Tag Archives: Adam Frazier

April 21, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

  • 0.281 — Tim Anderson batting against Zach Plesac.
  • 0.277 — Adam Frazier batting against Taylor Hearn.
  • 0.266 — Ty France batting against Taylor Hearn.
  • 0.266 — Luis Arraez batting against Zack Greinke.
  • 0.265 — Starling Marte batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.261 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.260 — Frank Schwindel batting against Bryse Wilson.
  • 0.259 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Michael Pineda.
  • 0.259 — Corey Seager batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.258 — Brandon Nimmo batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.258 — J.P. Crawford batting against Taylor Hearn.
  • 0.258 — Alex Verdugo batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.258 — Josh Bell batting against Zach Davies.

Due to playing in the same division, Anderson sees the young Plesac quite often. So far, Plesac got somewhat better of the deal as their encounters resulted in a 4 for 18 with no walks and five strikeouts. Two of Anderson’s hits were home runs, however.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.281, 0.708 — Tim Anderson batting against Zach Plesac.
  • 0.277, 0.673 — Adam Frazier batting against Taylor Hearn.
  • 0.266, 0.673 — Luis Arraez batting against Zack Greinke.
  • 0.261, 0.664 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.259, 0.663 — Corey Seager batting against Marco Gonzales.
  • 0.265, 0.662 — Starling Marte batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
  • 0.258, 0.661 — Alex Verdugo batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.259, 0.656 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Michael Pineda.
  • 0.266, 0.655 — Ty France batting against Taylor Hearn.
  • 0.257, 0.653 — Rafael Devers batting against Kevin Gausman.

It’s a very similar list with Anderson and Frazier the consensus double down choices. Note that the probabilities remain low and as the drop in offense pulls down the overall ability to collect a hit.

There is a light schedule today as teams getaway, with most games in the afternoon. Get your picks in early!

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 16, 2022

Best Batter Today

Leave a reply

Juan Soto of the Nationals stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after collecting two singles and two walks in a 7-2 win over the Pirates. He stands ten points ahead of Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, who doubled in five trips to the plate as St. Louis beats Milwaukee 10-1. His teammate, Tyler O’Neill, moves back into the top five with a three for five game, including a double. O’Neill ranks fourth.

Matt Olson of the Braves holds third place as he draws two walks in a 5-2 win over the Padres. MacKenzie Gore of the Padres made his MLB debut, getting his first start on the mound. He pitched well, but did not figure in the decision.

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. of the Blue Jays rounds out the top five as he hit his fifth home run of the season. He added a single and a walk as well. He’s slugging .900 on the season.

The best game score on Friday belongs to Francisco Lindor of the Mets. He collected two home runs and two walks in five plate appearances for an 81. He beats out Adam Frazier of the Mariners who collected four hits and missed the cycle by a home run. Lindor is off to a great start this season, with a .296/.457/.704 slash line. That’s more of what the Mets expected from the star shortstop.

November 28, 2021

North Goes Fazier

Leave a reply

The Mariners trade two minor leaguers to the Padres for second baseman Adam Frazier. The Mariners like his ability to put the ball in play:

But Frazier puts the ball in play, having never struck out more than 75 times in a season. The Mariners had eight players appear in more than 90 games last season and all struck out at least 99 times.

“Adam, to me, is one of the better strike-zone managers in baseball,” Dipoto said. “He’s got great contact skills. In an era where strikeouts are prevalent, he doesn’t strike out. His strikeout rates would be good in any era, really.”

SeattlePI.com

Frazier’s strength as a hitter is getting on base, the last three seasons improving his walk rate to go along with a good batting average. He’s one season away from free agency. The Mariners with Frazier a potential short term player, did not give up too much. Ray Kerr is a high strikeout reliever who is already well into his prime, useable but certainly not a prospect. Corey Rosier raked in his first season at A ball in 2021, seasonal age 21. He is a nice prospect.

The Mariners add a good offensive and defensive player who doesn’t cost that much gives then an element they lacked in 2021. The Padres get a pitcher they can use now, and an outfielder who might be very good in a year or two. Both teams win.

