Tag Archives: Eduardo Rodriguez

September 23, 2024

Games of the Day

The Phillies can clinch the NL East title with a win at home against the Cubs. Nate Pearson takes on Aaron Nola. Pearson will be serving as the opener for the first time this season. He brings a high K rate to the first inning, but he also allows a good many home runs, a strength of the top of the Phillies lineup. Nola finishes his tenth season in the majors, all with the Phillies. He will only have nine seasons of service time at the end of 2024, so he’s not a 10-5 player, but given his is signed through 2030, I suspect he’s going to stick around.

The Mariners open a three-game series against the Astros Seattle trailing Houston by five games. One Astros win in the series seals their division championship. Bryce Miller takes on Hunter . Miller owns a 1.54 ERA over his last eight starts, but only a 3-1 record. Brown pitched well against Seattle this season with 1.65 ERA in three starts, and no home runs allowed in 16 1/3 innings.

The Giants visit the Diamondbacks, with Arizona still having to contend with pushes by the Mets and the Braves for the last two slots. Hayden Birdsong battle Eduardo Rodriguez. In rookie year, Birdsong limited power, but walked a ton of batters for an opposition .332 OBP. Rodriguez make his ninth start of the season and owns a 5.09 ERA. He’s been knocked around at home, with a .526 slugging percentage allowed in Phoenix.

Enjoy!

September 2, 2024

Games of the Day

The Diamondbacks attempt to salvage the four game series hosting the Dodgers with a split as Arizona trails Los Angeles by five games. Jack Flaherty takes on Eduardo Rodriguez. Flaherty stands 3-1 for the Dodgers in five starts. He does not go deep into games, however, and he does have a weakness for giving up the longball, with six homers allowed in 28 1/3 innings. Rodriguez makes his fifth start for the Diamondbacks. Both his K and BB rate are low, so a good contact team like the Dodgers should be able to put the ball in play against him.

Logan Gilbert and Osvaldo Bido take the mound as the Mariners visit the Athletics. Gilbert’s 3.09 ERA is lower than each of his previous two season in which he won 13 games. He’s 7-10 this season. Seattle is a fairly low scoring team at 3.97 runs per game, but that drops to 3.56 runs per game in Gilbert’s starts. The A’s are going out on a strong note, 22-17 since the All-Star Break. Bido stands 4-2 with a 3.03 ERA in that stretch. He allowed just two home runs in 38 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

August 8, 2023

Games of the Day

Sonny Gray faces Eduardo Rodriguez as the Twins battle the Tigers. Gray allowed just five home runs this season, owning the lowest HR/9 IP in the majors among those with 100 IP. Rodriguez owns a 2.96 ERA, and turned down a trade to the Dodgers to remain close to home. He allowed just eight home runs in 94 1/3 innings.

The Blue Jays take on the Indians with Yusei Kikuchi taking the hill against Tanner Bibee. Kikuchi gives up plenty of home runs, but most of the power against him comes with the bases empty. Batters slug .506 against him with none on, .352 with runners on base. The rookie Bibee owns a 3.14 ERA. He is 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA at home. He allowed just one of his ten home runs in Cleveland.

Enjoy!

May 4, 2023

Games of the Day

Justin Verlander makes his Mets debut as he takes on his former team, the Tigers, and Eduardo Rodriguez. After leaving Detroit, Verlander pitched extremely well for the Astros, despite missing time for injuries. He posted a 61-19 record, with a 2.26 ERA in 102 starts. Rodriguez brings a 2.21 ERA into the game. He allowed just 25 hits in 36 2/3 innings. Given that his three-true outcomes have not changed much, I suspect the defense behind him is playing better.

The Rays go for a sweep of the Pirates as Pittsburgh sends Vince Velasquez against Zach Eflin. Velasquez never posted a season ERA under four, but is off to a good start with a 3.06 ERA in 2023. He’s limited hits without a lot of strikeouts, as opponents hit .211/.287/.317 against him this year. Eflin is showing great control, with just three walks allowed in his first 21 innings.

All games are early today, the latest start 6:10 EDT in Boston. It’s a good day to take the afternoon off and enjoy the games!

April 23, 2023

Rodriguez Perfect

In the battle of Rogriguez’s in Baltimore, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Tigers just completed six perfect innings. He’s thrown 71 pitches in striking out four batters. Grayson Rodriguez of the Orioles pitched five shutout innings, and the game remains scoreless.

