Jack Flaherty took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Giants. The St. Louis and San Francisco were both scoreless with Evan Longoria ended the no-hit bid with a home run, which would prove to be the only run in the game. All in all, Flaherty and Giants starter Jeff Samardzija held batters to six hits in fourteen innings, and with the bullpens, a mere eight hits in the game.
The Pirates and Brewers continue their NL Central series with Jordan Lyles facing Zach Davies. Lyles owns a 2.61 ERA on the road, where he struck out 36 batters in 27 innings. Davies lowered his ERA two and a half runs compared to last season, and one and a half runs compared to his career. His three true outcomes are about the same, but Davies is pitching much better with men on base this season.
The Braves face the Marlins with Julio Teheran taking on Trevor Richards. Teheran pitched better than his record, posting a 3.28 ERA. He’s cut down on his home run rate this season. Richards ERA improved in his sophomore season, despite some worsening of his three-true outcome rates. He’s pitched better lately, with a 2.43 ERA since the start of May.
Jack Flaherty and Jon Lester battle in Chicago as the Cardinals visit the Cubs. Flaherty’s high strikeout rate limits opposition hits, but 20% of those hits have left the ballpark. Lester owns a very consistent WHIP the last three season, 1.32, 1.31, and 1.31 this year.
Finally, the Dodgers-Giants rivalry continues with Rich Hill facing Jeff Samardzjia. Hill struck out 46 batters in 40 innings while allowing just nine walks. Samardzjia owns a 2.03 ERA at home, with just three of his eleven home runs coming in San Francisco.
Enjoy!
Wednesday starts with an excellent pitching match-up as five game winners square off in Milwaukee. Luis Castillo leads the Reds against Zach Davies and the Brewers. Castillo brings a 1.90 ERA into the game thanks in part to allowing just three home runs in 61 2/3 innings. Davies sports a 1.54 ERA. Opponents hit just .240 against him despite a low strikeout rate. The pitchers rank two and three in the NL in ERA.
Cole will be king as the Phillies and Cubs continue their series with Cole Irvin facing Cole Hamels. The Phillies continue to have good luck with pitchers named Cole, as Irvin won the first two starts of his MLB career, walking just two batters in 13 innings. Hamels stands 4-0 in nine starts this season, holding the opposition to a .216/.290/.357 slash line. (Just for good measure, Gerrit Cole is starting for Houston tonight.)
Finally, Max Fried takes on Jeff Samardzjia as the Braves battle the Giants. Fried walked 11 batters in 50 1/3 innings, helping him limit batters to a .283 OBP. Samardzjia allowed just one of his eight home runs at home this year, and owns a 2.61 ERA in San Francisco.
Enjoy!
The Athletics and Pirates play the rubber game of their series with Frankie Montas facing Jordan Lyles. A high BA allowed with runners in scoring position failed to hurt Montas’s ERA much. He allowed 11 hits in 30 AB, but only 12 RBI. He tends not to give up the big hit. Lyles, however, crushes the competition in that situation, allowing a .188 BA, 3 for 16. It helps that he keeps runners out of scoring position.
Michael Pineda returns to New York to face his old team, the Yankees. Domingo German takes the hill in opposition. Pineda owns a great walk rate, but his strikeout rate is low and his home run rate is high. He allowed 37 hits for a .316 opposition BA. German pitches well in all aspects of the three-true outcomes, helping him to a 2.56 ERA.
Finally, a healthy Jeff Samardzjia leads the Giants against Luis Castillo and Reds. Samardzjia limits both on base and power this season, with a .209/.270/.330 opponents slash line. Castillo leads the majors in ERA with a 1.45 mark. He allowed just two home runs in 43 1/3 innings.
Enjoy!
Given the ERAs of many of the scheduled starters, this might be the highest scoring Wednesday ever. Two games stand out from the crowd.
Jeff Samardzjia leads the Giants against Jeremy Hellickson and the the Nationals. Samardzjia has yet to allow a home run this year, a big reason for his 1.62 ERA. Of his 12 hits allowed in 16 2/3 innings, only two have gone for extra bases. Hellickson is an interesting pitcher, as he allows a low hit rate despite a low strike out rate. With Washington, he’s kept that up and lowered his home run rate.
On the west coast, Wade Miley faces Frankie Montas and the Athletics. Miley’s low strikeout rate does lead to hits, but he keeps his home runs and walks low to compensate. Montas got knocked around a bit by the Astros in his career, owning a 5.89 ERA in five games. Two of those were relief appearances where he got knocked around a bit.
