Tag Archives: Jair Jurrjens

July 4, 2014

Games of the Day

The Nationals continue their tradition of playing an 11 AM game on Independence Day with a tilt against the Cubs. Jason Hammel takes on Tanner Roark. The 31-year-old Hammel is someone the Cubs might be able to flip for prospects, as his 2.98 ERA is the best of his career for a single season. He did a good job this season of cutting down on his home runs allowed. Roark owns Nationals Park with a 1.59 ERA there this season. He keeps opponents power at bay in Washington with a .229/.293/.298 slash line allowed.

Roenis Elias and Chris Sale face off in Chicago as the Mariners visit the White Sox. Roenis pitches much better during the day, 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA in five starts this season. Unfortunately, this game is under the lights. Sale allowed just three home runs in 50 1/3 innings at home.

The Reds try to gain in the NL Central as they host the Brewers. Kyle Loshe takes on Alfredo Simon.

Yu Darvish brings the Rangers into New York to face Jonathon Niese and the Mets.

Finally, Clayton Kershaw puts his 28 concecutive scoreless inning streak on the line against the Rockies and Jair Jurrgens. Jurrjens makes his 2014 debut.

Enjoy!

April 24, 2012

Can’t Contain Kemp

Matt Kemp keeps on keeping on, going 2 for 3 with a walk as the Dodgers drubbed Atlanta 7-2. He was hardly the star as Juan Uribe had a 4 for 4 night with three RBI and six Dodgers in total collected at least two hits. Kemp, however, managed to raise his BA to .460 and his OBP to .514, something that’s not easy when your averages are that high. Matt would need to go 0 for 9 at this point to get back to the .400 level.

Jair Jurrjens continues to struggle for the Braves. He allowed five runs in three innings to raise his ERA to 9.37. The most disturbing thing is all three true outcomes are bad. He’s allowed five home run, ten walks and just eight strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings. The Braves sent him to the minors after the game to see if he can regain his all-star form.

September 17, 2011

Getting Ahead of the Themselves

I like this headline about the Braves:

Braves don’t expect to have Jair Jurrjens in NLDS

Of course, it’s possible without Jair down the stretch, the none of the Braves players will participate in the NLCS. Braves starters have been rather mediocre since Jurrjens’s injury.

August 17, 2011

Games of the Day

Arizona tries to make it two games in a row against the Phillies as they send Joe Saunders against Cliff Lee. The Phillies do not hit lefties well, and given Joe’s mastery of LHB, Charlie Manuel may want to stack his batting order with righties. If Lee issues two more walks, he will have doubled the number he walked all of last season. Of course, no one is going to complain too much about a walk rate of 1.8 per nine IP.

Matt Cain and Jair Jurrjens battle in Atlanta as Cain tries to stop the San Francisco free fall. While Matt’s record is just 9-9, the Giants are 14-11 in his starts. Jurrjens stands 7-1 at home this season with just two of his eleven home runs allowed coming in Atlanta.

Finally, rookie Nathan Eovaldi takes on Zack Greinke as the Brewers try to extend their winning streak to six games. Right now, two losses separate seven, six and five games streaks as the Brewers are 18-2 in their last 20 games. Eovaldi struck out 10 in 11 MLB innings so far, although he did walk six. Opponents managed just six hits against him. Greinke seems to be having his good and bad luck cancel out this season. His ERA is higher than it should be given his stats, but his record is better than it should be given his actual ERA. He’s the anti-2005 Kevin Millwood.

Enjoy!

July 17, 2011

Games of the Day

Jair Jurrjens

Jair Jurrjens leads the NL with a 1.87 ERA. Photo: Icon SMI

Washington gets a tough assignment as they send Tom Gorzelanny against the Braves and ERA lead Jair Jurrjens. Gorzelanny posts good walk and strikeout rates, but he’s allowed 14 home runs in just 77 2/3 innings. His 1.62 HR/9 IP is one of the worst rates in the majors. Jurrjens is tough to hit despite a low K rate, allowing just a .229 BA. Combined with a very low walk rate, opponents are getting on base against him at a .276 clip.

Texas goes for a sweep of the Mariners as Matt Harrison takes on Blake Beavan. Harrison has done very well in day games this season. He’s allowed one home run in 37 day time innings, nine in 66 2/3 night-time innings. His ERA in the afternoon is just 1.70. Beavan makes his third MLB start, the first two being of the quality variety. So far his strength lies in control, as he’s only walked two batters in 13 1/3 innings. That’s a big reason the two home runs he allowed were solo shots.