Update: Ryan Mountcastle singes with two out in the seventh inning to break up the perfect game.

April 18, 2023

Gaining on the Guardians

The Tigers get excellent pitching on the day as they take two one-run games from the Guardians 4-3 in game one and 1-0 in game two. The bullpen gave them four scoreless innings in the first game, which allowed the offense to come back from a 3-1 deficit, Kerry Carpenter hitting a walk-off home run as he tries to become a superstar.

In game two, Eduardo Rodriguez, pitched eight scoreless innings, striking out 10 and walking none. Rodriguez had been a bit disappointing since joining the Tigers, 5-7 with a 4.12 ERA. Today’s game set his high mark for both innings and Ks with Detroit. Riley Greene drove in the only run of the game with a homer. He now has two triples and two homers, but no doubles.

The Tigers are now just one game behind the Guardians in the AL Central. With the White Sox losing game one of their doubleheader with Philadelphia, the Tigers will gain at least a game on Chicago as well.

September 1, 2022

Games of the Day

Logan Gilbert leads the Mariners against the Tigers and Eduardo Rodriguez. Gilbert stands 6-1 with a 3.15 ERA on the road, allowing just 77 hits in 85 2/3 innings. Rodriguez missed three months on the restricted list, but in his two starts back with Detroit he allowed one run in eleven innings.

The Dodgers and Mets play a late afternoon game as Clayton Kershaw returns from the illjured list to face Chris Bassitt. While Kershaw is not as effective as in his prime, his ERA since 2018 is still really, really, really good. Bassitt is near the top of that list as well, mostly due to his ability to keep the ball in the park.

Finally, the Brewers visit the Diamondbacks with Brandon Woodruff battling Merrill Kelly. Woodruff comes into the game with 100 more strikeouts than walks, and 41 more strikeouts than hits. Kelly is at about the same number of innings as his 2021 total, dropping his home runs allowed from 21 to 10. That helped lower his ERA to 2.97 from 4.44.

Enjoy!

June 13, 2022

Rodriguez Away

PItcher Eduardo Rodriguez left the Tigers:

Starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez has informed the Detroit Tigers he won’t rejoin the club at this time for personal matters and has been placed on the restricted list “until further notice,” the team announced Monday.
The left-hander, who signed as a free agent with the Tigers last offseason, has been on the injured list since May 22 with a strain of his left ribcage.
ESPN.com

I hope whatever problem he is facing is not too serious.

April 8, 2022

Games of the Day

The second set of opening day games takes place on Friday, starting with the rained out Boston Red Sox visiting the New York Yankees. Nathan Eovaldi faces Gerrit Cole. Eovaldi pitched a strange 2021 season. His three-true outcomes were outstanding, but his ERA was not. There’s not a clear reason for that, but he did allow 16 RBI in 25 situations with a man on third and less than two out. Cole simply blew batters away in 2021, with 243 K in 181 1/3 innings. He is 23-11 since joining the Yankees at the start of 2020 season.

A few minutes later, the White Sox face the Tigers in Detroit with Lucas Giolito battling Eduardo Rodriguez. Giolito kicked up his strikeout game in 2019, and in the last three seasons ranks fourth in the majors in K per 9 IP behind Cole, Max Scherzer, and Robbie Ray. The top four are all in action on Friday. Rodriguez is a reverse lefty, where left-handed batters have better success against him than righties. The White Sox bat two switch hitters, so he may give them trouble.

The Mariners and Twins, also postponed from Thursday, finally get started in Minnesota. Ray takes the hill for Seattle against rookie Joe Ryan. The big debut for the Mariners will be Julio Rodriguez, seasonal age 21. He slashed .331/.412/.543 in three minor league seasons. The Mariners hope he will at least be their second best player who’s nickname sounds like A-Rod. Ryan is a more mature rookie, seasonal age 26. He posted three true outcomes in the minors of 0.8 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 13.0 K per nine.

The Dodgers make the climb to Colorado to face the Rockies, with Walker Buehler taking on Kyle Freeland. Buehler simply does everything well for a great team, leading to a career 40-13 record in 103 games and 94 starts. Freeland is coming off his second straight season with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP.

Finally, the revamped Rangers visit the powerhouse Blue Jays as opening day returns to Canada for the first time since 2019. Jon Gray faces Jose Berrios. Gray makes his first start away from the Rockies, where he 22-31 with a 4.65 ERA on the road, but 31-18 with a 4.54 ERA at home. We’ll see how he does pitching most of his games at lower altitudes. Berrios’s weakness is home runs allowed, but it’s not a fatal weakness. The Blue Jays should be able to generate more power than Berrios allows.