Enjoy!
The Mets go for a sweep of the Nationals as Zack Wheeler takes on Patrick Corbin. Wheeler has a poor record against Washington, 4-8 in 13 starts with a 4.37 ERA. He gives up hits to the Nationals at a much higher rate than he does in his overall career. Corbin makes his Washington debut. Corbin pitched little in Washington during his time with the Diamondbacks, but allowed four home runs in 15 innings.
The Indians and Twins play the rubber game of their opening series with Carlos Carrasco taking on Michael Pineda. Carrasco performed steadily over the last three seasons, with ERAs between 3.29 and 3.38. In that time opponents hit .238/.286/.396 against him. Opponents generate power against him, but the lack of base runners means there are few opportunities for RBI. Pineda returns from Tommy John surgery. He last pitched in July of 2017. In 20 1/3 innings this spring, he struck out 20 and walked just five, indicating both his power and control are there.
For the second day in a row, a Padres starting pitcher makes his major league debut. The Giants send Jeff Samardzija against Chris Paddack. Samardzija managed just 44 2/3 innings in the 2018 season, posting a 6.25 ERA due to shoulder problems. Paddack managed 37 1/3 innings at AA before his call up. He struck out 11.7 per nine innings pitched in the minors, with a walk rate of 1.0 per 9 IP.
Enjoy!
The Nationals finish their series in San Francisco with Max Scherzer facing Jeff Samardzija. Washington is sliding away from the leaders in the NL East with a four-game losing streak, and hope leading Cy Young contender Scherzer can halt the skid. With a 4-1 record, Scherzer earned a decision in all five of his starts, recorded a complete game, and struck out 47 batters in 33 innings. Samardzija returned from the disabled list to throw five shutout innings. He walked four batters but allowed just two hits.
The Red Sox and Blue Jays continue their battle for the top spots in the AL East with Eduardo Rodriguez taking on Aaron Sanchez. Left-handed batters recorded nine at bats against lefty Rodriguez, and struck out eight times. Sanchez allowed a .375 BA with men in scoring position so far, but that 9 for 24 only yielded 10 RBI.
Finally, the Cubs hitters are on a roll as Jon Lester takes on the Indians and Trevor Bauer. Lester has a nice reverse platoon advantage working, as RHB hit .234/.319/.344 against him this year. Batters can’t find holes against Bauer this season, as the BABIP against him is just .250.
Enjoy!
Madison Bumgarner was hit in the hand in his last spring training start:
Madison Bumgarner, in his final tuneup before his scheduled Opening Day start, left the game in the third inning after taking a line shot by the Royals’ Whit Merrifield off his left hand.
A replay showed that Bumgarner stuck his left hand in front his chest instinctively to protect himself.
Bumgarner initially tried to retrieve the ball, but after bending over to get it, walked behind the mound with his back to the plate.
No word yet on Bumgarner’s status.
Update: The Giants get a double whammy of bad news:
The Giants endured a double whammy on Friday. With ace Madison Bumgarner out with a left hand fracture, manager Bruce Bochy said on Friday that right-hander Jeff Samardzija could miss up to a month with a strained right pectoral muscle.
That’s two fifths of the Giants rotation out for at least a month.
Rich Hill tries to dig a deeper hole for the Nationals, and Tanner Roark tries to even the NLDS against the Dodgers. Hill pitched brilliantly for the Dodgers in his six starts, striking out 39 batters in 34 1/3 innings, walking just five. He also posted a reverse platoon split for Los Angeles, the lefty hurler doing better against RHB. That’s not true for his career. Roark pitched very differently in 2016 than in his last full season as a starter, 2014. He struck out many more batters, but walks many more also. With about the same home run rate, this combination worked for him as he allowed fewer hits, resulting in a very similar ERA. He posted a 2.85 ERA this season, 2.83 in 2014. If you look at his Bases empty/Runners on split, he may have been walking hitters to avoid their power.
The Giants try to gain home field advantage with a win in Chicago as Jeff Samardzija takes on Kyle Hendricks. Samardzija owns a long history at Wrigly Field, all but one start there for the Cubs. He struck out a ton of batters in the those games, doing a pretty good job of keeping the ball in the park for what can be a easy home run park. Hendricks led the NL in ERA by 0.3 runs. He was outstanding at Wrigley, 9-2 with a 1.32 ERA in 2016. Only four of his 11 home runs allowed came at home.