Enjoy!

July 1, 2011

Jair Puts a Lid On the Orioles

Jair Jurrjens took a no-hitter into the seventh and ends the game with a one-hit, one-walk, 4-0 complete game against the Orioles. Jurrjens becomes the first National League pitcher to reach eleven wins. He’s given up just two runs in his last three starts covering 20 1/3 innings. Unlike those previous two games, in which he was a bit wild, he walked one and struck out eight tonight. That lowers his ERA to 1.89.

June 25, 2011

Games of the Day

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I’m about to travel to Baltimore to see the Reds and Bronson Arroyo take on the Orioles and Brian Matusz, so a quick games of the day. There are a number of outstanding pitching match-ups this Saturday.

Jonathon Niese faces Alexi Ogando as the Mets take on Texas. Niese is having an excellent June, with 22 K and 5 BB in 25 2/3 innings. After giving up give home runs in April, Ogando allowed just three since the start of May.

Justin Masterson and Matt Cain battle in the Cleveland/San Francisco game. Both are pitching better than their records.

Joshua Collmenter pulls Justin Verlander as his foe when the Diamondbacks continue their series in Detroit. Both are nearly unhittable as opponents hit .189 against Josh and .181 against Verlander. This may be the highest probability we’ve seen this year for a double no-hitter.

Trevor Cahill and Cole Hamels meet in Philadelphia as both the Athletics and Phillies offense try to score against a starter.

Finally, Jair Jurrjens and Dustin Moseley pitch at PETCO as the Braves play the Padres. Jurrjens leads the NL in ERA at 2.11, walking just 18 batters in 89 2/3 innings. The Padres have scored one run or less in six of Dustin’s 14 starts, and given they are facing Jurrjens, Moseley may need to pitch a shutout to avoid a loss.

Enjoy!

June 19, 2011

Games of the Day

The Indians go for a sweep of the Pirates as Jeff Karstens faces Justin Masterson. Karstens brings a 2.70 ERA as a starter into the game. Despite pitching to contact, he gives a decently low BA of .252 when starting, but with few walks his OBP allowed stands at .280. His one weakness is home runs, allowing one about every seven innings. Like Karstens, Masterson owns a .500 record despite a good ERA. He achieves that by keeping the ball in the park with just three homers allowed in his 94.0 innings of work. The Pirates need a win to stay above .500.

Texas and Atlanta offers a great pitching match-up as Alexi Ogando takes on Jair Jurrjens. Alexi’s away ERA is about two runs higher than his home ERA, despite his slash lines being very close in both situations. He allows a .389 BA with men in scoring position away from Texas. Jurrjens leads the NL in ERA by 0.35 runs over his injured teammate, Tommy Hanson. He allows an impressive .215/.267/.281 slash line at home.

Justin Verlander keeps flirting with no-hitters as the Tigers finish their series against Colorado and Aaron Cook. In the seven starts since throwing the no-hitter, Justin’s opponents have posted a .182/.221/.276 slash line. That includes a .108 BA with men on base. Cook has yet to go six innings since returning from the disabled list, but he has not allowed a home run, either.

Finally, the White Sox and Diamondbacks send Phil Humber against Josh Collmenter. After five years and three teams, Humber found his groove with Chicago. He’s walking a batter about every four innings, and that helped bring his ERA below 3.00. Collmenter is walking a batter about every five innings. Despite a good but not great strikeout rate, opponents are hitting just .188 against Josh.

Enjoy!

June 14, 2011

Games of the Day

Cleveland and Detroit go head to head for first place in the AL Central as Justin Masterson faces Justin Verlander. Masterson pitched an excellent game against the Tigers on May 1st, walking two and striking out seven. He’s walked 27 batters on the season, but he’s also hit six, including two Tigers. Verlander faces Cleveland for the first time in 2011, and for his caeer holds a 5.11 ERA against the Tribe in 24 starts.

The Yankees host the first place Rangers as Alexi Ogando battles CC Sabathia. The undefeated Ogando is blowing away batters with 60 strikeouts and 18 walks, and an amazing .210 BABIP. Sabathia is one of four AL pitchers with 100 innings pitched so far in 2011. He’s doing a much better job of keeping the ball in the park this season with four home runs allowed, after giving up 20 in 327 2/3 innings in 2010.

Jonathon Niese takes on NL ERA leader Jair Jurrjens as the Mets visit the Braves. Niese had some trouble on the road this season, where his ERA stands at 4.46. It’s not clear why, as most of his home and road statistics are very similar. Jurrjens walks about 1 batter every seven innings, which helps keep batters off base, and it’s really tough to score when you can’t get on base.

