Tag Archives: Cleveland Guardians

January 26, 2026

The Ramirez Deal

I was waiting for the Guardians deal with Jose Ramirez to be finalized. It happened over the weekend but just showed up on my feed.

BREAKING NEWS: Jose Ramirez is a Guardian for the long haul. The third baseman star has signed a new deal: 7-year, $175 million extension through the 2032 season.

In April, 2022, Ramirez and the Guardians agreed on a five-year, $124M contract extension.@z101digital
— Héctor Gómez (@hgomez27) January 24, 2026

It’s a terrific deal for Cleveland. I estimate Ramirez will post about 30 WAR over the next seven years, so it looks like the Guardians will pay a little under $6 million per WAR. That’s about half price for what Ramirez might get on the free agent market.

So now it’s time to win a championship. There are no excuses. Cleveland employees a great player at a low cost, and they need to use the money saved to surround him with talent to bring a championship to town after waiting nearly 80 years. Let’s see what they do.

October 2, 2025

RISPy Win

The Tigers beat the Guardians 6-3 Thursday afternoon to advance to the ALDS against the Seattle Mariners. Unlike Wednesday’s loss when Detroit squandered numerous opportunities to score, the team went five for12 with runners in scoring position. Five pitchers combined to allow just six hits and two walks, with two of the runs for Cleveland unearned.

I am not surprised by the outcome. When you take the entire season into account, Detroit was the better teams. And while the team’s collapse to second place was historic, the deeper the Tigers go in the post-season, the more it will be forgotten. MLB removed regular season tragedy with the expanded playoffs.

October 1, 2025

Power Win

The Guardians stayed alive by hitting three home runs in a 6-1 win over the Tigers. George Valera homered in the first inning for the first run, then with the game tied at one in the eighth, Brayan Rocchio hit a solo shot for the lead, and Bo Naylor added a three-run homer to seal the deal. The Guardians ranked 14th in Slugging Percentage and 13th in home runs in the AL in 2025.

The winner takes all on Thursday.

September 30, 2025

Defensive Letdown

The Tigers beat the Guardians 2-1 on a very well pitched game by Tarik Skubal and Cleveland fielding miscues leading to two unearned runs. Skubal gave the Tigers length, going 7 2/3 innings with 14 strikeouts, three hits and three walks.

The Guardians misplayed a single in the first into an extra base, setting up the first run of the game. In the seventh inning, Jhonkensy Noel gave the Tigers a present as he slipped off the back of the bag at first as he made the catch. That put runners at first and third with none out, but after a K, the Tigers scored the winning run on a squeeze play. Cleveland ranked tenth in the AL in defensive efficiency this season, and their defense cost them the game today.

September 29, 2025

Thoughts on the Wild Card Series

It’s tough to make predictions on a best of three series. The depth of a team doesn’t really come into play, except maybe in the bullpen. As we’ve seen many times, a playoff teams can easily win two games in a row.

Tigers at Guardians (1 PM EDT Series)

Detroit is a much better team than they showed down the stretch, and Cleveland is a much worse team than they showed down the stretch. The Guardians offense may be one of the worst to ever make the post season, ranking between 13th and 15th in runs/game, the three major averages, home runs hit, and BABIP. The only thing they did well was steal bases. The Tigers were middle of the road in everything including pitching. The Guardians excelled in run prevention, but almost all of that rested on keeping the ball in the park. Cleveland allows base runners, but the lack of home runs tends to keep them on base. The Tigers hitters ranked 5th in home runs, so if Cleveland stops those, they can win the series.

Padres at Cubs (3 PM EDT Series)

The Cubs score per game at a higher rate than the Padres. Both teams put batters on base at the same rate, but the Cubs produce more power to drive them around. The Padres are the best team in the NL in preventing runs, however, 3.83 per game. For them, its a combination of strikeouts and defensive efficiency to keep batters off base. (The Cubs are first in defensive efficiency, the Padres second.) They do allow a high rate of home runs that plays into a Cubs strength. If the wind is blowing out at Wrigley this week, that should favor Chicago.