Enjoy!
Thursday features just four games, but two of them have playoff implications. Miami plays the Mets with Jose Urena facing Jacob deGrom. Urena increased his strikeouts and cut down on his hits allowed compared to 2015, but saw his poor ERA rise from 5.25 to 5.83. deGrom posted a 4.45 ERA in August, despite good strikeout and walk numbers. He allowed a .391 BA with men on base, however.
The Giants travel to Chicago to take on the Cubs. Jeff Samardzija battles Mike Montgomery. This is the second time Samardzija faces his former team, and the first time at Wrigley field. The Cubs lit him up as a starter for the White Sox last season. Montgomery makes his third start for Cubs, with one good start and one not so good.
Enjoy!
Jeff Samardzija just finished six no-hit innings against the Mets. He walked one, struck out six, and used 81 pitches. There were a few games today in which the first hit of the game against a pitcher came late, including the other side of this Giants game where Noah Syndergaard did not allow a hit until there was one out in the fourth.
Neither pitcher allowed a run so far.
Update: Curtis Granderson leads off the seventh inning with a double. The game is still scoreless.
Update: Yoenis Cespedes follows with a home run down the leftfield line, and Samardzija’s shutout is gone as well.
Toronto tries to take three out of four against the Indians as Marcus Stroman takes on Corey Kluber. Stroman pitched a disappointing season after his glorious return at the end of 2015. He allowed nine home runs in the first 157 2/3 of his career, 18 home runs in 153 2/3 innings this year. Kluber goes for his 14th win. Kluber owns a 2.96 ERA at home versus 3.31 on the road, despite better three-true outcome rates away.
The Mets and Giants finish the day with Noah Syndergaard facing Jeff Samardzija. Syndergaard ERA stands at 4.86 in August, as his high strikeout rate failed to prevent his opponents from collecting a ton of hits. Samardzija allowed just four of his 21 home runs at home.
Enjoy!
Hisashi Iwakuma and Jon Lester get the day started with an afternoon game in Chicago as the Mariners visit the Cubs. Iwakuma ranks seventh in the majors in winning percentage since joining the majors in 2012. Not bad, considering the Mariners have not been a great team in that time frame. Lester tries to continue his home dominance. He owns a 2.18 ERA at Wrigley this season.
Baltimore opens an important AL East series in Toronto with Kevin Gausman facing Marco Estrada. The Orioles lead over the Blue Jays is 1 1/2 games. Gausman’s poor record comes mostly from this struggles on the road. He is 0-6 with a 4.94 ERA away from Camden Yards. Estrada suffers some bad luck as well, with a 5-4 record despite a 2.94 ERA. Or maybe his luck evens out. His ERA is much lower than his FIP.
The Rockies try to continue their surge into the playoff picture as Tyler Chatwood takes on Steven Matz of the Mets. Chatwood was built for the Rockies road games, 5-0 with a 1.30 ERA away from Coors with no home runs allowed in 48 1/3 innings. Matz allowed eight of his 11 home runs at Citi Field this year.
Finally, the Nationals and Giants continue their series between first place teams as Max Scherzer battle Jeff Samardzija. Sherzer has been on a roll since the start of June, tied with Michael Fulmer for the best ERA in the majors in that time, 1.71. Samardzija allowed just four of his 19 home runs at home this season.
Enjoy!
Francisco Liriano face Jake Arrieta as the Pirates try to gain on the Cubs. Liriano’s ERA is up more than a run and a half as opponents are pounding him with home runs. He allowed 15 HR in 186 2/3 innings in 2015. So far this season, he allowed 13 HR in just 67 2/3 innings. Arrieta goes for his 11th win after his first loss since 7/25/2015. In the last calendar year, he is 26-2 with a 1.23 ERA in 33 starts.
The White Sox send Jose Quintana against the Indians and Trevor Bauer. Quintana pitched to some bad luck this year, with a 5-7 record and a 2.66 ERA. He struck out 44 and allowed just one home run in 42 1/3 innings on the road. Bauer owns a 4.75 ERA at home. He allowed four of his six home runs in Cleveland.