Tampa Bay trails Boston by 4 1/2 games as Carl Crawford goes back to his old stomping grounds to face James Shields. Tim Wakefield gets the call for the Red Sox. Tim no longer strikes out many batters, a bit reason is ERA is close to five this season. Shields sports great strikeout and walk numbers, but he does give up the long ball, and Boston has hit 15 home runs in their last nine games. In fact, the team is hitting like a league MVP.

Finally, one-half game separates the Giants and the Diamondbacks as they meet in Arizona. Matt Cain visits Josh Collmenter. It’s a typical year for Cain, as he’s pitching better than his won-loss record. He does give up more hits on the road, despite very similar strikeout numbers compare to what he does in San Francisco. Collmenter is off to a great start with a 1.12 ERA. Opposing batters are just 2 for 20 against him with runners in scoring position.

Enjoy!

May 29, 2011

Games of the Day

The Rays try to earn a split with the Indians as Justin Masterson faces Jeremy Hellickson in Tampa Bay. Masterson sports a 1.65 ERA on the road this season, having not allowed a home run in 27 1/3 innings. Hellickson shows much better control at home, with 5 walks in 21 2/3 innings compared to 20 in 35 2/3 innings on the road.

The Giants and Brewers split two one-run games as Matt Cain takes on Yovani Gallardo in Milwaukee. Cain posts an extreme reverse platoon split this season with lefties earning a .191/.277/.275 slash line against him, righties .283/.327/.462. All five stolen base attempts against Matt succeeded. Gallaro found his strikeout pitch in May, with 36 K in 32 innings. He comes into his final start of the month with a 2.81 ERA for May.

The Cardinals and Rockies each won a blow out as they play the rubber game of their series in Colorado with Kyle Lohse battling Jhoulys Chacin. Lohse sports a 2.06 ERA thanks to a WHIP one half runner lower than his career average. He has yet to allow a home run on the road this season. Chacin allows a low .301 slugging percentage at home, with only 10 or the 29 hits against there going for extra bases.

Aces battle in game two in Detroit as Boston sends Josh Beckett against Justin Verlander. Beckett comes into this weekend game with a 0.60 May ERA, allowing just two runs in 30 innings. The 21 hits he allowed in the month are all singles. Verlander’s May included a no-hitter, and he has not walked a batter in his last two starts.

Finally, ESPN features the Red and Braves with Johnny Cueto facing Jair Jurrjens. After two outstanding starts right after returning from the disabled list, Cueto allowed six runs in 11 innings over his last two starts as his walks went up. Jurrjens leads the NL with a 1.56 ERA, having walked just nine in 57 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

May 24, 2011

Jurrjens in First

Jair Jurrjens shutout the Pirates for 7 2/3 innings as the Braves take the game 2-0. That performance lowers Jair’s ERA to 1.56, now best in the National League with Josh Johnson on the disabled list. Jurrjens allowed six hits, but walked just one and struck out four. Pittsburgh went zero for five with runners in scoring position, as Jair continues to shut opponents down in that situation. They are now 3 for 40.

May 24, 2011

Games of the Day

This one of those days with tons of great pitching match-ups, so it doesn’t look like a good day for offense. Toronto tries to make it two in a row against the Yankees as they send Ricky Romero against CC Sabathia. Romero is one of those pitchers whose luck evens out in the won-lost column. His ERA of 3.10 is better than his FIP due to a low BABIP, but his record of 4-4 is worse than you would expect from a pitcher with a low ERA. Sabathia’s overall number are excellent, but the Yankees have only won his starts when they score at least six runs.

The Reds try to end their six-game losing streak as they send Johnny Cueto against Vance Worley and the Phillies. Both pitchers are off to good starts since returning to the majors. Cueto allowed just 13 hits in 18 2/3 innings, helping him to a 1.45 ERA. Worley won both his starts since moving out of the bullpen, allowing just six hits in 12 innings.

The Braves send ace Jair Jurrjens against the greatly improved Charlie Morton and the Pirates. Jair stands second in ERA in the NL at 1.80 behind the injured Josh Johnson. He continues to build that ERA on great numbers with runners in scoring position, 3 for 35. Morton owns the same 5-1 record as Jurrjens, but with a 2.62 ERA. He walks almost as many as he strikes out, 26 BB and 29 K. That’s the biggest reason I see little hope of Morton keeping this up over a full season. He has cut down on his home runs allowed, however, which helps him get away with so many walks.