Enjoy!

November 15, 2021

Tigers Pounce

The Tigers decided not to wait to see what happens with the new collective bargaining agreement. They dove into the free agent pool to sign pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez. He signs five-year, $77 million deal and can opt out after two seasons.

The first major free-agent deal of this offseason continues the tone the Tigers have set for what is expected to be a busy stretch as they move out of their rebuilding phase and toward contention. Though shortstop has been the headline target in Detroit since before the season ended, general manager Al Avila noted starting pitcher as just as big of a need. Detroit began the offseason by acquiring catcher Tucker Barnhart from the Reds shortly after the World Series.
MLB.com

Rodriguez is a left-handed pitcher that does well against right-handed batters. He held right-handed batters to a .249/.314/.398 slash line in his career, and he sees righties about 80% of the time. The few lefties he faced produced a better slash line. It’s a nice move by the Tigers.

October 18, 2021

Rodriguez Out

Hansel Robles comes out to pitch for the Red Sox in the top of the seventh inning, ending the night of Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez walked none and struck out seven in his six innings of work, his only mistake a three-run homer to Kyle Tucker. Given that the score was 9-0 at the time, it was good he was going after the Houston batters. The Red Sox bullpen should be in good shape for the next two games of the series. He leaves with an 11-3 Boston lead.

October 18, 2021

Perfect First

Both Eduardo Rodriguez of the Red Sox and Jose Urquidy of the Astros retire the side in order in their first innings. Rodriguez strikes out one, Urquidy gets two infield pop ups. Amazingly, Kike Hernandez does not get a hit.

Game three of the ALCS is underway.

Update: Rodriguez impressively strikes out the three batters he faces in the second. He looks dominant tonight.

October 18, 2021

Playoffs Today

The ALCS moves to Boston as the Astros send Jose Urquidy against the Red Sox and Eduardo Rodriguez. Urquidy makes his 2021 post-season debut. In 25 2/3 post-season innings he owns a 2.81 ERA. He did allow five home runs, but they were all solo shots. Opponents are 1 for 17 against him with runners in scoring position in that time.

Rodriguez owns a 7.02 post-season ERA, mostly due to wildness. He allowed 12 hits in 16 2/3 innings which is good, but he also allowed seven walks. His record against the Astros in the post-season is not good, pitching just one inning in three relief appearances, and allowing two runs.

Enjoy!

October 11, 2021

Playoffs Today

It’s a Columbus Day extravaganza as all four league division series are in action. The Brewers and Braves kick off the day in Atlanta at 1 PM EDT with Freddy Peralta facing Ian Anderson. Peralta is another pitcher with a great ERA who failed to qualify for the ERA rankings. Part of that was making 27 starts, but the bigger part of that was averaging just 5 1/3 inning per start. It strike me that some ERAs are getting better due to pitchers being removed before the point of failure, but of course that makes those starters less valuable overall. There’s a big difference between getting sixteen out a game and twenty one outs a game. Anderson handled the Brewers well in his only start against them this season, allowing two hits and four walks in six innings.

The Astros play second match point against the White Sox with Jose Urquidy taking on Carlos Rodon. Urquidy at seasonal age 26 reached 100 MLB innings for the first time in his career. He showed great control, striking out 90 in 107 innings with just 19 walks. Rodon, in his first outstanding season in the majors, improved all dimensions of the three-true outcomes. He did this but relying much more on his four-seam fastball. That seems to have made his slider more effective. Game time is 3:30 PM EDT.

Collin McHugh tries to stave off the Red Sox and elimination for the Rays. Eduardo Rodriguez stands in the way for Boston. McHugh serves as an opener, pitching twelve innings in his seven starts. He may be the best out there, as he allowed no runs, six hits, and one walk while striking out twelve. As a reliever he allowed a 1.90 ERA in 52 innings. Rodriguez struck out 24 Rays and walked just three in 2021, but still allowed 13 runs in 24 innings. Game time is 7 PM EDT.

The Giants and Dodgers move south to Los Angeles for game three of their LDS. Former Dodgers starter Alex Wood takes on the newest Dodgers starter Max Scherzer. Wood experience against the Dodgers looks like Rodriguez against the Rays. Wood struck out 22 and walked three in 17 innings, but allowed nine runs. Scherzer is undefeated since joining Los Angeles, posting a 1.98 ERA in eleven starts covering 68 1/3 innings. Game time is 9 PM EDT.