The Giants, who were once supposed to move to Tampa Bay, try to beat the Rays with Jeff Samardzija. Chris Archer takes the hill for the Rays. Samardzija pitched well in his two career starts against the Rays, but did not get a decision. Archer is giving up home runs at a prodigious rate, 15 in his first 80 innings. He allowed 19 home runs in 212 innings last season.
Finally, Joe Ross battles Christian Friedrich as the Nationals face the Padres. Ross is not suffering a sophomore slump, as he has a lower ERA than his 2015 rookie season. After this start, his IP should be about the same as 2015, and his three-true outcomes are right in line with last season as well. Friedrich currently owns an ERA three runs below his career average. The move from Colorado to San Diego seemed to help.
Enjoy!
Chris Sale made it nine for nine to start the season as the White Sox won a squeaker from the Astros 2-1. Sale went the distance, walking none and striking out nine as the only Houston run came on an Evan Gattis homer. Sale allowed 13 runs this season, and six of them came on the five home runs he allowed. With an incredible .206 OBP allowed, teams cannot build long offensive sequences against the White Sox ace.
That performance moves Sale to the top of the Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker list. He moves ahead to both Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta, an impressive feat for someone pitching in the American League.
Note that Stephen Strasburg and Jeff Samardzija both posted great starts last night, but remain well behind Kershaw and Arrieta in the NL race. Strasburg is now 7-0 with a 2.80 ERA and great three-true outcome numbers, and he’s hardly in the discussion for the Cy Young award. It’s been an amazing year so far for top line pitching.
Jose Quintana faces Matt Moore as the first place White Sox take on the last place Rays. Quintana is off to a great three-true outcomes start. He struck out 12 in 11 2/3 innings while walking three with no home runs allowed. Moore walked three and struck out 11 in 12 innings this year. His K/BB is usually closer to two.
Aaron Sanchez and Steven Wright battle in Boston as the Blue Jays play game three of their four-game series. Sanchez allowed three runs so far, two of them earned. Those two came on solo home runs. The opposition is 1 for 17 against him with runners on base. Wright owns a 3.26 ERA in his career at Fenway, thanks to his ability to limit walks.
Kris Medlen makes his second start of the season for the Royals as they take on the Athletics and Chris Bassitt. Since moving into the Royals rotation in August of last year (working his way back slowly from surgery), Medlen owns a 4.41 ERA, but pitched well enough to go 6-2 in his nine starts. The high ERA is due mostly to two poor starts. Bassitt owns a low ERA despite seven walks and just eight strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings. Walks in parity with strikeouts tends to be a bad sign for a pitcher. The opposition is just 3 for 17 with runners on base, however.
Finally, the Giants and Dodgers square off Sunday night with new additions Jeff Samardzija and Kenta Maeda taking the mound. The Giants lead the season series 4-2, both teams coming into the contest with 7-5 records. Samardzija makes his third start, all on the road. So far he gives up hits with men on first base, but not with the bases empty or with men in scoring position. Maeda has yet to allow a run. In 12 innings he allowed 10 hits and one walk. He is even more extreme that Samardzija, allowing no hits with men in scoring position this season.
Enjoy!
Jose Fernandez and Noah Syndergaard square off as the Marlins battle the Mets in New York. Fernandez struck out 13 batters in 5 2/3 innings in his first outing, but still managed to allow five runs. Given his ability to strike out batters, I suspect that was an outlier performance. Syndergaard walked one and struck out nine in six innings in his first start. He had a more expected result for that kind of performance, not allowing a run.
The Giants travel to Colorado with Jeff Samardzija facing Tyler Chatwood. Samardzija will try to stop Trevor Story from authoring another home run. After giving up 29 in 2015, Samardzija might be a nice candidate for Story to take deep. Chatwood’s last start at Coors Field was against the Giants in 2014, before a second Tommy John surgery put his career on hold. He did not walk a batter in 6 1/3 innings in Arizona to start his 2016 season.
Enjoy!
After failing to sign Zack Greinke, the Giants land Jeff Samardzija:
Final numbers for the contract are 5 years for $90 million dollars with a limited trade clause.
In three of his last four seasons, Samardzija posted 2.7 fWAR, with an outlier of 4.1 fWAR in 2014. The $90 million indicate the Giants expect to get about 12 WAR from him, which seems about right. Supposedly, Samardzija abandoned his split finger pitch in 2015, and will bring it back in 2016. PITCHf/x does not agree with that, indicating he traded a two-seam fastball for a cutter. I suspect getting away from a designated hitter will help more. If tinkering does get him back to being a four WAR player, the Giants got a bargain.
