The division previews finish with the AL West. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.
The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.
Houston Astros
- Position Player RC/G Average: 5.44
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.21
- Core Winning Percentage: .625
The offensive core of the Astros projects to the highest RC/G at 5.44. Two big departures hurt the team a bit. Issac Paredes doesn’t quite fill Alex Bregman‘s shoes offensively. Cam Smith replaces Kyle Tucker, Smith making the team after a very brief career in the minors. Smith offers a great deal of upside, however. At 22, he was old for the low minors and smashed the ball there. He posted great spring training numbers, and is the source of upside for the Astros lineup. If he works out, the Tucker trade will turn out to be successful, as the Astros save themselves a lot of money for similar production.
Yordan Alvarez, the Astros DH, projects as the best hitter in the division at 8.82 RC/G. Note that this is a division with a number of designated hitters who can actually hit well. The move of Jose Altuve to leftfield, however, weakens the Astros up the middle, giving them just the second best RC/G there, mostly driven by Yainer Diaz at 5.45 RC/G as a catcher. The change from Martin Maldonado to Diaz turned an offensive weakness into a strength, and the pitching staff still performs well.
The pitchings, however, doesn’t look quite as strong as in the past. They have a whole rotation on the illjured list, and one of two of the elbow problems might resolve during the season. Until then, Framber Valdez remains a solid ace, and everyone else is good enough to win with the Astros offense.
All the pieces are there for another run at the division title.
Seattle Mariners
- Position Player RC/G Average: 4.96
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.78
- Core Winning Percentage: .633
The Mariners rate ahead of the Astros in Core Winning Percentage thanks to their pitching. Note that this is a very strong pitching division, with the Mariners not only top in the division at 3.78 RC/G, but the best in the majors.
It is unusual for a team in these projections to have two starting pitchers under 4.0 RC/G, but the Mariners sport three. Their fourth starter by this ranking is Luis Castillo at 4.11. This rotation to a man does not walk batters. Their strike out rates are good, but they still need a good defense behind them. There is no clear superstar ace, but all will keep the team in the game. On top of that Andres Munoz projects as the most effective closer in the division.
On offense, none of the core project to superstardom, but no one is terrible. Julio Rodriguez offers upside, as 2024 turned out to be an off-year for him in terms of power. He will play 2025 as a 24-year-old, not yet in his prime, so it’s possible to see a huge improvement from him. The core is already the best in the division up the middle, and Rodriguez could put them way ahead of the pack. The team is already looking like the best in the division, and a superstar season from Rodriguez could push them past the Astros.
Texas Rangers
- Position Player RC/G Average: 5.14
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.39
- Core Winning Percentage: .578
Jacob deGrom projects as the best starter in the division at 3.49 RC/G. Note that over the last three season, deGrom faced only about 400 batters, so his Marcels are highly regressed to the league average. He is capable of pitching much better than that projection. If deGrom stays healthy for the whole season, the Rangers might go 23-10 in his starts. Going a bit over .500 in the rest of their games puts them in playoff contention. Given there is plenty of upside in youngster Kumar Rocker, that scenario is quite doable. deGrom staying healthy is a big if, however.
Corey Seager appears to have made a deal with the devil, as he projects to 6.66 RC/G. Joc Pederson at DH gives them two 6 RC/G hitters. Wyatt Langford, at seasonal age 23, has some upside as well.
There is also the Evan Carter unknown. Carter played poorly in spring training after an autoimmune disease hurt his back in 2024. If he can regain his swing and return to the majors at full force, the offense may be more in line with the Astros.
The upside in Texas is good, but too many things need to go right in order to get them to the top of the division.
Oakland Athletics
- Position Player RC/G Average: 4.76
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.48
- Core Winning Percentage: .530
Did you know there was another Max Muncy? The Athletics drafted the original in 2012, but did not get him to realize his potential, and he went on to a great career with the Dodgers. The new Max Muncy made the opening day roster at second base. Both players were born on Aug 25th, but the way.
The Athletics Muncy did a fantastic job of getting on base in the minors. The projection for him is league average of 4.71 RC/G, but there is plenty of upside there. There are no poor offensive projections in the core, but only Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker project to be good.
The pitching side is very similar. Only Jeffrey Springs projects to be good. I suspect there is upside to Severino’s 4.97 projection, as his poor 2023 still lingers in the background. Mason Miller looks like a solid closer.
Not a bad team, not a great team. The non-core players likely pull the team below .500. I expect some improvement, but the team in Sacramento is more likely to finish last than first.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Position Player RC/G Average: 5.08
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.63
- Core Winning Percentage: .546
I never seem to know where the Angels are going. They project to be better than the Athletics by a smidgen, but another injury to Mike Trout and that probably doesn’t happen.
The offense ranks third in the division, but the pitching is last. I don’t see much upside on either side of the ball. Most of the acquisitions were older, so they are unlikely to improve. If everything goes right, they should improve over the last place finish in 2024, but things seldom go right in Anaheim anymore. I’m not optimistic.
Predictions
Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.
- Seattle Mariners 40%
- Houston Astros 35%
- Texas Rangers 20%
- LAA Angels 3%
- Athletics 2%
This looks like a great two-way race between the Mariners and the Astros. Seattle looks a little stronger and Houston a little weaker, so maybe this is the season for the Mariners. Don’t count out the Rangers, as there is plenty of upside to that team if things break right.
Both the Athletics and the Angels look better than in 2024. Overall this is the division if you like pitching, so if that plays well outside the AL West, we could be looking a five teams with good records at the end of the season.