Finally, the second game of the Arizona/Colorado double header features Josh Collmenter and Jhoulys Chacin. Collmenter allowed just one walk in his first 26 innings as he vies to become the right-handed Cliff Lee. He combines that with a low hit total, 12, helping him to a 0.69 ERA. Chacin doesn’t seem bothered by the thin air at Coors, as he posts a 1.80 ERA in five starts there this season. He averages seven innings a start at home, too, saving the bullpen.

Enjoy!

May 19, 2011

Games of the Day

Pittsburgh and Cincinnati finish up their two-game series with James McDonald facing Johnny Cueto. McDonald is off to a poor start for obvious reasons, he walks a ton of batters and gives up a high number of home runs. It’s a deadly combination, especially playing in Cincinnati today. Cueto makes his third start of the season and has yet to allow an earned run, all three were unearned. Opponents are 2 for 17 against him with runners on base, but both hits came with runners in scoring position.

Dan Haren and Doug Fister battle as the Mariners go for a two-game sweep of the Angels. Haren comes into the game with a 1.93 ERA, third in the American League. He’s turned around his 2010 home run numbers, allowing three one-quarter of the way through the season after giving up 31 in 2010. Fister showed excellent control so far this season with 13 walks in 50 1/3 innings. He does put himself in trouble early, however, with a .423 OBP allowed to batters leading off an inning.

If the weather clears up, Boston may hold the best pitching match-up of the day as Justin Verlander and the Tigers face Josh Beckett. Verlander followed up his no-hitter by allowing two hits in eight innings. Over his last two starts, opponents are 2 for 52 with four walks and 11 K, but the two hits were a double and a triple. Beckett leads the AL in ERA at 1.75. In an odd coincidence, his opposition BA matches his ERA/10 at .175.

Finally, Jair Jurrjens and the Braves visit Josh Collmenter and the Diamondbacks. With his 1.66 ERA in 43 1/3 innings, Jurrjens needs three innings to move onto the NL leaderboard in the category. With both a low walk and hit rate, he keeps enough batters off base to make scoring difficult. The only home run he allowed was a solo shot. Collmenter is even more extreme than Jurrjens, with 10 hits and one walk allowed in 20 innings. He too has allowed one home run, a solo shot.

Enjoy!

May 14, 2011

Jair of the Dog

Jair Jurrjens just finished his fifth inning of work, and remains perfect. He struck out five so far and has thrown 70 pitches. The Braves lead the Phillies 2-0. Jurrjens came into the game with a .248 BA allowed, so he’s tough to hit in general.

Update: Jurrjens makes a kick save on the first batter of the sixth. The ball goes off his foot to Uggla, who makes the throw to get Wilson Valdez in the nick of time.

Update: Michael Martinez pinch hits for Joe Blanton and singles to right-center for the Phillies first hit of the game.

May 8, 2011

Games of the Day

The Yankees and Rangers play the rubber game of their series as CC Sabathia faces David Bush. Sabathia is coming off his worst start of 2011, but over all his strikeouts, walks, home runs allowed and ERA are all very good. He and the Yankees are out of sync, however, as CC hasn’t been able to turn his personal success into a winning record. CC seems to get in and out of trouble this season, but that’s because opponents are 21 for 49 with exactly one man on base, 5 for 33 with more than one man on. Bush makes just his second start of the season. He lasted three innings in his first, throwing 71 pitches but not allowing a run.

ESPN brings us a great pitching match-up for mothers day, with Jair Jurrjens battling Cole Hamels as the Braves and Phillies play for the series win. Jurrjens brings a 1.52 ERA in four starts to the table, having walked a batter once about every six innings. In addition, batters are just one for 24 against him with runners in scoring position. Over the previous three seasons, Cole average 24.8 home runs per 200 innings. This year, that’s down to 9.8 a 60% drop.

Enjoy!

May 2, 2011

Games of the Day

The Yankees visit Detroit with Bartolo Colon taking on Justin Verlander. The Tigers are one of the coldest teams in baseball right now, tied with Minnesota for longest current losing streak at six games. Colon is pitching like he did in his peak seasons of 2000 and 2001, with 26 strikeouts in 26 innings. He’s showing better control, however, with just six walks. He’s throwing his fastball with the same movement he did in 2009, but two miles an hour faster, and he’s getting it down in the strike zone.

Bartolo Colon fastball location 2009.

Bartolo Colon fastball location 2009. Heat map: Baseball Analytics.

Bartolo Colon fastball location 2011.

Bartolo Colon fastball location 2011. Heat map: Baseball Analytics.