Enjoy!

October 7, 2021

Playoffs Today

The White Sox and Astros kick off the ALDS at 4 PM EDT with the tale of a lot of Lances. Lance Lynn of the White Sox faces Lance McCullers Jr.of the Astros. This is the first time they faced each other.

Lynn posted a 2.69 ERA on the season, the best in the AL at the 157 inning level. Unfortunately, he needed 162 innings to qualify for the title. An August knee injury and short stints in general prevented Lynn from reaching that level. Lynn shut down batters with a high strikeout rate, punching out 176 batters. That led to allowing just 123 hits for a .209/.267/.338 opponents batting line. The Astros did collect eight hits in four innings against him despite striking out six times. Houston is good at putting the ball in play, so we’ll see which side wins the joust.

McCullers posted a biblical 3.16 ERA and did qualify for the ERA title by 1/3 of an inning. Like Lynn, McCullers uses a very high strikeout rate to limit hits. Unlike Lynn, McCullers issuses a high number of walks. His 4.21 walks per 9 IP is the highest in the majors among ERA qualifiers. The White Sox will take the walk, as they collect 586 on the season, the second highest total for batters in the AL. He did walk six White Sox batters in thirteen innings, but allowed just four this and three runs.

At 8 PM EDT, the Red Sox and Rays begin their ALDS. Edurardo Rodriguez facing rookie Shane McClanahan. Rodriguez’s high strikeout rate did not lead to few hits against him. In 157 1/3 innings he K’d 185 but allowed 172 hits. He allowed eight of his eleven home runs with men on base, helping him to a 4.74 ERA. Note that the Rays super power is hitting home runs with men on base.

McClanahan posted a fine rookie season, and gets the start in the opening game of the Rays playoff push. He is no stranger to the playoffs, however, having made his debut in the 2020 LDS, making four appearances in the 2020 playoffs. He faced the Red Sox three times this season, pitching well in two of the three appearances.

Enjoy!

September 26, 2021

Games of the Day

Toronto needs a win gain in the AL Wild Card race as they send Alek Manoah against the Twins and Griffin Jax, a battle to true rookies. Control issues led to a 4.01 ERA for Manoah in September as he walked 12 batters in 24 2/3 innings. Control represents Jax’s strong point, as he walked 27 batters in 72 innings. Unfortunately, he also allowed 21 home runs. Forty two of the seventy five hits against him went for extra bases.

The Mariners also try to stay relevant in the wild card race as Marco Gonzales faces Shohei Ohtani of the Angels. Gonzales owns an 8-0 record in his last thirteen starts, posting a 2.95 ERA. He allows his defense to help, with 5.9 K per 9 IP and 1.9 BB per 9 IP. Despite lots of balls in play, he allowed just 64 hits in 79 1/3 innings. Ohtani pitched great in Anaheim, 6-0 with a 2.02 ERA versus 3-2 witha 5.02 ERA on the road. Looking at his numbers, it may just be bad luck away from home.

If the Mariners lose, the Astros can clinch the AL West with a win over the Athletics. Jake Odorizzi battles Paul Blackburn. Odorizzi does not go deep in games. In three September starts he owns a 2.38 ERA, but lasted just 11 1/3 innings. Blackburn allowed just eight walks in his 31 1/3 innings this season, but also gave up five home runs.

Finally, the Yankees go for a sweep of the Red Sox at Fenway as Jordan Montgomery takes on Eduardo Rodriguez. Montgomery makes his fifth start of the season against Boston. He’s 0-2 with a 3.63 ERA but good three-true outcomes. Rodriguez also make his fifth start in opposition, and is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA against New York, with better three-true outcomes.

Enjoy!

September 13, 2021

Games of the Day

The Rays send Ryan Yarbrough against the Blue Jays and Alek Manoah. Yarbrough stands 8-4 on the season despite a 4.90 ERA. He is a low K, low BB pitcher, which leads to a ton of hits. A high number of those left the yard. Manoah is 3-0 in seven home starts in his rookie season, owning a 2.97 ERA.