James Shields takes on Jose Fernandez and the red hot Padres face the reeling Marlins. Shields is coming off a good July in which he posted a 2.50 ERA in six starts, but finished with a 1-2 record as the Padres scored one run or less in his starts four times. Fernandez won four of his five starts without a loss since returning from Tommy John surgery. He allowed just one home run in 32 innings while striking out 37.
Daniel Norris makes his Tigers debut as they face Ubaldo Jimenez and the Orioles. In five starts for the Blue Jays, Norris owned a 3.86 ERA despite being wild, walking 12 batters in 23 1/3 innings. The opposition was 2 for 23, however, with runners in scoring position. Jimenez is 6-1 with a 2.13 ERA at home, where he allowed just three of his 13 home runs.
The Yankees send Ivan Nova against the White Sox and Jeff Samardzija as Chicago continues to battle for a wild card slot. Eight of the 12 non-division leaders in the AL are within striking distance of both wild card slots, and the other four teams are a long winning streak away from getting into contention. Nova, back from Tommy John surgery, has not recovered his ability to strike out batters. He fanned 18 in 34 2/3 innings, making him dependent on the Yankees defense. Samardzija is striking out fewer batters than in the past, and for the first time since he became a full-time starter, is allowing more hits than innings pitched.
Finally, the Mets go for a sweep of the Nationals and a tie for first place in the NL East as Jordan Zimmermann faces Noah Syndergaard. Zimmermann pitched well against the Mets this season with no walks and 10 strikeouts in 13 innings. He did allow 12 hits, however, which is the story of his season. He’s allowed a ton of hits on the road this year. Syndergaard posted ERAs under 2.00 in three of the first four months of the season. Even his 5.14 June ERA seemed to be more bad luck than bad pitching as he walked five and struck out 31 in 28 innings.
Enjoy!
The Braves face the Mets Saturday afternoon with Shelby Miller battling Jacob deGrom. The trade for Miller landed the Braves an ace who allowed just four home runs in 78 1/3 innings, three of them solo shots. deGrom gives the Mets power and control, with 81 strikeouts and 16 walks in 78 innings.
Jeff Samardzija leads the White Sox against the Rays and Chris Archer. Samardzija saw his strikeout rate fall off this season, and for the first time since 2010 his hits allowed exceed his innings pitched. Archer tries to continue his Cy Young Award like season. He upped his strikeout rate, and holds opposing batters to a .196 BA, a .251 OBP, and a .272 slugging percentage.
Enjoy!
Chad Billingsley returns to the majors with the Phillies as they face Shelby Miller and the Braves. Billingsley missed all of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery. In 19 minor league innings this season he struck out 16 while walking six, but allowed three home runs. Miller is a bright spot for the Braves in 2015. He owns a 2.17 ERA, and he’s holding the opposition to a .167 BA with runners in scoring position.
Robin Ventura’s job might be on the line in Chicago as Detroit comes to town. Shane Greene takes on Jeff Samardzija. After allowing two runs in his first 23 innings, Greene gave up 15 runs in his last 8 1/3 innings. Samardzija only walked six batters in his 32 innings of work, but he allowed so many hits that the opposition owns a .290 BA and a .329 OBP.
Enjoy!
In a game that can only be seen on television, Jeff Samardzija leads the White Sox against Ubaldo Jimenez and the Orioles. Due to the riots in town, Camden Yards will not allow fans into the game. Samardzija allowed just five walks so far in 2015, but has given up 28 hits in 27 innings. Jimenez showed some of his old wildness so far, walking seven in his first 15 2/3 innings.
The Astros finish their series with the Padres as Dallas Keuchel faces Andrew Cashner. Kuechel walks some batters, but he tends to strand them as opponents only have two extra-base hits, two doubles. Cashner owns a 2.06 ERA in San Diego for his career, walking just 1.9 batters per nine innings. Houston will be without Jed Lowrie for a while, astros/2015/04/28/jonathan-villar-promoted-jed-lowrie-to-dl/#31931101=0″>as he torn a thumb ligament.
Felix Hernandez takes on Wandy Rodriguez as the Mariners battle Texas. Since the start of 2014, King Felix allowed a .197/.243/.298 slash line. Batters can’t do anything well against him. Rodriguez didn’t pitch that well in his 2015 debut, but held the Angels to a 2 for 13 with runners on base.