Verlander is also pitching as well as ever except for the six home runs allowed. He’s giving up long balls at twice the rate of last year, and the Yankees are one of the most powerful teams in the majors.

In the stomach flu contest, Jered Weaver takes on Clay Buchholz as the Angels visit the Red Sox. I’ll quote from Sunday’s post on Weaver:

One key to Weaver’s success is getting the lead-off man in an inning. He’s faced the first batter in 47 innings, allowing three hits and two walks, one of the hits a home run.

He has not pitched well at Fenway in the past, but this isn’t the greatest offense Boston has put on the field, either. Buchholz’s ERA is a reflection of the high number of walks he issued and home runs he allowed. In 27 innings, he’s three short of the number he allowed last season in 173 2/3 innings.

Finally, Yovani Gallardo and Jair Jurrjens battle in Atlanta as the Brewers play the Braves. Gallardo is off to a rough start, bringing a 5.40 ERA into the game. He’s been particularly bad on the road, with a .370/.392/.609 opposition slash line. The good news is that his FIP is about a run and a half lower than his actual ERA, so I suspect he’ll turn around his poor April. Jurrjens has yet to allowed a hit with runners in scoring position, covering 17 at bats. He has walked three. That helps account for his 1.23 ERA

Enjoy!

Thanks to Baseball Analytics for the heat maps.

April 27, 2011

Long Jair

I was somewhat surprised to see Jair Jurrjens pitch a complete game against the Padres Tuesday night. The Braves held a big lead, 8-1 going into the bottom of the sixth. Given that Jair is making just his third start of the season due to injury, and that he spent a good part of 2010 on the disable list, letting him throw 114 pitches seem excessive. Normally, I love to see pitchers go the distance and not get babied too much, but Jair needs to show he’s not fragile before he gets extended. I guess three extra-inning games in the last five took a toll on the bullpen, but that’s why teams keep relievers at AAA.

The Braves beat the Padres 8-2.

April 26, 2011

Games of the Day

Seattle visits Detroit with the King on the mound as Felix Hernandez faces Phil Coke. He’s pitching about as well as in 2010 in terms of the three true outcomes, but his ERA is about a run higher as both his home runs allowed came with men on base and opponents are hitting well with runners in scoring position. Coke’s 2.75 ERA should give him a smile, but with 10 walks and nine strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings, I’m not sure how long that low number will last. K and BB numbers in parity is never a good sign for a pitcher. Either he’s walking too many, or not striking out enough batters.

Matt Cain leads the Giants into Pittsburgh to take on Charlie Morton and the Pirates. Cain is giving up a few extra hits this year, his BABIP at .280 compared to a career .266 mark. His ground ball rate is way up, to 47% from 37% for his career. As a fly ball pitcher who keeps the ball in the park, Matt doesn’t get a lot of balls finding holes in the infield. With more balls on the ground, more are getting through. Morton’s ERA improved greatly compared to 2010, but like Phil Coke, Charlie walks more batters than he strikes out. Don’t expect his ERA to stay low.

Jesse Litsch tries to help Toronto make it two in a row against Texas as he battles Matt Harrison. Jesse owns a huge platoon split so far this season, with right-handers hitting just .083 (2 for 24) while lefties touch him for a .356 BA (16 for 45). For his career those numbers are .249/.286 respectively. Harrison, a lefty, also shows a similar platoon split, but with right-handers getting most of the at bats and recording a .147 BA, it’s working to Matt’s advantage.

Finally, Jair Jurrjens tries to get the Braves back to winning as he takes on the Padres and Aaron Harang. He wasn’t slowed by his injury as he struck out 10 and walked just three since returning from his oblique strain. Harang seems reborn in San Diego. He allowed zero home runs so far, despite his highest fly ball rate since his rookie season. In the past, 10% of his fly balls left the park, but in PETCO those are turning into outs.

Enjoy!

April 21, 2011

Games of the Day

Clayton Kershaw

Clayton Kershaw tries to help the Dodgers to their second win in a row tonight. Photo: Icon SMI

The best games today take place on the west coast, starting with the Jair Jurrjens and the Braves facing Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. Jurrjens returned from an injury to pitch seven strong innings against the Mets on April 16th, allowing just two hits and no runs. He’s 3-1 against the Dodgers with a 3.38 for his career. Kershaw blows away batters, with 29 K in 24 1/3 innings. He is susceptible to the long ball, however, giving up five of his eight runs on three homers.

