Ken Rosenthal reports that Josh Harrison reached a deal with the Tigers.
Based on this three-year WAR average, I peg his contract between $14.2 million and $15.8 million, given that a WAR appears to be going for between $9 and $10 million dollars a year. The average of Harrison’s fWAR and rWAR over the last three years is 1.58 per season. What is your best guess?
Josh Harrison makes a sizable donation as he leaves Pittsburgh via free agency:
They didn’t see any reason to move everything back home to Cincinnati. They didn’t want to put it in storage and move it wherever Harrison signs this offseason. They didn’t want to sell it or even give it away to someone who would. Finally, they settled on a solution.
“We just wanted to make sure that those who need it had an opportunity to get it,” Harrison said.
That giving spirit ultimately led Harrison and Brittney back to their house last weekend, when they donated a truckload of furniture, supplies and more to Pittsburgh’s Light of Life Rescue Mission, which serves the city’s homeless and hungry.
Before leaving, the Harrisons found one more way to make a difference in the Pittsburgh community.
“That was home for us for the past however-many years,” Harrison said in a phone interview this week. “Considering where we were, we were like, ‘Man, we know there are people in Pittsburgh that can use it.’ It was just a matter of finding somebody.”
I suspect Harrison will always be welcomed warmly when he returns as a visiting player.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN).
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.339 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tyler Duffey
0.334 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeremy Hellickson
0.315 — Josh Harrison batting against Michael Wacha
0.315 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Tyler Duffey
0.314 — Carlos Beltran batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.309 — Starlin Castro batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.309 — David Ortiz batting against Tyler Duffey
0.308 — Jacoby Ellsbury batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.308 — Martin Prado batting against Patrick Corbin
0.306 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Patrick Corbin
0.306 — Mookie Betts batting against Tyler Duffey
0.306 — Ryan Braun batting against Matt Harvey
Log5 is down on Mike Pelfrey, who allowed 78 hits in 58 2/3 innings so far this season against a heating up Yankees offense. It’s also down on Tyler Duffey, who allowed 57 hits in 47 innings against a great Red Sox offense.
Here is the NN list:
0.285, 0.754 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Andriese.
0.334, 0.746 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.339, 0.744 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.301, 0.741 — Danny Valencia batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.263, 0.740 — Miguel Cabrera batting against CC Sabathia.
0.315, 0.738 — Josh Harrison batting against Michael Wacha.
0.269, 0.733 — Ian Kinsler batting against CC Sabathia.
0.245, 0.733 — Ben Revere batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.308, 0.731 — Martin Prado batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.289, 0.730 — David Peralta batting against Justin Nicolino.
The Log5 method doesn’t like the Detroit starter, but the NN doesn’t like his opponent, CC Sabathia. The consensus picks are Bogaerts, Murphy, and Harrison.
As always there’s a good chance that your pick does not get a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN).
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.347 — Josh Harrison batting against Chad Bettis
0.340 — Starling Marte batting against Chad Bettis
0.332 — Daniel Murphy batting against Miguel Gonzalez
0.313 — Ryan Braun batting against Bartolo Colon
0.310 — John Jaso batting against Chad Bettis
0.303 — Gregory Polanco batting against Chad Bettis
0.303 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Bartolo Colon
0.302 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ivan Nova
0.302 — Nomar Mazara batting against Collin McHugh
0.299 — Jung-ho Kang batting against Chad Bettis
0.299 — David Freese batting against Chad Bettis
Bettis is a good target. He has a high BABIP and a high home run rate. With low strikeout and walk rates, a lot of balls are put in play against him. Kang has been hitting well since his return from injury, and currently owns a six-game hit streak.
Here is the NN list:
0.292, 0.757 — Jose Altuve batting against Martin Perez.
0.347, 0.755 — Josh Harrison batting against Chad Bettis.
0.332, 0.741 — Daniel Murphy batting against Miguel Gonzalez.
0.340, 0.740 — Starling Marte batting against Chad Bettis.
0.302, 0.731 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ivan Nova.
0.292, 0.730 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.243, 0.728 — Ben Revere batting against Miguel Gonzalez.
0.313, 0.728 — Ryan Braun batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.303, 0.725 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.299, 0.722 — Jung-ho Kang batting against Chad Bettis.
Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, and Daniel Murphy appear to be the consensus picks.
Just to demonstrate why Bettis does so poorly, here are the parameters for the Bettis-Harrison match-up. All the number represent a hit average, hits/plate appearance:
[‘0.283’, ‘0.269’, ‘0.300’, ‘0.285’, ‘0.229’]
The first number is Bettis in 2016. The second number is a three-year weighted average for Bettis. The third number is Harrison 2016. The fourth number is a three-year weighted average for Harrison. The final number is the 2016 MLB average for position players. Short term, both players are well above league average. Long term, both are well above league average, but about 15 points below their short term averages. So these are two players who give up/collect hits at a high rate in general, and more extreme this season.
Again, the best players on this list will not get a hit about 25% of the time, so choose wisely.
Josh Harrison goes on the disabled list with a thumb injury:
The Pirates placed starting third baseman Josh Harrison on the 15-day disabled list Monday with a left thumb injury after an awkward slide Sunday in a game against the Cleveland Indians. They also added newly acquired Travis Ishikawa to the roster.
As for a prognosis, Harrison said, “I’m still trying to figure that out myself.” He is scheduled to have a second opinion later this week after the swelling lessens. This is the first time on the disabled list in his five-year major league career.
Thumb injuries can take a long time, as even after a player heals, the thumb still bothers them when they hit.
Jung Ho Kang takes over at third base. They have similar stats this season so the Pirates should not lose too much.
