Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.304 — Jean Segura batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.304 — Manny Machado batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.299 — Adam Jones batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.289 — Corey Dickerson batting against Wade Miley.
0.288 — Odubel Herrera batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.280 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.279 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.279 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyson Ross.
0.277 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.277 — Dee Gordon batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.275 — J.D. Martinez batting against J.A. Happ.
0.273 — Christian Yelich batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.272 — Matt M Duffy batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.271 — Maikel Franco batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.269 — Adam C Eaton batting against Steven Matz.
0.269 — Starling Marte batting against Wade Miley.
0.268 — Mookie Betts batting against J.A. Happ.
0.268 — Daniel Murphy batting against Steven Matz.
0.265 — Nick Williams batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.265 — David Peralta batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.264 — Austin Meadows batting against Wade Miley.
0.264 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.264 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.264 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.263 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Trevor Cahill.
Jean Segura made the All-Star team on the extra man vote, along with Jesus Aguilar. Segura is six for eight against Skaggs, the highest BA against Skaggs of any player with at least eight PA in the match-up.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.304, 0.742 — Jean Segura batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.280, 0.736 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.275, 0.718 — J.D. Martinez batting against J.A. Happ.
0.289, 0.717 — Corey Dickerson batting against Wade Miley.
0.304, 0.714 — Manny Machado batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.299, 0.711 — Adam Jones batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.272, 0.709 — Matt M Duffy batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.277, 0.706 — Dee Gordon batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.268, 0.706 — Daniel Murphy batting against Steven Matz.
0.263, 0.705 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.279, 0.704 — Matt Kemp batting against Tyson Ross.
0.268, 0.703 — Mookie Betts batting against J.A. Happ.
0.288, 0.699 — Odubel Herrera batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.258, 0.698 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Robbie Ray.
0.264, 0.697 — Wilson Ramos batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.277, 0.697 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.262, 0.696 — Gerardo Parra batting against Robbie Ray.
0.262, 0.696 — Nolan Arenado batting against Robbie Ray.
0.265, 0.694 — David Peralta batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.279, 0.694 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.269, 0.693 — Starling Marte batting against Wade Miley.
0.255, 0.691 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Robbie Ray.
0.269, 0.690 — Adam C Eaton batting against Steven Matz.
0.273, 0.686 — Christian Yelich batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.238, 0.686 — Michael Brantley batting against Luis Severino.
Segura is the unanimous first choice today, Manny Machado the consensus second choice.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!