An energized Josh Beckett takes the Red Sox into Anaheim to battle Tyler Chatwood and the Angles. Home runs plagued Josh in 2010, but in 20 innings this season he’s yet to allow a ball to leave the park. The league is hitting just .147 against him with both lefties and righties hitting well below .200. Chatwood makes the third start of his career, and his 3.75 ERA looks better than his stats line. With six walks and three home runs in 12 innings pitched, his FIP stands at 6.80.

Finally, the Athletics travel to Seattle with Brandon McCarthy taking on Felix Hernandez. McCarthy may finally be maturing, as he walked just two and struck out 14 in his first 22 innings. His career K/BB stands at 1.8. Hernandez is off to a slow start in terms of ERA. His three true outcomes are good, although not quite as good as in 2010. He allowed a .313 BA with men on base so far, with seven of the eight extra base hits he allowed coming in that situation. Since extra base hits move runners a long way, giving them up with men on base is the worst time to do so.

Enjoy!

September 20, 2010

Games of the Day

The Yankees and Rays begin a four day battle to decide which team face the Rangers and which team faces the Twins in ALDS. It looks like the winner of the division gets the Rangers, while the wild card travels to Minnesota. There will also be a ceremony dedicating a monument to George Steinbrenner before the game. Matt Garza and Ivan Nova start. The Yankees knocked around Garza in two games against him this season. Matt showed great control, walking three and striking out 13 in 11 2/3 innings, but four home runs allowed led to ten earned runs. Nova did not fare well in his one start against the Rays, and home runs have been a problem for him in his brief time in the majors.

The Braves travel to Philadelphia for the start of six games between the contenders for the NL East crown over the last two weeks of the season. Atlanta is at once trying to maintain the 2 1/2 game wild card lead over the Padres while also attempting to catch the Phillies for best record in the National League and home field throughout the playoffs. Jair Jurrjens faces Cole Hamels. The starters are headed in different directions. Jurrjens made just one good start in his last five, posting a 7.09 ERA in that span. He’s allowed five home runs, two each in each of his last two starts. Hamels found his 2008 self in that same time period. He made five quality starts with an ERA of 0.76. He is totally in control with 39 K, seven walks and one home run allowed in 35 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

September 9, 2010

Games of the Day

The White Sox try to earn a split with the Tigers and gain 1/2 game on the Twins as Gavin Floyd faces Rick Porcello. Floyd posted a 4.20 ERA before the All-Star break and a 3.06 ERA since, but it’s not clear why. His walk and strikeout rates are comparable, and his home run rate is up. Opponents hit .292 against him with runners in scoring position before the break, .304 since. His lower ERA does not make sense. Procello showed great control once again, but his low strikeout rate means more balls in play and more hits.

The Cardinals send Adam Wainwright to the mound against Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens as St. Louis struggle to stay in the playoff race. St. Louis trails Atlanta by 6 1/2 games in the wild card race (they are six back in the NL Central). Wainwright is stuck on 17 wins as the Cardinals lost his last four starts, scoring a total of eight runs. Wainwright allowed 16 runs, 13 of them earned. Jurrjens is undefeated at home, 6-0 with a 2.15 ERA. His higher strikeout rate at home leads to a 19 point lower batting average than on the road with a lot less power.

Finally, the Giants and Padres start a four-game series in San Diego that will help determine the NL West winner. The two teams also meet for the last three games of the year in San Francisco. Matt Cain opposes Jon Garland in game one. Cain has been wild against the Padres this season, walking 12 batters in 18 2/3 innings, leading to a 4.34 ERA and an 0-2 record in three starts. Cain usually walks a batter every three innings. Garland pitches well in PETCO Park, where the home run dampening effects relieves him of a weakness. He’s allowed just five of his 15 home runs at home this season, pitching 12 2/3 more innings at home than on the road.

Enjoy!

September 4, 2010

Games of the Day

See yesterday’s post for my thoughts on the Danks/Buchholz matchup.

Colby Lewis and Carl Pavano square off in Minnesota as the Twins hold a 2 1/2 game lead for ALDS home field advantage. Lewis ranks fifth in the AL in strikeouts per nine innings at 8.78. This helped him to a .230 BA allowed. That goes down to .185 with runners in scoring position. Pavano is four wins away from a new single season high as he looks to top his 18-8 mark from 2004. Note that it took him almost five years to win another 18 games.

Two pitchers who should get more Cy Young attention then they will actually draw take the mound in Oakland as Jered Weaver faces Trevor Cahill. Weaver is extremely strong in two of the three legs of the pitching tripod, striking out more than nine batters per nine innings and walking a batter about every four innings. His home runs are about average. He does give up extra base stealing, as thieves are 24 for 28 against him. Cahill produces a low batting average, not due to his strike outs, but due to a great defense playing behind him and a high ground ball percentage.