Enjoy!
Corey Kluber pitched one of his rare bad games as the White Sox win 6-0 their AL Central rivals, the Indians. Kluber showed his usual good control, striking out six and walking on in six innings, but the White Sox hit him hard, connecting for 13 hits, five of those for extra bases.
Meanwhile, Jeff Samardzija allowed the Indians to put the ball in play, and managed six shutout innings. Cleveland continues to time their hits poorly, going 0 for 10 with runners in scoring position.
Happy Opening Day!
The Blue Jays and Yankees kick things off in the Bronx as Drew Hutchison faces Masahiro Tanaka. Hutchison is an interesting choice for opening day on baseball’s biggest stage. He posted impressive three-true outcomes at all levels of the minor leagues, and in his first season in the majors. His MLB ERA has not reflected that success, however. With men on base, he allowed a .481 slugging percentage, versus .380 with the bases empty. He giving up long hits when they do the most damage. That may be a maturity issue, but at seasonal age 24 the Blue Jays put him in the role of an ace. Tanaka plays with an iffy elbow. He says his velocity won’t be back this year. That’s okay, as plenty of pitchers found success with slower stuff and deception.
I very much like the AL Central this season, and the Twins at the Tigers is a bit of a David versus Goliath game. The Twins should be better this season as they send Phil Hughes against David Price. Hughes found his control in 2014, walking just 16 batters in 209 2/3 innings, fitting into the Twins philosophy perfectly. At the same time, he lowered his home run rate as well. Price turned into a work horse, logging 248 1/3 innings for the Rays and Tigers in 2014. That’s 24 more inning that he ever threw before in the regular season. He struck out 9.8 per nine innings, over one K per 9 IP better than his career average.
Max Scherzer makes his Washington debut as Bartolo Colon leads the Mets against the Nationals. Colon will be 42 in a few weeks, but managed to throw nearly 400 innings over the last two seasons. He still commands the strike zone, walking just 59 batters in that time frame. Only Price has a better walk rate since the start of 2013. Scherzer uses his power pitching to keep his ERA low. Combined with a high scoring Detroit lineup, he owns the highest winning percentage in the majors over the last two seasons.
While there was plenty of hype about the Cubs Sunday night, the White Sox are also a greatly improved team. Jeff Samardzija leads the south siders into Kansas City to face Yordano Ventura. Samardzija was part of the failed Oakland plan of revamping their rotation to make the playoffs. The Samardzija, like Jon Lester, pitched well, but was not supported. He gives the White Sox a solid front three in the rotation. Ventura signed a nice extension, making him a millionaire and helping the Royals control costs. A right-handed pitcher, he exhibited a reverse platoon advantage so far in his career.
The best pitching matchup of the day might be Jered Weaver against Felix Hernandez in Seattle. The Mariners improved once again and look ready to take the AL West crown from the Angels. Despite an off-year for Weaver in 2014, he still managed an 18-9 record. His 27 home runs allowed were a career high, but starting the season in Seattle should lessen that weakness. King Felix turned in the most innings and lowest ERA of his career in 2014. He held batters to a .231 OBP at home last season.
James Shields begins his Padres career in Los Angeles against Clayton Kershaw. (I supposed having to face Kershaw a number of times during a season would be a reason not to sign with the Padres.) Shields pitched well for the Royals in his two years there, making the Wil Myers trade seem better in retrospect. Myers will be behind Shields in the outfield today. Kershaw is the best in the game right now. He led the NL in ERA four years in a row, the last two seasons with ERAs under 2.00. He struck out nearly five times as many as he walked, and is very stingy with the home run ball.
The Indians extended their new ace, Corey Kluber, and he opens the season in Houston against Dallas Keuchel. Kluber, by the way, is not young. He plays this season as a 29-year-old, making him more of a late bloomer. His 2014 season combined stamina (three complete games), power (269 K), and support (18-9 record) to make him the highlight of the Cleveland season. Keuchel had a lower level break-out year, posting a 2.93 ERA, and helped the Astros improve by 19 games.
Finally, playoff hero Madison Bumgarner leads the Giants into Arizona to face Josh Collmenter. Bumgarner made six starts and a five inning relief appearance in the playoffs. His strikeout rate was lower than during the regular season, but he allowed just one walk per nine innings pitched, and help the opposition to a .219 slugging percentage. Opponents were just 2 for 24 against him with runners in scoring position. Collmenter had his first full season of play since 2011. He allows the ball to be put in play, but keeps his walks low so the hits don’t do too much damage.