September 17, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Frazier turned out to be a disappointing acquisition for the Padres, but overall on the season he presents a good opportunity for hits in a game.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.304, 0.732 — Trea Turner batting against Luis Castillo.
  • 0.291, 0.727 — Ketel Marte batting against Brandon Bielak.
  • 0.277, 0.724 — Tim Anderson batting against Taylor Hearn.
  • 0.301, 0.717 — Bo Bichette batting against Michael Pineda.
  • 0.303, 0.715 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Keegan Akin.
  • 0.307, 0.714 — Adam Frazier batting against Miles Mikolas.
  • 0.303, 0.714 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Michael Pineda.
  • 0.299, 0.714 — Jose Iglesias batting against Keegan Akin.
  • 0.300, 0.713 — Salvador Perez batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.286, 0.711 — Starling Marte batting against Oliver Ortega.

Turner tops this list and is the consensus first pick, with Frazier the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 16, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Log5 does not take into account the home field for the game. The Padres are playing in Colorado this evening, so this list may underestimate how well San Diego batters will hit this evening. Opponents against Senzatela in Colorado have a .274/.319/.393 slash line, however, so he pitches much better at home.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.350, 0.745 — Adam Frazier batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.305, 0.738 — Tim Anderson batting against Frankie Montas.
  • 0.278, 0.729 — Michael Brantley batting against Carlos Hernandez.
  • 0.331, 0.727 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.287, 0.721 — Trea Turner batting against Steven Brault.
  • 0.284, 0.719 — Luis Arraez batting against Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.323, 0.715 — Eric Hosmer batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.292, 0.710 — Starling Marte batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.317, 0.707 — Jake Cronenworth batting against Antonio Senzatela.
  • 0.315, 0.704 — Manny Machado batting against Antonio Senzatela.

Frazier is hitting .269/.300/.328 since joining the Padres. In his short career at Coors Field he hits .405/.421/.649. The two systems agree on him as the top choice, with Tatis the consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 29, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Frazier, a new acquistion by the Padres, owns a .355 BABIP this season, and faces Freeland, who gets hit for a .315 BABIP.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.344, 0.736 — Adam Frazier batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.297, 0.734 — Trea Turner batting against Vincent Velasquez.
  • 0.291, 0.731 — Trea Turner batting against Zack Wheeler.
  • 0.307, 0.730 — David Fletcher batting against Frankie Montas.
  • 0.315, 0.729 — Bo Bichette batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.282, 0.727 — Tim Anderson batting against Carlos Hernandez.
  • 0.327, 0.725 — Buster Posey batting against David Price.
  • 0.325, 0.725 — Jean Segura batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.299, 0.722 — Jose Iglesias batting against Frankie Montas.
  • 0.309, 0.714 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.290, 0.710 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
  • 0.304, 0.707 — Donovan Solano batting against David Price.

The Nationals and Phillies play a doubleheader today, so be careful picking from those games. Turner was removed from the game Tuesday night due to a positive COVID-19 test, but he is not on the illjured list. I took the list out to the top twelve in case he is not allowed to play today.

Frazier is the unanimous first pick. Bichette and Posey are tied for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 26, 2021

Best Batter Today

Leave a reply

Juan Soto of the Nationals once again tops the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He drew two walks Sunday in a 5-4 Orioles win as the Orioles get a series sweep. Matt Olson of the Athletics sits second after a single and a home run against the Mariners. That wasn’t enough as Seattle wins 4-3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays takes third place as he singles and walks in a 5-4 Mets win. Manny Machado of the Padres singles and homers, but the Marlins take the game 9-2. Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates singles twice against the Giants, but San Francisco takes the game 6-1.

With the Adam Frazier trade, the Pirates no longer have two hitters in the top 15. The Padres now have three hitters in the top 15.

Chris Taylor of the Dodgers posts the highest game score of the day, a 79. He collects three hits in four at bats, including two home runs as Los Angeles beats Colorado 3-2.

July 25, 2021

Down South Goes Frazier

Leave a reply

ESPN reports that the San Diego Padres will acquire Adam Frazier from the Pirates:

In exchange, the Pirates are acquiring right-hander Michell Miliano, shortstop Tucupita Marcano and outfielder Jack Suwinski, a source told ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.

Frazier entered Sunday hitting .327 — the second-best average in Major League Baseball — with four home runs and 32 RBIs.