Travis Wood tries to stop the Cardinals winning streak against the Reds as he takes on Cy Young candidate Adam Wainwright. Wood allowed six home runs this season, but with a .276 OBP allowed, five of those were solo shots. Wainwright is part of a tight group of pitchers battling for the NL ERA lead, three of whom are pitching today. Wainwright is in a place where he can gain ground, as he owns an 11-1 record with a 1.42 ERA in St. Louis.

The second pitcher going for the NL ERA crown is Roy Halladay, who hosts the Brewers and David Bush. The batting line against Bush would garner MVP votes in most years. Opponents post a .293/.352/.505 slash line, stealing 20 bases in 25 attempts. The Phillies won three of Halladay’s last five starts by a combined score of 12-11. The offense does not make it easy for Roy.

The “Dyn-O-Mite!!!” game of the day features two J.J.s as Jair Jurrjens faces Josh Johnson. Jurrjens high ERA is mostly from pitching injured early in the season. Since he’s returned he lowered both is walk and home run rate and posted a 6-1 record with a 3.76 ERA. Johnson is the third pitcher battling for the NL ERA title. Like Wainwright, he’s lights out at home with a 1.48 ERA.

Finally, Ted Lilly and Matt Cain battle in Los Angeles with the Dodgers trying to gain ground on the Giants. The trade for Lilly proved to be a good one as Ted is 5-1 with a 3.29 ERA, six walks and 36 strikeouts for the Dodgers. Unfortunately, he could not single handedly keep the Dodgers from dropping in the NL West. Cain has never won at Dodger Stadium. He holds an 0-2 record in six starts, despite a 3.31 ERA. He has been wild in the park, walking 5.0 batters per nine innings, four each in his last two starts there.

Enjoy!

August 20, 2010

Games of the Day

Derrek Lee gets to play his first game as the Braves first baseman playing the team he just left, the Chicago Cubs. He’ll face Ryan Dempster and help defend Jair Jurrjens. Control bothered Jurrjens before his stint on the disabled list, but he’s allowed 17 walks in 58 2/3 innings since rejoining the Braves. Dempster is as hot as the month of August, allowing just three earned runs during his last three starts, but six unearned runs.

The Seattle Mariners, 6-3 under their new manager, invade Yankee Stadium as Felix Hernandez faces A.J. Burnett. Since the start of July, Hernandez’s ERA stands at 1.87, but his record stands at 2-5. Part of that is poor defense, as eight of the 22 runs scored against him were unearned. A bigger part is poor run support. The Mariners only scored 16 runs in those nine games, eight of those in the first two of the sequence. Burnett’s pitching better lately, with four good efforts in his last five starts. When he keeps the ball in the park, he does well.

Finally, the Giants try to hold off the Cardinals in the NL Wild Card race as Madison Bumgarner takes on Jake Westbrook. Bumgarner’s excellent July has been followed by a poor August, a month that saw Madison’s strikeout rate fall below the critical 4.5 per nine innings. He K’d just 8 batters in his last 16 1/3 innings. Westbrook greatly improved his control since joining the Cardinals, walking just two in 19 innings.

Enjoy!

August 15, 2010

Home and Road

The Braves pound the Dodgers 13-1 as Jair Jurrjens pitches his third quality start in a row. This one was very high quality as he walked one while striking out seven over seven innings, throwing 71 of 101 pitches for strikes. He lowers his home ERA to 1.74.

Meanwhile, Vicente Padilla gave up eight runs in 4 1/3 innings on two walks, eight hits and a home run. That raises his road ERA to 6.21. This was a matchup that really favored the Braves, and that’s the way it turned out.

August 5, 2010

Games of the Day

The Giants move on to Atlanta in a battle of playoff contenders. If the post season started today, these teams would meet in the first round. The game features two young talents as Tim Lincecum faces Jair Jurrjens. The Giants are 16-6 when Tim starts, 5-2 when Tim doesn’t get a decision. So even though Lincecum could have won more games, he sets a great foundation for victories. Jurrjens’s ERA is much lower at home than on the road this season, 1.71 vs. 7.63. Both are based on a small sample of innings, as he spent most of the season on the disabled list. He strikes out more batters at home, leading to fewer hits in Atlanta.