Red Sox at Yankees (6 PM EDT Series)

Boston dominated this series during the regular season, Boston winning nine of the thirteen games. Offensively, Boston batters were much better finding holes with their balls in play. The Yankees were much better at putting the ball over the fence. That give the Yankees the edge on offense. The Red Sox pitching staff stood as the best in the AL in preventing home runs, and the Yankees pitchers did not allow many balls in play with a high K rate. So this series offers a very nice balancing of strengths. Surprisingly to me, the Yankees had a high defensive efficiency, which also helps to eliminate balls finding holes. It’s a toss up, although I do like the better home run teams in the playoff, because those shots can provide the difference in low scoring games.

Reds at Dodgers (9 PM EDT Series)

Overall, both teams look pretty even on the pitching side of the equation, and neither is that great overall. The front line starters for both teams are very good, however, so I would expect the games to be low scoring, at least through the first five or six innings. The teams are not evenly matched on offense. The Dodgers posted the highest runs per game in the NL, and the Reds finished eighth. Los Angeles finished at or near the top of the league in all the averages, while the Reds tended to rank eighth or ninth. I can see the Dodgers cruising to a sweep, but Hunter Greene could give Cincinnati a game one win, which would at least give the Reds a chance to get lucky.

We have four good matchup, this should be fun.

September 28, 2025

Foul Pole Win

The Cleveland Guardians were not out of comebacks even though they had already clinched the division championship. Down 5-3 in the eighth inning, Brayan Rocchio hit a sacrifice fly to tie the game. In the top of the tenth inning, Rowdy Tellez of the Rangers hit a three-run homer. In the bottom of the tenth, with a run in and two on, Rocchio comes up again and hits a 1-2 pitch that just kisses the foul pole in rightfield, and Cleveland wins the game 9-8. It was a perfect ending to an incredible season.

Cleveland was as many as 15 1/2 games behind Detroit for first place in the AL Central, as recently as the morning of July 9. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that is the largest deficit a team has overcome to finish first in its division (since 1969) or league (pre-1969). The 1914 Braves (15 games back) previously held the record.

The Guardians were as many as 11 games behind Detroit this month, on the morning of Sept. 5. That is the largest September deficit overcome to win a division (since 1969) or league (pre-1969), surpassing the 8 1/2-game deficit erased by the ’64 Cardinals. Cleveland won 17 of 19 from Sept. 5-24.
MLB.com

Congratulations to the Guardians! Maybe this is the year they end the World Series slump.

September 28, 2025

Detroit Falls

The Red Sox beat the Tigers 4-3, and that settles the AL Central and the last AL Wild Card position. No matter the outcome of the Cleveland game, the Guardians win the AL Central after an epic collapse by the Tigers. Detroit will travel to Cleveland for the wild card round. The Red Sox get the second wild card and will play the second place team in the AL East. It looks like it will be New York, as the Blue Jays lead the Rays 13-4 in the seventh inning, Alejandro Kirk driving in six runs on two homers and a double. The Yankees are leading the Orioles 3-2 in the ninth, but that win probably won’t matter.

September 28, 2025

Early Returns

The Tigers lead the Red Sox 3-1 in the top of the fourth, while the Rangers lead the Guardians 4-2 in the bottom of the third. A Tigers win and a Guardians loss gives the AL Central to Detroit, and the avoid the label of a terrible collapse.

September 28, 2025

Games of the Day

Six games Sunday afternoon impact the MLB Post-Season Bracket. The most important ones involve the Mets and the Reds, as one of those two teams will win the third Wild Card slot in the NL. All games start just after 3 PM EDT.

The Reds play at the Brewers, with Brady Singer facing Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee having locked up the top seed in the majors. If the Reds win, they get the playoff slot. Singer pitched well down the stretch, with a 2.53 ERA in his last eleven starts. We’ll see how many Milwaukee regulars play today.

The Mets must win and hope for a Reds loss to get the Wild Card slot. They face the Marlins, with Sean Manaea taking on Edward Cabrera. With 5.80 ERA and 13 home runs allowed in 59 innings, I suspect Manaea will be on a very short leash.