It’s a battle of 40-year-olds in New York as the Cardinals send Adam Wainwright against the Mets and Rich Hill. If this proves to be Wainwright’s last season, he is going out with a bang. He should reach 200 innings for the first time since 2014, and he’s getting there with a 2.98 ERA. He’s not just eating innings, he’s spitting out opponents. Hill owns a 3.82 ERA between the Red Sox and the Mets. He’s allowed just 117 hits in 139 innings.

The Red Sox make their way to Seattle to face the Mariners in an AL Wild Card battle. Eduardo Rodriguez takes on Logan Gilbert. Both own ERAs over 5.00. Rodriguez’s high strikeout rate does not mean he’s tough to hit, as he allowed 150 safeties in 136 1/3 innings. Gilbert’s high ERA comes from 14 home runs in 95 1/3 innings and a .271 BA allowed with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy!

August 10, 2021

Games of the Day

The Dodgers and Phillies meet in the City of Brotherly Love with Max Scherzer taking on Aaron Nola. Scherzer experience a great deal of success at Citizens Bank Park, 8-1 with a 2.33 ERA in eleven appearances there. Nola is having an unusual year, in that his strikeout and walk rates are great, but he’s allowing a high number of hits. His ERA is about a run higher than his FIP, indicating either bad luck or bad defense behind him.

The Rays come to Boston with a four game lead over the Red Sox in the AL East. Luis Patino faces Eduardo Rodriguez. Patino has 54 MLB innings under his belt. While he does strike out a good number of batters, his high walk rate and high home run rate should hurt him at Fenway. Rodriguez saw his ERA jump a run and a half compared to the previous two seasons. Like Nola, his hits allows seem too high for his strikeout rate. His ERA is about two runs higher than his FIP, with a .367 opposition BABIP. His StatCast Hard Hit % is the highest of his career.

Enjoy!

June 22, 2021

Games of the Day

Washington trails the second place Phillies in the NL East by one game as Max Scherzer faces Zack Wheeler. Scherzer missed a start due to a minor injury. In nine starts in Philadelphia, Scherzer is 6-1 with a 2.45 ERA, walking just 1.7 batters per nine IP. Wheeler is not so lucky, 6-12 with a 4.44 ERA in 22 starts against Washington. He struck out just 7.9 batters per nine against the division rival.

The Red Sox lead the Rays by 1/2 game in the AL East as the team meet in Florida. Eduardo Rodriguez faces Andrew Kittredge. The big news in this game, however, is the premier of Wander Franco, the young infield prospect for the Rays. He comes to the majors at seasonal age 20 after hitting .315/.367/.586 at AAA. That’s at an age where many players are still in A Ball. The teams meet for just the second time this year, as Boston swept the first three-game series in April.

Enjoy!

June 10, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

0.340 — Michael Brantley batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.330 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.324 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.309 — Tim Anderson batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.307 — Harold Castro batting against Justus Sheffield.
0.304 — Starling Marte batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
0.303 — Jose Altuve batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.302 — Salvador Perez batting against Frankie Montas.
0.301 — Carlos Correa batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.301 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Zack Greinke.

The Astros appear to matchup well against Boston starter Rodriguez. Rodriguez owns the strange combination of a high strikeout rate, 10.09 batters per 9 IP, with an extremely hit BABIP .369. He also allows a good number of home runs. It seems batters either miss a pitch or hit it real hard.

Here are the NN picks:

0.340, 0.745 — Michael Brantley batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.309, 0.739 — Tim Anderson batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.330, 0.726 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.324, 0.724 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.301, 0.722 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Zack Greinke.
0.307, 0.716 — Harold Castro batting against Justus Sheffield.
0.284, 0.715 — Trea Turner batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.304, 0.705 — Starling Marte batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
0.297, 0.705 — Hanser Alberto batting against Frankie Montas.
0.284, 0.701 — Alex Verdugo batting against Zack Greinke.

Brantley came off the illjured list on 6/8, and is four for nine with a double and no strikeouts in the two games he played. He is the unanimous first pick, with Gurriel the consensus double down choice. This season, Gurriel struck out just twenty two times in 239 plate appearances. He puts the ball in play, which is tantamount to collecting hits.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 31, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

1 Reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

0.329 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.314 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.310 — Jose Altuve batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.309 — Jared Walsh batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.302 — David Fletcher batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.302 — Tim Anderson batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.299 — Alex Bregman batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.290 — Carlos Correa batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.286 — Buster Posey batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.286 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jose Urquidy.