The other good matchup of young pitchers takes place in Seattle where Tommy Hunter takes on Felix Hernandez. Hunter suffered his first loss of the season against the Angels his last time out, and was only the second time this season he failed to earn a quality start. Hernandez posted ten solid starts in a row, with a 1.93 ERA over that span. His lack of support left him with a 4-3 record, however.

Enjoy!

July 20, 2010

Recovering Braves

Jair Jurrjens and Jason Heyward each played well in the Braves 4-1 victory over the Padres. Heyward, in his fifth game back from his injury, went 3 for 4 with two doubles. That makes him six for 17 since returning. Jurrjens lasted seven innings, allowing one run while walking three and striking out seven. In his four starts since coming off the disabled list at the end of June, Jurrjens gave up one run three times.

July 20, 2010

Games of the Day

Alex Rodriguez

Alex Rodriguez after a home run at Dodger Stadium one of his 598 long balls. He sits two away from becoming the youngest player to reach 600 home runs. Photo: Icon SMI

The Alex Rodriguez home run watch is on as he sits at 598 career dingers. He’s hit multiple home runs in a game 55 times in his career. Only Sammy Sosa, with 62, has more multi-HR games since 1994, the year of Alex’s debut. He’ll try to reach the 600 milestone off Sean O’Sullivan of the Angels, in for the injured Scott Kazmir. O’Sullivan has allowed 12 home run in 58 2/3 major league innings.

The teams with the top two records in the National League meet in Atlanta as Wade LeBlanc and the Padres take on Jair Jurrjens and the Braves. LeBlanc allows a lot of home runs for a Padres pitcher. He may be even worse than his overall stats imply as he’s only pitched 1/3 of his innings on road, where his home run rate stands at 44.2 per 200 innings. Jurrjens appears to be pitching better since returning from his injury. His walk, strikeout and home run rates are all a little better, but his high ERA before the disabled list was mostly due to one bad start against these same Padres.

Out west, John Danks takes on Doug Fister as the White Sox visit the Mariners. Danks fared poorly on the road this year. At home, he’s struck out 59 and walked just 16, nearly a 4:1 ratio. On the road, he close to parity with 23 walks and just 32 strikeouts. Fister tries to reverse his recent slide. Since returning from the disabled list he allowed 29 hits in 20 1/3 innings as his low strikeout rate seems to be catching up to him.

Finally, the duel of the day takes place in Los Angeles where Tim Lincecum faces Clayton Kershaw. Tim has already allowed eight home runs on the season, having given up 11 and 10 in his previous two seasons. Twelve of those 21 came with the bases empty, but this season five of his eight have come with men on base. That’s one reason his ERA is up a bit this season. The Dodgers do give Tim a bit of trouble in LA as they’ve drawn 16 walks against him in 26 innings. Kershaw only faced the Giants three times in his career (once in relief) but struck out 22 batters in 15 innings, good for a 1.20 ERA.

Enjoy!

June 30, 2010

JJ Returns

Jair Jurrjens made a successful return after spending two months on the disabled list. He shut out the Nationals for five innings, then allowed the first three batters in the sixth to reach, and one of the inherited runners scored. He struck out six while walking two, so this goes down as a positive outing. He’s also in line to get the win as the Braves lead the Nationals 3-1 in the bottom of the sixth.

May 5, 2010

Jurrjens Down

The Braves place Jair Jurrjens on the disable list nearly a week after he suffered an injury:

Atlanta Braves right-hander Jair Jurrjens is headed to the 15-day disabled list because of a left hamstring strain.

He was off to a poor start, with a 6.38 ERA and was striking out batters at a lower rate and walking batters at a higher rate. That makes me wonder if he wasn’t hurt before that, and the hamstring finally went.

April 29, 2010

Losing More than the Game

The Braves fell to the Cardinals 10-4 Thursday afternoon, but lost one of their starting pitchers and a shortstop as well:

Starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens left with a strained left hamstring after the first inning and shortstop Yunel Escobar exited with a groin injury later in the Braves’ 10-4 series-finale loss Thursday afternoon against the St. Louis Cardinals

Jurrjens allowed a three-run homer by David Freese in the first inning and was replaced by reliever Kris Medlen to begin the second.

Escobar strained his left adductor muscle while fielding a grounder and throwing to first base in the seventh inning. After Troy Glaus pinch-hit for him in the eighth, Omar Infante moved from third base to shortstop and Eric Hinske from first to third.

Both Jurrjens and Escobar were off to a poor starts, so I wonder if these injuries were coming on for a while.

Rasmus, Freese and Molina took advantage of the Braves plight, combining to go seven for eight with four walks, two doubles, a home run, six runs and eight RBI.