The AL East championship is up for grabs, with the Yankees and Blue Jays tied atop the division, and Toronto holding the tie breaker. The Blue Jays host the Rays with Ian Seymour visiting Kevin Gausman. The rookie Seymour holds a 2.85 ERA on the season in 53 2/3 innings. Gausman pitched better in the second half of the season with a 2.49 ERA in his last 12 starts.

The Yankees need a win and a Toronto loss, and they host the Orioles with Kyle Bradish taking on Luis Gil. Bradish in his career kept the ball in the park with a 0.89 HR per 9 IP. Gil allowed just three homers in 52 innings this season.

Finally, the Tigers face the Red Sox and the Rangers face the Guardians, with lots of different combinations of seedings possible.

If the Guardians win, they are the AL Central Champs.

If Detroit also wins, they are the second wild card seed as they hold the tie breaker against Boston and will play the first wild card seed. If Cleveland and Boston win, then the Red Sox play the other AL East wild card and the Tigers visit the Guardians.

If the Guardians lose and Detroit loses, the Guardians are the AL Central champs and host Detroit. Also, if the Guardians lose, the Red Sox get the second wild card seed on matter the outcome of their game against the Tigers.

If the Guardians lose and Detroit wins, the Tigers are AL Central champs and host the Guardians.

Enjoy!

September 27, 2025

Bochy Backfire

With the Rangers and Guardians tied at two in the bottom of the ninth, the Guardians draw a walk and hit a bloop single with two outs to put the winning run on third. With a lefthander on the mound, Bruce Bochy calls for the intentional walk to load the bases for left-handed batter C.J. Kayfus, who does not hit lefties well. Pitcher Robert Garcia then hits Kayfus with the second pitch of the PA, and the Guardians win 3-2. That clinches a playoff spot, and they have a 75% chance of winning the division with a win or a Tigers loss tomorrow.

A walk-off hit by pitch seems very appropriate to put a cap on one of the greatest comebacks of all time.

September 23, 2025

Guardians in First

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The Guardians beat the Tigers 5-2 Tuesday night, the teams now own the same winning percentage. The Guardians are effectively in first place alone, since the win clinches the tie-breaker for Cleveland. They need to play Detroit even the rest of the way to take the AL Central division title.

Cleveland pitchers recorded 19 strikeouts in the game, giving Detroit little chance of putting rallies together. They walked just two batters, an impressive pitching performance from top to bottom.

September 21, 2025

The AL Has a Playoff Team

The Blue Jays clinched the first playoff slot in the American League with an 8-5 win over the Royals. The article doesn’t explain it, but this is not a magic number win. The Guardians can still tie the Blue Jays, and the Guardians hold the tie breaker (intra division record). What is true is that due to the Tigers and Guardians playing each other, one of them will lose enough in that series to give Toronto the clinch.

September 21, 2025

Massive Tie Scenario

The probability of a massive six way tie for the AL Wild Card, AL Central, and AL West went down after Saturday’s games mostly due to the Red Sox winning. Detroit plays it’s last six games against the Guardians and Boston, so 89 wins is the highest total that’s possible for a tie. Here is how the teams would need to finish for that to happen.

Yankees 2-5
Mariners 3-4
Tigers 4-3
Red Sox 4-3
Guardians 5-2
Astros 5-2

That scenario comes in at a probability of 0.00011and the overall probability is 0.00013.

For today, the best outcomes for the tie to happen would be:

The Guardians defeat the Twins.
The Red Sox fall to the Rays.
The Orioles down the Yankees.
Detroit loses to the Braves.
The Astros emerge victorious over the Mariners.

Note that in a six-way tie, the Mariners hold the tie-breaker against the Astros, so they automatically become the AL West Champion. The Tigers and Guardians will determine the AL Central tie breaker in their three game series early this week. So a six-way tie is really a four-way tie for for three wild-card positions.

And while I have both the Red Sox and Tigers losing, those games can really go either way.