It looks like a good day to be in the Astros starting lineup. Rodriguez owns a BABIP of .368 this season, and a .304 mark for his career. He does strikeout a ton of batters, but if the Astros make contact, good things are likely to happen.

Here are the NN picks:

0.302, 0.733 — Tim Anderson batting against Cal Quantrill.
0.329, 0.726 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.282, 0.714 — Trea Turner batting against Charlie Morton.
0.285, 0.714 — Nick Castellanos batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.286, 0.711 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jose Urquidy.
0.314, 0.701 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.276, 0.700 — Jesse Winker batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.302, 0.698 — David Fletcher batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.238, 0.696 — Tim Anderson batting against Triston McKenzie.
0.310, 0.696 — Jose Altuve batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.

Note that the White Sox and Indians play a doubleheader, the Indians second doubleheader in a row. Also, Quantrill start is not official, so it may be wise to avoid Anderson today. Yordan Alvarez is the consensus first pick. Anderson against Quantrill is the consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 20, 2021

Games of the Day

The Cardinals take on the Nationals with Adam Wainwright facing Patrick Corbin. It’s not often one sees two good pitchers facing each other with terrible ERAs. Wainwright comes into the game with a convenient 7.11 mark, while Corbin nearly triples that with a 21.32 ERA. Starting pitching is a problem for both teams, as the Cardinals staff owns the lowest average game score in the majors, while the Nationals are fourth lowest. Neither staff is going very deep in games, tending to get hammered early.

Toronto visits Boston with Hyun Jin Ryu taking on Eduardo Rodriguez. Since the start of the 2018 season, Ryu ranks second in ERA in the majors with a 2.28 mark. He’s off to another good start with a 1.89 ERA. Rodriguez is 2-0, having walked just one batter in his first ten innings after missing the 2020 season due to COVID-19 compications.

Enjoy!

April 8, 2021

Games of the Day

Eduardo Rodriguez of the Red Sox returns from his dead arm to make his 2021 debut in Baltimore against Matt Harvey. Rodriguez missed 2020 due to heart problems as a result of a COVID-19 infection. The good news is that he recovered from that side effect, and how we’ll see how well he pitches in a meaningful game. Harvey makes his second start of the season and second against the Red Sox. He walked one and struck out four in 4 2/3 innings last Saturday, and did a good job of keeping the Red Sox off balance.

Griffin Canning makes his 2020 debut for the Angels as they visit the Blue Jays playing at home in Florida. Ross Stripling takes the mound for Toronto. Canning for his career owns a reverse platoon split. He’s a right-hander who is much better against left-handed batters. Stripling allowed three runs in 3 1/3 innings in his first start. He struck out five of the 19 batters he faced, but seven of the 12 batters who put the bat on the ball got hits against him.

Enjoy!

August 1, 2020

Brave Heart

Eduardo Rodriguez of the Red Sox will miss the 2020 season due to heart complications from his COVID-19 infection.

“That’s the most important part of your body, so when you hear that, the first time I hear it was kind of scared a little,” Rodriguez said last Sunday. “Now that I know what it is, it’s still scary, but I know exactly what it is. Just talk to my mom, talk to my wife, they know what I have and everything. Now we just gotta take the rest. That’s hard, but you gotta take a rest.”
ESPN.com

Here’s wishing Rodriguez a speedy recovery.

July 26, 2020

It’s Not Just Breathing

Eduardo Rodriguez of the Red Sox appears to have a heart issue related to his COVID-19 infection:

The 27-year-old left-hander tested positive for COVID-19 before the start of summer camp, but he was cleared and returned to workouts on July 18. He hasn’t had another positive coronavirus test, but he said an MRI revealed a condition called myocarditis that the team’s medical staff felt was serious enough to shut him down for at least a week.
He has been restricted from baseball activities since Thursday.
“That’s why the doctors tell me to just take a week, just rest, don’t let your heart get too much heart rate,” he said. “If it goes away, just go back to work.”
ESPN.com

Here’s wishing him a quick recovery.

May 26, 2019

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.313 — Michael Brantley batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.300 — Nolan Arenado batting against David Hess.
0.299 — Cody Bellinger batting against Chris Archer.
0.299 — Jean Segura batting against Brandon Woodruff.
0.296 — Chad Pinder batting against Mike Leake.
0.294 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Mike Leake.
0.293 — Josh Reddick batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.291 — Marcus Semien batting against Mike Leake.
0.290 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.289 — Joshua Phegley batting against Mike Leake.