Enjoy!
The Chicago White Sox solidified their pitching staff Monday night:
Just like that, the Sox filled two big holes with A’s starter Jeff Samardzija and Yankees closer David Robertson in one of the craziest nights in franchise history.
Here is the Samardzija deal:
Apparently the leaking didn’t hurt the Sox’s chances in either of their moves. Hahn gave up infielder Marcus Semien and pitcher Chris Bassitt for Samardzija, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.
Siemen is a middle infielder approaching his prime who posted an excellent OBP in the minors and has some pop. Bassit doesn’t look that promising to me. His minor league K-rate is decent, but not his control. There also may be a third player involved. Oakland just keeps stocking up on near prime players. I expect their rebuild to be a short one.
The Sox reportedly agreed to terms on a four-year, $46 million deal with free-agent closer David Robertson.
It seems like a reasonable amount of money, but I just don’t trust closers to deliver long term. The Yankees deal with Andrew Miller makes more sense. They are similar pitchers, so it will be interesting four years from now to see which team was right.
A win today keeps the Pirates hopes of an NL Central title alive as Francisco Liriano takes on the Reds and Alfredo Simon. The two starter have nearly identical ERAs, 3.32 for Liriano, 3.34 for Simon, and both lost 10 games. Simon, however, won 15 games while Liriano won just seven. It’s just another example of how the team context can effect won-lost records of pitchers. It’s also an important game in the race for the NL Batting championship, as Justin Morneau, Josh Harrison, and Andrew McCutchen are separated by five points.
The Royals also need a win to guarantee that Sunday matters in the AL Central race. Danny Duffy faces the White Sox and John Danks. Duffy appears to have avoided a serious injury, as the time off after feeling tightness in his shoulder worked. Duffy came back to throw six shutout innings against the Indians his last time out, and gives the Royals an excellent ace going into the playoffs. Danks allowed just three runs in 13 innings against the Royals this season despite walking eight batters. Since the Royals are last in the AL in walks, that’s no mean feat.
Oakland will see if one of their big trades pays off as Jeff Samardzija takes on Derek Holland and the Rangers, a win putting Oakland in the playoffs. Samardzija allowed fewer walks and more home runs since joining the Athletics, the result being an ERA in line with his Cubs numbers. He still can’t win as much as he should, however, as he is only 5-5 with Oakland despite a 2.92 ERA. Holland allowed zero home runs and just four walks in 34 1/3 innings since returning from the disable list.
The Cardinals send Lance Lynn against Wade Miley as they try to wrap up the NL Central title. A win would guarantee at least a tie for the division. Lynn owns a 2.14 ERA since the All-Star break, but just a 5-4 record to go with that impressive run prevention. He has allowed five unearned runs in that time, 20% of his total. Miley owns a 5.72 ERA at home versus 3.17 on the road. He might want to depart the team like Brandon McCarthy did.
Finally, C.J. Wilson battles James Paxton as the Angels try to eliminate the Mariners from the playoff picture. There will be scoreboard watching in that game as the Oakland game starts an hour earlier. Wilson owns a 5.62 ERA on the road, while Paxton comes in at 2.25 at home.
I like the pitching match-ups to extend the wild card race into Sunday.
Enjoy!
The Orioles are just two games down in the loss column for best record in the American League as they open their penultimate series of the season at Yankee Stadium. Wei-Yin Chen faces Michael Pineda. A win by Chen would give him 17 for the season and tie him for second with Corey Kluber and Max Scherzer. With just six walks issued this season, Pineda holds opponents to a .240 OBP.
The final series this season between the Astros and the Rangers features two pitchers with a handful of starts and low ERAs. Last season rookie Nick Tropeano takes on Derek Holland. Tropeano was a high strikeout, low walk pitcher in the minors. He struck out nine and walked four in 10 innings, so half of that worked in the majors. Holland has not allowed a home run in 27 1/3 inning and gave up just three runs.
The Oakland Athletics can’t catch the Angels as they open their series by the bay, but the Athletics can try to knock the Angels off the top spot in the AL. C.J. Wilson faces Jeff Samardzija. Wilson’s OBP goes from .328 at home to .366 on the road. Samardzija for the season walked just 43 batters in 205 2/3 innings, easily the best single season rate of his career, and well below his overall career rate of 3.3 BB per 9 IP.