ESPN.com

Miliano relieves and strikes out 17.7 batters per nine innings at two levels of A ball this season. His seasonal age is 21. Marcano has not done much in 50 PA at the MLB level. In the minors his slash line stands at .278/.359/.361, so he profiles as a lead-off hitter, or maybe a number nine hitter with the pitcher batting eighth. Suwinski plays 2021 as a twenty two year old, and owns a .269/.398/.551 line at AA, although his career minor league numbers are not that impressive. If Suwinski’s improvement in 2021 turns out to be real, this looks like a good deal for both teams. It’s a great deal for the Padres as they try to make the playoffs and go deep once they reach them.

June 29, 2021

Best Batter Today

Leave a reply

The top three players in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings remained the same as their teams were idle. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays, Fernando Tatis Jr.of the Padres, and Matt Olson of the Athletics all had the night off. Carlos Correa of the Astros remains in fourth place as he goes one for three with a walk and a hit by pitch in a 9-7 Orioles win. That game saw a wild ninth inning in which the Orioles scored five times in the top of the inning, to break a 4-4 tie, while the Astros came back with three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning. Correa getting plunked started that rally.

Adam Frazier of the Pirates moves into the fifth slot, dropping his teammate Bryan Reynolds to sixth. Frazier had the day off, so it was Reynolds going one for four that caused the change. Pirates fans should be very happy the team employees two top hitters, and maybe the turnaround for the franchise is closer than they think.

The best game score of the night goes to Kyle Schwarber of the Nationals, three for five with two home runs for a score of 77. Schwarber now owns 15 home runs in June. He moves up to tenth in the ranking.

June 28, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Marte is headed home for an MRI, and may go on the illjured list. Keep an eye out for that. Otherwise, it looks like it should be a good offensive day for the Pirates. Bryan Reynolds owns a twelve game hit streak.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.362, 0.776 — Ketel Marte batting against Wade LeBlanc.
  • 0.335, 0.760 — Michael Brantley batting against Tom Eshelman.
  • 0.358, 0.749 — Adam Frazier batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.311, 0.732 — Tim Anderson batting against Kenta Maeda.
  • 0.338, 0.726 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.304, 0.721 — Raimel Tapia batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.290, 0.720 — Trea Turner batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
  • 0.272, 0.711 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Daniel Duffy.
  • 0.300, 0.711 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Tom Eshelman.
  • 0.277, 0.709 — Nick Castellanos batting against Spencer Howard.
  • 0.302, 0.708 — Salvador Perez batting against Garrett Richards.

It is highly unlikely Marte plays, so I am going with Brantley as the top choice today on the spreadsheet. Adam Fraizer, however is the consensus first pick, with Brantley as the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 27, 2021

Beat the Steak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

The Blue Jays play a doubleheader at the Yankees and the Rockies play a doubleheader at the Mets, so be careful picking from those games.

Here are the NN picks:

Mercedes is starting to get enough plate appearances to work his way into the top ten. Frazier is the consensus first pick, Anderson the consensus second pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 26, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Once again, Log5 ranks Adam Frazier high on the list. Both this season and over the last three season, he tends to put the ball in play, leading to most of his OBP coming from hits.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.324, 0.743 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Drew Smyly.
  • 0.309, 0.737 — Trea Turner batting against Jeff Hoffman.
  • 0.340, 0.730 — Adam Frazier batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.318, 0.728 — Nick Castellanos batting against Joe Ross.
  • 0.293, 0.715 — Ketel Marte batting against Johnny Cueto.
  • 0.310, 0.714 — Buster Posey batting against Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.289, 0.714 — Jose Iglesias batting against Dane Dunning.
  • 0.307, 0.714 — Jesse Winker batting against Joe Ross.
  • 0.265, 0.709 — Tim Anderson batting against John Gant.
  • 0.291, 0.704 — Alex Verdugo batting against Drew Smyly.