September 20, 2025

Massive Tie Scenario

Two requests came in for a look at a Massive Tie Scenario. Using the rule, “If one person says you’re drunk, ignore him. If two people say you’re drunk, sit down,” here is a look at a possible six-way tie for the AL Central, AL West, and AL Wild Card. This is as of Saturday morning, although the Tigers and first Guardians games are nearing the end. I will be doing the calculation daily on this spreadsheet.

The Yankees own the most wins in the group and the highest number of wins that could result in a tie are 91 before adjusting for the schedule. The Tigers play both the Guardians and the Red Sox, three games each. The Guardians would need to win all nine of their remaining games, and the Red Sox need to win seven, and Detroit needs to win six. They can’t win six if they get swept by Cleveland, so the most wins for the tie would be 90. The probability of that happening stands at .000132, or one in 7570 chances. That better than I would have thought. The most likely scenario comes at 89 wins.

As I wrote this, the Tigers lost to the Braves, Will Vest blowing a save in the ninth inning for a 6-5 Atlanta win. That should make a tie a bit more likely.

Note that first, the two division winners would be crowned based on head-to-head records. Cleveland and Seattle hold those at the moment, but they have yet to be decided. The remaining four teams are ranked by their total records against each other, and those may still need to be decided.

Update: Cleveland wins 6-0 over the Twins in game one of their doubleheader. Coupled with the Tigers loss, that raises the probability of the six-way tie to 0.000208, or 1 in 4810.

September 20, 2025

Games of the Day

The AL Central race takes center stage early this afternoon as the Tigers host the Braves at 1 PM EDT and the Guardians visit the Twins at 2 PM EDT in the first game of a split admission doubleheader. None of the pitching matchups are particularly compelling, but today will even the number of game left for both Detroit and Cleveland. The Guardians hold the tie-breaker with the Tigers right now, leading the season series 6-4 with three games left between the clubs.

The AL West battle resumes tonight with the Mariners sending George Kirby against the Astros and Framber Valdez. Seattle leads Houston by one game in the division after a 4-0 victory Friday night. Kirby comes into the game with a 4.46 ERA, and pitched in a number of rough starts lately. Valdez stands 7-3 in 18 appearances against the Mariners in his career, owning a 3.22 ERA. This season, he allowed just one run in twelve innings.

Enjoy!

September 19, 2025

Tigers Tumble

The Braves beat the Tigers 11-1, Detroit now 1-7 in their last eight games. It was the fifth time in that stretch that they allowed at least six runs. Tonight, Charlie Morton got bombed by one of his old teams, allowing six runs in 1 1/3 innings. Detroit’s lead in the AL Central is down to three games, with the Guardians leading the Twins 2-0 in the fifth. The epic collapse continues.

September 18, 2025

Making Up the Losses

Last week when Detroit took the first two games of the series at Yankee Stadium, they led the AL Central by 9 1/2 games with 18 days and 16 games left on their schedule. After the Guardians stretched their winning streak to seven games with a three-game sweep of Detroit, the Tigers lead is down to 3 1/2 games. Cleveland is just three games down in the AFILC, with and they host the Tigers for three games in the penultimate series of the season.

Now, the AFILC is all important because you can make up the wins, but you can’t make up the losses. I was just discussing this with a friend, pointing out that by beating the Tigers directly, the Guardians just made up three losses. If they sweep the Tigers next week, they’ll make up three more losses.

Blowing a 9 1/2 game lead in 18 days would be pretty epic. The Phillies were up 6 1/2 with twelve games to play when they blew the pennant. Their biggest lead was 7 1/2 games after games of Aug.23. If Detroit loses, I think they would then take the top spot for worst collapses.

September 8, 2025

Cecconi Nononi

Slade Cecconi of the Guardians just finished six no-hit innings against the Royals. With Cleveland leading 9-0, Cecconi can feel free to go after hitters the rest of the way. He’s walked three and struck out three with 81 pitches thrown. We’ll see how long the teams allows him to stay in the game if the no-hitter remains intact.

