Tag Archives: Jakob Marsee

September 18, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

The Marlins developed a pair of table setters who are very good at collecting hits.

The NN produces this list of batter with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.308, 0.729 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Colin Rea.
  • 0.289, 0.728 — Jacob Wilson batting at Brayan Bello.
  • 0.325, 0.726 — Xavier Edwards batting at Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.324, 0.711 — Jakob Marsee batting at Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.278, 0.709 — Luis Arraez batting at Jonah Tong.
  • 0.289, 0.705 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. J.T. Ginn.
  • 0.293, 0.702 — Amed Rosario batting at Cade Povich.
  • 0.278, 0.701 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Luis Castillo.
  • 0.281, 0.699 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.289, 0.697 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Logan Webb.

The Cubs have not officially announced a starter, but Rea throws from the right side making it unlikely that Andujar gets the start. He and Edwards are tied for the consensus top pick. Note that there are a ton of afternoon games and no late games today, so get your picks in early.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 16, 2025

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

I think it says something about the Marlins offense that they don’t dominate a Freeland start like most teams. The Yankees should have a good day versus Matthews. The rookie Marsee owns a .397 BABIP in 178 PA.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.319, 0.735 — Miguel Andujar batting at Michael McGreevy.
  • 0.292, 0.726 — Jacob Wilson batting at Connelly Early.
  • 0.321, 0.724 — Xavier Edwards batting at Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.323, 0.712 — Jakob Marsee batting at Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.307, 0.712 — Amed Rosario batting at Zebby Matthews.
  • 0.270, 0.704 — Luis Arraez batting at Clay Holmes.
  • 0.275, 0.703 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Jeffrey Springs.
  • 0.300, 0.701 — Aaron Judge batting at Zebby Matthews.
  • 0.273, 0.692 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Jose Berrios.
  • 0.276, 0.690 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Jose Berrios.

Andujar probably does not start against the right-handed pitcher. Andujar would be the consensus top pick, with Edwards and Marsee tied for the double down choice.

The Braves and Nationals play a doubleheader, so be careful picking from those games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 14, 2025

Best Batter Today

2 Replies

William Contreras of the Brewers tops the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings as he continued his onslaught* Wednesday. He went two for three with two walks and four RBI in the 12-5 win over the Pirates, Milwaukee’s twelfth win in a row. That raised his OBP to .362 for the season. He now owns a five-game hit streak, with multiple hits in his last four games.

*Not to be confused with Don Slaught.

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians drops to second place after a one for three in a 13-4 Marlins win. In that game, Jakob Marsee of the Marlins posted the highest game score of the day, a 91. That was the 20th game score of at least 90 in 2025. Marsee went four for five with a double and two home runs, driving in seven runs along the way. Thirteen games into his career, Marsee owns a .436/.542/.872 slash line, with ten of his seventeen hits going for extra bases. In the minors, Marsee’s strength was his ability to get on base. His BA and power numbers were okay. We’ll see how long this lasts.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays sits in third place after a one for four with a double in a 4-1 Cubs win. Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers ranks fourth, as he tripled and walked in a 6-5 Angels win. He now owns eight triples on the season, The third time he reached that level in a season. One more gives him a new single season high.

Corey Seager of the Rangers rounds out the top five. He went 0 for 5 in a 6-4 Diamondbacks win.