Finally, the Dodgers magic number to clinch the NL West is three as they open a three-game series against the Giants in Los Angeles. The Giants need to win two of the three games to stay alive in the race for the division championship, but in reality they need to sweep and get some help to win the division. Old veterans Jake Peavy and Dan Haren open the series. Peavy owns a 2.16 ERA since joining the Giants, as he greatly cut down on his home runs allowed compared to pitching with the Red Sox. Haren pitched better down the stretch, with a 2.47 ERA in his last eight games. He walked just eight batters and allowed 34 hits in his last 47 1/3 innings.
Enjoy!
The afternoon games concentrate on the NL West race. The Dodgers and Rockies start the contests with Carlos Frias facing Jorge De La Rosa. Frias allowed three home runs in his 19 relief innings, but with good walk and K numbers. He did not allow a run in his six innings as a starter. de la Rosa pitched much better in Colorado than on the road with a 3.30 ERA at Coors versus 5.24 away.
In Arizona, Madison Bumgarner takes on Andrew Chafin. The Giants ace set a personal single season high this year with 204 strikeouts. Chafin had a successful MLB debut, allowing no runs in five innings in his first MLB start.
The Royals draw a tough opponent as Chris Sale and the White Sox battle Yordano Ventura. Sale qualifies for the ERA title, but his low innings pitched probably keep him from winning the Cy Young award. He has struck out 192 in 163 innings. Ventura holds opponents to a .204 BA with runners in scoring position this season.
Milwaukee needs a win as they send Mike Fiers against the first place Cardinals and ace Adam Wainwright. Fiers owns a 1.84 ERA on the strength of just 33 hits allowed in 53 2/3 innings, thanks to a high strikeout rate. Wainwright would own a 19-9 record for the second season in a row with a win.
The Angels can clinch a tie for the AL West Championship with a win over Seattle, and an outright win if Oakland also loses. James Paxton stands in the way of LAnaheim, which sends C.J. Wilson to the mound. Opponents are just 5 for 50 against Paxton with runners in scoring position. Wilson allowed the Mariners nine runs in 13 1/3 innings this season.
Finally, Derek Holland and the Rangers try to spoil the Athletics run at a wild card as Texas faces Jeff Samardzija. Holland has yet to issue a walk in three starts since coming off the disabled list. Samardzija continues his habit with the the Cubs of pitching well but not picking up wins, mostly due to poor offensive support. The A’s have scored three runs or less six times for Jeff.
Enjoy!
Pittsburgh and Detroit finish up their interleague series early Thursday afternoon as Francisco Liriano faces Max Scherzer. Liriano maintained his great strikeout rate from 2013, but his walks and home runs allowed rates rose this season, as did his ERA. Scherzer has a nice Fibonacci pair of seasons, 21 wins in 2013 and 13 in 2014, against just seven losses combined in the two seasons. The mathematician part of me wants that eighth loss. 🙂
Jeff Samardzija and James Shields battle in Kansas City as the Royals try to take three of four from the AL’s best team. Samardzija is 3-1 in seven starts with Oakland after winning just two games in 17 starts with the Cubs, despite a slightly better ERA with Chicago. Shields good luck started on 7/7, with a 1.63 ERA in his last seven starts.
The Nationals go for another win at Citi Field as Stephen Strasburg takes on Dillon Gee. Washington won the last 10 games at the park. Strasburg continues his odd season, with a high K rate and a high BA allowed (.260). Gee is the opposite, with an okay K rate but a .217 BA allowed.
Enjoy!
The Giants and Mets finish their series at noon as Tim Hudson takes on Dillon Gee.
The Reds send twelve game winner Alfredo Simon against AL Cy Young Corey Kluber as the battle of Ohio begins in Cleveland.
Max Scherzer and the Tigers bring a three-game winning streak to Yankee Stadium as they take on the rejuvenated Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy is 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA since joining the Yankees.
The battle of the Beltway and a potential World Series matchup gets underway in Washington as Kevin Gausman leads the Orioles against Tanner Roark and the Nationals.
The Rays continue their tough stretch as Alex Cobb battles the revamped Athletics and Jeff Samardzija.
Finally, if you love LA, you’ll love the battle between Garrett Richards of LAnaheim and Zack Greinke of the actual Los Angeles based team.
Enjoy!