A win today keeps the Pirates hopes of an NL Central title alive as Francisco Liriano takes on the Reds and Alfredo Simon. The two starter have nearly identical ERAs, 3.32 for Liriano, 3.34 for Simon, and both lost 10 games. Simon, however, won 15 games while Liriano won just seven. It’s just another example of how the team context can effect won-lost records of pitchers. It’s also an important game in the race for the NL Batting championship, as Justin Morneau, Josh Harrison, and Andrew McCutchen are separated by five points.
The Royals also need a win to guarantee that Sunday matters in the AL Central race. Danny Duffy faces the White Sox and John Danks. Duffy appears to have avoided a serious injury, as the time off after feeling tightness in his shoulder worked. Duffy came back to throw six shutout innings against the Indians his last time out, and gives the Royals an excellent ace going into the playoffs. Danks allowed just three runs in 13 innings against the Royals this season despite walking eight batters. Since the Royals are last in the AL in walks, that’s no mean feat.
Oakland will see if one of their big trades pays off as Jeff Samardzija takes on Derek Holland and the Rangers, a win putting Oakland in the playoffs. Samardzija allowed fewer walks and more home runs since joining the Athletics, the result being an ERA in line with his Cubs numbers. He still can’t win as much as he should, however, as he is only 5-5 with Oakland despite a 2.92 ERA. Holland allowed zero home runs and just four walks in 34 1/3 innings since returning from the disable list.
The Cardinals send Lance Lynn against Wade Miley as they try to wrap up the NL Central title. A win would guarantee at least a tie for the division. Lynn owns a 2.14 ERA since the All-Star break, but just a 5-4 record to go with that impressive run prevention. He has allowed five unearned runs in that time, 20% of his total. Miley owns a 5.72 ERA at home versus 3.17 on the road. He might want to depart the team like Brandon McCarthy did.
Finally, C.J. Wilson battles James Paxton as the Angels try to eliminate the Mariners from the playoff picture. There will be scoreboard watching in that game as the Oakland game starts an hour earlier. Wilson owns a 5.62 ERA on the road, while Paxton comes in at 2.25 at home.
I like the pitching match-ups to extend the wild card race into Sunday.
Enjoy!
Josh Harrison went two for four for the Pirates, while Justin Morneau did not play for the Rockies. Harrison leads the batting race by a hair, .3184 to .3183. Harrison now has approximately a 52% chance of winning the batting race, based on this spreadsheet. Harrison wins if he can pick up one more hit than Morneau over the last week, given the estimated number of at bats.
Justin Morneau leads Josh Harrison .318 to .317 in the race for the NL batting championship. At the moment, Morneau has about a 60% chance of winning the batting title, based on this spreadsheet. I estimate their remaining at bats based on their at bats per team game for the season. My guess is for Morneau, that’s a good estimate, but Harrison is likely to play every game down the stretch. At this point, for Harrison to win, he needs two more hits than Morneau the rest of the way.
I’ll look into updating this every day. Basically, I figure the probability of Morneau getting at least X hits, based on his Zips(R) figure from FanGraphs. For Harrison, I figure the probability of him getting at least two more hits than Morneau. I multiply those figures together to come up with the probability of Harrison winning at that hit level for Morneau. I then add up those probabilities to get the total probability of Harrison winning.
The last four balls in play by the Brewers where shots to third base. Josh Harrison handled all the shots with ease for four outs. Nice to see the Brewers pulling the ball hard, but Harrison may start his own vacuum cleaner company. 🙂
Milwaukee does lead Pittsburgh 1-0 in the bottom of the fourth.
Update: The Brewers were up 2-0 in the eighth when Russell Martin hits a three-run homer to right-center of Jonathan Broxton. Pittsburgh now leads 3-2. It’s Martin’s 11th homer of the season as his averages recovered from three down years. It’s only the fourth HR allowed by Broxton this season.
Update: The Pirates score another in the eighth and beat the Brewers 4-2. Milwaukee wastes a great start by Yovani Gallardo, who pitched seven shutout innings, walking one and striking out 11. The Pirates collected six hits in the eighth have having only five through the first seven innings. The Pirates magic number for the playoffs drops to five.
Josh Harrison of the Pirates comes into this afternoon’s game against the Cardinals with the highest qualifying batting average in the National League. This is quite a jump for Harrison, as he was quite the out machine his first three seasons in the majors. He’s not walking much more than he used to, as his increase in OBP matches his increase in batting average. He is hitting for quite a bit more power, with 51 extra base hits, including seven triples. He’s turned out to be a decent lead-off man, as the doubles and triples power, along with a good stolen base percentage, gets him in scoring position often.
His seasonal age is 26, meaning he’s early in his prime. It’s a good age to blossom, and Harrison did just that.
For the second time in three games, Josh Harrison scores the walk-off run for the Pirates. On Tuesday, he hit a game winning home run in the bottom of the ninth. In the bottom of the tenth Thursday afternoon he singled leading off the inning, and scored when with two outs, Russell Martin hit a 3-2 pitch into left for the game winning single. The Pirates sweep Miami with the 5-4 victory and have won five in a row. Pittsburgh needs just 12 more wins for their first season with a winning record in over 20 years. Their first division title since that last winning season in 1992 is a real possibility, too.
The only cold first-place team right now appears to be Oakland. The others are using early August heat to cement their positions as division leaders.
Josh Harrison pinch hits for the Pirates in the ninth, and hits a rare home run to break a 3-3 tie and send the Marlins to a 4-3 defeat. For Harrison, it’s just his sixth home run in 478 career at bats.
The Pirates are now 24 games above .500 with 50 to play. I don’t think this team will go 12-38.