Bogaerts wins out here with a higher three year and one year hit average than Frazier. They are the consensus 1-2 picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 25, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Frazier’s BA stands at .335 for the season, as he stuck out about 10% of the time. That’s low for this era.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.306, 0.734 — Trea Turner batting against Tyler Mahle.
  • 0.300, 0.729 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Charlie Morton.
  • 0.314, 0.719 — Adam Frazier batting against Jake Arrieta.
  • 0.295, 0.707 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Steven Matz.
  • 0.300, 0.705 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Steven Matz.
  • 0.266, 0.702 — Harold Castro batting against Aaron Civale.
  • 0.243, 0.701 — Tim Anderson batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.313, 0.700 — Joey Wendle batting against Brad Keller.
  • 0.262, 0.700 — Jose Iglesias batting against Hyeon-jong Yang.
  • 0.272, 0.700 — Michael Brantley batting against Clayton Kershaw.

Turner comes out on top on the NN because he is more consistent long and short term, with his hit average parameters at .296 for 2021 and .291 for 2019-2021. Frazier is at .302 for 2021, .259 for the three season period. They tie for the consensus first pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 25, 2017

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.334 — Adam Frazier batting against Bartolo Colon
0.330 — Chris Owings batting against Zach Davies
0.330 — David Peralta batting against Zach Davies
0.328 — Josh Harrison batting against Bartolo Colon
0.319 — Brandon Drury batting against Zach Davies
0.311 — Matt Kemp batting against Ivan Nova
0.310 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Zach Davies
0.305 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nick Martinez
0.304 — Brandon Phillips batting against Ivan Nova
0.302 — Buster Posey batting against Eddie Butler

Adam Frazier has not played much, just 66 games in his rookie year of 2016 and 27 games this season. He hit consistently well, however, and this season owns a .370/.458/.500 slash line and .328/.397/.445 for his career. That’s in 267 PA, so both his 2017 and three year hit averages are being heavily adjusted toward the league averages at this point. Still, against a pitcher who is usually throwing over the plate, he makes a good match-up.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.330, 0.739 — David Peralta batting against Zach Davies.
0.305, 0.737 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nick Martinez.
0.286, 0.735 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.296, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.296, 0.733 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.302, 0.732 — Buster Posey batting against Eddie Butler.
0.330, 0.731 — Chris Owings batting against Zach Davies.
0.334, 0.731 — Adam Frazier batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.328, 0.730 — Josh Harrison batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.304, 0.728 — Brandon Phillips batting against Ivan Nova.

David Peralta bubbles to the top of the NN rankings, with Frazier dropping to eighth. If Frazier keeps hitting well, we should see him moving up steadily. Davies is giving up a ton of hits this season, even in games where he collects a high number of strikeouts. For today, Peralta is the NN pick and the consensus pick. Fair warning, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 29
Gorkys Hernandez 23
Ivan Nova 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Raul Mondesi 23
Dexter Fowler 22
Johnny Cueto 21
Kyle Higashioka 20
JaCoby Jones 19
Justin Upton 19
Conor Gillaspie 19
Austin Romine 19
Matt Harvey 19
Scott Feldman 19
Tyler Anderson 18
Adam Rosales 17
Patrick Kivlehan 16
Daniel Straily 16
Greg Bird 15
Eddie Rosario 15
Christian Arroyo 15
Carlos Sanchez 15
Kyle Hendricks 14
Julio Teheran 14
Mike Foltynewicz 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Yasiel Puig 14
Zack Greinke 14
Avisail Garcia 13
Raimel Tapia 13
Travis D'Arnaud 13
Freddy Galvis 13
Luke Maile 12
Nick Castellanos 12
Bartolo Colon 12
Carlos Correa 12
Leonys Martin 12
Mark Canha 12
Ty Blach 12
Brandon McCarthy 12
Roberto Perez 12
Chad Kuhl 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Elvis Andrus 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Brock Stassi 11
Starling Marte 11
Craig Gentry 11
Robert Gsellman 11
Austin Barnes 11
Ezequiel Carrera 11
Michael Wacha 11
Danny Espinosa 10
Yandy Diaz 10
Seth Smith 10
Matt Garza 10
Alex Avila 10
Adam Jones 10
Jose Ramirez 10
Stuart Turner 10
Martin Maldonado 10
Eric Hosmer 10
Lonnie Chisenhall 10
Thomas Koehler 10
Scott Van Slyke 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Emilio Bonifacio 10
Joe Panik 10
Jered Weaver 10
Scott Schebler 10

Good luck!