos comes out on top as most of his OBP comes from his hits, as his walk rate is low.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.282, 0.709 — Trea Turner batting against Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.297, 0.708 — Michael Brantley batting against Dane Dunning.
  • 0.304, 0.703 — Nick Castellanos batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.281, 0.688 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
  • 0.275, 0.682 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jose Berrios.
  • 0.288, 0.680 — Jean Segura batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.267, 0.675 — Freddie Freeman batting against Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.266, 0.673 — Bo Bichette batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
  • 0.269, 0.670 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
  • 0.270, 0.669 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Dane Dunning.

Turner comes out on top once again, but this might be the first time this season three batters all come in with probabilities over .700. Brantley and Castellanos, however, are tied for the consensus double down picks.

Nice to see the Gurriel brothers neck and neck.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 19, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

The first two doubleheaders of the season take place today, one in New York and one in Washington. If you pick a player from those games, make sure they are in the starting line-up. Or just pick a random Phillies batter from a game in Colorado! The Freeman-Fried match-up is rather alliterative.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.285, 0.708 — Trea Turner batting against Max Fried.
  • 0.291, 0.694 — Nick Castellanos batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.244, 0.685 — Tim Anderson batting against Shane Bieber.
  • 0.285, 0.684 — Jean Segura batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.285, 0.677 — Alec Bohm batting against Kyle Freeland..
  • 0.261, 0.675 — Bo Bichette batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
  • 0.262, 0.671 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
  • 0.271, 0.671 — Amed Rosario batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.278, 0.670 — Jose Ramirez batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.259, 0.668 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
  • 0.260, 0.668 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Nathan Eovaldi.

Turner, once again, is the only player to calculate to a better than .700 probability. Castellanos and Segura, however, are the consensus double down picks. It also looks like the Red Sox at Boston provide some offensive entertainment, but be careful there as well as some Red Sox players are not allowed in Canada due to COVID restrictions.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 9, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 picks:

Note that these hit averages are going to be low early on. There is nearly full regression to the position player mean, which is low right now at .202. The major league batting average stands at .230 with a .316 OBP as the three-true outcomes continue to reign supreme.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.265, 0.695 — Trea Turner batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.267, 0.680 — Bo Bichette batting against Dane Dunning.
  • 0.262, 0.673 — Luis Robert batting against Matt Manning.
  • 0.268, 0.671 — Nick Castellanos batting against Cole Irvin.
  • 0.261, 0.669 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Dane Dunning.
  • 0.248, 0.669 — Michael Brantley batting against Noah Syndergaard.
  • 0.261, 0.668 — A.J. Pollock batting against Matt Manning.
  • 0.260, 0.665 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Dane Dunning.
  • 0.267, 0.663 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Mitch Keller.
  • 0.263, 0.660 — Jean Segura batting against Cole Irvin.

Turner often turns up near the top of the NN list. Over the last three seasons he posted a high BA and OBP, with his OBP mostly made up from his hits. He bats high in the order which gives him more opportunities in a game to collect a hit as well.

Bo Bichette is the consensus first pick, however, with Nick Castellanos and Turner tied for the double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!