Although not reflected in the calculation here, Rodriguez gets hammered on the road this season, allowing a .333 BA and six of his seven home runs opposition home runs.

Here are the neural network picks:

0.313, 0.736 — Michael Brantley batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.300, 0.730 — Nolan Arenado batting against David Hess.
0.299, 0.729 — Jean Segura batting against Brandon Woodruff.
0.299, 0.719 — Cody Bellinger batting against Chris Archer.
0.287, 0.714 — Javier Baez batting against Tanner Roark.
0.283, 0.713 — Charlie Blackmon batting against David Hess.
0.290, 0.713 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.287, 0.710 — Elvis Andrus batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.275, 0.708 — Jorge Polanco batting against Dylan Covey.
0.280, 0.706 — Christian Yelich batting against Zach Eflin.

Once again, there is agreement at the top of the list with Brantley first and Arenado second.

Note also that a sudden uptick in hits occurred in the last few days. The long-term trend for hit average among non-pitchers is .230, and I use the current MLB hit average as a parameter to the model (if overall hits are plentiful, a hit in general is more likely). That parameter ran at .220-.221 for most of the season. Over the last few days it rose to .223. Maybe players just aren’t hitting home runs anymore.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

October 27, 2018

Playoffs Today

The Red Sox announded that Eduardo Rodriguez will start Saturday night in game four against the Dodgers and Rich Hill. Rodriguez pitched 4 1/3 innings in the 2018 post-season so far, striking out five. He did allow two hits and three walks, one of those a home run. He threw six pitches last night, but may be the most rested Red Sox starter. Hill is one of the few Dodgers who did not get into the game Friday night. He has been wild in the 2018 post season, striking out 10 in 10 1/3 innings, but walking nine. The Boston batters will be happy to take walks against him. Amazingly, he allowed eight hits to go with the nine walks, but only three runs. The opposition is just 2 for 12 with runners in scoring position, and seven of the eight hits against him have gone for singles.

Enjoy!

September 20, 2018

Games of the Day

The Angels finish their series in Oakland as the Athletics try to hold off the red hot Rays. Matt Shoemaker takes on Edwin Jackson. Shoemaker cobbled together a 2-1 record in four starts as he works his way back from injury. Jackson threw 7 1/3 shutout innings against the Angels the first time he faced them this season.

The Red Sox try for a third time to clinch the AL East against the Yankees with Eduardo Rodriguez facing Masahiro Tanaka. The two have very similar ERAs. Their walk rates are about the same, but Rodriguez does a better job with recording strikeouts and preventing home runs. Tanaka allowed just one home run in his last 40 innings, however, helping him to a 1.80 ERA in that time.

Enjoy!

September 8, 2018

Games of the Day

Charlie Morton takes on Eduardo Rodriguez as the Astros continue their series with the Red Sox. Morton owns a 27-10 record since joining the Astros after going 46-71 in the rest of his career. Rodriguez allowed just three of his 12 home runs at Fenway this season.

Walker Buehler and Kyle Freeland square off as the Dodgers and Rockies vie for first place in the NL West. The rookie Buehler struck out 115 batters in 104 2/3 innings while walking just 28. Freeland may deserve the NL Cy Young award for posting a 2.96 ERA while pitching 43% of his games at Coors Field.

Julio Teheran faces Clay Buchholz as the Braves and Diamondbacks battle in Arizona. Teheran allowed just 110 hits in 153 1/3 innings, but comes into the game with a 4.05 ERA. A high percentage of the hits against him went for extra bases, and a relatively high percentage of those came with men on base. Buchholz made 2/3 of his starts away from home this season, but is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA in Arizona.

Enjoy!

September 1, 2018

Games of the Day

The Red Sox and White Sox continue their series with Eduardo Rodriguez facing Carlos Rodon. Rodriguez gives up home runs on the road, with nine of his twelve allowed coming away from Fenway. Rodon owns a 1.71 ERA at home where he allowed just 11 of his 36 walks.

The Diamondbacks and Dodgers split the first two games of their series as Patrick Corbin and Clayton Kershaw join the battle for the NL West title. Corbin improved since the All-Star break, 4-1 in seven starts with just one home run allowed in 46 1/3 innings. Kershaw, too has been much more Kershaw like since the break, with a 3-1 record and a 1.85 ERA in seven starts. He allowed just three home runs and three walks in 48 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!