Update: Michael Massey singled leading off the top of the eighth inning to break up the no-hitter.

September 2, 2025

Fast Slugfest

The Red Sox downed the Guardians Tuesday night at Fenway 11-7. The game took just 2:26. The teams combined for 253 pitches, 187 for strikes, with no walks issued. With 78 batters in the game, PAs averaged just 3.2 pitches.

The bad news for the Red Sox is that Roman Anthony left the with an oblique injury.

Update: It’s fast Tuesday as the Mets beat the Tigers 12-5 in 2:43.

August 12, 2025

Quick Work

The Mariners beat the Orioles 1-0 in two hours, twenty eight minutes, while the Guardians downed the Marlins 4-3 in two hours, twenty nine minutes. The Mariners won on the road, the Guardians at home, so the 2:28 is even more impressive as the game had an extra half inning. Good to see the games moving along.

August 6, 2025

Gavinized

Gavin Williams gave the Cleveland bullpen most of the day off as he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning, losing it on a one-out Juan Soto home run. The Guardians won the game 4-1. He actually stayed in for two more batters, getting Pete Alonso to fly out, then walking Brandon Nimmo. Williams walked four and struck out six in the game, throwing 126 pitches.

Williams is seasonal age 25, so he’s not a youngster. So the Guardians likely felt he could take a higher pitch count. An impressive outing that lowered his ERA to 3.17.

June 10, 2025

Complete Abbott

Andrew Abbott of the Reds make one run hold up for the win as he records the first complete game and shutout in his career, a 1-0 win over the Guardians. It’s just the 12th complete game of the season.

Abbott lowers his ERA to 1.87, allowing just three hits and one walk. Abbott does a good job of limiting hits, not only with strikeouts, but holding the opposition to a .229 BABIP. It’s good to get help from the defense.

May 25, 2025

Skubal Skubal Doo!

Tarik Skubal pitches a near perfect outing as he goes the distance for the Tigers in a 5-0 win over the Guardians in the early Sunday game. The Guardians managed just two hits and a hit batter, one of those runners removed with a double play. Skubal struck out 13 batters, but still threw an efficient 94 pitches.

That shutout generated a game score of 96. That’s the highest on the season, beating Michael King‘s 90 from April 13th. It’s tied for the fourth highest game score of the decade. Skubal has now struck out 92 and walked just seven in 2025.

May 13, 2025

Ramirez Getting On

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians collected two hits and scored the only two runs in the game as Cleveland beat Milwaukee. Ramirez hit well in his last dozen games, 17 for 44 with six walks and a hit by pitch, so he’s averaging two times on base a game.

Opponents outscored the Guardians by ten runs so far this season, making their 25-17 record a bit remarkable. They’ve had a number of close wins and a few blow out losses. Ramirez made the great pitching staff performance hold up tonight, but the team is going to need a little more offense if they want to keep winning.

May 11, 2025

Thoughts at the Quarter Pole

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The Major Leagues are about 40 games into their 162 game season. The Tigers may be the big surprise of the year. At 26-14 their .650 winning percentage stands first in the American League and second in the majors to the Padres. The Dodgers sport the same record as well. The Tigers, however, stand as the most balanced team this season. They rank fourth in both runs scored per game (5.33) and fewest runs allowed per game (3.40). The Padres rank twelfth and first, the Dodgers third and fourteenth, the Cubs first and nineteenth, the Yankees second and eleventh, and the Mets ninth and second.

So among the best teams, the Tigers show the fewest weaknesses. If the pitching or offense falters, the other side of the team is good enough to carry the load for a while. This puts them in a very good position to continue strong for the rest of the year.

The Guardians record stands five wins above their Pythagorean projection, so they may be in for a bit of a regression as the season continues. On the other hand, Cleveland could use some luck to break their decades long World Championship drought. Note that the best two divisions, the AL Central and the NL West each contain a terrible team, the White Sox and the Rockies. Every team gets to play two doormats, but they still see their division rivals more. This gives the runners up in the division a real boost for the wild card slots.

Aaron Judge leads in the triple crown stats, and also in the average triple crown, BA, OBP, and Slugging percentage. He even hit two triples this year. Judge cut down on his strikeouts this season, although not to the extent of Miguel Cabrera when he took home his TC in 2012.

Bobby Witt Jr, with seventeen doubles, has a shot at 68 doubles and a new record. Doubles seem to be something that fades as both seasons and careers progress. So while doubles leaders tend to hit a lot, no one challenges the records of Earl Webb and Tris Speaker.

It’s nice to see the emergence of the Hunter Colors as great pitchers. Hunter Greene now ranks ninth in the Bill James starting pitcher rankings and Hunter Brown ranks seventeenth.

Can a GM really make that much of a difference to the play on the field? Buster Posey‘s two biggest moves for the Giants, bringing Willy Adames and Justin Verlander haven’t worked out well. Can the vibe from the front office really bring players around to better performances?

I thought the White Sox were horrible in 2024, but the Rockies have taken things to the next level of hell. They can neither pitch nor hit. Bud Black got the evil vote of confidence yesterday, then the team lost 21-0. Maybe Colorado needs to take a page from the Giants and fire the front office.

Max Fried of the Yankees owns a 1.05 ERA, but does not finish in the top five of any of the three-true outcome categories.

What are your thoughts?

May 7, 2025

Unrealized Potential

The Guardians beat the Nationals 8-6 Wednesday afternoon, a game in which the Nationals had the opportunity to score many more runs. The top three hitters for the Nationals each collected three hits, going nine for seventeen with a walk. The trio combined to score just two runs however. One of those times on base did result in a pickoff, but that still leaves seven runners not driven in. The Nationals went four for nineteen with runners in scoring position.

Coming into today, the team was actually quite good in that situation, hitting .262/.329/.396 with RISP, .239/.309/.384 overall.

April 26, 2025

Angel in the Outfield

Angel Martinez of the Guardians found his stroke since returning to the majors in mid-April. He went two for four today in the 5-4 win over the Red Sox to raise his slash line to .372/.364/.488 in 44 PA. A big difference from last season is his strikeout rate, down to 9% from 20% last year. He struck out about 18% of the time in the minors, but at seasonal age 23 this could be a real improvement. If he can keep making contact, he should be about to maintain a decent BA. It would help if he could draw a walk more often, or once, even.

April 13, 2025

Ragin’ Ragans

Cole Ragans of the Royals continued demonstrating his fantastic control this season as he walked none and struck out ten in a 4-2 win over Guardians. Ragans lasted 7 2/3 innings, giving up four hits and two runs, only one of them earned. For the season he struck out 34 and walked four batters, for a better than 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio. That’s led to a 2.28 ERA after four starts.

April 8, 2025

Shift Ends the No Hitter

Shane Smith of the White Sox, making his second MLB start and appearance, did not allow a hit through 5 2/3 innings. Jose Ramirez broke up the no-hitter as he made poor contact and dribbled the ball down the third base line. The infield, however, was shifted on the switch-hitter, batting left, and by the time the third baseman got to the ball, there was no chance of throwing out Ramirez.

A normally positioned third baseman might have had a tough play, but I’ve seen plenty of runners thrown out on the charge play in my lifetime.

There’s no score at the end of six innings.

Update: The Guardians win the game 1-0 on a walk-off walk by Nolan Jones. Mike Clevinger recorded the last out of the eighth inning, then gave to a single and three straight walks to end the game.

March 27, 2025

Single Short of a Cycle

Kyle Manzardo doubled, tripled, and homered on opening day to lead the Guardians to a 7-4, ten inning win over the Royals. He doubled in two of the runs in the tenth.

Manzardo’s strength in his rookie season came from his power, with 17 of the 34 hits going for extra bases. He seems to be on a track to top that this season.

He inspired this from a Guardians fan:

What is Kyle Manzardo? pic.twitter.com/uWN6OZIN2z
— McNeil (@Reflog_18) March 27, 2025